【突发】中国将分两步降房贷利率-彭博

官员提议降息约80个基点：人此举提振家庭消费，缓解银行压力彭博新闻社报道Chinaisconsideringcuttinginterestratesonasmuchas$5.3trillionofmortgagesintwostepstolowerborrowingcostsformillionsoffamilieswhilemitigatingtheprofitsqueezeonitsbankingsystem.据知情⼈⼠透露，⾦融监管机构已提议将全国未偿还抵押贷款的利率总共降低约80个基点，这是⼀揽⼦计划的⼀部分，其中包括加快抵押贷款符合再融资条件的时间表。知情⼈⼠表⽰，第⼀次削减可能会在未来⼏周内进⾏，⽽第⼆次举措将于明年年初⽣效，并要求不透露姓名，讨论私⼈事务。Financialregulatorshaveproposedreducingratesonoutstandingmortgagesnationwidebyatotalofabout80basispoints,partofapackagethatincludesanacceleratedtimelineforwhenmortgagesbecomeeligibleforrefinancing,accordingtopeoplefamiliarwiththematter.Thefirstcutmaycomeinthenextfewweekswhilethesecondmovewouldtakeeffectatthebeginningofnextyear,saidthepeople,askingnottobeidentifieddiscussingaprivatematter.据知情⼈⼠透露，⾦融监管机构已提议将全国范围内的未偿还抵押贷款利率总共降低约80个基点，这是⼀揽⼦计划的⼀部分，其中包括加快抵押贷款获得再融资资格的时间表。因讨论私⼈问题⽽要求匿名的知情⼈⼠表⽰，第⼀次降息可能会在未Theyet-to-be-finalizedplanislikelytoapplytofirstandsecondhomes,pendingapprovalfromthetopleadership,twoofthepeoplesaid.InChina,regulatorssetbenchmarksformortgageratesthatarefollowedcloselybybanks.TheNationalFinancialRegulatoryAdministrationdidn’trespondtoarequestforcomment.两位知情⼈⼠表⽰，尚未最终确定的计划可能适⽤于第⼀套和第⼆套住房，有待最⾼领导层的批准。在中国，监管机构制定了银⾏密切关注的抵押贷款利率基准。国家⾦融监管局没有回观看：彭博原创探讨了中国的房地产行业如何变得如此混乱，以及这对全球经济可能产生的影Chineseregulatorsarewalkingafinelineastheyattempttoshoreupthebatteredpropertymarketandeconomywhilesafeguardingthenation’s$66trillionfinancialsystem.Loweringratestooaggressivelywouldpilepressureonthebanks,whichhavealreadyseentheirmargintumbletoarecordlowof1.54%asofend-June,wellbelowthe1.8%thresholdregardedasnecessarytomaintainreasonableprofitability.中国监管机构试图提振遭受重创的房地产市场和经济，同时保护国家价值66万亿美元的⾦融体系，但他们却在谨慎⾏事。过于激进地降低利率会给银⾏带来压⼒，截⾄6⽉底，银⾏的利润率已跌⾄1.54%的历史新低，远低于维持合理利率所必需的BloombergNewsreportedlastweekauthoritiesaremullingaplantoallowhomeownerstorenegotiatetermswiththeircurrentlendersbeforeJanuary,whenbankstypicallyrepricemortgages.Theywouldalsobeallowedtorefinancewithadifferentbankforthefirsttimesincetheglobalfinancialcrisis,peoplefamiliarwiththemattersaid.份之前与当前的贷⽅重新谈判条款，届时银⾏通常会重新定价抵押贷款。知情⼈⼠称，⾃全球⾦融危机以来，他们还将⾸次被允许向另⼀家银⾏进⾏再融资。AnalystsatChinaInternationalCapitalCorp.andJefferiesFinancialGroupearlierexpectedthathomeownersatsomecitieswouldseeupto100basispointsofdeclineintheirmortgagerates.中国国际⾦融公司和杰富瑞⾦融集团的分析师此前预计，⼀些城市的房主抵押贷款利率将下降最多100个基点。了解更多有关中国房地产危机的信息：中国增长引擎的急速增长提高了刺激措施的紧迫性瑞银下调展望，中国5%的增长目标面临越来越多的质疑 ConcernsabouttheChineseeconomyhaveintensifiedafterweakearningsreportsfrommajorconsumercompaniesandasmajorglobalbanksdowngradedtheirgrowthforecasts,suggestingthecountrymaystruggletomeetitsofficialtargetofaround5%thisyear.Therealestatedownturnhasheavilyimpactedhouseholdwealthandspending.