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Lesson14WhattheInternetmightLooklikein2020(第十四课2020年的因特网)

Vocabulary(词汇)ImportantSentences(重点句)Multiple-choiceQuestion(多选题)

Problems(问题)

Safe,secureandspeedy:that’stheinternetof2020.Inadecade’stime,thewebwillbeaverydifferentplace.Therewillbenocrime,nomalwareandnofakeonlinebankingsites.Latencywon’tbeaproblem.High-definitionvideowillbesmooth,andbufferingwillbeadistant,nightmarishmemory.

Andthat’snotall.Theinternetwillhavegrowndramatically,makingroomforanewgenerationofconnecteddevices:cars,phones,TVs,everything.Super-fastspeedsaretherule,nottheexception.Toborrowaphrase,itjustworks.

Atleast,that’swhatwehopethewebwillbelike.Tomakeithappen,engineersmerelyneedtorethinkthewaytheinternetworksandchangeprettymucheverything.Whatcouldbesimpler?Somebigchangesarealreadyinprogress.Theexplosionofinternet-enableddevicesmeansthatwe’rerunningoutofIPaddressesevenmorequicklythanexpected:RIPENCC’sManagingDirectorAxelPawliknotedinJanuarythatthepoolofunassignedIPv4addresseswouldrunoutasearlyas2011.ButthemovetoIPv6,whichcanhandlearound“atrilliontrilliontrillion”addresses—3.4×1038ifyou’refeelingpedantic—islargelyasoftware,nothardware,issue.“Inmostcasesit’sveryeasytoreprogramconnectivitysoftwareonachiptoensureadeviceisIPv6compatible,”Pawliksays.

Butthingsaren’tprogressingasstraightforwardlyasyouwouldthink.“Despitethesimplicityofensuringcompatibility,widespreadIPv6take-uphassofarbeenslow,andmanyofthebestknowndigitaldevicesavailabletoday,includingtheiPhone,donotyetsupportthenextgenerationofIPaddressing,”warnsPawlik.Thatlackofurgencyisdisappearingfast,withbignameslikeGoogleimplementingIPv6support,routerfirmsembracingthenewsystemandnewoperatingsystems—includingWindowsandOSX—supportingit.

Ifwe’relateembracingIPv6,theinternetwon’tgrindtoahalt—existingIPaddresseswillkeepworking—butastheEuropeanCommissionreports,“thegrowthandalsothecapacityforinnovationinIP-basednetworkswouldbehindered”.TheEUispushingIPv6hard,anditexpectsEuropeanISPsand“thetop100Europeansites”tobeIPv6-enabledthisyear.

Asahappyby-productofIPv6,widespreadadoptionwillmaketheinternetmoresecuretoo.TheIPsecsecurityprotocolisacompulsorypartofIPv6,whichmeansallIPv6communicationscanbeencryptedandauthenticated.1RouteMasters

We’reusingtheinternetinwaysitscreatorscouldn’tpossiblyhaveimagined,fromtheriseofvideotothesheernumberofconnecteddevices.[1]We’reconstantlypushingtheinternet’scapacity,stabilityandsecurity,andinevitablycracksarebeginningtoshow.

AaronFalkistheChairoftheInternetResearchTaskForce(IRTF)andEngineeringLeadwiththeGlobalEnvironmentforNetworkInnovations(GENI).“Therearemanyareaswherethecurrentarchitectureisstrainingtomeettheneedsoftheusers,”hesays.“Inparticular,theareasofmobility,security,andnetworkmanagementwerenotwelladdressedintheoriginalarchitecture,leadingtoapatchworkofmechanisms.Thegreatestconcernisnotsomuchthattoday’strafficischallengedbutthatthead-hocmachinerybeinginsertedintothenetworkwillinhibitfutureinnovations.Iworryabouttomorrow’sapplicationsmorethantoday’s.”

TheIRTFisatechnologicaltrouble-shooterforinternetarchitecture,asFalkexplains:“TheIRTFhostsresearchgroupsthatworkinareas‘adjacent’totheIETF(InternetEngineeringTaskForce).Thiscanbepre-standardstechnologies,hardproblemsthatemergefromtheIETForoperationscommunities,technologieswheretheinternetmaybeoneofmanypossiblecommunicationsstrategies,orarchitecturalissues.”

