GSMA《2023欧洲移动经济报告》

TheMobile

Economy

Europe2023

TheGSMAisaglobalorganisationunifyingthemobile

ecosystemtodiscover,developanddeliverinnovation

foundationaltopositivebusinessenvironmentsand

societalchange.Ourvisionistounlockthefullpowerof

connectivitysothatpeople,industryandsocietythrive.

Representingmobileoperatorsandorganisationsacross

themobileecosystemandadjacentindustries,theGSMA

deliversforitsmembersacrossthreebroadpillars:

ConnectivityforGood,IndustryServicesandSolutions,

andOutreach.Thisactivityincludesadvancingpolicy,

tacklingtoday’sbiggestsocietalchallenges,underpinning

thetechnologyandinteroperabilitythatmakemobile

work,andprovidingtheworld’slargestplatformto

convenethemobileecosystemattheMWCandM360

seriesofevents.

Weinviteyoutofindoutmoreat

FollowtheGSMAonTwitter/X:@GSMA

GSMAIntelligenceisthedefinitivesourceofglobalmobile

operatordata,analysisandforecasts,andpublisherof

authoritativeindustryreportsandresearch.Ourdata

coverseveryoperatorgroup,networkandMVNOinevery

countryworldwide–fromAfghanistantoZimbabwe.Itis

themostaccurateandcompletesetofindustrymetrics

available,comprisingtensofmillionsofindividualdata

points,updateddaily.

GSMAIntelligenceisreliedonbyleadingoperators,

vendors,regulators,financialinstitutionsandthird-party

industryplayers,tosupportstrategicdecision-making

andlong-terminvestmentplanning.Thedataisusedas

anindustryreferencepointandisfrequentlycitedbythe

mediaandbytheindustryitself.

Ourteamofanalystsandexpertsproduceregular

thought-leadingresearchreportsacrossarangeof

industrytopics.

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Copyright©2023GSMA

Contents

Executivesummary2

1.Themobileindustryinnumbers9

2.Mobileindustrytrends24

2.1Unlockingtherevenuepotentialof5G25

2.2Transformingnetworks27

2.3Reignitingsatelliteconnectivity28

2.4ExploringtheroleofgenerativeAI30

2.5Shiftingtocircularity32

2.6Growingfintechopportunities34

3.Mobileindustryimpact36

3.1Operatorprogresswithsustainability37

3.2Mobile'simpactontheSDGs38

4.Mobileindustryenablers40

4.1GraspingcontrolofEurope’sdigitalfuture41

Executive

summary

DigitaltechnologiesareplayingacrucialroleinThecontributionfrommobiletechnologiesand

EuropeaseconomiesadvancetheireffortstoservicestosocialandeconomicprogressinEurope

embracegreenanddigitaltransformation.5Gcontinuestogrow.5Gconnectivityandservicesare

connectivityisservingasacatalystforGDPgrowthsettogenerateeconomicbenefitsof€153billionin

andapowerfultooltohelpcombatclimatechange.In2030.Itisthereforeimperativethatstakeholderstake

thecomingyears,themobileecosystemwillfocusonstepstoensurecontinuedinvestmentandthelong-

improving5Gcoverageinruralareasandincreasingtermsustainabilityofthemobileindustry.Thismeans

investmenttosupportthegrowingadoptionofaresetofthepolicyframeworkgoverningthedigital

usecasesenabledby5Gstandalone(SA)andcommunicationsecosystem,andeffectivespectrum

5G-Advancedtechnologies.policytosupporttheDigitalDecadegoals.

5Gconnectivityandservices

aresettogenerateeconomic

benefitsof€153billionin2030

Executivesummary2/44

Keytrendsshapingthe

mobileecosystem

Unlocking5G’srevenuepotentialReignitingsatelliteconnectivity

InEurope,attentionisshiftingto5Gmonetisation,Satellitebroadbandisbeingreinventedthrough

asoperatorsseekreturnsontheirsignificantthelowEarthorbit(LEO)constellationmodel.This

capitaloutlays.Speed-basedtariffsandbundlesunderpinsagrowinglistofpartnershipsbetween

thatpackagecontentandserviceswithmobilemobileoperatorsandsatellitecompanies.Inmany

subscriptionsofferwaystogrowaveragerevenuecases,operatorsarepartneringwithsatellite

peruser(ARPU)inafiercelycompetitivemarket.companiesforwholesalesatellitebackhaulaccess.

