全球经济展望-2016年第四季

GlobalEconomicOutlook4thQuarter2021Global

Economic

OutlookIntroduction | 2ByIraKalishIntheQ4issueoftheGlobalEconomicOutlook,ourfar-flungeconomistsoffertheirviewsontheUnitedStates,Eurozone,China,Japan,India,Rus-sia,Brazil,Canada,andhelicoptermoney.UnitedStates:Growthremainsmuted,butfinallygoodnewsonfamilyincome | 6ByPatriciaBuckleyGrowthinthefirsthalfof2021wasslow,althoughpreliminarydataarepointingtoastrongersecondhalf.Continuedjobgrowthandincreasingfamilyincomesbodewellforfuturedemand.Eurozone:DealingwithBrexit | 12ByAlexanderBörschThedirecteconomiceffectsofBrexithavesofarbeenrelativelymuted,thankstocentralbanks’decisions.Butthisdoesnotimplytherewillbenoseriouslong-termconsequences,asrisksstemmingfromapotentialdisruptionoftraderelationshavenotdisappeared.China:Debatingdebtandinvestment | 18ByIraKalishNewstudiesdebatewhetherChina’sdebtlevelisexcessiveanddangerous,andwhetherthemassiveinvestmentininfrastructuredidactuallycreateeconomicvalue.Meanwhile,newdatafromtheChi-nesegovernmentindicatethattheeconomyappearstobestabilizing.Japan:

Two

arrows

too

many | 22ByAkrur

BaruaTheBankofJapanseemstohaverunoutofmovestostrengthentheeconomythroughmonetarypol-icy.Quantitativeeasingandnegativeinterestrateshavehadlittleeffect.Nowthebankistargetingthelongendoftheyieldcurvebykeeping10-yearbondyieldsclosetozero.India:

Finding

new

feet

through

reforms | 30ByRumki

MajumdarWhilesluggishinvestment,miningandconstruc-tionactivities,andfarmoutputinQ1raisedconcernsabouttheIndianeconomy,recentreforms,suchasthebankruptcycodeandthegoodsandservicestax,areexpectedtoimprovebusinesssenti-mentsandeaseofdoingbusiness.Russia:

Too

early

for

optimism | 38ByLester

GunnionSignsindicatethatRussia’srecessionmightbecomingtoanend.Butdespitesomegoodnews,severalconcernsremain:Foreigninvestmentisdowntoatrickle,internationalsanctionscontinuetoweighontheenergysector,andrealincomesarestillindecline.Brazil:

Finally,

that

elusive

rate

cut | 46ByAkrur

BaruaBrazil’scentralbankcutitskeypolicyrateforthefirsttimeinfouryearsinOctober.Aftertherecenttumultintheeconomy,adeclineininterestratesshouldbeawelcomebreakforconsumersandbusi-nesses.Butanyfurthercutsdependoninflation,whichisstillhigherthanthebank’stargetrange.Global

Economic

OutlookCONTENTSII4thQuarter2021Canada:WaitingfortheEuropeanUnion | 54ByDanielBachmanIn2021,CanadaandtheEuropeanUnionsignedanambitioustradeagreement,CETA.Twoyearson,thetreatyhasyettocomeintoeffect.What’scaus-ingthehold-up?Specialtopic:Helicoptermoney | 60ByAkrurBaruaHelicoptermoneyjoinsotherunorthodoxpolicies,suchasnegativeinterestrates,beingfloatedtoencourageeconomicgrowth.Intheory,helicoptermoneycouldprovideabetteralternativetoquanti-tativeeasing.Economicindices | 70Additionalresources | 73Abouttheauthors | 74Contactinformation | 75Illustrations

by

Stephanie

Dalton

CowanCONTENTSIIIGlobal

Economic

OutlookIntroductionBy

Ira

KalishTHE

global

economy

has

lately

been

character-ized

by

relatively

slow

growth,

weak

businessinvestment,

persistent

deflationary

pressures,andslowgrowthofcross-bordertradeingoodsandservices.

These

issues

have

led

to

concerns

that

thecurrent

policy

mix

in

major

economies

is

not

up

tothe

task

of

fueling

faster

growth.

Indeed,

in

the

ma-jor

developed

economies,

monetary

policy

seemsto

be

the

only

game

in

town,

with

few

countries

fo-cused

on

fiscal

or

structural

actions.

