BHPBILLITONLTDBHP.AX1Q13GROWINGVOLUMES8INFY131018

1、524844bhp billiton ltd12deutsche bankmarkets researchratingbuyaustralasiaaustraliacompanybhp billiton ltddate17 october 2012resultsm&m - diversifiedresourcesreutersbloombergexchange tickerprice at 17 oct 2012price target - 12mth52 week range (aud)33.4541.0038.69 - 30.18bhp.axbhp auasxbhpall ordi

2、naries4,5141q13 - growing volumes 8% in fy13paul youngresearch analystgrant sporreresearch analystthe top 3 (copper, iron ore, petroleum) will drive a strong fy13maintenance and project tie-ins in the q obscured the production reboundexpected in fy13. down time in copper (-12% qoq) and iron ore (-3%

3、) offsetthe rebound in the gom (petroleum +9%) and met coal (+10%). we expect arecovery in volumes over the remainder of the year, and for bhpbs top 3commodities, which represent c. 90% of group ebit, to drive an 8% increase incu eq production. importantly, key guidance has been maintained(240mmboe,

4、 +5% in the pilbara, +20% at escondida). we remain slightlyabove these estimates. buy on valuation (c. 0.8xnpv).a solid result despite maintenance impacts; petroleum was a positive surprisemost key assets performed strongly during the quarter with the exception ofthose impacted by maintenance (escon

5、dida, olympic dam, port hedland).(+61) 2 8258-2587paul-kaan pekerresearch analyst(+61) 2 8258-price/price relative(+44) 20 754-importantly, operations that have been underperforming are reboundingstrongly (the gom, hillside, met coal). although production was slightly belowour estimates, group produ

6、ction (cu eq) is set to increase by 8% in fy13,following a 2% decline in fy12 (excluding us onshore volumes), and a further4036322810/104/1110/114/1211% in fy14. production guidance for the key 3 commodities has beenmaintained at; 240mmboe of petroleum (100mmboe us onshore, 140mmboeall ordinaries (r

7、ebased)conventional), 182mt of iron ore from the pilbara and a 20% increase in copperfrom escondida (1.07mt). all appear achievable in our view. we model 2%higher petroleum and iron ore volumes but have trimmed our forecasts, and in-line production at escondida (this is grade dependent rather than t

8、hroughput).performance (%)absoluteall ordinaries1m-2.02.13m8.68.112m-11.24.1project news - capex guidance maintainedstock datacapex guidance has been maintained at us$22bn with us$4bn allocated tous onshore. we model us$5bn, the difference is our expectations of c. 100wells in the permian vs. compan

9、y guidance of “more than 60”. in met coal,capex for the 5.5mtpa caval ridge project has been revised down us$0.5bn tous$3.7bn (100% basis) after the removal of the peak downs mine expansion.we point out that the wash plant is sized for 10mtpa, even so, adjusting forthis, capital intensity is still w

10、ell above us$550/t.valuation and risksour pt is set broadly in line with our a$41.00/sh npv using a nominal waccof 8.9%. risks: variance in commodity prices/exchange rates, project timing.forecasts and ratiosmarket cap (audm)market cap (usdm)shares outstanding (m)daily volume (usdm)free float177,991

11、182,6535,321.1340.63100.00year end jun 30net profit (usdm)eps (usd)% changeper (x)2011a21,6844.060.0%10.52012a17,1173.200.0%11.72013e13,5852.54-2.3%13.52014e16,3553.06-1.3%11.22015e18,3003.420.1%10.0source: deutsche bank estimates, company datapre-exceptionals/extraordinariesmultiples and yields cal

12、culations use average historical prices for past years and spot prices for current and future years, except p/b_deutsche bank ag/sydneyall prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. prices are sourcedfrom local exchanges via reuters, bloomberg and

13、 other vendors. data is sourced from deutsche bank and subjectcompanies. deutsche bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. thus,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.investors

14、 should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. disclosures andanalyst certifications are located in appendix 1. mica(p) 072/04/2012.403617 october 2012m&m - diversified resourcesbhp billiton ltdmodel updated:17 october 2012fiscal year end 30-jun20102011

