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1、学习 好资料第五章:净现值和投资评价的其他方法1. 如果项目会带来常规的现金流, 回收期短于项目的生命周期意味着, 在折现率为 0 的情况 下,NPV为正值。折现率大于 0时,回收期依旧会短于项目的生命周期,但根据折现率小 于、等于、大于 IRR 的情况, NPV 可能为正、为零、为负。折现回收期包含了相关折现率 的影响。如果一个项目的折现回收期短于该项目的生命周期,NPV 一定为正值。2. 如果某项目有常规的现金流,而且NPV 为正,该项目回收期一定短于其生命周期。因为折现回收期是用与 NPV相同的折现值计算出来的,如果NPV为正,折现回收期也会短于该项目的生命周期。 NPV 为正表明未来流

2、入现金流大于初始投资成本,盈利指数必然大于1。如果NPV以特定的折现率 R计算出来为正值时,必然存在一个大于R的折现率 R'使得NPV 为 0,因此, IRR 必定大于必要报酬率。3. (1)回收期法就是简单地计算出一系列现金流的盈亏平衡点。其缺陷是忽略了货币的时 间价值,另外,也忽略了回收期以后的现金流量。 当某项目的回收期小于该项目的生命周期, 则可以接受;反之,则拒绝。回收期法决策作出的选择比较武断。(2)平均会计收益率为扣除所得税和折旧之后的项目平均收益除以整个项目期限内的平均账面投资额。 其最大的缺陷在于没有使用正确的原始材料, 其次也没有考虑到时间序列这个 因素。 一般某项

3、目的平均会计收益率大于公司的目标会计收益率,则可以接受;反之, 则拒绝。(3) 内部收益率就是令项目净现值为0 的贴现率。其缺陷在于没有办法对某些项目进行判 断,例如有多重内部收益率的项目, 而且对于融资型的项目以及投资型的项目判断标准截然 相反。对于投资型项目,若 IRR 大于贴现率,项目可以接受;反之,则拒绝。对于融资型 项目,若 IRR 小于贴现率,项目可以接受;反之,则拒绝。(4) 盈利指数是初始以后所有预期未来现金流量的现值和初始投资的比值。必须注意的是, 倘若初始投资期之后,在资金使用上还有限制,那盈利指数就会失效。对于独立项目,若PI 大于 1 ,项目可以接受;反之,则拒绝。(5

4、)净现值就是项目现金流量(包括了最初的投入)的现值,其具有三个特点:使用现 金流量;包含了项目全部现金流量;对现金流量进行了合理的折现。某项目NPV大于0 时,项目可接受;反之,则拒绝。4. 对于一个具有永续现金流的项目来说,回收期为:内部收益率为: 所以可得:这意味着对一个拥有相对固定现金流的长期项目而言,回收期越短,IRR越大,并且IRR近似等于回收期的倒数。5. 原因有很多,最主要的两个是运输成本以及汇率的原因。在美国制造生产可以接近于产品销售地, 极大的节省了运输成本。 同样运输时间的缩短也减少了商品的存货。 跟某些可能的 制造生产地来说, 选择美国可能可以一定程度上减少高额的劳动力成

5、本。还有一个重要因素是汇率,在美国制造生产所付出的生产成本用美元计算, 在美国的销售收入同样用美元计算, 这样可以避免汇率的波动对公司净利润的影响。6. 最大的问题就在于如何估计实际的现金流。确定一个适合的折现率也同样非常困难。回收期法最为容易,其次是平均会计收益率法,折现法(包括折现回收期法,NPV 法, IRR 法和 PI 法)都在实践中相对较难。7. 可以应用于非盈利公司,因为它们同样需要有效分配可能的资本,就像普通公司一样。不 过,非盈利公司的利润一般都不存在。例如, 慈善募捐有一个实际的机会成本,但是盈利却 很难度量。 即使盈利可以度量出来, 合适的必要报酬率也没有办法确定。在这种情

6、况下,回收期法常常被用到。另外,美国政府是使用实际成本/ 盈利分析来做资本预算的,但需要很长时间才可能平衡预算。8. 这种说法是错误的,如果项目B 的现金流流入的更早,而项目 A 的现金流流入较晚,在一个较低的折现率下, A 项目的 NPV 将超过 B 项目。不过,在项目风险相等的情况下,这 种说法是正确的。如果两个项目的生命周期相等,项目 B 的现金流在每一期都是项目 A 的 两倍,则 B 项目的 NPV 为 A 项目的两倍。9尽管A项目的盈利指数低于B项目但A项目具有较高的 NPV,所以应该选 A项目。盈利指数判断失误的原因在于 B 项目比 A 项目需要更少的投资额。只有在资金额受限的情

