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18July2024|3:09PMEDT
GlobalRatesNotes:SufficientLiquidity,ConstrainedCapacity
n
n
n
Treasuryreporatesremainbroadlyanchored,butmoresustainedpressuresincequarter-endsuggestsashiftindynamics.
Arangeoffactorspointtopressurearisingfromconstraintsoncapacityto
facilitatetheflowofliquidityfromproviderstoendusers,ratherthaninsufficientlevelsofliquiditysystem-wide.
Frictionsleavefundingmarketsmorevulnerabletovolatilityonsharp
withdrawalsofliquidityfromthesystem,presentingsomerisktoourQT
baseline.AnearlierendtoFedbalancesheetrunoffwouldbeanimperfect
solution,however,asitwouldnotresolvecapacitylimitationsinanenvironmentstillreliantontheintermediationofshort-termcashlendingandlonger-termdebtsupply.
WilliamMarshall
+1(212)357-0413|
william.c.marshall@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC
BillZu
+1(212)357-8230|bill.zu@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC
GustavoPereira
+1(917)343-3214|
gustavo.pereira@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC
Treasuryreporatesremainbroadlyanchored,withSOFRlessvolatileandmore
reliablywithintheFed’stargetrangecomparedtothe2018/2019experience(Exhibit1).Thereappearstohavebeenashiftinbehavior,however,bringingmorepersistentpressureoverthelastmonth.Ofparticularnote,aftershort-lived(partial)relief
followingquarter-end,Treasuryreporateshavecreptbackuptocomparativelyelevatedlevelsrelativetothepatternobservedinpriorquarters(Exhibit2).
Withquantitativetightening(QT)ongoing,anaturalquestioniswhetherrecent
pressureisasymptomofsystem-wideliquidityapproachingapointofscarcity.We
areskepticalthatistheexplanation;rather,wethinkthepressurereflects
_
bottlenecksinthesystem’sabilitytoefficientlychannelliquiditytowhereitisneeded.
Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegAC
certificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto/research/hedge.html.
GoldmanSachsGlobalRatesNotes
Exhibit1:Whilevolatilityhasnudgedhigher,therealityremainsthatdollarfundingcostsarerelativelystableandfirmlywithintheFed’stargetrange
SOFR-IORBvsFedtargetrange
Exhibit2:AfternormalizingtoahigherlevelfollowingtheendofQ2,SOFRhastickedbackup
SOFRaroundrecentquarter-ends
bp25201510 5 0 -5-10-15-20
-25
2018
2019
FedTargetRangeSOFR-IORB
20202021202220232024
Jun-24
%
Sep-23Dec-23Mar-24
5.42
5.40
5.38
5.36
5.34
5.32
5.30
5.28
1520
-5
0510
Daysfromquarter-end
Source:Bloomberg,FederalReserve,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchSource:Bloomberg,FederalReserve,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
Wenotedlastweekthat,whiletri-partyreporates(wheremoneyfundsprimarilylendtodealers)havemovedup,themorepronouncedmovehigherhasbeeningeneral
collateralfinancing(GCF)anddeliveryversuspayment(DVP)rates(whereendusers
suchashedgefundsborrow,predominantlyfromdealers).Theresultingwiderspread
(Exhibit3)likelyreflectsagreatercostassociatedwithdealers’abilitytointermediate
theflowofliquidity.TheuptickinsponsoredrepoactivityrelativetoGCFandcleared
DVPvolumes(Exhibit4)doesindicatethatsomeactivityisshiftingtolessbalancesheetintensive(fromaleverageratioperspective)outlets.However,whetherdueto
incompleteprogresstowardsonboardingmarketparticipantsintosponsoredrepo,orrisk-adjustedcapitalconstraints,thereappeartobelimitstotheamountthatcanflowthroughthisavenuetoalleviatebroaderpressure.
