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2September2024|5:48PMJST
JapanTechnology:SemiconductorCapitalEquipment
Earningswrap/meetingtakeaways:Strongdemandforleading-edgesemiconductorscomesintosharperfocus
Equipmentdemandstrongforadvancedsemiconductorapplications,
ShuheiNakamura
+81(3)4587-9932|
butchipdemandstillweakforconsumerelectronics
shuhei.nakamura@
GoldmanSachsJapanCo.,Ltd.
Inthisreport,welookatthehighlightsoftheApril-June2024earningsseason,
KahoOtake
summarizeourkeytakeawaysfromcompanymeetings,andprovideanupdateonourinvestmentviewsandstockpicksfortheJapansemiconductorproduction
+81(3)4587-7498|kaho.otake@GoldmanSachsJapanCo.,Ltd.
equipment(SPE)sector.
Thekeypointsfromcompanymeetingsontheoverallindustryclimateareasfollows.(1)Equipmentdemandforadvancedsemiconductorapplicationsis
recovering(ordersarepickingupatcompaniesthatsupplycomponentstomajor
SPEmanufacturers).(2)DemandforequipmentinChinaismixed,buttherehas
beennosignificantslowdownrecently(localChineseSPEmanufacturersare
especiallyupbeatontheoutlook).(3)Regardingback-endequipmentforgenerativeAI,demandforCoWoSproductsisparticularlystrong,andthereisnonotable
slowdownindemandforHBMproducts.However,(4)semiconductordemandforconsumerapplicationsandrelatedinvestmentappetiteatglobalOSATsremain
sluggish.(5)Demandforpowersemiconductor-relatedequipmentisalsoshowingsignsofapause.
WespotlightAdvantest,TokyoElectron,andDiscoamonglarge-caps
Amongindividualstocks,weremainBuy-ratedonlargecapsAdvantest,whichis
_
poisedtoseeanincreaseindemandfortestersgivenasubstantialincreasein
testingtimeowingtogreaterdemandforadvancedchipsusedingenerativeAI,
TokyoElectron,whichhasahighshareinequipmentforadvancedsemiconductorsandthepotentialtomaintainanincreaseinitsgrossprofitmargineventhrough
FY3/26whenitsChinabusinessweightingislikelytodecline,andDisco,whichhasmultiplestructuralgrowthdriverssuchasadvancedpackagingandback-end
automation.Amongsmall-andmid-capstocks,wehighlightJEOL,whichweexpecttoseeanincreaseinordersformulti-beamwritingequipment,andUlvac,wherethegrossmarginisimprovingoncompany-specificfactors.Ontheotherhand,we
remainbearishonTokyoSeimitsuasdemandforchipsotherthansomeadvancedsemiconductors(e.g.,forgenerativeAIapplications)remainssluggishandthereis
GoldmanSachsdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthis
report.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto
/research/hedge.html.Analystsemployedbynon-USaffiliatesarenotregistered/qualifiedasresearchanalystswithFINRAintheU.S.
GoldmanSachsJapanTechnology:SemiconductorCapitalEquipment
nosignificantrecoveryininvestmentbyOSATsoutsideChina.Notethatwehavemademinorrevisionsof0%~-6%toourearningsestimates(Exhibit2)and12-monthtarget
prices(Exhibit2)owingtochangesinourforexassumptions(USD/JPY150→145).
SeeourindividualreportsonourinvestmentratingchangesonAdvantestandHOYA.
