BCG -利用组织学习和人工智能管理不确定性 Learning to Manage Uncertainty With AI

Incollaborationwith

MITsloanManagementReview

〉BIGIDEAS

November2024

Learning

toManage

Uncertainty,WithAI

bySamRansbotham,DavidKiron,ShervinKhodabandeh,MichaelChu,andLeonidZhukhov

AUTHORS

SamRansbotham

isaprofessorofanalyticsattheCarrollSchoolofManagementatBostonCollege,aswellasguesteditorforMITSloanManagementReview’sArtificialIntelligenceandBusinessStrategyBigIdeasinitiative.

DavidKironistheeditorialdirector,research,ofMITSloanManagementReviewandprogramleadforitsBigIdeasresearchinitiatives.

ShervinKhodabandehisaseniorpartnerandmanagingdirectoratBostonConsultingGroup(BCG)andthecoleaderofitsAIbusiness

inNorthAmerica.HeisaleaderinBCGX

andhasover20yearsofexperiencedriving

businessimpactfromAIanddigital.Hecanbecontactedat

shervin@

.

MichaelChuisavicepresidentofdatascienceatBCG,wherehefocusesonapplyingAIandmachinelearningtobusinessproblemsin

commercialfunctions,includingoptimizingpricing,promotions,sales,andmarketing.Hecanbereachedat

chu.michael@

.

LeonidZhukhovisavicepresidentofdatascienceatBCGandleadstheTech&Biz

LabattheBCGHendersonInstitute.He

leadsthedesignandbuildofAIandmachinelearningsolutionsforBCGclientsacross

arangeofsectors.Hecanbereachedat

zhukov.leonid@

.

CONTRIBUTORS

FrançoisCandelon,ToddFitz,KevinFoley,SarahJohnson,MicheleLeeDeFilippo,MeenalPore,NamrataRajagopal,AllisonRyder,BarbaraSpindel,andDavidZuluagaMartínez

TheresearchandanalysisforthisreportwasconductedunderthedirectionoftheauthorsaspartofanMITSloanManagementReviewresearchinitiativeincollaborationwithandsponsoredbyBostonConsultingGroup.

Tocitethisreport,pleaseuse:

S.Ransbotham,D.Kiron,S.Khodabandeh,M.Chu,andL.Zhukov,“LearningtoManageUncertainty,WithAI,”MITSloanManagementReviewandBostonConsultingGroup,November2024.

SUPPORTINGSPONSORS

BCG

HENDERSONINSTITUTE

BCG》《

Copyright©MassachusettsInstituteofTechnology,2024.Allrightsreserved.REPRINT#:66262

CONTENTS

1

UncertaintyAbounds

2

CombiningOrganizationalLearningandAI-specific

LearningLeadstoAugmentedLearning

4

AugmentedLearnersAreBetterPreparedfor

ManyTypesofUncertainty

8

ThreeWaystoEnhanceOrganizational

LearningWithAI

11

DevelopingAugmentedLearningCapabilities

13

LearningWithAIIsKeytoNavigatingUncertainty

14

Appendix:TheStateofAIinBusiness

UncertaintyAbounds

Uncertaintyisallabouttheunknown.Thelessanorgani-zationknows,thegreateritsuncertaintyandthelessableitistomanageresourceseffectively.Managinguncertainty,therefore,requireslearning.Companiesneedtolearnmore,andmorequickly,tomanageuncertainty.

Addressinguncertaintyconstitutesapressingchallengeforleadership,especiallytoday,whengeopoliticaltensions,fast-movingconsumerpreferences,talentdisruptions,shiftingregulations,andrapidlyevolvingtechnologiescomplicatethebusinessenvironment.Companiesneedbettertoolsandperspectivesforlearningtomanageuncertaintyarisingfromtheseandotherbusinessdisrup-tions.Ourresearchfindsthatamajorsourceofuncertainty,artificialintelligence,isalsocriticaltomeetingthischal-lenge.Specifically:

CompaniesthatboosttheirlearningcapabilitieswithAIaresignificantlybetterequippedtohandleuncertaintyfromtechnological,regulatory,andtalent-relateddis-ruptionscomparedwithcompaniesthathavelimitedlearningcapabilities.

