估值模型EXCEL模板.xls

1、最新修改增加了FCFE估值、DDM估值、APV估值、EVA估值和AE估值。原先的估值对应FCFF估值。其他估值模型有些数是链接到FCFF的，因此FCFF的估值要做全更改了自由现金流定义EBIT（1-所得税率）折旧资本支出非现金性流动资本变化预测前首先需要自己输入的数据3主营收入及成本：各公司收入及成本的预测方法不尽相同，需要分析师自己做4预测假设：各种假设条件5固定资产预测：历史折旧和摊销7损益表及利润分配：2003-2004A利润数据8资产负债表：2003-2004历史数据7损益表及利润分配、8资产负债表：无公式的单元格需要手动填入，如一些特殊会计科目DCF估值（FCFF）：分析日期、股本结

2、构，假设条件中的“第二阶段增长率、长期增长率、应付债券利率、”。注意：第二阶段(2010-2017)年数不可更改。其他估值模型：各假设条件（第二阶段年数也不可更改）11输出结果：2003-2004年经营活动现金流量、投资活动现金流量、融资活动现金流量更多免费财务资料下载，请到：http:/增加了FCFE估值、DDM估值、APV估值、EVA估值和AE估值。原先的估值对应FCFF估值。其他估值模型有些数是链接到FCFF的，因此FCFF的估值要做全DCF估值（FCFF）：分析日期、股本结构，假设条件中的“第二阶段增长率、长期增长率、应付债券利率、”。注意：第二阶段(2010-2017)年数不可更改。

3、 估估值值过过程程中中所所用用的的固固定定参参数数参参数数数数值值无风险利率Rf5.00%平均风险股票必要报酬率Rm11.00%一般情景预测历史数据区名名称称2 20 00 02 22 20 00 03 3产产品品分分产产品品收收入入尿素收入32,261.0832,356.92DMF收入5,800.3724,055.91甲醇/甲醛/三甲胺等化工品收入7,048.498,786.03醋酸收入尿素收入增长率0.30%DMF收入增长率314.73%甲醇/甲醛/三甲胺等化工品收入增长率24.65%醋酸收入增长率分分产产品品价价格格市场尿素月均价1,261.001,384.00市场DMF月均价市场甲醇月

4、均价1,842.002,396.00醋酸月均价尿素价格上涨幅度9.75%DMF价格上涨幅度#DIV/0!甲醇/甲醛/三甲胺等价格上涨幅度30.08%醋酸价格上涨幅度分分产产品品产产量量尿素产量增长率-8.62%DMF产量增长率#DIV/0!甲醇/甲醛/三甲胺等化工品等化工品产量增长率-4.17%醋酸产量增长率0.00尿素产量DMF产量甲醇/甲醛/三甲胺等化工品等化工品产量醋酸产量主主要要产产品品收收入入合合计计（万万元元）45,109.9465,198.86其它产品收入（万元）0.000.00其它产品占主营收入比例0.00%0.00%主主营营业业务务收收入入（万万元元）45,11065,199

5、调调整整比比例例0.00%0.00%主主营营业业务务收收入入（万万元元） 调调整整后后45,11065,199主营收入增长率%44.5%主主营营业业务务成成本本预预测测2002200220032003尿素利润6,969.755,923.59DMF利润1473.165494.36甲醇/甲醛/三甲胺等化工品利润838.852,218.79醋酸利润尿素毛利率21.60%18.31%DMF毛利率25.40%22.84%甲醇/甲醛/三甲胺等化工品毛利率11.90%25.25%醋酸毛利率主营业务利润9281.7613636.74主营业务利润增长率46.92%主主营营业业务务毛毛利利率率20.58%20.9

