财务英文毕业论文

财务英文毕业论文财务英文毕业论文/财务英文毕业论文TABLEOFCONTENTSINTRODUCTION 91.DEFINITIONOFINFLATION 102.HISTORYOFINFLATION 103.MODERNDAYMEANINGOFINFLATION 104.CONSUMERPRICEINDEX 115.INFLATIONRATE 126.CAUSESOFINFLATION 147.EFFECTSOFINFLATION 158.CONTROLLINGINFLATION 15CONCLUSION 16REFERENCES 20INTRODUCTIONThepurposeofthisprojectistoclearlydefineINFLATION,identifyitscausesandeffectsandthewaysofeffectivelycontrollingit.Thisassignmentisdesignedtoprovideclearunderstandingofwhatinflationis.Furthertheessaywilloutlinethecausesandeffectsofinflationintheeconomyasawholeandwillidentifymeasuresonhowthegovernmentcaninfluenceandeffectivecontrolinflationtotheadvantageofthestateeconomy.1.DEFINITIONOFINFLATIONInEconomics,Inflationisariseinthegenerallevelofpricesofgoodsandservicesineconomyoveraperiodoftime.(MichaelBurdaandCharlesWyplosz(1997),Macroeconomics:AEuropeantext,2nded.,p.579(Glossary)2.HISTORYOFINFLATIONTheoriginofInflationdatesbacktothetimewhengoldwasusedasthepurchasingmediumintradinggoods.Itisatermwhichwasreferredtoaconditionofcurrency.Itwasoriginallyreferredtoasthedevaluationofthecurrency.Thebestexampletoshowthisdevaluationiswhenarulerorakingcollectsgoldfromhispeopleandsubsequentlymeltthesedownthenmixitwithothersemi-preciousmetalssuchassilver,copperorleadtoincreasethecoinsincirculationwithouttheneedtoincreasetheamountofgoldtoproducethem.Andwhentherulerorkingadoptsthispractice,thesupplyofcoinsincirculationwouldincreasebutwillultimatelydecreasethevalueofthecoin.Oncethevalueofthecoindeclines,itwouldincreasethenumberofcoinsrequiredtoexchangeforgoodsorservices.ApplyingthebasicconceptoftheLawofSupplyandDemandinEconomics,thiswouldmeanthatasthevalueofacoindecreasesduetoageneroussupplyincirculation,thereisaproportionateincreaseinthenumberofcoinsrequiredinexchangeofgoodsorservicesAndalthoughthiswillincreasethemoneysupply,thevalueofthecoinisdecreased.Whentherelativevalueofthecoindecrease,theconsumerswouldrequiremorecoinstopurchaseandwouldexperienceapriceincreasewiththedeclineofthecoin’svalue.3.MODERNDAYMEANINGOFINFLATIONFormanyyearsinflationwasnotrelatedtopricebutratheraconditionofcurrencyasdescribedabove.Overtheyearsandwithmanyargumentsamongsteconomists,whatwasoncedescribedasamonetarycausenowisbeingdescribedasapriceoutcome.(MichaelF.Bryan,1997,OntheOriginandEvolution)Inthemodernday,weheardifferenttypesofinflation.Itisawordoftenusedsynonymouslywithpriceincrease.Intoday’seconomy,Inflationisdefinedasthesustainedriseoftheaveragepricelevelofacountryoveraperiodoftime.(/wiki/IB_Economics/Macroeconomics)4.CONSUMERPRICEINDEXTherateofinflationismeasuredbytheannualpercentageinthelevelofpricesasmeasuredbytheConsumerPriceIndex(CPI).(RobertHallandJohnTaylor(1986),Macroeconomics:Theory,Performance,andPolicy,page5.TheConsumerPriceIndexmeasurespricesofaselectionofgoodsorservicespurchasedbyatypicalcustomer.TheConsumerPriceIndexaimstomeasurehowconsumers’purchasingpowerisaffectedbyrisingprices.(Blanchardetal,1993,2000,2002)Itmeasurestheprocessofaselectionofgoodsandservicespurchasedbyatypicalconsumer.(Mankiw2002,p.

