轻工制造-24W44：24Q3运动服饰销售压力环比加大奢侈品公司增速继续放缓

证券研究报告行业动态报告24W44：24Q3运动服饰销售压力环比加大，奢侈品公司增速继续放缓分析师：叶乐yeleAC编号：S1440519030001SFC编号：BOT812分析师：黄杨璐huangyangluAC编号：S1440521100001分析师：张舒怡zhangshuyiAC编号：S1440523070004发布日期：2024年11月3日中信建投证券CHINASECURITIES本报告由中信建投证券股份有限公司在中华人民共和国（仅为本报告目的，不包括香港、澳门、台湾）提供。在遵守适用的法律法规情况下，本报告亦可能由中信建投（国际）证券有限公司在香港提供。同时请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款和声明。核心要点速环比放缓。24Q3日本市场增速环比收窄但仍表现最优；品类上高奢皮具韧性强；除顶奢之外，部分具备品牌势能的奢侈品牌维持高增（如MiuMiu）。中信建投证券CHINASECURITIES 1）流水端：24Q3流水增速环比Q2继续放缓，其中线上优于线下，安踏主安踏各品牌零售增长情况及库销比零售流水安踏主品牌40%-45%35%-40%10%-20%低段增长10%-20%10%-20%高段增长高单位数高单位数高单位数高段增长高单位数FILA品牌75%-80%30%-35%高单位数高单位数10%-20%10%-20%高单位数25%-30%高单位数低单位数低段增长低段下降高段增长低段增长其他品牌115%-120%70%-75%35%-40%30%-35%40%-45%20%-25%40%-45%10%-20%低段增长75%-80%70-75%45-50%55%-60%25%-30%40%-45%45%-50%库销比安踏主品牌约5个月约5个月约5个月约5个月约5个月略超5个月略超5个月略超5个月小于5个月小于5个月5个月小于5个月小于5个月小于5个月小于5个月FILA品牌约6个月约6个月6-7个月6-7个月6-7个月略超7个月7-8个月环比Q3改善小于5个月小于5个月略超5个月小于5个月小于5个月小于5个月略小于5个月李宁各品牌零售和同店增长情况及库销比零售流水全渠道零售流水80-90%90%-100%40%-50%30%-40%20%-30%高单位数10%-20%10%-20%中单位数10%-20%中单位数2低单位数低单位数中单位数高段增长低段增长低段增长低段增长高段增长低段下降增长中段增长增长低段增长线下80%-90%90%-100%30%-40%20%-30%高单位数10%-20%10%-20%高单位数10%-20%高单位数20%-30%低单位数中单位数高单位数低段增长低段增长高段增长高段增长高段下降增长高段增长增长高段增长90%-100%50%-60%40%-50%30%-40%20%-30%10%-20%10%-20%低单位数中单位数20%-30%高单位数中单位数高段增长低段增长低段下降低段增长下降增长低段增长增长增长全渠道同店增长 80%-90%20%-30%20%-30%20%-30%10%-20%高单位数10%-20%高单位数低单位数中单位数10%-20%低段增长高段增长低段增长低段增长低段下降高段下降库销比3.6个月4个来月4.2个月4-4.5个月3.8个月近5个月3.6个月4-4.5个月3.9个月接近5个月特步各品牌零售增长以及零售折扣零售流水特步主品牌30%-35%20%-25%30%-35%20%-25%高单位数高双位数高双位数高单位数折扣率7折-75折75折-8折75折-8折75折-8折7折-75折7折-75折7折-75折7折-75折7折-75折零售库存周转约4.5个月约4个月约4个月约4个月约4个月约4个半月4.5-5个月约5.5个月5个月以下5个月以下4.5-5个月4-4.5个月4-4.5个月4个月4个月CHINASECURITIES 332232342212.21--332232342212.21--品牌服饰全网销售月度跟踪（天猫+京东+抖音）-2024.09【建投轻工纺服教育】单月GMVyoy安踏李宁斐乐迪桑特始祖鸟特步国际361度耐克阿迪达斯彪马安德玛露露乐蒙波司登太平鸟海澜之家单月GMVyoy2024-0913.3%-14.7%4.0%122.5%122.5%204.9%-23.2%1.4%-23.7%7.4%23.4%8.6%.3%106.5%-2.5%8.2%61.4%2024-0810.4%20.2%130.0%151.9%151.9%-1.6%4.2%3.8%11.4%23.3%12.6%8.8%24.6%-4.2%10.1%20.7%2024-07-5.3%6.6%5%151.6%151.6%4.8%-7.1% 5.6%15.1%11.4%-10.2%6.4%82.7%-24.5%9.4%3.0%2024-06-1.1%-4.6%-0.9%.8%20.5%-4.2% 6.3%16.5%-13.6%-30.7%5.0%70.8%-15.3%20.0%-0.5%2024-053.5%-6.1%22.8%133.2%28.2%7.1%24.3%10.7%-5.5%11.8%6%89.3%5.5%57.6%18.1%2024-044.6%14.2%.3%247.0%18.4%22.6%19.3%.8%-4.8%-8.0%126.1%126.1%54.6%56.6%9.9%2024-03 12.0%-6.1%10.3%5353.1%-4.2%1.8%9.0%-3.9%-10.8%2.6%26.3%76.0%-25.9%22.8%10.0%2024-02-7.1%-5.5%8.5%.3%.4%-8.3%1.6%23.5%-5.0%-13.2%52.0%-33.6%41.6%-9.4%2024-0145.9%5.9%11.8%8.9%4.4%16.2%29.9%9.2%-23.2%-8.4%-20.8%1%3.2%-13.1%49.1%-17.1%2023-129.5%-5.6%2.2%4.1%7.0%-9.8%0.7%1.2%-20.8%-15.5%-29.5%4%10.4%-30.3%37.1%-31.0%2023-11-1.4%-4.1%15.0%7%24.8%-13.1%-6.2%6.5%7.8%-6.7%-20.8%0.1%81.2%-22.8%48.6%9.2%2023-10-6.2%-16.5%8.1%25.8%6.0%-8.0% 13.0% 