6、2%子公司收入预测并并表表子子公公司司股股权权比比例例20022003子公司利润预测并并表表子子公公司司股股权权比比例例20022003合合计计少少数数股股东东权权益益调调整整后后少少数数股股东东权权益益显性期预测2 20 00 04 42 20 00 05 52006E2006E2007E2007E2008E2008E2009E2009E44,671.0366,824.0099,801.64109,033.30137,763.57157,050.4740,632.0945,839.0075,634.35104,224.13114,646.55108,914.2214,044.4422,559

7、.0023,574.1629,467.6932,414.4632,414.4636,000.00111,600.0038.06%49.59%49.35%9.25%26.35%14.00%68.91%12.81%65.00%37.80%10.00%-5.00%59.85%60.63%4.50%25.00%10.00%0.00%1,653.001,855.721,911.391,815.821,725.031,638.780.000.000.000.000.002,800.003,904.323,709.103,709.103,709.103,709.106,000.006,200.0019.44

8、%12.26%3.00%-5.00%-5.00%-5.00%#DIV/0!-13.22%10.00%6.00%0.00%-5.00%16.86%39.44%-5.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%15.59%33.25%45.00%15.00%33.00%20.00%#DIV/0!30.00%50.00%30.00%10.00%0.00%36.79%15.19%10.00%25.00%10.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.006.0018.0099,347.56135,222.00199,010.15242,725.12320,824.58409,979.150.000.000.

9、000.000.000.000.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%99,348135,222199,010242,725320,825409,9790.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%99,348135,222199,010242,725320,825409,97952.4%36.1%47.2%22.0%32.2%27.8%2 20 00 04 42 20 00 05 52006E2006E2007E2007E2008E2008E2009E2009E8,669.1013,749.0021,332.5423,305.8129,446.8833,569

10、.459652.256883.0015210.0724758.6927234.5624579.19历史数据区2,529.404,762.004,976.295,307.125,837.845,837.840.008,551.8925,185.3019.41%20.57%21.37%21.37%21.37%21.37%23.76%15.02%20.11%23.76%23.76%22.57%18.01%21.11%21.11%18.01%18.01%18.01%23.76%23.76%22.57%20850.7525394.0041518.9053371.6271071.1789171.7852.

11、90%21.79%63.50%28.55%33.16%25.47%20.77%18.78%20.86%21.99%22.15%21.75%20042005E2006E2007E2008E2009E20042005E2006E2007E2008E2009E一般情景预测1 1、经经营营活活动动2003200420052006E2007E主营业务收入同比增长率44.53%52.38%36.11%47.17%21.97%主营业务成本 /主营业务收入79.08%79.23%81.22%79.14%78.01%主营业务税金及附加 /主营业务收入（营业税率）0.50%0.55%0.49%0.49%0.49%

12、营业费用 /主营业务收入1.12%1.47%1.41%1.41%1.41%管理费用 /主营业务收入3.22%2.49%1.94%1.94%1.94%实际税率23.95%17.16%19.63%19.63%19.63%股利分配比例25.44%19.86%9.51%9.51%9.51%2 2、营营运运资资金金2003200420052006E2007E货币资金 /主营业务收入49.67%34.84%27.05%27.05%27.05%应收帐款周转天数(相对于主营业务收入)0.010.000.000.000.00应收票据周转天数(相对于主营业务收入)6.381.665.055.055.05存货周转天

13、数(相对于主营业务成本)38.2247.4248.1848.1848.18应付票据周转天数(相对于主营业务成本)0.000.001应付帐款周转天数(相对于主营业务成本)39.31116.7245.4645.4645.46预付帐款增加 /主营业务成本2.29%-0.60%1.16%1.16%1.16%待摊费用增加 /营业费用和管理费用-0.13%0.03%2.06%2.06%2.06%预收帐款(负债)增加 /主营业务收入1.62%0.91%3.33%3.33%3.33%预提费用增加 /营业费用和管理费用0.00%0.00%0.49%0.49%0.49%其他流动资产增加 /主

