翻译二级笔译实务分类模拟题10

翻译二级笔译实务分类模拟题10English-ChineseTranslation1.

LONDON—Webster'sDictionarydefinesplagueas"anythingt（江南博哥）hatafflictsortroubles;calamity;scourge."Furtherdefinitionsinclude"anycontagiousepidemicdiseasethatisdeadly;esp.,bubonicplague"and,fromtheBible,"anyofvariouscalamitiessentdownasdivinepunishment."Theverbformmeans"tovex;harass;trouble;torment."

InAlbertCamus'novel,ThePlague,writtensoonaftertheNazioccupationofFrance,thefirstsignoftheepidemicisratsdyinginnumbers:"Theycameupfrombasementsandcubby-holes,cellarsanddrains,inlongswayinglines;theystaggeredinthelight,collapsedanddied,rightnexttopeople.Atnight,incorridorsandside-streets,onecouldclearlyhearthetinysqueaksastheyexpired.Inthemorning,ontheoutskirtsoftown,youwouldfindthemstretchedoutinthegutterwithalittlefloretofbloodontheirpointedmuzzles,someblownupandrotting,otherstiff,withtheirwhiskersstillstandingup."

Theratsaremessengers,but—humannaturebeingwhatitis—theirmessageisnotimmediatelyheeded.Lifemustgoon.Thereareerrandstorun,moneytobemade.ThenovelissetinOran,anAlgeriancoastaltownofcommerceandlassitude,wheretheheatrisessteadilytothepointthattheseachangescolor,deepblueturningtoa"sheenofsilveroriron,makingitpainfultolookat."Evenwhenpeoplestarttodie—theirlymphnodesswollen,blackishpatchesspreadingontheirskin,vomitingbile,gaspingforbreath—theauthorities'responseishesitant.Theword"plague"isalmostunsayable.Inexasperation,thedoctor-protagonisttellsahastilyconvenedhealthcommission:"Idon'tmindtheformofwords.Let'sjustsaythatweshouldnotactasthoughhalfthetownwerenotthreatenedwithdeath,becausethenitwouldbe."

Thesequenceofemotionsfeelsfamiliar.Denialisfollowedbyfaintanxiety,whichisfollowedbyconcern,whichisfollowedbyfear,whichisfollowedbypanic.Thephobiaisstokedbythesuddenrealizationthatthereareuncontrollabledarkforces,lurkinginthedrainsandthesewers,justbeneathlife'splacidsurface.Thediseaseisaleveler,suddenlyeveryoneisvulnerable,andthemoralstrengthofeachindividualistested.Theplagueisoneveryone'sminds,whenit'snotintheirbodies.Questionsmultiply:Whatisthechainoftransmission?Howtoisolatethevictims?

Plagueandepidemicsareathingofthepast,ofcoursetheyare.Physicalcontacthasbeencuttoaminimumindevelopedsocieties.Devicesandtheirdigitalmessagesdirectourlives.Itisnotnecessarytolookintosomeone'seyesletalonetouchtheirskininordertobecome,somehow,intimate.Foodishermeticallysealed.Blood,secretions,saliva,pus,bodilyfluids—thesearethingswithwhichhospitalsdeal,notmattersofdailyconcern.

AviruscontractedinWestAfrica,perhapsbyamanhuntingfruitbatsinatropicalforesttofeedhisfamily,andcuttingthebatopen,cannotaffectanurseinDallas,Texas,whohasbeenwearingprotectiveclothingasshetendedapatientwhodied.Exceptthatitdoes."Pestilenceisinfactverycommon,"Camusobserves,"butwefindithardtobelieveinapestilencewhenitdescendsuponus."

Thescarythingisthatthebatthatcarriesthevirusisnotsick.Itissimplycapableoftransmittingthevirusintherightcircumstances.Inotherwords,thevirusisalwayslurkingevenifinvisible.Itiseasilyignoreduntilitistoolate.

Pestilence,ofcourse,isametaphoraswellasaphysicalfact.Itisnotjustbloodoozingfromgumsandeyes,diarrheaandvomiting.AplaguehaddescendedonEuropeasCamuswrote.ThecalamityandslaughterwerespreadingthroughtheNorthAfricawherehehadpassedhischildhood.ThisvirushoppingtodayfromAfricatoEuropetotheUnitedStateshascomeinatimeofbeheadingsandunease.Peopleputthephenomenatogetherasdenialturnstoanxietyandpanic.Theysensethestirringofuncontrollableforces.Theywanttobewrongbuttheyarenotsuretheyare.

