【亚太经合组织APEC】2025亚太地区区域趋势洞察报告经济状况分析

APEC

Asia-Pacific

EconomicCooperation

APECRegionalTrendsAnalysisMarch2025·PolicySupportUnit

GDPGrowthInflationand

andOutlookMonetaryPolicy

APECRegionalTrendsAnalysis

GovernmentBudget

KEYPOINTS

APEC'sgrowthprospectsare

dampenedbygeopoliticalissues

andgeoeconomic

fragmentation,fueledbytherise

ofmeasuresaffectingtradeand

investment.

TourismisdrivingthegrowthincommercialservicestradeinAPEC,boostingeconomic tiesandculturalexchange.

Asglobalrisksrise,

goldpriceshithistorichighs,

withinvestorsseekingsafety

amidrisinguncertainty.

Thewideningfiscalgap,

worsenedbydemographic

shiftsthatincreasefiscal

burden,couldthreaten

stabilityandgrowth.

2

APECisnavigatinganeramarkedbyanunprecedentedescalationofglobalchallenges.

SustainabilityrisksGeopoliticaltensionsPolicyuncertainty

GlobalMeanTemperatureChange

(℃deviationfrom1951-1980means)

GeopoliticalRisk(Index,1985-2019=100)

GlobalEconomicPolicyUncertainty

(Index,1997-2015=100)

Source:NationalAeronauticsandSpaceAdministrationGoddardInstituteforSpaceStudies;EconomicPolicyUncertainty;APECPSUstaffcalculations3

DOWNSIDE

RISKS

MultipleGlobalChallenges

Policy

Uncertainties

S

SoaringDebt

GDP

3.6

3.3

2023Actual

GrowthandOutlook:Global,APECandROW(%,y-0-y)

■Globaleconomy■APECregion■Restoftheworld

3.5

3.33.0

3.53.1

3.3

3.22.9

2.7

3.33.33.32.8

2024

Estimate

2027-2029

Medium-termprojections

20252026Short-termProjections

UPSIDE

OPPORTUNITIES

Travel

Resurgence

InnovativeTechnologies

Growth-enhancing

Reforms

APECissetforsteadygrowthintheshortterm,butprojectedtotrailtheglobaleconomy

inthemediumtermamidrisingrisksanduncertainties,particularlyontradepolicy.

Source:InternationalMonetaryFund(MF)WorldEconomicOutlookWEO)Januay2025andotober2024;Economysources;APECPSUstafcaloulations

MonetaryPolicyRate(%)

■MPR

asof21October2024■MPRasof9February2025

Australia

Canada

Chile

China

Hongkong,China

ndonesia

Japan

korea

Malaysia

Mexico

NewZealand

PapuaNewGuinea

Peru

ThePhilippines

Russia

ChineseTaipei

Thailand

UnitedStates

VietNam

24

21

18

15

12

9

6

3

0

Note:ThemonetarypolicyframeworkinBruneiDarussalamisbasedonacurrencyboardsystem,withtheBruneidollar

anchoredtotheSingaporedollaratpar.ForSingapore,monetarypolicyisconductedthroughthetrade-weightedexchange

rate,whichisallowedtofluctuatewithinapolicyband.

APECAverageInflation(%,y-o-y)

Dec-22

Mar-23

Jun-23

Sep-23

Dec-23

Mar-24

Jun-24

Sep-24

Dec-24

8.0

6.1

6.0

4.5

4.0

2.8

2.2

2.0

0.0

2.4

3.4

2.7

3.3

3.1

ForeignExchangeRate

2.5%depreciation

istheaveragedecreaseamongAPECcurrencies

againsttheUSDfrom9February2024to9February2025

14APECcurrencies

depreciatedagainst

6APECcurrencies

appreciatedagainst

⑤⑤⑤⑤⑤⑤

theUSDrangingfrom

-16.9%to-0.5%

theUSDrangingfrom

0.4%to7.4%

⑤⑤⑤⑤⑤S

⑤⑤⑤⑤⑤⑤⑤

Whileinflationtrendslower,cautiousmonetarypolicyisneeded

tomaintainexchangerateandmacroeconomicstabilityamidrisks.

Source:Economysources;GoogleFinance;APECPSUstaffcalculations5

CrudeOilPrice(USD/barrel)

Crudeoil,average

FoodPrices(2014-2016=100)

—FAOFoodPriceIndex……FAODairyPriceIndex

··FAOCerealPriceIndex

……FAOMeatPriceIndex

……FAOVegetableOilPriceIndex

0ilpricesaretrendingupward,fueledbymountingconcernsoverpolicyuncertainties,whilefoodpriceshavegenerallymoderatedduetoweakerdemandforsomeproducts.