14、营业务收入增加0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%其他流动负债增加 /主营业务收入增加0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%其他长期资产增加 /主营业务收入增加0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%其他长期负债增加 /主营业务收入增加0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%坏帐准备 /应收帐款0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%短期投资跌价准备#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!0.00%0.00%存货跌价准备(含工程亏损准备)0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%长期投资减值准备#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DI

15、V/0!0.00%0.00%固定资产减值准备0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%在建工程减值准备0.00%#DIV/0!0.00%0.00%0.00%3 3、资资本本性性投投资资a、假定固定资产采用直直线线法法折旧b、现有固定资产和新建固定资产的折旧年限平均为12年残值率为5.00%年折旧率=7.92%c、各年的固定资产投资如下：2 20 00 03 32 20 00 04 42 20 00 05 52006E2006E2007E2007E55,760.3160,852.5051,739.0060,000.0030,000.004、债债务务和和利利息息20032004200520

16、06E2007Ea、最低货币资金为主营业务收入的34.84%b、银行长期贷款利率为6.00%c、现金不足时增加短期贷款，利率为5.50%d、现金存款利率为1.35%预计银行长期贷款增加额（万元）42,700.0049,400.0032,333.0020,000.00(40,000.00)2008E2009E32.18%27.79%77.85%78.25%0.49%0.49%1.41%1.41%1.94%1.94%19.63%19.63%9.51%9.51%2008E2009E27.05%27.05%0.000.005.055.0548.18145.4645.461.16

17、%1.16%2.06%2.06%3.33%3.33%0.49%0.49%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%2008E2008E2009E2009E3,000.003,000.002008E2009E(35,000.00)(35,000.00)经经营营情情景景分分析析情情景景选选择择2 2一一般般情情景景预预测测会会计计年年度度截截止止日日：12/3112/312005E2006E1销售收入增长率36.11%47.17%2销货成本

18、/ 销售收入81.22%79.14%3管理费用 / 销售收入1.94%1.94%营业费用 / 销售收入1.41%1.41%股利分配比例9.51%9.51%1 1乐乐观观情情景景预预测测销售收入增长率39.72%51.89%销货成本 / 销售收入79.60%77.55%管理费用 / 销售收入1.84%1.84%营业费用 / 销售收入1.34%1.34%股利分配比例14.51%14.51%2 2一一般般情情景景预预测测销售收入增长率36.11%47.17%销货成本 / 销售收入81.22%79.14%管理费用 / 销售收入1.94%1.94%营业费用 / 销售收入1.41%1.41%股利分配比例9

19、.51%9.51%3 3保保守守情情景景预预测测销售收入增长率32.50%42.46%销货成本 / 销售收入82.84%80.72%管理费用 / 销售收入2.03%2.03%营业费用 / 销售收入1.48%1.48%股利分配比例4.51%4.51%2007E2008E2009E21.97%32.2%27.79%78.01%77.8%78.25%1.94%1.9%1.94%1.41%1.4%1.41%9.51%9.5%9.51%24.16%35.39%30.57%76.45%76.29%76.68%1.84%1.84%1.84%1.34%1.34%1.34%14.51%14.51%14.51%2

20、1.97%32.18%27.79%78.01%77.85%78.25%1.94%1.94%1.94%1.41%1.41%1.41%9.51%9.51%9.51%19.77%28.96%25.01%79.57%79.40%79.81%2.03%2.03%2.03%1.48%1.48%1.48%4.51%4.51%4.51%历历史史折折旧旧：200220032004固固定定资资产产折折旧旧原值72,321.7875,494.11224,525.01折旧3,422.505,488.04折旧率0.00%4.53%2.44%假假设设：现有固定资产的折旧年限/折旧率7.92%使使用用直直线线折折旧旧法法新

21、建固定资产的折旧年限/折旧率6.00%20052006E2007E2008E2009E初始固定资产原值224,52517,774.9017,774.9017,774.9017,774.9017,774.902005固定资产投资+在建工程转44,2392,654.342,654.342,654.342,654.342,654.342006固定资产投资+在建工程转60,7503,645.003,645.003,645.003,645.002007固定资产投资+在建工程转31,8751,912.501,912.501,912.502008固定资产投资+在建工程转3,938236.25236.2520