22-32)Householdexpendituresurveysareperformedwhichseekstomeasurewhatpeoplespendtheirmoneyontogetatypicalbasketofgoods.Thisbasketofgoodsisupdatedeachyeartotakeintoconsiderationchangesinexpenditure.Thebasketofgoodsgivesrelativeimportancetoeachdifferentitemandchangesinthepricesofgoodsorservicesmonthlyaremonitoredandcombinedintoasinglefigurewithusingweightsinthebasket.ThebelowisthetypicalbasketofgoodsandservicesforUKconsumers:(ConsumerPricesIndexandRetailPriceIndex:the2008BasketofGoodsandServices,NationalStatisticsOffice,2008)5.INFLATIONRATETheInflationrateisthepercentagerateofchangeofapriceindexovertime.(/wiki/Inflation_rate)ItiscalculatedusingtheInflationrateformula:

CPICurrent-CPIPrevious=CurrentInflationRate

CPIPrevious

CPIApril–September2008(FirstRelease:ConsumerPricesIndices,September2008p.1,NationalStatisticsOffice)ApplyingtheformulaofcalculatingtheInflationrateusingactualdatafromtheNationalStatisticsOffice,theresultinginflationrateoverthe3monthperiodfromApriltoJune2008is1%whichmeansthatthegenerallevelofpricesfortypicalUKconsumersroseapproximatelyby1%overathree-monthperiod.Andoverasix-monthperiod,ApriltoSeptember2008,Inflationratewasat2.51%whichis151%increasefromtheInflationratecalculatedinJune2008.ApriltoJune2008109.00-107.60=1.00%

107.60

ApriltoSeptember2008110.30-107.60=2.51%

107.60

Ingeneral,highorunpredictableinflationratesareharmfultotheeconomyasawhole.Theymakeitdifficultforcompaniestodevelopbudgetsandlong-termplansandthiscontributeinefficienciesinthemarket.Afterseveralandseriousdebatesthateconomistshadovertheperiodofyears,thereisanunderlyingagreementthatinthelongrunInflationisessentiallyamonetaryphenomenon.Incontrast,intheshorttermandmedium,itwillbeaffectedbythesupplyanddemandintheeconomy,takingintoconsiderationtheelasticityofwages,pricesandinterestrates.(FederalReserveBoard'ssemiannualMonetaryPolicyReporttotheCongressRoundtableIntroductorystatementbyJean-ClaudeTrichetonJuly1,2004)Themeasuredinflationrateatanypointintimewillbemadeupofanarrayofindividualpricechanges.Buttheamountofinflationintheeconomyisaboutmorethanjustthesumofallindividualpricechanges.Somethingmorefundamentaldeterminestheamountofinflationintheeconomy-whetheritis1%,10or100%.(http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/education/targettwopointzero/inflation/whatCausesInflation.html)6.CAUSESOFINFLATIONOneofthemostevidentunderlyingcausesoftheriseofinflationisgoingbacktothefundamentallawofeconomicswhichistheLawofsupplyanddemand.Whendemandincreaseabovewhatcompaniescanproduceatanormalleveltherewillbeanupwardspulloncostsandprices.Sotoproducemore,thecompaniesincreasetheirdemandforresourceswhichmayresultintheriseofproductioncostsandprices.Economistsgenerallyagreethathighratesofinflationandhyperinflationarecausedbyanexcessivegrowthofthemoneysupply.RobertBarroandVittorioGrilli(1994),EuropeanMacroeconomics,Ch.8,p.139,Fig.8.1)Viewsonwhichfactorsdeterminemoderateratesofinflationaremorevaried.Lowormoderateinflationmaybeattributedtofluctuationsinrealdemandforgoodsandservices,orchangesinavailablesuppliessuchasduringscarcities,aswellastogrowthinthemoneysupply.Theconsensusviewisthatasustainedperiodofinflationiscausedwhenmoneysupplyincreasesfasterthanthegrowthinproductivityintheeconomy.(Mankiw2002,pp.

81-107\o""Abel&Bernanke2005,pp.

