机械行业2024年投资策略分析报告：周期向上,资产出海低空经济人形机器人

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1000080006000400020000150100507,79093全球油气行业上游资本开支(亿美元)WTI原油均价(美元/桶)7,310986,95094955,860956215855,8305,65073795,1104,730

4,830683,8004,490514,340434,330493,28039655702010

2011

2012

2013

2014

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2017

2018

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2020

2021

2022

2023

2024E4

:/18001600140012001000800BP:WTI/2001501005050053035132837611215812016068138661411544926947181463195310212012115722618413416616316816716017516720589600192123812220109123169208154400155166173244263230244235240230196-502211622001901210201620172018201920202021202220232024E5

全球经济情况油气消费需求油气价格油服行业景气度提升油价上涨油服开采公司资本开支增加设备商订单兑现设备商采购专用件设备商业绩兑现国际政治、大国能源战略、美元汇率、国际资本等因素传导至资本开支0.5-1年油气供给情况传导至设备公司2-2.5年6

设备份额专用件9%45%其他资本开支91%7

8

9

10

EPS2025EPE2025E6.622024/7/912.182024E1.342026E2024E9.092026E688377.SH603699.SH002353.SZ1.841.353.47-1.60--10.41-16.661.1414.6111.1212.349.4532.802.9511

12

250020001500100050033003000270024002100180015001200900----013

30025020015010050302520151050-5-10-15-20014

8765432107.14.43.83.73.53.53.1332.82.82.312.22011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023全球集装箱年产量（百万TEU）15

120001000080006000400020000TEUTEU50000450004000035000300002500020000150001000050001.951.9WCI-1.851.81.751.701.65201920202021202220232019202020212022202316

2021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q1营业收入（亿元）450.6454.5355.6365.7370.1324.0266.5339.2345.5340.2324.43yoy86.5%76.3048.7%60.323.2%35.4-17.5%32.1-17.9%33.7-28.7%9.6-25.1%8.3-7.2%18.1-6.6%21.35.0%19.021.7%50.0干货箱销量（万TEU）yoy222.5%47.9%-21.5%-53.8%-55.9%-84.1%-76.7%-43.8%-36.6%77.1%150%17

收盘价2024/7/98.40EPS（元）2025EPE代码000039.SZ公司2024E2026E2024E2025E10.502026E0.450.800.9818.678.5718

$/day60,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000019数据：Clarksons、证券研究

20

60504030201001000009000080000700006000050000400003000020000100000DWT/1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

20222008/1/42011/1/42014/1/42017/1/42020/1/42023/1/421

1500001000005000001501005030/DWT19.2

19.718.3

18.5

18.3

18.5

18.717.3

17.5

17.6

17.720

16.410002011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

20221990/1/51996/1/52002/1/52008/1/52014/1/5LNG2020/1/519962001200620112016202120DWT3002001000LNG151050221996/1/5

2000/1/5

2004/1/5

2008/1/5

2012/1/5

2016/1/5

2020/1/51996200020042008201220162020

160001400012000100008000600040002000080%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%2013201420152016201720182019202020212022

20231-102013201420152016201720182019202020212022

20231-102324

:::::::::::180,000,000160,000,000140,000,000120,000,000100,000,00080,000,00060,000,00040,000,00020,000,0000180,000,000160,000,000140,000,000120,000,000100,000,00080,000,00060,000,00040,000,00020,000,000030%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%-25%25

161412108642026

6045%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%504030201000%202020212022202327

3,0002,5002,0001,5001,00050020181614121086420028

成屋销售约占北美住房市场的90%成屋销售环比大幅改善，同比降幅收窄:::%%800700600500400300200100060%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%100%80%60%40%20%0%29

30%987654321025020015010050030

40%30%20%10%0%3-4年3-4年3-4年3-4年3-4年3-4年3-4年-10%-20%-30%31:::::::108:302520151040%30%20%10%0%6-10%-20%-30%4%%%:::::30%3002001000%::20%10%0%-100-10%-20%32沃尔玛库存同步下行，销售同比上行亚马逊库存同步下行，销售同比上行60%40%20%0%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%-20%-40%-60%-80%-10%家得宝库存同比持平，但高于销售增速劳氏库存、销售跌幅相近40%50%40%30%20%10%0%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-10%-20%33

PE2024/7/926.022024E1.730.631.430.132025E2.090.961.660.232026E2.431.170.000.302024E15.0423.689.082025E12.4515.547.832026E10.7112.75-002444.SZ301260.SZ605259.SH2285.HK14.92---12.9919.86152.7786.3566.2034

