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InflationandLaborMarkets:
ABottom-UpView
SophiaChen,DenizIgan,DoLee,PrachiMishra
WP/24/220
IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchin
progressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.
TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersare
thoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarily
representtheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.
2024
OCT
©2024InternationalMonetaryFundWP/24/220
IMFWorkingPaper
ResearchDepartment
InflationandLaborMarkets:ABottom-UpView
PreparedbySophiaChen,DenizIgan,DoLee,andPrachiMishra*
AuthorizedfordistributionbyMariaSoledadMartinezPeriaOctober2024
IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicit
commentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseofthe
author(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.
ABSTRACT:U.S.inflationsurgedin2021-22andhassincedeclined,drivenlargelybyasharpdropingoodsinflation,thoughservicesinflationremainselevated.Thispaperzoomsintoservicesinflation,usingproprietarymicrodataonwagestoexamineitsrelationshipwithservicesectorwagegrowthattheMetropolitanStatisticalArea(MSA)level.Weestimatethewage-pricepass-throughwithalocalprojectioninstrumentalvariablemodelthatexploitsvariationinlabormarkettightnessacrossMSAs.Ourfindingsrevealapositiveandsignificant
relationshipbetweenwagesandpricegrowth,withalag.Thissuggeststhattheeffectsoftightlabormarketsarepersistentandmayinfluencethepaceofprogressiontowardtheinflationtarget.
RECOMMENDEDCITATION:SophiaChen,DenizIgan,DoLee,andPrachiMishra.2024.“InflationandLaborMarkets:ABottom-UpView”.IMFWorkingPaperNo.2024/220.
JELClassificationNumbers:
E24,E31
Keywords:
Inflation;Wages;LaborMarketConditions
Author’sE-MailAddress:
ychen2@,deniz.igan@,dql204@,prachi.mishra@.in
*TheauthorsaregratefultoPhilipBarrett,NigelChalk,EraDabla-Norris,DavideFurceri,GitaGopinath,PierreOlivierGourinchas,DanielLeigh,BoLi,SoleMartinezPeria,PapaN'Diaye,andRodrigoValdezforvaluablediscussionsandinsightfulcommentsandsuggestions.
WORKINGPAPERS
InflationandLaborMarkets:
ABottom-UpView
PreparedbySophiaChen,DenizIgan,DoLee,andPrachiMishra1
1TheauthorsaregratefultoPhilipBarrett,NigelChalk,EraDabla-Norris,DavideFurceri,GitaGopinath,PierreOlivierGourinchas,DanielLeigh,BoLi,SoleMartinezPeria,PapaN'Diaye,andRodrigoValdezforvaluablediscussionsandinsightfulcommentsandsuggestions.
2
1Introduction
U.S.inflationrosesharplyin2021-22,withyear-on-yearCPIinflationpeakingat9.0percentinJune2022(Figure1).ByAugust2024,the12-monthinflationratehaddroppedto2.5percent,withindicationsitmaycontinuefallinginthecomingmonths.Boththeriseanddeclinehavebeenequallydramatic.
Asdramaticasthemovementsinheadlineinflationhavebeen,thedivergencebetweenpricetrendsingoodsandserviceshasbeenequallystriking.Theinitialinflationsurgein2021wasdrivenbyaspikeingoodsprices(Figure2),resultingfromsupply-sidedisruptionsinglobalsupplychainsandenergyprices,alongwithapandemic-inducedshiftindemandfromservicestogoods.Servicesinflationbeganrisinglaterintheyearaslockdownseasedanddemandshiftedbackfromgoodstoservices.Whilegoodsinflationpeakedinearly2022anditssharpdeclinehaslargelydriventhefallinoverallinflation,servicesinflationpeakedonlyinearly2023andremainselevated.Thus,understandingthedriversofservicesinflationiscrucialtodecodingthepersistenceofinflation.