26.8%-15.8%-10.5%-16.3%3.3%-11.8%-51.6%55.0%-16.6%2023-09-5.8%11.4%0.8%.1%.6%0.1%26.9%6.3%-1.8%6.5%12.3%8.8%9.0%-12.1%31.5%1.4%2023-089.9%-14.7%6.8%.8%2%6.1%24.4%5959.8%-10.6%13.7%.8%35.9%-23.6%56.6%-17.1%2023-07-3.9%-2.8%19.8%91.5%31.9%-19.4%23.2%5252.2%-0.4%0.9%31.3%2.6%37.0%15.1%24.8%-1.8%2023-06-24.2%-16.5%-4.1%-2.4%-14.1%-17.5% 12.1%2.6%-47.8%11.5%-9.4%0.8%-23.7%48.4%0.0%2023-05 4.7%.5%.1%.9%-17.7%27.7%%-6.4%.6%9%%99.2%4.5%40.8%34.7%2023-04-5.8%-7.2%3.6%.1%140.0%-3.5%2.7%54.7%-25.5%.9%9%.5%207.5%-37.9%36.1%60.3%2023-03-7.8%0.5%3.0%.2%3.2%19.3%7.8%48.5%-13.4%.1%5.0%8.3%76.3%-11.8%37.9%-29.0%累计GMVyoy安踏李宁斐乐迪桑特始祖鸟特步国际361度耐克阿迪达斯彪马安德玛露露乐蒙波司登太平鸟海澜之家累计GMVyoy2024-09-2.1%147.2%5.7% 8.6%14.4%10.1%0.8%-3.7%.5%6%6%2%1%1%9.4%2024-08-0.3%138.3%9.9%9.5%18.8%10.5%-1.1%-8.1%.8%4%4%.0%6%6%3.5%2024-07-1.8%86.1%86.1%135.9%11.7%10.3%16.7%10.3%-3.6%-10.2%.0%8%8%.7%2%2%2.2%2024-06-1.2%84.5%84.5%134.0%12.8%13.4%18.2%9.7%-4.7%-10.2%.9%7%5%3%3%2.1%2024-05-0.3%3.3%85.3%85.3%127.7% 10.6% 19.0%2.5%7.9%-2.2%-1.5%8%6%9%7%2.8%2024-041.6%1.9%3.5%70.4%5.3%13.1%1.7%7.0%-1.4%-6.6%.6%7%.6%2%7%2024-03-2.3%l10.5%.9%0.6%9.0%2.5%-4.8%-8.7%-7.3%%3%-23-23.2%8%8%9%2024-020.2%0.5% 10.6% .8%.2%4.7%15.3% 32.2%-5.5%-6.8%-17.7% 142.2% 5%-22-22.0%6%.1%2024-01 .9%5.9%11.8%8.9%.4%16.2%9.9%.2%-23.2%-8.4%-20.8%2%.1%1%.1%2023-12-5.1%-7.1%9.1%.6%.0%-9.0%0.4%.2%-17.9%12.0%8.9%3%6%6%-23-23.1%2%2%..9%2023-11-6.2%-7.2%1.4%.0%.7%-8.9%19.0%.0%-17.6%15.2%12.5%.8%2%-22-22.2%7%7%-55%2023-10-7.0%-7.7%2.8%.6%.8%-8.3%4.0%.6%-22.3%0.6%.0%2%-22-22.1%3%3%..5%2023-09-7.2%-6.1%1.7%.8%.2%-8.3%5.5%.6%-23.2%7.2%7.1%.8%5%-17-17.5%9%9%8%2023-08-7.3%-8.2%9.7%.5%.0%-9.4%5.3%.1%-25.2%9.3%8.8%7%7%.1%5%5%7%2023-07-9.4%-7.3%1.5%.5%.5%-11.4%5.4%.9%-26.8%9.3%0.6%4%6%-17-17.4%6%6%9%2023-06-10.0%-8.0%1.7%.5%.6%-9.9%5.8%.3%-29.2%2.0%0.6%4%2%-21-21.0%0%0%4%2023-05-4.9%-5.2% 33.3% 54.0%%-7.5%0.9% 56.3%-21.5%.3%7%1%0%-20-20.4%0%0%2%2023-04--16.7%--13.7%7%1.1%-3.8%%%-25-25.4%%1.2%1.2%.8%.8%-2-25.6%.7%-1-17.1%2023-03-20-20.3%-15-15.7%.1%2.2%2.2%2.2%4.0%7.8%7.8%%-25.4%7.3%7.3%%1%.3%.3%-2-22.6% .1%1.9%中信建投证券 CY23Q1CY23Q2CY23Q3CY23Q4CY24Q1CY24Q2CY24Q349%，包括LV、迪奥、Celine3,046），），中信建投证券 各地区之间表现分化主要系宏观经济差异所致，其中：1）日本市场仍表现最优、但增速有所放缓，致消费外流以及高端消费疲软导致；3）美洲市场Q3表现基本平稳，其中顶奢品牌表现最优、增速主要公司CY22Q1CY22Q2CY22Q3CY22Q4CY23Q1CY23Q2CY23Q3CY23Q4CY24Q1CY24Q2CY24Q3LVMH8.0%-8.0%6.0%-8.0%14.0%34.0%11.0%15.0%-6.0%-14.0%-16.0%爱马仕19.8%9.6%33.7%24.7%22.5%33.7%10.2%12.3%13.9%5.5%1.0%历峰集团8.0%-16.0%6.0%-9.0%25.0%40.0%8.0%13.0%-12.0%-18.0%开云0.0%-15.0%7.0%-19.0%10.0%16.0%1.0%8.0%-19.0%-25.0%-30.0%Prada22.4%28.0%13.5%32.1%15.7%8.3%12.0%4.8%0.4%3.9%2.9%4.5%6.3%4.9%5.2%5.3%4.7%30.0%37.0%30.0%29.0%34.0%29.0%30.0%20.0%32.0%57.0%20.0%17.4%23.4%22.7%15.7%26.1%25.9%24.1%26.2%25.2%19.5%22.8%23.0%90.0%64.0%43.0%36.0%14.0%12.0%18.0%41.0%59.0%20.0%45.0%31.0%14.0%30.0%28.0%28.0%13.0%16.0%27.0%3.0%55.1%44.0%42.2%37.6%45.6%64.6%47.9%0.7%1.7%1.7%0.7%2.6%2.2%1.5%1.0%-0.7%7.0%18.1%-1.0%-10.0%6.4%2.0%14.5%7.0%-9.0%18.1%4.0%7.0%18.1%-1.0%-10.0%6.4%2.0%14.5%7.0%-9.0%18.1%4.0%18.2%5.0%-8.0%18.6%45.0%42.2%43.0%75.0%48.0%32.1%57.0%94.0%36.0%11.7%36.0%74.0%22.0%12.2%19.0%16.0%5.0%18.6%-3.0%-8.0%7.5%19.0%21.3%11.0%4.0%22.0%2.0%17.4%-11.0%17.6%26.0%22.0%11.0%7.0%8.0%-1.0%2.0%8.0%2.0%2.0%0.0%44.2%26.3%18.1%40.8%19.2%20.5%20.4%21.6%11.8%13.3%13.4%46.0%29.0%14.0%3.0%12.0%-2.0%4.0%8.0%12.0%10.0%42.0%8.0%1.0%-15.0%-18.0%-23.0%-21.0%-11.0%-11.0%-11.0%-15.0%4.9%-6.0%-1.8%3.8%5.0%8.9%10.0%-16.0%中信建投证券CHINAS中信建投证券CHINASECURITIES 