22、09固定资产投资+在建工程转3,469208.13在建工程期初余额0.007,500.006,750.004,875.003,937.50新增工程物资0.000.000.000.000.00新增在建工程15,000.006,000.003,000.003,000.003,000.00转固定资产7,500.006,750.004,875.003,937.503,468.75在建工程期末余额7,500.006,750.004,875.003,937.503,468.75期初固定资产合计189,218.01220,527.77256,453.54260,466.80237,243.81+ +固定资产

23、投资51,739.0060,000.0030,000.003,000.003,000.00折旧20,429.2424,074.2425,986.7426,222.9926,431.11固定资产减值准备0.000.000.000.000.00期期末末固固定定资资产产合合计计220,527.77256,453.54260,466.80237,243.81213,812.70无无形形资资产产投投资资和和折折旧旧历历史史摊摊销销：200220032004摊销假假设设：不考虑无形资产增加，无形资产采用直线法摊销，摊销年限10 年20042005E2006E2007E2008E2009E期初无形资产净值0

24、.000.000.000.000.00摊销0.000.000.000.000.00期末无形资产净值0.000.000.000.000.000.00一般情景预测利利润润表表（单单位位：万万元元）历史数据区显性期预测会计年度截止日：12/3120022003200420052006E2007E2008E2009E主主营营业业务务收收入入45,11065,19999,348135,222199,010242,725320,825409,979增增长长率率44.5%52.4%36.1%47.2%22.0%32.2%27.8%减：折扣与折让主主营营业业务务收收入入净净额额45,11065,19999,3

25、48135,222199,010242,725320,825409,979减：主营业务成本35,82851,56278,710109,162157,491189,354249,753320,807主营业务税金及附加2743275496669801,1951,5802,019主主营营业业务务利利润润9,00813,31020,08925,39440,53952,17669,49187,153毛毛利利率率20.6%20.9%20.8%19.3%20.9%22.0%22.2%21.8%加：其他业务利润226.26119.3872.7912.00150.00200.00200.00200.00减：存货

26、跌价损失0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00营业费用414.57731.761,460.751,902.002,799.233,414.114,512.645,766.67管理费用2,627.692,102.052,471.252,620.003,855.934,702.936,216.157,943.57利息费用7,661.398,975.988,616.626,366.623,805.98利息收入480.51623.80820.091,041.031,534.13汇兑损益(收益为正)其他0.000.000.000.000.00财务费用782.48810.4793

27、9.56633.891,805.181,249.54(1,221.41)2,271.85营营业业利利润润5,409.949,784.9015,289.8220,250.1132,228.3943,009.5660,183.6571,370.45加：投资收益0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00加：期货收益0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00补贴收入802.87859.631.201,439.00600.000.000.000.00营业外收入23.3629.3638.68203.0050.0050.0050.0050.00减：营业外支出93.

28、05317.94103.4150.0080.0080.0080.0080.00加：以前年度损益调整税税前前利利润润6,143.1210,355.9515,226.2921,842.1132,798.3942,979.5660,153.6571,340.45减：所得税1,533.672,479.922,612.624,287.006,437.418,435.6911,806.4914,002.15实际税率25.0%23.9%17.2%19.6%19.6%19.6%19.6%19.6%加：财政返还减：少数股东损益0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00加：未确认的投资损失减

29、：购并利润净净利利润润4,609.457,876.0312,613.6717,555.1126,360.9834,543.8748,347.1657,338.30销销售售净净利利率率10.2%12.1%12.7%13.0%13.2%14.2%15.1%14.0%净净利利润润增增长长率率70.9%60.2%39.2%50.2%31.0%40.0%18.6%发行在外股份数量(万股）16,700.0016,700.0016,700.0025,050.0025,050.0033,050.0033,050.0033,050.00EPSEPS0.2760.4720.7550.7011.0521.0451.

