IEF-2024年8月石油市场月报比较分析（英）-25正式版

August2024

SummaryandOilMarketContext

Demand

Forecastsforshort-termglobaloilconsumptionhaveslightlyreduceddivergencecomparedtolastmonth.OPEChasreviseditsglobaldemand

growthdownby0.1mb/dto2.1mb/dfor2024y/yforthefirsttimethisyear,butitsforecastsarestillhigherbymorethanamillionbarrelsaday

comparedtotheIEAandEIA.ThisslightrevisionbyOPECfeaturesrealdatacollectedforthefirstquarterof2024and,incertaininstances,the

secondquarterof2024.Additionally,itreflectsamodestdecreaseingrowthexpectationsforChineseoildemandin2024.Incontrast,theIEAand

EIAexpectglobaldemandgrowthof0.9mb/dand1.1mb/d,respectively,forthesameyear.OPEChasalmostmaintaineditsforecastgrowthfor

2025at1.8mb/d,whiletheEIAhasreviseditsestimatesdownby0.2mb/dto1.6mb/d,comparedtothe1.8mb/dgrowthinlastmonth’sestimates.

TheIEAhasalsoreviseddownitsglobaldemandgrowthforecastsbyabout0.1mb/dfor2024y/y,whilekeepingthe2025forecastunchanged.

Supply

OPEChasmaintaineditsforecastofoilsupplygrowthfromnon-DeclarationofCooperation(non-DoC)countriesataround1.3mb/din2024,and

keptitsforecastgrowthfor2025at1.1mb/dy/y.ThegrowthisprimarilyfueledbyproductionincreasesinBrazil,theUS,andCanadaduringboth

years.TheEIAhaskeptitsforecastsfornon-OPECsupplygrowthat0.8mb/dfor2024y/y,whileslightlydowngradingthe2025growthestimateby

0.1mb/dto1.6mb/dy/y.Meanwhile,theIEAhasmaintaineditsnon-DoCsupplygrowthprojectionsat1.5mb/dfor2024y/y,whilerevisingits

supplygrowthforecastupwardby0.1mb/dto1.7mb/din2025y/y.Thedisparityamongtheshort-termnon-DoCsupplygrowthforecastsfromthese

threeorganizationsisexpectedtoreach0.2mb/dfor2024and0.6mb/dfor2025.

EconomicGrowth(GDP)andOilDemand

TherecentlyreleasedeconomicforecastsoftheOECD,IMF,andWorldBankindicatenotablegrowthdisparitiesfor2025thatunderscore

uncertaintyinrelationtoeconomicgrowthandoildemand.TheOECDandIMFprojectasteadygrowthtrajectoryat3.21percentand3.2percent

respectively,whiletheWorldBankgivesamorecautiousoutlookfor2025at2.7percent.EnergydemandgrowthremainscloselyalignedwithGDP

growthmainlyindevelopingandemergingeconomies.Althougheconomicrecessionstypicallyresultintemporarydeclinesinoildemand,historical

trendssuggestthattheseimpactsarelimitedandrapidlyoffsetbysustainedincreasesinoildemand.Thisreboundisoftendrivenbyfactorssuchas

lowprices,opportunitiestoreplenishcommercialandstrategicstocksordemandsupportfrommonetaryandfiscalpolicies,includingquantitative

easing.Overthepasttwodecades,globaloildemandestimatesfromtheIEAandEIAhaveconsistentlyexceededthosefromOPEC.However,

sincetheaftermathoftheCOVID-19pandemic,increasinglyambitiousassumptionsregardingoildemandsubstitution-fueledbyrapid

advancementsincleantechnologiesandefficiencyimprovements-havegainedtraction,potentiallyreversingthistrend(seenextpage).

CompoundOilMarketVolatility

Oilmarketsareexposedtomultiplelayersofuncertaintymanifestindivergingeconomicandoildemandoutlooks,broadeningmilitaryconflictsin

boththeMiddleEastandEurope,recentstockmarketcorrectionsaffectingshortandlongoilfuturespositions,andtheuncertainoutcomeofUS

Electionsonenergyandclimatepolicy.Digitaldisruptions,anddatadependencyofmonetarypolicyfurthercloudoilmarketsstability.Thoughasoft

landingisstillconsideredmoreprobablethanaglobaldownturn,riskanduncertaintyprevailandcaneasilyshiftconsensus.

