ACCA-全球经济状况调查:2024年第三季度 GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS SURVEY REPORT Q3,2024_第1页
ACCA-全球经济状况调查:2024年第三季度 GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS SURVEY REPORT Q3,2024_第2页
ACCA-全球经济状况调查:2024年第三季度 GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS SURVEY REPORT Q3,2024_第3页
ACCA-全球经济状况调查:2024年第三季度 GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS SURVEY REPORT Q3,2024_第4页
ACCA-全球经济状况调查:2024年第三季度 GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS SURVEY REPORT Q3,2024_第5页
已阅读5页,还剩15页未读 继续免费阅读

下载本文档

版权说明:本文档由用户提供并上传,收益归属内容提供方,若内容存在侵权,请进行举报或认领

文档简介

ThinkAhead

TheAssociationof

Accountantsand

Financialprofessionals

inBusiness

GLOBALECONOMICCONDITIONSSURVEYREPORT:Q3,2024

2

Executivesummary

AccountantsandCFOsbecomemorepessimisticonglobaleconomicprospectsinQ3.

Confidenceamongaccountantsand

chieffinancialofficers(CFOs)declines.

TheACCAandIMAGlobalEconomic

ConditionsSurvey(GECS)suggeststhat

globalconfidenceamongaccountantsandfinanceprofessionalsdeclinedmoderatelyinQ3.ItisnowatitslowestsinceQ42023andslightlybelowitshistoricalaverage.1

Therewasalsoamoderatedeclineinthe

forward-lookingNewOrdersIndex,and

modestfallsintheCapitalExpenditure

andEmploymentindices(seeChart1).

Themessagecomingfromtheglobal

CFOsinourpanelwasalsomorecautious.ConfidenceamongCFOsfellmoderately,andisnowbelowitshistoricalaverage,

andtherewasasharpdeteriorationintheirassessmentofneworders(see

Chart15

).

SomerecoveryinconfidenceinNorth

America,butlargefallsinAsiaPacificandWesternEurope.ConfidenceimprovedinNorthAmerica(see

Chart2

),althoughit

recoupedlessthanhalfofitsQ2fall,and

thekeyindicatorsfortheregionlookweakbyhistoricalstandards.GrowthintheU.S.

economyislikelytoslowovercoming

quarters,butasoftlandinglooksthe

mostlikelyscenario.TherewasamarkeddeclineinconfidenceinAsiaPacific,

erasingmostofthegainsmadeearlierin2024.Concernsaboutthecontinued

weaknessoftheChineseeconomymayhaveweighedonsentiment,aswellas

fearsabouttheriskofaU.S.recession.

Thesurveywascompletedbeforethe

Chineseauthoritiesannouncedapivot

toamoreaggressivepolicystimulus.

AsharpdeclineinconfidenceintheUK

weighedheavilyontheindexforWesternEurope,amidconcernsaboutpredicted

taxrisesintheupcomingBudget.

Costconcernsremainelevated,but

indicatorsofcorporatestressarestillnotconcerning.Theproportionofrespondentsreportingincreasedoperatingcostsremainselevatedbyhistoricalstandardsinmost

regions(see

Chart5

),suggestingcentralbanksneedtoproceedquitecautiously

withmonetaryeasing,particularlygiven

eventsintheMiddleEast.Butconcerns

thatcustomersand/orsupplierscouldgo

outofbusinessremainclosetohistorical

averagesandtheproportionofglobalfirmshavingproblemsaccessingfinancehas

movedloweramideasingglobalfinancialconditions(see

Charts7and8

).

Theglobalriskssectionaskedaccountantstoranktheirtopthreeriskpriorities.

Regulatorychangewasthetopconcernforthesecondquarterrunningforrespondentsinfinancialservices,whiletheeconomy

remainedwelloutinfrontforthoseinthe

corporatesector.Bothpublicsectorentitiesandsmallandmedium-sizedpractices

(SMPs)putcybersecurityastheirtoppriority,andforthefirsttimesincetherisksurvey

started,climatechangeclaimedatopthreespot,withthepublicsectorplacingitthird.Anotherfirst-everwasWesternEurope

beingtheonlyregiontoranktalentscarcityasitshighestriskpriority.

