宏观及大类资产半年报：经济外升内乏金与债皆可贵

>商品（10.1%美元（4.4%债券（-3.2%）。 4 4 7 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 16 17 17 17 17 17 18 19 19 20 21 21 21 22 22确定性和供应链的潜在风险仍在，或扰动全球制造业的持国家国家2024-062024-052024-042024-032024-022024-012023-122023-112023-102023-092023-082023-0751.645.843.545.450.954.045.750.052.053.751.754.751.750.749.958.352.551.154.943.2美国欧元区德国法国英国希腊意大利日本韩国中国台湾东盟越南泰国印尼马来西亚墨西哥俄罗斯南非51.946.141.946.250.356.950.448.249.847.951.549.949.154.248.459.153.652.255.750.351.347.345.446.451.254.945.650.451.655.451.750.350.352.150.257.552.151.254.444.847.944.443.342.146.251.345.347.949.946.849.748.945.152.247.954.948.452.054.648.550.045.742.545.349.155.247.349.649.449.451.050.348.652.949.058.855.951.054.349.152.246.542.547.147.555.748.747.250.748.150.450.445.352.749.556.954.152.354.751.950.746.645.543.147.354.748.548.051.248.050.350.346.752.949.056.552.850.252.441.849.444.242.642.947.250.944.448.350.046.850.047.347.651.747.956.049.452.553.854.950.043.140.842.844.850.844.948.749.847.149.649.647.551.546.855.548.652.153.848.749.843.439.644.244.350.346.848.549.948.249.649.747.852.346.857.549.049.854.546.647.943.539.146.043.052.945.449.648.945.551.050.548.953.947.858.650.151.252.750.749.042.738.845.145.353.544.549.649.446.150.848.750.753.347.857.747.853.252.144.8年上半年美国新增非农就业月均22.3万人回落的趋势上，美国就业市场已从过热状态逐渐降温，但依然保持相对稳健。与此同时，6政府消费支出和投资总额%10.05.00.0-5.0商品和服务净出口国内私人投资总额%10.05.00.0-5.0-0-美国:GDP环比2021-122022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-062023-092023-2021-122022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-062023-092023-122024-03%10.08.06.04.02.00.0-2.0CPI环比CPI同比核心CPI环比CPI环比CPI同比2021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-082023-112024-022024-052.01.61.20.80.40.0-0.4美国:新增非农就业人数:初值千人美国:失业率:季调80060040020002021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-012024-045.04.54.03.53.0落。此外，欧元区较美国更早开启降息，这也反映出其经济相%%0.80.0-0.82021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-012024-0412.08.04.00.0——欧元区:制造业PMI欧元区:服务业PMI%13.012.011.010.09.08.07.06.0——欧元区20国:失业率:季调欧元区:基准利率(主要再融资利率)2007-062007-06人数80.060.040.020.00.0——企业面临的地缘政治风险2011/062012/062013/062014/062015/062016/062017/062018/062019/062020/062021/062022/062023/062011/062012/062013/062014/062015/062016/062017/062018/062019/062020/062021/062022/062023/062024/06%75.065.055.045.035.025.0特朗普胜选概率2023/072023/082023/092023/102023/112023/122024/012024/022024/032024/042024/052024/062023/072023/082023/092023/102023/112023/122024/012024/022024/032024/042024/052024/06下读数或有所降温；供需缺口将在市场自身调节、政策引导下逐步弥合。15.010.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0-10.0-15.0-20.0-25.0-30.0工业生产消费投资地产销售出口PPICPI工业企业利润2024-012024-032024-052024-012024-032024-052024-012024-032024-052024-012024-032024-052024-012024-032024-052024-012024-032024-052024-012024-032024-052024-012024-032024-052024-012024-032024-052024-012024-032024-052024-012024-032024-052024-012024-032024-052024-012024-032024-052024-012024-032024-052024-012024-032024-052024-012024-032024-054-2-4中国:GDP:季调:环比%中国:GDP:不变价:当季同比2022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-062023-092023-122024-032024-062022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-062023-092023-122024-032024-06贸易差额（右轴）出口同比%进口同比%60.045.030.015.0 0.0-15.0-30.02022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-2022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-012024-04亿美元1,000.0800.0600.0400.0200.00.0201920222020202120232019202220202021202320240.6亿元10,000.0非金融企业：活期存款占比亿元10,000.00.55,000.00.40.02022-01-5,000.0地产优化政策，需求端下调首付比例、取消贷款利率下限、松绑限购等，供给端央行设立3000亿元保障性住房再贷款，用于支持地方国企收储以消化存量库存。