SEPTQPRODUCTIONINLINEDBEREMAINBELOWFY13GUIDANCE1019

1、chris terry444036322812deutsche bankmarkets researchratingholdaustralasiaaustraliacompanynewcrest mining ltddate17 october 2012resultsm&m - goldprice at 18 oct 2012price target - 12mth27.9625.50reutersbloombergexchange ticker52 week range (aud)37.21 - 20.94ncm.axncm auasxncmall ordinaries4,551se

2、pt q production in line, dbe remainbelow fy13 guidancesept q production of 460.4koz au and 18.6kt cu at a$703/oz cash costsncm reported sept q production of 460.4koz au and 18.6kt cu at cash costsof a$703/oz, broadly in line with dbe of 469koz and 20.4kt at a$704/oz. theresult was consistent with gu

3、idance of 460koz issued on 21 sept. gold outputwas 22% lower qoq and cash costs up 16%, with issues at lihir and ridgewaywell flagged, however telfer and gosowong reported a lower than expectedgold contribution. production is expected to improve through fy13 andguidance of 2.3-2.5moz au remains unch

4、anged (dbe 2.24moz). with lihirmopu and cadia east remaining in the construction/commissioning stage, weremain cautious and maintain the hold rating.production issues at lihir, ridgeway, gosowong and telferhidden valley and bonikro were the only operations to report increasedproduction qoq, with ope

5、rational issues experienced at lihir, ridgeway,gosowong and telfer. problems at ridgeway and lihir were well flagged (nowresolved), however telfer (planned sag mill reline and motor maintenance;lower recoveries) and gosowong (poor ground conditions at kencana)performed worse than expected. for the b

6、alance of fy13, the companyexpects recoveries at telfer to rebound and gosowong to achieve the 400koztarget as higher grade underground positions are re-established.brett mckayresearch analyst(+61) 2 8258-mat hockingresearch associate(+61) 2 8258-research analyst(+61) 2 8258-price/price relativeguid

7、ance of 2.3-2.4moz remains unchanged, dbe at 2.25mozfy13 guidance of 2.3-2.5moz is unchanged, with production to lift through the242010/104/1110/114/12remainder of fy13. on average, the group needs to deliver 613koz per quarterfor the next 3 quarters to hit the bottom end of guidance. dbe remain bel

8、ownewcrest mining ltdall ordinaries (rebased)guidance at 2.25moz at a$626/oz cash costs (prev. 2.24moz at a$627/oz).cadia east and lihir mopu on schedule, although mopu budget stretchedcadia east remains scheduled for commercial production in dec q 12, with allperformance (%)absoluteall ordinaries1m

9、-3.83.03m31.99.512m-23.67.1plant and infrastructure now complete. mopu is targeted for start-up in dec q,however the us$1.3bn budget is stretched, with all the contingency used up.pt $25.50/sh (unchanged), valuation looking stretched. maintain hold.our npv of $21.15/sh (prev. $21.19/sh) is largely u

10、nchanged and our pricetarget remains $25.50/sh based on 1.2x p/npv. downside risks from operationunderperformance and commodity prices. upside risk from faster ramp-up atcadia east/lihir and higher commodity prices.forecasts and ratiosyear end jun 30eps (aud)% change2012a1.420.0%2013e1.58-0.0%2014e2

11、.780.7%2015e2.64-0.4%source: deutsche bank estimates, company datapre-exceptionals/extraordinariesmultiples and yields calculations use average historical prices for past years and spot prices for current and future years, except p/b_deutsche bank ag/sydneyall prices are those current at the end of

12、the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. prices are sourcedfrom local exchanges via reuters, bloomberg and other vendors. data is sourced from deutsche bank and subjectcompanies. deutsche bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. thus,investor

13、s should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. disclosures andanalyst certifications are located in appendix 1. mica(p) 072/04/2012.322

14、8444017 october 2012m&m - goldnewcrest mining ltdmodel updated:18 october 2012fiscal year end 30-jun2010201120122013e2014e2015erunning the numbersfinancial summaryaustralasiaaustraliam&m - goldnewcrest mining ltddb eps (aud)reported eps (aud)dps (aud)bvps (aud)valuation metricsprice/sales (x

