WTW-研究网络2024年度回顾 WTW Research Network Annual Review 2024 Science for a smarter way to risk

WTWResearchNetworkAnnualReview2024

Scienceforasmarterwaytorisk

wtw

TABLEOFCONTENTS

Ouraimisnotmerelyto

turnscienceintouseable

1/Introduction03

Aboutus04

Howitworks05

Interconnectedresearch06

WTWResearchNetworkpartners

overtheyears07

Ourhistory08

3/Emergingrisks20

4/Technologyoverview23

5/Peopleandpoliticalrisk26

6/Organizationalresilience29

7/Weatherandclimate

32

8/Floodandwatermanagement35

9/Earthrisks38

10/Riskmodeling41

Testimonials44

Publications47

dataandinformationthat

feedsintoriskmodels,but

alsotouseourimprovedyetimperfectknowledgewiselytosupportriskdecisions.

2/Specializedindustryapproachtorisk09

Aerospace04

Financialinstitutionsandprofessionalservices06

Marine08

Naturalresources,chemicalsand

environmentalservices10

Realestate,hospitalityandleisure12

Retailanddistribution13

Technologyandtelecommunications14

Transportationandlogistics15

Specialized

industry

approach

torisk

Flood

andwater

management

Peopleand

politicalrisk

Organizational

resilience

Weather

andclimate

Risk

modeling

Emerging

risks

Technology

Earth

risks

Testimonials

Introduction

Publications

2

Introduction

ThispublicationprovidesanoverviewofhowWTWisapplyingleading-edgeresearchtosupportasmarterwaytoriskacrossindustries.

Whileweembracethecomplexityofscience,theWTWResearchNetwork(WRN)strivestoidentifyandcommunicatekeyriskinsightsinasimpleandrelevantway,tosupportriskmanagementand

strategydecisions.Wehopethattheoverviewofourresearchportfolioandtheindustry-specificpracticalexamplesofappliedresearchprovideaclearviewoftherisktopicswearefocusing

onandthatsomethinggrabsyourattention.

Thebreadthofourresearchtopicsgivesanideaofourconcernaboutthecurrentstateoftheworld:

1.alongsidearangeofgeohazards,allaspectsof

climatechange,notjustacutephysicalrisksbutalsorelentlesschronicrisks,andnotjustphysicalrisksbutalsoclimatetransitionrisksandclimatechange’simpactonwaterandfoodsecurity;

2.thegrayzonebetweenwarandpeace(whichchallengescorporategeopoliticalneutrality);

3.trustintechnology;

4.vulnerabilitiesofsupplychains;

5.growingregulatoryemphasisonemergingrisks;and

6.ourbeliefthatorganizationalresilienceneedstocomplementthetraditionalriskview.

Despiteourprogresssince2006,wearealltooawareoftheremaining“knowledge–action”gap,which

ispushingleadingscientiststocivildisobedience,togettheirvoicesheard.ThewordsofRussian-

Americanbiochemistandscience-fictionwriter

IsaacAsimovringparticularlytruethesedays:“The

saddestaspectofliferightnowisthatsciencegathersknowledgefasterthansocietygatherswisdom.”

Thisisareminderthattheaimofourresearch

portfolioisnotmerelytoturnscienceintouseable

dataandinformationthatfeedsintoriskmodels,but

alsotouseourimprovedyetimperfectknowledgewisely.Wiseusageofscientificknowledgeis

criticalforpublicunderstandingandsoundpolicy/strategyfortoday’skeychallenges—fromhumanhealthtoclimateactiontofoodsecurity.More

thanever,theresearcherswhomakeuptheWRNareeagertounderstandhowtheirworkinteracts

withtherealeconomyandhowtheycanlendtheirexpertisetoamoreresilientfutureforall.Youcanreadsomeoftheir

Testimonials

inthisreview.

Weextendourrenewedthankstoallourresearchpartnersforkeepingthefaithinthepowerof

applyingscience,andtoourenthusiasticWRN

teamandcuriouscolleagues,withoutwhomwe

couldnotbridgetheknowledge–actiongap.Itisa

privilegetoworkwithsomanytalentedpeopleandharnesstheirinnovationtosupportlives,livelihoodsandassetsinthevolatiledecadewearein.