Exhibit1:Ratingsand12-monthtargetpricesforcompaniesinourcoverage
Up/down
CompanyName
TokyoElectron
Disco
Ulvac
JEOL
SCREENHD
Advantest
Lasertec
KokusaiElectric
HOYA
TokyoSeimitsu
PricesasofAugust30,2024close
Currentprice
(¥)
25,805
42,660
8,147
6,544
10,895
6,641
28,080
3,915
20,595
8,230
Ticker
8035.T
6146.T
6728.T
6951.T
7735.T
6857.T
6920.T
6525.T
7741.T
7729.T
Old
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Sell
New
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Old
43,000
66,000
12,000
9,100
15,500
6,000
34,000
4,500
23,000
8,600
New
43,000
63,000
12,000
8,900
14,500
8,100
34,000
4,500
22,000
8,300
side
+67%
+48%
+47%
+36%
+33%
+22%
+21%
+15%
+7%
+1%
Pricetarget
(¥)
Rating
Source:RefinitivEikon,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
_
2September20242
GoldmanSachsJapanTechnology:SemiconductorCapitalEquipment
Exhibit2:Ournew/oldestimatesandconsensusforecastsforourcoverage
NewOldConUpdatedasof30-Aug-2024
SalesFY1FY2FY3
(JPYmn)
GSENewGSEOld
Newvs.Old
BBG
vs.BBG
GSENewGSEOld
Newvs.Old
BBG
vs.BBG
GSENewGSEOld
Newvs.Old
BBG
vs.BBG
DISCO
411,800415,300
-0.8%
400,000
+3%
467,800476,100
-1.7%
467,000
+0%
502,100511,900
-1.9%
525,000
-4%
KokusaiElectric
229,700229,700
0.0%
225,600
+2%
262,300262,300
0.0%
272,000
-4%
291,700291,700
0.0%
306,150
-5%
Ulvac
279,900279,900
0.0%280,000
-0%
305,600305,600
0.0%307,800
-1%
326,100326,100
0.0%339,000
-4%
Advantest
637,100608,300
+4.7%604,000
+5%
788,700681,900
+15.7%690,950
+14%
830,500736,700
+12.7%766,000
+8%
Lasertec
251,200251,200
0.0%
256,000
-2%
285,200281,500
+1.3%
331,185
-14%
339,500335,500
+1.2%
372,150
-9%
JEOL
193,900195,400
-0.8%
188,219
+3%
204,000207,400
-1.6%
205,973
-1%
210,700214,100
-1.6%
214,100
-2%
TokyoSeimitsu
143,500144,200
-0.5%
148,250
-3%
152,300154,400
-1.4%
164,000
-7%
173,800176,100
-1.3%
177,300
-2%
SCREENHoldings
572,000572,000
0.0%
569,500
+0%
608,700612,800
-0.7%
619,975
-2%
654,900659,400
-0.7%
680,000
-4%
HOYA
867,000872,500
-0.6%
864,000
+0%
932,700946,700
-1.5%
919,900
+1%
1,003,0001,017,700
-1.4%
992,950
+1%
TokyoElectron
2,302,2002,302,200
0.0%
2,300,000
+0%
2,768,5002,768,500
0.0%
2,653,200
+4%
3,132,6003,132,600
0.0%
3,030,000
+3%
OperatingprofitFY1FY2FY3
(JPYmn)
GSENewGSEOld
Newvs.Old
BBG
vs.BBG
GSENewGSEOld
Newvs.Old
BBG
vs.BBG
GSENewGSEOld
Newvs.Old
BBG
vs.BBG
DISCO
183,000186,800
-2.0%
175,300
+4%
215,600223,900
-3.7%
216,538
-0%
235,100244,400
-3.8%
249,000
-6%
KokusaiElectric
50,00050,000
0.0%
48,800
+2%
60,70060,700
0.0%
65,800
-8%
70,70070,700
0.0%
81,700
-13%
Ulvac
35,40035,400
0.0%
35,400
0%
44,90044,900
0.0%
45,950
-2%
52,00052,000
0.0%
53,437
-3%
Advantest
162,600144,800
+12.3%
141,396
+15%
250,700180,300
+39.0%
198,000
+27%
274,800201,500
+36.4%
238,000
+15%
Lasertec
108,500111,100
-2.3%
111,340
-3%
119,500121,200
-1.4%
147,400
-19%
146,100147,600
-1.0%
163,600
-11%
JEOL
34,90035,400
-1.4%
31,735
+10%
38,10039,400
-3.3%
37,950
+0%
38,90040,200
-3.2%
41,600
-6%
TokyoSeimitsu
27,50027,900
-1.4%
29,350
-6%
28,80030,000
-4.0%
34,950
-18%
36,00037,300
-3.5%
38,450