Exhibit3:FundingpressurehasbeenmorereadilyapparentinDVPandGCFratesthanintri-partyborrowingcosts
_
AverageDVPratelessTGCRspread(estimates)
Exhibit4:Lendinginsponsoredrepoappearstohavepickedupoflate
FICCsponsoredreverserepovolumesvstotalSOFRvolume(ex-TGCR)
bpDVP-TGCRSpread
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24
1mAverage
Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24
$bn
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
Mar-23
SponsoredreverserepovolumesSOFRvolumeex-TGCR
Jul-23Nov-23Mar-24
Source:HaverAnalytics,FederalReserve,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchSource:DTCC,FederalReserve,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
Weretheproblemsimplyoneofliquidity,wewouldexpecthighermarket-basedratesshouldcorrespondtofurtherdeclinesintheFed’sreverserepo(RRP)facility.Instead,RRPusagehasremainedfairlystickydespitemarket-basedratessettingmore
consistentlyabovetheRRPrate(Exhibit5).Moneyfundscontinuetoaccumulatecash,andtheRRPfacilityitremainsacomparativelyelastic(iflessattractive)outlet.Wethink
18July20242
GoldmanSachsGlobalRatesNotes
highertri-partyratesreflectmoneyfundshavingabitmorepricingpoweranddealersbeingabletolendatasufficientlyhighratetostillearnawideenoughspreadbetweenwheretheyareborrowingandlending.
Whatthisdoesnotexplain,however,iswherethisincreaseindemandforleverageis
comingfromandwhydealersareencounteringconstraints.TheincreaseddemandforleverageistousafunctionofelevatedTreasurysupplyandtheecosysteminwhich
durationisabsorbed.ForatleastaportionofTreasuryissuance,assetmanagersabsorbthedurationviafutures,andmoneyfundslendthecashindirectlyviarepo.Levered
fundsfacilitatepartofthisbytakingtheothersideofassetmanagers’longinfuturesandbuyingTreasuries(onrepo);dealershelptointermediatetherepotransaction.
Thisisbynomeansanewphenomenon.However,afterthesepositionsbriefly
stabilizedinQ1,therehasbeenanotableextensioninassetmanagernetlongsin
Treasuryfuturesmirroredbyamaterialbuildinleveredfundnetshorts,takingbothto
recordlevels(Exhibit6).Thishasbeenaccompaniedbyevidenceofgreaterdemandforrepofunding,visibleinrecordhighvolumeinDVPrepoandlargerdealerrepobooksize.
Exhibit5:DespitereporatessustaininglevelsabovetheRRPfacility’srate,RRPusagehasbeenrelativelysticky
RRPusagevstri-partyGeneralCollateralRate(TGCR)lessRRPRatedifferential
Exhibit6:Therecentincreaseinfundingpressurehasfollowedafurtherbuildinassetmanagerlongsandfastmoneyshortsin
Treasuryfutures
NetpositionsinTreasuryfutures(contractsscaledbycontractsize)
$bnRRPUsage
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
_
Jan-23Apr-23Jul-23
TGCR-RRPRate(rhs)
Oct-23Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24
bp6543210-1-2-3-4-5
$bn
1000
800
600
400
200
0
-200
-400
-600
-800
-1000
2017
Dealers
20182019
AsstMgrLevFunds
20202021202220232024
Source:Bloomberg,FederalReserve,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchSource:HaverAnalytics,CFTC,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
Regardingdealerconstraints,onepossibilityisearlier-than-usualeffortstomitigate
G-SIBscores.Whiletheseconsiderationstypicallycomeintofocusclosertoyear-end,inMayourbanksanalystshighlightedthatthisbehavioralreadyappearedtobeevident,
drivenbyseveralbanksfinishing2023atthehighendoftheirG-SIBbuckets,
considerableyear-to-dategrowthinanumberofG-SIBindicators,andnominalcalculationmeasuresthatdonottakeinflationintoaccount.Theeffectsarenot
broad-basedacrossmeasuresofdollarfundingcosts—crosscurrencybasesremain
tightbyhistoricalstandards(Exhibit7)—nordotheyappeartobehavingadverseeffectsonmeasuresofmarketfunction(Exhibit8).Evidenceofpressuresarenot,however,
strictlyisolatedtotheTreasuryrepomarket.Insteadpressureappearstobeassociatedwithareaswhereend-userdemandforleveredorsyntheticformsofriskexposure
(durationorotherwise)isatall-timehighs.