2

Economicgrowthandoildemandovertime

1108%

105

6%

100

4%

95

2%

90

0%

85

-2%

80

75-4%

GDPminGDPmaxIEAEIAOPEC

Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR,IMF,OECDandWorldBank

Note:TherangebetweentheminimumandmaximumGDPvaluesreflectsthedisparityamongthethreereportedfiguresfromtheIMF,WorldBank,andOECDfor

eachyear.OilDemand(right-lines)andGDPGrowth(left-bars).Thedottedbarsandlinesrepresentforecastedestimates.

3

Summaryof2023-2025Balances

•OPEChasreviseditsglobaldemandgrowthdownto2.1mb/dfor2024y/yforthefirsttimethisyear,from2.2mb/dinthelastrevision,

whilemaintainingitsforecastfor2025.

•DespitetheslightrevisiondownfromOPECthismonth,thedivergenceinglobaldemandgrowthforecastsisstillhighacrossthethree

agencies,withmorethanamillionbarrelsperdaydifferencein2024.

•TheEIAhaskeptitsforecastforglobaldemandgrowththisyearat1.1mb/dwhiledowngradingitsforecastbyapproximately0.2mb/d

to1.6mb/dfor2025y/y.

lowestforecast2023

2023-2025BalanceSummary

20242025

highestforecast20232023Y/Y1Q242Q243Q244Q2420242024Y/Y1Q252Q253Q254Q2520252025Y/Y

IEA102.12.1101.3102.8104.0103.8103.00.9102.3103.6105.0104.8103.91.0

GlobalDemandOPEC102.22.6103.1103.7104.8105.6104.32.1104.9105.4106.8107.3106.11.8

EIA101.82.0101.8102.8103.5103.6102.91.1104.0104.2104.9105.1104.51.6

IEA45.70.144.845.645.945.945.5-0.144.845.245.945.745.4-0.1

OECDDemandOPEC45.70.145.045.846.346.245.80.245.145.946.446.345.90.1

EIA45.60.144.845.446.246.345.70.045.745.446.246.445.90.2

IEA56.42.056.557.258.157.957.41.057.558.459.159.158.61.1

Non-OECDDemandOPEC56.62.558.257.958.659.458.51.959.859.560.461.060.21.7

EIA56.21.957.057.457.357.357.21.158.458.858.758.758.61.4

Non-OPECSupply*and

OPECNGLs

IEA74.82.474.975.776.176.575.81.076.577.778.178.577.71.9

EIA74.92.475.175.575.976.275.70.876.177.077.878.277.31.6

Non-DoCSupply*and

DoCNGLs

IEA59.82.660.361.361.862.061.31.561.963.063.463.663.01.7

OPEC60.02.661.061.361.261.761.31.362.362.362.463.062.51.1

EIA60.02.560.561.362.062.161.51.561.862.663.363.662.81.4

CallonOPEC

IEA27.3-0.326.427.127.927.327.2-0.225.826.026.926.426.3-0.9

EIA26.9-0.426.727.327.627.427.30.427.927.227.126.927.30.0

IEA42.3-0.541.041.542.241.841.7-0.640.440.641.641.240.9-0.7

CallonDoCCrudeOPEC42.2-0.142.142.443.643.843.00.842.643.144.544.343.60.6

EIA41.8-0.641.341.541.641.541.5-0.442.241.641.641.541.70.3

GlobalStockChangeand

Miscellaneousto

Balance**

IEA0.10.50.0

OPEC-0.2-0.9-1.5

EIA0.0-0.1-0.7-0.9-0.7-0.6-1.00.00.30.4-0.1

Source:IEF,IEAOMR,OPECMOMR,EIASTEO*Includesbiofuelsandprocessinggains**OnlyEIApublishesaforecastforglobalstockchanges

4

Summaryof2023-2025Balances

•TheEIAhasrevisedupitsforecastsforOECDdemandby0.1mb/dfor2024y/y,andthisincreasewasoffsetbya

downwardrevisioningrowthfromnon-OECDcountries,whichkeptglobaldemandunchanged.TheEIA’s2025global

demandgrowthforecastshowsadownwardrevisionof0.2mb/dy/y.

