美股商业与专业服务业发行指数抵押贷款良好但波动性在上升

1、COREEquity Research8 August 2019For Your Information ServicesGood July for Issuance, Index, Mortgage; but Volatility picking upCredit Issuance (MCO/SPGI): July issuance was up +28% y/y, benefiting from healthy supply and easy comps U.S. IG (+65%) and HY (+229%) were the highlights when compared to a

2、 slow Jul18. August is seasonally one of the slowest months of the year; and last year September made up almost 45% of 3Q supply. so we stick with our +5-6% 3Q Ratings forecast for SPGI and MCO. Yes, this estimate looks conservative in light of strong July and healthy funding conditions (low rates;

3、tight spreads), but recent market volatility highlights how quickly funding windows could shift. Big picture though, we think 2Q results and guidance raises from MCO & SPGIINDUSTRY UPDATEU.S. Business & Professional ServicesNEUTRALUnchangedU.S. Business & Professional Services Manav Patn

4、aikmanav.pa BCI, USGregory Bardi, CFAhighlight the relative resiliency of their business ms. While we describe the ratinggregory. BCI, USRyan Leonardagencies as closet cyclicals (high beta names in times of market volatility); we viewany pullback as an opportufor two of the highest quality names in

5、our universe.Index & ETF AUMs (MSCI/SPGI): Even with recent volatility, its been a good year so far for equity markets (SPX +15%; ACWX +6% through 8/6); will ETF inflows, which have been tempered YTD, start to increase? For MSCI, if June-end AUM of $819B stayed flat for the rest of the year, gro

6、wth would be +8%/+14% in 3Q/4Q. In terms of other moving pieces: a) subscription remains robust (+11% for MSCI; +18% for SPGI in 2Q); b) derivative trading volume was a modest drag for SPGI in 2Q (-5%), but is seeing a pick-up in volatility in July (e.g., CME equity indices +13%; CBOE index options

7、+3%).U.S. Financial Services Hiring (FDS/SPGI): Steady trends in July, with hiring up +2.1%, and buy-side (+3.6% in Jun) outpacing sell-side hiring (+1%). we remain EW on FDS. FDS F3Q (end-May) saw an ASV growth guide-down (from +5.5%-6.5% to 5%) driven by a CTS contract cancellation and weaker-than

8、-expected Analytics performance YTD. SPGI Market Intelligence similarly saw some slowdown in Desktop (+3% vs. +6% in 1Q; user count +11%) driven by industry/headcount pressures; but Credit Risk Solutions (+11%) and Data Management Solutions (+16%) remain strong.Mortgage Originations (EFX/TRU/FICO):

9、Lower-for longer rate benefits starting to take hold MBA now forecasting +9% growth in 2019 (vs. -1% forecast to start the year) driven by refi boomlet (+16%) and steady purchase activity (+6%); 3Q +20%, 4Q +5%. By comparison, EFXs forecasts look relatively conservative (slight decline in inquiries

10、for 2019; +3%/+4% 3Q/4Q) and a potential source of upside but we also note that the bureaus typically generate more revenue per mortgage on a purchase origination (more data/pulls required). EFX has the larger mortgage mix (19%); but TRU (<10% mortgage) should see a benefit as well and its +8% or

11、ganic growth in U.S. Financials highlights healthy market conditions and strong innovation momentum.ryan.le BCI, USBarclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that thefirm may

12、have aof interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investorsshould consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 32.Restricted - Internal获取报告1、2、3、每周群内7+报告；当日华尔街日报、学人4、

13、行研报告均为公开利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫关注 回复：加入“起点财经”群Barclays | For Your 'Information Services'CONTENTSCREDIT ISSUANCE TRACKER & COMMENTARY3July issuance (+28% y/y): Healthy supply and easy comp; Sept will be key3U.S. IG Corps (+65% Jul; Flat YTD): Healthy start to 3Q4U.S. HY Corps (+229% Jul;

14、 +30% YTD): Relatively attractive funding vs. bank loans5U.S. CLOs (-7% Jul; -4% YTD): Slowing with leverage loan issuance6U.S. CMBS (-49% Jul; -11% YTD): Slow month7U.S. ABS (-15% Jul; +7% YTD): Healthy supply, tough comp8U.S. Munis (+13% Jul; Flat YTD): Potential source of upside9Euro IG corps (Fl

15、at Jul; +18% YTD): Strong July by historical standards10European HY (+76% Jul; -12% YTD): Signs of life11U.S. Historical Issuance12International Historical Issuance13BARCLAYS/S&P FORECAST +/- FLAT ISSUANCE IN 201914We m2% Ratings growth for SPGI/MCO14.as S&P is forecasting +1.4% volume growt