15、20122013e2014e2015erunning the numbersfinancial summaryaustralasiaaustraliam&m - diversified resourcesbhp billiton ltddb eps (usd)reported eps (usd)dps (usd)bvps (usd)valuation metricsprice/sales (x)2.232.270.878.723.74.064.421.0110.681.1212.382.82.542.541.1514.322.63.063.061.1915.562

16、.33.423.421.2317.282.2reuters: bhp.axbuyprice (17 oct 12)target price52 week rangemarket cap (m)bloomberg: bhp auaud 33.45aud 41.00aud 30.18 - 38.69audm 177,991p/e (db) (x)p/e (reported) (x)p/bv (x)fcf yield (%)dividend yield (%)ev/salesev/ebitdaev/ebit15.63.26

17、.88.011.713.03.03.43.07.09.36.17.910.010.0usdm 182,653income statement (usdm)company profilebhp billiton limited is an international resourcescompany. the companys principal business lines aremineral exploration and production, inclu

18、ding coal, ironore, gold, titanium, ferroalloys, nickel and copperconcentrate, as well as petroleum exploration, production,and refining.price performance524844salesebitdaebitpre-tax profitnet incomecash flow (usdm)cash flow from operationsnet capexfree cash flowequity raised/(bought back)dividends

19、paidnet inc/(dec) in borrowingsother investing/financing cash flowsnet cash flowchange in working capital52,79824,51319,71919,57212,72217,920-9,1918,72912-4,895-588-3021,5982,11571,73934,12329,01031,25523,64831,061-11,06719,994-9,828-5,144-799-5,355-2,402-46172,22632,68826,18023,02215,41726,382-18,2

20、268,156-62-5,9339,007-14,019-4,7477670,41529,82722,45521,49113,58522,607-18,5744,0330-6,1184,000845459-66678,73234,92526,67425,60316,35523,722-17,4946,2270-6,3262,200-1,7012763,30683,35938,41530,13028,95518,30026,993-19,0337,9600-6,5212,50002,3521,822balance sheet (usdm)3228oct 10jan 11apr 11 jul 11

21、 oct 11 jan 12apr 12 jul 12cash and cash equivalentsproperty, plant & equipmentgoodwill12,45655,57641410,08468,4685444,78195,2473,0786,085108,4693,4764,661119,4043,8057,013130,1534,092bhp billiton ltdmargin trends484440all ordinaries (rebased)other assetstotal assetsdebtother liabilitiestotal li

22、abilitiestotal shareholders equitynet debt20,40688,85215,76423,75939,52349,3293,30823,795102,89115,90729,22945,13657,7555,82326,167129,27328,33033,85862,18867,08523,54926,033144,06332,33034,23966,56977,49426,24528,129155,99934,53037,31771,84784,15229,86929,336170,59437,03040,19777,22793,36730,017363

23、22810111213e14e15ekey company metricssales growth (%)db eps growth (%)5.216.435.982.00.7-21.1-2.5-20.611.820.45.911.9ebitda margingrowth & profitability403020ebit margin504030payout ratio (%)ebitda margin (%)ebit margin (%)roe (%)net debt/equity (%)net interest cover (x)38.146.437.328.26.743.022

24、.747.640.438.745.336.227.935.135.945.042.431.919.133.923.338.744.433.920.635.524.935.632.125.61020010dupont analysis-100ebit margin (%)37.340.436.231.933.936.110111213e14e15ex asset turnover (x)x financial cost ratio (x)1.01.01.01.01.01.0solvency40302010sale

25、s growth (lhs)roe (rhs)605040302010 x tax and other effects (x)= roa (post tax) (%)x financial leverage (x)= roe (%)annual growth (%)x nta/share (avg) (x)= reported epsannual growth (%)0.715.21.928.87116.60.824.71.844.9294.50.613.31.925.1-44.011.52.88-1.919.1-23.913.32.