OperatorscanalsolooktoearlyexamplesofsuccessDirect-to-device(D2D)agreementsarealsogrowing

with5Gfixedwirelessaccess(FWA)inAustriaandinnumber,providingsatelliteconnectivitydirectly

Italy.tosmartphonesandIoTdeviceswithouttheneed

foradishorotherreceivingequipment.Muchof

Thetransitionto5GSAshouldaddfurtherimpetus

thisstemsfromtheintegrationofnon-terrestrial

to5Gmonetisationeffortsbyintroducingnew

networks(NTNs)intothe3GPP's5Gnewradio(NR)

capabilities,includingimprovedsupportfornetwork

standard,meaningsatelliteconnectivitycanbe

slicing.While5GSAdeploymentsinEuropehave

accessedseamlesslyondevicesupdatedto

beentrailingotherregions,recentlaunchesby

Release17orlater.

OrangeSpain,MovistarandVodafoneUKpoint

togrowingmomentum.Similarly,private5G

deploymentsaregainingtractioninEurope,offering

opportunitiestocreatenewrevenuestreamsand

serveadditionalenterprisecustomers.

Transformingnetworks

Thereisaneedtorethinkthedesignoftelecoms

networkstomeetevolvingconnectivity

requirementsandenabletherapidexpansionof

data-driventechnologies(AIandweb3.0).Aswell

asinvestmentsininfrastructurerollout,thisnetwork

transformationentailsthesoftwarisationand

virtualisationofnetworkfunctions,aswellascloud-

nativeanddisaggregatednetworkarchitectures.

Tomanageincreasingcomplexity,operatorsneed

toinvestheavilyinnetworkautomation,including

theuseofAIandmachinelearning,aswellas

softwareskills.Theseallowcustomisedconnectivity

solutionstobeprovided,aswellasaddedservices

andfunctionality(suchasedgecloud),whichcanbe

offeredtocustomersusingstandardisedinterfaces

(networkasaservice).

Executivesummary3/44

ExploringtheroleofgenerativeAIShiftingtocircularity

IthasbeenlessthanayearsinceChatGPTCircularityisapriorityforpolicymakersandindustry

launched,introducingmuchoftheworldtoplayers.Thisinvolvesconsideringtherightuseof

generativeAI.Sincethen,competitorshaveemergedmaterials,developinglong-lastingdevicesandusing

andbusinesseshavebeguntoexplorehowtouserecyclablematerials.However,behaviouralchange

thetechnology.Formobileoperators,therangeofamongconsumersisneededtoextendtheaverage

generativeAIapplicationsisbroad,coveringareasthree-yeardeviceusageperiod.Governmentsand

includingcodedevelopmentsupport,networkecosystemplayersareworkingtogethertoraise

management,customercareandcustomisedawarenessandincentiviseconsumers.InEurope,

propositiondevelopment.operatorsareattheforefrontwithplanstopromote

therecyclingofmobilephones,otherdevicesand

Despitethepotentialtoreapsignificantbenefits

networkequipment.

fromtheapplicationofadvancedAI,ethical

concernsaroundthetechnologystillneedtobe

addressed.MobileoperatorsmustalsoupskillstaffGrowingfintechopportunities

andrecruitexternalexpertisetotakefulladvantage

4G/5GusersinEuropeareincreasinglyrelyingon

oftheAIopportunity.

theirsmartphonesforfinancialservices.Theshifthas

drivenenhancementsinthefintechsector,including

newsolutionsforcustomersandthemodernisation

oftraditionalbankingsystems.Operatorsinthe

regionaremakingpartnershipmovestocapitalise

ontheshiftoffinancialservicestodigitalchannels.

Keymobileindustry

milestonesto2030

Over85%mobile87%mobileinternet3Gconnectionsfall574million

internetpenetrationpenetrationbelow15million5Gconnections

2GadoptionfallsOver500million4Gadoptionfalls

69%4Gadoption

below1%uniquesubscribersto20%

Over158million92%subscriber5Gadoption89%smartphone

5Gconnectionspenetrationexceeds60%adoption

20232024202520262027202820292030

Over90%

4Gadoptionfalls

33%5Gadoption70%5Gadoptionsmartphone

below50%

adoption

83%smartphone5Gadoption88%smartphone87%5G

adoptionexceeds50%adoptionadoption

3Gadoptionfalls85%smartphone3Gadoptionfalls4Gadoption

below5%adoptionbelow2%fallsto12%

Executivesummary4/44

Policiesforgrowthandinnovation

ForEurope,achievinggloballeadershipintheEffectivespectrumpolicycanhelpspurstrongand

digitaleconomyandenvironmentalsustainabilitysustainableeconomicgrowthandensure5Gfor

requiresambitiousinfrastructuretargets,includingallEuropeancitizensandbusinessesbytheend

full5Gcoverage.However,significantdisparitiesofthedecade.ThereviewofEUspectrumpolicy

persistin5Gdeployment,particularlyinruralpresentsanopportunityforreform,allowingfor

areas,withanestimatedinvestmentgapofatleastfurtherharmonisationintermsofspectrumlicensing