-6%
SCREENHoldings
109,900110,200
-0.3%
109,004
+1%
117,100118,600
-1.3%
121,750
-4%
127,900129,500
-1.2%
140,026
-9%
HOYA
252,700254,700
-0.8%
253,950
-0%
288,500291,800
-1.1%
287,216
+0%
320,300323,100
-0.9%
323,173
-1%
TokyoElectron
639,000639,000
0.0%
627,000
+2%
866,200866,200
0.0%
795,000
+9%
1,027,4001,027,400
0.0%
938,500
+9%
NetprofitFY1FY2FY3
(JPYmn)
GSENewGSEOld
Newvs.Old
BBG
vs.BBG
GSENewGSEOld
Newvs.Old
BBG
vs.BBG
GSENewGSEOld
Newvs.Old
BBG
vs.BBG
DISCO
137,200140,000
-2.0%
129,000
+6%
161,500167,700
-3.7%
159,800
+1%
176,100183,000
-3.8%
183,000
-4%
KokusaiElectric
33,80033,800
0.0%
33,821
-0%
44,10044,100
0.0%
47,800
-8%
51,30051,300
0.0%
58,550
-12%
Ulvac
25,50025,500
0.0%
24,800
+3%
32,10032,100
0.0%
32,650
-2%
37,00037,000
0.0%
39,023
-5%
Advantest
121,700105,100
+15.8%
106,617
+14%
189,600131,800
+43.9%
148,850
+27%
208,200147,800
+40.9%
178,520
+17%
Lasertec
77,10079,000
-2.4%
81,000
-5%
84,90086,100
-1.4%
107,404
-21%
103,800104,900
-1.0%
118,200
-12%
JEOL
25,90026,300
-1.5%
23,807
+9%
28,20029,200
-3.4%
27,850
+1%
28,80029,700
-3.0%
29,700
-3%
TokyoSeimitsu
22,20022,500
-1.3%
23,100
-4%
20,30021,200
-4.2%
24,750
-18%
25,40026,300
-3.4%
28,150
-10%
SCREENHoldings
80,30080,500
-0.2%
77,375
+4%
85,50086,600
-1.3%
86,700
-1%
93,40094,500
-1.2%
98,000
-5%
HOYA
213,400216,600
-1.5%
201,483
+6%
243,700247,100
-1.4%
229,000
+6%
269,200273,000
-1.4%
255,375
+5%
TokyoElectron
497,900497,900
0.0%
478,000
+4%
673,200673,200
0.0%
604,400
+11%
797,700797,700
0.0%
720,000
+11%
EPSFY1FY2FY3
(JPY)
GSENewGSEOld
Newvs.Old
BBG
vs.BBG
GSENewGSEOld
Newvs.Old
BBG
vs.BBG
GSENewGSEOld
Newvs.Old
BBG
vs.BBG
DISCO
1,266.11,291.9
-2.0%
1,191.0
+6%
1,490.41,547.6
-3.7%
1,475.0
+1%
1,625.11,688.8
-3.8%
1,689.0
-4%
KokusaiElectric
146.4146.4
0.0%
146.6
-0%
191.0191.0
0.0%
205.2
-7%
222.2222.2
0.0%
254.5
-13%
Ulvac517.5517.50.0%503.3+3%651.5651.50.0%662.6-2%750.9750.90.0%792.0-5%
Advantest165.8142.7+16.1%144.4+15%260.7180.6+44.3%201.8+29%289.2204.6+41.3%241.7+20%
Lasertec854.9876.0-2.4%889.7-4%941.4954.7-1.4%1,170.7-20%1,150.91,163.1-1.0%1,293.6-11%
JEOL506.8514.7-1.5%466.1+9%551.9571.4-3.4%545.1+1%563.6581.2-3.0%581.2-3%
TokyoSeimitsu548.8556.2-1.3%571.1-4%501.8524.1-4.2%631.2-20%627.9650.2-3.4%694.3-10%
SCREENHoldings826.9828.9-0.2%798.9+4%880.4891.8-1.3%898.4-2%961.8973.1-1.2%1,009.1-5%
HOYA629.1638.5-1.5%582.4+8%740.3750.6-1.4%671.7+10%843.3855.2-1.4%775.8+9%
TokyoElectron1,080.81,080.80.0%1,037.6+4%1,477.41,477.40.0%1,307.0+13%1,770.01,770.00.0%1,562.9+13%
Source:Bloomberg,Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
_
Exhibit3:Forexsensitivityatcompaniesinourcoverage
JEOL DISCO Lasertec AdvantestTokyoSeimitsu HOYASCREENHD
UlvacKokusaiElectricTokyoElectron
1.0%
0.8%
0.6%0.6%
0.2%0.1%
0.1%0.0%
0.0%0.0%
0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%
Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
2September20243
GoldmanSachsJapanTechnology:SemiconductorCapitalEquipment
NotCoveredcompanycommentary
Shimadzu(7701.T)