Attheendofthenovel,thedoctorcontemplatesarelievedthrongthathassurvived:"Heknewthatthishappycrowdwasunawareofsomethingthatonecanreadinbooks,whichisthattheplaguebacillusneverdiesorvanishesentirely,thatitcanremaindormantfordozensofyearsinfurnitureorclothing,thatitwaitspatientlyinbedrooms,cellars,trunks,handkerchiefsandoldpapers,andthatperhapsthedaywillcomewhen,fortheinstructionormisfortuneofmankind,theplaguewillrouseitsratsandsendthemtodieinsomewell-contentedcity."正确答案：伦敦——“瘟疫”(plague)在《韦氏词典》中的解释是“带来痛苦或者烦恼的事物；灾难；祸患”，更为具体的解释包括“传染性和致命性流行病，尤指鼠疫”以及《圣经》中提到的“作为天谴的各种灾难”。该词的动词形式意为“使恼火；烦扰；困扰；使痛苦”。

纳粹占领法国不久后，阿尔贝·加缪(AlbertCamus)写下了小说《鼠疫》，其中描写的鼠疫征兆就是老鼠的大批死亡：“它们从隐匿的屋角里、地下室、地窖、阴沟等处接连爬出来，排成了歪七扭八的长队，在光亮处踉踉跄跄地爬动，最后栽倒在地，死在人们的面前。到了夜里，在过道中或巷子里都可以清晰地听到它们垂死挣扎时发出的微弱惨叫声。到了清晨，市郊的居民发现下水道里到处是四脚朝天的死老鼠，它们的尖嘴上都带有一小块血迹。有些已肿胀腐烂，有些四肢僵直，须毛都还直竖着。”

老鼠大批死亡传递了某种信号，可惜人们起初并未在意，这皆因人类本性使然：生活照常继续，人们还要忙着做事，急着赚钱。小说背景选在了阿尔及利亚一个死气沉沉的沿海商贸城市奥兰：当地的天气逐渐变得炎热起来，大海也从深蓝色变成了刺眼的银白或铁灰色，这时有人开始淋巴结肿大，皮肤上黑色的斑点不断扩散，口吐胆汁，呼吸困难，最终不治身亡，但是当局并未采取果断的应对措施。“鼠疫”当时几乎是个禁忌语。当地为此匆忙组建了一个卫生委员会，作为小说主人公的一名医生在开会时不无恼怒地说：“我不在意怎么措辞，但是必须传达的信息是，我们采取措施时不能认为城市一半的人口没有生命危险，因为(如果行动不力)到时真的会有一半的人死于这场疫情。”

人们对疫情的情绪变化过程我们并不陌生：先是否认，然后是一丝焦虑、接着是担忧、恐惧，最后是恐慌，因为人们突然意识到，就在平静的生活表面之下，在阴沟与下水道中潜伏着无法控制的黑暗力量。瘟疫面前人人平等，突然之间大家都变得那么脆弱，每个人的道德力都受到了考验。没有感染瘟疫的人们也都提心吊胆，惶惶不可终日。越来越多的人开始发问：瘟疫是怎么传播开来的?该怎么隔离那些感染瘟疫的人?

时至今日，瘟疫已成历史，这毋庸置疑。在发达国家，肢体接触的概率已经降至最低，各种电子设备及其传递的数字讯息主导着我们的生活，想与人拉近距离时无需眼神交流，更不用肌肤之亲。食物密封包装，血液、分泌物、唾液、脓汁、体液等都由医院处理，人们平时无需为此操心。

正在西非蔓延的(埃博拉)病毒可能最初是由一名在热带雨林中靠猎捕果蝠养家糊口的男子切杀果蝠时感染的。得克萨斯州达拉斯市的一位埃博拉病毒感染者最终不治身亡，照料他的一名护士也被传染，这位护士工作时始终穿着防护服，照理说不应受到传染。加缪写道：“瘟疫对人们来说已是司空见惯，然而一旦落到自己头上，还是觉得难以置信。”

可怕的是携带病毒的蝙蝠并不会患病，但能在适当的条件下传播病毒。换句话说，即便肉眼看不见，这种病毒也将永远处于潜伏状态，人类很容易忽略它的存在，而到病毒爆发时，为时已晚。

当然，“瘟疫”既是一种隐喻，也是一种客观事实。它不仅仅是让人口眼出血、腹泻和呕吐。加缪创作《瘟疫》这部小说的时候，欧洲正经历一场瘟疫。在他童年时期曾经生活过的北非，那场肆虐一时的瘟疫曾经夺去很多人的生命。如今，(恐怖分子的)斩首恶行和紧张气氛困扰着人们，此时埃博拉病毒从非洲蔓延至欧洲和美国，人们的情绪从否认转变为焦虑和恐慌，他们开始琢磨这些现象。他们感知到不可控力量在蠢蠢欲动，希望这是自己的错觉，但又害怕担心的事情最终变成现实。

在小说结尾，那位医生看着为躲过浩劫而松了口气的人群陷入了沉思：“他知道这些暗自庆幸的人们并没有意识到书上记载的有关瘟疫的常识，那就是：鼠疫杆菌永远不死不灭，它能在家具和衣服中潜伏几十年，能在卧室、地窖、皮箱、手帕和废纸堆中耐心等候时机，也许有朝一日，为了教导或者惩罚人类，瘟神会再度发动它的鼠群，去找个人们安居乐业的城市制造一场鼠疫。”

2.

