全球汽车激光雷达市场报告

AutomotiveLIDAR

Market:Competitive

Dynamics,Technology

Evolution,andRevenue

Trends

AutomotiveLiDARconference2023,October3-5

PierrickBoulay,SeniorAnalyst

INTELLIGENCETOSHAPEYOURTOMORROW

||©YoleIntelligence2023

AGENDA

1.Context

2.Integrationinpassengercars

3.Partnershipsandsupplychain

4.Marketview

5.Partnershipsandsupplychain

6.Technologytrends

7.Conclusion

AutomotiveLiDAR2023|Conference||©20232

CONTEXT

AdaptiveCruiseControl

AdaptiveCruise

Controlwith

Stop&Go

The

combinationofmultiple

sensorsisthebasisof

advanceddriving

functionalities.

Traffic-JamAssist

ALKS

<130km/h

Future

functionalities…

LKA&LCA

LaneKeepAssist

Howautomateddrivinghasbeenachieved

ALKS

<60km/h

Automateddriving

AutomotiveLiDAR2023|Conference||©20233

CONTEXT

Eyes-offapplications:anincrementalevolution

Usecases

202220242026-2028?2030-2035?2035-2040?2040-2050?

Highway

60km/h

Highway

130km/h

Highway

On-/Offramp

Arterial

Junctionsandtrafficlights

Rural

Alljunctions

Urban

Fullautonomy

Eachusecaseisanincrementalevolutionenabledbyanewgenerationofhardware(sensorsandcomputing)andsoftware.

Sensors

Computing

Sensors

Computing

Sensors

Computing

Sensors

Computing

Sensors

Computing

Sensors

Computing

Eachusecaseisenabledbyanew

generationofsensors.A

goodexampleistheValeo

Scala2,whichenables

applications

upto90km/h,

whiletheScala3enables

applicationsupto130

km/h.

Scala3

Scala2

Example:

AutomotiveLiDAR2023|Conference||©20234

5

AutomotiveLiDAR2023|Conference||©2023

CONTEXT

Necessaryhardwareforeyes-offapplications

EYES-OFF

Newsensorgeneration

Urban

Rural

Arterial

HW-ramp

HW-130kphHW-60kph

HANDS-OFF

Camera

rTesla

promises

Complexityisfollowingalogarithmicscale

Newsensorgeneration

Necessaryhardwaretoreach

advancedeyes-offapplications

87111113162025Sensors

Radar05566566

LiDAR01343344

The

complexityofeyes-off

applicationsisfollowingalogarithmicscale.

CONTEXT

OEMchoices:Electrification,automateddriving,orboth?

China'splantoinvestinEVtechnologies

startedintheearly2000s.Between2009

and2022,thegovernmentpouredover$29

billionintorelevantsubsidiesandtax

breakstohelplocalOEMstransitionfrom

ICEtoEV.Foradecadenow,newOEMs

haveemergedaspureEVplayers.Afterthe

EVtransition,theyarenowreadytopush

forautomateddriving.

EuropeanandUSOEMsarestartingthis

transitionwithincentivesandregulations

pushingthetransitionfromICEtoEV.This

meansthatOEMswillfacepenaltiesorbe

unabletosellcarsiftheyarenotpureEVs.

So,withthedevelopmentofautomated

drivingfeatures,mostOEMshaveto

makesomechoicesasthetransitionwill

beassociatedwithahighdevelopment

cost.FewOEMs,likeMercedes,Volvo,and

Cadillac,aredevelopingbothfeatures,but

thisislimitedtohigh-endvehiclesata

highsellingprice.

Time

AutomotiveLiDAR2023|Conference||©20236

Chinese

OEMshave

alreadymadetheEV

transitionallowingthemtointegrate

more

automateddriving

features.

CONTEXT

Passengercarmarket:distributionofcarswithLiDAR(2018-2022)

Startingprice

$100,000

$75,000

$50,000

Carsegment

E-FsegmentsarewhereADASinnovationsareinitiallyintroduced.Then,ADASsystemsprogressivelyspreadintoothersegments.

