英文【abiresearch】101 将不会塑造 2025 年的技术趋势

101TECHNOLOGYTRENDS

THATWILL—ANDWON’T—SHAPE2025

FromOurChiefResearchOfficer

Thislastyearhasbeenfraughtwithchallengesandheadwinds.Globalconflicttowaninginflationarypressuretopolitical

uncertaintyhaveallputpressureonenterpriseandconsumerspending.Theresultismarketswithbuilt-ininertia,short-termisminrelationtotechnologyinvestments,cashonthesidelines,andanultimatesortingofwheatfromchaffasvulnerablesuppliersbecomeexposed.

Fromthisbleakbackdrop,whatdoes2025hold?Globalmanufacturingindexesarecomingoutofthebottomoftheirslumpsorattheendofhistoricallylongdownturns(Germanyexcepted),U.S.politicaluncertaintyhasbeenresolvedtoacertainextent,inflationarypressuresarenowreturningtonormallevels,andthereisaprospecttoresolveglobalconflict.

Thiswouldsuggestweareintheterritoryofareboundandimprovedglobalfortunes.However,therearesomeendemicsustainedtrendsthatwillcontinuetohaveimpactsonmarketsmovingforward.Governmentdebtandthesizeofstatesarestillaffecting

usfollowingCOVID-19-leddecisions,theprospectofaglobaltariffbattlelooms,underlyingissuesofskilledworkforceavailabilityexist,globalproductivitygrowthhasslowed,andfreeriskappetiteislow.Sustainabilityrequirementsandreportingcontinuetobestressors,especiallyforsmallerorganizations.

Sowhatdoesallofthismeanforthetechnologylandscapemovingforward?Wheresolutionsmeetnear-termReturnon

Investment(ROI)goals,theywillbeadopted.Wheresolutionsalleviatesomeoftheendemicriskfactorssuchasworkforceskillsorproductivity,theyarelikelytoresultinsuccessfulimplementationandadoption.

Fromatechnologyperspective,itisclearthatmanyindustriesandendmarketsareinthatawkwardstageoftechnologyadoptionwheretheyareformulatingimplementationstrategies,assessingsolutionsandpartners,andworkingoutiftheyhavethe

resourcesneededtorolloutsolutionsatscale.Thisisaparticularlysensitivetimeandittendstosuggestweareonthebrinkofaperiodofamassivetechnologyshiftastheseorganizationsworkthroughtheseissues.

ThiscomingyearwillbekeyinunderstandinghowArtificialIntelligence(AI),GenerativeArtificialIntelligence(GenAI),thecloud,

theedge,thehybridcloud,ExtendedReality(XR),enterprise5G,andtheambientInternetofThings(IoT)willdevelop.Itwilltellusmuchabouttheprofileofadoption,timelines,andkeycriticalsuccessfactorsthesetechnologieswillbesubjectto.Muchisneededintermsofshiftingfromvisioneeringtoreal-worldmarketing,education,marketingaroundalleviatingpressingendemicrisks,andshiftingtosmallerpracticalrevenue-generatingimplementations,ratherthantryingto“boiltheocean.”

Welookforwardtohelpingourclientsnavigatetheintricaciesof2025.Focusingoncustomervalue,drivingROI,andaddressingendemicissueswillbekeyfactorstosuccess.