主要系大部分品牌在过去连续提价对于顾客消费力有所透支，顶奢类品牌韧性强；2）珠宝品类保持主要公司CY22Q1CY22Q2CY22Q3CY22Q4CY23Q1CY23Q2CY23Q3CY23Q4CY24Q1CY24Q2CY24Q3时装与皮具30.0%22.0%21.0%9.0%9.0%2.0%-5.0%爱马仕-核心皮具8.5%25.3%23.2%20.3%爱马仕-成衣44.1%29.0%42.0%29.7%34.4%35.1%27.5%珠宝和手表3.0%3.0%3.0%-2.0%-4.0%-4.0%爱马仕-珠宝和家居37.4%27.8%27.1%27.4%28.3%36.1%24.4%24.5%爱马仕-腕表62.0%48.9%55.2%21.4%24.6%24.2%22.0%22.0%4.3%-4.9%历峰-珠宝25.0%21.0%8.0%27.0%24.0%9.0%3.0%4.0%历峰-手表41.0%-5.0%-4.0%3.0%-1.0%-13.0%美妆等8.0%5.0%9.0%7.0%4.0%3.0%爱马仕-香水化妆品28.9%7.4%7.4%6.8%6.3%22.2%4.3%5.6%,将FY25Q1对应为CY24Q1，下同。中信建投证券 公司CY22Q1CY22Q2CY22Q3CY23Q1开云集团yoyyoybottegavenetayoyyoy二、MiuMiuyoy三、Church’syoy中信建投证券 本周地产&家居数据：新房销售面积：本周(10.26-11.1）33个城市新房共成交347.89万平，同比+14.87%、上周为-11.19%；环比+23.91%、上周为-6.86%；本周（10.26-11.1）北上广深新房成交18.4、49.5、32.2、18.95万平，同比+21.4%、+134.4%、+95.3%、+182.9%；环比+16.7%、+164.7%、+14.6%、+36.3%。10月，33个城市新房共成交1100.2万方，环比+38.6%（上月-6.0%）、同比+1.4%（上月同比为-24.2%）。二手房销售面积：本周（10.26-11.1）16个城市二手房共成交223.40万平，同比+24.88%、上周为+14.11%；环比+4.14%、上周为-5.09%；本周（10.26-11.1），北京、深圳二手房成交5323、1833套，同比+75.62%、+171.56%,环比+10.48%、+3.33%。10月，16个重点跟踪城市二手房共成交761.4万平方，环比25.2%（上月为-13.8%）、同比+24.8%（上月为+6.0%）。9月部分家居公司接单降幅环比有所收窄。截至11/1（周五1）浆价：阔叶浆均价为4576元/周环比-0.8%/年同比-14.9%，针叶浆均价为6220元/周环比+0.1%/年同比白卡纸均价为4146元/周环比+0.0%/年同比-16.0%，箱板纸均价为3615元/周环比+0.2%/年同比-6.3%。棉纺价格：根据中国棉花信息网数据，截至11月1日，国内棉花现货价格、国内棉花期货价格、进口棉花价格分别为15388、14090、14247元/吨，环比上周-0.8%、-0.1%、-0.3%，年同比-9.7%、-10.4%、-13.0%；国际棉花价格为82美分/磅，环比上周-1.9%，同比-10.5%；国内棉纱现货价格、国内棉纱期货价格分别为21670、19575元/吨，环比上周-0.3%、-0.9-9.5%。品牌服饰电商流水月度同比跟踪：根据久谦数据，9月，李宁（-14.7%）、安踏（+13.3%）、FILA（+4.0%）、特步（-23.2%）；耐克（-23.7%）、阿迪（+7.4%）；波司登（+106.5%）。黄金珠宝数据：金价：截止11月01日,COMEX黄金收盘价为2745.9美元/盎司，环比上周-0.54%、年同比+37.89%；SHFE黄金收盘价为629.72元/克，环比上周+0.80%、年同比+31.97%。印度培育钻石进出口：24年9月印度培育钻石毛坯进口额0.63亿美元/-25.6%、环比-47.0%；培育钻石裸钻出口金额1.1亿美元/-16.5%、环比+11.3%。中信建投证券CHINASECURITIES 24年9月我国出口当月同比+2.4%（8月为+8.7%），2年复合增速为-2.3%（8月为-0.3%）。其中家具、服装、鞋靴、纺织品当月同比分别为-12.3%、-7.0%、-3.4%、-14.1%，2年复合增速分别为-8.6%、-8.0%1）保温杯：Stanley品牌（相关公司：嘉益股份、哈尔斯）24年9月亚马逊美Q3累计同比+109%；Yeti品牌（相关公司：哈尔斯）24年9月亚马逊美国站月销量37万支，同比-4%（8月同比+同比+9%；Owala品牌（相关公司：哈尔斯）24年9月亚马逊美国站月销量44万支，同比+51%（8月同比+163%Q3累计同比+154%。2）办公椅：Sweetcrispy、Smug、Co+28%、-17%、+16%（8月同比分别为+2），Vasagle品牌（相关公司：致欧科技）24年9月亚马逊美国站、英国站、德国站、法国站月销售额同比+25%、+30%、+4%、+21%（8月同比分别为+56%、+35%、+38%、+29%Q3累计同比分别为+38%、+39%、+23%、+30%；Feandrea品牌（相关公司：致欧科技）24年9月Feandrea品牌亚马逊美国站、英国站、德国站、法国站月销售额同比+2%、+45%、-43%、-16%（8月同比分别为+6%、+44%、-40%、-21%Q3累计同比分别为+16%、+54%、-35%、-11%。），中信建投证券CHINASECURITIES 