Source:CarsegmentclassificationfromMarklines

FirstcarswithLiDARwerein

theF-

segment.In2022,severalcarswith

LiDARare

nowintheD-segment,

withamuchlowerprice.

7

AutomotiveLiDAR2023|Conference||©2023

INTEGRATIONINPASSENGERCARS

EvolutionofLiDARposition

LiDARposition

Usecase

Limitedtohighwaysataspeedupto60km/h.

Noneedtoseefar

away.

Stoppingdistanceis

36mat60km/h.

TypicalLiDARposition:grilleorbumper

Limitedtohighwaysataspeedupto130km/h.

Needtoseefaraway(~200m).

Stoppingdistanceis170mat130km/h.

Goodpositiontoseeovertheroadseparationtodetectcarson

acurve.

TypicalLiDARposition:rooforbehindthewindshield

Withhigherspeeds,increasingthedetectionrangeisnecessary,aswellastheverticalresolution,inordertoidentifymorerapidlyothercarsaswellasotherobjectsontheroad.Thisdirectlyimpactsthebehaviorofthecarinautomateddrivingmode.

Toenable

highway

drivingat

130km/h,

thereisa

criticalneedtoimproveLiDAR

performance,especiallythedetection

range.

AutomotiveLiDAR2023|Conference||©20238

INTEGRATIONINPASSENGERCARS

position–Caseof

highway

ON/OFF

Ramp

on

EvolutionofLiDAR

LiDARpositionUsecase

Inthecaseofhighwaydrivingwithon/offramps,therewillbeaneedtoaddmultipleLiDARsaroundthevehicle.

Short-rangeLiDARswillbeneededonthesidestomonitorotherroad

users.

TherearLiDARcouldbemid-tolong-rangetomonitoron-comingcarsin"On-ramps.”

Typicallong-rangeLiDARposition:rooforbehindthewindshieldforhighwaydriving.

Typicalshort-rangeLiDARposition:fender,B-pillar,orroof.

Ontherearside,therangehasstilltobedefined,asamid-tolong-rangeLiDARcouldbeintegrated.TheLiDARcouldbe

integratedonahighmountingposition(rooforrearwindow)oronthebumper.Nonetheless,ahighermountingpositionwouldenablebetterdetectionofobjectsandusers.

Enabling

On/OffRampusecasemayrequireuptothree

additionalLiDARsina

car

AutomotiveLiDAR2023|Conference||©20239

INTEGRATIONINPASSENGERCARS

#ofLiDARs

6LiDAR

5LiDAR

Legend:4LiDAR

eLong-rangeeShort-range

3LiDAR

2LiDAR

1LiDAR

NumberofLiDARspercar:robotaxivs.passengercarcomparison

Eyes-offurban

Robotaxi~5-6LiDAR

Robotaxi~5-6LiDAR

<$6-7kofLiDARperrobotaxi

$15-20kofLiDARperrobotaxi

<$1,000

LiDAR

Eyes-offhighway

Passengercar:~1-2LiDAR

per

Passengercar:~3LiDAR

<$1,000of

LiDARpercar

2026e2028e2030e2032e

2018202020232024e

AutomotiveLiDAR2023|Conference||©202310

INTEGRATIONINPASSENGERCARS

LiDARvolumevslocation

Height(cm)

ThelocationofLiDARisrelatedtotheusecasesdevelopedbytheOEM.ButotherparameterslikevolumeandheightoftheLiDARcanenterintoconsideration.

High-volumeLiDAR,especiallythosebasedonfiberlasers,aretoobulkytobeplacedinlocationsotherthantheroof.

Forapositionbehindthewindshield,recentresearchfromCeptonandHesaishowsthatthevolumeneedstobelimited,aswellastheheight,toavoidobstructingthedriver’svision.

Duetotheircompactsize,LiDARsfromRoboSenseorHesaicanbeplacedeitherinthegrille,behindthewindshield,orontheroof.

LiDARvolume

INNVIZ

Bum

per

DESO

Grille

Roo

f

InnoFusion

LUMINAR

INNVIZ

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

05001000150020002500

Volume(cm3)

Windshield

Headlamps?