Shimadzugotofftoaslowstartin1Q3/25,partlyduetotheimpactofproductioncutsthatthecompanyhadnotanticipatedatthestartofthefiscalyear.However,the
companysaiditaimstomakeupfortheslow1Qstartin2Qand2H,astheorder
backlogforitscoremeasuringequipmentbusinessremainshigh,anddemandisstronginJapan,India,andNorthAmerica.DemandfromChinaisalsoshowingsignsof
bottomingout.Inturbomolecularpumps(TMP,includedinindustrialequipment),a
recoveryinSPEapplicationsisbecomingclear,withdemandparticularlystronginJapanandNorthAmerica(perthecompany).ShimadzusaidOPMfortheindustrialequipmentsegmentcouldexceeditsinitialguidance,giventhatTMPscommandrelativelyhigh
marginscomparedtoitsothersemiconductor-relatedproducts.
Nikon(7731.T)
Nikon’s1Q3/25resultsweremixedacrosssegments.Thecompanysaidthatthe
imagingproductsbusiness,whichcontinuestoenjoystrongsales,isoutperformingitsinitialguidance,butthecomponents,healthcare,andprecisionequipmentbusinessesgotofftoaslowstart.Inthecomponentsbusiness,thecompanysaidthatcustomersarestilladjustinginventoriesofopticalcomponentsforEUVmaskinspection
equipment,andthatvisibilityispooronthetimingofanyrecoveryin2H3/25or
thereafter.Nikonsaidtheoutlookisalsouncertainforitsprecisionequipmentbusiness,
asmajorNorthAmericanIDMcustomershaveloweredtheircapexoutlooksfor
FY24-25.NikoncommentedthatattainingitsFY3/26operatingprofittargetof¥70bnunderitsmedium-termplanwilldependonsemiconductormarketconditions.
HamamatsuPhotonics(6965.T)
_
Thecompany’smainstaymedicalequipmentandsemiconductorproductscontinuetobeimpactedbyinventoryadjustmentsatcustomers,andHamamatsuloweredits
full-FY9/24guidanceforthesecondtimeatits3Qearningsrelease.However,itsaidordershavebeenpickingupfromabottompointin3QinCT,bloodtesting,and
semiconductorfieldsotherthanwaferinspection,andthattheBBratiohasbeenabove1sinceMay.Itthereforethinksquarterlyresultswillbottomoutgradually(mentioningitwilllikelybe2H2025beforeafullrecoveryinwaferinspectionequipment,as
customersstillhavehighinventorylevels).Inindividualbusinesses,demandforstealthdicingusedforHBMremainsstrong,andHamamatsusaidordersforX-raysources
usedinLiB(battery)inspectionarealsopoisedtorecover,astheoperatingrateof
China’slargestbatterymakerhasrecoveredfromabottomofaround50%toaround70%.
Horiba(6856.T)
Initsmainstaysemiconductorbusiness,Horibasaidthatdemandformassflow
controllers(MFCs)atChineseSPEmakershasbeenrecoveringcomparedtothree
2September20244
GoldmanSachsJapanTechnology:SemiconductorCapitalEquipment
monthsago,whiledemandforNANDapplicationshasstartedtopickupoutsideChina.ThecompanysaidtheBBratioforthesemiconductorsegmentexceeded1in2Q
(Apr-Jun).Intheautomotivebusiness(anothercoresegment),HoribasaidinvestmentinelectrificationhasslowedsomewhatduetosluggishEVdemand,butthatinquiries
aboutinvestinginupgradesofinternalcombustionengineequipmenthavepickedup,notingthatexhaustgas-relatedsalescouldincreaseoverthenexttwotothreeyears.HoribasaidprofitabilityisstillanissueintheFC/batterybusinessastheunitremainsinthered,butthatithasresumedacceptingneworders(whilecontrollingprofitability)
sincetheendof1H,andthatitsbacklogissteadilygrowing.