30、4631.735EPS增增长长率率70.9%60.2%-7.2%50.2%-0.7%40.0%18.6%股股利利2,004.002,004.002,505.001,670.002,507.693,286.124,599.225,454.53期期初初未未分分配配利利润润0.003,906.188,596.8116,813.0030,065.1149,964.2576,040.42112,536.29提提取取法法定定盈盈余余公公积积460.92787.601,261.371,755.002,636.103,454.394,834.725,733.83提提取取法法定定公公益益金金230.46393.

31、80630.68878.001,318.051,727.192,417.362,866.92提提取取任任意意盈盈余余公公积积0.000.000.00期期末末未未分分配配利利润润1,914.078,596.8116,813.4330,065.1149,964.2576,040.42112,536.29155,819.31一般情景预测资资产产负负债债表表（万万元元）历史数据区显性期预测会计年度截止日：12/3120022003200420052006E2007E2008E2009E资产货币资金21,798.0132,383.1334,609.4636,577.0055,837.9365,656.1

32、688,570.83138,707.47短期投资0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00减：短期投资跌价准备短期投资0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00应收票据384.001,139.13453.061,872.002,755.083,360.264,441.465,675.71应收股利0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00应收利息0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00应收帐款679.492.410.000.000.000.000.000.00其他应收款78.87204.3492.9446.

33、0067.7082.57109.14139.47减：坏帐准备应收帐款净额758.36206.7592.9446.0067.7082.57109.14139.47预付帐款3,151.864,334.363,862.665,127.006,951.109,144.2412,036.9415,752.61应收补贴款0.000.000.00存货3,781.435,399.4410,226.1214,408.0020,786.8524,992.2632,964.2842,342.51其中:工程施工减：存货跌价准备(含工程亏损准备)0.000.000.000.000.000.00存货净额3,781.435

34、,399.4410,226.1214,408.0020,786.8524,992.2632,964.2842,342.51待摊费用19.2915.5916.91110.00247.00414.10634.96917.20待处理流动资产净损失一年内到期的长期债券投资期货保证金0.000.000.000.00319.59319.59319.59319.59其他流动资产0.000.000.000.000.00流流动动资资产产总总额额29,892.9543,478.4049,261.1558,140.0086,965.25103,969.18139,077.22203,854.55长期股权投资0.00

35、0.000.000.000.000.000.000.00长期债权投资长期投资合计0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00减：长期投资减值准备长长期期投投资资净净额额0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00其中：合并价差0.000.000.00股权投资差额固定资产原值72,321.7875,494.11224,525.01233,788.00294,538.00326,413.00330,350.50333,819.25减：累计折旧28,611.9732,034.4737,522.5152,013.0076,087.24102,073.97128,

36、296.96154,728.07固定资产净值43,709.8143,459.64187,002.50181,775.00218,450.76224,339.03202,053.54179,091.18减：固定资产减值准备0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00固定资产净额43,709.8143,459.64187,002.50181,775.00218,450.76224,339.03202,053.54179,091.18工程物资11,362.6724,857.862,215.5122,415.0022,415.0022,415.0022,415.0022,415.0

37、0在建工程4,701.5548,439.930.0014,050.006,750.004,875.003,937.503,468.75减：在建工程减值准备固定资产清理0.00待处理固定资产净损失固固定定资资产产合合计计59,774.03116,757.43189,218.01218,240.00247,615.76251,629.03228,406.04204,974.93无形资产0.0030.100.000.000.000.000.000.00递延资产开办费长期待摊费用0.000.000.000.00482.00355.00228.00101.00其他长期资产0.000.000.000.00