TheEstéeLauderCompanies(ELC)offersacaseinpoint.Thecosmeticscompanyhasastrategicneedtoanticipateconsumertrendsaheadofitscompetitors.Inearliertimes,consumerpreferencesmighthaveshiftedseasonally.Now,preferencesarelesscertain;shiftshappenmorequicklyduetosocialmediaanddigitalinfluencers.Fashiontrendscanchangebytheweek.Ifthecolorpeachsuddenlycapturesthepublic’sinterest,thecompanyneedstodiscernthattrendasquicklyaspossible.ItusesAItodetectandrap-idlyrespondtoconsumertrends.SowmyaGottipati,vicepresidentofglobalsupplychaintechnologyatELC,reportsthatthecompany,whichcarriesproductsacrossmorethan20brandsand“hundredsofdifferentshades,”usesfuzzymatchingtofigureoutwhichproductscanmeetthedemandanddelightconsumers.“WearelookingtoAItodiscoverconsumertrendsandthenmatchupourexistingproductstothetrendssothatwecanrepackagethemandpositiontheminthemarketforthattrend,”Gottipatiexplains.ELCusesAItodetectsuddenchangesandhaveamarketresponsereadysoitcanredeployinventoryandsupplychainpro-cessestomeetdemandefficiently.Companiescan’tcontrolthechangesbutcanuseAItomanagetheirresponses.

ELCisnotalone:Thecompanyisamongthe15%oforga-nizationsthatintegrateAIintotheirlearningcapabilities.Theseorganizations—whatwerefertoasAugmentedLearners—are1.6timesmorelikelythanthosewithlim-itedlearningcapabilitiestomanagevariousenvironmentalandcompany-specificuncertainties,includingunexpectedtechnological,regulatory,andworkforcechanges.Thesecompaniesaretwiceaslikelytobepreparedtomanagetalent-relateddisruptionscomparedwithorganizationsthathavelimitedlearningcapabilities.What’smore,theseorganizationsare60%-80%morelikelytobeeffectiveatmanaginguncertaintiesintheirexternalenvironmentsthanLimitedLearners—companieswithlimitedlearningcapabilities.Bydoingso,theyreapadvantageswithAIwellbeyonddirectfinancialbenefits.

Basedonaglobalsurveyof3,467respondentsandinter-viewswithnineexecutives,ourresearchquantitativelyandqualitativelyestablishesarelationshipbetweenorganiza-tionallearning,learningwithAI,andtheabilitytomanagerapidlychangingbusinessenvironments.Organizationallearningitselfhaslongbeenassociatedwithimprovedper-formance.IntegratingAIwithanorganization’slearningcapabilitiessignificantlyimprovescorporateresponsestouncertaintiesfromtalentmobility,newtechnology,andrelatedregulations.ThisreportdefinesanAI-enhancedorganizationallearningcapability(augmentedlearning),explainsitsuseinreducingtheconsiderableuncertaintymanagersfacetoday,andofferskeytakeawaysforexploit-ingthesenewabilities.

Companiesneedtolearnmore,andmorequickly,tomanageuncertainty.

1

LearningtoManageUncertainty,WithAI

ABOUTTHERESEARCH

Thisreportpresentsfindingsfromtheeighthannualglobalresearchstudyonartificialintelligenceandbusi-nessstrategybyMITSloanManagementReviewandBostonConsultingGroup.Inspring2024,wefieldedaglobalsurveyandsubsequentlyanalyzedrecordsfrom3,467respondentsrepresentingmorethan21industriesand136countries.WealsointerviewednineexecutivesleadingAIinitiativesinabroadrangeofcompaniesandindustries,includingfinancialservices,technology,retail,travelandtransportation,andhealthcare.

Ourresearchconnectsorganizationallearning,learningwithAI,andtheabilitytomanagerapidlychangingenviron-ments.ThisreportdefinesanAI-enhancedorganizationallearningcapability,explainsitsuseinreducingseveraltypesofuncertaintymanagersfacetoday,andofferskeyleader-shiptakeawaysforexploitingthesenewabilities.

