LNG加气站工程经济效益评价方案

PAGE65LNG加气站工程经济效益评价方案1.1编制依据1）本经济评价依据国家发改委、建设部2006年联合发布的《建设项目经济评价方法与参数》（第三版）及国家现行财税政策、会计制度与相关法规进行编制。2）将该项目作为一个系统，按照费用效益对应一致的原则进行项目的总体经济效益计算与评价。1.2生产规模本项目为麟游县LNG加气站项目。项目建成后，可实现销售总量：5000~15000Nm³/d。本可研按照15000Nm³/d进行分析。1.3项目计算期及生产负荷项目计算期为20年，其中：建设期1年，营业期19年。项目建设、投达产计划见下表：项目建设、投达产计划表建设期投产期第1年第2年第3年第4年第5年30%50%70%100%1.4投资估算与资金筹措1.4.1投资估算建设项目总投资1550万元。1）建设投资1000万元；2）流动资金为50万元;3）汽车改装厂500万元;1.5总成本费用1.5.1计算依据（1）固定资产折旧残值率取5%，综合折旧年限20年。（2）水电、土地租用、人员管理费用：按每方气提取0.1元/计算，则为1500元/日。（3）购气价：3.6元/立方。1.5.2总成本费用进气价按3.6元/m3（含税价）测算。项目建成后年平均总成本及费用为1980.6万元，正常年经营成本2033.8万元。见年总成本费用估算表。1.5.3销售收入售气价按4.2元/m3（含税价）测算。项目达产年年销售收入3030万元。见销售收入、销售税金及附加估算表。1.5.4税金及利润计算增值税税率为13%。经计算，正常年进项税为252.37万元，销项税为286.65万元，增值税为34.28万元。城市维护建设税和教育费附加分别为增值税的7%和3%缴纳。经计算，正常年缴纳城市维护建设税2.4万元，教育费附加为1.0万元。所得税按应纳所得税额的25%计取，法定盈余公积金按净利润的10%提取。见损益表。1.6财务分析1.6.1盈利能力分析相对于项目的财务现金流量分析，资本金现金流量分析的实质是融资后项目盈利能力分析。市场经济条件下，在对项目基本获利能力有所判断的基础上，资本金盈利能力指标，是比较和取舍融资方案的重要依据。主要盈利能力指标汇总见下表。主要盈利能力指标汇总表指标名称单位指标值所得税后目财务部收益率％9.45所得税前目财务部收益率％14.45所得税后目投资收期含建设)年9.35所得税前目投资收期含建设)年7.13所得税后目投资现值（=%）万元267.2799994所得税前目投资现值（=%）万元1228.701.6.2财务生存能力分析项目计算期内各年的净现金流量和累计盈余资金均为正值，各年均有足够的净现金流量维持项目的正常运营，可保证项目财务的可持续性。见总投资现金流量表、资金来源与运用估算表。1.7敏感性分析1.7.1.敏感性分析表敏感性分析见图2，该表分析了各因素变化对税后内部收益率的影响，其中产品售价和经营成本是效益最敏感的因素。对产品售价和经营成本两因素组合发生同向“涨”或“落”的情况进行双因素敏感性分析表明，当产品售价和经营成本同向变化时，它对该项目的内部收益率影响较小。敏感性分析表如下表：敏感性分析表单位：万元项目内部收益率（％）净现值（万元）投资回收期（年）税前税后税前税后税前税后基本方案14.459.451228.70267.277.139.35固定资产投资增加5％7.415.28-107.07-473.9310.6312.33销售收入减少5％4.873.27-519.58-756.4612.7014.36经营成本增加5％5.623.14-399.57-780.7412.0214.511.7.2评价结论本项目所得税前项目投资财务内部收益率9.45%高于设定基准收益率(ic=8%)，偿债分析指标较好。计算期内各年经营活动现金流量均为正数，具备财务生存能力。附表1现金流量表（总投资）现金流量表（总投资）

表：1单位：万元序

号年份

项目合计建设期投产期20122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031生产年序号1234567891011121314151617181920生产负荷（%）1现金流入46121622.91245.81893.72491.72491.72491.72491.72491.72491.72491.72491.72491.72491.72491.72491.72491.72491.72491.72491.72491.71.1产品销售收入46096622.91245.81868.72491.72491.72491.72491.72491.72491.72491.72491.72491.72491.72491.72491.72491.72491.72491.72491.72491.71.2回收固定资产余值1.3回收流动资金25.02现金流出427782292.81273.5271.92170.52145.52145.52145.52145.52145.52145.52145.52145.52145.52145.52145.52145.52145.52145.52145.52145.52.1固定资产投资28101655.9112.41042.02.2流动资金25.02.3经营成本37828603.31088.81561.32033.82033.82033.82033.82033.82033.82033.82033.82033.82033.82033.82033.82033.82033.82033.82033.82033.82.4销售税金及附加620.41.42.43.43.43.43.43.43.43.43.43.43.43.43.43.43.43.43.43.42.5所得税205333.370.9108.3108.3108.3108.3108.3108.3108.3108.3108.3108.3108.3108.3108.3108.3108.3108.3108.3108.33净现金流量3342321.17346.17346.17346.17346.17346.17346.17346.17346.17346.17346.17346.17346.17346.17346.17346.17346.174累计净现金流量-1697.5-2517.7-2196.5-1850.4-1504.2-1158.0-811.9-465.7-119.5226.6572.8919.01265.11611.31957.52303.62649.82996.03342.15所得税前净现金流量5394.9243.28429.42454.42454.42454.42454.42454.42454.42454.42454.42454.42454.42454.42454.42454.42454.42454.42454.426所得税前累计净现金流量-1593.3-2305.2-1875.8-1421.4-967.0-512.6-58.1396.3850.71305.11759.52214.02668.43122.83577.24031.74486.14940.55394.9附表2资金来源与运用表资金来源与运用表