Hecontinues:“SometimesresearchgroupsassistIETFworkinggroupsbybringingresearcherexpertiseorotherwise‘pre-baking’technologiessotheyarereadyforstandardisation.Forexample,theMobilityOptimizationsResearchGrouphasbeenworkingonIPmobilitysolutionsthatfeedintotheMIPSHOP(MobilityforIP:Performance,SignallingandHandoffOptimization)workinggroupforstandardisation.AnotherexampleistheIRTFResearchGrouponInternetCongestionControl(ICCRG)whichevaluatesnewcongestioncontrolproposalsthatariseintheIETF.”2IDreamofGENI

Oneoftheproblemswiththecurrentwebisthatit’stoobigandtooimportanttomuckaroundwith.That’swhereGENIcomesin.TheGlobalEnvironmentforNetworkInnovationsisfundedbytheUSNationalScienceFoundation,andit’sbestdescribedasa(serious)playgroundwherenewideascanbetestedout.“GENIwillsupporttwomajortypesofexperiments,”theorganisationsays.“Controlledandrepeatableexperiments,whichwillgreatlyhelpimproveourscientificunderstandingofcomplex,large-
scalenetworks,and‘inthewild’trialsofexperimentalservicesthatrideatoporconnecttotoday’sinternetandthatengagelargenumbersofhumanparticipants.“We’rewellunderwayonthesecondyearofGENIprototyping,GENISpiral2,”Falksays.“Oneofourmoreexcitingactivitiesiswhatwearecalling‘meso-scaledeployments’ofvirtualisable,programmablerouters,switches,andWiMaxbasestationson14campusesandtwonationalresearchbackbonenetworks.Deploymentsliketheseareparticularlyexcitingbecausethey’llallowexperimentalapplicationsandservicesbuiltonGENItodirectlyreachrealusersonuniversitycampuses.Thusresearcherswillhavetheabilitytobuildnewservices—perhapsincompatiblewiththecurrentinternet—andtestthemat-scalewithrealend-users.”Oneareaofconcernisroutingtables,whichthenet’sbackboneroutersusetodirectonlinetraffic.TheBGP(bordergatewayprotocol)routingtablehasgrownhugely,doublinginsizebetween2003and2009,andthereareconcernsthatifthelevelofgrowthcontinues,routerhardwarewon’tbeabletocope.TheIRTF’sRoutingResearchGroup(RRG)isinvestigatingalternatives,anditsgoalistoproducesolidrecommendationsthattheIETFcanimplement.AnotherrelatedprogramisRochesterInstituteofTechnology’sFloatingCloudinitiative,whichhopestoaddresstheproblemofroutingtablegrowthbymovingtheroutingtablesfrominsiderouterstonetworkclouds.InitialtestingtookplaceonadozenLinuxboxes,andthenextstepistotryitonGENI.

GENIisn’ttheonlyinitiativethattheNSFishelpingtofund.ItsFutureInternetArchitectures(FIA)programisoffering$30milliontofundprojectsthatwilltransformthenet.AstheNSFputsit:“Proposalsshouldnotfocusonmakingtheexistinginternetbetterthroughincrementalchanges,butrathershouldfocusondesigningcomprehensivearchitecturesthatcanmeetthechallengesandopportunitiesofthe21stcentury.”

FIAisacontinuationofFIND,theNSF’sFutureInternetDesignproject.FINDaskedresearcherstoredesigntheinternetfromscratch,andFIAwillnarrowaround50FINDprojectsdowntotwo,threeorfourseriouscontenders.3SafetyandSecurity

Withtheexistinginternet,securityissomethingthat’slargelybeenboltedonasanafterthought—buttheFIAprogramexpectssecuritytobeakeyconsiderationfromtheoutset.[2]That’sleadingtosomeinterestingideas,includingonesecuritysystemthattakesitscuesfromFacebook.DavisSocialLinks(DSL)addsa“socialcontrollayer”tothenetworkthatidentifiesyounotbyyourIPaddressbutbyyoursocialconnections.Ifitworks–andDSLisinthevery,veryearlystagesofdevelopment–itcouldmakeamajordentinproblemssuchasspamanddenialofserviceattacks.

EugeneKaspersky,CEOofKasperskyLab,wouldliketotakethingsevenfurther.InOctober,hearguedthattheinternet’sbiggestweaknesswasanonymity,andthateveryoneshouldhaveonlinepassports.“I’dliketochangethedesignoftheinternetbyintroducingregulation—internetpassports,internetpoliceandinternationalagreement–aboutfollowing[web]standards,”hetoldZDNetAsia.

KasperskyexplainedfurtherontheVblog:“WhenIsay‘noanonymity’,Imeanonly‘noanonymityforsecuritycontrol’,”hewrites,explainingthathecouldn’tcarelesswhatpeoplepostedonblogsordownloadedthroughBitTorrent.“Theonly[requirement]–youmustpresentyourIDtoyourinternetproviderwhenyouconnect.”Kasperskyarguesthatsuchrequirementsareinevitable,withsomeEUcountriesalreadyintroducingdigitalIDs.“Anotherprototypeofe-passportsisthetwo-factorauthenticationweusetoaccesscorporatenetworks,”hesays.“Theonlythingmissingtodayisacommonstandard.”