LiDARplacedbehindthe

windshield

needstobecompactandtohavealowheight.

AutomotiveLiDAR2023|Conference||©202311

PARTNERSHIPSANDSUPPLYCHAIN

Supplychainforpassengercarsanalysis:knowndesignwinssince2018(totalof144)(1/2)

Designwins-Splitbycountryoforigin

Therearetwomarkets:

Chinaandtherestofthe

world.

Chinese

OEMsareadoptingLiDARataveryrapidpace.

Designwins-SplitbyLiDARsupplier

JPIS1%3%

Innoviz2%

Cepton1%

Opsys

Technologies

DE

3%

Huawei2%

DsoConteIolLx

1%

US6%

FR8%

Innovusion5%

Valeo8%

Robosense43%

CN79%

Hesai31%

•RoboSenseandHesaihaveacumulative74%ofthedesignwins.ThatillustratestheintensedriveofChineseOEMsandhowquicklytheyareimplementingLiDARcomparedtotherestoftheworld.

•Valeohas8%ofthedesignwins.ThatdoesnotreflecttherealityastheyhavepartneredwithvariousOEMsformultiplecarmodels.ItisthecaseforStellantis;ithasbeencountedasonedesignwin,butmanycarmodels,numberunknown,willuseLiDAR.The1-billion-dollarcumulativeorderfortheScala

3bearswitnesstotheexcellentshapeofValeo.

•AsimilarunderstandingcanbemadeforInnovizwithVW;manycarmodelsareexpectedtoembedLiDAR.

AutomotiveLiDAR2023|Conference||©202312

PARTNERSHIPSANDSUPPLYCHAIN

Supplychainforpassengercarsanalysis:knowndesignwinssince2018(totalof144)(2/2)

Designwins-Splitbywavelength

Whilethe

905nm-basedLiDARshareisstill

increasing,

MEMS

technologyisalmostatthesamelevelashybridsolid-stateLiDAR.

Designwins-Splitbytechnology

1064nm885nm2%1%

1550nm8%

Flash5%

905nm89%

HybridSolid-

State

51%

MEMS44%

•905nm-basedLiDARclearlydominatesthemarket.LiDARperformanceatthiswavelengthisstillimproving,bothontheemittersidewithEELsorVCSELsandonthereceiverside,whereSiPMsandSPADsarereplacingAPDs.

•SomenewLiDARsuse940nminsteadof905nm,butthisslightshiftinwavelengthisnotsignificantenoughtodrasticallychangetheLiDAR'sperformanceortheunderlyingcomponents.

•Regardingimagingtechnology,MEMSandhybridsolid-statearealmostatthesamelevel.TheshareofMEMS-basedLiDARisduemainlytoRoboSense,oneoftheonlyplayers-withInnoviz-tousethistechnology.

AutomotiveLiDAR2023|Conference||©202313

MARKETVIEW

2022passengercarLiDARmarketshare

•TheLiDARmarketforpassengercarsincreasedrapidlyfrom2021,witha285%growth.

•Sinceitsinception,thepassengercarmarkethasbeendominatedbyValeo,withpartnershipswithEuropeanOEMslikeAudiandMercedes.

•Innovusion,aChinesesupplier,isleadingthemarketthankstoitspartnershipwiththeChineseautomakerNio.

•ChineseOEMsarerapidlyimplementingLiDARandareusinglocalsuppliers.

•Intotal,ChineseLiDARmanufacturerscontrol73%ofthemarket.

•AsHesaiandRobosensehavemanydesignwins,their2022revenueshouldbesignificantlyhigherastheyaresupplyingOEMswithB-samplesandC-samplesforproductionvalidation.

PC&LCVLiDARmarketshares-2021(Inner)vs2022

(Outer)

Others

3%

Livox8%

Innovusion28%

6%

Inner:$44M

Outer:$169M

79%

Valeo24%

Hesai23%

8%

7%

Robosense14%

Innovusion,Valeo,Hesai,

and

RoboSenseareleadingtheLiDARmarketforautomotive.