表：2单位：万元序

号年份

项目合计建设期投产期2012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030203112345678910111213141516171819201资金来源109801697.11265.011344.00451.42451.42451.42451.42451.42451.42451.42451.42451.42451.42451.42451.42451.42451.42451.42451.42451.421.1利润总额7777-2.14134.24283.63433.02433.02433.02433.02433.02433.02433.02433.02433.02433.02433.02433.02433.02433.02433.02433.02433.021.2折旧费36818.4018.4018.4018.4018.4018.4018.4018.4018.4018.4018.4018.4018.4018.4018.4018.4018.4018.4018.4018.401.3摊销费1.4长期借款1.5流动资金借款1.6其它借款1.7自有资金28351680.85112.361041.971.8回收固定资产余值1.9回收流动资金2资金运用48631689.14183.271150.22108.26108.26108.26108.26108.26108.26108.26108.26108.26108.26108.26108.26108.26108.26108.26108.26108.262.1固定资产投资28101655.85112.361041.972.2建设期利息2.3流动资金2.4所得税205333.2970.91108.26108.26108.26108.26108.26108.26108.26108.26108.26108.26108.26108.26108.26108.26108.26108.26108.26108.262.5长期借款本金偿还2.6流动资金借款本金偿还3盈余资金61178821943433433433433433433433433433433433433433433433433434累计盈余资金890283627970131316561999234226863029337237154058440147455088543157746117附表3项目资产折旧费估算表固定资产折旧估算表表:3单位：万元年份原值折旧年限建设期投产期20122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031项目1234567891011121314151617181920房屋建筑物118.00205.95.95.95.95.95.95.95.95.95.95.95.95.95.95.95.95.95.95.95.9折旧112.1106.2100.394.488.582.676.770.864.959.053.147.241.335.429.523.617.711.85.9(0.0)净值机器设备250.002012.512.512.512.512.512.512.512.512.512.512.512.512.512.512.512.512.512.512.512.5折旧237.5225.0212.5200.0187.5175.0162.5150.0137.5125.0112.5100.087.575.062.550.037.525.012.50.0净值原值368.00折旧18.418.418.418.418.418.418.418.418.418.418.418.418.418.418.418.418.418.418.418.4净值349.6331.2312.8294.4276.0257.6239.2220.8202.4184.0165.6147.2128.8110.492.073.655.236.818.40.0

附表4总成本费用估算表总成本费用估算表

表：4单位：万元序

号年份

项目数

量单

价建设期投产期2012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030203112345678910111213141516171819201外购原材料3.6472.59451417.5189018901890189018901890189018901890189018901890189018901890189018902燃料、动力（水、电）3600.2382.882.882.882.882.882.882.882.882.882.882.882.882.882.882.882.882.882.882.882.83房屋、土地租赁1010101010101010101010101010101010101010104工资及福利费13213262626262626262626262626262626262626265折旧费18.418.418.418.418.418.418.418.418.418.418.418.418.418.418.418.418.418.418.418.46摊销费333333333333333333337修理费25252525252525252525252525252525252525258利息支出其中：长期借款利息流动资金借款利息9其它费用10总成本费用624.71110.21582.72055.22055.22055.22055.22055.22055.22055.22055.22055.220552055.22055.220552055.220552055.22055.2其中：固定成本59.472.472.472.472.472.472.472.472.472.472.472.472.472.472.472.472.472.472.472.4可变成本565.31037.81510.31982.81982.81982.81982.81982.81982.81982.81982.81982.819831982.81982.819831982.819831982.81982.811经营成本603.31088.81561.32033.82033.82033.82033.82033.82033.82033.82033.82033.820342033.82033.820342033.820342033.82033.812单位成本

附表5销售收入和销售税金及附加估算表销售收入和销售税金及附加估算表

表：5单位：万元序号项目单价

（元）2012年2013年2014年2015年2016年2017—2031年售气量金额售气量金额售气量金额售气量金额售气量金额售气量金额万m3万元万m3万元万m3万元万m3万元万m3万元万m3万元1销售收入（天然气）4.2131.250551.250262.5001102.500393.7501653.7505252205.0005252205.0005252205.0002销项税（13%）71.66143.33214.99286.65286.65286.653进项税：68.09129.52190.94252.37252.37252.37其中：天然气（13%）61.43122.85184.28245.70245.70245.70水（6%）4.974.974.974.974.974.97电（17%）1.701.701.701.701.701.704增值税3.571.8124.0434.2834.2834.285城市维护建设税（7%）0.250.971.682.402.402.406教育费附加（3%）0.110.410.721.031.031.037销售税金及附加0.361.382.403.433.433.43附表6损益表损益表

表：6单位：万元序

号年份

项目合计建设期投产期2012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030203112345678910111213141516171819201产品销售收入46096622.91245.81868.72491.72491.72491.72491.72491.72491.72491.72491.72491.72491.72491.72491.72491.72491.72491.72491.72491.72销售税金及附加620.41.42.43.43.43.43.43.43.43.43.43.43.43.43.43.43.43.43.43.43总成本费用38256624.71110.21582.72055.22055.22055.22055.22055.22055.22055.22055.22055.22055.22055.22055.22055.22055.22055.22055.22055.24利润总额7777-2.1134.2283.6433.0433.0433.0433.0433.0433.0433.0433.0433.043