•TheIEAhasreviseddownitsglobaldemandgrowthforecastsby0.1mb/dforboththefullyear2024andthefullyear2025.

•OPECreleaseditsforecastswithnochangeinnon-DoCsupplygrowthfor2024and2025y/y.

Month-on-MonthRevisions:2023-2025BalanceSummary

202320242025

20232023Y/Y1Q242Q243Q244Q2420242024Y/Y1Q252Q253Q254Q2520252025Y/Y

IEA0.00.00.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.10.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.10.0

GlobalDemandOPEC0.00.0-0.4-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.4-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.1

EIA0.00.00.10.20.0-0.10.00.0-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.1-0.2

IEA0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

OECDDemandOPEC0.00.0-0.10.00.00.00.00.0-0.10.00.00.00.00.0

EIA0.00.00.00.30.10.00.10.1-0.10.0-0.10.00.0-0.1

IEA0.00.00.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.10.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.10.0

Non-OECDDemandOPEC0.00.0-0.3-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.3-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.1

EIA0.00.00.1-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.10.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.10.0

Non-OPECSupply*and

OPECNGLs

IEA0.0-0.10.00.1-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.10.00.10.00.00.00.1

EIA0.0-0.10.00.0-0.1-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.1

Non-DoCSupply*and

DoCNGLs

IEA0.0-0.10.10.0-0.2-0.20.00.00.00.10.1-0.10.10.1

OPEC0.0-0.10.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.10.10.10.00.00.0

EIA0.0-0.10.00.0-0.1-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.1

CallonOPEC

IEA0.00.10.0-0.20.10.00.00.00.0-0.2-0.20.0-0.1-0.1

EIA0.00.10.10.10.00.00.10.10.10.00.00.00.0-0.1

IEA0.00.1-0.1-0.10.10.1-0.1-0.10.0-0.2-0.20.0-0.2-0.1

CallonDoCCrudeOPEC0.00.1-0.4-0.10.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.1-0.2-0.1

EIA0.00.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.1-0.10.00.0-0.1

GlobalStockChangeand

Miscellaneousto

Balance**

IEA0.00.00.0

OPEC0.00.40.4

EIA0.0-0.1-0.1-0.10.0-0.1-0.10.00.00.00.0

Source:IEF,IEAOMR,OPECMOMR,EIASTEO*Includesbiofuelsandprocessinggains**OnlyEIApublishesaforecastforglobalstockchanges

5

2024OutlookComparison

6

Summaryof2024BalancesandRevisions

•OPEChasreviseddownitsforecastforglobaloildemandgrowthin2024by0.1mb/d,bringingthenewprojectionto

2.1mb/dy/y.ThismarksthefirsttimeOPEChascutits2024globaldemandgrowthestimatethisyear,althoughits

forecastsremainhigherbymorethanamillionbarrelsadaycomparedtotheprojectionsfromtheIEAandEIA.

•EIAhasrevisedupitsOECDdemandgrowthby0.1mb/dforthefullyearin2024,whiletheIEAkeptitsgrowth

forecastunchanged.

2024BalanceSummary

UpdatedForecastRevisionstoLastMonth'sForecast

1Q242Q243Q244Q2420242024Y/Y1Q242Q243Q244Q2420242024Y/Y

IEA101.3102.8104.0103.8103.00.90.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1

GlobalDemandOPEC103.1103.7104.8105.6104.32.1-0.4-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1

EIA101.8102.8103.5103.6102.91.10.10.20.0-0.10.00.0

IEA44.845.645.945.945.5-0.10.00.00.00.00.00.0

OECDDemandOPEC45.045.846.346.245.80.2-0.10.00.00.00.00.0

EIA44.845.446.246.345.70.00.00.30.10.00.10.1

IEA56.557.258.157.957.41.00.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1

Non-OECDDemandOPEC58.257.958.659.458.51.9-0.3-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1

EIA57.057.457.357.357.21.10.1-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1

