【德勤】2025科技、传媒和电信行业预测

Deloitte.InsghtsDeloitte.Insghts2.AngleCityFC,“WillowBayandB4.GSA,“5G-GSAMarketSnapshotMarch-2024,”March4,2024.5.TeckNexus,“CurrentStateofOpenRAN–Countries&Operatorsdeploying&trialingOpenRAN,”Deloitte.InsghtsDeloitte.InsghtsDeloitte.Deloitte.Insghts252630此3539404649546064TWhin2030—increasingfrom25,585TWhbackin2022.5.Ibid.tobebroken,”April28,2024;Moreover,duetostrongdemandfromctrendsH22023,”March6,2024.charts,”LatitudeMedia,May31,2024.report,andfurthervalidatedfromthird-partysources.Deloitte,April2024.WallStreetJournal,April24,2024.15.NoamBrousard,“ExaminingtheimpactofchichallengeofpoweringAIchips,”Ro1.5%ofworld’spowerconsumptionby2029,”HPCwire,July8,2024.furthercorroboratedwithpubliclyavailablethird-partysourcesincluding:BethKindig,“AIpowerofstoragecapacitycontinuestogrowlongterm,”IDCCorporate,May2023.climatecost.”21.AlexdeVries,“Thegrowingenergyfootprintofarti¥cialintelligence,”Joule7,no.10(2023):pp.2024.energyfootprintofarti¥cialintelligence,”pp.2191–2194.25.DarrenSweeney,“Utilityexecspreparefor‘tripling’ofelectricitydemandby2050,”S&PGlobal,April26.RobertWalton,“USelectricityloadgrowthforecastjumps81%ledbyda28.Çam,Hungerford,Schoch,Miranda,anddeLeón,“Electricity2024.”29.Baraniuk,“Electricitygrids30.Yu,“AI’sloomingclimatecost.”32.Baraniuk,“Electrici33.PaulO’Donoghue,“Builditandth34.HostingJournalist,“CityofAmsterdamputshalttonewdatacenterconstruction,”Dec.21,2023.39.Ibid.concerns,”UtilityDive,Oct.23,2023.41.KarenHao,“AIistakingwaterfromthedesert,”TheAtlantic,March1,2024.47.DavidEisenband,“100+kWperrackindatacenters:TheevolutionandrevolutionofpowerdensitRamboll,March13,2024;Direct-to-chipcooling(alsoknownascoldplateliquidcooApril2024.the¥rstquarterof2023andthethirdquarterof2024.risky,”InstituteforEnergyEconomicsa54.Deloitte'sanalysisofdataandinformationgatheredfrommultiplereportsfromS&PGlobal58.DuncanStewart,NobuoOkubo,Patrick59.WylieWong,“Nvidialaunchednext-generainour2025TMTPredictionschapteron“Updates”;Additionally,see:SabuzimaNayak,RiponPatg61.Yu,“AI’sloomingclimatecost.”62.LukeCavanagh,“GPUsvs.CPUsinthecont65.Baraniuk,“ElectricDeloitte.InsghtsDeloitte.Deloitte.Insghts17Deloitte.Deloitte.Insghts182022 Deloitte.Insghts29313236373840422.Ibid.“GenerativeAIisalltherage6.WorldEconomicForum,“Glob7.DeloitteAIInstitute,“WomeninAI,”accessedNovemb“Balancingact.”Corduneanu,Winters,Michalski,HorRaman,andSteinhart,“Balancingact.”Deloitte,“GenerativeAI.”healthappdataiscoveredbyHIPAA,”T21.InaFried,“GenerativeAI’sprivacyproblem,”Axios,March14,2024;FederalTradeCommission,“AIApril10,2024.26.MoniqueWoodard,“Unlockingthetrillion-dollarfemaleeconomy,”TechCrunch,May21,2023.28.Ibid.withgenAIhave“high”or“veryhigh”trustthatgenAIproviderswillkeeptheirdatasecure,andanother40%reportmoderatetrust,while47%oftechmenreport“high”or“veryhigh”trustand31.Ibid.33.WorldEconomicForum,“Globalgendergapreport2023.”34.Deloitte,“GenerativeAI.”36.CharlotteLytton,“AIhiringtoolsmaybe¥lteringouttMarch2,2020.know.Butitdoesn’thaveto.”40.WorldEconomicForum,“Globalgendergapreport2023.”41.SmithandRustagi,44.Ibid.industries,”April3,2023.46.WomeninAI,“WAIatwork:ShapingthefutureofworkforwomeninAI,”2022