In

this

issue

ofDeloitte’s

quarterly

Global

Economic

Outlook,

ourfar-flung

economists

offer

views

on

each

of

the

ma-jor

economies

in

the

world.

A

common

theme

ap-pears

to

be

either

inadequacy

of

policy

actions

oruncertaintyaboutwhatpolicymakerswilldo.We

begin

with

our

article

on

the

US

economy,

inwhich

Patricia

Buckley

says

that

growth

is

likely

tobe

better

in

the

second

half

than

in

the

first.

Shenotes

that

the

sharp

decline

in

inventories

sets

thestage

for

a

revival

of

growth.

In

addition,

she

pointsto

the

continued

strength

of

the

labor

market

as

fu-eling

consumer

spending.

Plus,

an

unusually

largeincrease

in

real

household

income

not

only

bodeswell

for

spending

but

also

helps

to

reverse

the

risein

income

inequality.

Patricia

concludes

that

the

USeconomy

remains

strong

and

that

the

major

risks

tothe

economy

come

from

external

events

as

well

astheupcomingpresidentialelection.Alexander

Börsch

offers

our

next

article

on

the

Eu-rozone.

He

focuses

mainly

on

the

potential

impactof

the

UK

Brexit

referendum

on

the

other

Europeaneconomies.

He

notes

that

the

initial

fears

about

fi-nancial

market

disruption

have

been

allayed

by

aquick

response

from

the

European

Central

Bank.

Healso

discusses

the

mainly

incompatible

negotiatingpositions

of

the

United

Kingdom

and

the

EuropeanUnion,

rendering

likely

a

period

of

uncertainty.

Heconcludes

that

the

negotiations

will

probably

domi-nate

the

agenda

of

EU

leaders

in

the

next

few

years.A

close

economic

relationship

between

the

two

isseen

as

optimal,

but

differences

over

immigrationpolicycouldunderminesuchrelations.In

my

article

on

China,

I

discuss

the

continuing

de-bate

over

the

dangers

of

debt

in

the

Chinese

econ-omy.

I

point

to

a

study

from

the

Bank

for

Interna-tional

Settlements

that

suggests

that

China’s

debtrelative

to

GDP

is

unusually

and

dangerously

high.Despite

this,

I

point

to

data

showing

that

credit

cre-ation

in

China

is

accelerating,

particularly

in

thehousehold

sector.

While

this

has

been

intentionalon

the

part

of

policy

makers

who

are

keen

to

avoida

deeper

economic

slowdown,

it

exacerbates

longer-term

problems.

Meanwhile,

I

point

to

recent

datasuggesting

that

the

Chinese

economy

may

be

stabi-lizingafteraperiodofdeceleration.In

his

article

on

Japan’s

economy,

Akrur

Baruasays

that

an

unusually

aggressive

monetary

policy,involving

massive

asset

purchases

and

negativepolicy

interest

rates,

has

failed

to

achieve

its

goals.Although

the

Bank

of

Japan

has

recently

signaledan

intention

to

ease

policy

even

further,

Akrur

sug-gests

that

monetary

policy

may

have

gone

as

far

as

itcan.

Rather,

he

suggests

that

the

government

mightbenefit

from

implementing

the

third

arrow

of

Aben-24thQuarter2021omics:

structural

reform.

However,

the

governmenthas,

instead,

focused

on

a

modest

boost

to

the

sec-ond

arrow,

fiscal

stimulus,

and

Akrur

does

not

ex-pectthistobeespeciallyeffective.India

is

the

focus

of

our

next

article,

written

byRumki

Majumdar.

She

says

that

although

the

Indi-an

economy

faces

some

headwinds,

new

legislationinvolving

tax

and

bankruptcy

reforms

could

set

thestage

for

an

acceleration

of

growth.

Moreover,

thesereforms

are

likely

to

embolden

the

government

inattempting

to

enact

labor

market

reforms.

Such

ac-tion

would

ease

the

cost

of

doing

business,

promotemore

employment,

and

stimulate

more

inboundforeign

investment.

As

for

the

latter,

the

govern-ment

is

also

attempting

to

ease

restrictions

on

suchinvestment.In

our

next

article,

Lester

Gunnion

examines

theRussian

economy.