2023年我国工业缝纫机产量占比60%2023年我国工业缝纫机产量560万台/-11%2023年缝制机械规模以上企业营收约286亿元yoyyoy12000.60.50.40.30.20.104003503002502001501005037250%40%30%20%10%0%342100047%630325324316100033%700286840275265800

72469720%40%6815605606004002000526-2%-6%-0.1-11%-0.260%-17%-23%-0.3-0.4-0.5-10%-20%-37%02014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

20232016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

202335

yoyyoyyoyPPI::yoyyoy25%20%15%10%5%140120100800%10.80.60.40.20-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%-60%60400%20-0.2-0.4-0.60-5%-10%36

yoyyoy2024

1-4yoy40.035.030.025.020.015.010.05.00.40.30.20.1080%60%40%20%0%25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%23.1%34.331.528.924.624.923.923.623.322.122.522.120.118.75.7%0.5%-20%-40%-60%0.0%-0.1-0.2-5.0%-10.0%0.0-4.3%-6.0%37-8.4%

70605040302010060.5455.0252.9441.5236.0835.2120182019202020212022202338

%%%YOYYOY9500%30%25%20%15%10%5%140001200010000800060004000200000.60.50.40.30.20.1090%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%79%1200075%74%74%72%24%72%71%110001050070005000

500024%5%19%19%7%17%9%17%11%14%-0.1-0.2-0.311%5006507008002%4%3004004000%2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021201520162017201820192020202139

40数据：Wind、证券研究

YoY%YoY

%100,000300%250%200%150%100%50%90,00080,00070,00060,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000-0%-50%-100%41

挖机内销（万台）挖机外销（万台）内销YoY（%，右轴）外销YoY（%，右轴）403530252015105120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%-80%02006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024E

2025E

2026E

2027E

2028E42

yoyyoyyoy-4.4%yoy-25.3%2.6%17.0%34.1%27.9%0.9%-4.8%4.8%yoyyoy53.8%127.0%111.4%66.9%78.4%85.4%33.5%17.6%-6.6%5.3%12.6%0.2%47.3%3.0%-5.1%4.6%2023011044321450255781877216809157661260613105142831455714924166981237612608249801882217824-33.1%-12.4%-31.0%-23.5%-18.5%-24.1%-29.7%-27.5%-32.6%-29.0%-37.0%-1.0%18.5%-41.2%-2.3%0.3%6.0%343711492138999513659260985112566962636769748476255421583715188107828518-58.5%-32.6%-47.7%-40.7%-45.9%-44.7%-44.7%-37.7%-40.5%-40.4%-48.0%24.0%57.7%-49.2%9.3%700699581167992591021796687494743680207788744090736955677197928040930620230120230220230320230420230520230620230720230820230920231020231120231220240120240220240320240427844515752158775132447135543699367532663536326038143397598649331924338958874510375830252598262325832289238223172547223744353503-39.2%-13.2%4.1%26.5%15.8%-17.2%-13.9%0.3%10.3%16.8%34.1%26.3%30.9%-36.4%-26.3%-22.3%86011261634136713741446956107610929771154943126711601551143020230220230320230420230520230620230720230820230920231020231120231220240120240220240320240420240534.0%10.9%8.9%21.0%-0.7%-13.8%-17.2%-24.8%-14.9%-19.8%-15.3%-0.7%-32.0%-16.2%-13.2%-8.9%4.7%13.1%26.2%17.5%35.9%-26.9%-21.8%-16.1%13.3%29.2%43202197.0%38.2%61.3%54.5%55.7%104.3%202260.0%24.9%72.8%73.0%83.1%54.8%2023-4.0%11.5%41.6%35.1%62.4%23.9%130.4%16%24M1-2-19.1%24M1-3-17.9%24M1-4-16.7%200%150%100%50%-5.1%22.2%21.3%39.9%-6.8%57.8%-16.4%34.5%11.1%25.1%21.7%0.1%9.9%7.8%16.5%4.1%67.5%-8.9%65.1%1.1%0.3%8.4%10.3%8.5%0.6%31.7%-10.1%73.8%-0.3%22.1%21.1%0%68.3%28.0%93.2%140.4%73.8%25.1%12.6%12.7%63.5%14.5%56.0%-6.2%7.2%-50%22.1%24.9%12.1%65%yoy70%60%50%40%30%20%10%yoy5045403530252015105600500400300200100062.3%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%37%30%30.2%18%7.17%11%8%5%1%