—StuartCarlaw

ResearchServiceAreas

5G&6GCloud-NativeSystems 3

5GDevices,Smartphones,&Wearables 5

5G,6G&OpenRAN 7

AI&MachineLearning 9

CitizenDigitalIdentity 13

CircularityTechnologiesandPrograms 14

ConsumerTechnologies 15

DigitalPaymentTechnologies 17

ElectricVehicles 18

HybridCloud&5GMarkets 19

Industrial&ManufacturingMarkets 21

Industrial&ManufacturingTechnologies 22

Industrial,Collaborative,andCommercialRobotics 24

IoTHardware 25

IoTMarkets 26

IoTNetworks&Platforms 27

LocationTechnologies 28

Next-GenerationHybridCloudSolutions 29

OTCybersecurity 30

QuantumSafeTechnologies 31

SpaceTechnologies 33

SmartBuildings 36

SmartEnergyforEnterprises&Industries 37

SmartMobility&Automotive 38

SoutheastAsiaDigitalTransformation 40

SupplyChainManagement&Logistics 42

SustainabilityforIndustrialMarkets 43

SustainabilityforTelcoMarkets 44

TelcoCybersecurity 45

TrustedDeviceSolutions 46

Wi-Fi&WLANTechnologies&Markets 47

Wi-Fi,Bluetooth®&WirelessConnectivity 48

XRMarkets 49

XRTechnologies 50

2101TECHTRENDSTHATWILLANDWON’THAPPENIN2025

5G&6GCLOUD-NATIVESYSTEMS

1

WILL

HAPPEN

Traditionaltelcovendorsfacetheirdayofreckoningin2025:partnerorperish.

Theyear2025willmarkastrategicbifurcationininfrastructurevendors’revenuestreams,withapronouncedfocusonuntapped5GmarketsandAI-drivenmonetizationsolutions.InemergingmarketsacrossEastern

Europe,Africa,WestAsia,andLatinAmerica,vendorswillpromotedirect-to-5G-Advanceddeployments,

leveraginglessonslearnedfromearlyadopters’challenges.This“leapfrog”approach,promisingArtificial

Intelligence(AI)-integratedequipmentfromdayone,willappealtooperatorsseekingtoavoidthecostly

transitionfromNon-Standalone(NSA)deployments,whileimmediatelybenefitingfromautomated,energy-

efficientoperations.Thetimingalignsperfectlywiththesemarkets’readinesstoinvest,asspectrumallocationsmatureanddigitaltransformationinitiativesgaingovernmentbacking.

Meanwhile,inmature5GmarketslikeWesternEurope,NorthAmerica,andChina,infrastructurevendorswillfaceacriticalpivotintheirbusinessmodels.Asoperators’traditionalCapitalExpenditure(CAPEX)spending

plateausduetocompleted5GrolloutsanddisappointingAverageRevenueperUser(ARPU)growth,vendorswillbeforcedtoreinventtheirvaluepropositionthroughAIintegration.However,theywillincreasinglyfind

themselvescompetingwithspecializedAIcompaniesforoperators’technologybudgets.Thiscompetition

willdriveafundamentalshiftinthevendorlandscape,leadingtostrategicpartnershipsbetweentraditional

infrastructurespecialistsandAI-focusedcompanies.Thesecollaborationswillcombinetelco-gradenetwork

expertisewithadvancedAIcapabilities,offeringoperatorsamorecompellingpathtonetworkmonetization

thaneithergroupcouldprovidealone.AnexceptiontothismodelwillbeChinesevendors,whichwillmaintaintheirtraditionalend-to-endapproach,leveragingin-houseAImodels,computingresources,andproprietaryAIchips.Whilethisvertically-integratedstrategywillprovesuccessfulwithinChina’suniquemarketenvironment,itwilllikelyfaceresistanceinotherregionswherethepartnershipmodelwillbecomethepreferredpathforward.

2

WILL

HAPPEN

AIandautomationwillacceleratetelcostowardcloud-native.

Networkinfrastructurevendorshavedeveloped5Gtechnologybeyondwhatoperatorscanabsorbfinanciallyandimplementatfullcommercialscale.The5GCoreisthebestexampleofthisbecausedespitethecentralityofthistechnologyforrealizingthebenefitsof5G,mostbrownfieldoperatorsarehobbledbylegacystacksor

majorinvestmentsin5GNewRadio(NR)andstillunabletoimplementa5GSACore.Future-focusedvendorsoverlookthelong-termsupportrequiredforlegacyand,insomecases,eventheroadmapsneededfor

operatortransition.WithNSAdemandcontinuingforthenext5+years,networkvendorswillneedtorepositiontowardinteroperabilityandbuildingbridgestothemoderninfrastructurefromlegacy,overallprovidinga

clearerpathwayintothefuturefromwhereoperatorsstandtoday.