HélèneGaly

WTWResearchNetworkDirector+44(0)2031248520

helene.galy@

Introduction

Specialized

industry

Technology

Peopleand

politicalrisk

Weather

andclimate

Flood

andwater

management

Earth

risks

Risk

modeling

Testimonials

Publications

Emerging

risks

Organizational

resilience

3

approach

torisk

Aboutus

TheWTWResearchNetworkisawell-

established,not-for-profit,award-winningcollaborationbetweenscienceandthe

insurance,financeandriskmanagementsector,goingbackto2006.Long-term

partnershipswithmorethan60researchorganizationsacrosstheworldhelpus

confrontthefullspectrumofrisksfacingoursocieties.

Ourmissionistoencourageandsupportinnovativeresearchtogaintheclarityofvisionrequiredto

turnrisksintoopportunities.Weaimtoimproveour

understandingofawiderangeofrisksandusethis

operationalizedresearchtocraftbetterrisksolutions,helpclientsandsocietybecomemoreresilientand

takeadvantageofsustainablegrowthopportunities.

Whilsttheriskandinsuranceindustriescontinue

toevolveandimproveatanastonishingrate,no

individualinstitutionhastheresourcesorbreadthof

knowledgetosingle-handedlyanswerallthequestionsaroundthequantificationandmanagementofrisk.

Ourlong-terminvestmentinresearchandongoing

horizonscanningcanbringthelatestsciencetoourclients,oftenhighlightingemergingrisksbeforetheymaketheheadlines.

Partnershipswithacademiadonotnecessarilymeanlongdeliverytimescales,andinfactthemutual

understandingbuiltoverthoselong-termrelationshipsallowsustobeveryresponsivetoclientdemands.

TheWTWResearchNetworkis

organizedaroundsevenresearchhubs,whichdriveanumberof

researchprogramsandresearchprojects,producingacademic

andbusiness-focusedresearchoutputsalongawidespectrum:insights,data,models,peer-

reviewedjournalarticles,financialinstrumentsandseminars.

Thesesevenspecialismsarelinkedbyourfocusonthe

interconnectednessofrisks

intherealworld,providinganintegratedviewofrisk.

Globalpartners,localexpertise

Wedriveresearchwithpartners

inscience,academia,thinktanksandthe

privatesector,combiningspecialistexpertisewithknowledgeacrossourglobalnetwork.

Innovative,long-termpartnerships

Weformlong-term,innovative

partnershipswiththeresearchcommunityandsupportearly-careerscientists.

Understandingofrisk

Ourpartnershipsidentifyrisksand

improvetheirunderstandingandquantificationforthebenefitofourclientsandsociety.

Transmissionmechanism

Ourdedicatedteambringsbest

practiceresearchandevidenceintoourclientproposition:riskmodels,advice,

thoughtleadership,focusedroundtablesandknowledge-sharingevents.

Specialized

industry

approach

torisk

Flood

andwater

management

Peopleand

politicalrisk

Organizational

resilience

Weather

andclimate

Risk

modeling

Emerging

risks

Technology

Earth

risks

Testimonials

Introduction

Publications

4

Howitworks

Flexiblesupportmechanisms

Fundingofpostdocandsenioracademicforlong-termproject

Sponsorshipof

industry-wide

initiatives

Accesstoour

conferencing

facilities

FundingofDoctoralTrainingPartnerships

Letterofsupportforresearchgrant

Researchchallengefundgrants

Fundingof

individualPh.D.s

Membershipofthinktanks

Internships

HowweselectresearchtopicsHowwesupportresearch

Ongoingevaluationofresearchtopics

HorizonscanningbyWRNteam

Ongoing

dialogue

withourWRN

researchpartners

Researchtopics

Questionsfrom

WTWcolleaguesandclients

Collaborationstodevelopsmartersolutions

Clients

•...thatprovideasmarterwayto

riskandresilience

WRNteam

•Appliedtoreal-worldclientchallenges

Researchpartners

•Leading-edgeresearch

WTW

•Todeveloprisksolutions...