本周涨跌幅（2024.10.25-11.1）近30日涨跌幅（2024.10.1-2024.11.1）涨幅前10名跌幅前10名涨幅前10名跌幅前10名沪江材料152.9%-27.9%青岛金王275.6%思考乐教育-29.6%豆神教育130.6%方大新材-25.1%沪江材料269.4%海澜之家-26.0%佳合科技81.8%安奈儿-18.3%松发股份214.0%东方甄选-25.8%*ST开元75.2%万里马-16.8%豆神教育204.8%-25.8%青岛金王61.2%老凤祥-14.8%*ST开元120.0%老凤祥-24.0%松发股份61.1%茶花股份-14.4%佳合科技95.6%学大教育-23.2%瑞贝卡32.1%科德教育-13.7%瑞贝卡83.5%-22.6%ST东时26.6%开润股份-13.4%美之高64.7%科思股份-22.1%江南高纤26.5%亚振家居-12.4%集友股份61.8%-22.0%丰林集团25.9%水羊股份-11.7%55.7%高途集团-21.8%中信建投证券CHINASECURITIES 目录CONTENTS·第一章地产及家居行业—地产、家居内销订单月度跟踪第二章造纸行业—浆价、纸价周度跟踪第三章纺服行业—品牌服饰电商月度、棉价周度、海外品牌季度跟踪第四章黄金钻石—金价周度跟踪、培育钻石印度进出口数据月度跟踪第五章出口链—中国出口、越南出口数据月度跟踪第六章医美—NMPA认证注射类医美产品跟踪中信建投证券CHINASECURITIES33城新房销售面积周度数据（万平）一20242023202220214000二线城市（12城）新房销售面积周度数据（万平）450400一线城市（4城）新房销售面积周度数据（万平）一2024202320222021400三线城市（17城）新房销售面积周度数据（万平）200中信建投证券CHINASECURITIES 40016城二手房销售面积周度数据（万平）一2024一20232022二线城市（8城）二手房销售面积周度数据（万平）一线城市（2城）二手房销售面积周度数据（万平）40200三线城市（6城）二手房销售面积周度数据（万平）2024一20232022202145405中信建投证券CHINASECURITIES 北京新房销售面积周度数据（万平）4004025205040040252050深圳新房销售面积周度数据（万平）一202420232022202140500上海新房销售面积周度数据（万平）4月7日广州新房销售面积周度数据（万平）一2024202320222021中信建投证券CHINASECURITIES 北京二手房销售套数周度数据（套）一2024一2023202220210深圳二手房销售套数周度数据（套）一2024一202320222021中信建投证券CHINASECURITIES 33城新房月度成交面积（万平米）450400045040000一线城市（4城）新房月度成交面积（万平米）二线城市（12城）新房月度成交面积（万平米）二线城市（12城）4000三线城市（17城）新房月度成交面积（万平米）4000中信建投证券CHINASECURITIES 16城二手房月度成交面积（万平米）4000二线城市（8城）二手房月度成交面积（万平米）4000一线城市（2城）二手房月度成交面积（万平米）一20182019202020212022202320240三线城市（6城）二手房月度成交面积（万平米）一2018一20192020202120222023一202440200中信建投证券CHINASECURITIES 分类房地产销售、投资、土地数据当月同比（%）2024-092024-082024-072024-062024-052024-042024-032024-022023-122023-112023-102023-09商品房销售面积-11.0-12.6-15.4-14.5-20.7-22.8-18.3-20.5-12.7-10.3-10.9-10.1商品房销售面积：住宅-10.6-14.0-14.5-15.7-22.8-25.1-21.9-24.8-16.1-12.9-12.0-11.7销售商品房销售额70个大中城市新建商品住宅价格指数-16.3-17.2-18.5-14.3-26.4-30.4-25.9-29.3-17.1-8.6-8.1-13.5-6.1-5.7-5.3-4.9-3.5-2.7-1.9-1.2-0.9-0.7-0.6-0.670个大中城市新建商品住宅价格指数:一线城市-4.7-4.2-4.2-3.7-2.5-1.5-1.0-0.5-0.770个大中城市新建商品住宅价格指数:二线城市-5.7-5.3-4.8-4.5-2.9-2.0-1.1-0.30.270个大中城市新建商品住宅价格指数:三线城市-6.6-6.2-5.8-5.4-4.2-3.4-2.7-2.1-1.8-1.6-1.5-1.4销售均价(元/平米）9,4579,9079,94310,17210,28210,1939,5499,29410,06910,28610,32910,054房屋新开工面积-19.9-16.7-19.7-21.7-22.7-14.0-25.4-29.7-10.34.9-21.1-14.6建设投资房地产开发投资百城土地成交建面-9.4-10.2-10.8-10.1-11.0-10.5-10.1-9.0-12.5-10.6-11.3-11.321.57.7-24.4-33.3-0.9-16.34.8-5.7-37.8-5.5-35.5百城土地成交总价：一线城市-19.2-43.8-52.8-65.533.90.034.3199.369.5-63.270.9-75.2百城土地成交总价：二线城市-31.5-32.020.8-31.7-74.3-0.4-39.0212.128.5-17.8-18.6-34.5百城土地成交总价：三线城市9.52.9-36.2-51.0-46.8-16.7-22.2-12.6-6.1-40.4-11.6竣工房地产竣工面积-31.4-36.6-21.8-29.6-18.4-19.1-21.7-20.225.3房地产竣工面积：住宅-30.2-33.5-22.5-30.4-12.3-16.9-25.4-20.225.8分类房地产销售、新开工及投资数据累计同比增速2024-092024-082024-072024-062024-052024-042024-032024-022023-122023-112023-102023-09商品房销售面积-17.1-18.0-18.6-19.0-20.3-20.2-19.4-20.5-8.5-8.0-7.8-7.5销售商品房销售面积：住宅-19.2-20.4-21.1-21.9-23.6-23.8-23.4-24.8-8.2-7.3-6.8-6.3商品房销售额-22.7-23.6-24.3-25.0-27.9-28.3-27.6-29.3-6.5-5.2-4.9-4.6建设投资房屋新开工面积-22.2-22.5-23.2-23.7-24.2-24.6-27.8-29.7-20.4-21.2-23.2-23.4房地产开发投资-10.1-10.2-10.2-10.1-10.1-9.8-9.5-9.0-9.6-9.4-9.3-9.1竣工房地产竣工面积房地产竣工面积:住宅-24.4-23.6-21.8-21.8-20.1-20.4-20.7-20.2-23.9-23.2-21