AutomotiveLiDAR2023|Conference||©202314

106carmodelstobe

releasedwithLiDARbyChineseOEMsin2023orsoonafter.

MARKETVIEW

LiDARmarketdynamics

6+carmodels*withLiDARtobereleased

byEUOEMsin2023

orsoonafter.

3+carmodels*with

LiDARtobereleased

byUSOEMsin2023or

soonafter.

lnnoFuson

LUMINAR

ontinental⃞

INNVIZ

DENSO

4+carmodels*with

LiDARtobereleased

byJapaneseand

KoreanOEMsin

2023orsoonafter.

*FortheseOEMs,designwinsaremostlyrelatedtoacarplatformratherthanadedicatedmodel.

7

RestoftheworldLiDARASP:~$800-$1,000

ChineseLiDARASP:~$600-$800

Therearetwodistinct

LiDAR

markets:

Chinaandtherestofthe

world(RoW).

AutomotiveLiDAR2023|Conference||©202315

MARKETVIEW

OverviewofPC&LCVandrobotaximarkets

TheLiDAR

marketforPC&LCVand

robotaxisis

expectedtoreach$4.5Bin2028witha55%CAGR

from2023.

2028

PC&LCVLiDARRobotaxiLiDAR

$3,920M

$557M

CAGR:25%

CAGR:69%

2022

$4,477M

CAGR22-28:55%

$147M

$169M

$317M

AutomotiveLiDAR2023|Conference||©202316

PARTNERSHIPSANDSUPPLYCHAIN

Supplychainforpassengercars:LiDARshipmentsin2022

~225,000LiDARswereshippedinpassengercarsin2022

Thebigfour

are

composedofInnovusion,Valeo,Hesai,and

RoboSense.

InnoFusion

25%

25%

24%

Lastyear,wewereexpectingthatValeoleadershipin2022.Theyareranked2nd,butvolumewithInnovusionisnotsignificant.

12%

wouldkeepits二

thedifferencein10%

1%l1%l 1%

ThankstoitspartnershipwithNio,withLiDARmountedinseries,Innovusionputmorethan50,000unitsontheroadin2022.

ontinental⃞

others

Hesaiisdirectlyenteringthemarketin3rdpositionthankstopartnershipswithlocalOEMs.

<1%

RoboSenseisalsoasignificantplayer,with12%ofthemarketin2022.

Livox’smarketsharewas10%in2022,thankstotheXPengP5.ThefuturemaynotbebrightasXPengchoseRoboSenseforitsfollowingcarmodels.

AutomotiveLiDAR2023|Conference||©202317

PARTNERSHIPSANDSUPPLYCHAIN

~632,000LiDARsareexpectedtobeshippedinpassengercarsin2023

In2023,themarketis

expectedtoincreasebyafactorof2.7.Thebigfourarestillthe

samebutinadifferent

order.Hesaicouldleadthemarket.

InnoFusion

Supplychainforpassengercars:Whatcanweexpectfor2023?

41%

29%

12%

10%

4%

1%1%

1%<1%

In2023,weexpectabigpushbythetwoleadingChineseLiDARmanufacturers,HesaiandRobosense,thathavesignedpartnershipswithmanyOEMsonmultipleplatforms.Thetwocompaniescouldship68%ofthetotalnumberofLiDARsforpassengercars.

InnovusionhasonlypartneredwithNio,sovolumescannotgrowasrapidlyastheleadingplayers.

INNVIZ

ValeowillexpectnewshipmentstoKiaandHyundai,butitshouldbelimitedtohigh-endcarsand,therefore,inlimitedvolumes.

Others

CeptoncouldmakeitsentrywithGMandInnovizwithBMW;after

severaldelays,theycouldseeinitialvolumes.

Luminar,amongothers,isstillnotshippinginhighvolumes,astheVolvoEX90hasbeendelayeduntil2024.