16、h in 201914.our Barclays Credit team is pointing to +1%15. and MCO continues pointing to flat to -5% declines16More on our constructive long-term view of issuance16WHY WE THINK MSCI/INDEX REMAINS WELL POSITIONED18ABF (20-25% of mix) active-to-passive trends in its favor18MSCI Index Subscription (35%

17、 of mix) remarkably consistent performance21Derivative Trading Volumes July Update22More takeaways from MSCI May HQ visit23FIN. INFO MIXED DEMAND BACKDROP IN 201925Securities industry seeing steady (slow) hiring growth25Buy side Healthy equity markets are a friend25Sell side 1% growth YTD26How resil

18、ient are our market data companies?27July employment (+164k; 3.7%): Slow as expected28CREDIT BUREAU DATA TRACKER29MBA Originations (Re: CBs): Refis driving 9% volume growth in 2019; 3Q +20%29Consumer Credit (EFX/TRU/FICO): Steady growth in May (+5%)30CALENDAR OF EVENTS31August 2019: Slow summer cale

19、ndar post-earnings318 August 20192Barclays | For Your 'Information Services'CREDIT ISSUANCE TRACKER & COMMENTARYJuly issuance (+28% y/y): Healthy supply and easy comp; Sept will be keyFIGURE 12019 Issuance vs. 2018 (in millions)2016201720182019y/y20162017 20182019y/y2016201720182019y/y20

20、182019y/y2016201720182019y/yy/yy/yy/yy/yFeb$113$92$109$1155%Feb$8$19$12$2169%Feb$5$4$5$730%Feb$39$25-36%Feb$2$9$16$13-14%19%-35%19%72%1st Qtr.$403$456$387$3901%1st Qtr.$32$80$63$59-6%1st Qtr.$16$15$19$17-13%1st Qtr.$107$63-41%1st Qtr.$7$20$33$30-10%-15%-22%31%65%May$190$163$91$10920%May$28$26$14$236

21、4%May$6$9$6$12100%May$44$25-43%May$5$10$12$10-13%-44%-46%-29%22%2nd Qtr.$399$348$336$291-13%2nd Qtr.$82$62$47$6846%2nd Qtr.$11$23$22$235%2nd Qtr.$135$76-44%2nd Qtr.$19$35$36$371%-3%-25%-6%3%Aug$118$103$71Aug$17$18$17Aug$5$11$5Aug$33Aug$6$12$14-31%-6%-55%17%3rd Qtr.$393$367$273$10465%3rd Qtr.$55$66$6

22、1$25229%3rd Qtr.$20$27$17$4-49%3rd Qtr.$84$2522%3rd Qtr.$20$31$32$9-7%-26%-8%-37%3%Nov$73$117$88Nov$15$26$6Nov$12$10$6Nov$29Nov$9$13$13-25%-77%-37%4%4th Qtr.$242$298$2024th Qtr.$47$67$184th Qtr.$29$29$194th Qtr.$824th Qtr.$27$34$28-32%-73%-35%-16%U.S. Non-Mortgage ABSU.S. Municipal2016201720182019y/

23、y20162017 20182019y/y2016201720182019y/y2016201720182019y/y2016201720182019y/yy/yy/yy/yy/yy/yJan$11$18$11$2191%Jan$26$36$22$2514%-39%-40%Feb$19$20$24$3129%Feb$32$23$18$2539%Feb 51 45 37 5345%Feb 2 8 3 415%Feb£2£5£4£532%20%-24%-18%-59%-21%Mar$13$27$34$29-15%Mar$43$33$26$273%26%-20

24、%1st Qtr.$43$65$69$8117%1st Qtr.$100$92$66$7717%1st Qtr. 167 174 156 1677%1st Qtr. 14 26 18 11-42%1st Qtr.£6£15£13£1620%6%-29%-10%-30%-11%Apr$14$24$23$4283%Apr$35$31$32$28-12%-4%3%May$25$26$33$26-21%May$42$39$35$23-35%May 73 70 44 5421%May 8 3 4 651%May£2£6£3£

25、6120%27%-9%-37%56%-56%Jun$16$22$31$25-21%Jun$48$40$33$343%44%-16%2nd Qtr.$56$72$87$936%2nd Qtr.$126$109$100$85-15%2nd Qtr. 164 148 122 16737%2nd Qtr. 29 19 18 18-2%2nd Qtr.£5£15£12£1750%22%-8%-18%-2%-24%Jul$23$17$27$23-15%Jul$29$25$27$3013%59%8%Aug$13$25$26Aug$47$37$34Aug 20 22 3