Inadditiontothedynamicsofgoodsandservicesinflation,thelabormarkethasbeencentraltotheinflationdebate.Forinstance,BernankeandBlanchard(2024b)arguethat,contrarytoinitialconcernsthatinflationwouldbedrivenbyoverlytightlabormarketsattheonsetofthepandemic,thesurgeininflationbeginningin2021waslargelyduetopriceshocks—suchassharpincreasesincommoditypricesandspecificgoodsshortages—ratherthanwagepressures.Incontrast,Balletal.(2022)attributeasignificantportionoftheinflationrisetolabormarketslack.Notably,thelabormarketremainstight,withthevacancy-to-unemploymentratio(V/U)at1.1inJuly2024(witha12-monthaverageof1.3),comparedto“normaltimes,”whentheV/Uwaswellbelowone.Althoughthelabormarket’scontributiontoheadlineCPIinflationhasdiminishedfromitspeak,itremainsthelargestestimatedcontributortoinflationabovetarget,whichcouldhavenegativeim-plicationsfortheoutlookonheadlineinflation.1
ThispapercontributestotheliteraturebyofferingoneofthefirstU.S.microdata-basedestimatesontheimpactofservicesectorwagegrowthonservicesinflationthroughthelocallabormarkettightnesschannel.WeutilizeproprietarymicrodatafromHomebase,apayrollserviceproviderforsmallbusinessesintheservicessector,whichcoversdetailedinformationonhoursandwagesfornearly9millionworkersacross1millionU.S.firms.ThesedataarecomplementedwithpricedatafromtheBureauofLaborStatistics(BLS).
Weestimatethewage-pricepass-throughattheMetropolitanStatisticalArea(MSA)level,exploringthelocallabormarkettightnesschannelusingalocalprojectioninstru-mentalvariable(LP-IV)approach.OurmethodologydrawsonkeyinsightsfromrecentliteratureontheregionalPhillipscurve.Byusingregionaldata,weavoidthechallengeofshiftinglong-runinflationexpectations,whichcandistortestimatesofthePhillipscurveslope.Italsoallowsustodifferentiatebetweendemandandsupplyshocks,sincecentralbankscannotcounterregionaldemandshockswithasinglenationalmonetarypolicyinstru-ment.2Toexploitvariationinregionaldemandshocks,weinstrumentwagegrowthwithashift-shareinstrumentbasedonlocallabormarkettightness.Similartothetradable-
1ThisisbasedonthedecompositionBalletal.(2022),extendedtothemostrecentperiod.
2SeeHazelletal.(2022)forareviewoftheliteratureandtheoreticalfoundationsoftheregionalPhillipscurve.
3
demandinstrumentusedinHazelletal.(2022),thisinstrumentcapturestheideathatnationalvariationinthedemandforspecifictradablegoodswillhavevaryingeffectsonthelocaldemandfornon-tradablesectors,dependingonthelocalexposuretotheimpactedtradablesectors.
Weusethevacancy-to-unemploymentratioasourmeasureoflabormarkettightness,followingBalletal.(2022)andBlanchardetal.(2022).Beforethepandemic,theun-employmentratewasthemostcommonmeasureoflabormarkettightness,valuedforitssimplicityandavailability.However,severalresearchersspecializingininflationdynam-ics,includingFurmanandWilson(2021),BarnichonandShapiro(2022),andDomashandSummers(2022),havearguedthatthevacancy-to-unemploymentratiobetterreflectsla-bormarkettightnessinthepost-pandemiceconomy,wherelaborforceparticipationhasfluctuatedsignificantly.