He

says

that

there

are

signs

thatthe

period

of

declining

activity

may

be

coming

to

anend,

and

that

the

Russian

economy

might

have

hitbottom.

He

points

to

a

stable

currency,

slowing

in-flation,

an

easing

of

monetary

policy,

and

a

revivalin

oil

production.

Yet

he

also

raises

concerns

that

anumber

of

headwinds

will

prevent

a

robust

recovery.These

include

continued

Western

sanctions,

whichare

having

a

chilling

effect

on

inbound

investmentin

the

energy

sector.

Moreover,

weak

foreign

in-vestment

will

inhibit

the

diversification

of

Russia’seconomy

that

is

so

badly

needed.

In

addition,

Lesternotes

continuing

weakness

of

income

growth

andconsumerspending.Global

Economic

OutlookPublished

quarterly

by

Deloitte

ResearchEditor-in-chiefDr.

Ira

KalishManaging

editorAditiRaoContributorsAkrur

BaruaDr.

Alexander

Börsch

Dr.

Patricia

BuckleyDr.

Daniel

BachmanLester

GunnionDr.

Rumki

MajumdarEditorial

address350

South

Grand

Street

Los

Angeles,

CA

90013

Tel:

+1

213

688

4765INTRODUCTION3Global

Economic

OutlookBrazilisthefocusofAkrurBarua’snextarticle.Thecountry

that

hosted

the

recent

Olympic

Games

con-tinues

to

suffer

from

one

of

its

worst

downturns

inmodern

times.

With

inflation

remaining

high

andfiscal

mismanagement

over

the

past

year,

the

cen-tral

bank

has

been

compelled

to

keep

monetary

pol-icy

tight,

thereby

inhibiting

an

economic

recovery.Yet,

with

the

currency

having

risen,

there

is

reasonto

expect

a

deceleration

of

inflation.

Indeed,

infla-tion

has

been

slowing

this

year,

prompting

the

cen-tral

bank

to

cut

its

policy

rate

for

the

first

time

infour

years

in

October.

A

tighter

fiscal

policy

couldgive

the

central

bankthe

wiggle

roomto

ease

policyfurther.

Thus

the

basis

for

a

rebound

appears

to

bedeveloping.In

his

article

on

Canada,

Daniel

Bachman

bemoansthe

continued

weakness

of

the

economy.

He

saysthat

despite

a

weak

currency,

non-oil

exports

havefailed

to

revive

sufficiently

to

drive

growth.

More-over,

the

central

bank

is

not

yet

comfortable

witheasing

monetary

policy,

given

continued

relativelyhigh

inflation.

On

the

other

hand,

the

potential

fis-cal

stimulus

planned

by

the

government

could

helpto

boost

growth

going

forward.

Beyond

the

short-term

economic

outlook,

Danny

also

devotes

con-siderable

attention

to

the

planned

free-trade

agree-ment

between

Canada

and

the

European

Union.

Hediscusses

what

is

holding

up

the

agreement

despiteits

recent

completion,

the

impact

of

Brexit

on

EUthinking,

as

well

as

the

potential

impact

of

the

Ca-nadian

deal

on

a

similar

planned

EU

deal

with

theUnitedStates.Forourlastarticle,AkrurBarualooksattheoddlynamedissueof“helicoptermoney.〞Thisistheideathatacentralbankcancircumventthebankingsys-temandsimplydropmoneyfromthesky—ortobemoreprecise,itcanfundgovernmentspendingbyjustboostingthemoneysupply.Theideaisthat,whenthefinancialsystemisnotfunctioningprop-erly,thismightbeausefulalternativetotraditionalpolicy.HelicoptermoneywasfirstsuggestedbyMiltonFriedmanandlaterdiscussedbyformerFedchairmanBenBernanke,whocametobeknownas“helicopterBen.〞Inhisarticle,Akrurdiscusseswhathelicoptermoneyentails,howitisdifferentfromquantitativeeasing,andwhyitmayormaynotbeeffectiveindealingwithtoday’schallenges.AkrurconcludesthatthemajorcountrymostlikelytotrythispolicyisJapan.Dr.Ira