GECSsurveypointstosomeslowingin

globalgrowthinQ3.Theglobaleconomyhasbeenquiteresilientsofarin2024,

butthelatestsurveyofaccountantspointstosomeeasingingrowthatthecurrent

juncture.Onapositivenote,theincreasedpolicystimulusshouldboosttheChineseeconomyoverthecomingmonthsand

quarters,andthemovetoratecutsby

theU.S.FederalReserve,andmanyothercentralbanks,willincreasinglysupport

globalactivity.Thatsaid,geopolitical

risksareveryelevated,withtheconflictintheMiddleEastescalating.Inadditiontopotentiallyweighingonconfidence,

anyfurtherspikeinoilpriceswould

clearlybeproblematicforcentralbanks

andconsumers.Meanwhile,significant

uncertaintyabouttheupcomingU.S.

electioncouldincreasecorporatecaution.

ConfidenceamongglobalaccountantsdeclinedinQ3toitslowestsinceQ42023.

CHART1:GECSglobalindicatorsIndex

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

-40

-50

-60

Q32014Q32016Q32018Q32020Q32022Q32024

ConfidenceIndexOrdersIndex

CapitalExpenditureIndexEmploymentIndexSource:ACCA/IMA(2014–24)

1Themedianisusedtocalculatetheaverages.

3

1.Globalandregionalanalysis

TherewassomerecoveryinconfidenceinNorthAmerica,butasharpfallinAsiaPacific.

Therewasawidedivergenceinthe

regionalchangesinconfidenceinQ3

(seeChart2).Thelargestrisewasinthe

MiddleEast,andthereweredecentgainsinSouthAsiaandNorthAmerica.The

improvementinthelatterwasdrivenby

quitealargeriseinU.S.confidenceafter

ahugefallpreviously.Whilelessthanhalfofthepreviousdeclinewasrecouped,it

wouldsuggestthatfearsaboutapotentialU.S.recessionmayhaveeasedsomewhat.Thatsaid,theotherkeyindicatorslook

consistentwithaslowingeconomy.

Meanwhile,therewasahugedeclinein

confidenceinAsiaPacific,wipingoutmostofthegainsmadeearlierin2024.This

mayreflectgrowingconcernsabouttheweaknessoftheChineseeconomy,fears

Confidencefellsharplyin

AsiaPacificinQ3andregisteredquitealargedeclineinWestern

Europe.TherewassomeimprovementinNorthAmericaafterthehugefallinQ2.

TheGlobalNewOrdersIndex declinedmoderatelyinQ3, drivenbyfallsinthekeyAsiaPacific,NorthAmericaandWesternEuroperegions.

abouttheriskofahardlandingfortheU.S.economy,andtherecentweakeningintheglobalmanufacturingsector.Thesurvey

wascarriedoutbeforetheannouncementofamoreaggressivepolicystimulusby

theChineseauthorities.Therewasalso

quiteamaterialdeclineinconfidencein

WesternEurope,drivenbyaverysharp

fallintheUK.Concernsabouttaxrises

intheupcomingBudgetandotherpolicy

changesappeartohavebeenakeyfactor.

ConfidenceismoderatelybelowitshistoricalaverageinNorthAmerica,

WesternEurope,andAfrica,andvery

slightlylowerinAsiaPacific.ConfidenceissignificantlyaboveaverageintheMiddleEast,andmeaningfullysoinSouthAsia.

TheGlobalNewOrdersIndexdeclinedmoderatelyinthelatestquarter(see

Chart3).ItisnowatitslowestsinceQ4

2020,albeitonlyslightlybelowitsaverageoverthesurvey’shistory.Thedeclinesin

orderswerequitebroad-basedacrossregions.ThelargestfallsoccurredinthekeyregionsofWesternEurope,North

America,andAsiaPacific,withmore

modestdeclinesinAfricaandtheMiddle

East.BuckingthetrendwasSouthAsia,

withasmallrise.Comparedwiththeir

history,newordersaremeaningfullybelowaverageinNorthAmericaandWestern

Europe,butaboveaveragebyvarying

degreesinAsiaPacific,Africa,SouthAsia,andtheMiddleEast.