1%9.6%2023-2%-4%-3%-6%-6%0%-5.6%20200-10%-10%201920212022数据：中国工程机械协会、证券研究

/%/%1906.3%70702.3%65401.3%70403.6%60403.6%2120.2%7300064011001230920%%%%%%%%%%%%%%10.9%8010.2%3510.9%354.9%1051.7%820.6%3053515.0%206.5%456.5%11.4%438.9%373.3%407705002.6%5.8%208.6%307.4%488.0%55516004554601.3%900.3%126.5%9510.4%8812.0%21/601060527013.2%42019.8%3252.6%1629.0%3738.3%3166.0%2.0%1552.9%70006.0%4.6%2.3%7.1%45/20244yoy5.6%2024

1-4121960.8yoy20243yoy2023348867.4yoy2023100.0%2024

1-4100.0%32938.93713.3988.27.4%28588.93173.1937.94.5%17.6%7.7%2.4%10313.44081.7-26.0%-11.8%30.3%26.5%-1.3%2.7%-16.7%-22.7%67.1%18.1%-9.8%-2.6%13.6%43101.714517.529138.728452.687041.649402.1153695.012.4%4.2%8.5%3.3%-23.7%4.4%4.6%2625.62974.18469.15157.014168.810732.510420.229187.517761.557225.53463.72772.87915.84978.115636.233.1%12.4%28.3%6.9%8.4%8.8%40.6%-0.9%10.5%6.5%8.2%8.5%24.9%14.2%44.1%23.9%14.6%46.9%19.1%13.5%4069.43548.15853.54.3%5.4%14581.216600.821242.43.6%40.3%13.9%1889.71196.33001.0-52.9%-57.0%-49.0%40313.142318.357512.05.9%67.9%-3.2%11.6%12.1%16.5%12.0%13.6%17.4%+12.6%3036.53312.17.5%7535.4-31.7%-6.9%1564.5724.1-15.5%-19.9%34068.537639.67.5%9.8%6.2%9.4%-14.7%11426.074.2%10.8%864.465.4%2151.6-3.6%253.8-29.0%6177.92.2%1.8%1.8%976.7800.31335.51336.1423.31103.3828.075.8-15.9%4.4%4363.12692.75026.46342.41760.73054.93489.8259.6-10.3%-2.3%2.6%961.1404.1703.4672.6180.9130.8458.248.6-5.6%-2.2%14268.68274.715301.817923.55957.17510.712659.91107.1-1.0%-3.4%28.4%-8.7%2.5%4.1%2.4%4.4%5.1%1.7%2.2%3.6%0.3%3.6%2.2%4.1%5.2%1.4%2.5%2.9%0.2%13.0%-16.6%-23.8%78.5%-25.1%-22.9%-20.4%-12.6%-23.4%35.9%-27.0%-28.4%7.4%-8.4%51.2%-14.6%-18.2%51.0%5.8%-9.1%46

()YoY50004500400035003000250020001500100050040.56%40%800700600500400300200100023.38%13.69%24.62%13.58%18.60%21.51%20%19.89%2.20%10.…16.13%-2.45%5.55%0%-2.26%-16.35%-0.90%2434-5.53%-12.37%-20%-40%-60%-80%-100%-120%2327

2306-35.68%1820

186020271915184016791630

15901620151814161330

13001219108098886902004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

202347

48

EPSPE2024/7/915.306.562024E0.710.650.592.143.741.471.790.662025E0.920.770.722.544.371.752.050.892026E1.13-2024E21.5510.0912.5819.6914.2612.4810.6416.002025E16.638.522026E13.54-600031.SH000425.SZ000157.SZ601100.SH603338.SH603298.SH600761.SH000528.SZ7.420.872.89-10.3116.5912.2110.499.298.5314.58-42.1453.3518.3519.0410.562.052.321.178.958.219.0311.87-4950

亿航智能中国小鹏汇天中国峰飞航空中国Joby

AviationVOLANT美国2021VE2S电动有人6Lilium德国所属国家布局时间美国2021Joby

S4电动无人42014EH216-S电动2020陆地航母电动2017盛世龙电动2015Lilium

Jet电动代表产品动力模式操作模式无人有人无人有人载客量（位）速度（km/h）24-556<=130200200330235<=30051

我国民用无人机市场规模（亿元）我国军用无人机市场规模（亿元）低空经济市场规模（亿元）yoy我国无人机整体市场规模yoy12000100008000600040002000040%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%1064514001200100080060040020000.4534%0.433%40%34%90859228%30%0.350.334%808627%670324%0.250.25060202324%24%753781117419%29129%684369790.1564778590.10.050599554097%492941981560%202120222024E2025E2026E2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