KalishChief

global

economist

ofDeloitte

Touche

Tohmatsu

Limited4Global

Economic

OutlookUNITED

STATESGrowth

remains

muted,

but

finally

good

newson

family

incomeBy

Patricia

BuckleyALTHOUGH

GDP

growth

of

the

last

threequarters

posted

very

similar

rates

of

around1.0

percent

(at

seasonally

adjusted

annualrates),inseveralwaysQ22021wasstrongerthaneitherQ42021orQ12021.1Asshowninfigure1,thedecreaseinprivateinventoryinvestmentsubtractedasubstantial1.3percentagepointsfromgrowthinQ22021.Sincethecontributionfrominventoryin-vestmentgenerallynetsouttozeroovertime,thissubtractionofnegativecontributions,thelargestinanunusuallylongstringoffivequarters,isduetoreversesoon.Furthermore,inQ2,consumerspend-inggrewsufficientlytocontribute2.9percentagepointstoGDPgrowth,asignificantlylargercontri-butionthaninpriorquarters.Additionally,duringthemostrecentquarter,thecontractioninbusinessinvestmentwasconsiderablylessthaninrecenthis-tory,andexportsgrewslightlyaftercontractionsinthethreepriorperiods.The

US

consumer’s

ability

to

continue

to

supportgrowth

reflects

the

continued

strengthening

of

thelabor

market

and,

for

the

first

time

since

2007,

ariseinfamilyincome.Animprovinglabormarket—butnotquitehealedAlthoughthepaceofjobcreationhasslowedsome-whatin2021,theimprovementinthelabormarketisevidentacrossmanydimensions,eventhoughmanymeasureshavenotreturnedtopre-recessionreadings.Consider:The

unemployment

rate

has

been

at

5.0

per-cent

or

lower

for

12

months,

essentially

on

parwith

the

average

unemployment

rate

during

thelastexpansion.64thQuarter2021United

StatesGraphic:DeloitteUniversityPress|dupress.deloitteSource:Bureau

of

Economic

Analysis.Q32021:2.0%Q42021:0.9%Q12021:0.8%Q22021:1.4%Figure

1.

Contributions

to

percentage

change

in

GDP3.02.52.01.51.00.50.0-0.5-1.0-1.5BusinessinvestmentResidential

investmentChange

in

private

inventoriesExportsImportsGovernment

spendingPersonal

consumption7Global

Economic

OutlookThe

labor

force

participation

rate

has

stoppedfalling

and

has

remained

stable

since

the

begin-ning

of

the

year.

However,

labor

force

participa-tion

is

about

three

percentage

points

lower

thanpriortotherecession.The

number

of

long-term

unemployed

(thoseunemployed

for

27

weeks

or

longer)

continues

totrend

down,

as

does

the

proportion

of

the

long-term

unemployed.

However,

both

of

these

mea-suresarestillabovetheirpre-recessionlevels.The

median

number

of

weeks

of

unemploymentis

down

to

around

11

weeks,

although

still

higherthan

the

8-week

median

just

before

the

onset

ofthe

recession,

a

significant

reduction

from

the25-weekrecordatthepeakoftherecession.2Another

area

of

improvement

has

been

in

the

moreexpansive

measure

of

unemployment.

The

standarddefinition

of

the

unemployment

rate

considers

onlythose

individuals

who

are

available

for

work

andhave

looked

for

work

in

the

four

weeks

precedingthe

survey.

The

Bureau

of

Labor

Statistics

also

pub-lishes

more

expansive

measures

that

better

captureunderutilization,

for

example,

those

who

want

a

jobbut

have

not

looked

for

a

job

in

the

past

12

months,andthosewhoareworkingparttimebutwouldpre-fer

a

full-time

job.

Figures

2a

and

2b

show

a

com-parison

of

this

more

expansive

measure

with

thestandard

measure

of

employment.