PARIS-WhenFrancewonitssecondNobelPrizeinlessthanaweekonMonday,thistimeforeconomics,PrimeMinisterManuelVallsquicklytooktoTwitter,insistingwithnoshortageofpridethattheaccomplishmentwasaloudrebukeforthosewhosaythatFranceisanationindecline.

"AfterPatrickModiano,anotherFrenchmaninthefirmament:CongratulationstoJeanTirole!"Mr.Vallswrote."Whatawaytothumbone'snoseatFrenchbashing!ProudofFrance."

SomeinthecountrywerealreadygiddyafterMr.Modiano,abelovedauthor,whoseconciseandmoodynovelsareoftensetinFranceduringtheNazioccupation,wontheNobelPrizeforliteraturelastweek.TheawardhelpedtoraisetheglobalstatureofMr.Modiano,whosethreebookspublishedintheUnitedStates—twonovelsandachildren'sbook—beforetheNobelhadcollectivelysoldfewerthan8,000copies.

Joininginthechorus,LeMondesuggestedinaneditorialthatatatimeoframpantFrench-bashing,Mr.Modiano'sachievementwassomethingofavindicationforacountrywhereNobelPrizesinliteratureflowmoreliberallythanoil.Mr.Modianowasthe15thFrenchwriter,includingSartreandCamus,towintheaward.

YetthisbeingFrance,acountrywheredissatisfactioncanbewornlikeanaccessory,someintellectuals,economistsandcriticsgreetedtheawardswithlittlemorethanashrugatatimewhentheeconomyhasbeenfaltering,ParishaslostinfluencetoBerlinandBrussels,thefar-rightNationalFronthasbeensurging,andFrancoisHollandehasbecomeoneofthemostunpopularFrenchpresidentsinrecenthistory.OtherssniffedhaughtilythatwhileFrancewasgreatatculture,itremainedeconomicallyandpoliticallyprostrate.

EvenMr.Modianomayhaveunintentionallycapturedthenationalmoodwhen,informedofhisprizebyhiseditor,hesaidhefoundit"strange"andwantedtoknowwhytheNobelcommitteehadselectedhim.

EvenMr.Modianomayhaveunintentionallycapturedthenationalmoodwhen,informedofhisprizebyhiseditor,hesaidhefoundit"strange"andwantedtoknowwhytheNobelcommitteehadselectedhim.

AlainFinkielkraut,aprofessorofphilosophyattheelitePolytechnique,whorecentlypublishedabookcriticizingwhathecharacterizedasFrance'sdescentintoconformityandmulticulturalism,saidthatratherthanshowingthatFrancewasontheascent,thefetishizingoftheNobelPrizesbytheFrenchpoliticaleliterevealedthecountry'sdesperation.

"IfindtheideathattheNobelsarebeingusedasaripostetoFrench-bashingidiotic,"hesaid."Oureducationsystemistotallybroken,andtheNobelPrizedoesn'tchangeanything.IhavealotofaffectionforMr.Modiano,butIthinkPhilipRothdeserveditmuchmore.TotalkthatallinFranceisgoingwellandthatthepessimismisgoneisabsurd.Franceisdoingextremelybadly.Thereisaneconomiccrisis.Thereisacrisisofintegration.Iamnotgoingtobeconsoledbythesemedalsmadeofchocolate."

RobertFrank,ahistoryprofessoremeritusattheUniversityofParis1—Sorbonne,andtheauthorofTheFearofDecline,FranceFrom1914to2014,echoedthattheself-aggrandizementthathadgreetedtheprizesamongtheFrenchestablishmentreflectedacountrylackinginself-confidence.Inearliercenturies,henoted,theprizehadbeengreetedassomethingobvious.

WhenFrenchwritersorintellectualswonNobelsinthemid-20thcentury,"therewasnojoltatthattime,becauseFrancestillsawitselfasimportant,sotherewasn'tmuchtoaddtothat,"hesaid."Today,itmayhelpsomepeopletoshowthatFrancestillcountsincertainplacesintheworld.Thisdoesn'tfixthecrisisofunemployment,however,thatissappingthissociety."

Inacademiceconomiccircles,Mr.Tirole'swinningthe2014Nobelineconomicscienceforhisworkonthebestwaytoregulatelarge,powerfulfirms,wasgreetedasafittingtributetoamanwhoseworkhadexertedprofoundinfluence.ItaddedtoanalreadyprominentyearforFrencheconomists,asseenfromThomasPiketty'sbook,CapitalintheTwenty-FirstCentury,whichbecameanimmediatebest-sellerwhentranslatedintoEnglishsixmonthsago.