Anfirstlookatthedatarevealsaninterestingpatternbetweenservicesinflationandservicesectorwagegrowthattheaggregatelevel(Figure3).Sincemid-2021,thesetwoserieshaveshownastrongcorrelationwithalag,closelyaligningwiththetimingoftheriseinheadlineinflation.3
Ourresultsindicateanimportantroleoflocallabormarkettightnessindrivingservicesinflationthroughservicesectorwagegrowth.Thefirststageshowsastrongpass-throughfromlocallabormarkettightnesstowagegrowth.Specifically,aone-log-pointincreaseinthelogvacancy-to-unemploymentratiocorrespondstoapeakeffectofa27percent-agepointincreaseinyear-on-yearservicewagegrowthovera10-monthhorizon.Thesecondstageindicatesthataone-percentage-pointincreaseinservicesectorwagegrowthcorrespondstoa0.32-percentage-pointincreaseinyear-on-yearservicesinflation(exclud-inghousing).Combined,theseresultssuggestthataone-log-pointincreaseinthelogvacancy-to-unemploymentratioisassociatedwithan8.8-percentage-pointincreaseinser-vicesinflation(excludinghousing)overa10-monthhorizon.Moreover,theestimatedeffectsarenon-linear,withahigherwage-pricepass-through,whenlabormarketsaretighter,ortheinitialvacancy-to-unemploymentratioishigher.Thesefindingsarerobusttoalter-nativespecificationsandarebroadlyconsistentwithevidencefrommoreaggregatedandlower-frequencydata.
Theseresultscarryimportanteconomicimplications.TheestimatesindicatethatlocallabormarkettightnesswasakeydriverofinflationbetweenQ32022andQ12023,account-ingforanaverageof68.7percentofservicesinflation(excludinghousing)acrossMSAsduringthisperiod.Ourfindingsalsoreinforcepriorevidencefromaggregatedata,showingthatthepricePhillipscurve—ortherelationshipbetweenwagesandlabormarketslack—issteeperundertighterlabormarketconditions.
Thesefindingshaveimportantimplicationsfortheongoingpolicydebate.Evenbeforethepost-pandemicinflationsurge,servicesinflationwastraditionallythemaindriverofoverallinflationintheUnitedStates.Servicespricegrowthtendstobemorepersistentthancoregoodsprices,largelyduetothehigherlaborintensityofservices,makingthemmore
sensitivetowagegrowth.Wagegrowth,inturn,isoneofthemostpersistentinputcosts,
3Thespikesinthewagegrowthseriesinearly2020andearly2021areconsistentwithaggregatedatafromtheCurrentEmploymentStatistics(CES)(Stewart,2022).Theyreflectchangesinthecompositionoftheworkforce.In2020,low-paidworkerswerelaidoff,pushingtheaveragehourlywageartificiallyhigh.In2021,astheeconomyreopened,employersfilledmanyofthesepositionsagain.
4
reflectingthefrequencyofcontractresetsandotherlabormarketdynamics.Thepandemic’sdisproportionateimpactontheservicessector,particularlythedifficultyinrehiringworkerslaidoffduringlockdowns,hascontributedtooveralllabormarkettightness.Thishighlightsthecriticalroleofwagetrendsinservicesandtheirimpactonprices.Whilewagegrowthacceleratedsharplyafterthepandemic’sacutephaseandhasrecentlymoderated,ongoingwagepressuresarelikelyaspurchasingpowerhasyettoreturntopre-pandemiclevels.
Overall,ourresultssuggestthatapersistentlytightlabormarketwillexertpersistentpressureoninflation.Theeffectofthepass-throughfromwagestoservicepricestakesalmostafullyeartopeak.Thispressuremaycomplicatetheinflationoutlook,especiallyinanenvironmentpronetosupply-sideshocksduetogeopoliticaltensions.
Therestofthepaperisorganizedasfollows.Section2reviewstherapidly-expandingrelatedliterature.Section3providesanoverviewofthedataandmeasurements.Section4laysouttheempiricalstrategy.Section5presentsthefindings.Section6concludes.
2Relatedliterature
Ourpaperisrelatedtothegrowingliteraturethatseekstoexplaininflationdynamicsinthepost-pandemicperiod.Thisbodyofworkhasemphasizedtheimportanceofshockstoimportpricesandsupplychains,withanaturalfocusonthegoodssectorduetoitshighertradeability.Forinstance,Amitietal.(2022)showthatchangesinimportcompe-tition,alongwithareducedabilitytosubstitutebetweenlaborandintermediateinputs,contributedtotherecentsurgeininflation.Similarly,LaBelleandSantacreu(2022)high-lightthesignificantimpactofglobalsupplychaindisruptionsontheU.S.ProducerPriceIndex(PPI).