266-269)However,theultimatecauseofinflationcanbesaidtobethecentralbankswhichpermitsanincreaseinthemonetarysupply.(LudwigvonMises,TheTheoryofMoneyandCredit).Thebehaviorandactionofthecentralbanksdeterminewhetherinflationisallowedtoriseortobekeptlow.Inotherwords,whethertheyallowpricetoriseuncheckedbymonetarypolicy,orwhethercentralbanksseekstoinfluencetheamountofmoneyintheeconomybychangingtheinterestrates.(BankofEngland,2000-2009)7.EFFECTSOFINFLATIONAsInflationiscausedbyseveraldifferentfactors,italsohasiteffects.Inflationcontradictstheassumptionthatmoneyhasafixedrateandthatitisstable,thisdefeatstheconceptofhistoricalvalueasbasisofatraditionalaccounting.(Massone,1981a.p.6)Risinginflationaffectsthesalarydemandsofemployeeandpromptsforhighersalarieswiththeeffectoffuelinginflation.Andwithpricesofcommoditiesexpectedtoriseasaresultofinflation,peopletendtohoardtogetridofexcessmoniesbeforeitgetsdevaluedandcanbuylessergoods.Hoardingcreatesshortageinsupplywhichcausestheincreaseinthepricesofcommodityasdemandforthemincreasewiththeirscarcity.Thetaskofkeepingtherateofinflationlowisusuallygiventomonetaryauthoritieswhoestablish\o"Monetarypolicy"monetarypolicy.Generallytodaythesemonetaryauthoritiesarethe\o"Centralbank"centralbanksthatcontrolthesizeofthemoneysupplythroughthesettingof\o"Interestrate"interestrates,through\o"Openmarketoperations"openmarketoperations,andthroughthesettingofbanking\o"Reserverequirements"reserverequirements.\o""(BankofEngland,MonetaryPolicyFramework,2006)Anincreaseinthegenerallevelofpricesimpliesadecreaseinthepurchasingpowerofthecurrency.Thatis,whenthegenerallevelofpricesrises,eachmonetaryunitbuysfewergoodsandservices.(Bulkley,George(31981),"\o"/pss/2231702"PersonalSavingsandAnticipatedInflation".TheEconomicJournal91(361):pp.124-135,/pss/2231702.Retrievedon18November2008)Theeffectofinflationisnotdistributedevenly,andasaconsequencetherearehiddencoststosomeandbenefitstoothersfromthisdecreaseinpurchasingpower.Forexample,withinflationlendersordepositorswhoarepaidafixedrateofinterestonloansordepositswilllosepurchasingpowerfromtheirinterestearnings,whiletheirborrowersbenefit.Individualsorinstitutionswithcashassetswillexperienceadeclineinthepurchasingpoweroftheirholdings.Increasesinpaymentstoworkersandpensionersoftenlagbehindinflation,especiallyforthosewithfixedpayments.(Taylor,Timothy,2008,PrinciplesofEconomics)Therealpurchasing-poweroffixedpaymentsiserodedbyinflationunlesstheyareinflation-adjustedtokeeptheirrealvaluesconstant.Inmanycountries,employmentcontracts,pensionbenefits,andgovernmententitlements(suchassocialsecurity)aretiedtoacost-of-livingindex,typicallytotheconsumerpriceindex.(Flanagan,Tammy,2006).Acost-of-livingallowance(COLA)adjustssalariesbasedonchangesinacost-of-livingindex.Salariesaretypicallyadjustedannually.(\o"/dailyfed/0906/090806rp.htm"COLAWars".GovernmentExecutive.NationalJournalGroup)Theymayalsobetiedtoacost-of-livingindexthatvariesbygeographiclocationiftheemployeemoves.Annualescalationclausesinemploymentcontractscanspecifyretroactiveorfuturepercentageincreasesinworkerpaywhicharenottiedtoanyindex.Thesenegotiatedincreasesinpayarecolloquiallyreferredtoascost-of-livingadjustmentsorcost-of-livingincreasesbecauseoftheirsimilaritytoincreasestiedtoexternally-determinedindexes.Mosteconomistsandcompensationanalystswouldconsidertheideaofpredeterminedfuture"costoflivingincreases"tobemisleadingfortworeasons:(1)Formostrecentperiodsintheindustrializedworld,averagewageshaveincreasedfasterthanmostcalculatedcost-of-livingindexes,reflectingtheinfluenceofrisingproductivityandworker\o"Bargainingpower"bargainingpowerratherthansimplylivingcosts,and(2)mostcost-of-livingindexesarenotforward-looking,butinsteadcomparecurrentorhistoricaldata.Ingeneralwageandpricecontrolsareregardedasatemporaryandexceptionalmeasure,onlyeffectivewhencoupledwithpoliciesdesignedtoreducetheunderlyingcausesofinflationduringthewageandpricecontrolregime,forexample,winningthewarbeingfought.Theyoftenhaveperverseeffects,duetothedistortedsignalstheysendtothemarket.Artificiallylowpricesoftencauserationingandshortagesanddiscouragefutureinvestment,resultinginyetfurthershortages.Theusualeconomicanalysisisthatanyproductorservicethatisunder-pricedisoverconsumed.Forexample,iftheofficialpriceofbreadistoolow,therewillbetoolittlebreadatofficialprices,andtoolittleinvestmentinbreadmakingbythemarkettosatisfyfutureneeds,therebyexacerbatingtheprobleminthelongterm.8.CONTROLLINGINFLATIONAsInflationaffectstheeconomyasawholeandthattheultimatecauseofinflationarethecentralbanksandthemeasurestheyapply,theyarealsotheagencywhocanultimatelycontrolinflation.Thetaskofkeepingtherateofinflationlowisusuallygivento\o"Monetaryauthority"monetaryauthoritieswhoestablish\o"Monetarypolicy"monetarypolicy.Generallytodaythesemonetaryauthoritiesarethe\o"Centralbank"centralbanksthatcontrolthesizeofthemoneysupplythroughthesettingof\o"Interestrate"interestrates,through\o"Openmarketoperations"openmarketoperations,andthroughthesettingofbanking\o"Reserverequirements"reserverequirements.(Taylor,Timothy,PrinciplesofEconomics,2008)Monetarypolicyistheprocessbywhichthe\o"Government"government,\o"Centralbank"centralbank,ormonetaryauthorityofacountrycontrols(i)the\o"Supplyofmoney"supplyofmoney,(ii)availabilityofmoney,and(iii)costofmoneyorrateof\o"Interest"interest,inordertoattainasetofobjectivesorientedtowardsthegrowthandstabilityofthe\o"Economy"economy(\o"/policy.htm"MonetaryPolicy,FederalReserveBoard,January3,2006)\o"Monetarytheory"Monetarytheoryprovidesinsightintohowtocraftoptimalmonetarypolicy.Monetarypolicyisreferredtoaseitherbeingan\o"Expansionarymonetarypolicy"expansionarypolicy,ora\o"Contractionarymonetarypolicy"contractionarypolicy,whereanexpansionarypolicyincreasesthetotalsupplyofmoneyintheeconomy,andaconcretionarypolicydecreasesthetotalmoneysupply.Expansionarypolicyistraditionallyusedtocombat\o"Unemployment"unemploymentina\o"Recession"recessionbylowering\o"Interestrates"interestrates,whileconcretionarypolicyinvolvesraising\o"Interestrates"interestratesinordertocombat\o"Inflation"inflation.Monetarypolicyshouldbecontrastedwith\o"Fiscalpolicy"fiscalpolicy,whichreferstogovernmentborrowing,spendingandtaxation.(\o"BenjaminM.Friedman"B.M.Friedman"MonetaryPolicy,"\o"InternationalEncyclopediaoftheSocial&BehavioralSciences"InternationalEncyclopediaoftheSocial&BehavioralSciences,2001,pp.9976-9984)TheBankofEngland,beingthecentralbankoftheUnitedKingdommustformulateandimplementamonetarypolicyintheareasofmoney,bankingandcreditwiththemainaimofmaintainingpricesconducivetobalancedandstableeconomicgrowth.Inaddition,itmustpromoteandpreservemonetarystability.Thecentralbankinfluencesinterestratesbyexpandingorcontractingthemonetarybase,whichconsistsof\o"Currency"currencyincirculationandbanks'reservesondepositatthecentralbank.Theprimarywaythatthecentralbankcanaffectthemonetarybaseisby\o"Openmarketoperations"openmarketoperationsorsalesandpurchasesofsecondhandgovernmentdebt,orbychangingthe\o"Reserverequirement"reserverequirements.Ifthecentralbankwishestolowerinterestrates,itpurchasesgovernmentdebt,therebyincreasingtheamountofcashincirculationorcrediting\o"Banks'reserveaccounts"banks'reserveaccounts.Alternatively,itcanlowertheinterestrateondiscountsoroverdrafts(loanstobankssecuredbysuitablecollateral,specifiedbythecentralbank).Iftheinterestrateonsuchtransactionsissufficientlylow,commercialbankscanborrowfromthecentralbanktomeetreserverequirementsandusetheadditionalliquiditytoexpandtheirbalancesheets,increasingthecreditavailabletotheeconomy.Loweringreserverequirementshasasimilareffect,freeingupfundsforbankstoincreaseloansorbuyotherprofitableassets.