38、0.000.000.000.00其中：临时设施净值无无形形资资产产及及其其他他资资产产合合计计0.0030.100.000.00482.00355.00228.00101.00递延税款借项资资产产总总额额89,666.98160,265.93238,479.16276,380.00335,063.01355,953.21367,711.26408,930.48负债和股东权益循循环环贷贷款款9,500.007,500.007,000.008,000.000.0016,750.660.000.00应付票据0.000.000.002,726.003,932.884,728.556,236.868,0

39、11.22应付帐款6,211.315,630.2725,520.6613,785.0019,615.5923,584.0431,106.8739,956.67预收帐款(负债)3,401.524,454.575,358.659,859.0016,482.3024,560.4835,237.9048,882.50代销商品款应付工资0.000.000.000.00150.00150.00150.00150.00应付福利1,194.121,351.991,580.241,575.001,600.001,600.001,600.001,600.00应付股利1,860.000.000.000.000.00

40、0.000.000.00应交税金(252.51)(181.86)(1,145.33)(341.00)3,000.003,000.003,000.003,000.00其他应交款3.076.5425.0322.00150.00150.00150.00150.00其他应付款434.16581.65461.18601.0015,000.0015,000.0015,000.0015,000.00预提费用0.000.000.0022.0054.3893.87146.06212.77其他流动负债0.000.000.000.000.00一年内到期的长期负债0.000.004,600.000.000.000.0

41、00.000.00流流动动负负债债22,351.6719,343.1643,400.4336,249.0059,985.1489,617.6092,627.70116,963.16长期银行贷款11,500.0054,200.00103,600.00135,933.00155,933.00115,933.0080,933.0045,933.00应付债券0.000.000.000.000.00长期应付款0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00专项应付款0.0023,045.0017,667.4311,835.009,478.589,478.589,478.589,478.5

42、8住房周转金其他长期负债0.000.000.000.000.00长长期期负负债债合合计计11,500.0077,245.00121,267.43147,768.00165,411.58125,411.5890,411.5855,411.58递延税款贷项0.000.000.000.00负负债债总总额额33,851.6796,588.16164,667.86184,017.00225,396.72215,029.18183,039.28172,374.74少数股东权益0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00股本16,700.0016,700.0016,700.0025,05

43、0.0025,050.0033,050.0033,050.0033,050.00减：已归还投资股本净额16,700.0016,700.0016,700.0025,050.0025,050.0025,050.0025,050.0025,050.00资本公积金35,676.0735,676.0735,701.0530,018.0030,018.0030,018.0030,018.0030,018.00其中：补充流动资本盈余公积金1,525.422,704.774,596.827,230.0011,184.1516,365.7323,617.8032,218.55其中：公益金508.47901.59

44、1,532.272,410.00未确认的投资损失0.000.000.000.000.00未分配利润1,913.828,596.8116,813.4330,065.0049,964.2576,040.42112,536.29155,819.31外币报表折算差额资本汇差调整股股东东权权益益合合计计55,815.3163,677.6573,811.3092,363.00116,216.40147,474.15191,222.09243,105.86负负债债和和股股东东权权益益89,666.98160,265.81238,479.16276,380.00341,613.13362,503.32374,

45、261.37415,480.60检检查查0.000.120.000.00(6,550.11)(6,550.11)(6,550.11)(6,550.11)资资产产负负债债率率37.75%60.27%69.05%66.58%65.98%59.32%48.91%41.49%一般情景预测现现金金流流量量表表 （单单位位：万万元元）历史数据区显性区预测会计年度截止日：12/3120042005E2006E2007E2008E2008E2009E2009E经经营营活活动动产产生生的的现现金金流流量量税税后后利利润润17,555.1126,360.9834,543.8748,347.1657,338.30加

46、加:少数股东损益0.000.000.000.000.00处置固定、无形资产和其他长期资产的损失0.000.000.000.000.00固定资产报废损失财务费用633.891,805.181,249.54(1,221.41)2,271.85投资损失(减:收益)0.000.000.000.000.00折旧和摊销20,429.2424,074.2425,986.7426,222.9926,431.11坏帐准备0.000.000.000.000.00短期投资跌价准备0.000.000.000.000.00存货跌价准备（含工程亏损准备）0.000.000.000.000.00长期投资减值准备0.000.