Mr.Tirole'sworkgainedparticularattentionafterthe2008financialcrisis,whichrevealedproblemsintheregulationoffinancialfirmsintheUnitedStatesandEurope.

Butsomenotedtheparadoxoftheawardgoingtoaneconomistfromanationwheretheeconomywaslessthanshimmering,andwheremanybusinessesandcriticsbemoanacultureofexcessiveredtape.

OtherslikeSeanSafford,anassociateprofessorofeconomicsociologyatInstitutPolitiquesdeParis,theeliteinstituteforpoliticalstudiesknownasSciencesPo,saidMr.Tirole,aprofessorofeconomicsattheUniversityofToulouseinFrance,wasnotableforcomingatatimeofeconomicmalaiseandbraindrain,whensomanyofthecountry'sbrightestareemigratingelsewhereinEuropeortotheUnitedStates."TheaverageFrenchperson,whoisstrugglingtopaythebills,isnotgoingtorejoice,"hesaid.

AtatimewhenFranceistryingtooverhaulitssocialmodelamidwitheringresistancetochange,otherssaidtheawardhadlaidbarethecountry'sabidingstratificationbetweenasmall,hyper-educatedeliteandtherestofthecountry.

PeterGumbel,aBritishjournalistlivinginFrancewhomostrecentlywroteabookonFrenchelitism,saidthatwhiletheprizewouldprovidesomesenseofnationalvalidation,thetwomendidnotreflectthecountryasawhole.

"UndoubtedlytheFrenchecosystemproducesincrediblysmartpeopleattheverytopend,whoarecapableofwinningprizes,andwhofallintoagrandtradition,andthatiswhattheFrenchschoolsystemisgearedtoProduce,"hesaid.正确答案：巴黎——本周一，法国在不到一周的时间里获得了本年度第二个诺贝尔奖：诺贝尔经济学奖。获奖消息传来后，法国总理曼纽尔·瓦尔斯(ManuelValls)很快在推特网(Twitter)上满怀自豪地发布消息称，获得诺奖对于那些唱衰法国的人而言不啻是一次响亮的回击。

“继帕特里克·莫迪亚诺(PatrickModiano)之后，又一个法国人登上巅峰：恭喜让·梯若尔(JeanTirole)!”瓦尔斯写道。“这是回击法国衰落论的绝佳方式!为法国自豪。”

莫迪亚诺上周获得诺贝尔文学奖，已经让一些法国人沾沾自喜。莫迪亚诺是一名受人爱戴的作家，其小说文字简练、气氛感伤，往往以纳粹占领时期的法国为故事背景。在获奖之前，莫迪亚诺在美国出版的两本小说和一本儿童读物总销量不足8000册，此次获奖有助于提高其在全球文学界的地位。

法国的《世界报》(LeMonde)也发表社论称，在法国衰落论甚嚣尘上之时，莫迪亚诺获奖算是对法国的一种肯定。法国获得诺贝尔文学奖“比石油流动还容易”。莫迪亚诺是第15位获得过诺贝尔文学奖的法国作家，萨特和加缪也都赫然在列。

如今法国经济举步维艰，影响力不如德国和比利时，极右翼政党国民阵线(NationalFront)的势力急剧扩张，总统弗朗索瓦·奥朗德沦为法国近年来最不受欢迎的总统之一。同时，法国人发泄不满情绪就像穿戴配饰一样平常。因此，一些知识分子、经济学家和评论人士对法国获得诺贝尔奖也只是耸耸肩，觉得无所谓。其他他人则以傲慢的口吻对获奖嗤之以鼻，称法国是文化上的巨人，经济和政治上的矮子。

就连莫迪亚诺本人也在无意中受到这种国民情绪的感染。当编辑告知他获奖一事时，他说自己都觉得“奇怪”，很纳闷为什么诺贝尔委员会选中了他。

阿兰·芬基尔克罗(AlainFinkielkraut)是一名哲学教授，任教于菁英汇集的巴黎综合理工学院(Polytechnique)。在最近出版的一本书中，他称法国陷入了因循守旧和多元文化主义，对此大加批评。芬基尔克罗说，法国政治上层对诺贝尔奖盲目迷恋，显示的并不是法国的欣欣向荣，而是法国孤注一掷的绝望处境。

“我觉得拿获得诺奖一事还击法国衰落论实乃愚蠢之举，”他说。“我们的教育体系彻底崩溃，获奖也无济于事。我很喜欢莫迪亚诺，但我认为菲利普·罗斯(PhilipRoth)更有资格获奖。那种声称法国一切运行良好、悲观情绪已经消失的说法很是荒谬。法国现在的处境糟糕透顶，既有经济危机，也有融合危机。这些无关痛痒的‘巧克力’奖牌不会给我什么慰藉。”