地产政策的重点逐40.020.00.0-20.0——房地产开发投资基础设施建设投资制造业投资2015-102015-102016-042016-102017-042017-102018-042018-102019-042019-102020-042020-102021-042021-102022-042022-102023-042023-102024-04万平方米100.075.050.025.00.020192022202020212019202220232024010203040506070809101112国内货币政策掣肘减少、宽松的概率加大，而财政政策同样有望加码但预期不宜过202120222024202120222024亿元50,000.040,000.030,000.020,000.010,000.00.0202340.020.00.0-20.0——广义财政收入:累计值:同比广义财政支出:累计值:同比2016-022016-112017-082018-052019-022019-112020-082021-052022-022022-2016-022016-112017-082018-052019-022019-112020-082021-052022-022022-112023-082024-05>能化（+4.75%工业品（+2.85%农产品（+0.35%黑色（-10.93%中国债券1-6月收益率录得2.69%，表明人民币15.0%12.18%10.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%4.74%5.0%0.0%3.93%2.69%10.10%4.40%-3.16%-5.0%-3.16%-10.0%-8.01%-10.0%南华商品指数中国债券指数人民币指数万得全AMSCI全球CRB商品指数美元指数全球债券指数港股方面，1-6月恒生指数收涨3.94%，恒生科技收跌-5.57%；海外方面，美股受到AI1-6月走势1-6月涨跌幅（%）现价1-6月走势1-6月涨跌幅（%）现价2023年涨跌幅（%）-3.70-7.42-6.28-3.70-7.42-6.28 恒生指数恒生指数恒生科技恒生中国企业指数纳斯达克指数德国DAX -8.83 -8.836331.865460.488164.127479.402797.82 5.578.865.379.40 收缩，指数下跌，市场投资者陷入悲观。人民币汇率同步承压，自6月起单边下跌，突破亿元15,000.013,000.011,000.09,000.07,000.05,000.0成交额：21日移动平均2023-031.51.31.10.90.70.50.3换手率:21日移动平均2023-092023-128.07.06.05.04.03.0ma指数点位（右轴）风险溢价 均值+1STD均值+2STD 均值-1STD均值-2STD2022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-092023-112022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-092023-112024-012024-032024-052024-075,000.04,500.04,000.03,500.03,000.0指数点位（右轴）风险溢价%均值+1STD--均值+2STD均值-2STD均值-1STD均值-2STD2.00.02022-052022-072022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-092023-112024-012024-032024-052024-07点8,200.07,200.06,200.05,200.04,200.0倍60.050.040.030.020.010.00.0万得全A万得全A(除金融、石油石化)上证50沪深300中证500中证10002019-112021-022019-112021-022021-062021-092021-122022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-062023-092023-122024-032024-06两融余额亿元20,000.018,000.02021-062021-092021-122022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-062023-092023-122024-032024-06两融余额亿元20,00019,00018,00017,0002023-122024-012024-022024-032024-042024-052024-06北向资金:当日净买入额（右轴）北向资金:累计净买入额2023-122024-012024-022024-032024-042024-052024-063002000-100-20080.060.040.020.00.0-20.0-40.0万得全A上证50沪深300 中证500中证1000中证20002024-012024-022024-032024-042024-052024-062024-012024-022024-032024-042024-052024-0620.010.00.0-10.0-20.0-30.0工业企业利润:累计同比 ——工业企业利润:两年复合累计同比2022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-082023-2022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-082023-112024-022024年上半年债市延续了去年末的牛市行情，经济基本面复苏弹性不足是底色，市场地产迎来供需两侧齐发力的新政策，债市选择交易平庸的现实，风偏较低+资产荒的逻辑未荒”背景下机构配置需求仍在，利率中长期向下趋势不改，创新低或只是时间问题。亿元150,000100,00050,0000-50,000-100,000投放量亿元150,000100,00050,0000-50,000-100,0002023-032023-052023-072023-092023-112024-012024-032024-052023-032023-052023-072023-092023-112024-012024-032024-052.52.0一DR001DR007R001R0072024-042024-052024-062024-072024-042024-052024-062024-072.42.22.01.81.61.41.21.0亿元2.42.22.01.81.61.41.21.0亿元30,00020,00010,0000-10,000-20,0002023-012023-032023-052023-072023-092023-112024-012024-032023-012023-032023-052023-072023-092023-112024-012024-032024-05票据贴现利率（国股转贴：半年）2023-082023-122024-07%2.92.72.52.32.11.91.71.5变化（右轴）1月初国债收益曲线66月末国债收益曲线0.0-10.0-20.0-30.0-40.0-50.0-60.01Y3Y5Y7Y10Y30Y0.70.60.50.40.30.20.1国债期限利差:30Y-10Y国债期限利差:10Y-2Y2023-112024-012024-05鲍威尔释放鸽派信号，市场降息预期大起；2024年初美国就业数据仍然充满韧劲，美联储第二阶段：抢跑降息预期+担忧二次通胀+地缘政治风险，三者亿元2,500.02,300.02,100.01,900.01,700.0伦敦金现——美元指数（右轴）2023-082023-11108.0106.0104.0102.0100.098.0万盎司8,000.07,500.07,000.06,500.06,000.05,500.05,000.0中国:官方储备资产:黄金环比增加（右轴）2018-042018-2018-042018-102019-042019-102020-042020-102021-042021-102022-042022-102023-042023-102024-04120.0100.080.060.040.020.00.02024年上半年，铜作为基本金属中涨幅较高的资产备受关注，其无视利空不断上涨并第一阶段：供需偏松，降息预期摇摆，铜价震荡（1.慢，市场对2024年降息起