Toassesswhetherorganizationshave“high”or“low”organizationalandAI-specificlearningcapabilities,weanalyzedsurveyresponsestothesestatementsusinganagree-disagreeLikertscale:

›Myorganizationlearnsthroughexperiments.(organi-zationallearning)

›Myorganizationtoleratesfailuresinexperiments.(organizationallearning)

›Myorganizationlearnsfrompostmortemsonbothsuccessfulandfailedprojects.(organizationallearning)

›Myorganizationcodifiesitslearningfrominitiatives.(organizationallearning)

›Myorganizationgathersandsharesinformationthatemployeeslearn.(organizationallearning)

›Myorganization’suseofAIleadstonewlearning.(AI-specificlearning)

›MyorganizationusesAItolearnfromperformance.(AI-specificlearning)

›MyorganizationbuildsAIsolutionswithhumanfeed-backloops.(AI-specificlearning)

›EmployeesinmyorganizationlearnfromAIsolutions.(AI-specificlearning)

Wethengroupedrespondentsintofourcategories:LimitedLearners,OrganizationalLearners,AI-specificLearners,andAugmentedLearners.

(SeeFigure2,page3

FortheSebreakdownS.)

2

MITSLOANMANAGEMENTREVIEW•BCG

CombiningOrganizationalLearningandAI-specificLearningLeadstoAugmentedLearning

Organizationallearningisanorganization’scapabilitytochangeitsknowledgethroughexperience.1Organizationsthatlearnfrommistakes,toleratefailure,capturebestpractices,andsupportnewideashaveanadvantageoverorganizationsthatdon’t:Theylearntogetbetter.Thosethatstruggletolearnwillstruggletonavigateincreasinguncertainties.Extensivepastresearchdemonstratesthebenefitsofgeneralorganizationallearning.

Generalorganizationallearningcapabilitiesdon’tneces-sarilydependonAI;organizationscanhavestrongorgani-zationallearningcapabilitieswithoutusingthetechnology.Conversely,organizationscanuseAItolearneveniftheydon’totherwisehavestrongorganizationallearningcapa-bilities.ManagerscanlearnfromgenerativeAItools,useAItodeepentheirunderstandingofperformance,anditer-atewithAItodevelopnewinsightsandprocesses.TheseindividuallearningexperiencescreatevaluefromAIbutmaynotconstituteanorganizationallearningcapability.

Ourresearchfindsthatorganizationsthatcombineorgani-zationallearningwithAI-specificlearning—AugmentedLearners—outperformorganizationsthatemployeitherapproachinisolation.AsbusinessesadoptAIandembracesuccessivelymorepowerfulAItoolsinvariouscontexts,theyhavenewopportunitiestostrengthentheirlearningcapa-bilities—forbothhumanworkersandtheirmachines.Our

priorresearch,“ExpandingAI’sImpactWithOrganizational

Learning

,”foundthatorganizationswithsuperiorlearningcapabilitiesaremorelikelytoobtainsignificantfinancialben-efitsfromtheirAIuse.2Inourlatestresearch,wefindthatthereverseisalsotrue:UsingAIcanimproveorganizationallearningcapabilities,andtheselearningimprovementsaretiedtonotonlyenhancedfinancialresultsbutalsotheabilitytomanagestrategy-relateduncertainties.

AssessingLearningCapabilities

Oursurveyinstrumentmeasuredeachenterprise’sorga-nizationallearningcapabilityusingfivequestions.WealsoassessedhowindividualsandsystemslearnwithAIthroughadifferentsetoffourquestions.Together,thesequestionsprobeseveralaspectsoforganizationallearningandAI-specificlearning:knowledgecapture,synthesis,anddissemination.(seefigure1,page3.)

Becomingadeptattheselearningactivities—whichrep-resentonlyasliceofanorganization’soveralllearningcapability—significantlyimprovesacompany’sabilitytomanageuncertainty.