罗伯特·弗兰克(RobertFrank)是巴黎第一大学(UniversityofParis1—Sorbonne)的历史学荣休教授，著有《对衰落的恐惧：1914年到2014年的法国》(TheFearofDecline，FranceFrom1914to2014)一书。他也认为，法国领导人对获奖一事大肆夸耀，这恰恰是国家缺乏自信的表现。他指出，在之前的几个世纪，人们都把法国获奖视为理所当然的事情。

在20世纪中期，法国作家或知识分子荣获诺贝尔奖“不会引起轰动，因为那时法国人仍然认为自己是个大国，无需太多锦上添花，”他说。“时至今日，一些人可以拿获奖说事，显示法国在某些领域依然占有举足轻重的地位。但是，获奖本身并不能解决失业这一严重社会问题。”

梯若尔因其在“对实力雄厚的大型企业进行监管的最佳方式”方面所做的研究荣获2014年诺贝尔经济学奖。经济学界认为他的研究成果产生了深远影响，这个奖项实至名归。法国经济学家今年早已抢尽风头：托马斯-皮克提(ThomasPiketty)的著作《二十一世纪资本论》(Capita/intheTwenty-FirstCentury)英文版半年前刚一问世就成了畅销书。

2008年爆发的金融危机暴露了欧美金融监管方面存在的问题，由此梯若尔的研究备受关注。

但有人指出，法国经济形势乏善可陈，官僚作风盛行在企业界和批评人士中也是饱受诟病，将经济学奖颁给法国经济学家有些说不过去。

著名政治研究机构巴黎政治学院(InstitutPolitiquesdeParis，也称SciencesPo)的经济社会学副教授肖恩-萨福德(SeanSafford)等人表示，值得注意的是，身为图卢兹大学(UniversityofToulouse)经济学教授的梯若尔此时获奖恰逢法国面临经济困境、大批优秀人才外流至其他欧洲国家或美国之时。他说，“正在为支付账单发愁的法国大众不会为他获奖感到高兴。”

现在法国抵制改革的力量正在减弱，法国政府试图借机改革社会模式。有人说，对获得诺奖反响不一也暴露了法国受教育程度较高的精英群体和其他人群之间长期存在的阶层之别。

常驻法国的英国记者彼得-冈贝尔(PeterGumbel)最近写了一本关于法国精英主义的书。他说，虽然获得诺贝尔奖能在某种程度上让人感觉国家得到了认可，但两位获奖人并不能代表国家的整体素质。

“毫无疑问，法国的(精英教育)体制是培养处于顶层、极为聪明的人才，这些人拥有获奖的能力，又遵循伟大的传统，这正是法国教育体制的目标所在，”他说。

3.

"WisdomoftheCrowd":TheMythsandRealities

Arethemanywiserthanthefew?PhilBallexploresthelatestevidenceonwhatcanmakegroupsofpeoplesmarter—butcanalsomakethemwildlywrong.

IsTheLordoftheRingsthegreatestworkofliteratureofthe20thCentury?IsTheShawshankRedemptionthebestmovieevermade?Bothhavebeenawardedthesetitlesbypublicvotes.Youdon'thavetobealiteraryorfilmsnobtowonderaboutthewisdomofso-called"wisdomofthecrowd",

Inanageroutinelydenouncedasselfishlyindividualistic,it'scuriousthatagreatdealoffaithstillseemstoliewiththejudgmentofthecrowd,especiallywhenitcanapparentlybefaroffthemark.Yetthereissometruthunderpinningtheideathatthemassescanmakemoreaccuratecollectivejudgmentsthanexpertindividuals.Sowhyisacrowdsometimesrightandsometimesdisastrouslywrong?

Thenotionthatagroup'sjudgementcanbesurprisinglygoodwasmostcompellinglyjustifiedinJamesSurowiecki's2005bookTheWisdomofCrowds,andisgenerallytracedbacktoanobservationbyCharlesDarwin'scousinFrancisGaltonin1907.Galtonpointedoutthattheaverageofalltheentriesina"guesstheweightoftheox"competitionatacountryfairwasamazinglyaccurate—beatingnotonlymostoftheindividualguessesbutalsothoseofallegedcattleexperts.Thisistheessenceofthewisdomofcrowds:theiraveragejudgmentconvergesontherightsolution.

Still,Surowieckialsopointedoutthatthecrowdisfarfrominfallible.Heexplainedthatonerequirementforagoodcrowdjudgementisthatpeople'sdecisionsareindependentofoneanother.Ifeveryoneletthemselvesbeinfluencedbyeachother'sguesses,there'smorechancethattheguesseswilldrifttowardsamisplacedbias.Thisunderminingeffectofsocialinfluencewasdemonstratedin2011byateamattheSwissFederalInstituteofTechnology(ETH)inZurich.