(/wiki/Monetary_policy)Acentralbankcanonlyoperateatrulyindependentmonetarypolicywhenthe\o"Exchangerate"exchangerateisfloating.(\o"/library/ENC/ExchangeRates.html"ExchangeRates,TheLibraryofEconomicsandLibertyMarch31,2006)Iftheexchangerateispeggedormanagedinanyway,thecentralbankwillhavetopurchaseorsell\o"Foreignexchange"foreignexchange.Thesetransactionsinforeignexchangewillhaveaneffectonthemonetarybaseanalogoustoopenmarketpurchasesandsalesofgovernmentdebt;ifthecentralbankbuysforeignexchange,themonetarybaseexpands,andviceversa.Buteveninthecaseofapurefloatingexchangerate,centralbanksandmonetaryauthoritiescanatbest"leanagainstthewind"inaworldwherecapitalismobile.Accordingly,themanagementoftheexchangeratewillinfluencedomesticmonetaryconditions.Inordertomaintainitsmonetarypolicytarget,thecentralbankwillhavetosterilizeoroffsetitsforeignexchangeoperations.Forexample,ifacentralbankbuysforeignexchange(tocounteractappreciationoftheexchangerate),basemoneywillincrease.Therefore,tosterilizethatincrease,thecentralbankmustalsosellgovernmentdebttocontractthemonetarybasebyanequalamount.Itfollowsthatturbulentactivityinforeignexchangemarketscancauseacentralbanktolosecontrolofdomesticmonetarypolicywhenitisalsomanagingtheexchangerate.Inthe1980s,manyeconomistsbegantobelievethatmakinganation'scentralbankindependentoftherestof\o"Executive(government)"executivegovernmentisthebestwaytoensureanoptimalmonetarypolicy,andthosecentralbankswhichdidnothaveindependencebegantogainit.Thisistoavoidovertmanipulationofthetoolsofmonetarypoliciestoeffectpoliticalgoals,suchasre-electingthecurrentgovernment.Independencetypicallymeansthatthemembersofthecommitteewhichconductsmonetarypolicyhavelong,fixedterms.Obviously,thisisasomewhatlimitedindependence.Inthe1990s,centralbanksbeganadoptingformal,publicinflationtargetswiththegoalofmakingtheoutcomes,ifnottheprocess,ofmonetarypolicymoretransparent.Inotherwords,acentralbankmayhaveaninflationtargetof2%foragivenyear,andifinflationturnsouttobe5%,thenthecentralbankwilltypicallyhavetosubmitanexplanation.TheBankofEnglandexemplifiesboththesetrends.ItbecameindependentofgovernmentthroughtheBankofEnglandAct1998andadoptedaninflationtargetof2.5%RPI(now2%ofCPI).Giventhecloseassociationbetweeninflationandoutputgrowth,theMonetaryPolicyCommitteeoftheBankofEnglandshouldformulateanypolicywhichincreasesoutputwhichwouldlikelyhaveafavorableimpactoninflation;inaddition,loweringofinterestrateswhichleadstoincreaseingrowthislikelytoleadadeclineintheratesofinflation.CONCLUSIONThedefinitionofinflationhasevolvedovertheyears,frombeingreferredtoasaconditionofcurrencyandmoney;itisnowusedtodescribethebehaviorofpricesinone’seconomy.Aseconomistsdebateoveritsmeaningandthemethodsbywhichtoquantifyandmeasureit,itremainstruethatInflationismostsignificantlyrelatedtodemandandsupply.Thatasdemandforacommodityorservicesinscarcityincreases,therewillbeaproportionateincreaseinthepricesinthepurchaseofthegoodsorservices.Therefore,toprotecttheeconomyfromsuddenshiftofpricesduetoseveralfactorstheremustbeatoolineffectivelycontrollinginflation.ThecentralbanksliketheBankofEnglandastheultimatecauseofinflationmustdevelopasoundmonetarypolicythatwouldbothcontrolaparticularpriceandinterestratestoeffectivelycontrolinflation.Todaytheprimarytoolforcontrollinginflationismonetarypolicy.Mostcentralbanksaretaskedwithkeepinginflationatalowlevel;normallytoatargetratearound2%to3%perannum,andwithinatargetedlowinflationrange,somewherefromabout2%to6%perannum.Whenweviewinflationinthisperceptive,itwouldbethezero-inflationobjectiveforthecentralbankwhichwillbecomeamoresensiblegoal.REFERENCES\o""Abel&Bernanke2005,pp.