MostCompaniesHaveLimitedLearningCapabilities

Giventheuncertaintiesfacingmanycompanies,it’sstrik-ingthatmostorganizationshavelimitedlearningcapabili-ties;59%ofallcompaniesrepresentedinoursamplereportlowlevelsofbothorganizationallearningandAI-specificlearning.Only29%ofrespondentsagreeorstronglyagreethattheirenterprisehasorganizationallearningcapabili-ties.While27%oforganizationsreportlearningwithAI,only15%combineAI-specificlearningwithorganizationallearningcapabilities.TheseAugmentedLearnersarethefocusofthisreport.

Organizationallearning

•Learnsthroughexperimentsandtoleratesfailure

•Supportsemployeespresentingnewideas

•Learnsfrompostmortemsonsuccessfulandfailedprojects

•Codifieslearningfrominitiatives

•Gathersandsharesinformationthatemployeeslearn

AI-specificlearning

•UsesAItoleadtonewlearning

•UsesAItolearnfromperformance

•BuildsAIsolutionswithhumanfeedbackloops

•EnablesemployeestolearnfromAIsolutions

FIGURE1

CharacteristicsofOrganizationalLearningandAI-specificLearning

Weoutlinecharacteristicsoforganizationaland

AI-specificlearningbasedonninesurveyquestions.

AI-specificLearning

OrganizatiOnallearning

LowHigh

Anorganization’scapabilitytochangeitsknowledgethroughexperience.

ai-specificlearning

Themeasureoforganizations’useofAIforlearning.

augmentedlearners

OrganizationsthatscorehighonorganizationallearningandAI-specificlearning.

limitedlearners

OrganizationsthatscorelowonorganizationallearningandAI-specificlearning.

Inourglobalsurvey,weassessedanorganizationashaving“high”or“low”organizationalandAIlearningcapabilities.Formoredetail,see“AbouttheResearch,”page2.

12%

AI-specificLearners

15%

AugmentedLearners

59%

LimitedLearners

14%

OrganizationalLearners

Low

OrganizationalLearning

High

FIGURE2

LearningCapabilitiesVary

Only15%oforganizationsareAugmentedLearners—

organizationsthatenhanceorganizationallearningwithAI.

LearningtoManageUncertainty,WithAI

3

Limitedlearningcapabilitiesconstrainopportunitiesandundermineorganizations’abilitytomanageuncertainty.

AugmentedLearnersAreBetteratManagingUncertainty

Amongoursample,15%oforganizationsreporthighlev-elsofbothorganizationallearningandAI-specificlearning.TheseAugmentedLearnersdisplayabilitiesandadvantagesthatleadtobetteroutcomesthanorganizationswithlimitedcapabilities.Theyaremorelikelytoimprovefinancialout-comeswithAIthanLimitedLearners:99%ofAugmentedLearnersreportannualizedrevenuebenefitsfromAI.

(see

sidebar,“enhancingOrganizatiOnallearningWith

aiimprOvesfinancialOutcOmes,”page5.)

What’smore,theyaremuchmorelikelytobepreparedtodealwithuncer-taintyfromtalent,technology,andlegaldisruptions.

Figure3showsthatorganizationallearningaloneorAI-specificlearningaloneofferssomebenefits,buttheircombinationrepresentsthemostpowerfulhedgeagainstmultipletypesofuncertainty.OrganizationallearningwithAImaywellprovetobeasourceofresilienceagainstotherformsofdisruptionsoruncertainty.

AugmentedLearnersAreBetterPreparedforManyTypesofUncertainty

CombiningorganizationallearningandAI-specificlearn-ingcapabilitieshelpsenterprisesmanageuncertaintyand

disruptionsfromtalentmobility,changingtechnology,andevolvingregulatoryandlegalrequirements.

(seefig-

ure5,page6.)

