信息不对称AsymmetricInation(卫生经济学).ppt

1、信息不对称 Asymmetric Information,信息问题 Information Problems 患者缺乏信息，也没有能力识别质量 Patientslack of information and inability to discern quality 保险方缺乏参保者的健康状况信息 Insurerslack of information about individuals health background 逆向选择 Adverse selection 假设有10个低风险的人和10个高风险的人，高风险的人预期的医疗保健费是1000美元，低风险的人预期的医疗保健费是100美元。医疗

2、保险费的确定基于平均的预期医疗保健费，也就是550美元Suppose there are 10 low risk people and 10 high risk people, the high risk peoples expected health care expenditure will be $1000, the low risks will be $100. The health insurance premium is based on average expected expenditure, which is $550.,逆向选择 Adverse Selection,保险公司

3、无法区分风险高和风险低的人。 保险费只反映了两类人的平均风险。因此高风险的人将购买保险，因为此时的保险费低于完全依照他们的风险确定的保险费。而低风险的人可能不会购买保险，因为此时的保险费高于完全依照他们的风险确定的保险费。 The insurance company is unable to distinguish between high and low risks. The insurance premium only reflects the average risk of the two groups. Then, the high risk group will purchase i

4、nsurance since a premium based on the average risk is lower than a premium based solely on their own risk. The low risk individuals may not purchase insurance since a premium based on the average would be greater than their own risk-based premium.,逆向选择 Adverse Selection,逆向选择将会导致某些人购买医疗保险Adverse sele

5、ction would result in a biased sample of those that purchase health insurance 更多的高风险个人将购买保险 Predominantly, more high risk individuals would purchase insurance “柠檬”法则 The Lemons Principle 高风险的人驱逐低风险的人直至市场不存在 The bad drives out the good until no market is left,柠檬法则 The Lemons Principle,Akerlof (1970)

6、用信息不对称的观点分析二手车市场 Akerlof (1970) used the idea of asymmetric information to analyze the used car market 二手车的质量千差万别 Used cars available for sale vary in quality 对称不信息 Asymmetric information 卖者比买者更了解车子的质量 The sellers know better the true quality of their cars than the buyers 有9辆车供出售 There are 9 cars fo

7、r sale 质量(Q)= 0, , , , 1, 1 , 1 , 1 , 2 卖者了解每辆车的质量 Seller(owner) knows each cars quality 买者只知道质量的分布 Buyer only knows the distribution of quality,柠檬法则 The Lemons Principle,卖者的保留价值是$1000 xQ Seller has a reserve value=$1000 xQ 买者的保留价值是$1,500 xQ Buyer has a reserve value=$1,500 xQ 雇佣一个拍卖人报价。拍卖人找到一个需求量等于

8、供给量的价格就成交 An auctioneer is hired to call out prices. Sales take place when the auctioneer finds a price that makes quantity demanded equal quantity supplied 我们现在进行这个拍卖游戏 We do the sales game together in class,柠檬法则 The Lemons Principle,如果信息对称，买者和卖者都不清楚具体的质量，他们只知道车子的平均质量，此时二手车市场能否存在？市场价格是多少？ If inform

9、ation had been symmetric, both owners and buyers were uncertain of the quality, they only know the average quality of cars, then is there a market for the used cars? What would be the market price?,柠檬法则的应用：医疗保险Application of The Lemons Principle: Health Insurance,信息不对称 Information asymmetry 潜在的参保者比医

10、疗保险公司更了解自己将来可能的医疗保健支出 The potential insured person knows more about her (his) expected health expenditures in the coming period than does the insurance company. 具体地讲 More specifically 参保者知道自己将来的医疗费用（类似于二手车的车主） Insured knows her (his) future expenditure exactly (similar to the owner of the cars) 保险公司

11、只了解所有参保者的医疗费用的分布 （类似于买车的人） Insurance company knows only the distribution of expenditures for all insured persons(similar to the buyer of the cars),柠檬法则的应用：医疗保险Application of The Lemons Principle: Health Insurance,医疗保险市场有5个人 There are 5 persons in health insurance market 预期的医疗费用0, , , , 1 Expected ex

12、penditure=0, , , , 1 平均医疗费用 Average expenditure= 我们再做一个游戏看医疗保险市场是否存在 We do the game again in class to check if there is health insurance market 如果信息对称，参保者和保险公司都只知道风险的分布，那将会怎样？ If information had been symmetric, both insured and insurance company only know the distribution of expenditure, then?,代理关系委

13、托代理问题Agency RelationshipThe Principal Agent Problem,代理关系 Agency relationship 委托方委托另一方，也就是代理方作出决定 A principal delegates decision-making authority to another party, the agent 信息不对称和代理问题是相关的现象 Asymmetric information and agency are closely related phenomena 委托代理问题 The Principal Agent Problem 怎样确定医生作出了最符

