房地产市场报告 高力国际

1、内部资料经济基本面加速 物业租金维稳本地投资者主导中国投资市场2010年3月29日 - 北京 - 在中国经济基本面持续走强的背景下，中国房地产市场各子市场的租金保持稳定，而在部分城市则出现了平稳增长的现象。投资者对中国房地产市场兴趣依旧。在过去的一年中，本地投资者在投资交易中占据主导地位，而海外投资者则尚未在中国参与核心资产的收购。高力国际北亚洲区董事总经理柳维伦先生在今天的新闻发布会上指出，中国房地产市场正受益于经济增长的强劲势头表现出良好的发展态势。他表示：“不断增加的需求使新增写字楼项目净吸纳率上升。强大的国内消费支撑着零售业销售的增长，转而又带动了对于高端零售业物业的需求。尽管政府为缓

2、和过热的房地产市场出台的调控措施将带来一些调整，但豪宅物业仍是最吸引投资者的选择。”关于投资市场方面，柳维纶先生认为：“虽然存在收益率压缩和规范投资、抑制投机的政府政策，中国的投资环境仍然有着广阔的前景。本地发展商和投资者因为有着足够的现金流、乐观的经济展望、和对货币政策变动的较低风险预计，将继续成为海外同行收购物业资产时的强有力竞争对手。”一般而言，投资者的兴趣表现在一线城市的写字楼、零售业物业和住宅市场，以及二线城市的零售业物业和住宅市场。而现在，它们已经重返能带来更大回报率的二三线城市。本次新闻发布会还重点分析了中国三个主要城市北京、上海、和广州的房地产市场走势。北京2010年1季度的甲

3、级写字楼新增供应有限，仅为32,000平方米。整体空置率降至16.27%，较2009年4季度略低。随着需求的小幅提升，写字楼租金略涨1.06%，但与去年同期相比仍下降了7.2%。未来，甲级写字楼的需求量将继续增长，到2010年底，净吸纳量将超过28万平方米。巨大新增供应量的涌入将部分抵消租金上涨的势头，造成租金反复浮动。预计随着2010年下半年需求量的恢复，租金将在2010年底企稳并在2011年后加速上涨。虽然整体零售业物业租赁市场表现平淡，但众多外资和外地零售商已经开始为其在北京的扩张积极布局。整体空置率环比下降0.24个百分点，在2010年1季度末达到16.04%。与此同时，受本季度新入市

4、项目的影响，租金下降至人民币690.63元每月每平米，环比下降0.5%。由于一些零售物业业主缺乏运营经验，针对这些经营状况不佳的购物中心，市场初现潜在投资机会。北京住宅市场的强劲需求已持续十余年未减，但2010年1季度的供应量比较有限。本季仅有2个豪宅项目的465套房屋完工入市。随着经济基本面的加速和入住需求的增长，预计住宅租赁市场发展前景良好。豪宅租金已回升1.82%至人民币131.68元每月每平米，售价环比增长11.4%至38.338元每平米。但因为借贷控制收紧及其它一些政策原因，售价涨幅环比回落3.83%。预计住宅市场将继续调整，但豪宅的平均售价保持平稳。考虑到经济环境日渐转好，租赁市场

5、可望全面恢复。北京土地交易活跃，总交易额环比增长44%，同比增长170%。国资委明令78家央企退出楼市之后，其余的本地企业将继续在土地交易市场占主导地位，推动地价继续上升。2010年1季度，北京投资市场保持活跃，从佳程广场的成交即可见一斑。预计未来总投资额将继续上升，本地企业将在更大程度上主导投资市场。零售物业将继续吸引海外与本地的大批投资者。但是对于大多数现有业主和潜在买家而言，如何更加专业地运营购物中心仍是一大挑战。上海在2010年1季度，甲级写字楼的新增供应仅为5,000平方米。在政府关于2020年使上海成为国际金融中心的利好愿景刺激下，需求量有所增加，空置率从2009年底的最高点下降至

6、13.7%，写字楼租金环比小幅上涨1.7%。在浦东地区，租赁成交尤为活跃。而在浦西的cbd，空置率已经下降为10%。预计，在未来的1年内，写字楼租金同比降幅将逐渐缩小。在2009年末达到谷底之后，预计售价将会稳步回升。零售物业租赁方面，租金已从2009年下半年开始回升。在上海世博会即将开幕的利好推动下，市场需求明显上涨，cbd区域的租金也上涨明显，2010年第一季度已经增长了5%。高端住宅租赁市场也受益于世博会的召开，市场对于需求量的预期激增，供应量上涨了10%，但由于2010年1季度新增外籍雇员的租赁需求非常强劲，因此空置率未现下降而是依然维持在2009年末的24.4%水平。在销售方面，普通