47、000.000.000.00固定资产减值准备0.000.000.000.000.00在建工程减值准备0.000.000.000.000.00营营运运资资金金的的变变动动应收票据的减少/(增加)(1,418.94)(883.08)(605.19)(1,081.20)(1,234.25)应收股利的减少/(增加)0.000.000.000.000.00应收利息的减少/(增加)0.000.000.000.000.00应收帐款的减少/(增加)0.000.000.000.000.00其他应收款的减少/(增加)46.94(21.70)(14.87)(26.57)(30.33)预付帐款的减少/(增加)(1,2

48、64.34)(1,824.10)(2,193.14)(2,892.70)(3,715.67)应收补贴款的减少/(增加)0.000.000.000.000.00存货的减少/(增加)(4,181.88)(6,378.85)(4,205.41)(7,972.02)(9,378.22)待摊费用的减少/(增加)(93.09)(137.00)(167.10)(220.86)(282.24)期货保证金的减少/(增加)0.00(319.59)0.000.000.00其他流动资产的减少/(增加)0.000.000.000.000.00长期待摊费用的减少/(增加)0.00(482.00)127.00127.001

49、27.00其他长期资产的减少/(增加)0.000.000.000.000.00递延税款借项的减少/(增加)0.000.000.000.000.00应付票据的增加/(减少)2,726.001,206.88795.671,508.311,774.36应付帐款的增加/(减少)(11,735.66)5,830.593,968.457,522.838,849.79预收帐款(负债)的增加/(减少)4,500.356,623.308,078.1810,677.4313,644.60代销商品款的增加/(减少)0.000.000.000.000.00应付工资的增加/(减少)0.00150.000.000.000

50、.00应付福利的增加/(减少)(5.24)25.000.000.000.00应付股利的增加/(减少)0.000.000.000.000.00应交税金的增加/(减少)804.333,341.000.000.000.00其他应交款的增加/(减少)(3.03)128.000.000.000.00其他应付款的增加/(减少)139.8214,399.000.000.000.00预提费用的增加/(减少)22.0032.3839.4952.2066.70其他流动负债的增加/(减少)0.000.000.000.000.00长期应付款的增加/(减少)(5,832.43)(2,356.42)0.000.000.0

51、0其他长期负债的增加/(减少)0.000.000.000.000.00一年内到期长期负债的增加/(减少)(4,600.00)0.000.000.000.00应付债券的增加/(减少)0.000.000.000.000.00递延税款贷项的增加/(减少)0.000.000.000.000.00经经营营活活动动的的现现金金流流量量17,723.0771,573.8067,603.2381,043.1495,863.02投投资资活活动动的的现现金金流流量量短期投资0.000.000.000.000.00长期投资0.000.000.000.000.00未确认的投资损失0.000.000.000.000.0

52、0投资收益0.000.000.000.000.00固定资产投资(51,739.00)(60,000.00)(30,000.00)(3,000.00)(3,000.00)投投资资活活动动的的现现金金流流(51,739.00)(60,000.00)(30,000.00)(3,000.00)(3,000.00)融融资资活活动动产产生生的的现现金金流流量量长期贷款的增加/(减少)32,333.0020,000.00(40,000.00)(35,000.00)(35,000.00)股利分配(1,670.00)(2,507.69)(3,286.12)(4,599.22)(5,454.53)财务费用(633

53、.89)(1,805.18)(1,249.54)1,221.41(2,271.85)股份发行8,350.000.000.000.000.00资本公积金的增加/(减少)(5,683.05)0.000.000.000.00计入循环贷款前融资活动产生的现金流量32,696.0615,687.13(44,535.66)(38,377.81)(42,726.39)循环贷款的增加(减少)3,287.41(8,000.00)16,750.66(16,750.66)0.00融融资资活活动动的的现现金金流流35,983.477,687.13(27,785.00)(55,128.46)(42,726.39)现现金