Non-OPECSupply*and

OPECNGLs

IEA74.975.776.176.575.81.00.00.1-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.1

EIA75.175.575.976.275.70.80.00.0-0.1-0.2-0.1-0.1

Non-DoCSupply*and

DoCNGLs

IEA60.361.361.862.061.31.50.10.0-0.2-0.20.00.0

OPEC61.061.361.261.761.31.30.00.00.00.00.00.0

EIA60.561.362.062.161.51.50.00.0-0.1-0.2-0.1-0.1

CallonOPECCrude

IEA26.427.127.927.327.2-0.20.0-0.20.10.00.00.0

EIA26.727.327.627.427.30.40.10.10.00.00.10.1

IEA41.041.542.241.841.7-0.6-0.1-0.10.10.1-0.1-0.1

CallonDoCCrudeOPEC42.142.443.643.843.00.8-0.4-0.10.0-0.1-0.1-0.1

EIA41.341.541.641.541.5-0.40.10.10.10.10.10.1

GlobalStockChangeand

MisctoBalance**

IEA0.50.00.0

OPEC-0.9-1.50.4

EIA-0.1-0.7-0.9-0.7-0.6-0.1-0.1-0.10.0-0.1

Source:IEF,IEAOMR,OPECMOMR,EIASTEO*Includesbiofuelsandprocessinggains**OnlyEIApublishesaforecastforglobalstockchanges

7

Evolutionof2024AnnualDemandGrowthForecasts

•OPEChasreviseddownitsglobaloildemandgrowthin2024forthefirsttimethisyear,drivenbynewdatacollectionandslightly

slowerexpectationsforChineseoildemandgrowth.

•TheEIA's2024globaldemandgrowthforecastshowsanupwardrevisionforthefourthconsecutivemonth,drivenbyanincrease

inOECDdemandthismonth.

•IEAreviseditsglobaldemandgrowthforecastfor2024by0.1mb/dy/y.

GlobalDemandGrowth

Evolutionof2024Forecasts

y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday

2.5

OECDDemandGrowth

Evolutionof2024Forecasts

y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday

2.0

Non-OECDDemandGrowth

Evolutionof2024Forecasts

y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday

2.5

IEAOPECEIA

2.02.0

1.5

1.51.5

1.0

1.01.0

0.5

0.50.5

0.0

IEAOPECEIA

IEAOPECEIA

0.00.0

-0.5

ForecastVintageForecastVintageForecastVintage

Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR

8

OPECforecaststhattotalglobaldemandgrowthisexpectedtobe~1.2mb/dhigherthantheIEA’sforecastfor2024

2024DemandGrowthForecastsbyRegion

y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday

Rangein2024DemandGrowth

Forecasts

2.5

Global

1.2

IEA

TotalNon-OECD

0.9

OPEC

2.0

China

0.4EIA

TotalOECD

0.31.5

OtherNon-OECD

0.3

MiddleEast

0.2

1.0

Russia

0.2

OECDAmericas

0.5

0.1

OECDAsia

0.1

0.0

OECDEurope

0.1

India

0.1

-0.5

Africa

0.0

millionbarrelsperday

Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR

9

Evolutionof2024AnnualNon-OPECSupplyGrowthForecasts

•TheEIA’sy/ygrowthinnon-OPECsupplyhasbeenreviseddownforthethirdconsecutivemonth.

•TheIEA'sforecastforUSsupplygrowthisstillapproximately0.2mb/dhigherthanthoseforecastedbyOPECandtheEIA.

Non-OPECSupplyGrowth

Evolutionof2024Forecasts

y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday

1.8

Non-DoCSupplyGrowth

Evolutionof2024Forecasts

y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday

1.8

USSupplyGrowth

Evolutionof2024Forecasts

y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday

1.6

1.61.6

1.4

1.41.4

1.2

1.21.2

1.0

1.01.0

0.8

0.80.8

0.60.60.6

0.4

0.40.4

0.2

0.20.2

IEAOPECEIAIEAOPECEIA

IEAOPECEIA

0.00.00.0

ForecastVintageForecastVintageForecastVintage

Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMRNote:BeginninginMay2024,OPECstoppedpublishingsupplyforecastsfornon-OPECmembersoftheDeclaration

ofCooperation(DoCorcommonlyknownasOPEC+)