Thereisasimilarneedforintermediationinequitiesowingtoassetmanagerdemandviafutures.InTreasuries,asnotedabove,itisleveredfundswhoarepredominantly
18July20243
GoldmanSachsGlobalRatesNotes
shortfuturesversusTreasuries,withrelianceondealerbalancesheetduetotheneedforrepocapacity.Inequities,however,alargerportionofthenetshortresideswith
dealers(apositionthatissimilarlynearanall-timerecord),withpressurearisingfromtheirneedtohedgethatpositionwithunderlyingstock.Thisresultsinsomenuanceinhowthispressuremanifests—inTreasuriesasawiderspreadbetweenwheredealersfund(tri-party)andwheretheylend(DVP),versusinequitiesaswiderimpliedfundingcostsinfutures.Wewouldpositthat,ifthecash/futuresbasistradeinTreasuriessatlargelywithdealers(ratherthanwithhedgefunds),theseconstraintswouldmanifestmoresimilarly,correspondingtomorenegativenetbases/higherimpliedreporates.
Exhibit7:Comparativelytightcrosscurrencybasessuggest
fundingpressuresarebeingdrivenbyspecificfactorsratherthanbroaderscarcityindollarliquidity
3mEURUSDandUSDJPYOIScross-currencybases
Exhibit8:MeasuresofTreasurymarketliquiditylookfairlyhealthy,especiallyrelativetolevelsofvolatility
3m10yimpliedvolvs10ypriceimpactofsignedorderflow
bp3mEURUSDOISbasis
0
-25
-50
-75
-100
-125
2018201920202021
3mUSDJPYOISbasis
20222023
1800.7
abp3m10yVol10yPriceimpactcoefficient(rhs)$/$bn
1600.6
1400.5
1200.4
1000.3
800.2
600.1
400
201620172018201920202021202220232024
Source:GoldmanSachs,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchSource:GoldmanSachs,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
Intermediationbottlenecksinaworldwhereliquidityisunevenlydistributedraisestheriskofheightenedfundingmarketvolatilitywhenliquidityisrapidlywithdrawnfromthesystem.That,inturn,raisesthepossibilitythatthesedynamicscouldultimatelypromptaprematureendtoQT.AnearlierendtoFedbalancesheetrunoffwouldbean
_
imperfectsolution,however.Itwouldleavecapacitylimitationsunresolvedinanenvironmentstillreliantontheneedtointermediateshort-termcashlendingandlonger-termdebtsupply.
Amigrationofcashfromthefront-endoutthecurve,possiblyastheFedcutsrates,
couldhelp,butitisnotapparentthiswouldresultinasubstantialreductionindemandforleveragegiventhattherewouldstillbeefficienciesforassetmanagersinusing
Treasuryfutures.RelaxationofG-SIBmitigationeffortsorchangestobankregulationscouldhelptofreeupflexibilityinsomeoftheseareas—whetherwithrespecttoG-SIBcalculations(whererecentreportssuggestedtheFedisconsideringupdating
coefficients),orrisk-basedcapital(whichcouldopenupgreatercapacityforgrowthin
sponsoredrepo).Nearterm,however,wethinkreliefmaybeslowtomaterialize,leavingriskstiltedtowardstherecentincreaseinpressureonfundingcostspersisting.
18July20244
GoldmanSachsGlobalRatesNotes
DisclosureAppendix
RegAC
We,WilliamMarshall,BillZuandGustavoPereira,herebycertifythatalloftheviewsexpressedinthisreportaccuratelyreflectourpersonalviews,whichhavenotbeeninfluencedbyconsiderationsofthefirm’sbusinessorclientrelationships.
Unlessotherwisestated,theindividualslistedonthecoverpageofthisreportareanalystsinGoldmanSachs’GlobalInvestmentResearchdivision.