Innovationdoesnotalwaysoccuratthecuttingedge,butcanalsofindcommongroundwhereitcanadvanceoperators’paceawayfromlegacy.For2025,weexpecttoseeinnovationsandservicesthatappreciate

operators’immediateneeds,whilealsoboostingtheirjourneystowardlong-term5Gcloud-nativeplans.

Examplesinclude:1)VirtualNetworkFunction(VNF)-compatiblecloud-nativeplatformswithattractive

automationfeaturesthatcanusheroperatorsfromcloud-basedintocloud-native;2)enhancementtocloudserviceswiththeuseofAItools,suchasthoseassessingcloud-readinessorcloud-migrationstrategies;and3)improvedinternalApplicationProgrammingInterface(API)enablementforinteroperabilitybetweenlegacyandmodernsystemswithinthenetworkecosystem.Theyear2024hasalreadyseenadvancementsineachofthesestrategicareasbyRedHat,Amdocs,andNokia,respectively,andwewouldanticipatethatwithearlyevidenceofcommercialsuccess,theseorsimilarsolutionswilldiffusethroughthemarketin2025.

3101TECHTRENDSTHATWILLANDWON’THAPPENIN2025

5G&6GCLOUD-NATIVESYSTEMS

3

WILL

HAPPEN

New5Gtrafficpatternsemerge,drivenbynewdevicesandAI.

Newdevicesandtraffictrendsarestartingtoemerge,completelychangingthewaynetworkswillbedesigned

anddimensionedinthefuture.Smartglasses,likethosefromRay-Ban,aregainingappealamongconsumers,

despitenotyetbeingmainstream.Thesedevicescanimpacttrafficpatterns,asRay-Bansmartglasses,for

instance,record1440x1920videoat30FramesperSecond(fps),requiring2–15MegabitsperSecond(Mbps)

ofuplinkcapacityandconnecttosmartphonesviaWi-FiorBluetooth®,whichthenuploadvideostotheweb.

Withadownlink/uplinkratioof1/200,theyconsumeminimaldownlinkbandwidth.However,ashundredsor

thousandsofsuchdevicesoperateinacity,uplinktrafficdemandswillincrease,promptingoperatorstoconsiderreallocatingresourcestotheuplink.Similarapplicationsexistontheenterprisedomain,suchasthelow-altitudeeconomywheredroneshaveminimalimpactonthedownlink,butrequirehighcapacityontheuplinkfor

telemetryandotheroperations.Chineseoperators,havingdeployed5GStandalone(SA)sinceDay1,arealreadymonetizingtheirnetworksinaneffectivemanner,includingprioritypackagesformedia,mobilegaming,and

stadiums.TheseoperatorsareshowingtheworldwhatiscapablewithSAandhaveevenlaunchednetworkslicingcapabilities,furtherchangingtrafficpatterns.

Theyear2025willbepivotalfortelcostounderstandhowthesenewdevicesandAIapplicationswillchangehowtheirnetworksarebeingdeployed.

4

WON’THAPPEN

TelcosbecomestakeholdersintheAImarketthrough

NVIDIApartnershipsin2025.

NVIDIA,inpartnershipwithSoftBank,announcedlarge-scaledeploymentofitsGraphicsProcessingUnit(GPU)inJapan.Infact,SoftBankwillbethefirstcompanytoreceiveNVIDIA’snewBlackwellservers,usingthemtobuildasupercomputertobeusedbyuniversities,researchinstitutions,andbusinessesthroughoutJapan.NVIDIAisalsosigningmoredealswithseveraloperators,includingKDDIinJapan,OoredooinQatar,andmanyothers.