7、况下,公司的决策才会有误。10. ( 1)如果两个项目的现金流均相同,A项目将有更高的IRR,因为A项目的初期投资低于项目 B。(2)相同,因为项目 B 的初始投资额与现金流量都为项目 A 的两倍。11. B 项目将更加敏感。原因在于货币的时间价值。有较长期的未来现金流会对利率的变动 更加敏感,这种敏感度类似于债券的利率风险。12. MIRR 的计算方法是找到所有现金流出的现值以及项目结束后现金流入的未来值,然后计算出两笔现金流的IRF。因此,两笔现金流用同一利率(必要报酬率)折现,因此,MIRR不是真正的利率。相反,考虑IRF。如果你用初始投资的未来值计算出IRR就可以复制出项目未来的现金流

8、量。13. 这种说法是错误的。如果你将项目期末的内部现金流以必要报酬率计算NPV 和初始投资,你将会得到相同的NPV。但是,NPV并不涉及内部的现金流再投资的问题。14. 这种说法是不正确的。的确,如果你计算中间的所有现金的未来价值到项目结束流量的回报率,然后计算这个未来的价值和回报率的初步投资,你会得到相同的回报率。 然而,正如先前的问题,影响现金流的因素一旦产生不会影响IRR。15. 1. a. The payback period is the time that it takes for the cumulative undiscounted cash inflows to equal

9、 the initial investment.Project A:Cumulative cash flows Year 1 = $6,500 = $6,500Cumulative cash flows Year 2 = $6,500 + 4,000 = $10,500Companies can calculate a more precise value using fractional years. To calculate the fractionalpayback period, find the fraction of year 2 s cash flows that is need

10、ed for the company to havecumulative undiscounted cash flows of $10,000. Divide the difference between the initial investment and the cumulative undiscounted cash flows as of year 1 by the undiscounted cashflow of year 2. Payback period = 1 + ($10,000- $6,500) / $4,000 = 1.875 yearsProject B:Cumulat

11、ive cash flows Year 1 = $7,000 = $7,000Cumulative cash flows Year 2 = $7,000 + 4,000 = $11,000Cumulative cash flows Year 3 = $7,000 + 4,000 + 5,000 = $16,000To calculate the fractional payback period, find the fraction of year 3s cash flows that is nefor the company to have cumulative undiscounted c

12、ash flows of $12,000. Divide the difference between the initial investment and the cumulative undiscounted cash flows as of year 2 by the undiscounted cash flow of year 3.Payback period = 2 + ($12,000- 7,000- 4,000) / $5,000Payback period = 2.20 yearsSince project A has a shorter payback period than

13、 project B has, the company should chooseproject A.b. Discount each project s cash flows at 15 percent. Choose the project with the highest NPV.Project A:NPV = - $10,000 + $6,500 / 1.15 + $4,000 / 1.152 + $1,800 / 1.153=- $139.72Project B:NPV = - $12,000 + $7,000 / 1.15 + $4,000 / 1.152 + $5,000 / 1

14、.153= $399.11The firm should choose Project B since it has a higher NPV than Project A has.16. When we use discounted payback, we need to find the value of all cash flows today. The value today of the project cash flows for the first four years is:Value today of Year 1 cash flow = $6,000/1.14 = $5,2

15、63.16Value today of Year 2 cash flow = $6,500/1.142 = $5,001.54Value today of Year 3 cash flow = $7,000/1.143 = $4,724.80Value today of Year 4 cash flow = $8,000/1.144 = $4,736.64To find the discounted payback, we use these values to find the payback period. The discounted first year cash flow is $5

16、,263.16, so the discounted payback for an $8,000 initial cost is:Discounted payback = 1 + ($8,000- 5,263.16)/$5,001.54 = 1.55 yearsFor an initial cost of $13,000, the discounted payback is:Discounted payback = 2 + ($13,000- 5,263.16- 5,001.54)/$4,724.80 = 2.58 yearsNotice the calculation of discount

17、ed payback. We know the payback period is between two and three years, so we subtract the discounted values of the Year 1 and Year 2 cash flows from the initial cost. This is the numerator, which is the discounted amount we still need to make to recover our initial investment. We divide this amount