Specialized

industry

approach

torisk

Flood

andwater

management

Peopleand

politicalrisk

Organizational

resilience

Weather

andclimate

Risk

modeling

Emerging

risks

Technology

Earth

risks

Testimonials

Introduction

Publications

5

Interconnectedresearch

TheWTWResearchNetworkisorganizedaround

interrelatedresearchhubs,whichdrivearange

ofresearchprograms,producingacademic-and

business-focusedresearchoutputsalongawide

spectrum:insights,data,models,peer-reviewed

journalarticles,financialinstrumentsandseminars.Thesespecialismsarecloselylinked,reflecting

Technology

theinterconnectednessofrisksintherealworldandprovidinganintegratedviewofrisk.

Peopleandgeopolitical

Organizationalresilience

Modelresearchandinnovation

Weatherandclimate

Earth

Floodandwater

Asmarterwaytorisk

Emergingrisks

Specialized

industry

approach

torisk

Flood

andwater

management

Peopleand

politicalrisk

Organizational

resilience

Weather

andclimate

Risk

modeling

Emerging

risks

Technology

Earth

risks

Testimonials

Introduction

Publications

6

WTWResearchNetworkpartnersovertheyears

Specialized

industry

approach

torisk

Flood

andwater

management

Peopleand

politicalrisk

Organizational

resilience

Weather

andclimate

Risk

modeling

Emerging

risks

Technology

Earth

risks

Testimonials

Introduction

Publications

7

Launchofageopoliticalriskresearchprogrambringingtogether worldexperts andbuildingresilienceagainstescalatingthreats

WTWResearch Network collaborates withUniversity ofCambridge’s CentreforRiskStudiestolaunch first-everglobalairport

WTWResearchNetworkClimate Research Challengelaunched

Ourhistory

WinnerofLloydsScienceofRiskprize

in2012,2013and2016

Newpartnerships tounderstand volcanicriskandearthquakecorrelation

Long-termcommitmenttothescienceofriskandresilience

PartneratUnderstandingRiskforum

WTWResearch NetworksupportstheR!SEinitiative launchedbyUNISDR

WTWResearch NetworkjoinstheU.K.National PreparednessCommission

2024London Catastrophe ModellingAward;Launch ofRiskand Resilience Review;Emergingriskssurvey

Institutionsfrom theU.S.,EuropeandJapanjointhenetwork

WTWResearchNetworklaunched with7U.K.universities

Peoplehubdeveloped

withthemes understanding globalsecurityrisk,societyandresilience

Firstprivate companiespartnerwiththeWTWResearchNetwork

NewpartnershipsonPandemicandEarthObservation

New partnershipsontsunamirisk, leadingtothe WTWJapan tsunamimodelin2014

2013

2020

2014

2018

2019

2016

2017

2007

2006

2015

2010

2011

2008

2009

riskindex.

Firstannualmeetingwith 7U.K.universities–developmentofresearch

programestablished

WTWResearch Networkuses JapaneseSupercomputertohelp

insurersmodel typhoons,hurricanesandclimatechange

WTWResearch Network ChairmanappointedtoU.K. PrimeMinister’s Councilfor ScienceandTechnology

WTWResearch Networkwins Google ResearchAwardforwork onseasonalclimateforecastvisualization

WTWResearch Networkconvenesthefirstinsurancesession attheEuropeanGeosciences

Foundersponsor oftheGlobal Earthquake Modelandlaunchofother globalmodelresearch

WTWResearchNetworkteamsupwiththe

U.S.National Academy ofSciences toimprovemanagementofextremeevents

i2012i

WTWleadstheAntarcticresearchand

surveyprogram tobetter understand theimpactofclimatechange

1-in-100Initiativelaunched

WTWResearchNetwork

supports

ClimateChangeRiskreport

commissionedbytheU.K.’s

Foreignand

CommonwealthOffice

WTWResearch NetworkInternationalSeismic

RiskSeminar

Floodpartners support responsesto regulatoryclimatechange stresstestrequirements

WTWResearchNetworkseminars ongeopoliticalandcyber

risk,volcanic ashcloudandemergingtechnologies

WTWlaunches CoalitionforClimateResilientInvestment(CCRIatU.N.summit

2021

Sciencefor Resiliencesummitheldcelebrating

15yearsofWTWResearchNetwork

WTWResearchNetworkteam expandsto strengthenNorthAmericaandmainland

Europefocus

i2022ii2024

2023

●

ModelResearch &Innovation,Organizational Resilience includingProtectionGap,

NatCatreview

Union(EGU)