26、54-11.90.610.91.920.67.614.93.0620.40.611.21.920.91.816.33.4211.900source: company data, deutsche bank estimates10111213e14e15enet debt/equity (lhs)paul young+61 2 8258-2587page 2net interest cover (rhs)paul-deutsche bank ag/sydneystmaterials3%0%conventional0% 9%17 october 2012m&m - diversified

27、resourcesbhp billiton ltdbhp billiton operational and financial summary datafx /commodit ies (nom inal)audusdgold (us$/oz)oil - wti (us$/bbl)copper (us$/lb)aluminium (us$/lb)nickel (us$/lb)iron ore - lump (us$/t) - fobiron ore - fines (us$/t) - fobiron ore - fines (us$/t) - cifcoking coal (us$/t)ste

28、aming coal (us$/t)us natural gas (us$/mmbtu)potash (us$/t)fy10a0.881,093753.040.928.8288.675.483.4146.877.84.08456fy11a0.991,373903.941.0810.88168.8153.8161.8251.3106.04.20433fy12a1.031,673953.700.998.76152.2140.3148.3261.3126.33.08438fy13f1.031,887993.630.948.14119.8107.8115.8183.8110.53.33475fy14f

29、1.002,1001043.490.988.73119.0107.0115.0197.598.84.03500fy15f0.961,8781003.321.028.96119.0107.0115.0193.8102.64.50450fy16f0.911,6341033.151.058.73109.097.0105.0181.397.14.75450fy17f0.861,3911052.981.088.5199.087.095.0168.891.64.75450fy18f0.821,3301083.281.309.60103.289.397.3181.299.94.87461fy19f0.801

30、,3631103.371.339.84105.891.599.5185.7102.44.99473fy20f0.801,3971133.451.3610.09108.493.8101.8190.4104.95.12485npv (hj13)aluminiumbase metalsdiamonds & potashenergy coaliron oremanganesemet coalpetroleum - shale gaspetroleum - conventionalstainless steel materialsgroup & unallocatedinvestment

31、s and otherless net debtus $m598634960750473527525326801043520474376445389-71812000-26562us $/sh1.126.571.411.3814.140.501.963.857.071.01-1.350.38-4.99au$/sh1.367.921.701.6617.040.612.364.648.521.22-1.630.45-4.86t ot al175,93433.0640.99key financial met ricsunder lying ear nings (us $m)12,46921,6841

32、7,11713,58516,35518,30017,58416,32620,10421,23821,353w acc (nom inal)8.9%s har es5,321.1moperating cash flow (us$m)capex (incl. exploration) and divestments (us$m)dividend (us$m)acquisitions (us$m)fr ee cash flow (us $m) - bef ore debt & equitynet debt (us$m)gear ing (nd/e - %)roe (%)roa (%)eps

33、(usc)dps (usc)17,920(10,355)(4,895)(660)2,0103,3086.7%28.2%27.6%2278731,061(12,400)(5,144)(5,045)8,4725,82310.1%41.2%33.8%44210126,382(20,741)(5,933)(12,897)(13,189)23,54935.1%27.9%23.5%28811222,607(20,029)(6,118)-(3,541)26,24533.9%19.1%17.2%25411523,722(19,320)(6,326)-(1,924)29,86935.5%20.6%18.3%30

34、611926,993(20,620)(6,521)-(148)30,01732.1%20.9%19.3%34212328,723(19,959)(6,713)-2,05227,96527.0%18.1%17.4%32912628,679(18,438)(6,915)-3,32624,63921.9%15.3%15.6%30513030,200(18,088)(7,100)-5,01219,62716.1%17.4%17.8%37613433,576(15,651)(7,307)-10,6179,0096.7%16.8%18.5%39713835,012(15,480)(7,526)-12,00

35、6(2,997)-2.1%15.5%18.3%399142payout ratio (%)39%25%35%45%39%36%38%43%36%35%36%v aluat ion (hj2013)p roduct ioncopper (kt)iron ore (mt) - attributableiron ore (mt) - pilbara (100%)petroleum (mmboe) - shale gaspetroleum (mmboe) - conventionalpetroleum (mmboe) - totalcoal - hard coking (mt)coal - therm

36、al (mt)aluminium (kt)diamonds (kcts)nickel (kt)manganese ore (kt)1,075421342413,0501766,7651,13942144615315933701,2462,5061537,0111,094451748613722233711,1531,7841587,8791,177461859914224135771,1961,8751668,1941,3415021114015129137771,2622,1871608,5841,42821123116914231240791,2411,79816

37、07,9501,41822424519213432642801,2641,8041607,9501,39023025322912635543801,2651,8011607,9501,49323025324912737644811,2771,8021607,9501,50723025326512839345821,2841,8011607,9501,50723025327112839945821,2841,8011607,950petroleum -shale gas10%met coal5%manganese1%iron ore36%petroleum -conventional18%sta