266-269Barro(1993),op.citBankofEngland,2000-2009BankofEngland,MonetaryPolicyFramework,2006Blanchard(2000),op.citBulkley,George(31981).\o"/pss/2231702"PersonalSavingsandAnticipatedInflation.TheEconomicJournal91(361):pp.124-135FederalReserveBoard,\o"/policy.htm"MonetaryPolicy,January3,2006http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/education/targettwopointzero/inflation/whatCausesInflation.htmlJean-ClaudeTrichet,‘FederalReserveBoard'ssemiannualMonetaryPolicyReporttotheCongressRoundtableIntroductorystatement,’July1,2004LudwigvonMises,TheTheoryofMoneyandCredit,ISBN0-913966-70-3Seealso:JesusHuertadeSoto,"Money,BankCredit,andEconomicCycles",ISBN0-945466-39-4MichaelBurdaandCharlesWyplosz(1997),Macroeconomics:AEuropeantext,2nded.,p.579NationalJournalGroup,COLAWars,GovernmentExecutive.Retrievedon21November2008NationalStatisticsOffice,‘ConsumerPricesIndexandRetailPriceIndex:the2008BasketofGoodsandServices,’2008NationalStatisticsOffice,‘FirstRelease:ConsumerPricesIndices,‘September2008p.1\o"/pss/2231702"PersonalSavingsandAnticipatedInflation.TheEconomicJournal91(361):pp.124-135RobertHallandJohnTaylor(1986),Macroeconomics:Theory,Performance,andPolicy,page5.ISBN039395398XRobertBarroandVittorioGrilli(1994),EuropeanMacroeconomics,Ch.8,p.139,Fig.8.1.Macmillan,ISBN0333577647Taylor,Timothy,2008,PrinciplesofEconomics,FreeloadPress,ISBN193078905TheLibraryofEconomicsandLiberty,\o"/library/ENC/ExchangeRates.html"ExchangeRates,March31,2006消费习惯对于消费行为的影响分析摘要:最近10年中国经济快速发展，而且1996年至1999年，为了刺激消费，央行连连降息，但是通过对居民消费数据的实证检验，证明消费存在过度平滑特性，由此可见，消费对于收入增长、利率下降的刺激，反应并不敏感。如何解释？本文从习惯形成理论出发，在理论与实证两方面探讨了消费习惯对消费行为的影响。在理论方面，从习惯形成出发对持久收入消费函数进行修正，通过对修正后的函数形式平滑特性的分析，认为消费中的习惯形成，减少消费变化的波动性，使得消费函数更加平滑。在实证检验方面，通过对最近10年不同收入等级的城镇居民食品消费的面板数据的实证分析，印证了习惯形成消费函数的理论模型。以此为基础，可以对中国居民消费数据的平滑特性做出解释：消费习惯对消费行为的影响，使得消费者不会对收入增长、利率下调等外部因素的刺激做出即时的、充分的反应，而是倾向于在较长的时间内，以较小的幅度逐渐地对消费支出进行调整。