DisruptionsFromTalentMobility

Elevatedratesofworkersquitting,retiring,beinglaidoff,orevenghostingemployerscreaterisksandambiguitiesfororganizationsstrivingtocompete.ShilpaPrasadisheadofincubation,AIVenturesatLGNova,thesubsidiaryofLGElectronicsthatworkswithstartupstofuelinnova-tionforthecompany.Sheobservesthat“60%ofthework-forcewilllikelyhittheageof65bytheyear2028or2030,whichmeansthatalotofknowledgewillgooutfromtheworkforcebecausethey’llretire,notbecausethey’regoingsomewhereelsetowork.”Whenemployeesleaveorgani-zations,theirknowledgecanleavewiththemunlessthecompanyhaseffectiveorganizationallearningcapabilities.

Theseproblemsarenotnewfororganizations.Inindus-trieslikechemicals,aerospace,andoilandgas,retirementrateshavebeenanincreasingcauseforalarmforyears.However,companieshavenewresourcestoaddressthesechallenges.Augmentedlearningisavaluableresourceforaddressingdisruptionsfromtalentmobility.Only39%oforganizationswithlimitedlearningfeelpreparedtohan-dlethedisruptioninknowledgefromdepartingemploy-ees,butthisreadinessincreasesto64%ifthecompanieshaveorganizationallearningcapabilities.UsingAIcanfurthercontributetothisreadiness:Eighty-threepercentofAugmentedLearnersarepreparedtodealwiththeuncertaintyofknowledgedisruptionfromtalentmobil-ity—twiceasmuchasLimitedLearners.

FIGURE3

LearningWithAIHelpsOrganizationsManageUncertainty

Organizationsthatcombine

organizationalandAI-specific

learning(AugmentedLearners)are1.6timesmorelikelytofeelpreparedtomanageuncertaintythanorganizationswithlimitedlearningcapabilities.

AIwillallowustomanageuncertainty

LimitedLearners

OrganizationalLearnersAI-specificLearnersAugmentedLearners

Percentageofrespondentsineachlearningcategorywhostronglyagreeoragreewiththeabovestatement.

inourindustry.1.6×

82%

76%

58%

53%

4

MITSLOANMANAGEMENTREVIEW•BCG

SIDEBAR

ENHANCINGORGANIZATIONALLEARNINGWITHAIIMPROVESFINANCIALOUTCOMES

NumerousstudiesnowshowthedirectfinancialbenefitsofAIadoption.Clearly,organizationsarefindingwaystoextractfinancialbenefitsthroughAI,evenifmanysucheffortsfailortheircostsexceedrevenues.Extensivepastresearchalsosurfacesthegeneralbenefitsoforganizationallearningforcompanies.Inpriorresearch,wefoundthatorganizationswithsuperiorlearningcapabilitiesaremorelikelytoobtainsignifi-cantfinancialbenefitsfromtheirAIusethanorganizationswithlesserlearningcapabilities.

Inthisstudy,wefindthatusingAIcanimproveorganizationallearningcapabilitiesandthattheselearningimprovementsaresimilarlytiedtoimprovedfinancialresults.OrganizationsusingAItoimproveorganizationallearningare1.4timesmorelikely

torecognizesomerevenuebenefitsfromAIcomparedwithorganizationswithlimitedlearningcapabilities.Indeed,virtuallyalloftheseorganizations(99%)recognizeorobservesomerevenuebenefitsfromAI.What’smore,organizationsthatcombineAIandorganizationallearningaresignificantlymorelikelytohaverealizedrevenuebenefitsfromAIcomparedwithcompaniesthatexcelatorganizationallearningbutnotlearningwithAI,andwithcompaniesthatexcelatAI-specificlearningbutnotorganizationallearning.Thatis,combiningorganiza-tionallearningandAI-specificlearningenablesorganizationstocrossarevenuebenefitthresholdthatneithertypeoflearningalonecangenerate.

1.4×

Overthepastthreeyears,AIhascreatedadditionalbusinessvalue.

LimitedLearners

OrganizationalLearnersAI-specificLearnersAugmentedLearners

66%

76%

95%

89%

PercentageofrespondentswhostronglyagreeoragreethatAIhascreatedadditionalbusinessvalueoverthepastthreeyears.

1.4×

OurorganizationhasrealizedrevenuebenefitsfromAIonanannualizedbasis.