.47.Ibid.Deloitte.Insghts46252630333643Gulshan,DavidMichael,andAntonioVarastrillion-dollarimpact,”BostonConsultingGroup,Jan.15,2015.3.IDCCorporate,“Thefutureofnext-genAIsmartphones,”Feb.19,204.Counterpoint,“GenAI-capablesmartphoneshipmentstogrowover4xby2027,”April16,2024.backintothetoppositibackintothetopposition,accordingtoIDCtracker.”S&PGlobal,March26,2024.backintothetopposition,accordingtoIDCtracker.”publicationforthcoming,2024.publicationforthcoming,2024.16.Deloitte,“GenerativeAI:7millionworkersandcounting,”June25,2024.18.Authorinterviewswithenterprisechiefinformationo¨cersinJulyandAugust2024.20.Ibid.21.DeloitteGlobalanalysisofpubliclyavailableinformationfor23.IDCCorporate,“Worldwidesmartphonemarketforecasttogrownearly6%in2024,d25.RoshanAshrafShaikh,“Analystsexpect15%pricehikeforAIPCs—60%ofcapabilitiesby2027,”Tom’sHardware,April26,2024.quarters,accordingtoIDC.”28.IDC,“Thefutureofnext-genAIsmartphones.”31.LisaEadicicco,“AIis34.Ibid.publicationforthcoming,2024.36.JonVictor,“SoftwareJournal,April1,2024.38.MichaelPeel,“Theproblemof‘modelcollapse’:HowalackofhumandatalimitsAIcivilization,”TheEconomist,April28,2023.Deloitte.Insghts3Deloitte.Deloitte.Insghts2636代理384143usegenAIareexploring“genAIagents”toa“large”or“verylarge”extent,withanother42%3.KateClark,“InvestorsundauntedbyspateofAIacqui-hires,”TheInformation,Augtaskswithouthumandirection.8.ScottWu,“IntroducingDevin,the¥rstAIsoftwareengineer,”CognitionSoftware,March12,2024.9.RinaDianeCaballar,“AICodingisgoingfromcopilottoautopilot,”IEEESpectrum,April9,2024.Times,Aug.14,2024;AswinAk,“OpenDevin:Anarti¥cialintelligenceplatformforthedevelopmentofpowerfulAIagentsthatinteractinsimilar2024.12.CognitionSoftware,“SWE-bench14.MollyTalbert,“Overcomingdisruptioninadistributedworld:InsightsfromtheAnatomyofWork17.OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment,“Multifactor20.Ibid.21.Ibid.24.“OpenAI,“LearningtoReasonwithLLMs,”Sept.12,2024.25.AnnaGutowska,“WhatareAIAgents?”IBM,July3,2024.26.JanakiramMSV,“AIagents:Keyconceptsandhowtheyovercom28.HamidouDia,“Somuchmorethangen29.VivekKulkarni,ScottHolcomb,PrakulSharma,EdwardVanBurenandCarolineRitter,“HowAIagentsarereshapingthefutureofwork,”DeloitteAIInstitute,November2024.31.CBInsights,“Themulti-agentAIoutlook:HeredevelopmentingenAI,”Aug.30,2024.32.MikeDesmarais,“Thecallcenterburnoutproblem,machinecollaboration,”DeloitteInsights,Nov.22,2022.gap,”WorldEconomicForum,April28,2024.workby90percent,”VentureBeat,April25,2024.round,”StartupDaily,June26,2023.April9,2024.Deloitte.Insghts1492022AnkitDhamejaMarch21,2024.Company,April23,2024;also16.AndrewHutchinson,“Xwillrequireadrevenueshareparticipantstocon¥rmtheirID,”SocialMedia17.GuyTytunovich,“Thefutureoftrustandveri¥cationforsocialmediaplatforms,”Forbes,May22,Institute,April24,2023.20.CaliforniaLegislativeInformation,“AssemblyBill3211—CaliforniaDigitalContentProvenanceDeloitte.Insghts2Deloitte.Deloitte.Insghts20222629。