10

EIAandIEAhavealmostsimilarforecastsfortotalNon-DoC

supplygrowth,despitedifferencesintheirprojectionsfortheUS

andCanada

2024SupplyGrowthForecastsbyRegion

y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday

1.6

Rangein2024SupplyGrowth

Forecasts

TotalNon-DoC

0.3

1.4IEAOPECEIA

US

0.2

1.2

Africa

0.2

1.0

Canada

0.8

0.2

DoCNGLs

0.10.6

China

0.10.4

Norway

0.10.2

Brazil

0.1

0.0

MiddleEast

0.1

-0.2

S.Am.ex.Brazil

0.0

millionbarrelsperday

11

ThedisparitybetweenOPEC's'callonDoC'forecastandthose

fromtheIEAandEIArangesfrom1.3mb/dtoapproximately1.5

mb/d

2024CallonDoCCrudeandRecentDoCProductionLevelsmillionbarrelsperday

44.5

44.0

43.5

43.0

The“callonDoCcrude”isa

calculationandnota

forecastofactual

production.

42.5

42.0

41.5

41.0

The“callonDoCcrude”

estimateswhatOPEC+

wouldneedtoproduceto

balanceglobalsupplyand

demand.

40.5

40.0

39.5

1Q242Q243Q244Q242024Avg

Itisestimatedbysubtracting

aforecastfornon-DoC

productionandDoCNGLs

fromglobaldemand.

IEAOPEC

EIAApril'24DoCCrudeProductionLevel

HistoricalDoCCrudeProductionLevel

Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR

12

2025OutlookComparison

13

Summaryof2025BalancesandRevisions

•Thedivergenceinglobaloildemandgrowthforecastsamongmajoragenciesremainssignificant,despitethismonth’s

downwardrevisionbytheEIA.

•AlthoughOPEChasslightlyreviseditsestimatedownwardforglobaldemand,itslevelsremainapproximately0.8mb/d

abovetheIEAprojectionsand0.2mb/dhigherthanthoseoftheEIA.

•TheEIAhasreviseditsglobaldemandgrowthforecastdownwardbyapproximately0.2mb/dy/y

2025BalanceSummary

UpdatedForecastRevisionstoLastMonth'sForecast

1Q252Q253Q254Q2520252025Y/Y1Q252Q253Q254Q2520252025Y/Y

IEA102.3103.6105.0104.8103.91.00.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.10.0

GlobalDemandOPEC104.9105.4106.8107.3106.11.8-0.4-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.1

EIA104.0104.2104.9105.1104.51.6-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.1-0.2

IEA44.845.245.945.745.4-0.10.00.00.00.00.00.0

OECDDemandOPEC45.145.946.446.345.90.1-0.10.00.00.00.00.0

EIA45.745.446.246.445.90.2-0.10.0-0.10.00.0-0.1

IEA57.558.459.159.158.61.10.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.10.0

Non-OECDDemandOPEC59.859.560.461.060.21.7-0.3-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.1

EIA58.458.858.758.758.61.40.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.10.0

Non-OPECSupply*and

OPECNGLs

IEA76.577.778.178.577.71.90.00.10.00.00.00.1

EIA76.177.077.878.277.31.6-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.1

Non-DoCSupply*and

DoCNGLs

IEA61.963.063.463.663.01.70.00.10.1-0.10.10.1

OPEC62.362.362.463.062.51.1-0.10.10.10.00.00.0

EIA61.862.663.363.662.81.4-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.1

CallonOPEC

IEA25.826.026.926.426.3-0.90.0-0.2-0.20.0-0.1-0.1

EIA27.927.227.126.927.30.00.10.00.00.00.0-0.1

IEA40.440.641.641.240.9-0.70.0-0.2-0.20.0-0.2-0.1

CallonDoCCrudeOPEC42.643.144.544.343.60.6-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.1-0.2-0.1

EIA42.241.641.641.541.70.30.10.1-0.10.00.0-0.1

GlobalStockChangeand

EIA-1.00.00.30.4-0.1-0.10.00.00.00.0

Misc.toBalance**

Source:IEF,IEAOMR,OPECMOMR,EIASTEO*Includesbiofuelsandprocessinggains**OnlyEIApublishesaforecastforglobalstockchanges