TheSoftBankdeploymentincludestelconetworkelements,withGPUsdeployedacrossthenetworkand

monetizedinaGPU-as-a-Service(GPUaaS)businessmodel.SoftBankandNVIDIAclaimthattheseserverscan

generatea5XROIwhenadequatelypopulatedwithAIinferencemodels,goingwellbeyondtheirtraditionaluse,

meaningRadioAccessNetwork(RAN)processing.Thequestioniswhetherthiswillbesuccessfulandifothertelcoscanreplicatethisexamplein2025,inanattempttobreakfreeoftheirconnectivitylegacyandenternewmarkets.ABIResearchdoesnotexpectothertelcostomakesuchboldpartnershipsandinvestments,especiallyasmostarecashstrapped.Moreover,theGPUaaSbusinessmodel,althoughenticing,islargelyunprovenandincurs

significantcapitalinvestmentandrisk—GPUsarenotcheap.SoftBankmaybethefirstamongmany,but2025willnotlikelyseesimilarmodelsbeingdeployedinglobalmarkets.

5

WON’THAPPEN

TelcoAPIswillhelptelcosmonetizetheirassets.

VendorcompetitionforleadershipwithnetworkAPIsisheatingupin2024.First,inSeptember,Ericsson

announcedthatitwillbeleadingajointventurewith12CommunicationServiceProviders(CSPs)toaggregate

andexposenetworkAPIsonitsglobalplatform.Then,inNovember,Nokiarepliedwithitsannouncementthat

ithadacquiredRapidTechnologiestobuilduponitsAPImarketplaceforitsownglobalplatform.OthervendorshavealsobeenactivewithinternalenablementofnetworkAPIs.Thestakesforwinnersinthismarketarehigh

withexpectationsthatAPIswillbeamajorassetfor5Gmonetization.ABIResearchultimatelyforecastsaUS$13billionmarketby2028.Despiteallthisintensificationofthemarket,wedonotexpectAPIstobeamajorsourceofrevenuein2025.

Thereareseveralmajorobstaclestothisrevenue.First,thepaceof5GSAtransitionwillslowmonetization.

WhilenetworkAPIscanbeusedwithlegacy,adoptionwillbeacceleratedby5GSA,whichallowsforgranular

managementincontrollingnetworkresources,especially5GapplicationssuchasnetworkslicingandUltra-

ReliableLowLatencyCommunications(URLLC).Second,networkvendorsstillneedtogaintractionwithdevelopercommunitiesthatwillbuildtheapplicationsfortheglobalplatforms.Therehavebeenhistoricchallengesto

accomplishingthis.Finally,weshouldnotoverlookthetechnicalchallengesposedbyAPIplatforms.TheseplatformsneedtoaccommodatediverseAPIsfromQuality-on-Demand(QoD)tonetworkslicingandedgediscovery,theymustscaletomillionsofconsumers,andtheymustalsofeaturesophisticatedsolutionsformonetizationthatspandeveloper,vendor,andoperatorcontributions.

4101TECHTRENDSTHATWILLANDWON’THAPPENIN2025

5GDEVICES,SMARTPHONES,&WEARABLES

6

WILL

HAPPEN

7

WILL

HAPPEN

AIPCswillbecomethenewnormalin2025,

movingfrompremiumtostandardmarketfeature.

Theyear2025willmarktheonewhenArtificialIntelligence(AI)-enabledPersonalComputers(PCs)transition

quicklyfroma“nicetohave”featuretooneofnecessity,capturingapproximately60%oftotalPCshipments

accordingtoABIResearchforecasts.Thisdramaticshiftwillbedrivenbytheconvergenceofseveralkeyfactors:

theproliferationofNeuralProcessingUnits(NPUs)acrossdifferentpricetiers,themainstreamadoptionof

LargeLanguageModels(LLMs)foreverydaycomputingtasks,andthestrategiclaunchofMicrosoft’sWindows12in2H2025.Microsoft’snewOperatingSystem(OS),optimizedforAIworkloadsanddeeperCopilot

integration,willtriggerasignificantenterprisereplacementcycle.ThecompellingpropositionofAIPCswillbestrengthenedfurtherbytheirsuperiorpowerefficiencyduringAIworkloads,offeringextendedbatterylife,whilerunningincreasinglysophisticatedon-deviceAIapplications.