18、by the discounted amount we will earn in Year 3 to get the fractional portion of the discounted payback.If the initial cost is $18,000, the discounted payback is:Discounted payback = 3 + ($18,000- 5,263.16- 5,001.54- 4,724.80) / $4,736.64 = 3.64 years17. The IRR is the interest rate that makes the N

19、PV of the project equal to zero. So, the equation that defines the IRR for this project is:0 = C0 + C1 / (1 + IRR) + C2 / (1 + IRR)2 + C3 / (1 + IRR)30 =- $11,000 + $5,500/(1 + IRR) + $4,000/(1 + IRR)2 + $3,000/(1 + IRR)3Using a spreadsheet, financial calculator, or trial and error to find the root

20、of the equation, we find that:IRR = 7.46%Since the IRR is less than the required return we would reject the project.18. The IRR is the interest rate that makes the NPV of the project equal to zero. So, the equationthat defines the IRR for this Project A is:0 = C0 + C1 / (1 + IRR) + C2 / (1 + IRR)2 +

21、 C3 / (1 + IRR)30 =- $3,500 + $1,800/(1 + IRR) + $2,400/(1 + IRR)2 + $1,900/(1 + IRR)3Using a spreadsheet, financial calculator, or trial and error to find the root of the equation, we find that:IRR = 33.37%And the IRR for Project B is:0 = C0 + C1 / (1 + IRR) + C2 / (1 + IRR)2 + C3 / (1 + IRR)30 =-

22、$2,300 + $900/(1 + IRR) + $1,600/(1 + IRR)2 + $1,400/(1 + IRR)3Using a spreadsheet, financial calculator, or trial and error to find the root of the equation, we find that:IRR = 29.32%19. The profitability index is defined as the PV of the cash inflows divided by the PV of the cash outflows. The cas

23、h flows from this project are an annuity, so the equation for the profitability index is:PI = C(PVIFAR,t) / C0 PI = $65,000(PVIFA15%,7) / $190,000 PI = 1.42320. a. The profitability index is the present value of the future cash flows divided by the initial cost. So, for Project Alpha, the profitabil

24、ity index is:PIAlpha = $800 / 1.10 + $900 / 1.102 + $700 / 1.103 / $1,500 = 1.331And for Project Beta the profitability index is:PIBeta = $500 / 1.10 + $1,900 / 1.102 + $2,100 / 1.103 / $2,500 = 1.441b. According to the profitability index, you would accept Project Beta. However, remember the profit

25、ability index rule can lead to an incorrect decision when ranking mutually exclusive projects. Intermediate21. a. The IRR is the interest rate that makes the NPV of the project equal to zero. So, the IRR for each project is: Deepwater Fishing IRR:0 = C0 + C1 / (1 + IRR) + C2 / (1 + IRR)2 + C3 / (1 +

26、 IRR)30 =- $750,000 + $310,000 / (1 + IRR) + $430,000 / (1 + IRR)2 + $330,000 / (1 + IRR)3Using a spreadsheet, financial calculator, or trial and error to find the root of the equation, we find that: IRR = 19.83%Submarine Ride IRR:0 = C0 + C1 / (1 + IRR) + C2 / (1 + IRR)2 + C3 / (1 + IRR)30 = $2,100

27、,000 + $1,200,000 / (1 + IRR) + $760,000 / (1 + IRR)2 + $850,000 / (1 + IRR)3Using a spreadsheet, financial calculator, or trial and error to find the root of the equation, we find that:IRR = 17.36%Based on the IRR rule, the deepwater fishing project should be chosen because it has the higherIRR.b.

28、To calculate the incremental IRR, we subtract the smaller projects cash flows from the largeproject cash flows. In this case, we subtract the deepwater fishing cash flows from the submarine ride cash flows. The incremental IRR is the IRR of these incremental cash flows. So, the incremental cash flow

29、s of the submarine ride are:Year 0Year 1Year 2Year 3Submarine Ride-$2,100,000$1,200,000$760,000$850,000Deepwater Fishing-750,000310,000430,000330,000Submarine - Fishing-$1,350,000$890,000$330,000$520,000Setting the present value of these incremental cash flows equal to zero, we find the incrementalI

30、RR is:0 = C0 + C1 / (1 + IRR) + C2 / (1 + IRR)2 + C3 / (1 + IRR)30 =- $1,350,000 + $890,000 / (1 + IRR) + $330,000 / (1 + IRR)2 + $520,000 / (1 + IRR)3Using a spreadsheet, financial calculator, or trial and error to find the root of the equation, we find that:Incremental IRR = 15.78%For investing-ty