26、7Aug 2 0 1Aug£9£2£24%-9%70%na0%Sep$21$17$20Sep$40$29$2518%-14%3rd Qtr.$57$59$73$23-15%3rd Qtr.$115$92$86$3013%3rd Qtr. 97 96 131 350%3rd Qtr. 18 18 13 776%3rd Qtr.£19£17£15£4-9%24%-6%36%-28%-8%Oct$28$35$44Oct$54$39$3724%-6%Nov$14$27$27Nov$32$44$28Nov 41 55 49Nov 3

27、7 4Nov£3£6£3-2%-36%-11%-41%-60%Dec$8$10$8Dec$19$64$22-20%-66%4th Qtr.$50$72$784th Qtr.$105$147$874th Qtr. 98 95 794th Qtr. 9 26 74th Qtr.£6£13£68%-41%-17%-73%-58%Full Year 70 89 57 50-12%Full Year£35£60£46£5826%-36%-24%Source: Barclays Equity and Cre

28、dit Research, S&P, Moodys8 August 20193Full Year $1,436 $1,469 $1,198 -18% $1,163 -3% Full Year $216 $276 $189 -32% $190 1% Full Year $76 $94$77 -18%$71 -8%Dec$39$42$12 -71%Oct$131$138$102 -26%Sep$156$146$139 -5%Jul$118$119$63 -47%$104 65%Jun$87$84$106 27%$85 -20%Apr$122$101$138 37%$96 -30%Mar$1

29、35$145$122 -16%$1274%Jan$155$219$156 -29%$148 -5%U.S. Investment GradeFull Year 526 513 487 -5% 550 13%Full Year $446 $439 $338 -23% $380 12%Full Year $206$268$307 15%$240 -22%Dec 9 10 6 -42%Oct 48 29 24 -20%Sep 48 52 59 15%Jul 29 23 35 53% 35 0%Jun 25 54 35 -34% 73 106%Apr 66 24 42 73% 40 -5%Mar 81

30、 67 67 0% 53 -21%Jan 35 62 52 -16% 60 15%Euro Investment GradeDec£2£1£0 -63%Dec 1 6 0 -100%Oct£2£6£3 -55%Oct 5 13 3 -78%Sep£8£7£8 22%Sep 12 11 8 -25%Jul£2£8£5 -38% £4 -9%Jul 3 7 4 -41% 7 76%Jun£1£5£5 2%£8 53%Jun 5 9

31、 6 -37% 3 -49%Apr£2£5£4 -13% £4 2%Apr 16 7 9 23% 9 6%Mar£2£5£4 -19% £6 40%Mar 11 12 9 -29% 5 -44%Jan£2£5£5 8%£5 -4%Jan 1 6 65% 2 -68%GBP Investment GradePan-European High YieldFull Year $72 $119 $129 8%$123 -5%Full Year$408$418 2%Dec$10$9$6

32、 -33%Dec$9Dec$9$9$5 -44%Dec$19 $18$0 -100%Oct$8$12$9 -25%Oct$44Oct$8$10$8 -25%Oct$13 $23 $12 -47%Sep$8$10$8 -20%Sep$30Sep$9$9$4 -56%Sep$25 $37 $36 -2%Jul$6$9$10 11%$9 -7%Jul$21$25 22%Jul$6$7$8 14%$4 -49%Jul$13 $11$7 -32%$25 229%Jun$8$15 $13 -13% $10 -22%Jun$62$31 -50%Jun$2$11$12 9%$8 -33%Jun$22 $20

33、$15 -24%$27 82%Apr$6$10 $11 10%$16 45%Apr$29$20 -31%Apr$3$4$4 5%$3 -25%Apr$31 $16 $17 7%$18 1%Mar$4$9$11 17%$11 8%Mar$42$26 -38%Mar$8$9$9 8%$7 -24%Mar$18 $43 $27 -38%$22 -18%Jan$1$2$7 250% $5 -29%Jan$26$12 -54%Jan$3$2$5 167%$3 -38%Jan$6$19 $24 28%$17 -31%U.S. CLOsU.S. Leveraged LoansU.S. Non-Agency

34、CMBSU.S. High YieldBarclays | For Your 'Information Services'U.S. IG Corps (+65% Jul; Flat YTD): Healthy start to 3QFIGURE 2U.S. Investment Grade Corporates Issuance Summary ($B)Total Issuance ($bY/YYTD Issuance TracY/YNumber of DealsY/YAverage Deal SizeY/YNote: So mferences in isNote: For m

35、ore commentary on 2019 issuance forecasts, see a summary and links to our credit teams reports starting on page 14. Source: Dealogic, Barclays Research.8 August 20194Barclays | For Your 'Information Services'U.S. HY Corps (+229% Jul; +30% YTD): Relatively attractive funding vs. bank loansFIG