Themarketdynamicswillbeshapedbyintensecompetitionbetweentraditionalx86vendorsandtheArm

ecosystem,withQualcomm’spushintolower-pricednotebooksegmentswithits“budgetfriendly”SnapdragonXPlus8-corechipdemocratizingAIPCaccess.Thiscompetitivelandscapewillaccelerateinnovation,while

drivingdowncosts,makingAIcapabilitiesstandardacrossmostpricepoints.Enterpriseadoptionwillbe

particularlystrong,drivenbytheproliferationofproductivity-enhancingGenerativeArtificialIntelligence(GenAI)applicationsandthepromiseofimprovedemployeeefficiency.However,thesuccessofthistransition

willdependheavilyontheecosystem’sabilitytodelivercompellingusecasesthatjustifytheAIpremium,

particularlyinthecommercialsectorwheretheReturnonInvestment(ROI)ofAI-enhancedproductivitytoolswillbecrucialforwidespreadadoption.

Smartringadoptionwillgainmomentumin2025.

Considerableexpansionofthesmartringwearablemarketisexpectedin2025.Themarketiscurrently

dominatedbyaplethoraofspecializedstartups,includingOura,McLEAR,Jackom,SLEEPON,Keydex,

Ultrahuman,NodRing,e-Senses,andmanyothers.However,thereisincreasinginterestamongmajorbrandsinthesegmentfollowingSamsung’sentrancewithitsGalaxyRinginJuly2024andApple’srumoredinterest,whichwillhelplegitimizetheformfactoranddrivebroaderconsumerawareness.Themarketwillstratify

acrossdifferentpricetiers,withpremiumofferingsfromestablishedbrands(Oura,Samsung,andpotentiallyApple)focusingoncomprehensivehealthmetricsandsleeptracking,whilemoreaffordableoptionsfrom

companieslikeAmazfitandXiaomiwilltargetspecificcoreusecases,suchasfitnesstrackingandmobilepayments.Newplayersareexpectedtoemergewithspecializedofferingsformedicalmonitoringand

enterpriseapplications,whileotherestablishedjewelrybrandsmaypartnerwithtechcompaniestocreatefashion-ledsmartrings,possiblyusingpreciousstonesandmaterialstoofferpremiumpriceddevices.

However,thesmartringwillremaincomplementary,ratherthanaprimarywearablein2025,servingasa

companiontosmartwatches,ratherthanasareplacement.Growthwillbedrivenbyimprovedbatterylife

(reachingupto7days),enhancedsensorsforhealthmonitoring,andtheirunobtrusiveformfactor.Businessmodelswilldiversifybeyondthetraditionalhardware-plus-subscriptionapproachpioneeredbyOura,with

somemanufacturersofferingbasicfeatureswithoutsubscriptionstohelpdriveadoptionandgrowthe

ecosystem.Enterpriseadoptionwillbegintoemergeinspecificverticalslikehealthcareandworkplacesecurity,thoughconsumerapplicationswillstilldominate.Despitethismomentum,smartringswillcaptureonlya

fractionofthebroaderwearablesmarket,accountingforjust6%oftotalshipmentsin2025,significantlybelowsmartwatchesandfitnesstrackerssectors,whichwillholdsharesof42%and28%,respectively.

5101TECHTRENDSTHATWILLANDWON’THAPPENIN2025

5GDEVICES,SMARTPHONES,&WEARABLES

8

WON’THAPPEN

Semiconductoronshoringdreamswillnotcometrue.

Theyear2025willmarkacriticalrealitycheckforsemiconductormanufacturingonshoringambitionsinthe

UnitedStatesandEurope,asimplementationcomplexitiesforcesignificanttimelinerevisions.ThefirstmajorhurdleemergedwiththeactivationoftheU.S.CHIPSActitself—whileestablishedbytheBidenadministrationinAugust2022,ittookuntilNovember2024toactivateandgrantIntelUS$7.86billionfornewfoundrysitesacrossthecountry.DespiteIntel’sambitiousUS$100billioninvestmentcommitment,thepracticalchallengesofestablishingadvancedsemiconductormanufacturingareprovingfarmoreformidablethananticipated.