7、住宅市场将有调整，售价预计下降10%左右。预计，在资金充裕及人民币升值的预期下，高端住宅市场售价将保持平稳。在投资市场，本地投资者表现活跃。写字楼物业成为金融机构投资的首选。外资已经重新表现出意向并开始采取行动，但将面临本地投资者的有力竞争。广州由于2008和2009年新增供应仅有25万平方米，广州甲级写字楼的空置率下降至16.3%。虽然2011年的写字楼新增面积预期为134万平方米左右，但政府的40亿人民币计划将带动更多的跨国企业总部进驻，将空置率保持在一个合理的水平。而事实上，写字楼租金从2009年下半年已开始缓慢回升。在2010年第一季度，写字楼租金已上升至人民币133元每平米。但是租金

8、的上涨并未赶上售价，这也将导致收益率的进一步压缩。因为巨大的供应量即将涌入，广州的零售业物业市场将出现竞争激烈的局面，同时也将有更多的一线国际高端品牌进驻。消费品零售销量的增长成为商铺租金的支柱。但随着天河区一些新购物中心的完工，这一区域的商铺档次会逐渐提高，同时将广州不同区域的零售业档次差距进一步拉大。住宅销售市场保持稳定，尤其是高端住宅部分，投资者依然喜好其带来的更高回报。在普通住宅市场，价格将保持坚挺，但是对下半年交易量降低的预计会给价格造成下降的压力。 (完)关于高力国际高力国际是一家国际知名的房地产服务机构，致力为全球物业用家、业主及投资者提供全方位的房地产服务。高力国际在全球61个

9、国家共设有294家分公司，拥有12,700位雇员，全球管理物业总面积超过1.02亿平方米，年度营业收入16亿美元。所提供的服务包括物业代理、物业管理、酒店投资买卖及顾问、企业咨询服务、房地产估值、咨询及评估服务、项目管理、银行按揭服务及市场研究等。高力国际是一家由独立地产服务机构组成的国际联盟机构。在大中华地区，高力国际拥有9间分公司、2400位专业人才，物业管理面积超过2,000万平方米，并在40个城市拥有驻场办事处。高力国际为跨国及本地客户提供全方位的地产服务，包括：销售及租赁、业主服务、物业驻户服务、租户代表、投资服务及特别项目、顾问、估值、研究与咨询、企业咨询、项目策划与推广，及物业与

10、资产管理等。有关高力国际在中国的业务领域，请浏览：for more information, please contactcathy shiassistant manager, marketing & communicationstel: +86 10 8518 1633 (ext 808)cathy.shiaccelerating economic fundamentals stabilise property rentals local investors take the lead in chinas investment market29 march 2010, beijing as

11、the economic fundamentals in china continue to strengthen, rentals across all property sectors will stabilise, with some cities experiencing a steady growth. meanwhile, investors interest in the real estate market in china will sustain. local investors have taken up a major share in the sales transa

12、ctions in the past year. foreign investors have yet to catch up in acquiring core assets in the country. speaking at a press conference today, alan liu, managing director, north asia of colliers international, pointed out that the real estate markets are benefiting from the economic growth momentum

13、in china. “improved occupational demand has brought about growing net absorption of new office space. strong local consumption sustains the growth in retail sales and in turn, the demand for prime retail space. luxury residential properties remain a popular choice of investment despite impending con

14、solidation due to the governments measures to cool down the overheated market.”in view of the investment sector, mr. liu said, “china offers a very promising investment climate despite yield compression and the governments policies to curb speculation. with sufficient liquidity, optimistic economic

15、outlook and smaller perceived risk of dramatic changes on monetary policy, local developers and/or investors continue to compete with their overseas counterparts to acquire property assets.” investors generally demonstrate strong interests in office, retail and residential properties in first-tier c

16、ities, and retail and residential in second-tier cities. they have now returning to second and third tier cities, which offer a higher return.- more - continued -the press conference also covered the real estate market of the three major markets for occupier and investors in china, namely beijing, s

17、hanghai and guangzhou.beijingthe new supply of grade a office space in 1q 2010 was relatively limited, with only 32,000 sq m completed during the first quarter. overall vacancy rate declined to 16.27% - a mild decrease from 4q 2009. with a small increase in demand, office rents edged up by 1.06%, bu

18、t down 7.2% year-on-year (yoy). looking ahead, the demand for grade a office should continue to grow, with the total net absorption (or take-up) exceeding 280,000 sq m by end-2010. the surge of new supply should offset the rental growth momentum, bringing about a “w-shape” rental movement. with an e