CHART2:Confidence–changeoverthepastquarter/year,byregion

MiddleEast

SouthAsia

NorthAmerica

Africa

Global

WesternEuropeAsiaPacific

-30-20-1001020

Indexpoints

ConfidenceoverthepastquarterConfidenceoverthepastyear

Source:ACCA/IMA(2023–24)

CHART3:GECSOrders–changeoverthepastquarter/year,byregion

SouthAsia

MiddleEast

Africa

Global

AsiaPacific

NorthAmerica

WesternEurope

-10-5051015

Indexpoints

OrdersoverthepastquarterOrdersoverthepastyear

Source:ACCA/IMA(2023–24)

GLOBALECONOMICCONDITIONSSURVEYREPORT:Q3,2024

4

Theproportionofglobalrespondentsreporting‘increasedcosts’waslargelyunchangedinQ3butremainselevatedbyhistoricalstandards(seeChart4).

Attheregionallevel,costpressures

increasedmateriallyinWesternEurope

(drivenbyaverysignificantriseintheUK),

roseslightlyintheMiddleEast,and

werelargelyunchangedinAsiaPacific.

CostpressuresfellverysharplyinSouthAsia,andtoamuchlesserextentinAfricaandNorthAmerica.

CostpressuresremainelevatedbyhistoricalstandardsinWesternEurope,Africa,Asia

Pacific,andNorthAmerica(seeChart5),suggestingthatcentralbanksenacting,orcontemplating,monetaryeasinginthose

regionsneedtotreadsomewhatcarefully.CostpressuresarearoundtheirhistoricalaveragesintheMiddleEastandSouth

Asia.ConcernsaboutcostsamongCFOsdeclinedmeaningfullyversusthepreviousquarter(seeChart6),butover60%are

stillreportingincreasedoperatingcostscomparedwithahistoricalaverageof

under50%.

Theproportionofrespondentsreportingincreasedoperating costsremainedelevatedbyhistoricalstandardsinQ3.

CostpressuresfacingbusinessesremainelevatedinWesternEurope,AsiaPacific,NorthAmerica,andAfrica.

TheproportionofCFOsexperiencingincreasedoperating costsdeclinedmateriallyinQ3 andisnowsimilartothatofthebroaderpanel.

CHART4:Concernsaboutincreasedoperatingcosts%

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

Q32014Q32016Q32018Q32020Q32022Q32024

Source:ACCA/IMA(2014–24)

%ofglobalrespondentsreporting‘increasedcosts’Medianoversurveyhistory

80

60

40

20

0

CHART5:Concernsaboutincreasedoperatingcosts%ofrespondentsreportingincreasedcosts

NorthAmericaWesternEuropeMiddleEastAsiaPacificSouthAsiaAfrica

Q32024.Medianoversurveyhistory

Source:ACCA/IMA(2024)

CHART6:GlobalCFOconcernsaboutincreasedoperatingcosts%ofrespondentsreportingincreasedcosts

100

80

60

40

20

0

Medianoversurveyhistory

Q32014Q32016Q32018Q32020Q32022Q32024

Source:ACCA/IMA(2014–24)

GLOBALECONOMICCONDITIONSSURVEYREPORT:Q3,2024

5

ConcernsgloballythatcustomerscouldgooutofbusinessroseslightlyinQ3,while

concernsaboutsupplierseasedagain.

NeitherofourtwoGECS‘fear’indiceslookworryingbyhistoricalstandards(seeChart7).Meanwhile,globalproblemsaccessingfinanceeasedforthesecondconsecutivequarter,withonly14%ofrespondents

reportingissuesaccessingfinance,belowthehistoricalaverageof20%.Therecentdeclinelikelyreflectstheimprovementin

globalfinancialconditionssinceautumn

2023andthebeginningofratecutsby

themajorglobalcentralbanks.Global

problemssecuringpromptpaymentalso

easedslightlyandarebelowtheirhistoricalaverage(seeChart8).

Theeasinginglobalfinancialconditions

hasbeenahelpfultailwindfortheglobal

economy,andmonetaryeasingbycentral

banks,particularlytheU.S.FederalReserve,

isclearlyverybeneficial.Nevertheless,

absentasharpslowingingrowth,interest-rate-cuttingcyclesarelikelytobequite

gradualandratesarestilllikelytoremainhighbythestandardsofthepost-GlobalFinancialCrisisperiod.Hence,firms

andhouseholdsthatlockedinverylow

interestratesinrecentyearsarelikelyto

experienceariseinborrowingcostswhentheycometorenewtheirloans.