Theyaskedgroupsofparticipantstoestimatecertainquantitiesingeographyorcrime,aboutwhichnoneofthemcouldbeexpectedtohaveperfectknowledgebutallcouldhazardaguess—thelengthoftheSwiss-Italianborder,forexample,ortheannualnumberofmurdersinSwitzerland.Theparticipantswereofferedmodestfinancialrewardsforgoodgroupguesses,tomakesuretheytookthechallengeseriously.

Theresearchersfoundthat,astheamountofinformationparticipantsweregivenabouteachother'sguessesincreased,therangeoftheirguessesgotnarrower,andthecentreofthisrangecoulddriftfurtherfromthetruevalue.Inotherwords,thegroupsweretendingtowardsaconsensus,tothedetrimentofaccuracy.

Thisfindingchallengesacommonviewinmanagementandpoliticsthatitisbesttoseekconsensusingroupdecisionmaking.Whatyoucanendupwithinsteadisherdingtowardsarelativelyarbitraryposition.Justhowarbitrarydependsonwhatkindofpoolofopinionsyoustartoffwith,accordingtosubsequentworkbyoneoftheETHteam,FrankSchweitzer,andhiscolleagues.Theysaythatifthegroupgenerallyhasgoodinitialjudgement,socialinfluencecanrefineratherthandegradetheircollectivedecision.

Nooneshouldneedwarningaboutthedangersofherdingamongpoorlyinformeddecision-makers:copycatbehaviourhasbeenwidelyregardedasoneofthemajorcontributingfactorstothefinancialcrisis,andindeedtoallfinancialcrisesofthepast.

TheSwissteamcommentedthatthisdetrimentalherdingeffectislikelytobeevengreaterfordecidingproblemsforwhichnoobjectivelycorrectanswerexists,whichperhapsexplainshowdemocraticcountriesoccasionallyelectsuchastonishinglyineptleaders.

There'sanotherkeyfactorthatmakesthecrowdaccurate,ornot.Ithaslongbeenarguedthatthewisestcrowdsarethemostdiverse.That'saconclusionsupportedina2004studybyScottPageoftheUniversityofMichiganandLuHongofLoyolaUniversityinChicago.

Theyshowedthat,inatheoreticalmodelofgroupdecision-making,adiversegroupofproblem-solversmadeabettercollectiveguessthanthatproducedbythegroupofbest-performingsolvers.

Inotherwords,diversemindsdobetter,whentheirdecisionsareaveraged,thanexpertminds.

Infact,here'sasituationwherealittleknowledgecanbeadangerousthing.Astudyin2011byateamledbyJosephSimmonsoftheYaleSchoolofManagementinNewHaven,ConnecticutfoundthatgrouppredictionsaboutAmericanfootballresultswereskewedawayfromtherealoutcomesbytheover-confidenceofthefans'decisions,whichbiasedthemtowardsalleged"favourites"intheoutcomesofgames.

Allofthesefindingssuggestthatknowingwhoisinthecrowd,andhowdiversetheyare,isvitalbeforeyouattributetothemanyrealwisdom.

Couldtherealsobewaystomakeanexistingcrowdwiser?Lastmonth,AnticlineDavis-StoberoftheUniversityofMissouriandhisco-workerspresentedcalculationsataconferenceonCollectiveIntelligencethatprovideafewanswers.

Theyfirstrefinedthestatisticaldefinitionofwhatitmeansforacrowdtobewise—when,exactly,someaggregateofcrowdjudgmentscanbeconsideredbetterthanthoseofselectedindividuals.

Thisdefinitionallowedtheresearcherstodevelopguidelinesforimprovingthewisdomofagroup.Previousworkmightimplythatyoushouldaddrandomindividualswhosedecisionsareunrelatedtothoseofexistinggroupmembers.Thatwouldbegood,butit'sbetterstilltoaddindividualswhoaren'tsimplyindependentthinkersbutwhoseviewsare"negativelycorrelated"—asdifferentaspossible—fromtheexistingmembers.Inotherwords,diversitytrumpsindependence.

Ifyouwantaccuracy,then,addthosewhomightdisagreestronglywithyourgroup.Whatdoyoureckonofthechancesthatmanagersandpoliticianswillselectsuchcontrariancandidatestojointhem?Allthesame,armedwiththisinformationIintendtoapplyforapositionintheCabinetoftheBritishgovernment.They'dbewisenottorefuse.正确答案：“群体智慧”：假设与现实

人越多越有智慧吗?菲尔·鲍尔(PhilBall)提供的最新证据揭示了导致群体更具智慧但又可能大错特错的因素。

《指环王》是20世纪最伟大的文学作品吗?《肖申克的救赎》是有史以来最好的影片吗?至少公众投票给出了这样的结论。即便你对文学作品或者电影作品不那么挑剔，也不禁会对所谓的“群体智慧”产生疑问。

我们生活的这个年代通常被视为是自私自利、个人主义盛行的年代，但是人们很大程度上依然相信群体判断，特别是当这种群体判断明显偏颇之时，这令人匪夷所思。但是，认为群体判断比专家的个人判断更为准确也确有道理。那么，为什么群体判断有时准确无误有时却又谬以千里呢?

