多边投资担保机构在促进私营部门融资发展基础设施方面所能发挥的

1、I N S U R I N G I N V E S T M E N T S E N S U R I N G O P P O R T U N I T I E S 1990-2002年发展中国家有私营部门参与的基础设施投资年发展中国家有私营部门参与的基础设施投资Investment in Infrastructure Projects with private participation in Developing countries, 1990-2002(单位：10亿美元，$ billion)27.739.645.657.182.8127.5109.672.790.567.647.318.118

2、.50204060801001201401990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002风险到底如何风险到底如何？How real are the risks?v 最近投资者的经验包括：私人资产的重新获得政府责任欺骗原来政府给予的特许收回F新项目融资困难由于立法和法律框架不足造成合同执行失望v 随着次级主权伙伴介入的增加，风险领域扩大v Recent investor experience includes:repossession of privatized assetsdefaults on governmen

3、t obligationsrevocation of concessions given by previous governmentsfinancing difficulty for new projectscontract frustration due to inadequate legal & regulatory frameworksv Risk arena widening, as sub-sovereign partners increasingly involved前景如何前景如何Going forward投资需求巨大(电力，水，等等)公共投资稳定甚至减少国际援助在总体

4、融资中占较小比重如何填补缺口？私营部门？纳税者税收？综合上述几种， 即PPP?Investment needs are enormous (power, water, etc.) !Public funding stable or even decreasingInternational aid is (and probably will remain) a small percentage of the overall financing packageThus how to fill the gap? Private sector? Taxpayers?Tariffs? A combina

5、tion, i.e. PPPs?在多部门吸引私营投资需要减少风险在多部门吸引私营投资需要减少风险 Attracting private investment in a number of sectors will require risk mitigation 货币风险 美元债务和地方货币收入法律风险 法律框架未能实施或未经实验支付风险 政府未能如期支付次级主权风险 投资风险常常发生在次级主权层次l可负担性风险 私营部门投资者很难单独投资Currency risk Dollar debt and local currency earningsRegulatory risk Regulatory

6、 framework not implemented or untestedPayment risk Government fails to pay amounts dueSub-sovereign risk Investments often at sub-sovereign levelAffordability riskPrivate operators and consumers will not do it all; role of public investments and subsidies减少法规和政策风险减少法规和政策风险Mitigating regulatory/polic

7、y risk比工具更重要: 更好的合同:合同中包括对法规的清楚描述尽可能明确税收澄清申述过程快速仲裁 时间限制如果未达成协议明确退出支付通过减小风险手段部分风险担保 ，合同违约保险可减轻法规风险v More important than instruments: better contracts:Clear guidance to the regulator in contractSpecify tariff formulas as much as feasibleClarify appeal processFast track arbitration; timelineSpecified e

8、xit payments if no agreement can be reachedv Through mitigation instrumentsPartial credit guarantees, partial risk guarantees, breach of contract coverage can mitigate regulatory risk保险可减轻一些表现风险保险可减轻一些表现风险Guarantees can mitigate some of the performance risks税收承诺立法过程 不连接政策政府未预期支付终止数量Tariff commitment

9、s Regulatory process Disconnection policiesNon payments by Governments of amounts due (e.g. Output Based Assistance)Termination amounts担保：一种风险管理的工具担保：一种风险管理的工具Guarantees: a risk management tool 提高信用提高信用 提高项目的总体风险回报率 减少借款人对准备金的要求 降低融资成本增强信心增强信心 对东道国政府的干预起到威慑作用 给予投资者投资于新的边缘市场的信心 调解投资争端稳定业务环境稳定业务环境 为商业运营提供稳定的环境Credit enhancement improves overall risk-return profile of the project may reduce provisioning requirements for lenders may lower cost of financingConfidence deterrent against host government interference gives investors confidence in investing in n