.8-21.7-19.8-21.0-21.9-20.220.1分类房地产销售、新开工投资单月数据（百万平方米）2024-092024-082024-072024-062024-052024-042024-032024-022023-122023-112023-102023-09商品房单月销售面积96.864.562.3112.773.965.8113.0113.7112.379.378.0108.8销售商品房单月销售面积:住宅79.854.152.993.762.455.793.895.688.365.866.389.2商品房单月销售额（亿元）91.663.962.0114.776.067.1107.9105.7113.081.680.5109.4竣工房地产单月竣工面积房地产单月竣工面积：住宅34.224.833.825.335.026.142.730.633.824.536.026.048.634.5103.976.9345.9248.5100.975.064.547.749.935.5建设投资房屋新开工单月面积房地产开发投资单月（百亿元）65.994.057.379.3119.065.897.062.388.578.5102.494.3118.479.268.782.881.271.384.082.2103.7中信建投证券 400000百强房企操盘累计金额（亿元）及增速合计累计同比增长（%）2021年1-3月2021年1-5月2021年1-7月2021年1-9月2021年1-11月22年1月2022年1-3月2022年1-5月2022年1-7月2022年1-9月2022年1-11月2023年1-月2023年1-3月2023年1-5月2023年1-7月2023年1-9月2023年1-11月2024年1月2024年1-3月2024年1-5月2024年1-7月2024年1-9月百强房企操盘口径单月销售金额（亿元）0%02024202420242024202420242023202320232023202320232022202220222022202220222021202120212021202120210%0中信建投证券CHI中信建投证券CHINASECURITES S002023202220212020201920182017201620152014201320122011201020232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010房屋新开工面积:住宅（万平米）y202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102023202220212020201920182017201620152014201320122011201000.2023202220212020201920182017201620152014201320122011201020232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010房地产开发投资完成额:住宅（亿元）yoy202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102023202220212020201920182017201620152014201320122011201040%中信建投证券CHINASECURITIES 图表：全国家具累计零售额及同比（亿元，%）图表：全国家具当月零售额及同比（亿元，%）04000040200图表：建材家居卖场累计销售额与同比（亿元，%）图表：建材家居卖场当月销售额与同比（亿元，%）销售额:建材家居卖场:累计值销售额:建4,0002,0000400中信建投证券CHINASECURITIES投 2019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092022-012022-052022-092023-012019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-092024-012024-052024-0912,000.0010,000.000.00 当月同比（%）24M924CAGR(M9)24M824M724M62全国居民消费价格（CPI）其中：商品零售其中：餐饮收入5限额以上企业消费品零售总额粮油食品类饮料类烟酒类纺织服装类化妆品类金银珠宝类家用电器和音像器材类文化办公用品类家具类通讯器材类石油及制品类汽车类建筑及装潢材料类中信建投证券数据来源：国家统计局，中信建投CHINASECURITIES 目录CONTENTS·第一章地产及家居行业—地产、家居内销订单月度跟踪第二章造纸行业—浆价、纸价周度跟踪第三章纺服行业—品牌服饰电商月度、棉价周度、海外品牌季度跟踪第四章黄金钻石—金价周度跟踪、培育钻石印度进出口数据月度跟踪第五章出口链—中国出口、越南出口数据月度跟踪第六章医美—NMPA认证注射类医美产品跟踪中信建投证券CHINASECURITIES中信建投证券CHINASECURITIES投400 中国阔叶浆日度均价（元/吨）中信建投证券CHINASECURTIES数据来源：卓创资讯，中信建投 目录CONTENTS·第一章地产及家居行业—地产、家居内销订单月度跟踪第二章造纸行业—浆价、纸价周度跟踪第三章纺服行业—品牌服饰电商月度、棉价周度、海外品牌季度跟踪第四章黄金钻石—金价周度跟踪、培育钻石印度进出口数据月度跟踪第五章出口链—中国出口、越南出口数据月度跟踪第六章医美—NMPA认证注射类医美产品跟踪中信建投证券CHINASECURITIES400进口棉价格指数(FCIndex):M:1%配额港口提货价:前一中信建投证券CHINASECURITIES 40004504002502000中信建投证券CHINASECURITIES 