SecurityguruBruceSchneierisn’tconvinced.“Mandatinguniversalidentityandattributionisthewronggoal,”hewritesonTechtarget.“Acceptthattherewillalwaysbeanonymousspeechontheinternet.Acceptthatyou’llnevertrulyknowwhereapacketcamefrom.Workontheproblemsyoucansolve:softwarethat’ssecureinthefaceofwhateverpacketitreceives,identificationsystemsthataresecureenoughinthefaceoftherisks.Wecandofarbetteratthesethingsthanwe’redoing,andthey’lldomoretoimprovesecuritythantryingtofixinsolubleproblems.”

Thequestforimprovedsecurityisattractingalotofattention-andalotofmoney.TheUSDefenseAdvancedResearchProjectsAgency(DARPA)awardedcontractsworth$56millioninJanuarytotwofirmsaspartofitsNationalCyberRangesecurityprogramme,whichwillenablenetworkinfrastructureexperiments,newcybertestingcapabilitiesandrealistictestingofnetworktechnology.Amonthpreviously,RaytheonBBNTechnologieswasawardedan$81millioncontractbytheArmyResearchLaboratorytobuildthelargestcommunicationslabintheUS,againtoresearchnetworksecurity.

DavidEmmispartofKasperskyLab’sGlobalResearchandAnalysisTeam.“Itwouldbeunrealistictoexpectawholesalere-architectureoftheinternet,orevenofsomeofthetechnologiesthatareusedonline,”hesays.“Ifwefixtheproblembyremovingthefacility,weruntheriskofdamaginglegitimateactivitytoo.”

There’salsotheissueofdisplacement:iftheinternetbecomestoughertocompromise,villainswillsimplyswitchtosocialengineeringinstead.AsEmmpointsout,corporateemailfilteringtoremoveattached‘.exe’filessimplyspawnedtheuseoflinksratherthanattachmentstospreadvirusesandothermalware.“TherehasalwaysbeenahumandimensiontoPCattacks,”hesays.“Patchingcodeisfairlystraightforwardonceyouknowwhatyouneedtofix.Butpatchinghumanstakeslongerandrequiresongoinginvestment.”4TheLastMile

There’sanotherbigpieceofarchitecturethatneedsupgrading:thebitbetweenyourISPandyou.Whetherthat’sawiredconnectionorawirelessone,today’stechnologyneedsaseriousspeedboost.AsTimJohnsonofbroadbandanalystPointTopicexplains,“Overthepast15yearsorsowe’veseenthedataspeedsthattypicalhomeusersgetgoinguproughly10timeseveryfiveyears.Ithinkthatwillcontinueoverthenextdecadesothatby2020manyuserswillbegettingagigabitontheirhomebroadband.”“Thebigbarriersthatmustbeovercometogetthereare(a)extendingfiberallthewaytothehome,and(b)providingthebackhaulcapacityandtheinterconnectstandardstomakeituseful,”heelaborates.“Bothofthosearedo-ablebutIthinkitwillbequitelateintheteensbeforetheyareachieved.”

Johnsonreckonsthatthingswillgetparticularlyinterestingwhen100Mbps+connectionsarethenorm,astheywillbeabletodeliverimmersive,high-definitionenvironmentsand“ahugenewspaceoftechnology,applicationsandlifestylepossibilities”.Buthe’snotconvincedtheinternetcanevenhandlethat—notinitscurrentform,anyway.“Thiskindofapplicationisratherdifferentfromwhattheinternetwasdesignedforandisgoodat,”hesays.“Fromanengineeringpointofviewitwillmeanprovisioningcapacitythatwillallowuserstosetupassuredend-to-endsymmetricalcallsofatleast20Mbpseachway.Therealsoneedstobeahugeamountofstandardsdevelopmentandinvestmenttosupportsetupandswitching.[…]It’spossiblethatthiscouldallbedoneacrosstheopeninternet,butmyownbeliefisthatasthistypeoftrafficgrowsitwillcreatetheneedformorededicatedcapacity.IPandintelligentmultiplexingwillstillrule,butthebasicarchitecturewillbedifferent.”5GoingMobile

Indevelopedcountries,theinternetismovingawayfromthedesktopandontomobilephonesandotherwirelessdevices,whileindevelopingcountriestheinternetisprimarilyamobilemediumalready.Inbothdevelopedanddevelopingcountriesthenumberofmobileinternetuserswillincreasedramaticallyinthenextdecade.Soifyouthinkthemobilenetworksarecreakynow,thingscouldgetconsiderablyworseinadecade.