€174billiontomeettheDigitalDecadeconnectivityapproachandalignmentofspectrumpolicywith

targets.TosecureEurope'sdigitalfuture,thetheDigitalDecadeobjectives.Tomakespectrum

regionshouldfocusonthefollowingkeypolicypolicyaleverforinvestmentandgrowth,regulators

areas:adigitalinfrastructureframeworkandtheshouldconsidermeasuressuchasensuringlong-

simplificationofregulation;buildingscalethroughtermlicencetermsandalignmentwithinvestor

in-marketconsolidation;andpro-investmenttimeframes,preventinginefficientspectrumawards,

spectrumpolicy.andincreasingtransparencyinannualfees.

Executivesummary5/44

TheMobileEconomy

SmartphonesLicensedcellular

PercentageofconnectionsIoTconnections

Europe(excludinglicensedcellularIoT)

Uniquemobile2022

subscribers81%

2022Total

connections

2022496m90%92%206m

202220302030

CAGR91%2030

2030Penetrationrate

507mPercentageofpopulation2022-20300.3%501m

MobileinternetOperatorrevenues

usersandinvestment

Operatorcapex

20222022Total

464m85%87%€156bnrevenues

20222030€198bn

2030PenetrationrateCAGR203020232030

479mPercentageofpopulation2022-20300.4%€162bn

Mobile'scontribution

SIMconnectionsPercentageofconnectionsPublicfunding

(excludinglicensedcellularIoT)4G(excludinglicensedcellularIoT)toGDP

2022

2022714m202275%2022€910bn4.3%ofGDP€110bn

Mobileecosystemcontributionto

publicfunding(beforeregulatory

2030734m203012%2030€1trillionandspectrumfees)

Penetrationrate

Percentageofpopulation130%134%

20222030Percentageofconnections

5G(excludinglicensedcellularIoT)Employment

2022

CAGR0.9million

2022-203011%

1.3millionjobsjobs

0.3%2030Directlysupportedbythemobileecosystemin2022supported

87%indirectly

SmartphonesLicensedcellular

PercentageofconnectionsIoTconnections

(excludinglicensedcellularIoT)

Uniquemobile2022

subscribers81%

2022Total

connections

2022496m90%92%206m

202220302030

CAGR91%2030

2030Penetrationrate

507mPercentageofpopulation2022-20300.3%501m

MobileinternetOperatorrevenues

usersandinvestment

Operatorcapex

20222022Total

464m85%87%€156bnrevenues

20222030€198bn

2030PenetrationrateCAGR203020232030

479mPercentageofpopulation2022-20300.4%€162bn

Mobile'scontribution

SIMconnectionsPercentageofconnectionsPublicfunding

(excludinglicensedcellularIoT)4G(excludinglicensedcellularIoT)toGDP

2022

2022714m202275%2022€910bn4.3%ofGDP€110bn

Mobileecosystemcontributionto

publicfunding(beforeregulatory

2030734m203012%2030€1trillionandspectrumfees)

Penetrationrate

Percentageofpopulation130%134%

20222030Percentageofconnections

5G(excludinglicensedcellularIoT)Employment

2022

CAGR0.9million

2022-203011%

1.3millionjobsjobs

0.3%2030Directlysupportedbythemobileecosystemin2022supported

87%indirectly

Subscriberandtechnologytrendsforkeymarkets

FranceTechnologymix*Subscriberpenetration

8%2%10%

14%202293%

203096%

20222030Smartphoneadoption

202285%

90%

76%

203094%

22G3G+14+76+8+Q104G5G+90+Q

GermanyTechnologymix*Subscriberpenetration

2%6%

17%202291%

203094%

20222030Smartphoneadoption

202282%

81%94%

203093%

22G3G+81+17+Q64G5G+94+Q

ItalyTechnologymix*Subscriberpenetration

8%8%14%202294%

7%

203096%