关键词：平滑特性；习惯形成；持久收入；面板数据目录序言···································································································23一、习惯形成里问见解以与相关文献综述·········································24二、居民消费数据平滑性的证实分析················································25三、·消费习惯对居民消费行为的影响分析·······································26四、结论·····························································································33参考文献·······················································································34附录······························································································35序言最近10年中国经济的增长非常迅速，人均GNP的平均增长率为8.47%。但是居民消费的增长却相对平稳，平均增长率为7.26%。而且为了刺激消费，拉动内需，从1996年5月以来，中国人民银行在3年之内连续7次降息，并在1999年11月开征利息税。虽然从理论角度而言，无论是收入增长还是利率降低都应对消费有明显的提升作用，但是实际上即使在收入与利率因素共同作用的情况下，居民消费水平也没有显著的增加。关于这一结论，可以很直观地从图1中看到，相对于人均GNP而言，居民人均消费序列较为平滑。为什么消费没有对收入以与利率的变化做出充分反应，而是表现得如此不敏感？关于这一问题的争论，一度是宏观经济中的热点，众说纷纭。但是讨论大多从外部因素着眼，强调收入分配、流动性约束以与金融市场的不完善对消费决策的作用。本文试图从新的角度——消费者的自身特征——消费习惯的角度出发，从理论推导与实证检验两方面探讨消费习惯对消费行为的影响。本文大体可以五部分。第一部分是引言。考虑到国内在消费习惯问题方面的相关研究比较少，所以在第二部分中首先对消费习惯形成理论进行简单介绍，其次总结了近来国外在这方面研究的相关成果。在第三部分对中国居民消费的平滑特征进行实证检验。第四部分首先是进行理论分析，引入习惯因素，对持久收入的消费函数进行修正，并在此基础上将修正之后的结果与经典的理论形式进行比较，分析消费函数的平滑特性。接着在城镇居民食品消费的面板数据中对添加习惯因素的消费函数形式进行实一.习惯形成理论简介以与相关文献综述1.习惯形成理论简介1989年Campbell与Deaton在一篇著名的研究论文中对美国的季度消费数据进行研究之后指出，根据持久收入理论，消费者会根据他所期望的今后一生中的收入，而不仅仅是当前的收入决定消费水平，因此持久收入相对于当期收入而言，具有平滑消费的作用。但是即使如此，相对于持久收入理论的预期而言，实际的消费数据对于收入冲击的反应表现得更加平滑，他们将其称之为过度平滑（excesssmoothness）特性。习惯形成理论的发展是基于对消费数据中的过度平滑特性的探讨。消费习惯形成理论与经典消费理论的区别在于偏好的时间不可分性（time—nonseparablity）。在经典消费理论中，偏好是时间可分的（time-separable）,也就是当期的效用水平仅由当期的消费水平决定；而习惯形成理论则认为偏好是时间可分的（time-nonseparable）,也就是当期的效用水平不仅依赖当前的消费支出状况，而且与此前的支出水平（滞后消费）相关。之所以对效用假设进行如此变动是因为：心理学对人类行为的研究认为，持久的舒适会产生厌倦，但是刺激却可以消除厌倦。与此对应，消费者会对消费水平的长久不变感到厌烦，；但是消费的增长却可以带来与愉悦，因而增加满足感（参见Scitovsky等人，2004）。所以对于消费行为而言，存在一种追求消费增长的偏好，将这样的行为倾向可以看作是个体的决策习惯，这就是习惯形成理论的出发点。如何将这种变化进行模型化处理？习惯形成理论引入有效消费（effectiveconsumption）的概念。