Disclosures
Regulatorydisclosures
DisclosuresrequiredbyUnitedStateslawsandregulations
Seecompany-specificregulatorydisclosuresaboveforanyofthefollowingdisclosuresrequiredastocompaniesreferredtointhisreport:managerorco-managerinapendingtransaction;1%orotherownership;compensationforcertainservices;typesofclientrelationships;managed/co-managedpublicofferingsinpriorperiods;directorships;forequitysecurities,marketmakingand/orspecialistrole.GoldmanSachstradesormaytradeasa
principalindebtsecurities(orinrelatedderivatives)ofissuersdiscussedinthisreport.
Thefollowingareadditionalrequireddisclosures:Ownershipandmaterialconflictsofinterest:GoldmanSachspolicyprohibitsitsanalysts,professionalsreportingtoanalystsandmembersoftheirhouseholdsfromowningsecuritiesofanycompanyintheanalyst’sareaofcoverage.
Analystcompensation:AnalystsarepaidinpartbasedontheprofitabilityofGoldmanSachs,whichincludesinvestmentbankingrevenues.Analystasofficerordirector:GoldmanSachspolicygenerallyprohibitsitsanalysts,personsreportingtoanalystsormembersoftheirhouseholdsfrom
servingasanofficer,directororadvisorofanycompanyintheanalyst’sareaofcoverage.Non-U.S.Analysts:Non-U.S.analystsmaynotbeassociatedpersonsofGoldmanSachs&Co.LLCandthereforemaynotbesubjecttoFINRARule2241orFINRARule2242restrictionson
communicationswithsubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbytheanalysts.
AdditionaldisclosuresrequiredunderthelawsandregulationsofjurisdictionsotherthantheUnitedStates
Thefollowingdisclosuresarethoserequiredbythejurisdictionindicated,excepttotheextentalreadymadeabovepursuanttoUnitedStateslawsandregulations.Australia:GoldmanSachsAustraliaPtyLtdanditsaffiliatesarenotauthoriseddeposit-takinginstitutions(asthattermisdefinedinthe
BankingAct1959(Cth))inAustraliaanddonotprovidebankingservices,norcarryonabankingbusiness,inAustralia.Thisresearch,andanyaccesstoit,isintendedonlyfor“wholesaleclients”withinthemeaningoftheAustralianCorporationsAct,unlessotherwiseagreedbyGoldmanSachs.In
producingresearchreports,membersofGlobalInvestmentResearchofGoldmanSachsAustraliamayattendsitevisitsandothermeetingshostedbythecompaniesandotherentitieswhicharethesubjectofitsresearchreports.InsomeinstancesthecostsofsuchsitevisitsormeetingsmaybemetinpartorinwholebytheissuersconcernedifGoldmanSachsAustraliaconsidersitisappropriateandreasonableinthespecificcircumstancesrelatingtothesitevisitormeeting.Totheextentthatthecontentsofthisdocumentcontainsanyfinancialproductadvice,itisgeneraladviceonlyandhas
beenpreparedbyGoldmanSachswithouttakingintoaccountaclient’sobjectives,financialsituationorneeds.Aclientshould,beforeactingonany
suchadvice,considertheappropriatenessoftheadvicehavingregardtotheclient’sownobjectives,financialsituationandneeds.Acopyofcertain
GoldmanSachsAustraliaandNewZealanddisclosureofinterestsandacopyofGoldmanSachs’AustralianSell-SideResearchIndependencePolicy
Statementareavailableat:/disclosures/australia-new-zealand/index.html.Brazil:DisclosureinformationinrelationtoCVMResolutionn.20isavailableat/worldwide/brazil/area/gir/index.html.Whereapplicable,theBrazil-registeredanalystprimarilyresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreport,asdefinedinArticle20ofCVMResolutionn.20,isthefirstauthornamedatthebeginningofthisreport,unlessindicatedotherwiseattheendofthetext.Canada:Thisinformationisbeingprovidedtoyouforinformationpurposesonlyandisnot,andundernocircumstancesshouldbeconstruedas,anadvertisement,offeringorsolicitationbyGoldmanSachs&Co.LLCforpurchasersof
securitiesinCanadatotradeinanyCanadiansecurity.GoldmanSachs&Co.LLCisnotregisteredasadealerinanyjurisdictioninCanadaunder