31、pe projects, accept the larger project when the incremental IRR is greater than the discount rate. Since the incremental IRR, 15.78%, is greater than the required rate of return of 14 percent, choose the submarine ride project. Note that this is not the choice when evaluating only the IRR of each pr

32、oject. The IRR decision rule is flawed because there is a scale problem. That is, the submarine ride has a greater initial investment than does the deepwater fishing project. This problem is corrected by calculating the IRR of the incremental cash flows, or by evaluating the NPV of each project.c. T

33、he NPV is the sum of the present value of the cash flows from the project, so the NPV of each project will be: Deepwater fishing:NPV = - $750,000 + $310,000 / 1.14 + $430,000 / 1.142 + $330,000 / 1.143 NPV = $75,541.46 Submarine ride:NPV = - $2,100,000+ $1,200,000 / 1.14 + $760,000 / 1.142 + $850,00

34、0 / 1.143 NPV =$111,152.69Since the NPV of the submarine ride project is greater than the NPV of the deepwater fishing project, choose the submarine ride project. The incremental IRR rule is always consistent with the NPV rule.22. a. The payback period is the time that it takes for the cumulative un

35、discounted cash inflows to equal the initial investment.Board game: Cumulative cash flows Year 1 = $700 = $700Payback period = $600 / $700 = .86 yearsCD-ROM:Cumulative cash flows Year 1 = $1,400 = $1,400Cumulative cash flows Year 2 = $1,400 + 900 = $2,300Payback period = 1 + ($1,900- 1,400)/ $900Pay

36、back period = 1.56 yearsSince the board game has a shorter payback period than the CD-ROM project, the company should choose the board game.b. The NPV is the sum of the present value of the cash flows from the project, so the NPV of eachproject will be:Board game: NPV = - $600 + $700 / 1.10 + $150 /

37、 1.102 + $100 / 1.103 NPV = $235.46CD-ROM: NPV = - $1,900 + $1,400 / 1.10 + $900 / 1.102 + $400 / 1.103 NPV = $417.05Since the NPV of the CD-ROM is greater than the NPV of the board game, choose the CD -ROM.c. The IRR is the interest rate that makes the NPV of a project equal to zero. So, the IRR of

38、 each project is:Board game: 0 =- $600 + $700 / (1 + IRR) + $150 / (1 + IRR)2 + $100 / (1 + IRR)3Using a spreadsheet, financial calculator, or trial and error to find the root of the equation, wefind that: IRR = 42.43%CD-ROM:0 =- $1,900 + $1,400 / (1 + IRR) + $900 / (1 + IRR)2 + $400 / (1 + IRR)3Usi

39、ng a spreadsheet, financial calculator, or trial and error to find the root of the equation, wefind that:IRR = 25.03%Since the IRR of the board game is greater than the IRR of the CD -ROM, IRR implies we choose the board game. Note that this is the choice when evaluating only the IRR of each project

40、. The IRR decision rule is flawed because there is a scale problem. That is, the CD -ROM has a greater initial investment than does the board game. This problem is corrected by calculating the IRR of the incremental cash flows, or by evaluating the NPV of each project.d. To calculate the incremental

41、 IRR, we subtract the smaller projects cash flows from the largeproject s cash flows. In this case, we subtract the board game cash flows from the CD-ROM cashflows. The incremental IRR is the IRR of these incremental cash flows. So, the incremental cash flows of the CD-ROM are:Year 0Year 1Year 2year

42、3CD-ROM-$1,900$1,400$900$400Board game-600700150100CD-ROM - Board game-$1,300$700$750$300Setting the present value of these incremental cash flows equal to zero, we find the incremental IRR is: 0 = C0 + C1 / (1 + IRR) + C2 / (1 + IRR)2 + C3 / (1 + IRR)30 =- $1,300 + $700 / (1 + IRR) + $750 / (1 + IR

43、R)2 + $300 / (1 + IRR)3Using a spreadsheet, financial calculator, or trial and error to find the root of the equation, we find that:Incremental IRR = 18.78%23. a. The payback period is the time that it takes for the cumulative undiscounted cash inflows to equal the initial investment.AZM Mini -SUV:

44、Cumulative cash flows Year 1 = $270,000 = $270,000Cumulative cash flows Year 2 = $270,000 + 180,000 = $450,000Payback period = 1+ $30,000 / $180,000 = 1.17 years AZF Full-SUV:Cumulative cash flows Year 1 = $250,000 = $250,000Cumulative cash flows Year 2 = $250,000 + 400,000 = $650,000Payback period