与经典消费理论的区别在于：经典消费理论中是当期的消费水平决定当期的效用水平；而习惯形成理论中当期的效用水平取决于有效消费，就是利用滞后消费对当期消费进行调整。对于有效消费的定义有两种常见的形式：和（参见Wendner，2003）。在习惯形成理论的研究中，对于这两者通常并不进行严格的区分，而是根据研究的需要，选取一种有效消费的定义形式，与特定形式的效用函数结合，对问题进行分析。2、习惯形成理论的文献综述（1）国外文献综述习惯形成的纯理论研究大致集中在以下两方面：一是探讨习惯强度与消费增长、储蓄之间的关系（参见Smith,2002；Wendner,2003；Alessie与Lusardi，1997）；二是在习惯形成模型中讨论货币政策、经济增长等宏观经济问题（参见Fuhrer，2000；Carroll等人，2000）。习惯形成的实证研究一直存在较大争议。Heaton（1993）对美国月度的总量消费数据（aggregateconsumptiondata）的检验认为习惯形成的特征不明显，Dynan（2000）应用美国的食品消费的面板数据（paneldata）进行的实证分析发现消费中习惯的影响并不显著。与此相反，Braun等人（1993）的检验确认了日本的总量消费数据中习惯形成的存在，Fuhrer（2000）对美国的总量数据使用VAR模型拟合，结果现实数据与理论模型得到较好地统一。究竟习惯形成模型是否显著，消费中习惯的强度如何还需进一步深入探讨。（2）国内文献综述国内在消费的习惯形成方面的研究相对滞后，明确地提出“习惯形成”这一概念的相关研究成果极为少见。龙志和等人（2002）以某省会城市1999-2001的食品消费的面板数据对消费习惯形成模型进行估计，认为存在显著的习惯形成的特征。二、居民消费数据平滑特性的实证分析Campbell与Deaton(1989)对美国的消费数据进行研究之后，指出持久收入理论不足以解释实际消费数据中的平滑特性。从直观感觉，中国居民消费表现出平滑特性，对其进行实证分析，是否也会呈现过度平滑特征，得到和Campbell与Deaton的研究相同的结论？本文利用1952-2003年的人均GNP与居民人均消费水平之间的关系进行过度平滑性检验。由于人均收入在数据搜集上的困难，本文使用人均GNP代替人均收入水平进行检验。之所以这样选择是因为，根据1981-2003年城镇人均可支配收入与农村居民人均纯收入的相应数据与人均GNP的相关系数的计算结果认为，人均GNP与人均收入是高度相关的。人均GNP与城镇居民人均可支配收入的相关系数是0.9980，与农村居民人均纯收入的相关系数是0.9866。因此使用人均GNP代替人均收入进行相关检验。对人均GNP进行单位根检验（ADF），二阶差分序列平稳，人均GNP的自回归移动平均（ARMA）的估计结果如下（括号中的值是t统计量）：（1）（-2.81）D.W.=1.99=26.93根据Campbell与Deaton对于消费平滑性的检验，如果居民消费行为与持久收入理论相吻合，则消费变化应该满足下式（具体推导过程详见附录）：（2）对于利率，且，所以公式（2）右边乘子的最小值是1.67，由公式（1）可以得到消费变化的标准差于收入冲击标准差之间的关系为：，将收入冲击的标准差（）代入，可以得到消费变化的最小标准差为45.07（=1.67*26.93），但是根据居民人均消费水平估计的消费变化的标准差为20.09，远远小于根据持久收入理论预期最小值。因而可以得出这样的结论：中国的居民消费具有过度平滑的特性，因而持久收入理论不足以充分解释消费的平滑特性。三、消费习惯对居民消费行为的影响分析1、习惯形成的消费函数模型既然持久收入理论不足以对现实消费数据的平滑特性进行很好的解释，那么可以考虑从习惯形成的角度对消费的平滑特性进行分析。本文沿用Alessie与Lusardi（1997）的分析思路，在二次型效用函数中，求解受到习惯因素影响的消费函数的具体形式。时期有代表性的消费者跨期动态最优化问题可以表述为：（3）效用函数的形式为二次型，且，。有效消费的形式为（）。是t期的有效消费，取决于当期消费与滞后一期的消费，表示习惯的强度，也就是滞后期消费对当期消费的影响程度。当=0时，本期的有效消费与滞后期消费完全不相关，也就是经典的消费函数形式。随着的增加，滞后消费对当期消费的影响程度增加，增加消费支出的倾向更加明显，因此习惯因素在消费函数中的作用越来越显著。假设代表型消费者的生命周期是无限期的，面临的约束条件为：（4）（5）其中为t期的财富，并且与是给定的。为贴现率，r是利率并假定不随时间改