AutomotiveLiDAR2023|Conference||©202318

PARTNERSHIPSANDSUPPLYCHAIN

Cumulatedvolumes:adifferentvisionofthemarket

Volume(units)

CumulatedLiDARvolumesforautomotive,2018to2022

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

-

•WhenlookingatcumulatedLiDARvolume,thereisacleardifferencebetweenthefirstplayer,Valeo,andtheothers.ValeoisbenefitingfrompartnershipswithAudi,Honda,andMercedes.

•Since2018,Valeohasshippedcloseto200,000LiDARunits,amixtureofgenerations1and2oftheScala.

•Followersarenewcomers,astheyhaveonlybeenshippingsince2021,atbest.Inthiscategory,Innovusion,Hesai,RoboSense,andLivoxhaveshippedbetween27,000and57,000LiDAR.

RegardingcumulatedLiDAR

volumes,

Valeoisstill,byfar,theleader.

AutomotiveLiDAR2023|Conference||©202319

PARTNERSHIPSANDSUPPLYCHAIN

ContinentalislicensingthetechnologyfromAEye.A

SOPisscheduledfor2024.

Recentpartnershipsforpassengercars

ontinental⃞

BarajapartneredwithVeoneer.AnSOPisscheduledfor

2024/2025.

Multiplepartnershipswithheadlampmanufacturers

havebeenmaderecently.Thesemayberelatedto

integrationinheadlampsbutalsotomanufacturing

LiDARsensors.LiDARmanufacturerscouldbelooking

forpartnersthathavemasteredautomotive-grade

products.

LUMOTIVE

Theroofisanattractivepositionfordetecting

objectsatalongdistancewithoutbeingblinded

byothercars.RoofsupplierWebastoGroupSEis

developinganewsolutionstointegrateLiDAR

andpossiblyothersensorsinthisposition.

I-)ebasto

Source:WebastoGroupSE

Apositionontheroofis

promising,asseeninmany

newcar

releases.

AutomotiveLiDAR2023|Conference||©202320

TECHNOLOGYTRENDS

Numberofsensorscomparison(camera,radar,LiDAR)

Theraceforadvancedeyes-offapplications

39

24

19

18

13

MercedesS-ClassWaymo4thGenXPeng-G9BYD-YangWangU8Waymo5thGen

•Oneofthefirstcarswitheyes-offfunctionalitywastheS-Class,releasedin2021with13sensorsembedded.

•TheXPengG9,producedin2022,with19sensors,wasthefirstunmodifiedEVcarqualifiedforautonomousrobotaxitesting.

•ThiscarembedsmoresensorsthantheWaymo4thGencarsthatwererobotaxisinoperationintheUS.

•ThecarhasreceiveditstestingpermitfromtheGuangzhouMunicipality.

•TheBYDYangWangU8,scheduledin2023,willembedevenmoresensors,24intotal.ThisshowshowfastChineseOEMsaremovingtowardautonomousdriving.

AutomotiveLiDAR2023|Conference||©202321

TheXPengG9isthefirst

unmodifiedcartobe

qualifiedforautonomousrobotaxi

testing.

TECHNOLOGYTRENDS

LiDAR

OEMsManufacturers

Playersegmentation

Mechanical

HybridSolid-State

FullySolid-State

360°mechanicalspinning

1DScan

2DScan

Optical

(someofthese

systemsmayneeda

mechanical

scanningsystem)

Flash

Individuallyaddressable

Polygonmirror

Other

MEMS

Polygon+Galvo

Prisms

经surestar

INNVIZ

LUMINARInnoFuson

Liowave

cruise

vEY

EAamoroa

Barajahasan

advanced

development

agreementwith

anOEM

田TOYOTA

6Gacoror

TheInnovThissho

izTwomayabandouldberelatedtovi

nMEMStechnologybrationissues,pro

anduseapolyductionandcalib

gonmirrorinstead.rationchallenges.

AutomotiveLiDAR2023|Conference||©202322

AndmoreAndmore

TECHNOLOGYTRENDS

Oncea

sufficientlylongrangeisachieved,

LiDAR

manufacturerswillfocuson

sensorpricereduction.