36、URE 3U.S. High Yield Corporates Issuance Summary ($B)Total Issuance ($bY/YYTD Issuance TracY/YNumber of DealsY/YAverage Deal SizeY/YNote: Sfferences inNote: For more commentary on 2019 issuance forecasts, see a summary and links to our credit teams reports starting on page 14. Source: Dealogic, Barc

37、lays Research8 August 20195Barclays | For Your 'Information Services'U.S. CLOs (-7% Jul; -4% YTD): Slowing with leverage loan issuanceFIGURE 4U.S. Leveraged Loans & CLOs Issuance Summary ($B)Dealogic ComparisonNote: So me differences inNote: For more commentary on 2019 issuance forecasts

38、, see a summary and links to our credit teams reports starting on page 14. Source: Dealogic, Barclays Research8 August 20196Barclays | For Your 'Information Services'U.S. CMBS (-49% Jul; -11% YTD): Slow monthFIGURE 5U.S. CMBS Issuance Summary ($B)*2019 FY based on B arclays Research Estimate

39、sMonthly Issuance Tracker:Issuance by Quarter:14$BFull Year124th Quarter1083rd Quarter62nd Quarter421st Quarter$B0025201650752019*100JanFeb Mar Apr May Jun JulAug Sep Oct Nov Dec201720182016201720182019*Dealogic ComparisonNote: So me differences in issuance numbers due to calculatio n metho do lo gy

40、Note: For more commentary on 2019 issuance forecasts, see a summary and links to our credit teams reports starting on page 14. Source: Dealogic, Barclays Research8 August 20197U.S. Non-Agency CMBSMarket Commentary:- July issuance was $4B (-49%), a slow month that brings total YTD supply to $43B (-11

41、%).- 2018 Recap: 20% declines.- 2017 Recap: Strong y/y growth.- 2016 Recap: Late surge to end the year, but still down -25% y/y.- 2015 Recap: While 2015 is set to reach a post-2009 high for CMBS issuance , the $95B of conduit/SASB loans came in below initial expectations as volatility weighed on the

42、 market to end the year.2014 Recap: Another year of y/y growth in issuance, but $93B ofsupply is still far off 2007 peaks ($230B).Company Notes:MCO/MIS: Structured makes up 19% of revenues, with CMBS accounting for 5%, RMBS 3% and ABS 4% (remaining 6% from CLOs/derivatives). SFG is more domestic-bas

43、ed relative to total MIS, with U.S. making up 70% of mixSPGI/S&P: Structured finance accounts for 14% of revenues; and total Ratings is 60% tied to U.S. but similarly, we expect slightly higher for structured finance asset classes.2015201620172018 y/y2019*y/yJan$6$3$2$5167%$3-38%Feb$12$5$4$519%$

44、730%Mar$11$8$9$98%$7-24%1st Quarter$29$16$15$1931%$17-13%Apr$9$3$4$45%$3-25%May$8$6$9$6-29%$12100%Jun$10$2$11$129%$8-33%2nd Quarter$27$11$23$22-6%$235%Jul$8$6$7$814%$4-49%Aug$7$5$11$5-55%Sep$8$9$9$4-56%3rd Quarter$23$20$27$17-37%$4-49%Oct$9$8$10$8-25%Nov$8$12$10$6-37%Dec$5$9$9$5-44%4th Quarter$22$29

45、$29$19-35%Full Year$101$76$94$77-18%$71-8%Barclays | For Your 'Information Services'U.S. ABS (-15% Jul; +7% YTD): Healthy supply, tough compFIGURE 6U.S. ABS Issuance Summary ($B)Total Issuance ($bY/YYTD Issuance TraY/YNumber of alsY/YAverage Deal SizeY/YNote: So me difnces inNote: For more c

46、ommentary on 2019 issuance forecasts, see a summary and links to our credit teams reports starting on page 14. Source: Dealogic, Barclays Research8 August 20198Barclays | For Your 'Information Services'U.S. Munis (+13% Jul; Flat YTD): Potential source of upsideFIGURE 7U.S. Munis Issuance Sum

47、mary ($B)2015$292016$262017$362018$222019*$25y/y14%y/y-40%JanMar$46$43$33$26$273%-20%Apr$41$35$31$32$28-12%3%Jun$40$48$40$33$343%-16%Jul$35$29$25$27$3013%8%Sep$24$40$29$25-14%Oct$35$54$39$37-6%Dec$25 $19 $64 $22 -66%Full Year$403$446$439$338$38012%-23%*2019 FY based on B arclays Research EstimatesNote: For more commentary on 2019