财务-54张管理用财务报表模板(带释义和公式)1201

时间序列预测分析,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

,,,,,,,单位：元,,,,,,,,,,,

季度,t,销售额Y,四项平均,二项平均TC,SI=Y/TC,季节变化S,长期趋势T,周期变化C,,,,,,,,,,

A,B,C,D,E,F,,G,H,,SUMMARYOUTPUT,,,,,,,,

20101,1,3017.60,,,,1.1204,2749.40,,,,,,,,,,,

2,2,3043.54,2741.33,,,1.1085,2786.80,,,回归统计,,,,,,,,

3,3,2094.35,2805.63,2773.48,0.7551,0.7455,2824.20,0.9820,,MultipleR,0.338883484,,,,,,,

4,4,2809.84,2835.57,2820.60,0.9962,1.0257,2861.60,0.9857,,RSquare,0.114842015,,,,,,,

20111,5,3274.80,2840.56,2838.06,1.1539,1.1204,2899.00,0.9790,,AdjustedRSquare,0.051616445,,,,,,,

2,6,3163.28,2894.24,2867.40,1.1032,1.1085,2936.39,0.9765,,标准误差,511.6752361,,,,,,,

3,7,2114.31,2907.41,2900.83,0.7289,0.7455,2973.79,0.9755,,观测值,16,,,,,,,

4,8,3024.57,2989.96,2948.69,1.0257,1.0257,3011.19,0.9792,,,,,,,,,,

20121,9,3327.48,3071.37,3030.66,1.0979,1.1204,3048.59,0.9941,,方差分析,,,,,,,,

2,10,3493.48,3187.92,3129.64,1.1163,1.1085,3085.99,1.0141,,,df,SS,MS,F,SignificanceF,,,

3,11,2439.93,3277.32,3232.62,0.7548,0.7455,3123.39,1.0350,,回归分析,1,475550.7244,475550.7244,1.8163856,0.199149911,,,

4,12,3490.79,3319.26,3298.29,1.0584,1.0257,3160.79,1.0435,,残差,14,3665361.662,261811.5473,,,,,

20131,13,3685.08,3303.88,3311.57,1.1128,1.1204,3198.19,1.0355,,总计,15,4140912.386,,,,,,

2,14,3661.23,3296.07,3299.98,1.1095,1.1085,3235.59,1.0199,,,,,,,,,,

3,15,2378.43,,,,0.7455,3272.98,,,,Coefficients,标准误差,tStat,P-value,Lower95%,Upper95%,下限95.0%,上限95.0%

4,16,3459.55,,,,1.0257,3310.38,,,Intercept,2712.0005,268.3247575,10.10715718,8.18473E-08,2136.501132,3287.499868,2136.501132,3287.499868

20141,17,3761.42,,,,,,,,XVariable1,37.39891176,27.74948581,1.347733505,0.199149911,-22.11781599,96.91563952,-22.11781599,96.91563952

2,18,3765.58,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

3,19,2545.06,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

4,20,3558.81,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

,,,,,,,,,,RESIDUALOUTPUT,,,,,,,,

回归函数方程：,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

y=,2712.00,+,37.3989,*t,,,,,,观测值,预测Y,残差,,,,,,

,,,,,,,,,,1,2749.399412,268.2005882,,,,,,

年份,一季度,二季度,三季度,四季度,,,,,,2,2786.798324,256.7416765,,,,,,

2010,,,0.7551,0.9962,,,,,,3,2824.197235,-729.8472353,,,,,,

2011,1.1539,1.1032,0.7289,1.0257,,,,,,4,2861.596147,-51.75614706,,,,,,

2012,1.0979,1.1163,0.7548,1.0584,,,,,,5,2898.995059,375.8049412,,,,,,

2013,1.1128,1.1095,,,,,,,,6,2936.393971,226.8860294,,,,,,

样本季节指数,1.1215,1.1096,0.7463,1.0268,4.0042,,,,,7,2973.792882,-859.4828824,,,,,,

季节指数修正,1.1204,1.1085,0.7455,1.0257,4.0000,,,,,8,3011.191794,13.37820588,,,,,,

,,,,,,,,,,9,3048.590706,278.8892941,,,,,,

2014年各季度的销售预测值,,,,,,,,,,10,3085.989618,407.4903824,,,,,,

季度,T,S,C,销售额预测,,,,,,11,3123.388529,-683.4585294,,,,,,

1,3347.78,1.1204,1.0029,3761.42,,,,,,12,3160.787441,330.0025588,,,,,,

2,3385.18,1.1085,1.0035,3765.58,,,,,,13,3198.186353,486.8936471,,,,,,

3,3422.58,0.7455,0.9975,2545.06,,,,,,14,3235.585265,425.64