54、金净净变变动动1,967.5419,260.939,818.2322,914.6850,136.63期期初初现现金金余余额额34,609.4636,577.0055,837.9365,656.1688,570.83期期末末现现金金余余额额36,577.0055,837.9365,656.1688,570.83138,707.47自自由由现现金金流流量量(此此行行数数据据未未用用)(34,015.93)11,573.8037,603.2378,043.1492,863.02公公司司自自由由现现金金流流FCFFEBIT20,884.0034,033.5744,259.1058,962.2473,6

55、42.30税率19.63%19.63%19.63%19.63%19.63%EBIT*(1-税率)16,785.0527,353.7335,572.2747,389.5959,188.36加：折旧20,429.2424,074.2425,986.7426,222.9926,431.11减：资本支出55,283.6656,288.4229,873.002,873.002,873.00减：非现金性流动资本的增加(减少)10,462.74(22,171.83)(5,696.09)(7,567.40)(9,694.75)FCFF(28,532.11)17,311.3737,382.0978,306.98

56、92,441.23非非现现金金性性流流动动资资本本变变化化流动资产14,651.6921,563.0031,127.3238,313.0250,506.3865,147.08流动负债31,800.4328,249.0059,985.1472,866.9492,627.70116,963.16流动资本(17,148.74)(6,686.00)(28,857.83)(34,553.91)(42,121.32)(51,816.07)非非现现金金性性流流动动资资本本变变化化10,462.74(22,171.83)(5,696.09)(7,567.40)(9,694.75)股股权权资资本本自自由由现现金

57、金流流FCFE净利17,555.1126,360.9834,543.8748,347.1657,338.30加：折旧20,429.2424,074.2425,986.7426,222.9926,431.11加：债务的增加(减少)28,733.0012,000.00(23,249.34)(51,750.66)(35,000.00)减：资本支出55,283.6656,288.4229,873.002,873.002,873.00减：非现金性流动资本的增加(减少)10,462.74(22,171.83)(5,696.09)(7,567.40)(9,694.75)FCFE970.9528,318.62

58、13,104.3527,513.8955,591.17一般情景预测债债务务、现现金金和和利利息息（单单位位：万万元元）2004A20052006E2007E2008E2009E循循环环贷贷款款利利率率5.50%期初现金余额34,609.4636,577.0055,837.9365,656.1688,570.83当期现金流量经营活动产生的现金流量17,723.0771,573.8067,603.2381,043.1495,863.02投资活动产生的现金流量(51,739.00)(60,000.00)(30,000.00)(3,000.00)(3,000.00)计入循环贷款前融资活动产生的现金流量

59、32,696.0615,687.13(44,535.66)(38,377.81)(42,726.39)- - 最低现金余额36,577.0053,831.4365,656.1686,781.74110,897.69现现金金剩剩余余/(/(缺缺口口）(3,287.41)10,006.49(16,750.66)18,539.7527,809.78循环贷款期初余额7,000.008,000.000.0016,750.660.00循环贷款的增加/(减少)3,287.41(8,000.00)16,750.66(16,750.66)0.00循循环环贷贷款款期期末末余余额额10,287.410.0016,7

60、50.660.000.00循循环环贷贷款款利利息息费费用用475.40220.00460.64460.640.00银银行行长长期期贷贷款款利利率率6.00%期初余额103,600.00135,933.00155,933.00115,933.0080,933.00当期增加/(减少)32,333.0020,000.00(40,000.00)(35,000.00)(35,000.00)期期末末余余额额103,600.00135,933.00155,933.00115,933.0080,933.0045,933.00长长期期贷贷款款利利息息费费用用7,185.998,755.988,155.985,9