Aseparatestrandofliteraturehighlightstheimpactoftightdomesticlabormarketsonpricepressures.Balletal.(2022)findthatthehighvacancy-to-unemploymentratiosobservedin2021-2022canexplainasignificantportionoftheriseinmonthlycoreinflation.Theynotethat“thecontributionofV/Utotherisein12-monthinflationis2.0percentagepoints,nearlyathirdofthetotalinflationincrease.However,theriseinV/Uexplainsmore—nearlyone-half—oftheriseincoreinflationand,theeffectofV/Uisrisingovertime.”
Similarly,BenignoandEggertsson(2023)showthattheslopeofthePhillipscurvesteepenswhenthevacancy-to-unemploymentratioishigh.Theyconcludethatthere-centinflationsurgewasprimarilydrivenbyalaborshortage.Daoetal.(2024)findthattightlabormarketscontinuetocontributesignificantlytoinflationintheU.S.,makingitanexceptionamongalargesampleofadvancedandemergingmarketeconomies,whereinflationarypressurefromrelativepriceshockshassubsided,resultinginlowerinflation.BernankeandBlanchard(2024a)findanevenlargerquantitativeroleforV/UinexplainingpricepressuresintheUScomparedtoDaoetal.(2024).AccordingtoDaoetal.(2024),thisdifferencestemsfromtheirinclusionofV/Uintheirequationforcoreinflation,whiletheapproachofBernankeandBlanchard(2024a)focusessolelyontherelationshipbetweenV/Uandwageinflation.
Unliketheaforementionedpaperswhichusethevacancy-to-unemploymentratio,Crumpetal.(2022)relyontheunemploymentrateastheirmeasureoflabormarkettightnessandcomplementitwithmultiplemeasuresoflaborcompensation.Theyprojectunderlying
5
inflationtoremainhighduetotightlabormarketsandstrongwagegrowth.4Consistentwiththesepapers,wefindastrongroleofthelabormarketindrivingrecentinflation.Akeydifferencebetweenourapproachandtheseexistingstudiesisthattheyexaminetime-seriesvariationinaggregateinflation,whileweexplorecross-sectionalvariationacrossgeographicalareas.WeprovideadetailedcomparisonoftheestimatesinSection5.
OurpaperisalsorelatedtostudiesthatestimatethePhillipscurveusingcross-sectionaldata(e.g.,Berajaetal.,2019;McLeayandTenreyro,2019;Hooperetal.,2020).Hazelletal.(2022)showthatusingregionaldatahelpsovercometheissueofshiftinglong-runinflationexpectations,whichcanconfoundtheeffectoflabormarketslack.Italsoallowsforacleardistinctionbetweendemandandsupplyshocks.TheyshowthattheslopeoftheregionalPhillipscurveissteeperthanthatofanaggregatePhillipscurvewhenlabormarketconditionsarepersistent.Mostestimationsinthisliteraturefocusonthepre-pandemicperiod.Forexample,Hazelletal.(2022)estimatetheslopeoftheregionalPhillipscurveusingdataacrossU.S.statesspanning1978-2018.AnexceptionisBarnichonandShapiro(2022),whoevaluatetheperformanceofvariousslackmeasuresinpredictingandexplaininginflationusingMSA-leveldatafrom1982to2022.Theyfindthatthevacancy-to-unemploymentratioandvacancyfillingcostproxiesoutperformotherlabormarketslackmeasures,suchastheunemploymentrate.However,theirfocusisPhillipscurve’spredictiveperformanceanddoesnotexaminethewage-pricepass-throughorestimatethecontributionoflabormarketslacktoinflation.