15、)1.581.150.2501.200.5018.007.11.421.460.1419.555.71.581.580.4220.834.42.782.780.7642.640.9125.223.2reuters: ncm.axholdprice (18 oct 12)target price52 week rangemarket cap (m)bloomberg: ncm auaud 27.96aud 25.50aud 20.94 - 37.21audm 21,422p/e (db) (x)p/e (reported) (x)p/bv (x)fcf

16、 yield (%)dividend yield (%)ev/salesev/ebitdaev/ebit11.314.427.532.12.1nm19.0nm0.46.012.617.017.717.71.3nm1.55.09.712.210.010.03.66.07.210.67.3usdm 22,213income statement (audm)company profilenewcrest mining ltd is an australia-bas

17、ed gold companyheadquartered in melbourne. it is engaged in theexploration, development, mining and sale of gold andgold/copper concentrates in australia, indonesia, fiji, theunited states, peru, png, west africa and chile. thecompanys current activities include development projectssuch as (cadia ea

18、st open pit and underground, ridgewaydeeps and kencana k2) and operating mines (telfer, cadiahill, ridgeway, cadia valley east, lihir island, gosowong,hidden valley, bonikro, mt rawdon and cracow).price performance444036salesebitdaebitpre-tax profitnet incomecash flow (audm)cash flow from operations

19、net capexfree cash flowequity raised/(bought back)dividends paidnet inc/(dec) in borrowingsother investing/financing cash flowsnet cash flowchange in working capital2,8021,4281,1278115571,303-786518-16-112-3-9288-54,1022,0451,5441,3009081,729-1,890-1610-231427-367-434-3624,4162,1131,5711,5771,1171,7

20、26-2,556-8300-4051,543-89611834,8172,4821,9741,8121,2071,484-1,647-1630-220445-44-14106,7133,9493,3293,1622,1332,931-1,2541,6770-365-135-4497306,6633,7833,1282,9902,0252,846-1,2111,6350-434-53-449450balance sheet (audm)2420oct 10jan 11apr 11 jul 11 oct 11 jan 12apr 12 jul 12newcrest mining ltdall or

21、dinaries (rebased)margin trends60565248cash and cash equivalentsproperty, plant & equipmentgoodwillother assetstotal assetsdebtother liabilitiestotal liabilitiestotal shareholders equitynet debt6431,76403,9266,3344278981,3245310013,78717,2828002,6073,40713,8756152424,364015,90320,50

22、92,4083,0075,41515,0942,1661015,503016,39922,0032,8533,0075,86016,1432,7521,0746,138016,50523,7162,7183,0075,72517,9911,6442,0196,693016,61125,3232,6663,0075,67319,650647key company metrics363210111213e14e15esales growth (%)db eps growth (%)10.753.346.4-76.7-0.8-5.0ebitda margin

23、growth & profitability50403020ebit margin201510payout ratio (%)ebitda margin (%)ebit margin (%)roe (%)net debt/equity (%)net interest cover (x)21.751.040.216.8-4.353.741.649.9117.09.747.835.67.514.4-785.426.551.541.07.917.0-521.227.258.849.612.79.1-413.134.656.846.910.93.3-91.21005dupo

24、nt analysis-100ebit margin (%)40.237.635.641.049.646.910111213e14e15ex asset turnover (x)x financial cost ratio (x)1.01.01.0solvency20151050-5sales growth (lhs)roe (rhs)2000-200-400-600-800 x tax and other effects (x)= roa (post tax) (%)x financial leverage (x)= roe (%)ann

25、ual growth (%)x nta/share (avg) (x)= reported epsannual growth (%)12.251.27.8-01.37.7-1.519.01.4620.01.51.412.761.022.02.781.310.9-13.724.22.64-5.0-10-1000source: company data, deutsche bank estimates10111213e14