•Inthecurrentdevelopment

roadmap,LiDARmanufacturersaremainlyfocusingonreachingthelongestrangerequiredbyOEMs,around200-250mforhighwaydriving.

•ThefirstgenerationsofLiDARhaveastablepriceasmoreperformant

componentsareembedded.

•Oncetherangeandresolutionneedsareachieved,LiDARmanufacturerswillbeabletofocusonpricereductionofthe

Gen2

Gen32024

Price$1,000

AutomotiveLiDARdevelopmentroadmap

2021

2018

Gen1

Scala1

Scala2

InnoFusion

Focusonrangeandresolution

Scala3Gen4

Gen52025

Focusonpriceandvolume

250m

Range&resolution

SomenewplayerslikeHesaiorInnovusion,aredirectlyenteringthemarketwithaGen2LiDAR.Withanaggressiveproductdevelopment,theirnextgenerationcouldjumponegenerationandseeastrongpricereduction.

sensor.

AutomotiveLiDAR2023|Conference||©202323

TECHNOLOGYTRENDS

Source:RoboSense

Thetypicalpositionofshort-rangeLiDARwillbeonthesideofthecar,andthefendercouldbeusedbymanyOEMs.ThisisalreadythecaseforLexuswiththeContinentalFlashLiDAR.Thegoalistodetectsmallobjectsclosetothecar.

Intermsofdrivingfunctionality,citydrivingisacleartargetwithapplicationslikeovertaking,parking,andunprotectedleftturns,amongothers.

ButsuchausecasemightbetooearlytoimplementforOEMs,andthepenetrationrateofthisLiDARisexpectedtoremainlowforthenextfewyears.

ThetypicalarchitectureoftheseLiDARswillbethecombinationofaVCSELarraywithaSPADarray.

TherecentreleaseoftheSonySPAD(IMX459),witharesolutionofaround100,000pixels,isundoubtedlyoneoftheenablersofthecurrentflashLiDARreleasedbyHesaiandRoboSense.

Incombinationwiththat,VCSELarraysusingmulti-junctiontechnology,whereahigheroutputpowerwithinthesamesurfacecanbeobtained,isanotherenablerofflashLiDAR.

Source:Hesai

PassengerLiDARcomparisonchart–Short-range

Model

Channels#

Range(m)(reflectivity)

Points

frequency(pts/sec)

FOV(°):HxVResolution(°):

HxV

Power(W)

Dimensions

(W-D-H)

Availability

HFL110v

FT120

RS-LiDAR-E1

Flash

Flash

Flash

50m

30m(10%)

30m(10%)

102,400

192,000

276,480(10Hz)

120x30

100x75

120x90

0.9x0.9

0.6x0.6

0.6x0.6

15

-

15

120x100x65

-

95x46x70

Available

Q3-2023

Q3-2023

AutomotiveLiDAR2023|Conference||©202324

TECHNOLOGYTRENDS

Conclusions–Imagingtechnologyandwavelength

Inthenext

tenyears,oneofthemain

technologyevolutionsisexpectedontheimagingside.

Imagingtechnology-2033

Optical

Imagingtechnology-2023FlashOptical

2%0%

•

4%

Inthenexttenyears,themainchangescouldberelatedtoimagingtechnology.

•

MEMS30%

Flash33%

Hybrid

Solid-State

56%

Hybrid

Solid-

State

68%

Since2018,thevastmajorityofLiDARshavebeenmechanical-basedduetotheirrelativelylowcostandbecausetheyprovidegood-enoughperformance.

MEMS

•

7%

Wavelengthchoice-2033

Wavelengthchoice-2023

SWIR16%

NIR84%

SWIR14%

NIR86%

Flashimagingtechnologycouldrapidlyincreasetoenablefullysolid-stateLiDARwithahighsemiconductorintegrationandcontributetoafastdecreaseofMEMStechnology.

•

Inthelongterm,technologicalchoiceswillhavetobemadetobealignedwithmass

production,lowcost,andhighperformance.Inthiscontext,webelievethatflashand

NIRwavelengthcouldbedominanttechnologies.

Thewavelengthchoiceisnotexp