2024年中全球投资展望

2024MMKKTTGGMM00772244AA//SS--33772328404144--11//1166(AI)23-4345-75678-148-9101112131415——6

12——2MMKKTTGGMM00772244AA//SS--33772328404144--22//116660%

100%8

9(TransitionScenario)3.52024

6Crafts

(2021)Crafts

(2021)0102030Steam(UK)1760s-1840sElectricity1880s-1940sInformation

andcommunication

tech

1970s-2010sAI

&

low-carbon

transition2024-2030sCapital

spendingTotalfactor

productivity?资本支出总要素生产力2024 20301970201018801940176018403MMKKTTGGMM00772244AA//SS--33772328404144--22//11666122024

7124MMKKTTGGMM00772244AA//SS--33772328404144--22//1166120202024

7100••AlphabetMeta01210030510152025305MMKKTTGGMM00772244AA//SS--33772328404144--22//116626

128-9••LSEGDatastream2024

7MSCIMSCI0122005-202432005201020152020MicrosoftAppleUKGermany6MMKKTTGGMM00772244AA//SS--33772328404144--22//11663••Helen

Jewell–2024

72015202020252030203520407MKTGM0724A/S-3738014-7/16500BGIFSemianalytics2024

5(Bernstein)2022/—2022-2030••16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%20222024202620282030EstimatesIEA

estimate128MKTGM0724A/S-3738014-8/161%0.1%1.5%—HaverAnalytics2024

7—20 70-801970-202420 70Simona

Paravani-Mellinghoff—••3 生产力大幅提升0%1%2%3%4%1%2%3%4%197019801990200020102020Informationtechinvestment(%of

GDP)Productivitygrowth

(right)9MKTGM0724A/S-3738014-9/16MacrohistoryJorda2017HaverAnalytics2024

6—Tom

Donilon••1940-20241701207020-3010MKTGM0724A/S-3738014-10/16Haver2024

32000

20192019—21 4080%64%—David

Giordano–2000-201986420-2-0.50.51.52.5••11MKTGM0724A/S-3738014-11/16LSEG

Datastream2024

31990Datastream—15-64/1970-2024Carrie

King—354555657585501001502002503001970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Healthcare

sector

vs

broad

market

indexDependencyratio

(right)••12MKTGM0724A/S-3738014-12/162024

610MSCI—20Yuichi

Chiguchi—0%12%10%8%6%4%2%BenchmarkCurrency

hedgedUnhedged••13MKTGM0724A/S-3738014-13/16••••3%•2024

76-122024

714MKTGM0724A/S-3738014-14/16