Concernsgloballythatcustomerscouldgooutofbusinessedged upinQ3,butconcernsabout supplierscontinuedtoease. Neitherserieslooksalarmingbyhistoricalstandards.

Globalproblemsaccessing financehaveeasedquitemateriallyin2024andareclosetorecordlows.

CHART7:GECSglobal‘fear’indicesIndex

50

40

30

20

10

0

Q32014Q32016Q32018Q32020Q32022Q32024

GECS:Indexofconcernaboutcustomersgoingoutofbusiness

GECS:IndexofconcernaboutsuppliersgoingoutofbusinessSource:ACCA/IMA(2014–24)

CHART8:Problemssecuringpromptpaymentandaccessingfinance

%

35

30

25

20

15

10

Q32014Q32016Q32018Q32020Q32022Q32024

GECS:Globalproblemsaccessingfinance

GECS:GlobalproblemssecuringpromptpaymentSource:ACCA/IMA(2014–24)

GLOBALECONOMICCONDITIONSSURVEYREPORT:Q3,2024

6

NORTHAMERICA

ConfidenceimprovedsomewhatinQ3,albeit

recoupinglessthanhalfofQ2’sdecline(seeChart

9),andremainsbelowitshistoricalaverage.TheNewOrders,CapitalExpenditureandEmploymentindicesalldeclinedbyvaryingdegreesandarewellbelow

theirhistoricalaverages.Somewhatencouragingly,theproportionofrespondentsreportingincreasedoperatingcostseasedtoitslowestsinceQ12021,

whileremaininghighbyhistoricalstandards.Allin

all,whiletheincreaseinconfidenceiswelcome,thekeyindicatorsareconsistentwithsomeslowingin

theU.S.economyandsignificantcautiononbehalfofbusinesses.Butwiththejobmarketshowing

resilienceandtheFederalReservebeginningits

rate-cuttingcycle,themostlikelyscenariofortheU.S.economystilllookstobeasoftlanding.Nevertheless,giventheuncertaintyfacedbyfirmsamidtheelection,andsharplyheightenedgeopoliticaltensions,one

cannotruleoutasharper-than-expectedslowdown.

ASIAPACIFIC

ConfidencefellverysharplyinQ3,erasingmostofthegainsmadeearlierintheyear,althoughitisonlyslightlybelowitshistoricalaverage.Therewasalsoquiteameaningfuldecreaseintheforward-lookingNewOrdersIndex(seeChart10),butitremains

wellaboveaverage.ThemessagecomingfromtheCapitalExpenditureandEmploymentindiceswas

mixed.Theformerimprovedslightlyandisaboveaverage,whilethelatterfellquitematerially,but

isclosetoitsaverage.Allinall,thekeyindicatorspointtoamoredownbeatbackdropfortheregion.ThecontinuedweaknessoftheChineseeconomywaslikelyafactor,aswellasconcernsaboutthe

U.S.economyandsignsofweakeninginglobal

manufacturing.ThemovetoamoreaggressivepolicystimulusbytheChineseauthorities,subsequentto

thesurveyperiod,shouldhelpactivityintheregion,aswillfallingU.S.interestrates.TheU.S.electionandgeopoliticsremainimportantrisks.

WESTERNEUROPE

Therewasquitealargedeclineinconfidence,whichisnowatitslowestsinceQ42023(seeChart11).

SimilarlyfortheNewOrdersIndex,whichisnow

meaningfullybelowitshistoricalaverage.More

encouragingly,theCapitalExpenditureIndexedgedslightlyhigher,andtherewasadecentgaininthe

EmploymentIndex.Theformerisbelowitshistoricalaveragewhilethelatterisjustabove.Meanwhile,

theproportionofrespondentsreportingincreased

operatingcostsjumpedandremainswellaboveits

average.Muchworsethanexpected,outturnsfortheUKheavilyinfluencedtheresults.UKconfidencefellmarkedly,andtherewasameaningfuldeclineinthe

NewOrdersIndex.TheproportionofUKrespondentscitingincreasedoperatingcostsalsosoared.TheUKresultsseemtoflyinthefaceoftheimprovingdata

thisyear,bothontheactivityandinflationfront,and

likelyreflectbusinessconcernsaboutpolicychangesandtaxrisesattheBudgeton30October.

