日本人为何也只生一个

1、日本人为何也只生一个东京没有类似于中国政府努力实施的官方计划生育政策，不过从东京普通家庭的人数 上，你是永远也无法猜到这一点的。Tokyo doesn't have an official one-child policy like the one the Chinese government has tried to implement, but you'd never guess that by looking at the average family size here in the capital.2008 年，也就是日本厚生劳动省 (Ministry of Labo

2、r, Health and Welfare) 最近一年发 布数据的时候，东京的出生率是日本最低的，每个妇女平均只生 1.09 个孩子。In 2008, the latest year for which data are available from the Ministry of Labor, Health and Welfare, Tokyo had the nation's lowest birthrate, at 1.09 children per woman.东京高昂的生活成本、长时间的工作时间、稀缺的日托服务，这些都可以帮助解释为 什么东京一些中心社区的小学关门等待重新开发

3、，学校的操场静悄悄的，只是偶尔可 以在布满水藻的游泳池中看到路过的水鸟。The high cost of living, long working hours and scarce day-care in the capital help explain why elementary schools in some central Tokyo neighborhoods are shuttered and awaiting redevelopment, their playgrounds quiet, with only the occasional passing waterfowl vis

4、ible in their algae-slicked swimming pools.在这个全球第二大经济体的其他地区，情况同样堪忧。 2008 年，日本全国的出生率为 每个妇女生 1.37 个孩子，较 2005 年 1.26 个的纪录低点有所提高，不过仍远远无法满 足日本人口更新换代的需要。如果目前的形势继续下去的话， 2050 年前日本的人口将 从现在的约 1.27 亿人减至 9,500 万人。Elsewhere in the world's second-largest economy, the situation is similarly worrying. The natio

5、nal birthrate in 2008 was 1.37 children per woman - up from a record low of 1.26 in 2005, but still nowhere near what the country needs to replenish its population. If current trends continue, Japan's population will fall to 95 million by 2050, from about 127 million now.日本人的平均寿命延长，这是个好消息，但对人口规划

6、来说却是坏消息，原因是很少 的工人要供养越来越多的老年人。And the good news about rising average life spans here is bad news for demographic planning, as few workers support more and more older folks.政府数据显示， 2008 年日本人出生时的平均预期寿命是全球最高的，女性为 86.05 岁， 男性为 79.29 岁。Japan's average life expectancy at birth was the highest in the wo

7、rld in 2008, at 86.05 years for women and 79.29 years for men, government data show.不过据日本统计局的数据， 2008 年需要社会供养的人口比例为 55.2% 。这一比例是把 老年人和儿童的人数加在一起，然后除以处于工作年龄段的人口数量。自 1997 年以 来，老年人在总人口中的比例一直高于较年轻人口的比例。But the ratio of the dependent population - the sum of the elderly and young population, divided by the

8、 working-age population - was 55.2% in 2008, according to the Statistics Bureau. The proportion of elderly in the total population has remained above that of the younger age group since 1997.生育现金津贴Cash allowances for kids去年 8 月，日本民主党 (Democratic Party of Japan) 上台，它承诺要把政府的注意力转 向提振内需，同时推迟上调消费税的计划(目前为

9、 5% )，尽管日本的公共债务规模 越来越大。The Democratic Party of Japan was swept into power last August on a platform that vowed to shift the government's focus to boosting domestic demand, while postponing a hike in the country's 5% consumption tax - despite Japan's burgeoning public debt.根据日本政府 “儿童及育儿计划

10、 ”所制定的目标，日本首相鸠山由纪夫 (Yukio Hatoyama)1 月份承诺，将通过取消日托的等待名单、整合托儿所及幼儿园体系，进而努力增强 托儿服务，并将增加课外托儿服务，作为创建一个整个社会分担家庭育儿重担的环境。Under targets based on his governments' "Vision on Children and Child-Rearing," Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama vowed in January to "work to enhance the provision of child

11、care services by eliminating day-care waiting lists and integrating the kindergarten and nursery school systems, and will increase access to afterschool childcare services as part of our efforts to create an environment in which the burden on families raising children is shared by society as a whole

12、." 日本民主党的计划包括以每个孩子 3,000 多美元的额度向家庭发放现金津贴，针对高 中年龄以下的孩子按月支付，以帮助降低抚养成本。The DPJ's plan includes paying cash allowances of more than $3,000 per child to families, with monthly payments for children under high school age to help defray child-rearing costs.日本众议院在上周二通过了有关育儿津贴的法案，人们普遍预计日本民主党占多数的 参议院

13、将在本月结束以前予以通过。Japan's lower house of parliament passed the child allowance bill Tuesday, and it is widely expected to clear in the upper house - where the DPJ holds a majority -before the end of this month.但一些人说，这项政策更大的目的不是提振日本较低的出生率，而是给其疲弱的消费 带来一种短期刺激。But some say the policy is aimed less at pro

14、pping up the country's sagging birth rate and more at giving anemic consumption an immediate shot in the arm.摩根大通 (J.P. Morgan) 驻日本首席日股策略师 Hajime Kitano 表示，我将育儿津贴看 作是针对 35 岁人群的一种税收减免。"I view child allowance as a tax break for people aged 35," said Hajime Kitano, chief Japanese equity s

15、trategist at J.P. Morgan in Japan.他说，日本 1975 年出生的人群在 1997 年大学毕业，成为完全的社会人，这一年正好 是山一证券 (Yamaichi Securities) 破产的时候。山一证券曾是日本四大经纪商之一，其 破产被视为 “失去的 10 年”中一个标志性事件。Japanese people born in 1975 graduated from university and became full-fledged members of society in 1997 - the year that Yamaichi Securities we

16、nt under, he said. Yamaichi had been one of Japan's top four brokerages, and its failure is considered an iconic marker of the era known as the "lost decade."Kitano 上周四发表的研究报告说，在上世纪 90 年代末，人们开始谈论彼时年轻人在 就业上遇到的 “冰河世纪”，“失去的 10年”造成的负面影响在这个 “失去的一代 ”身上体现 得最为强烈。In the late 1990s, "people

17、 started to talk of an employment ice age" for young people at that time, according to Kitano's research report, released Thursday. "It was on this 'lost generation' that the 'lost decade's' negative effects were strongest."他说，失去的一代现在正在接近 35 到 44 岁这个消费盛年期。This

18、lost generation, he said, is now reaching the 35-44 peak age range for consumption.Kitano 说，虽然育儿津贴表面上是针对孩子的，但更仔细地考察就会发现，它似乎更 像是对这一代人的援助。"Although child allowance appears on the surface to be about children, upon closer examination it seems more like assistance for this generation," Kitano said.很多日本公司并不认为政府的政策将遏制出生率的下降，都在积极地寻求拓展海外市 场份额。Many Japanese companies are taking no chances that the government's policies will arrest the fall in the nation's birth rate, and are actively seeking to expand their market share aboard.多样化婴幼儿护理产品