Keyprojects,includingIntel’sfacilitiesinArizonaandOhio,andTSMC’sArizonafab,facedelaysdueto

multipleconstraints:ASML’slimitedExtremeUltravioletLithography(EUV)machineproductioncapacity,

workforcedevelopmentchallenges,andthecomplexityofestablishingoperationalexcellenceinnewlocations.Consequently,theseprojectsareunlikelytoachievefulloperationalcapacitybefore2027attheearliest.Thesituationinotherregionsoftheworld,notablyinEurope,appearevenmorechallenging,withmajorprojectslikeIntel’sMagdeburgfacilityfacingdelaysandfundinguncertainties,potentiallyderailingtheEU’sgoalto

capture20%ofglobalchipproductionby2030.

Thesesetbackswilltriggerastrategicreassessmentin2025,asstakeholdersconfronttherealitythatbuildingtrulyself-sufficientlocalsupplychainsdemandssignificantlymoretimeandresourcesthaninitiallyprojected.WhilepoliticalcommitmenttoonshoringintheUnitedStatesandEuroperemainsstrongerthanever,

practicalconstraintswillforceamoremeasuredapproachtocapacityexpansion.Companieswillprioritize

theirbusinessinterestsbyadoptingpragmaticdiversificationstrategies,ratherthancompleteonshoring,

focusingonstrategicpartnershipsamongtrustedpartners.Thisrealitycheckwillparticularlyimpactadvancednodemanufacturingplans,asASML’sequipmentconstraints(limitedtoproducingaround70EUVmachinesannuallyby2025)andmassivecapitalrequirementsforcestakeholderstoprioritizecertainprojects,while

delayingothers.Thesemiconductorcoldwar’simpactwillextendbeyondtheindustryitself,potentiallyslowingtechnologicaladvancementinAIandothercutting-edgeapplicationsthatrelyonleading-edgechips.

Formoreinformationonsemiconductoronshoringchallenges,seeABIInsight,“TheGeopoliticalSemiconductorColdWar:ChallengesandImpactsofOnshoringManufacturing.”

9

WON’THAPPEN

Arm-basedPCswillnotbemorethanaminoritysegmentin2025.

ABIResearchforecaststhatArm-basedPCswillrepresentonly13%oftotalPCshipmentsin2025,despitethisbeingapivotalyearforArm’sPCmarketexpansion.WhileQualcomm’slatestPCprocessorsofferenhanced

performanceandAIcapabilities,itsmarketimpactdependsheavilyonresolvingongoingArmlicensing

disputes.x86incumbentsIntelandAMDwillcontinuetorulethemassmarketandwillmaintaintheirsignificantadvantageinsoftwarecompatibility.

Inthehigh-endandmid-rangesegmentsoftheconsumermarket,AI-capablelaptopswillbecomethekey

competitivebattleground,whereArm’ssuperiorpowerefficiencyenablesall-daybatterylife,evenwhenrunningadvancedconsumerworkloads—acompellingadvantageformodernconsumerlifestyle.Itisinthehigh-end

thatApplehascontinuedtoservicethissegmentoftheArm-basedlaptopmarket,butithasnoambitiontoaddressthelowertiers.EnterpriseadoptionofArm-basedlaptopswilllikelyremainmodestthrough2025asorganizationsawaitbroaderecosystemmaturity.Consumermarketgainswillprimarilycomethroughspecificsegmentslikethin-and-lightlaptopsandcreator-focuseddevices,withsuccessheavilydependentonthe

optimizationofWindows12fortheArmarchitecture.

6101TECHTRENDSTHATWILLANDWON’THAPPENIN2025

5G,6G&OPENRAN

10

WILL

HAPPEN

11

WILL

HAPPEN

Vendorswillprioritizegreenantennas

todrivecostreductionandefficiency.

In2025,sustainabilitywilldrivetheantennaindustry,withgreenantennasplayingasignificantroleinachievingenvironmentalandoperationalgoals.Greenantennashipments,currentlyabout27%ofglobalantenna

shipments,areexpectedtorapidlygrowasvendorsinnovatetomeettheincreasingdemandforsustainable

solutions.Thisgrowthispropelledbytheemphasisongreendesignprinciplesinoperatorrequirements,wheremanyRequestsforQuotation(RFQs)nowmandatethatantennasmeetspecificsustainabilitycriteria.