财报期自然年截止日公司财报期自然年截止日公司FY25指引1QFY254QFY243QFY242QFY241QFY244QFY233QFY232QFY231QFY232025/5/312024/8/312024/5/312024/2/292023/11/302023/8/312023/5/312023/2/282022/11/302022/8/31Nike收入（亿美元）yoy存货yoy撤回全年指引（前次指引FY25中单位数下降），Q2下滑8-10%133.217.2%43.3%133.217.2%43.3%126.93.6%44.2%115.9126.1124.3133.9129.4128.3123.9-1.7%0.3%0.6%2.0%4.9%14.0%-5.1%0.4%15.6%公司财报期自然年截止日FY24指引2024/12/313QFY242QFY241QFY244QFY233QFY232QFY231QFY234QFY223QFY222024/9/302024/6/302024/3/312023/12/312023/9/302023/6/302023/3/312022/12/312022/9/30财报期自然年截止日公司Adidas财报期自然年截止日公司收入（亿欧元）yoy存货yoyFY24指引FY24指引2025/1/2852.051.3%49.0%52.051.3%49.0%64.111.4%72.4%64.458.254.648.160.053.452.77.3%9.0%3.5%-7.6%-6.4%-4.5%-0.5%-6.7%1.0%24.9%2QFY241QFY244QFY233QFY232QFY231QFY234QFY223QFY222024/7282024/4/282024/1/282023/10/292023/7/302023/4/302023/1/292022/10/30lululemon收入（亿美元）yoy存货yoy103.75~104.75增长8%~9%(下调）23.77.3%22.010.0%32.115.6%-8.6%22.018.7%22.018.7%-4.5%18.2%13.6%20.024.1%23.9%27.730.2%49.8%18.628.0%84.5%总收入（亿美元）yoy存货yoy其中：HOKAyoy其中：总收入（亿美元）yoy存货yoy其中：HOKAyoy其中：UGGyoyDeckers财报期自然年截止日公司财报期自然年截止日FY25指引2QFY251QFY254QFY243QFY242QFY241QFY244QFY233QFY232QFY232025/3/312024/9/302024/6/302024/3/312023/12/312023/9/302023/6/302023/3/312022/12/312022/9/3047.0增长12%（上调）增长20%中单位数47.0增长12%（上调）增长20%中单位数FY24指引2024/12/315.613.58.820.1%22.1%21.2%15.9%23.7%10.0%7.5%13.3%21.3%7.1%1.7%5.1%31.3%45.4%4.03.53.334.7%29.7%34.0%21.9%27.3%27.4%42.0%90.8%58.3%13.0%14.0%14.9%15.2%28.1%-6.0%1.6%6.3%2QFY241QFY244QFY233QFY232QFY231QFY234QFY223QFY222024/6/302024/3/312023/12/312023/9/302023/6/302023/3/312022/12/312022/9/30收入（亿瑞士法郎）5.75.14.54.84.44.23.673.28yoy存货yoy增长30%+（维持）27.8%-7.9%21.0%21.9%-9.9%46.5%61.7%52.3%101.1%78.0%186.4%92.1%194.8%50.5%80.6%公司财报期自然年截止日FY25指引2QFY251QFY254QFY243QFY242QFY241QFY244QFY233QFY232QFY232025/3/302024/9/302024/6/302024/3/302023/12/312023/9/302023/7/12023/4/32023/1/12022/10/1收入（亿美元）VFyoy财报期自然年截止日公司存货yoy财报期自然年截止日公司FY25指引FY25指引2025/8/3127.6-5.5%19.1-8.6%23.729.630.3-1.5%-9.8%20.86336-7.7%19.0%27.4-3.2%61.6%35.3-2.6%101.4%30.8-3.7%87.7%公司财报期自然年截止日FY24指引2024/12/312QFY242024/6/301QFY242024/3/314QFY232023/12/313QFY232023/9/302QFY232023/6/301QFY232023/3/314QFY222022/12/313QFY2223.5收入（亿欧元）-21.221.019.823.121.20621.922.0yoy中单位数（维持）存货yoy-0.2%-8.6%-3.9%-9.8%-1.8%5.9%8.1%14.4%32.7%24.3%16.9%公司财报期FY25指引1QFY254QFY243QFY242QFY241QFY244QFY233QFY232QFY23自然年截止日2025/3/312024/6/302024/3/312023/12/312023/9/302023/6/302023/3/312022/12/312022/9/30收入（亿美元）低双位数下降11.813.314.915.713.214.015.815.7UAyoy-4.8%-6.1%-0.5%-2.4%7.7%3.4%1.8%存货yoy-9.3%5.9%38.4%43.8%4QFY243QFY242QFY241QFY244QFY233QFY232QFY231QFY234QFY222024/8/312024/5/312024/2/292023/11/302023/8/312023/5/312023/2/282022/11/302022/8/31收入（亿美元）51.249.552.755.343.653.755.151.739.0迅销（优衣库母公司）yoy增长9.5%18.4%13.3%4.7%13.3%16.2%23.8%7.2%13.9%23.3%存货yoy5.6%4.5%-5.3%-7.5%10.1%24.9%40.8%23.1%公司财报期FY24指引2QFY241QFY244QFY233QFY232QFY231QFY234QFY223QFY22自然年截止日2024/12/312024/6/302024/3/312023/12/312023/9/302023/6/302023/3/312022/12/312022/9/30收入（亿美元）10.611.68.710.69.6ASICS22.0%-9.0%14.3%48.4%69.4%22.4%55.3%ASICS22.0%-9.0%14.3%48.4%69.4%22.4%55.3%0.7%44.6%34.4%14.5%-0.2%15.1%24.5%yoy存货yoy中信建投证券CHI中信建投证券CHINASECURITIES分地区看：2024Q3Adidas、Deckers、VF、优衣库表现优秀，Nike调整中地区主要公司/品牌CY24Q3CY24Q2CY24Q1CY23Q4CY23Q3CY23Q2CY23Q1CY22Q4CY22Q3北美Nike（北美)Adidas（北美）Deckers（美国，报表口径增速）Lululemon（北美）ON（北美，报表口径增速）VF（北美）UA（北美）Puma（北美）优衣库（北美）Asics（北美，报表口径增速） 