Tazmo(6266.T)
Tazmosaiditbookedordersworthover¥3bnforadvancedpackage(CoWoS)debondingequipmentin2Q,thefirstsubstantialordertotalsince3Qofthepreviousfiscalyear.
Thecompanysaiditexpectsinquiriestoremainsteadyandplanstoincreaseits
productioncapacityfromthecurrentlevelof4-5unitspermonthtoaround7unitsby
early2025.TazmonotedthataKoreanequipmentmakerhasobtainedcertificationfromaTaiwanesefoundrycustomerforsomeprocesses(laserirradiation),butthatitsown
equipmentisstillbeingusedforcleaningprocesses,andthattherehasbeennomajorchangeinthecompetitiveenvironment.Ontheotherhand,Tazmosaidcustomersaretakingawait-and-seeapproachforinvestinginequipmentforpowersemiconductors,
andthatitisunlikelytoseearecoveryinordersthisfiscalyear.Intermsofoverall
earnings,itsaidoperatingprofitin1Hwasaround¥6bnhigherthanitexpected,mainlyduetoadelayinR&Dexpenses,andthatearningsarelargelyontrackwithfull-year
guidance.
ShibauraMechatronics(6590.T)
ShibauraMechatronicssaid1Q3/25resultsexceededitsinitialexpectationsforsales,
operatingprofits,andorders.Earningswerebuoyedbysolidoutputofsemiconductor
_
equipmentforback-endprocesses(salesarerecognizedonapercentage-of-completionbasis),whileorderswereboostedbyphosphateetchingequipmentforChinese
customersandadvancedpackagingequipmentforTSMC.Shibaurasaiditexpects
orderstoremainstrong(withsomequarterlyfluctuation)forback-endequipment
(bonders)usedinadvancedpackaging,mainlyCoWoS.Thecompanylooksforback-endequipmentordersofaround¥12bninFY3/25(1Qactual:around¥4bn),comparedwith¥10.5bninFY3/24.Astooverallearnings,Shibaurasaiditneedstoreconsiderits
earningsoutlookforFY3/26,asitsFY3/25earningsareonpacetoalreadyexceeditsmedium-termplantargetsforFY3/26.
MicronicsJapan(6871.T)
Ordersinthecoreprobecardbusinesshitarecordhighof¥16.8bnin2Q12/24,well
abovethecompany’sexpectations.DRAMaccountedforaround80%oftheorders,ofwhichHBMmadeupjustunder50%,maintainingthehighlevelseenin1Q.OrdersforgeneralDRAMwerealsostrong.ProbecardsforDRAMapplicationsaresuppliedmainlytoSamsung,whileJapanElectronicMaterials(6855.T,NC)isthemainsupplierofprobecardsforMicronTechnology’sHBMapplications.MicronicsJapansaidthatinquiriesfor
2September20245
GoldmanSachsJapanTechnology:SemiconductorCapitalEquipment
HBMprobecardsremainstrong,althoughitdidnotdiscloseguidancefororders.ItalsonotedthattherequiredspecsforprobecardsdifferasthegenerationofHBMevolvesfromHBM3to3eto4,andthatadditionaldemandmayemergewhenmassproductionofHBM4begins.
TOWA(6315.T)
Ordersin1Q3/25cameinat¥13.1bn,thelowerendofthe¥13-15bnrangethe
companyhadexpectedatthestartofthequarter.Thiswaslargelyduetocancellationsofaround¥600mnforsingulationequipment,andthecompanysaidordersforitscoremoldingequipmentaretrendingwell,mainlyfromChinaOSATs.ItreceivedordersforseveralHBMmoldingunitsin1Q,andwhileordersin2Qarelikelytobelimitedas
customersarecurrentlysettinguptheequipment,TOWAsaiditstillexpectstoreceiveordersforaround20unitsforthefullyear.InvestmentappetiteatTaiwanOSATs
remainsweak,andwhilethecompanyhadinitiallyexpectedarecoveryinordersfrom2Q,itnowseesarecoveryasmorelikelyin3Qorthereafter.