26、e15enet debt/equity (lhs)brett mckay+61 2 8258-2607page 2net interest cover (rhs)deutsche bank ag/sydney-8000.606838057350-epsdps17 october 2012m&m - goldnewcrest mining ltdhj_13newcrest operational summary datainput assum ptionsaudusdgold (us$/oz)silver (us$/oz)copper (us$/lb)fy10a0.881,09316.8

27、83.04fy11a0.991,37328.953.94fy12a1.031,67233.183.70fy13f1.031,88737.863.63fy14f1.002,10042.923.49fy15f0.961,87837.133.32fy16f0.911,63431.383.15fy17f0.891,51328.503.06npv (hj13)telfercadia valleygosowonghidden valleya$m n1,0565,5911,852446a$/sh1.387.302.420.58(%)7%35%11%3%lihir island8,79511.4854%gol

28、d production (equity), kozbonikro4120.543%telfercadia valleygosowonghidden valleylihir islandbonikro689498443606215154631007915054047343989604925304353899770286.45306344201229971025146833961221,1401275157053961221,1851705167253961221,246170wafi golpuexplorationevolution (evn.asx)corporate/othernet d

29、ebttotal1241,500486(1,308)(2,752)16,2020.161.960.63(1.71)(3.59)21.151%9%3%-8%-17%100%cracow and mt. rawdon7216148w acc8.7%shares766mtot al1,7612,702 2,286 2,238 2,806 2,981 3,093 3,176% change53%-15%-2%25%6%4%3%gold & audus ds ilv er production (equity), koztelfer3733672582002002002002,2002,0001

30、.101.00cadia valleygosowong1326982663874202713433893164403164403164403164401,8001,6000.90hidden valleytot al2861,116716 858 636 1,125 1,071 1,008 1,4691,743 1,916 1,626 2,081 2,027 1,964 2,4241,4001,2000.80% change56%10%-15%28%-3%-3%23%1,0000.70copper production (equity), ktfy10a fy11a fy12a fy13f f

31、y14f fy15f fy16ftelfercadia valleytot al% change355287324476-13%3145761%2657839%237710021%23801044%24801051%257499-5%gold (us$/oz)copper & s ilver50.00audusd (rhs)4.5045.00cas h cos ts , a$/oztelfercadia valleygosowong4991203016742993227844224058713304801,0351904541,0681424771,032944779961174774

32、0.0035.0030.0025.0020.004.003.503.00hidden valleylihir islandbonikrow . av erage417-3191,0104191,2444501,2595609036051,2235998126261,13558971559195564759159189553955352772045554348315.0010.005.00-fy10a fy11a fy12a fy13f fy14f fy15f fy16f2.502.00capex , a$msilver (us$/oz)copper (us$/lb)telfer80849480

33、80808040revenue split by com m oditycadia valleygosowonghidden valleylihir islandbonikroother (incl. ocallaghans, namosi & golpu)tot al338190118603-1,3291,078203361841351,9081,1691005086165542,3937004080600271201,6473604020398762801,25426040202072364461,2892354020191374221,0252104020174184209228

34、000700060005000400030006773,2186253,527 3,6366654,1317885,882 5,8268125,4377714,8257284,1668353,756 3,8102000eps s ens itiv ity (for 10% move)fy13fy14mozev a$/oz ev us$/oz1000goldcopperaudusd19%3%-20%18%2%-19%reservesresources80.0147.5291.19157.933011630total goldtotal coppertotal silverproduction v

35、/s cash costscash, debt & gearing (%)free cashflow v/s capex4,0003,0002,0001,000-fy10a fy11a fy12a fy13f fy14f fy15f fy16f800600400200-35003000250020001500100050020.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%3,0002,0001,000-(1,000)(2,000)teflercadia valleygosowong2010a 2011a 2012a 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e201

36、0a 2011a 2012a 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016ehidden valleycash costs (a$/oz)lihir islandbonikorocashdebtnet debt/nd + ecapexfcfearnings & dividend300250200150100500price to earnings30.025.020.015.010.05.0ev /ebitda16.014.012.010.08.06.04.02.02010a 2011a 2012a 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016esource: company data