Source:WordBankCommodiyMarkets;FoodandAgricutureOrganization(FAO)oftheUnitedNations(UN);APECPSUstafcalculations6

APECGrowthinValueof

Merchandisetradereboundedinthefirstthreequartersof2024,boostedbylowerinflationandinterestrates,whichspurredconsumptionandinvestment.Tradeprospectsmaydeclinewithpotentiallyslowerglobaldemandandrestrictivetradepolicies.

Source:WorldTradeOrganization(WTO)TimeSeries;APECPSUstaffcalculations7

APECGrowthinValueofTradeinCommercialServices(%,y-o-y)

■Q1-Q32022■Q1-Q32023■Q1-Q32024

Robustdouble-digitgrowthintravelinAPEChaspropelledcommercialservicesexpansion,

particularlytourism,strengtheningeconomictiesandculturalexchange.

Source:WTOTimeSeries;APECPSUstaffcalculations8

APECElderlyPopulation:Ages65andAbove(per100population)

Ageingpopulationsstraineconomiesthroughrisinghealthcarecosts,

laborshortages,andincreasedfiscalburdens.

Source:WorldBank,WorldDevelopmentIndicators;EconomySources;APECPSUstaffcalculations9

1000

800

600

400

200

APECTradeMeasuresinForce(accumulatednumber)

1043

960

910

878

839

736

350

280

366

290

395

306

458

327

528

350

577

381

0

31-Dec-1931-Dec-2031-Dec-2131-Dec-2231-Dec-2331-Dec-24

—Trade-facilitatingmeasures—Trade-restrictiveandothermeasures一Traderemedies

Trade-restrictivemeasuresraisecostsandlimitmarketaccess,potentiallyweakeningexternaldemandandtradeactivity.

Additionally,thegrowingnumberoftraderemediessuggestsanincreaseinunfairtradepractices.

Source:WTOTradeMonitoringDatabase;APECPSUstaffcalculations10

!

GoldPrice(USD/troyounce)

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

1/1/80

1/1/83

1/1/86

1/1/89

1/1/92

1/1/95

1/1/98

1/1/01

1/1/04

1/1/07

1/1/10

1/1/13

1/1/16

1/1/19

0

Intensifyingglobalriskshavepushedgoldpricestorecordhighs,ignitedbydemand

forsafe-havenassetsasinvestorshedgeagainstgrowinguncertainties.

Source:Bloomberg,Datastream,ICEBenchmarkAdministration,WorldGoldCouncil;APECPSUstaffcalculations

1/1/25

1/1/22

11

SemiconductorIndustryBillings(USDbillion)

■Asia-Pacific■Americas■RestoftheWorld

60

Semiconductorsarethelifebloodofthedigitaleconomy,highlightingtheneedforopentradeandrobustsupplychainsto

sustainglobaltechnologicalprogress.However,concernsremainonwhetherthisupsurgecouldbesustainedwelinto2025.

Source:WorldSemiconductorTradeStatistics;APECPSUstaffcalculations12

APECGovernmentRevenueandExpenditure(%ofGDP)

40.0

37.5------

APECGovernmentExpenditure

(%ofGDP)

35.0----------------------

32.5

30.0

27.5APEC

25.0

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

Actual

Estimates

GovernmentRevenue(%ofGDP)

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

Projections

Rampingupfiscalconsolidationandbuildingbuffersforfutureshocksare

essentialforAPECtonarrowthefiscalgapandbringdowndebttosustainablelevels.

Source:IMFWEOOctober2024;Economysources;APECPSUstaffcalculations13

PolicyRecommendations:Chartingamoreresilientpathforward

SOUNDMONETARYANDFISCALPOLICIES

·Maintainaflexiblemonetarypolicytomanageinflationandsupportgrowth.

·Ensurefiscalconsolidationandtargetspendingtoimprovelivelihoods.

·Enhanceinvestmentsinkeyeconomicsectors.

GROWTH-ENHANCINGREFORMS

·Boostproductivityandpromoteinnovation.

·Investinhumancapitalthrougheducationandhealthcare.

·Improveworkforceparticipationandskills.

RESILIENTMULTILATERALCOOPERATION

·StrengthenAPEC'sroleinregional

economicintegration.

·Promotetradeandsustainablegrowth.

·Fosterpolicydialogueoncritical

reformstoincreaseregional

competitivenessandbuildresilience.

14

Asia-PacificEconomicCooperation(APEC)wasestablishedin1989.The21membereconomiesareAustralia;BruneiDarussalam;Canada;Chile;China;HongKong,China;Indonesia;Japan;Korea;Malaysia;Mexico;NewZealand;PapuaNewGuinea;Peru;thePhilippines;Russia;Singapore;ChineseTaipei;Thailand;theUnitedStates;andVietNam.

APECPolicySupportUnit(PSU)wassetupin2008asthepolicyresearchandanalysisarmforAPEC.ItsupportsAPECmembersandforainimprovingthequalityoftheirdeliberationsanddecisionsandpromotingpoliciesthatsupporttheachievementofAPEC'sgoalsbyprovidingobjectiveandhighqualityresear