Thispaper’smaincontributiontotheliteratureistheuseofproprietarymicrodatatoexploretherelationshipbetweenservicesinflationandlabormarkettightness.Thisfocusiscrucial,asservicesinflationremainselevated,keepingheadlineinflationwellabovetheFederalReserve’s2percenttarget.Thecurrentdebatecentersonwhetherinflationhasplateauedatlevelsabove2percent,posingapotentialchallengefortheFed.AsBernankeandBlanchard(2024b)argue,theeffectsofoverheatedlabormarketscanbepersistent,withlabormarketfactorsincreasinglydrivinginflationastheinfluenceofgoodspriceswanes.Laborcostsrepresentalargershareoftotalcostsinservicescomparedtogoods,andstaggeredwagesettingfurtheramplifiestheroleoflabormarketsinsustaininginflation.Byusinghigh-frequencymicrodataandacross-sectionalPhillipscurveframework,wecanbetteridentifythekeydriversofpersistentservicesinflation.
3Dataandmeasurements
OurwagedatacomefromaproprietarydatasetprovidedbyHomebase,asoftwarecompanythatoffersscheduling,payrollreporting,andrelatedservicestobusinesses,primarilyintheretail,hospitality,andotherservicesectors.Thedatasetisbasedontimecardrecords,offeringdetailedinformationonworkhoursandwagesfromover80,000businessesandmorethan1millionemployeesacrosstheUnitedStates.Itincludesgranulardailyemployee-leveldataonhoursworked,wages,jobtypes,andlinkstothecorrespondingestablishmentsandparentfirms.Additionally,establishment-leveldetailsincludelocation(via5-digitzipcodes)andindustryclassification(via6-digitNAICScodes).Oursampleperiodspansfrom
4Underlyinginflationrepresentstheinflationcomponentthatsolelydependsonthelong-runtrendandthesequenceofcurrentandfutureunemploymentgaps.
6
January2019toDecember2022.5WecalculateaveragewagesatthemonthlyfrequencyforeachMSA.
Thisdatasetisnotableforitshigh-frequency,granularcoverageofworkhoursandwageinformation,settingitapartfromotherU.S.labormarketdatasets.6TheHomebasedataset’sextensivecoverageoflow-wageworkersandin-personservicesisespeciallyvaluableforstudyingrecentwagedynamics,asthissegmentexperiencedparticularlystrongpost-pandemicwagegrowth(Autoretal.,2023;ChenandLee,2024).However,thedatasethaslimitations,suchastheexclusionofcertainsectorsandthelackofdataontips,benefits,andovertimepayments.Despitetheselimitations,employmenttrendsintheHomebasesamplecloselycorrelatewithofficialstatisticsfromtheCPSandCES.Additionally,changesinemploymentandearningsalignwellwithCESdataatthemonth-statelevel(DvorkinandIsaacson,2022;ChenandLee,2024).7WediscusstheexternalvalidityoftheHomebasedataindetailinSection5.
Forpricedata,weusetheConsumerPriceIndex(CPI)providedbytheBureauofLaborStatistics(BLS),whichoffersmonthlyorbi-monthlydataattheMSAlevel.ForMSAswithbi-monthlyCPIdata,weinterpolatelinearlytoobtainamonthlyfrequency.Ourprimaryfocusisonservicesexcludinghousing(i.e.,CPIitem’serviceslessrentofshelter’).Weconstructyear-on-yearinflationseriesattheMSA-monthlevel.WeemphasizeservicesinflationbecausenearlyallCPIservicesarenon-tradable(Johnson,2017).8Thisfocusisimportantbecausepricessetatthenationallevel—typicalfortradablegoods—resultinaflatterregionalPhillipscurve.Weexcludehousinginflationfromouranalysisbecauseitsdriverslikelydifferfromthoseaffectingnon-housingservices.Consistentwiththis,theliteraturehasfoundthathousinginflationexhibitsasubstantiallydifferentslopeinthePhillipscurvecomparedtonon-housingservices(Hazelletal.,2022;StockandWatson,2020),andthatremoteworkhasbeenasignificantdriverofpost-pandemichousingprices(Howardetal.,2023).