37、, db estimates, datastreamdeutsche bank ag/sydney2010a 2011a 2012a 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e0.02010a 2011a 2012a 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016epage 317 october 2012m&m - goldnewcrest mining ltdsummary of september quarter production resultsncm has reported september quarter production of 460.4koz gold an

38、d 18.6kt copper atcash costs of a$703/oz, broadly inline with dbe of 469koz and 20.4kt at a$704/oz. theresult was consistent with guidance of 460koz issued on 21 sept.gold output was 22% lower qoq and cash costs up 16% due mainly to productionissues at lihir and ridgeway, however telfer and gosowong

39、 also reported a lower thanexpected contribution in the period. both the conveyor issue at ridgeway and theoxygen plant electrical problem at lihir have now been resolved. poor groundconditions at gosowong limited access to high grade ore at kencana, resulting in morelow grade open pit ore being pro

40、cessed. grades are expected to improve through fy13and the 400koz production target has been maintained at gosowong.a planned mill reline and maintenance program at telfer reduced mill throughput in theperiod, with weaker production also resulting from lower recovery (64% vs 70% in junequarter). rec

41、overy should improve as more main dome open pit ore is added to the millfeed blend relative to the poorly recovering west dome ore.whilst production improved 10% qoq at bonikro, cash costs increased 20% qoq dueto the use of temporary crushing, with the main crusher undergoing refurbishmentthrough 1h

42、 fy13.copper production was down 9% qoq and 9% below dbe due to lower grades at cadiaand reduced mill throughput at telfer.figure 1: quarterly production and cash cost dataproduction (koz)telfercvocadia hill/stockpilesridgewaycadia eastgosowong (100%)hidden valley (50%)lihir islandbonikro (100%)tota

43、l au productiontotal cu productioncash costs (a$/oz)telfercvogosowong (100%)hidden valley (50%)lihir islandbonikro (100%)totalq1 12a137.2150.395.654.40.379.825.5134.722.755019.2q1 12a827281508898586897594q2 12a135.4118.260.855.32.1107.526.2157.123.856818.2q2 12a8004074041090554968606q3 12a135.786.93

44、3.950.72.3118.915.8149.525.553218.1q3 12a6607143671716529899609q4 12a131.8117.951.262.93.7133.221.3163.120.058720.5q4 12a8494123801562571817604q1 13a110.495.537.554.73.381.122.1129.322.0460.418.6q1 13a9394305511355632979703qoq %-16%-19%-27%-13%-12%-39%4%-21%10%-22%-9%qoq %11%4%45%-13%11%20%16%q1 13

45、dbe117.489.432.953.43.288.319.9131.922.246920.4q1 13 dbe10213155041486696737704% var-6%7%14%2%4%-8%11%-2%-1%-2%-9% var-8%37%9%-9%-9%33%0%source: deutsche bank, newcrest reportspage 4deutsche bank ag/sydneygoldproduction(koz)cashcosts(a$/oz)millthroughput(kt)headgrade(g/t)17 october 2012m&m - gol

46、dnewcrest mining ltdreview of operationscadia valley operations (cvo)gold production of 95.5koz was 19% lower qoq and 7% above dbe. lower qoq goldoutput was driven by (i) lower feed grades as stockpiled ore was treated following thecompletion of open pit mining at cadia hill in the previous quarter

47、and (ii) ridgewayconveyor breakdown (now repaired). lower grade stockpiles will continue tosupplement mill feed over the next two years as cadia east ramps up and lifts milledgrades.mill throughput increased 10% qoq with the completion of plant and infrastructureupgrades associated with the cadia ea

48、st expansion and commissioning of the highpressure grinding rolls (hpgrs).costs on a per tonne basis reduced qoq as a result of lower cost stockpile feed,however c1 costs increased by $18/oz to $430/oz, whilst lower d&a reduced total costsby $19/oz to $693/oz.we have left fy13 production assumpt

49、ions largely unchanged with the sources of millfeed consistent with the recently presented profile.figure 2: fy12-13 cvo production and cash costsfigure 3: fy12-13 cvo throughput and gold recovery160.0140.0120.0100.080.060.040.020.00.0q1 12a q2 12a q3 12a q4 12a q1 13 a q2 13e q3 13e q4 13e700.0600.