PILLAR(6490.T)
1Qresultsmarkedaslowstartagainstthefull-yearplan,withsluggishsalesof
fluororesinproductstoSPEmakers.However,thecompanysaidordersforitscoreelectronicequipmentandrotaryjointsforCMPequipment(partoftheindustrial
equipmentbusiness)couldpickupfrom2Q,anditseespotentialforbusiness
conditionstoimprovein2Hasoperatingratesrise.SalestoChineseSPEmakersare
alsoonanuptrend,andwithsaleshavingpreviouslybeenhamperedbyresinshortages,
PILLARsaiditiscurrentlyworkingtoexpandsalesfurther,includingbyprovidingsamplesofrotaryjointstoCMPmakers.
EbaraCorporation(6361.T)
Intheprecisionmachinerysegment,acompanywideearningspillar,CMPequipmentfellslightlyshortofplanin1H12/24onslower-than-expectedrecoveryininvestmentby
_
non-Chinesecustomers,butcomponents(mainlydryvacuumpumps)businesswas
slightlyaheadofplanonthebackofhighercustomercapacityutilization.For2H12/24,managementexpectsordersforCMPequipmentfromChinatoremainflathoh,whileordersfromnon-Chinesecustomersareexpectedtoincreasesignificantly.Italsolooksforcomponentorderstoremainhigh(atleastatthesamelevelasin1H).
Ushio(6925.T)
ManagementsaidthatitscollaborationwithAMATonlithographyequipment,akeyfacetofitsgrowthstrategyunderthecurrentmedium-termplan,isprogressing
smoothly.Thecompaniesaredevelopingequipmentforuseininterposersin
cutting-edgepackageapplications(suchasCoWoS),andaccordingtoUshiothe
equipmentisbeingevaluatedbyTaiwanesefoundriesandawiderangeofother
customers.Ontheotherhand,salesofotherlithographyequipment(steppers,directwriters)havenotshownasignificantrecoveryasthemainapplicationsarein
smartphones/PCsandgeneral-purposeservers,butmanagementexpectssalesto
2September20246
GoldmanSachsJapanTechnology:SemiconductorCapitalEquipment
graduallyrecoverin2H12/24inlinewithitsinitialguidance.WithregardtolightsourcesforEUVmaskinspectionequipment,managementlooksforsalestofallbyaround40%yoyinFY3/25,andsaidthat1Qsaleswereconsistentwithitsexpectations.Itadded
thatitisbeingsomewhatcautiousinitsR&Dspendingforfutureapplications.
HirataCorporation(6258.T)
Ordersforrelativelyhigh-marginsemiconductorwafertransferequipmentremain
strong,particularlyfromcorecustomersDiscoandEbara,andinquiriesarealsopickingupagainfromnon-coreclients.Ordersforautomotiveequipmentalsocontinuetobe
robust,bothforICEandEVapplications,andmanagementsaiditwantstoimprovetheprofitabilityofEVbattery-relatedequipment,anareathatwasoneofthefactorsbehindnarrowermarginsin1Q12/24(marginsonEVbatteryequipmentarestilllowerthanonordersforICEenginesandEVEDUs).WithregardtoOLEDequipment,whichhasbeenoneofHirata’searningsdriversinthepast,managementsaidsignificantgrowthis
becominglesslikely(asproductsfromlocalmanufacturersarebeingadoptedinKorea),andthatitislookingfornewgrowthdriversinareassuchasmedical/scientificandFA.
Exhibit4:Valuationsandconsensusforecastsforstocksmentioned
SPE/FPD
CompanyName
HIRATAPILLAR
ShibauraMechatronics
MicronicsJapanUshio
TOWAEbaraTazmo
Precision
CompanyName
Nikon
Horiba
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