38、inless steelmaterials3%aluminium3%base metals17%diamonds &potash4%energy coal3%manganese alloys (kt)potash (mt)602-774-688-514-534-540-548-5441.05462.05453.05454.0revenue split (2013f)rev enue (us $m)petroleum - shale gaspetroleum - conventional-8,78210710,6302,16910,7682,94712,0404,83713,5446,8

39、6112,9677,60013,2458,64013,5669,10814,8519,64715,5399,68516,080iron ore26%petroleum - totalaluminiumbase metalsiron ore8,7824,35310,40911,13910,7375,22114,15220,41212,9374,76611,59622,60114,9885,06213,76218,61718,3815,49514,86620,90319,8295,64614,73423,40020,8455,92913,82822,67222,2056,15212,71121,1

40、9423,9596,84014,44821,88125,1867,46014,89022,43225,7647,66114,66422,984base metals20%met coal8%diamonds &potash1%met coalmanganesediamonds & potashenergy coal6,0592,1501,2724,2657,5732,4231,5175,5077,5762,1521,3266,0225,8612,4266046,1516,6662,6596255,7557,1072,3804626,2747,0392,3844646,1016,

41、8502,3549135,8417,4852,5281,3976,3197,7722,5891,9056,4937,9662,6542,4376,615aluminium7%manganese4%energy coal9%stainless steel materialsgroup & unallocated and intersegmentt otal3,617752527983,861336717392,993257722263,026272707693,116305787703,205322833593,121320827023,046316815823,371343885723

42、,455358925393,33436594445pet roleum -conventional17%petroleum -shale gas4%st ainless steelmaterials4%cap ex (us $m)gr owthcapex split (2013f)petroleum - shale gaspetroleum - conventionalpetroleum - totalaluminiumbase metalscarbon steel materialsdiamonds & specialty productspotashenergy coalstain

43、less steel materialsother (represents small projects)t otal growt hs ustainingt otal capexexplorationt otal capex incl. explorat ion-1,0251,0258441543,703(68)80673415877,0393,01410,0531,33311,3861631,1781,3411,0938493,81174160451345938,2163,39411,6101,24012,8503,2931,8715,1646371,8547,21219730758514

44、3(351)15,7484,48120,2302,39322,6235,0001,3086,308501,4255,370-400400401,00014,9935,51120,5041,46621,9705,5008056,305501,2503,685-8005040-12,1805,31417,4941,83619,3316,6509107,560501,0002,000-3,000-13,6105,42319,0331,58620,6206,9259547,879-1,2501,000-3,000-13,1295,24318,3721,58619,9596,7507907,540-1,

45、0001,000-2,000-11,5405,31216,8521,58618,4386,7504517,201-300824-2,377-10,7035,79116,4941,59418,0885,9004176,317-518-1,218-8,0536,00014,0531,59815,6515,5504235,973-513-1,249-7,7346,14113,8761,60415,480diamonds & potash energy coal ainless steelspecialty 3%products0%petroleum -shale gas36%carbon s

46、teelmaterials39%pet roleum -base met als aluminium10%ebit split (2013f)ebit (us $m)petroleum - shale gaspetroleum - conventional2994,2743545,976-1406,488-1397,6731,2737,7083,6036,9264,7306,5845,6316,3376,1916,6396,2066,9115,8947,101petroleum - totalaluminiumbase metalscarbon steel materialsdiamonds

47、& specialty productsenergy coalstainless steel materialsgroup & unallocatedt otal457340646328766485730668-5411971963302666790166955871129588-405319806348-291396516006199122732-319271677534-23753499516101914-5-673224988981-9464561127999503336-716268441052978603213156-40820436-8803013011314175

48、505512358-37664394-10302889311968215393410933-105398347-10512663912830342545712423264778778-10593181313117733595712998425866822-10873383112995805593613382846908655-111834409base metals21%aluminium-1%iron ore39%met coal-3%diamonds0%manganese2%ebit m arginspetroleum -conventionalenergy coalpetroleum -

49、 ssm 4%petroleum - shale gaspetroleum - conventional-52%32%62%-6%60%-5%64%24%59%45%58%50%58%50%58%49%59%46%59%43%60%30%shale gas-2%0%petroleum - totalaluminiumbase metalscarbon steel materialsdiamonds & specialty productsenergy coalstainless steel materialst otal52%9%44%45%38%17%18%37%59%5%48%55