19、xpected recovery in demand in 2h 2010, rents should become stabilised by end-2010 and start to grow again in 2011 and beyond.the overall retail market was sluggish although many overseas and domestic retailers started and resumed their expansionary activities in beijing. overall vacancy rate decreas

20、ed by 0.24 percentage points quarter-on-quarter (qoq), to 16.04% by end-1q 2010. meanwhile, rentals weighed down to rmb690.63 per sq m per month, a decrease of 0.5% qoq, given a slate of new completions being injected into the market during the quarter. due to a lack of retail operation experience a

21、mong some retail property owners, opportunities for investment into underperforming shopping centres loom in the market. the demand for residential properties in beijing was strong, as it has been over the last decade, but new supply remained limited in 1q 2010. there were only two new luxury develo

22、pments with a total of 465 units completed in this quarter. with accelerating economic fundamentals and growing occupational demand, the residential leasing market is expected to grow. luxury residential rentals registered a rebound of 1.82% to rmb131.68 per sq m per - more - continued -month, while

23、 capital values grew by 11.4% qoq to rmb 38.338 per sq m. but the pace of capital value growth slowed by 3.83% qoq, which was the result of tightening lending controls and other restrictive policy issues. looking down to road, the residential market should continue to consolidate, but the average ca

24、pital values of luxury residential properties should remain firm. considering the improved economic climate, a full recovery in the leasing sector is expected.beijings land sales market was very active, with total transaction volume rising by 44% qoq or 170% yoy. while the state-owned assets supervi

25、sion and administration commission (sasac) has urged 78 state-owned enterprises to withdraw from the property market, the remaining local companies continued to dominate the activity in the land sales market, driving prices upward. the investment market in beijing remained active in 1q 2010, evidenc

26、ed by the transaction of gateway plaza. while overall investment volume is expected to trend up, local enterprises, to a greater extent, should continue to take the lead in the investment sales market. retail assets continue to be appealing to a wide range of investors, both overseas and domestic. h

27、owever, the difficulty in running a centre to a more professional and “stylish” manner remains a challenge to most existing landlords and potential buyers. shanghaiin 1q 2010, the supply of new grade a office space was limited to 5,000 sq m. coupled with the governments vision to transform shanghai

28、as an international financial centre by 2020, the demand began to pick up, and the vacancy rate declined from its peak at the end of 2009 to 13.7%. office rentals have edged up 1.7% qoq. leasing activities have been particularly active in pudong. in puxi cbd, the vacancy rate has been reduced to 10%

29、. over the next 12 months, the decline in office rentals will taper off. after hitting the bottom at the end of 2009, a steady increase in sales prices is anticipated.- more - continued -in the retail leasing sector, the rentals started to pick up in the second half of 2009. driven by potential stro

30、ng demand arising from the shanghai world expo, rentals in cbd has increased more rapidly with a 5% increase in 1q 2010.anticipating a surge in demand from the world expo, the supply of high-end residential units has gone up by 10%. the vacancy rate, however, has been kept at the same level of 24.4%

31、 at 1q 2010 as in the year-end of 2009 owing in large part to stronger demand from new expatriate recruitment. on the sales front, consolidation in the mass market is expected to continue with an expected price drop of 10%. the high-end luxury residential market will remain stable, however, because

32、of sufficient financing and an anticipated appreciation of rmb. local investors have been very active in the investment sales market. office properties are the top choice among financial institutions. foreign investors show signs of renewed interest in the market and have become more active in takin

33、g up positions; however, they will face strong competition from local investors.guangzhoudue to the limited supply of 250,000 sq m in 2008 and 2009, the vacancy rate of grade a office in guangzhou has declined to 16.3%. though 1,340,000 sq m of new office space is anticipated in 2011, the government

34、s 4-billion rmb programme to attract more multinational corporate headquarters should help to keep the vacancy rate at a reasonable level. in fact, office rentals began to edge up from the second half of 2009. in 1q 2010, office rental increased to rmb133 per sq m. however, as rental increases have

35、yet to catch up with sales prices, yields are expected to compress further. guangzhous retail industry is a very competitive landscape as there is a huge amount of supply coming on stream. there have been many more first-tier international and high-end brands entering the market. the increasing volu

36、me of retail sales of consumer goods will serve to sustain retail property rentals. gradually, however, with the completion of several new retail developments in tianhe - more - continued -district which will improve the quality of retail offerings in this area, there will be a widening rental gap amongst the various districts in guangzhou.the residenti