LimitedLearners

OrganizationalLearnersAI-specificLearnersAugmentedLearners

71%

72%

79%

99%

PercentageofrespondentswhoreportrevenuebenefitsfromAI.

FIGURE4

EnhancingOrganizationalLearningWithAILeadstoFinancialBenefits

Organizationsthatcombine

organizationallearningand

AI-specificlearning(AugmentedLearners)are1.4timesaslikelytorealizeadditionalbusiness

valueandannualizedrevenuebenefitsfromAI.

LearningtoManageUncertainty,WithAI

5

Asmoreandmoreworkplacecommunicationsoccurviadigitalchannels,emergingAIcapabilitiescanmakethisrawdatasensible,andtacitknowledgeaccessible,ondemand.JackieRocca,formervicepresidentofprod-uctatSlack,describeshowAIcansurfaceanddistillthetroveofinformationfrompastconversationsinaplatformlikeSlackwhenpeopleneedit.“Peoplecangetcontextfromcoworkerswholeftthecompanymonthsoryearsagoandstilllearnfromthatknowledge,”shepointsout.

GenerativeAItoolscanhelpsynthesizeanddisseminatepersonalizedknowledge.“GenAIhelpsyougetmorevalueoutofthisknowledgesothatyoucanfindwhatyou’relookingforandbemoreeffectiveinusingallthatdatathathasbeenavailabletoyoubuthasn’tbeenveryeasyforyoutoaccessanduse,”Roccasays.Whiletoolslikewikismakeiteasierforpeopletorecordknowledge,AIcapabilitiescanbolsterorganizationallearningaboutwhatworkersknow.Thatenablesorganizationstobetterhandleknowledge

Myorganizationispreparedtodealwithuncertaintyfrom…

Talentdisruptions

LimitedLearners

OrganizationalLearnersAI-specificLearnersAugmentedLearners

Technologydisruptions1.8×

LimitedLearners

OrganizationalLearnersAI-specificLearnersAugmentedLearners

Legaldisruptions

LimitedLearners

OrganizationalLearnersAI-specificLearnersAugmentedLearners

Percentageofrespondentsineachlearningcategorywhostronglyagreeoragreethattheirorganizationispreparedtodealwitheachtypeofuncertainty.Somevaluescalculatedwithrounding.

2.2×

1.6×

48%

49%

83%

86%

79%

68%

68%

39%

61%

64%

58%

71%

FIGURE5

CombiningOrganizational

LearningWithAILearningHelpsWithManyTypesofUncertainty

Organizationsthatcombine

organizationalandAI-specificlearning(AugmentedLearners)aremorelikelytomanagetalent,technology,and

legaldisruptions.

6

MITSLOANMANAGEMENTREVIEW•BCG

lossfromtalentmobility,reducinguncertaintyaroundhowandwhentocapturetacitknowledge.

Onecloudservicesproviderwasn’tpreparingforapoten-tialpandemicwhenitdevelopeditslearningtool,butwhenin-personmeetingswerenolongerpossibleduetoCOVID-19,itsplatformandmicro-learningcontentenabledthecompanytosustainandevenenhancemean-ingfuleducationalexperiences.Thecompany’sresponsibleAIleadexplainshowaninnovativelearningtoolturnedintoapowerfultoolformanaginguncertaintieswroughtbythepandemic.Beforethepandemic,thecompanyhadbegunshiftingitslearningmodulestoshorter,AI-supported“micro-adaptive”approachessuitablefora“TikTokworld.”Thepandemicnecessitatedaremoteworkenvironmentthatchangedwhatemployeesneededtoknowand,further-more,madeitmoredifficultforthecompany’seducationalcontentproviderstodeterminewhatemployeesknewanddidn’tknowonanongoingbasis.

