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AggregateDemandandSupplyAggregateDemandandSupplyAggregateDemand(AD)AggregateDemandThesumofallexpenditureintheeconomyoveraperiodoftimeMacroconcept–WHOLEeconomyFormula:AD=C+I+G+(X-M)C=ConsumptionSpendingI=InvestmentSpendingG=GovernmentSpending(X-M)=differencebetweenspendingonimportsandreceiptsfromexports(BalanceofPayments)AggregateDemandCurveShowstheoveralllevelofspendingatdifferentpricelevelsNote–Inflationusedfortheverticalaxis–followsfromnewthinkingonthederivationofADcurvesfromthelikesofDavidRomer@UniversityofCalifornia–AssumesCentralBanksdonottargetthemoneysupplybutshortterminterestratesAggregateDemandCurveWhydoesitslopedownfromlefttoright?AssumeBankofEnglandsetsshortterminterestratesAssumeariseinthepricelevelwillbemetbyariseininterestratesAnyincreaseininterestrateswillraisethecostofborrowing:ConsumptionspendingwillfallInvestmentwillfallInternationalcompetitivenesswilldecrease–exportsfall,importsriseTherefore–ariseinthepricelevelleadstolowerlevelsofaggregatedemandAggregateDemandCurveTheADdiagram:Inflationontheverticalaxis–assumeaninitial‘targetrate’of2.0%(asmeasuredbytheHICPorCPI)RealGDPorRealNationaleorRealOutputontheverticalaxis(shownbytheinitialY)AggregateDemandCurveInflationRealNationaleAD2.0%Y1Ataninflationlevelof2%,theADcurvegivesalevelofoutputofY1ThislevelofoutputwillbeassociatedwithaparticularlevelofunemploymentwhichwewillcallU=5%U=5%3.0%Y2Atahigherrateofinflation(3.0%)risinginterestratesmeanthatC,Iand(X-M)allhavenegativeeffectsonAD–NYfallstoY2U=7%ThelowerlevelofNationalerequiresfewerunitsoflabour–unemploymentrisesto7%shownbyU=7%ShiftsintheAggregateDemandCurveInflationRealNationaleAD2.0%Y1U=5%ShiftsinADwillbecausedbychangesinfactorsaffectingC,I,Gand(X-M)(exogenousfactors)e.g.increasingetaxratesaffectconsumptionAD2Y2U=2%AnyexogenousfactorcausingC,IorGtorise,oratradesurpluscausesashifttotherightinADThiswouldcauseariseinnationale(economicgrowth)andleadtoafallinunemployment(U=2%)(andviceversa)ConsumptionExpenditureExogenousfactorsaffectingconsumption:Taxrateses–shorttermandexpectedeoverlifetimeWageincreasesCreditInterestratesWealthPropertySharesSavingsBondsInvestmentExpenditureSpendingon:MachineryEquipmentBuildingsInfrastructureInfluencedby:ExpectedratesofreturnInterestratesExpectationsoffuturesalesExpectationsoffutureinflationratesGovernmentSpendingDefenceHealthSocialWelfareEducationForeignAidRegionsIndustryLawandOrderImportSpending(negative)Goodsandservicesboughtfromabroad–representsanoutflowoffundsfromtheUK(reducesAD)ExportEarnings(Positive)Goodsandservicessoldabroad–representsaflowoffundsintotheUK(raisesAD)KeyVariablesMacroeconomicPolicyFiscalPolicyGovernmente(taxesandborrowing)GovernmentSpendingMonetaryPolicyInterestRates(BankofEngland)AggregateSupply(AS)CapacityoftheEconomyCostsofProductionTechnologyEducationandTrainingIncentivesTaxregimeCapitalstockProductivityLabourMarketAggregateSupplyInflationRealNationaleTheshapeoftheAScurveisimportantindeterminingtheeintheeconomyASYfThisshapereflectsaKeynesianviewoftheAScurve.Yfrepresents‘FullEmploymentOutput’–atthispointtheeconomyisworkingtofullcapacityandcannotproduceanymore.Y1AnoutputlevelofY1wouldsuggesttheeconomyisworkingbelowfullcapacityandtherewouldbewidespreadunemployment.EconomystartstooverheatBetweenY1andYf,increasesincapacityarepossiblebutthenearertheeconomygetstoYf,themoreproblemsareexperiencedwithacquiringresourcestoboostproduction(productionbottlenecks)especiallylabourskillsshortages.AggregateSupplyInflationRealNationaleAS1AS2Yf1Yf2IncreasesincapacitycanoccurasaresultofashiftinAS(akintoashiftoutwardsoftheProductionPossibilityFrontier)(PPF)AggregateSupplyInflationRealNationaleSRASShortrunaggregatesupply(SRAS)assumesfirmsonlyabletoincreaseoutputathighercosts(e.g.overtimepayments)therebypushinguppricelevelSRAS1SRAS2SRASassumescostssuchasoverallwagerateremainfixed,changesinsuchcostscauseashiftintheSRAScurve(exogenousshocks–inputcosts)AggregateSupplyInflationRealNationaleLRASClassicaleconomistsassumethelongrunaggregatesupplycurve(LRAS)isvertical(perfectlyinelastic).Thisisbecausetheybelievethatinthelongrun,therewillbenounemploymentofresourcesbecausemarketswillclear,thuswhatevertherateofinflation,firmswillsupplythemaximumcapacityoftheeconomy.YfAggregateSupplyForouranalysis,wewillassumetheAScurvelookslikethis!InflationRealNationaleASPuttingADandAStogetherInflationRealNationaleASYfAD2.0%Y1Inthissituation,theeconomywouldbeoperatingatlessthancapacity,therewouldbeunemploymentandtheeconomymightbegrowingonlyslowly.AD1Y22.5%AshiftintheADcurvetoAD1asaresultofa