4Empiricalapproach
WeanalyzethedatausinganLP-IVapproach,asusedinJord`aetal.(2015)andJord`aetal.(2020).Localprojectionsareaflexibleandconvenientmethodforestimatingimpulseresponses(Jord`a,2005),requiringminimalassumptionsaboutthefunctionalformoftheresponses.TheLP-IVapproachestimatestheseimpulseresponsestoshocksusingtwo-stage
5Thesampleonpricesandwagesstartsayearearliertoallowforthecalculationofannualchanges.
6Forinstance,Compustatlacksdataonprivatefirms,theCensuslacksdetailedwageinformation,andboththeCurrentPopulationSurvey(CPS)andCurrentEmploymentStatistics(CES)lacksufficientgeo-graphicvariationforcross-sectionalanalyses.TheQuarterlyCensusofEmploymentandWages(QCEW)providestabulateddatabygeographicareaandindustrybutdoesnotoffermicrodata.
7TheCPS,co-sponsoredbytheCensusBureauandtheBLS,surveysabout60,000U.S.householdsandservesastheprimarysourceforofficialunemploymentstatistics.TheCES,sponsoredbytheBLS,surveysapproximately145,000U.S.businessesandgovernmentagenciesandprovidesofficialemploymentandwagestatistics.
8AccordingtoJohnson(2017),theonlythreeCPIitemcodesforservicesclassifiedastradableareRA04(Videocassettes,discs,andothermedia,includingrentals),TF09(unsampledmotorvehiclefees),andTG01(airlinefare).Hazelletal.(2022)constructanon-tradableinflationseriesusingBLSmicrodata,definingnon-tradablessimilarlytotheBLSserviceaggregationbutwithtwoexceptions:theyclassifyFoodAwayfromHomeasnon-tradableandexcludesometransportationitems(e.g.,airlinefare).
7
leastsquares.Specifically,weestimate:
KK
+βhwi,t+wi,t−k+yi,t−k+γhXi,s,t+u
wherei,s,andtdenoteMSA,state,andmonth,respectively.h=1,....,Hdenotes
theestimationhorizon.WecontrolforlagsuptoK=3.αisatimefixedeffect.
ηisanMSAfixedeffect.Weclusterthestandarderrorsu,tattheMSAlevel.Our
inflationmeasure,yi,t,isyear-on-yearservicesinflation(excludinghousing)inMSAiinmonthtcalculatedasthelogarithmicdifferenceinthepricesforservicesexcludinghousing,
ln(prices)i,t−ln(prices)i,t−12.Hence,thedependentvariableyt−y,tcapturesthechange
ininflationoverahorizonofhmonthsfromtimettotimet+h.wi,tisourindependentvariableofinterest.Itisyear-on-yearwagegrowthintheservicessectorfromHomebasecalculatedasthelogarithmicdifference,ln(wage)i,t−ln(wage)i,t−12.
WeincludeavectorofcontrolsXi,s,tatthestate-yearlevel.Thisincludeslaborproduc-tivity(fromBLS)asaproxyforlocallabordemand,headlineinflationshocksdefinedasthedifferencebetweenyear-on-yearheadlineinflationandcoreinflationexcludingfoodandenergy,andresidualsfromregressionsofprevioushorizons(i.e.,from1toh−1).AccordingtoTeulingsandZubanov(2014),theseresidualsaccountforinformationbetweentimetandt+hthatarenotfullycontrolledbytheotherindependentvariables(whichareasoftimet).
