我国IT与消费电子市场分析与发展趋势展望

1、0.0200.0400.0600.0800.01,000.01,200.01,400.01,600.01,800.00.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%Hardware1,250.7 1,425.5 1,584.1 Software230.00 285.00 344.96 Service259.80 323.10 429.30 GR(HW)22.6%14.0%11.1%GR(SW)30.7%23.9%21.0%GR(SEV)34.2%24.4%32.9%2000200120020.0100.0200.0300.0400.0500.0600.07

2、00.0800.00.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%02H1Rev.672.4 148.6 176.4 03H1Rev.710.6 161.6 200.4 Growt Rate5.7%8.8%13.6%HardwareSoftwareService453.770.570.877.9%14.2%39.2%10.0%5.6%5.5%0.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.0300.0350.0400.0450.0500.0台式PCPC服务器笔记本电脑RISC服务器Unix工作站NT工作站0.0%5.0%10.0%15.

3、0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%20022003Growth Rate台式台式PC279.0 287.3 3.0%PC服务器服务器29.30 29.70 1.4%笔记本电脑笔记本电脑55.10 69.07 25.4%RISC服务器服务器30.28 31.61 4.4%Unix工作站工作站8.3 8.5 2.9%NT工作站工作站2.39 2.58 8.0%12.48.611.243.7-5.1%-9.6%3.4%-2.9%3.8%85.6%-1.4%0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0显示器打印机多功能

4、一体机投影机扫描仪UPS磁盘存储系统-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%03H1Rev.02-03GR1.626.422.02.41.715.0%3.9%13.8%179.6%237.3%-33.9%1.1%5.5%0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.0Modem 集线器 交换机 路由器 网卡ADSL WLAN 总计-50.0%0.0%50.0%100.0%150.0%200.0%250.0%300.0%03H1Rev.02-03GRShare:77.8%Share:12.1%42.4107.811.4161.62

5、.5%11.7%6.4%8.8%0.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0140.0160.0180.0平台软件应用软件中间软件总计0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%02H1Rev.03H1Rev.GR(02-03)MiddlePlatformAPP.52.1443.8%52.2%21.4%12.6%30.7%23.9%8.8%21.1%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2000年2001年2002年2003上半年012345中间件销售额（亿元）中间件增长率软件增长率邮政交通能源流通媒介科研教育政府电信医疗制造金融-1

6、0%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%0.0200040006000800028.4%72.158.370.0200.40.2%-4.5%61.4%13.6%0.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.0专业服务支持与维护网络服务总计-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%03H1Rev.GR(02-03)8.77.338.817.3-13.9%5.2%-3.2%16.4%0.05.010.015.020.025.030.035.040.045.0IT教育与培训IT咨询系统集成运营管理-20.0%-15.0%-10.0%

7、-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%03H1Rev.GR(02-03)9.6%10.1%55.7%53.9%14.0%12.1%20.6%24.0%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%20022003IT咨询系统集成IT教育与培训运营管理03H1Rev.=72.1亿元人民币亿元人民币231.7247.8199.5116.976.2109.491.22.1%3.7%10.5%14.6%8.9%9.8%11.5%0.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.0300.0华北华东华南西南西北华中东北0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.

8、0%12.0%14.0%16.0%2003H1Rev.02-03GR83.7349.7150.2363.6125.53.1%10.8%9.1%5.7%13.4%050100150200250300350400Gov. Edu.LBSMBHome0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%03Rev.02-03GR11.9%11.7%7.4%7.8%34.0%32.6%32.9%33.9%13.8%14.0%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%20022003Gov.Edu.LBSMBHome邮政交通能源流通媒介科研教育政府电信制造医疗建筑金融其它-10%-5%0%

9、5%10%15%20%25%30%35%0.050.0100.0150.0200.003H1市场规模，亿元人民币0.01,000.02,000.03,000.04,000.05,000.06,000.0IT Service510.0 640.0 825.2 1,035.0 1,265.0 Software395.5 486.8 605.2 745.2 900.0 Hardware1,739.0 2,004.6 2,355.2 2,715.6 3,069.9 2003年2004年2005年2006年2007年65.8%64.0%62.2%60.4%58.6%15.0%15.5%16.0%16.6

10、%17.2%19.3%20.4%21.8%23.0%24.2%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2003年2004年2005年2006年2007年HardwareSoftwareIT ServiceNetworksApp.&OthersPeripheralsComputerSystemIT ServiceSoftware0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%0.0500.01,000.01,500.02,000.0(900,21.1%)(305,17.8%)(490.2,15.1%)(500.8,9.4%)(1773.9,14

11、.8%)(1265,24.1%)165.0227.5298.5387.2481.4648.9744.2844.9944.51018.267.680.296.9115.4135.00.0300.0600.0900.01200.01500.01800.02003年2004年2005年2006年2007年NotebookDesktopServer115.0170.0235.0320.0415.01030.01220.01420.01620.01780.027.633.741.650.660.01172.61423.71696.61990.62255.0441.7245.6270.224.756.6-

12、3.7%115.9%-14.0%75.3%8.6%0.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.0300.0350.0400.0450.0500.0DVD影碟机DVD影碟机 普通CRT普通CRT背投彩电背投彩电等离子彩电等离子彩电液晶彩电液晶彩电-40.0%-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%120.0%140.0%07RevenueCAGR03-07486.8605.2900.0745.2395.520.8%23.1%24.3%23.1%14.7%0.0100.0200.0300.0400.0500.0600.0700.0800.0900.01000

13、.02003年2004年2005年2006年2007年0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%RevenueGR Y/YCAGR=21.1%100M RMB0.0200.0400.0600.0800.01000.0Middle22.6 28.8 39.8 57.1 75.4 95.2 Platform99.7 107.3 127.6 152.2 177.4 204.8 Applications222.7 259.4 319.3 395.9 492.4 600.0 2002年2003年2004年2005年2006年2007年100M RMB510.0640.0825.2

14、1,035.01,265.022.2%25.4%28.9%18.8%25.5%0.0200.0400.0600.0800.01,000.01,200.01,400.0200320042005200620070.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%RevenueGR Y/YCAGR=24.1%100M RMB163.4222.8301.9391.7490.0193.4241.1313.6397.9494.3153.3176.1209.7245.4280.80.0500.01000.01500.020032004200520062007Network Servi

15、ceProfessional serviceSupport&maintainance100M RMBIntegration, 224.8, 19.7% Training, 56.7, 17.5%Operation Managment, 121.9, 29.5%IT Consulting, 90.9, 36.2%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%0.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.0Large Business, 1089.1 11.5% SMB, 1278.0 18.1% Home,598.9 21.2%Goverement,502.7 21.6%Education, 316.9 20.5%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%20.0%22.0%24.0%0.0500.01000.01500.0保险证券交通能源教育政府银行电信制造家庭10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%20.0%22.0%24.0%0.0300.0600.0900.01200.01500.01800.0市场