45、= 1+ $350,000 / $400,000 = 1.88 yearsSince the AZM has a shorter payback period than the AZF, the company should choose the AZM. Remember the payback period does not necessarily rank projects correctly.b. The NPV of each project is:NPVAZM = - $300,000 + $270,000 / 1.10 + $180,000 / 1.102 + $150,000

46、/ 1.103NPVAZM = $206,912.10NPVAZF = - $600,000 + $250,000 / 1.10 + $400,000 / 1.102 + $300,000 / 1.103NPVAZF = $183,245.68The NPV criteria implies we accept the AZM because it has the highest NPV.c. The IRR is the interest rate that makes the NPV of the project equal to zero. So, the IRR of theAZM i

47、s:0 =- $300,000 + $270,000 / (1 + IRR) + $180,000 / (1 + IRR)2 + $150,000 / (1 + IRR)3Using a spreadsheet, financial calculator, or trial and error to find the root of the equation, we find that:IRRAZM = 51.43%And the IRR of the AZF is:0 =- $600,000 + $250,000 / (1 + IRR) + $400,000 / (1 + IRR)2 + $

48、300,000 / (1 + IRR)3Using a spreadsheet, financial calculator, or trial and error to find the root of the equation, we find that:IRRAZF = 26.04%The IRR criteria implies we accept the AZM because it has the highest IRR. Remember the IRR does not necessarily rank projects correctlyd. Incremental IRR a

49、nalysis is not necessary. The AZM has the smallest initial investment, and the largest NPV, so it should be accepted.24. a. The profitability index is the PV of the future cash flows divided by the initial investment. The profitability index for each project is:PIA = $140,000 / 1.12 + $140,000 / 1.1

50、22 / $200,000 = 1.18PIB = $260,000 / 1.12 + $260,000 / 1.122 / $400,000 = 1.10PIC = $150,000 / 1.12 + $120,000 / 1.122 / $200,000 = 1.15b. The NPV of each project is:NPVA = - $200,000 + $140,000 / 1.12 + $140,000 / 1.122 NPVA = $36,607.14NPVB = $39,413.27NPVC = $29,591.84NPVB = - $400,000 + $260,000

51、 / 1.12 + $260,000 / 1.122NPVC = - $200,000 + $150,000 / 1.12 + $120,000 / 1.122c. Accept projects A, B, and C. Since the projects are independent, accept all three projects because the respective profitability index of each is greater than one.d. Accept Project B. Since the Projects are mutually ex

52、clusive, choose the Project with the highest PI, while taking into account the scale of the Project. Because Projects A and C have the same initial investment, the problem of scale does not arise when comparing the profitability indices. Based on the profitability index rule, Project C can be elimin

53、ated because its PI is less than the PI of Project A. Because of the problem of scale, we cannot compare the PIs of Projects A and B. However, we can calculate the PI of the incremental cash flows of the two projects, which are: ProjectC0C1C2B - A-$200,000$120,000$120,000When calculating incremental

54、 cash flows, remember to subtract the cash flows of the project with the smaller initial cash outflow from those of the project with the larger initial cash outflow. This procedure insures that the incremental initial cash outflow will be negative. The incremental PI calculation is:PI(B - A) = $120,

55、000 / 1.12 + $120,000 / 1.12 - 2 / $200,000 = 1.014The company should accept Project B since the PI of the incremental cash flows is greater than one.e. Remember that the NPV is additive across projects. Since we can spend $600,000, we could take two of the projects. In this case, we should take the

56、 two projects with the highest NPVs, which are Project B and Project A.25. a. The payback period is the time that it takes for the cumulative undiscounted cash inflows to equal the initial investment.Project A:Cumulative cash flows Year 1 = $190,000 = $190,000Cumulative cash flows Year 2 = $190,000

57、+ 170,000 = $360,000Payback period = 1 + ($90,000/$170,000) = 1.53 yearsProject B:Cumulative cash flows Year 1 = $270,000 = $270,000Cumulative cash flows Year 2 = $270,000 + 240,000 = $510,000Payback period = 1 + ($120,000/$240,000) = 1.50 yearsProject C:Cumulative cash flows Year 1 = $160,000 = $160,000Cumulative cash flows Year 2 = $160,000 + 190,000 = $350,000Payback period = 1 + ($70,000/$190,000) = 1.37 yearsProject C has the shortest payback period, so payback implies accepting Project C. However, the payback period does not necessarily rank projects correctly.b. T

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