Thecoefficientβhcapturestheimpulseresponseofinflationonwagegrowthoverthehorizonh.Werefertothiscoefficientasthewage-pricepass-through.Thecausalinter-pretationofthiscoefficientrestsonseveralgrounds.Empirically,wagesaretypicallylessflexiblethanprices,makingitunlikelythattheywillquicklyadjusttochangesininflation.Thisisalsoevidentinoursampleperiod.AsFigure3shows,theriseinwagesprecedestheriseininflation.9
Moreover,weinstrumentwagegrowthwithaBartikshocktolocallabormarketcondi-tions,followingBartik(1991).10Thisallowsustoisolatetheinflationarycomponentofwagegrowththatresultsfromlabormarketcompetition.Toachievethis,weconstructaBartikshockbasedonlocallabormarketconditions.Wemeasurelabormarketconditionsusingthevacancy-to-unemploymentratio(i.e.,thenumberofvacanciesdividedbythenumberofunemployedworkers),followingrecentstudies(e.g.,Balletal.,2022;Blanchardetal.,2022;BenignoandEggertsson,2023).Thisapproachispreferabletousingthetraditionalunemploymentgapmeasure,giventheupwardshiftintheBeveridgecurvepost-pandemic.TheBeveridgecurve,whichshowsthenumberofvacanciesperunemployedworker,hasshiftedupward,suggestingasimilarshiftinthetraditionalunemployment-basedPhillipscurve,whichimplieshigherinflationatanygivenunemploymentrate.Therefore,usingthevacancy-to-unemploymentratiobettercapturesthisdynamic.
Formally,theBartikshockinMSAcinmonthtisdefinedastheprojectedlogvacancy-to-unemploymentratio:
\\
Shocki,t=ln(V)i,t−ln(U)i,t,(2)
9Thelaggedresponseofinflationtowagegrowthisacommonidentificationassumptioninstructuralvectorautoregression(SVAR)estimations.See,forexample,BernankeandBlanchard(2024b).
10SeeSohetal.(2022)andChenandLee,2024forapplicationsofthismethodinthecontextofthepandemic.
8
\
whereln(V)i,tiscalculatedas
ln(Vk,t)isthelognumberofvacanciesfor3-digitNAICSindustrykintimet.Weincludeallindustriesexcludingpublicadministration.ϕc,k,2015−2016istheaverageemploymentshareofindustrykinMSAiin2015-2016.Wedefineln(Uk,t)similarly.
Weuseindustry-leveldataonunemploymentfromtheCPSandvacancydatafromaproprietarydatasetprovidedbyIndeed.Indeedisaglobalsearchengineforjoblistingsthatcollectsjobpostingsfromvarioussources,includingjoblistingsites,employercareersites,andapplicanttrackingsystems.Duplicatedlistingsareremoved,soeachjobisshownonlyonce,evenifitappearsonmultipleplatforms.Ourfinaldatasetincludes142millionjobpostings,covering421occupationsbasedonISCO-08classificationsacross2.9millioncompaniesand576countiesintheUS.
TheadvantageofusingIndeed,asopposedtotheJobOpeningsandLaborTurnoverSur-vey(JOLTS)fromtheBLS,isitsmoregranularindustryclassifications,whichenableustocaptureshocksatthe3-digitNAICSlevel.AlimitationoftheIndeeddatasetisthatitmaynotcapturealljobvacancies,assomearenotpostedonline.Toaddressthis,werescalethevacanciesfromIndeedintonationallyrepresentativeunits,andwedescribethisadjustmentprocedureinAppendixA.3.Additionally,Indeedallowsustocomputethevacancy-to-unemploymentratioattheMSA-monthlevel—ameasurenotavailablefromJOLTS.Weusethismeasuretoclassifylocallabormarketswithlaborshortageswheninvestigatingthenon-linearityofprice-wagepass-throughbasedonlocallabormarketconditions.
TheidentifyingassumptionunderlyingourBartikshock,asBorusyaketal.(2022)show,isthattheindustrydemandshocks,ln(Vk,t)andln(Uk,t),arequasi-randomlyassigned.Thismeansthattheshocksareuncorrelatedwithrelevantunobservablesinexpectationandthatashock-levellawoflargenumbersapplies,thatis,theinstrumentincorporatesmanysufficient
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