在主要消费公司疲软的盈利报告以及全球主要银⾏下调增长预期之后，⼈们对中国经济的担忧加剧，这表明中国今年可能难以实现5%左右的官⽅⽬标。房地产低迷严重影响了家庭财富和“Inessence,it’satransferofwealthfrombankstohouseholds,sopositiveforconsumption,”LarryHu,headofChinaeconomicsatMacquarieGroupLtd.,wroteinanAug.31note.Ifallexistingmortgagesaretoberefinanced,borrowerscansaveabout300billionyuan($42billion)ininterestpaymentsannually,equivalentto0.6%ofthenation’sretailsalesor0.2%ofitsgrossdomesticproduct,heestimated.麦格理集团中国经济主管拉⾥·胡(LarryHu)在8⽉31⽇的⼀份报告中写道：“本质上，这是财富从银⾏向家庭的转移，对消费⾮常有利。”他估计，如果所有现有抵押贷款都进⾏再融资，借款⼈每年可节省约3000亿元⼈民币（420亿美元）的利息⽀出，相当于中国零售额的0.6%或国内⽣产总值的0.2%。Forbanks,CitigroupInc.estimatedtheworse-than-expectedpotentialcutcouldleadtoanaverage8basispointmargincontractionnextyearandhurttheirearningsby6.4%.Lenderswithhighermortgageexposurelikethebigfourstate-runbankscouldbemorevulnerabletothereduction,analystsledbyJudyZhangwroteinanotelastweek.对于银⾏来说，花旗集团估计，⽐预期更差的潜在降息致明年利润率平均收缩8个基点，并使其盈利下降6.4%。以张朱迪为⾸的分析师上周在⼀份报告中写道，像四⼤国有银⾏这样抵押贷款风险较⾼的贷款机构可能更容易受到此次削减的影Existingmortgagescarriedanaverageinterestrateofabout4.27%asofend-2023,comparedwitharecordlowof3.45%onnewly-issuedhomeloans.截⾄2023年底，现有抵押贷款的平均利率约为4.27%，⽽新发⾏住房贷款的平均利率为3.45%，创下历史新低。Cuttingratesintranchesmayhelpsmoothouttheblowforlenders,whicharestrugglingwithfallingearningsasBeijinghasenlistedthemtohelprevivetheflaggingeconomywithcheaploanstoconsumersandcorporatesincludingcash-strappeddevelopers.Bankshadresortedtomultipledepositratecutsoverthepastyearorsotomitigatetheimpactoflowerloanyields.分批降息可能有助于缓解贷款机构受到的打击，因为北京⽅⾯已邀请贷款机构向消费者和包括资⾦短缺的开发商在内的企业提供廉价贷款，以帮助重振疲软的经济，因此贷款机构正⾯临着收⼊下降的困境。在过去⼀年左右的时间⾥，银⾏多次下调存款利率，以减轻贷款收益率下降的影响。Theproposalisalsoaimedatnarrowingthedisparitybetweenratesfornewpropertybuyersandexistinghomeowners,whichhasdrivenawaveofearlymortgagerepaymentsandstrainedlendersinrecentyears.Homeownershavetakenadvantageofcheapconsumerloanstoprepaymortgages,apracticethatisbannedbyregulators.该提案还旨在缩⼩新购房者和现有房主之间的利率差距，这⼀差距近年来推动了提前抵押贷款还款浪潮和贷款⼈的紧张。房主利⽤廉价消费贷款来提前偿还抵押贷款，这种做法受到监管机构的禁⽌。China’soutstandingamountofhomemortgages,whichcountasprimeassetsatChineselenders,stoodat37.79trillionyuanattheendofJune,thelowestlevelinnearlythreeyears.Policymakershavetakensomeforcefulstepstolowerborrowingcoststhisyearincludingscrappingacentralgovernment-guidedmortgageratefloorforfirstandsecondhomepurchases.截⾄6⽉底，中国的住房抵押贷款余额（被视为中国银⾏的主要资产）为37.79万亿元⼈民币，为近三年来的最低⽔平。今年，政策制定者采取了⼀些强有⼒的措施来降低借贷成本，包括取消中央