23% 25% 41% 19% 22% 29%16% 18% 22% 3%6%8%Nike（大中华区)Adidas（大中华区）大中华区Lululemon（中国大陆）VF（大中华区）优衣库（大中华区，报表口径增速）Asics（大中华区，报表口径增速）Nike（APLA，除中国)Adidas（日韩）ON（亚太，报表口径增速）亚太VF（APAC）Puma（亚太）优衣库（日本）Asics（日本）Nike（EMEA)Adidas（欧洲）ON（EMEA，报表口径增速）欧洲VF（EMEA）Puma（EMEA）优衣库（欧洲）Asics（欧洲，报表口径增速）中信建投证券CHINASECURITIES 332232342212.21--332232342212.21--品牌服饰全网销售月度跟踪（天猫+京东+抖音）-2024.09【建投轻工纺服教育】单月GMVyoy安踏李宁斐乐迪桑特始祖鸟特步国际361度耐克阿迪达斯彪马安德玛露露乐蒙波司登太平鸟海澜之家单月GMVyoy2024-0913.3%-14.7%4.0%122.5%122.5%204.9%-23.2%1.4%-23.7%7.4%23.4%8.6%.3%106.5%-2.5%8.2%61.4%2024-0810.4%20.2%130.0%151.9%151.9%-1.6%4.2%3.8%11.4%23.3%12.6%8.8%24.6%-4.2%10.1%20.7%2024-07-5.3%6.6%5%151.6%151.6%4.8%-7.1% 5.6%15.1%11.4%-10.2%6.4%82.7%-24.5%9.4%3.0%2024-06-1.1%-4.6%-0.9%.8%20.5%-4.2% 6.3%16.5%-13.6%-30.7%5.0%70.8%-15.3%20.0%-0.5%2024-053.5%-6.1%22.8%133.2%28.2%7.1%24.3%10.7%-5.5%11.8%6%89.3%5.5%57.6%18.1%2024-044.6%14.2%.3%247.0%18.4%22.6%19.3%.8%-4.8%-8.0%126.1%126.1%54.6%56.6%9.9%2024-03 12.0%-6.1%10.3%5353.1%-4.2%1.8%9.0%-3.9%-10.8%2.6%26.3%76.0%-25.9%22.8%10.0%2024-02-7.1%-5.5%8.5%.3%.4%-8.3%1.6%23.5%-5.0%-13.2%52.0%-33.6%41.6%-9.4%2024-0145.9%5.9%11.8%8.9%4.4%16.2%29.9%9.2%-23.2%-8.4%-20.8%1%3.2%-13.1%49.1%-17.1%2023-129.5%-5.6%2.2%4.1%7.0%-9.8%0.7%1.2%-20.8%-15.5%-29.5%4%10.4%-30.3%37.1%-31.0%2023-11-1.4%-4.1%15.0%7%24.8%-13.1%-6.2%6.5%7.8%-6.7%-20.8%0.1%81.2%-22.8%48.6%9.2%2023-10-6.2%-16.5%8.1%25.8%6.0%-8.0% 13.0% 26.8%-15.8%-10.5%-16.3%3.3%-11.8%-51.6%55.0%-16.6%2023-09-5.8%11.4%0.8%.1%.6%0.1%26.9%6.3%-1.8%6.5%12.3%8.8%9.0%-12.1%31.5%1.4%2023-089.9%-14.7%6.8%.8%2%6.1%24.4%5959.8%-10.6%13.7%.8%35.9%-23.6%56.6%-17.1%2023-07-3.9%-2.8%19.8%91.5%31.9%-19.4%23.2%5252.2%-0.4%0.9%31.3%2.6%37.0%15.1%24.8%-1.8%2023-06-24.2%-16.5%-4.1%-2.4%-14.1%-17.5% 12.1%2.6%-47.8%11.5%-9.4%0.8%-23.7%48.4%0.0%2023-05 4.7%.5%.1%.9%-17.7%27.7%%-6.4%.6%9%%99.2%4.5%40.8%34.7%2023-04-5.8%-7.2%3.6%.1%140.0%-3.5%2.7%54.7%-25.5%.9%9%.5%207.5%-37.9%36.1%60.3%2023-03-7.8%0.5%3.0%.2%3.2%19.3%7.8%48.5%-13.4%.1%5.0%8.3%76.3%-11.8%37.9%-29.0%累计GMVyoy安踏李宁斐乐迪桑特始祖鸟特步国际361度耐克阿迪达斯彪马安德玛露露乐蒙波司登太平鸟海澜之家累计GMVyoy2024-09-2.1%147.2%5.7% 8.6%14.4%10.1%0.8%-3.7%.5%6%6%2%1%1%9.4%2024-08-0.3%138.3%9.9%9.5%18.8%10.5%-1.1%-8.1%.8%4%4%.0%6%6%3.5%2024-07-1.8%86.1%86.1%135.9%11.7%10.3%16.7%10.3%-3.6%-10.2%.0%8%8%.7%2%2%2.2%2024-06-1.2%84.5%84.5%134.0%12.8%13.4%18.2%9.7%-4.7%-10.2%.9%7%5%3%3%2.1%2024-05-0.3%3.3%85.3%85.3%127.7% 10.6% 19.0%2.5%7.9%-2.2%-1.5%8%6%9%7%2.8%2024-041.6%1.9%3.5%70.4%5.3%13.1%1.7%7.0%-1.4%-6.6%.6%7%.6%2%7%2024-03-2.3%l10.5%.9%0.6%9.0%2.5%-4.8%-8.7%-7.3%%3%-23-23.2%8%8%9%2024-020.2%0.5% 10.6% .8%.2%4.7%15.3% 32.2%-5.5%-6.8%-17.7% 142.2% 5%-22-22.0%6%.1%2024-01 .9%5.9%11.8%8.9%.4%16.2%9.9%.2%-23.2%-8.4%-20.8%2%.1%1%.1%2023-12-5.1%-7.1%9.1%.6%.0%-9.0%0.4%.2%-17.9%12.0%8.9%3%6%6%-23-23.1%2%2%..9%2023-11-6.2%-7.2%1.4%.0%.7%-8.9%19.0%.0%-17.6%15.2%12.5%.8%2%-22-22.2%7%7%-55%2023-10-7.0%-7.7%2.8%.6%.8%-8.3%4.0%.6%-22.3%0.6%.0%2%-22-22.1%3%3%..5%2023-09-7.2%-6.1%1.7%.8%.2%-8.3%5.5%.6%-23.2%7.2%7.1%.8%5%-17-17.5%9%9%8%2023-08-7.3%-8.2%9.7%.5%.0%-9.4%5.3%.1%-25.2%9.3%8.8%7%7%.1%5%5%7%2023-07-9.4%-7.3%1.5%.5%.5%-11.4%5.4%.9%-26.8%9.3%0.6%4%6%-17-17.4%6%6%9%2023-06-10.0%-8.0%1.7%.5%.6%-9.9%5.8%.3%-29.2%2.0%0.6%4%2%-21-21.0%0%0%4%2023-05-4.9%-5.2% 