CHART9:NorthAmericaIndex

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

60

-

Q32014Q32016Q32018Q32020Q32022Q32024

ConfidenceIndexOrdersIndex

CapitalExpenditureIndexEmploymentIndexSource:ACCA/IMA(2014–24)

CHART10:AsiaPacificIndex

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

-40

-50

-60

-70

Q32014Q32016Q32018Q32020Q32022Q32024

ConfidenceIndexOrdersIndex

CapitalExpenditureIndexEmploymentIndexSource:ACCA/IMA(2014–24)

CHART11:WesternEuropeIndex

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

Q32014Q32016Q32018Q32020Q32022Q32024

ConfidenceIndexOrdersIndex

CapitalExpenditureIndexEmploymentIndex

Source:ACCA/IMA(2014–24)

GLOBALECONOMICCONDITIONSSURVEYREPORT:Q3,2024

7

MIDDLEEAST

Confidenceintheregionimprovedquitesharplyin

Q3,asdidtheCapitalExpenditureandEmployment

indices(seeChart12),allofwhicharenowwellabovetheirhistoricalaverages.Bycontrast,therewasa

smallfallintheNewOrdersIndex,althoughitremains

aboveaverage.Thelatestresultswereclearly

encouragingandcomedespiteconflictintheregionandthefallinoilpricessincetheQ2survey.The

positiveresultslikelyreflectthecontinuedresilienceofthenon-oileconomiesinkeycountriessuchas

SaudiArabia,aswellasrisingexpectationsofeasierU.S.monetarypolicy,withmanycurrenciesinthe

regionpeggedtotheU.S.dollar.ComparedwithQ2,surveyrespondentsalsobecamemoreoptimisticontheprospectsforincreasesingovernmentspendingoverthenext12months.Onanoteofcaution,the

surveywasconductedbeforethelatestintensificationofhostilitiesintheregion,whichriskweighingon

businessandconsumersentiment,despitepushingoilpriceshigher.

SOUTHASIA

ConfidenceregisteredadecentincreaseinQ3–itisnowatitshighestlevelsinceQ32022andaboveitshistoricalaverage.Therewasalsoa

smallimprovementintheNewOrdersIndex,which

remainsaboveitsaverage(seeChart13).There

weresolidgainsinboththeCapitalExpenditureandEmploymentindices.Theformerisaboveitshistoricalaverage,whilethelatterisatit.Meanwhile,the

proportionofsurveyrespondentsreportingincreasedoperatingcostsfellsharplyandisnowatitshistoricalaverage.Overall,thekeyindicatorsareconsistent

withaquitepositivebackdropforSouthAsia.The

region’slargesteconomy,India,shouldcontinuetobetheworld’sfastestgrowingmajoreconomyin

both2024and2025.Itshouldbenefitfromstrong

infrastructureinvestmentbythegovernment,fast

growthintheservicessector,andthecontinued

diversificationofinternationalsupplychains.Thejobmarketremainsanareaofsomeweaknessthough.

AFRICA

Allthekeyindicesdeclinedbyvaryingdegreesin

Q3(seeChart14).TheConfidenceandNewOrdersindicesbothregisteredquitesmallfalls.Theformerisbelowitshistoricalaverage,whilethelatteris

aboveit.TheCapitalExpenditureIndexrecorded

amodestdecline,buttherewasalargerretreatintheEmploymentIndex.Bothindicesarebelowtheirhistoricalaverages,butnotsignificantly.Meanwhile,theproportionofrespondentsreportingincreased

operatingcostseasedinQ3whileremainingelevated

byhistoricalstandards.Inflationremainsamajor

issueintheregion,althoughtheimprovingpictureinsomecountriesisallowingcentralbankstoreducepolicyrates.MonetaryeasingbytheU.S.Federal

Reserveshouldproveveryhelpfulbyreducing

currencydepreciationpressures,butgeopoliticaldevelopmentsremainamajorrisk,giventheir

potentialimpactoncommodityprices.