50、%39%21%15%45%49%-6%34%50%15%20%1%38%50%-5%39%35%17%15%0%32%49%-2%43%37%16%9%11%34%53%1%41%40%-9%13%14%36%54%3%37%39%-8%11%13%35%54%3%31%36%-11%7%11%33%54%5%38%39%19%12%23%36%52%10%40%40%22%13%24%37%50%11%40%40%35%14%20%36%source: company data, db estimatesdeutsche bank ag/sydneypage 317 october 2012

51、m&m - diversified resourcesbhp billiton ltdseptember quarter snapshotfigure 1: bhpb production summary(bhpb share unlessunits1q122q123q124q121q 131q 13quarterly comp.fy13efy14eotherwise stated)(dbe)(a)v 1qfy12v dbealuminiumaluminaaluminium(kt)(kt)1,0603151,0013131,0522771,0392481,1752511,1702701

52、3%9%0%7%5,0531,1965,2701,262base metalscopperleadzincgoldsilveruraniummolybdenum(kt)(kt)(kt)(koz)(moz)(kt)(t)220.255.723.40595280.367.028.344.010.900.91766281.451.629.744.79.720.90521312.563.730.740.611.541.08464287.964.829.547.711.241.07987273.952.225.9454-12%-18%-16%-20%-21%-4

53、%-2%-5%-19%-12%-32%-18%-3%-54%1,17724610717743.53.923,4161,34125913421744.94.213,949carbon steeliron ore - pilbarairon ore - pilbara (100%)iron ore - global (100%)iron ore sales pilbara (100%)iron ore sales - global (100%)met coal productionmet coal - salesmanganese ore (100%)manganese alloy(mt)(mt)

54、(mt)(mt)(mt)(mt)(mt)(mt)(kt)36.643.149.043.62.019438.244.950.743.71.819535.241.446.940.92.013838.044.750.544.72.077546.152.0512536.943.449.243.62.15130-3%-3%-3%-2%-3%10%5%4%73%-6%-6%-5%-6%-6%22%9%10%4%15718520918520935358.2514179

55、21123721123737378.6534stainless steelnickel(kt)35.138.441.742.741.541.5-3%0%166160energy coalenergy coal(mt)18.516.917.218.518.819.66%5%7777diamond & specialtydiamonds(kcts)457481433413552313-24%-43%1,8752,187petroleumus shale gasconventionaltotal petroleum(mboe)(mboe)(mboe)14.037.451.422.835.15

56、8.024.232.356.524.631.856.424.333.357.624.436.961.2-1%16%9%0%11%6%99142241140151291source: company reports, deutsche bankpage 4deutsche bank ag/sydney17 october 2012m&m - diversified resourcesbhp billiton ltddivisional highlightsiron ore waio full year guidance maintainedfigure 2:iron ore produc

57、tion by asset (kt annualised)200,000180,000samarcomining area cjimblebargoldsworthy jvyandi jvmt newman jva small qoq decline due to aplanned shutdown associated160,000withtheinnerharbour140,000120,000100,00080,00060,00040,00020,0000expansion project1q111q121q13source: company reportsfigure 3: wa ir

58、on ore production shipments (kt annualised)180,000160,000140,000120,000100,00080,00060,00040,00020,0000attributable wa productionattributable wa shipments (sales)1q11source: company datadeutsche bank ag/sydney1q121q13page 517 october 2012m&m - diversified resourcesbhp billiton ltdpetroleum - a r

59、ecord quarter driven by both the gom and onshorefigure 4: petroleum flat over the quarter, shale gas c.40% of productionthe atlantis and mad dogfacilities in the gulf of mexiconatural gas liquidnatural gascrude oil & condensaterecommencedproduction,250220190160130100704010and the onshore us liqu

60、idsproduction increased to arecord 3.9 mboe over thequarter-201q111q121q13source: company datamet coal - a much better than expected recoveryfigure 5: coking coal attributable production (kt) on an annualised basisbma has benefitted from areduction in industrial strike45000illawarrabhp mitsui coalbmaaction but the ramp-up wasmuch stronger than we had4000035000300002500020000150001000050000an