33.3% 54.0%%-7.5%0.9% 56.3%-21.5%.3%7%1%0%-20-20.4%0%0%2%2023-04--16.7%--13.7%7%1.1%-3.8%%%-25-25.4%%1.2%1.2%.8%.8%-2-25.6%.7%-1-17.1%2023-03-20-20.3%-15-15.7%.1%2.2%2.2%2.2%4.0%7.8%7.8%%-25.4%7.3%7.3%%1%.3%.3%-2-22.6% .1%1.9%中信建投证券 目录CONTENTS·第一章地产及家居行业—地产、家居内销订单月度跟踪第二章造纸行业—浆价、纸价周度跟踪第三章纺服行业—品牌服饰电商月度、棉价周度、海外品牌季度跟踪第四章黄金钻石—金价周度跟踪、培育钻石印度进出口数据月度跟踪第五章出口链—中国出口、越南出口数据月度跟踪第六章医美—NMPA认证注射类医美产品跟踪中信建投证券CHINASECURITIES.3-1.02-0.6%--3.0592.3-1.02-0.6%--3.0592时间印度培育钻石毛坯进口额（亿美环比印度天然钻石毛坯进口金额（亿美元）培育钻石占钻石品类比重印度培育钻石裸钻出口金额（亿美元）环比印度天然钻石裸钻出口金额（亿美元）培育钻石占钻石品类比重2024年1-9月8.11-2.2%99.046%6%7.9.75 -6.7%109.128.2%2024年9月0.63-25.6%-47-47.0%7.791.11-16.5% 3%12.917.9%7.9%2024年8月1.19-12.0%9.0%6.7215.0%15.0%1.00-15.3%5.2%10.378.8%8.8%2024年7月0.86-26.7% 5%9.13 8.6%0.95-10.2%6.6%9.089.4%9.4%2024年6月0.63-21.0%9.0%10.04.9%.9%0.89-9.0%-26.1%10.188.0%8.0%2024年5月0.6918.3%7.3%11.985.4%5.4%1.20-13.7%.4%14.727.5%7.5%2024年4月0.59-1.8%--32.4%11.914.7%0.84-18.2%.3%11.556.8%6.8%2024年3月0.87-12.4%--31.5%13.93.9%.9%1.2411.0%-11.0%11.649.6%9.6%2024年2月1.27100.3%8.9%15.894%7.4%7.1.392.9%17.077.5%7.5%2024年1月1.395.3%2.3%11.6510.7%10.7%1.1410.3%.3%11.61 8.9% 2023年12月1.3622.2%17.0%13.109.4%9.4%0.84-18.5%-23.2%8.62 8.8% 2023年11月0.63-18.8%-29.7%3.1416.6%16.6%1.093.2%-20.3%11.009.0%2023年10月0.8962.4%5.2%10.191.36-23.7%7%12.619.8%9.8%2023年9月0.85-23.1%--7.3%10.336%6%1.33-25.3%12.9%12.9%16.747.4%2023年8月1.3519.8%5.7%13.173%9.3%9.1.18-17.8%11.5%11.5%13.608.0%8.0%2023年7月1.17-15.3%47.2%11.03 9.6% 1.05-28.4%11.748.2%8.2%2023年6月0.79-46.4%6.3%13.665.5%0.98-34.9%-29-29.9%13.826.6%6.6%2023年5月0.58-46.9%2.6%11.684.8%1.39-21.5%17.237.5%7.5%2023年4月0.60-40.3%--39.7%14.753.9%1.02-30.8%.1%13.876.9%6.9%2023年3月0.99-51.1%6.6%6.6%16.525.7%1.11-18.7%-17-17.6%16.056.5%6.5%2023年2月0.63-59.1%-52.1%16.883.6%1.357.3%23.69 5.4% 2023年1月1.32-13.7%8.7%8.1713.9%13.9%1.03-15.4%0.8%14.456.7%6.7%2022年12月1.11-15.5%44.2%4.2%15.25.8%.8%.8%12.707.5%7.5%2022年11月0.77-14.0%4 0.6%13.305.5%1.0522.6%1 1 .0%12.487.8%2022年10月0.55-46.5%-50.2%9.335.6%1.7922.4%0.5%18.798.6%8.6%2022年9月1.108.3%2.2%15.56.6%.6%1.7885.2% .7 .7%21.357.7%7.7%2022年8月1.1354.0%18.2%13.624% 7.4% 1.4314.5%.4%18.827.1%7.1%2022年7月1.3825.4%6.9%19.53.6%.6%1.4736.5%.3%19.337.1%7.1%2022年6月1.4847.4% 5.0%18.067%7%1.5057.8%51-51-.8%20.176.9%6.9%2022年5月1.1046.0%.6%14.33.1%7.1%71.77136.4% 20.897.8%2022年4月1.0025.1%-0.6%13.11.1%7.1%71.4864.4%%21.606.4%6.4%2022年3月2.0310%20.3759.3%%21.995.9%5.9%2022年2月1.5584.4%1.0%20.62.0%.0%1.26113.6%3.%19.796.0%6.0%2022年1月1.5377.3%6.2%12.14 11.2% 1.2269.4% .1%20.505.6%5.6%中信建投证券CHINASECURITIES2,8002,6002,8002,6002,4002,2002,000SHFE黄金收盘价（单位：元/克）450400200中信建投证券CHINASECURITIES CY23Q1CY23Q2CY23Q3CY23Q4CY24Q1CY24Q2CY24Q349%，包括LV、迪奥、Celine