202152

53

2021.012022.122023.052023.032023.102022-20352025202.2023—20252025102025

eVTOLeVTOL2023.102023.1120352023-20352023.122023.1250%2023.122024.012024.022023.122024.031eVTOL202722024.0320302024-2030

EPSPE2025E17.9314.9221.76-2024/7/912.5511.7912.8425.9410.4411.682024E0.540.620.49-2025E0.700.790.59-2026E0.870.96-2024E23.2419.0226.20-2026E14.4312.28-002967.SZ603308.SH002085.SZ688070.SH001696.SZ600580.SH-------0.560.890.631.030.711.1818.6413.1216.5711.3414.709.9056

57

58

59

15%35%10%15%25%60

15%7%8%48%22%61

,6~1590%1/3,/6000r/min2m/s10000rad/s21μm,10262

0.9%0.9%9.4%RollvisGSA54%28.0%RexrothEWELLIX9.4%9.4%14.0%46%CR528.0%CMC63国家和地区德国主要产品应用领域Rexroth上银科技五洲新春长盛轴承GSA直线导轨、滚珠/轧制滚柱丝杠、电动缸、直线运动模组汽车-线性传动技术中国台湾

滚珠丝杠、直线导轨、轴承、末端效应器汽车-转向系统中国中国瑞士瑞士滚珠丝杠、轴承及配件、精密机械及零件滚珠丝杠、润滑轴承汽车-转向/驻车/电子刹车等汽车、军工、数控机床等航空航天、钢铁冶金、军工航空航天、钢铁冶金、军工直径范围5-245mm、导程范围0.5-50mm

研磨级滚柱丝杠直径范围5-245mm、导程范围0.1-50mm

研磨级滚柱丝杠Rollvis直线导向类（成型/精密导轨、直线轴承）、滚珠/滚柱丝

医疗设备、自动化生产线、非道路机杠、电动缸、直线模组

械和其他通用设备精密滚珠丝杠副、精密滚动直线导轨副、高速精密电主轴

数控机床、军工设备、核电装备、航Ewellix瑞典中国博特精工精密机械主轴单元、X-Y

精密双坐标工作台、精密主轴等高精度滚柱丝杠副、大型滚珠丝杠副、滚动导轨副行星滚柱丝杠、电动缸空航天等数控机床南京工艺新剑传动中国中国汽车、轨道交通、机器人数控机床、自动化装备、机器人、新能源汽车、医疗器械等行业数控机床、自动化装备、机器人等汽车、机器人等贝斯特中国高精度滚珠/滚柱丝杠副、高精度滚动导轨副等恒立液压五洲新春中国中国滚珠丝杆、重载滚珠丝杆、行星滚柱丝杆电动缸等丝杠螺母轴承组件、滚珠丝杠等64EPSPE收盘价（2024/7/9）核心部件公司代码公司名称评级2024E

2025E

2026E

2024E

2025E

2026E002050.SZ601689.SH603728.SH300354.SZ603662.SH688322.SH688279.SH002896.SZ603667.SH301368.SZ603009.SH601100.SH300580.SZ300718.SZ603040.SH000837.SZ688577.SH002520.SZ003025.SZ300809.SZ19.2057.2337.6432.1022.5525.5199.6126.4714.8842.5116.5242.1414.0212.7618.327.010.962.470.511.081.30-0.362.330.630.71-1.153.250.711.421.55-0.042.970.770.98-1.344.000.851.811.810.273.730.93-20.0023.1773.8029.7217.3516.70

14.3317.61

14.3153.01

44.2822.61

17.7314.55

12.46---执行器和电机传感器-----UW-70.86

-637.75

94.48驱控芯片减速器42.7542.0220.96-33.54

26.7134.38

28.4615.18------0.202.140.671.041.550.140.590.06-0.302.540.861.301.840.210.830.13-0.452.891.09-82.6019.6920.9312.2711.8250.0755.9260.83-55.07

36.7116.59

14.5816.30

12.86丝杠类设备类9.829.96-2.210.301.10-8.29-33.38

23.3739.75

29.9932.993.65----28.08---11.7019.09-0.590.720.8732.3626.51

21.946566

50045040035030025020015010050100%80%60%40%20%0%20018016014012010080120%100%80%60%40%20%0%yoy60-20%-40%40-20%-40%0200PCPC67yoyyoy

yoy30002500200015001000500400%350%300%250%200%150%100%50%MateXs

2Watch4ProMagic

V2Magic

Vs214ProiPhone15

Pro&ProMaxAppleWatch

Ultra&Ultra2OPPOFindN2Galaxy

S24

UltraGalaxy

Warch5

Pro0%OPPO0-50%68

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