applicableCanadiansecuritieslawsandgenerallyisnotpermittedtotradeinCanadiansecuritiesandmaybeprohibitedfromsellingcertainsecuritiesandproductsincertainjurisdictionsinCanada.IfyouwishtotradeinanyCanadiansecuritiesorotherproductsinCanadapleasecontactGoldman
SachsCanadaInc.,anaffiliateofTheGoldmanSachsGroupInc.,oranotherregisteredCanadiandealer.HongKong:Furtherinformationonthe
_
securitiesofcoveredcompaniesreferredtointhisresearchmaybeobtainedonrequestfromGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.India:FurtherinformationonthesubjectcompanyorcompaniesreferredtointhisresearchmaybeobtainedfromGoldmanSachs(India)SecuritiesPrivateLimited,Research
Analyst-SEBIRegistrationNumberINH000001493,951-A,RationalHouse,AppasahebMaratheMarg,Prabhadevi,Mumbai400025,India,CorporateIdentityNumberU74140MH2006FTC160634,Phone+912266169000,Fax+912266169001.GoldmanSachsmaybeneficiallyown1%ormoreofthesecurities(assuchtermisdefinedinclause2(h)theIndianSecuritiesContracts(Regulation)Act,1956)ofthesubjectcompanyorcompanies
referredtointhisresearchreport.Investmentinsecuritiesmarketaresubjecttomarketrisks.Readalltherelateddocumentscarefullybefore
investing.RegistrationgrantedbySEBIandcertificationfromNISMinnowayguaranteeperformanceoftheintermediaryorprovideanyassuranceofreturnstoinvestors.GoldmanSachs(India)SecuritiesPrivateLimitedInvestorGrievanceE-mail:india-client-support@.ComplianceOfficer:AnilRajput|Tel:+912266169000|Email:anil.m.rajput@.Japan:Seebelow.Korea:Thisresearch,andanyaccesstoit,isintendedonlyfor
“professionalinvestors”withinthemeaningoftheFinancialServicesandCapitalMarketsAct,unlessotherwiseagreedbyGoldmanSachs.Further
informationonthesubjectcompanyorcompaniesreferredtointhisresearchmaybeobtainedfromGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.,SeoulBranch.NewZealand:GoldmanSachsNewZealandLimitedanditsaffiliatesareneither“registeredbanks”nor“deposittakers”(asdefinedintheReserveBankofNewZealandAct1989)inNewZealand.Thisresearch,andanyaccesstoit,isintendedfor“wholesaleclients”(asdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersAct2008)unlessotherwiseagreedbyGoldmanSachs.AcopyofcertainGoldmanSachsAustraliaandNewZealanddisclosureofinterestsisavailableat:
/disclosures/australia-new-zealand/index.html
.Russia:ResearchreportsdistributedintheRussianFederationarenotadvertisingasdefinedintheRussianlegislation,butareinformationandanalysisnothavingproductpromotionastheirmainpurposeanddonot
provideappraisalwithinthemeaningoftheRussianlegislationonappraisalactivity.Researchreportsdonotconstituteapersonalizedinvestment
recommendationasdefinedinRussianlawsandregulations,arenotaddressedtoaspecificclient,andarepreparedwithoutanalyzingthefinancial
circumstances,investmentprofilesorriskprofilesofclients.GoldmanSachsassumesnoresponsibilityforanyinvestmentdecisionsthatmaybetakenbyaclientoranyotherpersonbasedonthisresearchreport.Singapore:GoldmanSachs(Singapore)Pte.(CompanyNumber:198602165W),whichisregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingapore,acceptslegalresponsibilityforthisresearch,andshouldbecontactedwithrespecttoanymatters
arisingfrom,orinconnectionwith,thisresearch.Taiwan:Thismaterialisforreferenceonlyandmustnotbereprintedwithoutpermission.Investorsshouldcarefullyconsidertheirowninvestmentrisk.Investmentresultsaretheresponsibilityoftheindividualinvestor.UnitedKingdom:PersonswhowouldbecategorizedasretailclientsintheUnitedKingdom,assuchtermisdefinedintherulesoftheFinancialConductAuthority,shouldreadthis
researchinconjunctionwithpriorGoldmanSachsresearchonthecoveredcompaniesreferredtohereinandshouldrefertotheriskwarningsthathavebeensenttothembyGoldmanSachsInternational.Acopyoftheseriskswarnings,andaglossaryofcertainfinancialtermsusedinthisreport,are
availablefromGoldmanSachsInternationalonrequest.