Specialized

industry

approach

torisk

Flood

andwater

management

Peopleand

politicalrisk

Organizational

resilience

Weather

andclimate

Risk

modeling

Emerging

risks

Technology

Earth

risks

Testimonials

Introduction

Publications

8

Specializedindustryapproachtorisk

Introduction

Organizational

resilience

Technology

Peopleand

politicalrisk

Weather

andclimate

Flood

andwater

management

Earth

risks

Risk

modeling

Testimonials

Publications

Emerging

risks

Specialized

industry

9

approach

torisk

Specializedindustryapproachtorisk

Weknowthataspecializedindustry

approachtoriskmatters,andthe

WTWResearchNetworkissupporting

findingasmarterwaytoriskwithour

industryleadersacrossaseriesof

thematicareas—applyingourresearch

specialismsandconnectionstothechallengesandopportunitiesour

clientsarefacing.

Belowareafewexamplesofhowweapplyourscience-basedriskapproachtospecificindustries.

Specialized

industry

approach

torisk

Flood

andwater

management

Peopleand

politicalrisk

Organizational

resilience

Weather

andclimate

Risk

modeling

Emerging

risks

Technology

Earth

risks

Testimonials

Introduction

Publications

10

Aerospace

Naturalresources,chemicalsand

environmentalservices

Technologyand

telecommunications

ASmarterWaytoRisk

Financialinstitutionsandprofessional

services

Transportationandlogistics

Marine

Smartspecialization,smart

service,smartuseofdata.Itall

comestogethertohelpclosetheinsurancegapourclientsface.

We’rebringingriskandcapitalclosertogethertooptimizeriskspend.

AdamGarrard

GlobalHead-Risk&Broking

Realestate,hospitalityRetailanddistribution

andleisure

Specialized

industry

approach

torisk

Flood

andwater

management

Peopleand

politicalrisk

Organizational

resilience

Weather

andclimate

Risk

modeling

Emerging

risks

Technology

Earth

risks

Testimonials

Introduction

Publications

11

Aerospace

Theaerospaceindustryfacesseveralinterlockingchallenges.

Decarbonizationneedstobebalancedwithbusinessviability.Thereare

digitaltransformationdemandsand

expectationsaroundemergingfutureflighttechnologies.Climateadaptationandextremeweathereventscoupledwithincreasedgeopoliticaltensions

arecausingeconomicshocksanddisruptingoperationalactivities.

Weareworkingtosupportourclientsinunderstandingthesechanges.

Technology

Peopleand

politicalrisk

Organizational

resilience

Introduction

Specialized

industry

approach

torisk

Weather

andclimate

Flood

andwater

management

Earth

risks

Emerging

risks

FindoutmoreaboutourAviationsolutions

Thisincludes:

•Understandingtherangeofdisruptiveevents

throughourglobal

AirportRiskIndex

(ARI)tool,

whichcomparesanairport’sresilienceto19

potentialmajorthreatsfor110anonymizedairports.It’sbeenthebackboneofourdiscussionswithseniorleadersandriskmanagerssinceitwaslaunched

in2022,helpingthemdeliverresilientplanning

pathways.Thisbuildsonpartnerships,includingtheonewehavewith

MitigaSolutions

,acompanyabletomodelashcloudscenariosfortheindustry.