14

Thedivergenceinglobaloildemandbetweenthethreeagenciesin

4Q25isexpectedtobemorethandoublethedivergenceprojected

for2Q24

2024-25GlobalDemandmillionbarrelsperday

108

107

106

105

104

103

102

101

100

99

1Q242Q243Q244Q241Q252Q253Q254Q25

IEAOPECEIAIEApreviousOPECpreviousEIAprevious

Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR

15

Evolutionof2025AnnualDemandGrowthForecasts

•OPEChasreviseditsglobaldemandgrowthforecastdownwardforthefirsttimethisyear.

•DespitethedownwardrevisionbyOPEC,itsglobaldemandgrowthforecastsisstill0.8mb/dhigherthantheIEA’sprojections.

•IEAhasreviseditsglobaldemandgrowthforecastsdownwardforthethirdconsecutivemonth.

GlobalDemandGrowth

Evolutionof2025Forecasts

y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday

2.0

OECDDemandGrowth

Evolutionof2025Forecasts

y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday

1.8

Non-OECDDemandGrowth

Evolutionof2025Forecasts

y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday

2.0

1.81.8

1.6

1.61.6

1.4

1.41.4

1.2

1.21.2

1.0

1.01.0

0.8

0.80.8

0.6

0.60.6

0.4

0.4

0.2

IEAOPECEIA

0.2

0.0

IEA

OPEC

EIA

0.4

0.2

IEAOPECEIA

0.0

Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25

-0.2

Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25

0.0

Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25

ForecastVintageForecastVintage

ForecastVintage

Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR

16

Non-OECDcountriesaccountforapproximately94%oftheglobal

demandgrowthinOPEC’sforecastsandmorethan86%inEIA’s

forecasts

2025DemandGrowthForecastsbyRegion

y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday

Rangein2025DemandGrowth

Forecasts

2.0Global

0.8

IEA

TotalNon-OECD

0.6

1.5

OPEC

EIA

TotalOECD

OtherNon-OECD

0.4

0.3

OECDAmericas

0.21.0

OECDEurope

0.2

MiddleEast

0.1

0.5

China

0.1

OECDAsia

0.1

0.0

India

0.1

Africa

0.0

Russia

0.0

-0.5

millionbarrelsperday

17

TheIEAandEIAhaveprojectedstrongernon-DoCsupplygrowth

in2025comparedtoOPEC'sforecast

2024-25Non-DoCSupplymillionbarrelsperday

64

64

63

63

62

62

61

61

60

1Q242Q243Q244Q241Q252Q253Q254Q25

IEAOPECEIAIEApreviousOPECpreviousEIAprevious

Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR

18

Evolutionof2025AnnualNon-OPECSupplyGrowthForecasts

•TheIEA’snon-OPECsupplygrowthforecasthassurpassedtheprojectionsmadebytheEIAforthefirsttimethismonth.

•TheIEA'sforecastforUSoilsupplygrowthisnearlyalignedwiththeEIA’sprojections,however,bothremainapproximately0.13

mb/dhigherthantheOPECestimates.

Non-OPECSupplyGrowth

Evolutionof2025Forecasts

y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday

2.0

Non-DoCSupplyGrowth

Evolutionof2025Forecasts

y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday

1.8

USSupplyGrowth

Evolutionof2025Forecasts

y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday

1.6

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.4

1.2

1.0

1.2

1.0

1.00.8

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.2

0.2

0.2

IEAOPECEIAIEAOPECEIA

IEAOPECEIA

0.0

Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25

0.0

Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25

0.0

Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25

ForecastVintageForecastVintageForecastVintage

Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR

19

ThedisparitybetweenIEAandEIAforthetotalNon-DoCsupply

growthforecastswidenedthismonthduetothedownward

revisionoftheUSsupplygrowthforecast

2025SupplyGrowthForecastsbyRegion

y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday

1.8

Rangein2025SupplyGrowth

Forecasts

IEAOPECEIA

TotalNon-DoC

0.5

1.6

Africa

1.