CHART12:MiddleEastIndex

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

-80

Q32014Q32016Q32018Q32020Q32022Q32024

ConfidenceIndexOrdersIndex

CapitalExpenditureIndexEmploymentIndexSource:ACCA/IMA(2014–24)

CHART13:SouthAsiaIndex

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

-80

Q32014Q32016Q32018Q32020Q32022Q32024

ConfidenceIndexOrdersIndex

CapitalExpenditureIndexEmploymentIndexSource:ACCA/IMA(2014–24)

CHART14:AfricaIndex

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

-80

Q32014Q32016Q32018Q32020Q32022Q32024

ConfidenceIndexOrdersIndex

CapitalExpenditureIndexEmploymentIndex

Source:ACCA/IMA(2014–24)

8

2.ChiefFinancialOfficers(CFOs)

ConfidenceamongCFOsfallsinQ3,amidabigdeclineinneworders.

TheindicesreportedinthissectionreflectthesurveyresponsesofCFOswhoarepartofourbroaderglobalpanelofaccountantsandfinanceprofessionals.

ConfidenceamongCFOsrecordeda

moderatedeclineinQ3andisnowslightlybelowitshistoricalaverage.TheNew

OrdersIndexfellsharply,though,andiswellbelowaverage(seeChart15).TheConfidenceIndexforCFOsisjustbelowthatofthebroaderpanel(accountants,

auditors,etc.,aswellasCFOs),whiletheNewOrdersIndexismeaningfullylower.

TheCapitalExpenditureIndexforCFOs

fellmoderatelyafteraverylargegain

previously(seeChart16).Itremainsbelowitshistoricalaverage,althoughithasbeenmateriallyloweronseveraloccasionssinceRussiainvadedUkraine.Itremainslower

thantheindexforthebroaderpanel,but

notsignificantly.TheEmploymentIndex

increasedmoderatelyandisaboveits

average(seeChart16)andwellabove

thatofthebroaderpanel.Meanwhile,the

proportionofCFOsexperiencingincreasedoperatingcostsdeclinedbyalmost10

percentagepointsbutremainselevatedbyhistoricalstandards(see

Chart6

).

Allinall,thelatestresultsfromCFOspointtosomeincreaseincautioninQ3,and

areconsistentwithsomeslowinginglobalgrowth.Thelargefallintheproportionof

CFOsreportingincreasedoperatingcostsisawelcomedevelopment,nonetheless,

andpointstoaninflationarybackdropthatisbecomingmoreconducivetoareductioninthemagnitudeofcentralbanks’policy

restraint.Thatsaid,withcostconcerns

remainingonthehighsidehistorically,

policymakersstillneedtotreadcarefully.

ConfidenceamongCFOsdeclinedinQ3,andtherewasaverysharpfallintheNewOrdersIndex.

ThemessagefromtheCapital ExpenditureandEmploymentindiceswasmixed,withtheformerdecliningandthelatterrising.

CHART15:GECSglobalindicators–CFOsIndex

40

20

0

-20

-40

Medianoversurveyhistory

-60

-80Q32014Q32016Q32018Q32020Q32022Q32024

ConfidenceIndexOrdersIndex

Source:ACCA/IMA(2014–24)

CHART16:GECSglobalindicators–CFOsIndex

20

0

-20

-40

-60

-80

Medianoversurveyhistory

Q32014Q32016Q32018Q32020Q32022Q32024

CapitalExpenditureIndexEmploymentIndex

Source:ACCA/IMA(2014–24)

9

3.Theultimateyearofnationalelectionsandgeopoliticaluncertainties

Whileaccountantsaroundtheworld

againrankedmacroeconomicsasthehighestriskpriorityoverall,differencesacrosssectorspaintedatellingstory

abouthowtheprofessionismakingsenseoftoday’slandscape.

Worldwide,morevotersinhistorywill

haveheadedtothepollsbytheendof

2024,withatleast64countries,plus

theEuropeanUnion,holdingnational

elections,theresultsofwhichmayproveconsequentialforyearstocome.With

intensifyingconflictsintheMiddleEast

andthewarbetweenRussiaandUkraine,responsestotherisksectionofourthird-quarter2024(Q32024)GECSreport

revealhowchallengingithasbecomeforfinancialprofessionalstounderstandtheeconomicimpactsofthisunprecedentedcombinationofrisks.