•Decarbonizingtheindustryandbringingdifferent

clientperspectivestothetablethroughthethree-

year

TowardsZeroCarbonAviation(TOZCA)

project

ledbyProfessorAndreasSchäferatthe

AirTransportationSystemsLab,UniversityCollege

London.Thisincludesexamininghowthesector

canrealisticallymovetowardanetzeroclimate

impactglobalaviationsystemby2050andthecostsandemissionstrajectoriesassociatedwithsuch

transitions,lookingatchangesintechnology,fuelalternatives,operationalchangesandconsumerbehaviormodificationsthatcanleadtodrastic

carbondioxideemissionreductions.Weare

regularlysharinginsightsonthecomplexitiesandfutureprospectsofaviationfueldecarbonization(e.g.,

Partone:Thefutureofaviationfuel,the

decarbonizationchallenge

).

Testimonials

Publications

Risk

modeling

12

Financialinstitutionsandprofessional

services

Financialinstitutions’guidance,servicesandsolutionsareinhighdemand.

Theyhaveplentyofopportunitiesto

helptheirclientsthroughavolatile

economicenvironment.Andtheyhavenewtoolssuchasartificialintelligence(AI)tomanageclientrelationships.

Manyhavealreadytakenproactive

measurestoshoreuptheirbusinessandtalentstrategiesandarebettersuited

tooperateinthecurrentenvironment;

however,financialinstitutionsface

severalimportantrisks,rangingfromgeopoliticalriskstotheneedto

Findoutmoreaboutour

Insurance&Consultingsolutions

Findoutmoreaboutour

Financialinstitutionssolutions

Technology

Peopleand

politicalrisk

Organizational

resilience

Introduction

Specialized

industry

approach

torisk

Weather

andclimate

Flood

andwater

management

Earth

risks

Emerging

risks

challengemodelingassumptions.Weareworkingtosupportourclientsinunderstandingthesechanges.

Thisincludesthefollowing:

•AstheCOVID-19crisisrevealedhidden

interconnections,itreinvigoratedthedebate

aroundhowtoavoidthefailureofimagination

whenplanningforcrisesandtheneedfor“whole

ofsociety”approachestoriskandresilience.WTWcontinuestoexploreandrespondtotheseissues

throughourworkwiththe

NationalPreparedness

Commission

,whichdoesn’tshyawayfromthe

largesocietalvulnerabilities,andhasvaluable

conveningpowertobringtogetherawiderangeofstakeholderstorecommendaction.

•Foreffectiveriskmanagement,insurersrequire

acatastrophemodelevaluationframeworkthat

focusesonpastperformance,expertjudgments,

consistencyinconfidencelevelsandawell-definedattitudetomodelrisk.A

newresearchcollaboration

betweenWTWandLondonMathematicalLaboratorywillbeexploringthecalibrationandevaluation

ofcatastrophemodelsforinsurancedecision

making.WTWhasbeenakeymemberoftheRoyalMeteorologicalSociety’sSpecialInterestGroup

onInsurance,seekingtostrengthenlinksbetweenmeteorologistsandtheinsurancesector.

•India’sfinancialsectorisactivelyaddressing

climate-relatedfinancialrisks.Ourresearch,in

collaborationwiththeLondonSchoolofEconomicsandPoliticalScience,focusesonensuringthatjusttransitionpoliciesprotectthefinancialstabilityandreducethevulnerabilityofsmallborrowers,offeringpolicy-relevantinsightstoguidedevelopingnationsinmanagingtheseriskseffectively.

Testimonials

Publications

Risk

modeling

13

Marine

Around90%ofworldtradereliesonsea

transportandeffectiveriskmanagementfortheshipownersandfacilitiesthatcarryitout.

Recentglobaldisruptioneventshave

highlightedtheneedfororganizationstodevelopabetterunderstanding

ofissuesrangingfromgeopolitical

trendstoextremedisruptiveeventstosupporttheirexistingriskmanagementprocessesaswellastheimportanceofbuildingresilience.Weareworkingtosupportourclientsinunderstanding

thesechanges.

FindoutmoreaboutourMarinesolutions

Organizational

resilience

Introduction

Technology

Peopleand

politicalrisk

Weather

andclimate

Flood

andwater

management

Earth

risks

Emerging

risks

Specialized

industry

approach

torisk

Thisincludes:

•Understandingtherangeofglobaldisruptiveeventsthroughour

PortsandTerminalRiskIndex

tool,

whichcomparesaport’sresilienceto16potential

majorthreatsfor59anonymizedportauthorities

andterminaloperatorsglobally.Wealsocontinuetoexplore

supplychainrisksacrossthetransportation

andlogisticsindustry

tobuildsharedunderstandingofthesector’sriskdriversandwhereinsurersmightfillprotectiongaps,providingpracticalperspectivesonovercomingthesupplychainchallengesfacing

allstakeholdersacrosstheindustry.