50、0500.0400.0300.0200.0100.00.07,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,0000q1 12a q2 12a q3 12a q4 12a q1 13 a q2 13e q3 13e q4 13e1.201.000.800.600.400.200.00source: deutsche bankcadia hill/stockpilescadia eastridgewaycvo c1 cash costs (a$/oz)source: deutsche bankcadia hill/stockpilescadia eastridgewaycvo he

51、ad grade (g/t)lihirlihir produced 129.3koz gold in the september quarter, down 21% qoq and 2% belowdbe. lower production was the result of two issues, both of which were well flagged inthe period. a 3 day shutdown in august was the result of a landowner dispute, withproduction more significantly imp

52、acted by an electrical fault in the oxygen plant whichreduced capacity to 25% for 10 days. fy13 production guidance of 700-900koz remainsunchanged. c1 cash costs increased 11% qoq to a$632/oz.the mopu project remains scheduled for completion in the december quarter, howeverthe us$1.3bn budget appear

53、s stretched with the entire contingency now used up. theoxygen plant and grinding circuit are the final plant components to be completed.deutsche bank ag/sydneypage 5goldproduction(koz)millthroughput(kt)cashcosts(a$/oz)goldproduction(koz)millthroughput(kt)cashcosts(a$/oz)headgrade(g/t)headgrade(g/t)

54、17 october 2012m&m - goldnewcrest mining ltdfigure 4: fy12-13 lihir production and cash costsfigure 5: fy12-13 lihir throughput and head grade250.0200.0150.0700.0600.0500.0400.02500.02000.01500.05.004.504.003.503.002.50100.050.00.0q1 12a q2 12a q3 12a q4 12a q1 13 a q2 13e q3 13e q4 13e300.0200.

55、0100.00.01000.0500.00.0q1 12a q2 12a q3 12a q4 12a q1 13 a q2 13e q3 13e q4 13e2.001.501.000.500.00gold production (actuals)gold production (dbe)cash costs pre royalty (c1)mill throughput (actuals)mill throughput (dbe)head grade (g/t)source: deutsche banksource: deutsche bankgosowonggold production

56、of 81.1koz (100%) was 39% lower qoq as a result of unexpected poorground conditions restricting access to higher grade underground ore at kencana. anincreased proportion of ore from the gosowong open pit reduced grade from 20.2g/t auin the june quarter to 12.1g/t au in the september quarter. with hi

57、gher grade faces atkencana to be re-established in the december quarter, the company has reiteratedexpectations of 400koz in fy13.cash costs of a$551/oz increased from a$380/oz in the previous quarter.figure 6: : fy12-13 gosowong production and cash costsfigure 7: fy12-13 gosowong throughput and hea

58、d grade140.0120.0100.080.0600.0500.0400.0250.0200.0150.025.0020.0015.00300.060.040.0200.0100.010.0020.00.0q1 12a q2 12a q3 12a q4 12a q1 13 a q2 13e q3 13e q4 13e100.00.050.00.0q1 12a q2 12a q3 12a q4 12a q1 13 a q2 13e q3 13e q4 13e5.000.00gold production (actuals)gold production (dbe)cash costs pr

59、e royalty (c1)mill throughput (actuals)mill throughput (dbe)head grade (g/t)source: deutsche banksource: deutsche banktelfertelfer produced 110.4koz gold in the period, down 16% qoq and 6% below dbe. cashcosts of $939/oz are up 11% qoq , however 8% below dbe. lower production resultedfrom reduced mi

60、ll throughput due to a planned sag mill reline and motor maintenance.production was also impacted by an increased proportion of west dome open pit orewhich contained higher sulfur and impacted recovery. mill recovery dropped from 70%page 6deutsche bank ag/sydneygoldproduction(koz)millthroughput(kt)cashcosts(a$/oz)goldrecovery%0.00.00.017 october 2012m&m -