“GenerativeAI:7millionworkersandcounting,”June25,2024.Hollywoodinsidersspillontheir(least)favoritestreaminginterfaces,”VariAI.”telcostomaintainhealthymargins,”May3,2024.16.Sky,“O¨cialwebsite,”acce“Paramount+,Canal+expandpartnershipinFrance,”TheHollywoodReporter,Aug.18.Omdia,“OmdiaunveilssurgingSVODgrowthinCEEthroughstrategicpay23.DisneyPlus,“NewDisney+,Hulu,25.Ibid.26.Deloitte,“GenerativeAI.”29.Deloitte,“GenerativeAI.”AmazonUK,May10,2023.31.JankoRoettgers,“Chernin,AT&TSetBrandforNewOnlineVideoVenture:Ellation(Exclusive),”“Monthlyviewingsummary,”accessedNovemhighestbidder’,”TheHollywoodReporter,March6,2023;DianeHaithman,“WhySoDeloitte.Insghts 413211.GeorgeSzalai,“Studiopro¥treport:Ayearofmajortransition,”TheHollywoodReporter,April24,otheravailableindustryinformation.5.HannahMurphy,“MediagroupslooktoAItoolstocutcostsandcomplementstorytelling,”Financial7.Ibid;Murphy,“MediagroupslooktoAItoolstocutcostsandcomplementstorytelling.”8.AlonYaar,“What’sAmerican,March4,2024.March30,2024,untangle,”Variety,April17,2024.13.JenniferWolfe,“WhatwouldhavetohappenforgenAItotNABAmplify,July5,2024.Untangle.”17.USCopyrightO¨ce,“Copyrightandarti¥cialintelligence,”March16,2023.18.LucasShaw,“Alphabet,Metao§ermillionstopartnerWithHollywoodonAI,”Bloomberg,May23,19.ErinDegregorio,“Hollywoodisbacktoworkafterstrikes,butAIremainsinthespotlight,”Fordham21.LindseyWilkinson,“EUpassesAIAct,places¥rstbindingrule23.JowiMorales,“AImodelsthatcost$1billiontotrainareunlargestcurrentmodelstake'only'$100milliontotrain:AnthropicCEO,”Tom’sHardware,July7,24.RedHat,“Whatisanopen-sourceLLM?,”Jul25.KyleWiggers,“GenerativeAIstartupRunwayinksdealwithamajorHollywoodstudio,”TechCrunch,more,”TechCrunch,March20,2023;LaurenForrestal,“AvailrollsoutitsAIsummarizationtooltoHollywood.Hereare9startups28.TheEconomist,“Thedawnoftheomnistar,DigitalMediaTrends,DeloitteInsights,March20,2024.32.MichaelD.Smith,“Lessons34.DavidCahn,“AI’s$600billionquDeloitte.Insghts9。30billions,”BirminghamLive,April9,2024.2.Ibid.3.Ibid.billions.”townfor30years,”FOX13News,July31,2024.9.Ibid.multi-yearrenovations,”April4,2024.Populous,”April6,2023.15.KatelinKharrati,“Globalsmartstadiummarketsizelikelytoexpandatacompound18.Giorgio,Jarvis,Auxier,Bobich,andHarwood,“2023sportsfaninsights.”34.Ibid.37.Ibid.in¥rst-of-its-kindWomen’sNationalBask39.MorganOfori,“Brightonreadytosparkrevolutionwithwomen’sfootballstadium,”TheGuardian,40.SimiIluyomade,“ManchesterCityWomenarebui42.GeorginaYeomans,“HowFormulaOnetransformeditshospitalityproduct,”BlackBookMotorsport,43.Deloitte,TheFutureofSport2023,April2023.45.Directorate-GeneralforClimateAction,“S“professional”sportswhereparticipantsarepaidfortheirperformance.Deloitte.Insghts23Deloitte.Deloitte.Insghts其他其他有线网络有线网络信号塔信号塔科技通信套组移动移动光纤光纤数据中心数据中心0Deloitte.Insghts5142023243334354.DuncanStewart,DanLittmann,GirijaKrishnamurthy,andMattiLittunen,“Telecomstacklethe6.ArdorCommNewsNetwork,“TelecomM&Aactivitywitnessessurge:514dealsfrom2019to2023,”ArdorCommMediaGroup,July25,2024.8.A§andyJohan,“5GinMalaysia–Singlewholesale9.DigitalRegulationPlatform,“Changingtheoperatingmodel:thecreationofUNNinBruneiDarussalam,”Aug.27,2020.10.AustralianCompetition&ConsumerCommission,“OptusMobilePtyLtdandTPGTelecomLimitedliteraturereview,”SageOpen,April26,2022.12.DeteconSpotlight,“Telcomergersandacquisitions,”2022;M&ACommunity,“GarcíaMoreno,andBillParish,“EnergyandtelcodealspowerMexicanM&A,”White&Case,March2023;TomLeins,“Deal-makingDownMarch24,2021.15.CompetitionandMarketsAuthority,“Howweareinvestigatin17.EnricoLetta,“Muchmorethanamarket,”Consilium,April2024.19.HamishWhite,“Europe’sloomingmobilecrisis,”Technative,April2024.20.MarioDraghi,“EUcompetitiveness:Looki23.DeloitteauthorconversationswithcommunicationsprovidersinNoPuneetTakyar,“ThejourneyofMVNOs,”Comviva,April1,2021.29.MattWalker,“Telcocapitalintensityhits10yearpeakin2Q22,”MTNConsulting,Sept.6,2022.32.DataHub,“Regulatoryauthority-InstitutionalstructfrombusinessatOECD(BIAC),”slowrolloutinUK,”StrandConsult,Oct.5,2024.periodof2015toOctober2024.Deloitte.Insghts”20212.YuryIzrailevsky,StevanVlaovic,andRuslanMeshenberg,“CompletingtheNet¦ixcloudmigration,”Net¦ix,Feb.12,2016.5.Flexera,“2024Stateofthecloudreport,”2024.6.Ibid.10.Flexera,“2024Stateofthecloudrepo12.NikhilRoychowdhury,NikJethi,FarhanAkram,andRishabhKochhar,“Optimizingthevalueofcloud:Aguidetogettingstarted,”Deloitte,March30,2023.17.MagdaPuzniak-Holford,Deloitte.Insghts61522272829323637384043444649 5456586063Deloitte.Deloitte.Insghts75778298Deloitte.Deloitte.Insghts算力Deloitte.InsghtsDeloitte.Insghts1.I,“Earningscall:NVIDIApostsrecordrevenue,b2.NitinMittaletal.,“Nowdecidesnext:GettingrealaboutgenerativeAI,”Deloitte’sAIintheEnterpriseQ2report,April2024.edgecomputingmarket,”Deloitte2023GlobalTMTPredictiongrowth,”Deloitte2021GlobalTMTPredictions,December7,2020.7.Rowanetal.,“Nowdecidesnext:Movingfrompotentialtoperformance.”March6,2024.2024;BijitGhosh,“Theriseofsmalllanguagemodels—e¨cient&customizable,”Medium,Novemberriseofsmalllanguagemodels—e¨cient&customizable.”16.JenniferL,“Thecarboncountdown:AMarch27,2023.“professional”sportwhereparticipantsarepaidfortheirperformance.revenuein2024.”BBCNews,April5,202andNBC,”APNews,July24,2024.33.DougFeinberg,“WNBAawardsPortlandanexpansionfranchisethatwillbegi34.Ibid.Toronto,”SportBusiness,37.Ibid.39.Ibid.42.TimothyBridgeetal.,“DeloitteFootballMoneyLeague2024,”DeloitteUK,January12,2023.45.MegLinehan,“SpiritownerM52.GagandeepKaur,“Why5GisfailingtogainmomentuminIndia,”LightReading,April25,April22,2024.59.Deloitteanalysisofpubliclyreportedinformationfromwirelessnetworko64.Ibid.65.Ibid.70.GSA,“GSAMarketSnapshotMarch-2024,”March2024.74.Ibid;GSMA,The5Gguide:Areference78.Ibid.79.PhilippePoggiantiandPratikDasHorn,“6Gfoundry:Makethemigrationfrom5Gto6Garewardingexperience,”Qualcomm,May14,promise?,”Opensignal,April4,2024.82.MikeDano,“Adeeperdiveintothe5GnetworkAPIopportunity,”LightReading,April1,2024.Conference,”April23,2024.85.CarolineGabriel,“OpenRAN:deliverthefullbene¥ts,”AnalysysMason,April2023.thefutureofmobilenetworks,”Deloitte88.ZinebGdali,“Thefutureofmobilenetworks:Exploringthebene¥tsofOpenRAN5G,”Firecell,mobilenetworks.”91.TeckNexus,“CurrentstateofOpenRAN—countries&operatorsdeploying&trialingOpenRAN,”95.Ibid.96.Ibid.97.IainMorris,“Telcosdoubtopen98.DanOliver,“OpenRAN:Everythingyouneedtoknow,”5Gradar,July23,2021;MikeDano,“How101.Oliver,“OpenRAN:Everythingyouneedtoknow.”102.DavidDebrecht,“Buildingasmarter5GfuturethroughOpen105.ScottBuchholzetal.,“Quanlaptops,”TMTPredictions2019,DeloitteInsights,2018,pp.96–103.