•Takingdeepdivesontherelevanceofgeopoliticalriskstospecificindustries.ThroughourGeopolcastpodcast,WRNpartnerElisabethBrawdiscusses

how

geopoliticshasenteredthemaritimedomain

andtheimpactsofthisnewunpredictability

formaritime.

•Exploringtheuseofdigitaltwinsasacost-effectiveandpracticalsolutionfordigitizingphysical

replications.Astheworldbecomesmoredigital,

theneedforthiswillbecomeevenmoreprevalent.ThroughourChallengeFund,WTWhasbeen

consideringtheuseofdigitaltwinswithGlasgow

Universitytoexaminehowthemaritimeshipping

industrywouldfunctioninthefaceofacyberattackonadigitaltwinofamarinecargoship.

Testimonials

Publications

Risk

modeling

14

Findoutmoreaboutour

Naturalresourcessolutions

Naturalresources,chemicalsand

environmentalservices

Theenergytransition,geopolitical

developmentsandthechanging

macroeconomicenvironmentareconvergingtocreatenewriskconsiderationsthatcould

haveamoresevereimpactonbusinessesthanwaspreviouslyanticipated.

Asthewholeenergysystemundergoestransformation,adaptationand

strategicdecisionmakingwillbe

crucial.Weareworkingtosupportourclientsinunderstandingthesechanges.

Thisincludes:

•Emergingrisksarereshapingthe

energy

miningandmetalslandscape.Weareintentonunderstanding

how,withafocusontheactionsorganizationscan

take.Itisimperativethatriskleaderslookbeyondtheshort-term,day-to-dayriskexposuresandexamine

thischangingenvironmentwithabroaderlens.

Whilemanyoftheemergingriskswearefacing

arenotnew,thelandscapeisrapidlyevolving,and

thebiggestriskmaybeinaction.Thisincludes

improvingunderstandingoflongfamiliarrisks,suchashowclimaterisksmayinfluence

tailingsstorage

facilities

fromday-to-dayoperationstosettingdesignparametersforpost-closureplans.

•Whilerenewableenergysourcessuchassolar,

wind,hydro,geothermalandoceanenergyarevitaltomitigatingclimatechange,theydependheavily

onweatherconditions.Asenergysystemsrely

moreonrenewables,risksfromweakwinds,dry

spellsandcloudyskiescouldreducepowersupply,creatingrenewableenergy“droughts.”Alongside

ourcolleaguesinGlobalRenewableEnergy,weareapplyingthelatestpredictionsofElNiño,LaNiña

andotherkeyaspectsofglobalclimatetoanticipateimpendingrenewableshortfallsandmakesmarter

decisionsaboutthedesignandmanagementofregionalenergygrids.

•Thereisincreasedcompetitionacrosstheglobe,

enhancedbyresourcescarcityandclimatefragility.Criticalnationalinfrastructureessentialtothe

transmissionofelectricityorfuelhascomeunder

increasingriskascasualtiesof

grayzoneaggression

resultingfromgeopoliticaltensions,aspredictedbyourresearchstartedwithElisabethBrawin2019.Weareexploring

greencompetition

inanenvironmentofresourcenationalizationandenergysecuritywithWRNpartnerCullenHendrixatthePetersonInstituteforInternationalEconomics.

Specialized

industry

approach

torisk

Flood

andwater

management

Peopleand

politicalrisk

Organizational

resilience

Weather

andclimate

Risk

modeling

Emerging

risks

Technology

Earth

risks

Testimonials

Introduction

Publications

15

FindoutmoreaboutourRealestatesolutions

Findoutmoreaboutour

Leisure&Hospitalitysolutions

Realestate,hospitalityandleisure

Realestatecompaniesfaceamyriadofcomplexchallengesandriskstotheir

investme