14、合患者利益的决策 How to determine the physician is acting in the patients best interests,供给诱导需求 Supplier-Induced Demand,供给诱导需求问题 The Supplier-Induced Demand problem 医生具有影响需求的利益驱动 The physician has a financial interest to influence the demand. 医生可以通过提供不准确的信息“创造”需求 The physician can “create” the demand by pro

15、viding the biased information to the patient 供给诱导需求问题源于信息不对称 The SID problem results from asymmetric information 患者和保险方都缺乏作出关于医疗方面的决策的必要信息 Both patients and insurers lack the necessary information to make many medical-related decision 患者依赖于医生的建议和他们所提供的服务 The patient depends upon the physician for bo

16、th advice and service,供给诱导需求 Supplier-Induced Demand,传统的经济学模型 The traditional economic model 传统的经济学模型假设医生是患者完美的代理人，可以推出其他条件不变，供给的增加将降低医生的收费，从而降低医生的收入。 The traditional economic model, which assumes the physician is a perfect agent for the patient, would predict that an increase in supply, other thing

17、s being equal, would result in a decline in physicians fees, and consequently physician incomes. 现实的观察正好相反 The observation in reality is opposite 需要更合理的理论解释医生的行为 Need alternative theory to study physician behavior,供给诱导需求 Supplier-Induced Demand,传统的经济学模型 The traditional economic model 供给量增加 价格下降,供给诱导

18、需求 Supplier-Induced Demand,供给诱导需求的价格刚性模型 The price rigidity model of SID 为什么竞争的市场会出现诱导需求？一种解释是假设医疗价格倾向于刚性 One approach that can explain demand inducement within the context of a competitive market model is to argue that prices tend to be rigid 随着供给增加，为了保持固定的价格，医生具有增加需求的激励 As supply increases, in ord

19、er to fix the price, the physician has incentive to induce demand 但是这个理论只能解释为何价格没有下降，但不能解释为何价格上升 But this model can only explain why price doesnt go down and cant explain why price goes up,供给诱导需求 Supplier-Induced Demand,SID的价格刚性模型 The price rigidity model of SID 供给量增加 价格不变,供给诱导需求 Supplier-Induced De

20、mand,SID的目标收入模型 The target income model of SID 尽管医生的供给快速增加，医疗价格仍然上升 The price of health care increases despite rapid increase in physician supply 目标收入模型用以解释医生收费的快速上升 The target income model is used to explain the rapid increase in physician fees. 在目标收入假设下，医生供给的增加导致收费的上升以保证目标收入，或者医生将诱导患者的需求以保证目标收入 Un

21、der the target income hypothesis, increase in supply of physicians lead to higher fees in order for earning to be maintained, or physician will induce demand to maintain the target income,供给诱导需求 Supplier-Induced Demand,SID的目标收入模型 The target income model of SID 供给量增加 价格上升,供给诱导需求 Supplier-Induced Dema

22、nd,SID的目标收入模型 The target income model of SID 目标收入假设的主要证据是医生/人口比率和医生收费呈正相关 The major evidence for target income hypothesis is that physician/population ratios are positively related to physician fees 医生诱导需求的范围和价格水平取决于医生期望的收入目标 The extent of the demand the physician can create and the price that will

23、be established are based upon what target income the physician desires 目标收入水平取决于当地的收入水平，尤其是其他医生和专业人士的收入水平 The target income is determined by the local income distribution, particularly with respect to the income of other physicians and professionals,供给诱导需求 Supplier-Induced Demand,SID的利润最大化模型,供给诱导需求

24、Supplier-Induced Demand,Roemer & Shain 提出，一个地区增加床位的供给创造对床位的需求。为什么？,(1) 短缺的存在 如果制定的医疗价格低于均衡水平，即在P0处，S0表明床位供给，医院利用为Q0 。在P0价格上，就会出现Q3到Q0的过度需求。如果床位供给从S0增加到S1，从S1增加到S2，再至S3，医院利用就会从Q0增加到Q3。,供给诱导需求 Supplier-Induced Demand,解释一,(2) 预计需求扩大 图中S0 & D0 表示起始供求曲线，Q0为医院服务利用。如果床位供给增加到S1，医院服务利用增加到Q1，这种情况表明供给创造新的需求D1，

25、相反，床位供给是建立在对需求增长的预测基础上。,供给诱导需求 Supplier-Induced Demand,患者的往返成本发生了变化。如果增加的床位建在靠近预期患者的新型较小医院，到医院的往返成本将降低，这时，床位供给的增加并不创造新的需求，而是降低非货币成本(如路途的时间成本），使患者医疗总价格下降，从而使患者沿着其需求曲线向下移动。如图：,解释二,供给诱导需求 Supplier-Induced Demand,医生通过收治患者入院来提高效益。,解释三,供给诱导需求 Supplier-Induced Demand,还有其他解释吗？,供给诱导需求 Supplier-Induced Demand,一项研究表明，平均每人受诊数和一定人口拥有的医