Greenantennasstandoutnotonlyfortheirfunctionality,butalsofortheircommitmenttoenvironmentalresponsibility,focusingonenergy-efficientdesignsandsolutionsthatminimizevisualimpact.These

advancementsalignwithoperators’prioritiesofenergyandcostefficiency.Asthedemandfor5Ginfrastructuregrows,operatorswilladoptthesegreensolutionsduetotheiradvancedtechnologiesandalignmentwith

broaderindustrygoalstoreduceenergyconsumptionandcarbonfootprints.

Traditionalpassiveantennashavesignificantenergylossesindesignandmanufacturing,leadingtohigherenergyoutputandincreasedCarbonDioxide(CO2)emissions.Withbasestationsandantennasaccountingfor57%ofallelectricalpowerconsumptioninpassiveantennanetworks,thisisacriticalareaforvendorstotarget.In2025,thefocuswillbeonreducingenergyconsumption,whileimprovingRadioFrequency(RF)efficiency,drivingthe

increaseofgreenantennashipmentsastheindustrymeetssustainabilitytargetsandsupports5Gexpansion.

AutomationandAItakethespotlightforOpenRAN.

TheOpenRadioAccessNetwork(RAN)marketfacedamorechallengingyearthananticipatedheadedinto2024,withnocommercialactivitymatchingthesizeandscaleoftheAT&TcontractthatEricssonannouncedinDecember2023.Operatorsaretakingaconservativeapproachtoadoptingthetechnology,beingcarefulandensuringtheyarenotthefirsttofailwiththeirlaunch,giventhatthetechnologyisstillrelativelynew.

Whileinitiallythisseemsall“doomandgloom,”vendorshave,atthesametime,spentthisyearworkingonprovinginteroperabilityinamulti-vendorenvironmenttohelpscoreOpenRANcontractsgoingforward.OneofthekeytechnologiesrelatedtoOpenRANistherelatedautomationtechnologies—ServiceManagementandOrchestration(SMO),Non-Real-TimeRadioIntelligenceController(Non-RTRIC),andNear-RTRIC.ThesetechnologiesaredesignedtoreplacethelegacySelf-OrganizingNetwork(SON)technology,whichhasbeenaroundsincethe4Gera.

WithprettymuchallmajorinfrastructurevendorsnowsupportingOpenRANinterfacesfortheirhardware

(especiallyfortheradio),theindustrywillbeworkingdiligentlytoacceleratethedevelopmentoftheirRAN

automationtechnologiestohelpcommercialviabilityofdeploymentin2025,especiallytoensurethattheirlatestRANautomationsolutionscanenablethelatest5Gtechnologiessuchasnetworkslicing.Furthermore,forthe

OpenRANautomationtechnologytobeadopted,itneedstohavealevelofacceptanceforthetraditionalRANnetworksstillwidelyavailabletoevolvebeyondbeingviewedsolelyasan“OpenRANtechnology.”

7101TECHTRENDSTHATWILLANDWON’THAPPENIN2025

5G,6G&OPENRAN

12

WON’THAPPEN

13

WON’THAPPEN

Activeantennaswillnotreplacepassivesystemsin5Gdeployments.

WhileactiveandActive+Passive(A+P)antennasolutionsaregainingtractionduetotheirefficiencyandhighperformance,theideathatpassiveantennaswillbephasedoutby2025isunrealistic.ThepassiveantennamarkethasseensomestagnationduetoeconomicpressuresandoperatorsprioritizingclearROI,yetpassiveantennasstilloffercriticalbenefitsincertainnetworkenvironmentswherecostefficiencyandsimplicityarecrucial.Theyarethepreferredchoiceforlower-frequencyspectrumbands(<3Gigahertz(GHz)),essentialforbroad5Gcoverage,especiallyinsuburbanandruralareas.

Thesizeandcomplexityofactiveantennasystemscanmakethemimpracticalforcertainenvironments,suchasin-buildingwireless