Figure

2a

showsthat

these

two

measures

follow

a

similar

pattern.However,

as

figure

2b

makes

clear,

there

was

a

di-vergence

in

the

magnitude

of

the

percentage-pointdifference

between

these

two

measures

during

therecession—and

that

difference

has

been

slow

to

dis-sipate.Improvementstowell-beingThus,evenwithcontinuedjobgrowthandlowun-employmentbythestandardmeasure,therere-mainsslackintheUSlabormarket.Inlate2021,thegradualimprovementsbegantotranslateintorealincreasesintheaveragehourlywageafterfiveyearsofdeclineorstagnation.However,averagesdonotgiveanyinformationabouthowthesegainsaredistributed—theaveragecanriseeveniftheim-provementisconcentratedamongthehighearners.Interestingly,theUSCensusBureaurecentlypub-lishedits2021estimatesforrealmedianhouseholdincomeandpovertyrates,andthenewswasposi-tiveonbothfronts.3Thus,

even

with

continued

job

growth

andlow

unemployment

by

the

standard

measure,there

remains

slack

in

the

US

labor

market.84thQuarter2021United

StatesGraphic:DeloitteUniversityPress|dupress.deloitteNote:

The

shaded

areas

represent

recessions.Source:Bureau

of

Labor

Statistics.Graphic:DeloitteUniversityPress|dupress.deloitte2000 2002 2004Note:

The

shaded

areas

represent

recessions.Source:Bureau

of

Labor

Statistics.2021 2021 2021Unemployed,marginallyattached,andpart-timeforeconomicreasons2002 2004 2006Standard

unemployment

rate20212021Figure

2a.

Two

measures

of

unemploymentPercentage181614121086420200020212021Figure

2b.

Difference

between

the

two

measures

of

unemployment87654321020062021202120219Global

Economic

OutlookAsshowninfigure3,in2021realmedianhouseholdincomeroseforthefirsttimesince2007,althoughtherealdollarvalueofthatincomeremainsbelowthelevelsofboth2007andthepeakof1999.Theriseinthemedianpointstogainsamonglowerearners.However,inlookingatactualmeasuresofinequal-ity,thedifferencebetween2021and2021wasnotstatisticallysignificant,butevenifincomeinequal-itydidnotlessen,atleastitdidnotgetworse.4TheCensusBureau’sestimateofpovertyratesalsoshowedimprovement.Between2021and2021,thecomposite,or“official,〞povertyratedropped1.2percentagepointsfrom14.8percentto13.5percent.Thenumberofpeopleinpovertyalsodroppedby3.5millionto43.1million.Theimprovementswerebroadbasedacrossdemographicgroups.However,evenwiththeseimprovements,thepovertyrateisstill1.0percentagepointhigherthanin2007.5Wheretogofromhere?Withthesefactsinhand,theFederalOpenMarketCommittee(FOMC)oftheFederalReserveBoarddecidedatitsSeptembermeetingtoleavethetar-getforthefederalfundsrateat0.25–0.50percent.TheFOMCdecidedthatwithinflationstillcontinu-ingbelowits2.0percenttarget,itcouldcontinuetosupportthemaximumemploymentgoalofitstwinstatutorymandatesincetheothergoalofpricestabilityremainedwellinhand.6Telegraphingthecommittee’sfutureintent,theeconomicprojectionsreleasedalongwiththestatementincludedanas-sumptionof0.6percentforthe2021aggregatefed-eralfundsrate.ThisimpliesthattheFOMCisaim-ingforaninterestrateincreaseinthiscalendaryear,mostlikelyinDecember.7However,FOMC’sdeci-sionsaredrivenbydata,andasoftheJunemeeting,theywerestilltargetingtwoincreasesthisyear.Graphic:DeloitteUniversityPress|dupress.deloitteSource:US

Census

Bureau.Note:Thedatafor2021andbeyondreflecttheimplementationoftheredesignedincomequestions,hencethediscontinuity.Figure3.Realmedianhouseholdincome2021USdollars60,00058,00056,00054,00052,00050,00048,00046,00019901995200020212021104thQuarter2021As

noted

at

the

beginning

of

this

chapter,

initialdata

covering

July

and

August

indicate

a

strongerQ3

is

underway.

Personal

consumption,

while

notlooking

as

strong

as

in

Q2,

continues

to

exhibithealthy

growth,

and

early

indicators

for

businessinvestment

and

housing

are

looking

much

stronger.If

these

trends

hold,

a

December

rate

increase

be-comesevenmorecertain.For

now,

the

fundamentals

of

the

US

economy

re-main

strong,

with

therisks

to

thedownsidefocusedlargely

on

external

events—and

the

US

presidentialelection

coming

up

on

November

8.