有关群体判断相当准确的看法在詹姆斯·索罗维基(JamesSurowiecki)2005年出版的《群体智慧》(TheWisdomofCrowds)一书中得到了最有力的诠释，人们通常认为这种看法最早可以追溯到1907年查尔斯·达尔文(CharlesDarwin)的堂兄弗朗西斯·高尔顿(cousinFrancisGalton)所作的评论。高尔顿指出，在乡村集市上举行的“猜牛体重”比赛中人们所给答案的平均值相当准确，令人啧啧称奇，相比较之下，个人答案大部分都错了，就连那些所谓的养牛专家们也甘拜下风。这就是群体智慧的本质所在：群体判断的平均值就是正确答案。

尽管如此，索罗维基同时指出，群体判断与准确无误相去甚远。他解释称，准确的群体判断有一个前提条件，那就是个人判断彼此独立，没有相互影响。如果个体受到彼此判断的影响，那么群体判断出现偏差的可能性就增加了。为了证明人们之间相互影响产生的负面效应，2011年研究人员在苏黎世的瑞士联邦理工学院(SwissFederalInstituteofTechnology)进行了群体实验。

研究人员要求参与实验的人预估有关地理或犯罪率的具体数值，这些信息没有哪个参与者能了如指掌，但是大家都可以做出猜测，比如：瑞士与意大利的边境线有多长，瑞士每年的谋杀案有多少起等。如果群体猜测结果较为接近，参与者可以获得一点现金奖励，这样可以保证大家认真参与这个实验。

研究人员发现，当向实验参与者提供越来越多有关其他人的猜测结果后，参与者的猜测范围缩小了，猜测的中间值也越来越偏离真实数值。换言之，大家的答案逐渐趋向一致，但是离正确答案却渐行渐远。

在管理和政治领域存在一种共识，即最好的决策方法是集体协商一致，因此，上述研究结果与这种普遍共识存在冲突。瑞士联邦理工学院的一组研究人员法兰克·施威茨(FrankSchweitzer)和他的同事得出的结论是，集体协商一致的结果是大家达成一个相对武断的结论，偏离的程度要看最开始得到的群体判断，如果这个群体通常有高质量的初步判断能力，那么成员间的相互影响会提高而不是降低群体决策的准确性。

与信息闭塞的决策者在一起的危险尽人皆知，毋庸讳言：人们普遍认为，仿冒行为是造成这次金融危机的主要原因，其实历史上所有的金融危机也概莫能外。

瑞士联邦理工学院的研究人员认为，这种从众心理十分有害，对那些客观上不存在正确答案的决策问题危害就更大了。这也许可以解释为什么民主国家有时选出的领导人比较昏庸无能。

左右群体决策正确与否还有一大因素。长期以来人们一直认为最具智慧的群体意见最不统一。密歇根大学的斯科特·佩奇(ScottPage)和芝加哥洛约拉大学的卢红(音译，LuHong)2004年所做的研究验证了这一结论。

研究显示，在群体决策的理论模型中，解决问题能力不一的群体所做的集体决策要优于个体解决问题能力较强的群体。

换言之，普通大众所做的决策取中间值后要优于专家决策。

事实上，还有一种情形就是有所了解也会出错。2011年康涅狄格州纽黑文市耶鲁大学管理学院的约瑟夫-西蒙斯(JosephSimmons)牵头进行的一项研究显示，人们对橄榄球比赛的预测结果与实际结果并不吻合，主要是因为球迷们过于相信自己看好的球队获胜，所以预测时难免带有偏见。

所有这些研究结果都表明，在你做出判断时，一定要清楚群体的人员构成和多元化程度，这至关重要。

有没有让现有群体做出更准确判断的方法呢?上个月，密苏里大学的安迪克莱恩·戴维斯-施托贝尔(AnticlineDavis-Stober)与同事在有关群体智慧的大会上展示了相关数据，从中可以找到一些答案。

他们首先对群体智慧的定义进行了统计学上的完善，即集体判断何时可以被视作优于个体判断。

根据这一统计学定义，研究人员可以为改善群体智慧出谋划策。这当然是好事，不过最好是能随机将群体外一些个人的意见考虑在内。这些随机个体不仅仅有独立的思考，他们的观点也与现有的群体成员大相径庭，是“负相关”。换言之，多样性比独立性更重要。

如果想提高准确性，那就把那些可能与你所在群体的观点迥异的人考虑在内进行统计。你认为企业高管和政客们允许与自己观点相左的人加入他们阵营的概率有多大呢?不管怎么样，了解了这一信息后，我想在英国政府内阁中谋求一个职位，如果他们明智的话就不要拒绝我。

4.