EuropeanUnionandUnitedKingdom:DisclosureinformationinrelationtoArticle6(2)oftheEuropeanCommissionDelegatedRegulation(EU)(2016/958)supplementingRegulation(EU)No596/2014oftheEuropeanParliamentandoftheCouncil(includingasthatDelegatedRegulationis
18July20245
GoldmanSachsGlobalRatesNotes
implementedintoUnitedKingdomdomesticlawandregulationfollowingtheUnitedKingdom’sdeparturefromtheEuropeanUnionandtheEuropeanEconomicArea)withregardtoregulatorytechnicalstandardsforthetechnicalarrangementsforobjectivepresentationofinvestment
recommendationsorotherinformationrecommendingorsuggestinganinvestmentstrategyandfordisclosureofparticularinterestsorindicationsofconflictsofinterestisavailableat/disclosures/europeanpolicy.htmlwhichstatestheEuropeanPolicyforManagingConflictsof
InterestinConnectionwithInvestmentResearch.
Japan:GoldmanSachsJapanCo.,Ltd.isaFinancialInstrumentDealerregisteredwiththeKantoFinancialBureauunderregistrationnumberKinsho69,andamemberofJapanSecuritiesDealersAssociation,FinancialFuturesAssociationofJapanTypeIIFinancialInstrumentsFirmsAssociation,The
InvestmentTrustsAssociation,Japan,andJapanInvestmentAdvisersAssociation.Salesandpurchaseofequitiesaresubjecttocommission
pre-determinedwithclientsplusconsumptiontax.Seecompany-specificdisclosuresastoanyapplicabledisclosuresrequiredbyJapanesestockexchanges,theJapaneseSecuritiesDealersAssociationortheJapaneseSecuritiesFinanceCompany.
Globalproduct;distributingentities
GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchproducesanddistributesresearchproductsforclientsofGoldmanSachsonaglobalbasis.AnalystsbasedinGoldmanSachsofficesaroundtheworldproduceresearchonindustriesandcompanies,andresearchonmacroeconomics,currencies,commoditiesandportfoliostrategy.ThisresearchisdisseminatedinAustraliabyGoldmanSachsAustraliaPtyLtd(ABN21006797897);inBrazilbyGoldmanSachsdoBrasilCorretoradeTítuloseValoresMobiliáriosS.A.;PublicCommunicationChannelGoldmanSachsBrazil:08007275764and/or
contatogoldmanbrasil@.AvailableWeekdays(exceptholidays),from9amto6pm.CanaldeComunicaçãocomoPúblicoGoldmanSachsBrasil:08007275764e/oucontatogoldmanbrasil@.Horáriodefuncionamento:segunda-feiraàsexta-feira(excetoferiados),das9hàs18h;inCanada
byGoldmanSachs&Co.LLC;inHongKongbyGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.;inIndiabyGoldmanSachs(India)SecuritiesPrivateLtd.;inJapanby
GoldmanSachsJapanCo.,Ltd.;intheRepublicofKoreabyGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.,SeoulBranch;inNewZealandbyGoldmanSachsNew
ZealandLimited;inRussiabyOOOGoldmanSachs;inSingaporebyGoldmanSachs(Singapore)Pte.(CompanyNumber:198602165W);andinthe
UnitedStatesofAmericabyGoldmanSachs&Co.LLC.GoldmanSachsInternationalhasapprovedthisresearchinconnectionwithitsdi
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