Since

politicalprognosticationisoutsidethescopeofthisauthor’sexpertise,

I

can

only

comment

on

the

economic

poli-cies

of

the

next

US

president

when

I

know

who

it

willbe.

For

now,

it

is

probably

enough

to

keep

in

mindthat

the

actual

powers

of

the

Executive

Branch

ofthe

US

government

are

fairly

limited;

Congressionalconsent

is

required

for

most

changes,

as

any

currentorformerpresidentwouldattest.For

now,

the

fundamentals

of

the

US

economy

re-

main

strong,

with

the

risks

to

the

downside

fo-cused

largely

on

external

events—and

the

US

presi-

dential

election

coming

up

on

November

8.EndnotesAllstatisticsinthisarticlehavebeensourcedfromtheBureauofLaborStatisticsorBureauofEconomicAnalysisunlessotherwisestated.BureauofLaborStatistics,CurrentPopulationSurvey,downloadedSeptember28,2021.BernadetteD.Proctor,JessicaL.Semega,andMelissaA.Kollar,IncomeandpovertyintheUnitedStates:2021,USCensusBureau,September2021,AmongthemeasuresconsideredweretheGiniindex,sharesofaggregateincomebyquintiles,theTheilindex,themeanlogarithmicdeviationofincome,andtheAtkinsonmeasure.Proctor,Semega,andKollar,IncomeandpovertyintheUnitedStates:2021.BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem,“Pressrelease,〞September21,2021,newsevents/press/monetary/20210921a.htm.FederalReserve,“EconomicprojectionsofFederalReserveBoardmembersandFederalReserveBankpresidentsundertheirindividualassessmentsofprojectedappropriatemonetarypolicy,September2021,〞September21,2021,://United

States11Global

Economic

OutlookEUROZONEDealing

with

BrexitBy

Alexander

BörschFOUR

months

after

the

decision

of

the

UnitedKingdom’s

electorate

to

leave

the

EuropeanUnion,

the

fog

around

what

Brexit

exactlymeans

for

the

Eurozone

and

the

European

Unionhas

not

disappeared.

The

direct

economic

effectshave

been

limited

so

far,

as

financial

markets,helped

by

central

banks’

decisions,

remained

rela-tively

calm.

Politics

has

been

more

affected

thaneconomics,

as

European

leaders

try

to

figure

outhow

they

can

react

and

what

sort

of

strategy

theyshould

adopt

in

the

upcoming

negotiations

with

theUnitedKingdom.While

these

political

decisions

will

have

substantialrepercussions

on

the

European

economy,

especiallyregarding

the

future

form

of

the

European

Unionand

the

future

relationship

with

the

United

King-dom,

it

is

much

too

early

to

argue

that

Brexit

willhave

limited

effects

in

the

long

run

as

well.

Whilethe

shock

to

the

financial

markets

has

not

happened,the

effects

on

the

real

economy

are

likely

to

materi-alizeinalessspectacular,yetverypalpableway.The

immediate

reactions

to

BrexitIt

was

widely

feared

that

the

biggest

immediate

ef-fect

of

Brexit

would

play

out

on

the

financial

mar-kets,

sending

shock

waves

through

the

global

finan-cial

system.

Given

the

problems

in

the

Eurozone’sbanking

system,

this

would

have

affected

the

Euro-zone

in

a

very

big

way.

However,

the

shock

to

thefinancial

markets

failed

to

materialize.

After

a

briefperiod

of

volatilefinancial

markets,

European

stockprices

rebounded,

and

the

Euro

Stoxx

50

reacheditspre-referendumvalueinlateJuly.Politics

has

been

more

affected

than

economics,

as

European

leaders

try

to

figure

out

how

they

can

re-act

and

what

sort

of

strategy

they

should

adopt

in

the

upcoming

negotiations

with

the

United

Kingdom.12Global

Economic

OutlookThe

relative

calm

is

partly

due

to

central

bank

reac-tions

and

liquidity,

which

reassured

investors.

Sec-ond,

the

effects

of

Brexit

are

hard

to

assess

for

finan-cial

market

participants,

as

they

will

be

completelydependent

on

the

future

model

of

EU-UK

economic,trade,

and

investment

relations.

Until

the

nego-tiations

begin

and

the

probabilities

of

which

futuremodel

is

likely

to

emerge

are