Theadaptivemodulestailoredcontentrecommendationstoeachindividualasthesystemassessedindividualusers’learningcapabilities.“AIbecameahugepartofthat,”thisexecutivesays.“Wemonitoredusers’self-reportingandskillsself-assessmentsintheirprofilesandfromthelearningplatform.”Byanalyzingskillsandcompetencyproficiencyacrosssystemsthroughouttheorganization,thecompanyidentifiedwhatitsemployeeswerelearningandneededtolearn.Sheadds,“TheAI-enabledmodulesdidnotjustenableadifferentdeliveryofcontent;theplatformhelpedpeoplebetterunderstandwhattheyknewandhowthatintersectedwithwhattheyneededtoknow.”Drawingonthelearningapproachesandhabitsofmanyofthecompany’sworkers,thelearningmodulesmadetailoredrecommenda-tionsbasedonindividualneedsthatreduceduncertaintyaboutwhatanindividualneededtolearnnext.EnhancingorganizationallearningwithAIprovidedflexibilitytoman-agenecessarychangesduringanunanticipatedcrisis.

TechnologicalandRegulatoryUncertainty

Increasinglyfrequenttechnologyinnovationsleadtosignifi-cantstrategicandoperationaluncertainty.Adaptingsystemsoverandoveragaincanbeexhaustinganddisruptivetotech-nologistsandbusinessusersalike.JustwhencompanieshadbeguntounderstandhowtoincorporateAIuseintotheirbusinessstrategies,generativetoolsintroducedchangesthatrequiredareassessment.

(see“thestateOfaiinbusiness,”

page14.)

ToniaSideri,directoroftheAIandAnalyticsCenter

ofExcellenceatNovoNordisk,notesthat“technologyisevolvingfasterthanorganizationscanaddress.Combiningthatwiththehypearoundtechnology’spossibleeffectspullstheorganizationtodosomething.”Emergingtechnologiesbecome“apropellerfortheorganization,”sheobserves,evenifit’sinitiallyunclearwhatthebusinesscaseisorwhereinvestmentsshouldgo.Reassessingtechnologyinvestmentscanbebeneficial,eveniforganizationsdon’tendupadjustingtheirstrategiesbut,rather,reinforcethemtoworkwithinthenewtechnologicallandscape.

What’smore,technologyadoptioncanleadtomore,andmorecomplex,regulatoryscrutinyandcomplianceissues,raisingdifficultquestionsabouthowtonavigateincreas-inglyuncertainlegalenvironments.Surprisingly,usingAItoamplifyorganizationallearningdramaticallyimprovesacompany’sabilitytomanageuncertaintyfrombothtech-nologyandregulatorydisruptions.Comparedwithorga-nizationswithlimitedlearningcapabilities,AugmentedLearnersaresignificantlymorelikelytobepreparedtodeal

withuncertaintyfromtechnologydisruptions(86%versus49%)andregulatorydisruptions(79%versus48%).(seefigure5,page6.)

Learningtomanageuncertaintythatcomesfromadepen-denceonoldertechnologyandfromfuturewavesoftech-nologyisagrowingopportunityforAugmentedLearners.SheliaAnderson,CIOofAflacU.S.,shareshowtheinsurerusesgenerativeAItoreverse-engineercodeincertainleg-acysystems.Thisapproachisprojectedtoboostcurrentlevelsofsystemproductivitybyfiveto10timesbyrevealinghiddencomplexities.“Wehavebuiltinapproachestolearn-ingthatleverageAIandactuallyhelptoinformourorgani-zationonhowAIcanbeusedaswell,”Andersonsays.ShenotesthatAflacalsohasatechnologyincubatorthatusesAItoevaluatenewtechnologiesandrapidlyprototypelead-ingcandidatestoproveoutconceptsforthebusiness.Ifaprototypeappearedtobeviableforthebusiness,Andersonsays,“wewoulduseAItobuildafullbusinessmodelwiththereturnoninvestmentorproductivitysavingsorwhat-everbusinessvaluemetricwe’relookingtoachieve.”

Ontheregulatoryfront,largeorganizationswithglobaloperationscanuseAItonavigatecomplex,uncertainreg-ulatoryframeworksthatvaryfromonecountrytothenext.Forexample,ELC’sGottipatiobserves,“Fromacompanypointofview,youmakeoneproductanddistributeit.Butthen,iftherequirementsaredifferentfordifferentcountries,andalsocertainingredientsarelimitedincertaincountries,

LearningtoManageUncertainty,WithAI

7