HowmuchmoneycanbemadefromtryingtoextractoilandgasfromthelayersofshalethatliebeneathBritain?

Answeringthatisprovingtobeasurprisinglydifficultscientificquestionbecauseknowingthebasicfactsaboutshaleisnotenough.

Thelayershavebeenwellmappedforyears.Infactuntilrecentlygeologiststendedtoregardshaleascommonplace,evendull—aviewthathasobviouslychanged.

Thekeytoolisaseismicsurvey:soundwavesaresentintothegroundandthereflectionsrevealthepatternsoftherocks.Thisdescribeswheretheshaleliesbutnotmuchmore.

Soweknow,forexample,thattheBowlandShale—whichstraddlesnorthernEngland—coversafarsmallerareathanthemassiveshaleformationsoftheUnitedStatesbutitisalsomuchthickerthantheyare.

Thatmaymeanthatitisapotentiallyricherresourceorthatitishardertoexploit.Britain'sgeologicalhistoryislongandtortured,sofoldsandfracturesdisrupttheshalelayers,creatingamorecomplexpicturethanacrosstheAtlantic.

Toassesswhatthelayersholdinvolvesanotherstep:wellshavetobedrilledintotherocktoallowcorestobeextractedsotheshalecanbeanalysedinmoredetail.

AsEdHoughoftheBritishGeologicalSurveytoldme:"Weknowtheareasunderthegroundwhichcontaingasandoil—whatwedon'tknowishowthatgasandoilmightbereleasedfromthedifferentunitsofrockandextracted."

"There'salotofvariabilityintheserocks—sotheircomposition,theirhistoryandthegeologicalconditionsallcomeintoplayandareallvariable."

Thatmeansthatneighbouringfrackingoperationsmightcomeupwithverydifferentresults.

InalabattheBGSnearNottingham,I'mshownasimplebuteffectiveproofthatshaledoescontainthehydrocarbons—gasandoil—attheheartofthecurrentsurgeininterest.

Afewchunksoftherockaredroppedintoabeakerofwaterandgentlyheateduntiltheyproducetinybubbleswhichriselikestringsofpearlstothesurface.

Itisasightwhichisbothbeautifulandsignificant—thebubblesaremethane,whichthegovernmenthopeswillformanewsourceofhomegrownenergy.

Thegasandoilwereformedmillionsofyearsagowhentinyplantsandotherorganismsaccumulatedonthefloorofanancientandwarmocean—atonestageBritainlayinthetropics.

Thisorganicmatterwasthencompactedandcookedbynaturalgeologicalwarmthwhichtransformeditintothefuelsinsuchdemandnow.

Soonequestionisthe"totalorganiccontent"oftheshale—howmuchorganicmaterialisheldinside—andtherecanbelargevariationsinthis.

Butestablishingthattheshaleisladenwithfossilfuelsisonlyonepartofthestory.Thesamples,extractedfromdeepunderground,thenneedtobestudiedtoseehowreadilytheywouldreleasethefuels.

SotheBGSscientistsfitsmallblocksoftheshaleintodevicesthatsqueezeitandheatit—tryingtomimictheconditionsthatwouldbeexperiencedduringafrackingoperation,whenhighpressurewaterandchemicalsareinjectedintotheshaletobreakitapart.

Understandinghowtheshalebehavesisessentialtoformingajudgmentonhowlucrativeitmightprovetobe—orhowunyieldingordifficult,assomeshalecanturnouttobe.

DrCarolineGraham,aspecialistingeomechanicswiththeBGS,explainedwhattheresearchintotherocksampleswastryingtoachieve:"We'llbeabletounderstandbetterhowlikelytheyaretoproducecertainamountsofgas,howeasilytheywillfrackandthereforeitwillgiveusafarbetterideaofhowviabletheUKdepositsareeconomicallyspeaking."

Theseareearlydaysforthescience.AndhopesthatBritainwillbeabletocopyAmerica'sshalerevolutionmaybeunrealistic.

Aseniorexecutivefromaglobalenergycompanyoncesaidadecisiononwhethertoexploitanewshale"play"orareawouldonlybemadeafter40-60explorationwellshadbeendug.

ProfessorPaulStevens,anenergyexpertwiththeRoyalInstituteforInternationalAffairs,said:"It'sgoingtotakealotmorewellstobedrilledandalotmorewellstobefracturedbeforeweevengetanideaoftheextenttowhichwemightexpectashalegasrevolutionandoverwhattimeperiod."

SoestablishingthatBritishshaleis