Forthemobileinternetatleast,thefuturemaylookanawfullotlikethepast.[3]AsJonCrowcroftoftheUniversityofCambridgewrites:“Wearesousedtonetworksthatare‘alwaysthere’—so-calledinfrastructuralnetworkssuchasthephonesystem,theinternet,thecellularnetworks(GSM,CDMA,3G)–andsoonthatweforgetthatonceuponatime(why,onlyinthe1970s)computercommunicationswerefraughtwithproblemsofreliability,andchallengedbyveryhighcostoravailabilityofconnectivityandcapacity.”

Notingthattechnologiessuchasemailcopedfineinthoseconditions,Crowcroftsuggeststhat,“Itappearsthatit’sworthrevisitingtheseideasforavarietyofreasons:itlookslikewecannotaffordtobuildaSolarSystem-wideinternetjustyet,[but]itlookslikeonecanbuildeffectiveend-to-endmobileapplicationsoutofwirelesscommunicationopportunitiesthatariseoutofinfrequentandshortcontactsbetweendevicescarriedbypeopleincloseproximity,andthenwaituntilthesepeoplemoveongeographicallytothenexthop.It’sinterestingtospeculatethatthesesystemsmayactuallyhavemuchhigherpotentialcapacitythaninfrastructuralwirelessaccessnetworks,althoughtheypresentotherchallenges(notablyhigherdelay).”

Suchsystems—variouslycalledIntermittent,OpportunisticorDelayTolerantnetworks–haveawiderangeofapplications.They’reusefulinemergenciesandinareaswherethereisn’tanexistingnetworkinfrastructure,andthey’reparticularlywellsuitedtoemergingapplicationswhereaconstantsignalcan’tbeguaranteed,suchasinternet-enabledcars.

Whilesuchnetworkscouldultimatelybedeployedinremoteareas,formostofusthefutureofthemobileinternetisverysimilartowhatwe’vealreadygot.LTE(LongTermEvolution)isakindof3Gnetworkwithknobson,andintheUKatleastit’sgeneratingmuchmoreinterestthantherivalWiMaxtechnology.WhenLTEbeginstorolloutlaterthisyearitwilldelivertheoreticalspeedsofupto140Mbps,risingto340Mbpsaftera2011upgrade.Anevenfasterversionofthenetwork,LTEAdvanced,isintheworks.It’sworthnoting,though,thateventhefirstversionoftheLTEnetworkwilltakeseveralyearstorolloutnationwide.

AndWiMax?InFebruarythisyear,PatrickPlas–Alcatel-Lucent’sChiefOperatingOfficerforWireless—toldreportersthatthecompany“isnotputtingalotofeffortintothistechnologyanylonger”asmobilenetworkswereshowing“acleardirectiontakenbytheindustrytowardsLTE”.That’sanhonestindicationofwherethemobileinternetisheading.6LookingAhead

Predictingthefutureisatrickybusiness,andpredictingthefutureoftheinternetisdoublyso.However,it’sclearthatthenextdecadewillseesomedramaticchangesinthewaythewebworks.Somechangesaredefinite–themovetoIPv6willhappen,albeitmoreslowlythanmanywouldlike–whileotherdevelopmentssuchasopportunisticnetworksmayneverbecomemainstream.

Whatwecanpredictisthattheinternetof2020willbecopingwithusernumbersandtrafficvolumesthatwecanbarelyimagine.Tobeabletocopewiththat,thenetwillprobablybecomeahybrid:amixofoldandnew.AsFalkputsit:“Recentinterestin‘cleanslate’networkarchitecturesencouragesresearcherstoconsiderhowtheinternetmightbedesigneddifferentlyif,say,weknewthenwhatweknownowabouthowitwillbeused,”hesays.“Butthatisnottosaywemustdiscardthecurrentinternettofixtheproblems.Theinternethastremendousvalue,hassupportedastronomicalgrowthandchangedthelivesofmillionsofpeople.Ibelieveresearchinnewinternetdesignswillprovideinsightsonwherethehigh-leveragepointsareonthecurrentdesignthusallowingustounderstand,justify,anddeploychangesthatwillbringthegreatestbenefit.”

1. Malware

malicioussoftware的简写。不经同意进入计算机的恶意软件。

2. Nightmarishadj.噩梦般的。

3. Latencyn.延迟,潜在因素。

4. pedanticadj.迂腐的,学究式的,卖弄学问的。

5. High-definitionvideon.高清视频。

6. hinderadj.后面的,后部的;在后的v.阻碍,打扰。Vocabulary

7. straightforwardlyadv.正直地。

8. standardizationn.标准化。

9. boltvt.闩上,冲出去。

10. tolerantadj.容忍的,忍受的。

11. muckaroundwith不理解而做一些徒劳的事情。

[1]We’reusingtheinternetinwaysitscreatorscouldn’tpossiblyhaveimagined,fromtheriseofvideotothesheernumberofconnecteddevices.

我们正在以因特网发明者也未必能想象到的方式,从大量的视频服务到广泛的设备互联,都使用因特网。句中的itscreato

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