Byregion,NorthAmericahadthelargest

proportionofrespondentstorank

‘economicinflation,recessionandinterestrates’astheirtopriskpriorityforQ32024.

Answerstotheopen-endedquestion,‘whatdoyoufeelisthemostunderestimatedriskfacingyourorganisation?’illustratethe

degreeofemergingthreatsfacing

businessesintoday’spoly-crisisenvironment.U.S.respondentspointedtoarangeof

scenariosfromtradetariffstochanging

cybersecurityreportingrequirementsandartificialintelligence(AI)laws.Afinancialmanagerfromamanufacturerinthe

Midwestsaid:‘theimplicationsofthesearehardtomeasure’.Othersalsoshowed

growingconcernsabouttheshortageof

skills,notleastintheaccountancy

profession.AcontrollerfromanotherU.S.

manufacturerrepliedmorecandidlyabout

blindspotswithinherowncompany,sayingthat‘thebiggestriskstomyorganisationareinternal.Withnoconsistentinternalcontrols

orcentralisedriskassessment,Ibelievetherearethingshappeningthatcould

causeirreparabledamageinthefuture’.

‘Bearish’isthebestwaytodescriberisk

surveyresponsesfromtheUK,which

accentuatedwhatACCA’schiefeconomistwroteintheprevioussectionaboutfallingconfidencedespitelong-awaitedeconomicgrowth.‘Themostunderestimatedriskforusisthereductionincharitabledonations

ifthenewgovernmentincreasestaxes’,

saidanACCAmemberfromthenot-for-

profitsector.Thisrespondentalsosaidthatthebiggestimpacttheeconomyhadon

hisbusinesswas‘scalingbackinvestmentincapitalprojectsandstaff’.

Mostrespondentsexpressedconcerns

abouttheupcomingBudgetspeech.One

saidthatthemostunderestimatedriskwas‘uncertaintyaroundchangestotaxation

andemploymentlawandhowthatimpactsrecruitment,whichisalreadydifficult.Iworryhowwewillbeabletoprovideacceptablelevelsofsupportforourcustomers’.

Responsesfromthoseworkingatsmall-to-medium-sizedenterprises(SMEs)

alsostruckchordsabouttheincreasing

riskoverloadandthinningcapacity.Onecommentedhow‘highertaxationand

increasedworkers’rightsarehittingsmallbusinessemployershard’whileanother

ACCAmemberadded,‘Ihaveneverseensuchuncertaintysincequalifying’.

Respondentsfromthecorporatesector

rankedmacroeconomicsasthehighestriskpriority,butresponsesfromaroundtheworld

showedhowinterconnectedeverythingis.Forexample,oneACCAmemberin

Australia,notedthe‘increasingpossibilityofaglobalAI-triggeredcrash’whilealsosuggestingthatautomationwillhelp

eliminateinefficiencies.Afinancedirector

atatransportationcompanyin

温馨提示

  • 1. 本站所有资源如无特殊说明,都需要本地电脑安装OFFICE2007和PDF阅读器。图纸软件为CAD,CAXA,PROE,UG,SolidWorks等.压缩文件请下载最新的WinRAR软件解压。
  • 2. 本站的文档不包含任何第三方提供的附件图纸等,如果需要附件,请联系上传者。文件的所有权益归上传用户所有。
  • 3. 本站RAR压缩包中若带图纸,网页内容里面会有图纸预览,若没有图纸预览就没有图纸。
  • 4. 未经权益所有人同意不得将文件中的内容挪作商业或盈利用途。
  • 5. 人人文库网仅提供信息存储空间,仅对用户上传内容的表现方式做保护处理,对用户上传分享的文档内容本身不做任何修改或编辑,并不能对任何下载内容负责。
  • 6. 下载文件中如有侵权或不适当内容,请与我们联系,我们立即纠正。
  • 7. 本站不保证下载资源的准确性、安全性和完整性, 同时也不承担用户因使用这些下载资源对自己和他人造成任何形式的伤害或损失。

评论

0/150

提交评论