麦肯锡-医院估值财务模型-20120726

肿瘤科收入,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

,,,,,,,,,,,,Unit,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024,2025,2026,,2009-2011,2011-2016,2016-2021,,Rationale

人均消费增长率,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,6%,10%,10%,6%,6%,6%,6%,6%,6%,6%,4%,4%,4%,4%,4%,,,,,,与其他科室住院平均费用增长一致

,肿瘤科,,,,,,,,,,,RMB,,,,"67,007,004","76,466,331","91,591,461","100,750,607","108,072,986","157,841,529","187,340,992","219,830,261","256,657,649","286,769,000","319,569,745","332,352,535","345,646,636","359,472,502","373,851,402","388,805,458",,,,,,

,,肿瘤外科,,,,,,,,,,RMB,,,,"8,000,000","8,480,000","9,328,000","10,260,800","13,318,100","18,381,752","22,290,448","25,651,941","29,424,139","32,303,502","35,422,460","36,839,359","38,312,933","39,845,450","41,439,268","43,096,839",,,,,,

,,,住院收入,,,,,,,,,RMB,,,,"6,500,000","6,890,000","7,579,000","8,336,900","10,820,956","14,337,767","16,717,836","18,526,402","20,491,811","21,721,320","23,024,599","23,945,583","24,903,406","25,899,543","26,935,524","28,012,945",,,,,,2011年数据为访谈外科主任得到

,,,,住院平均费用,,,,,,,,RMB,,,,"5,815","6,164","6,780","7,458","7,906","8,380","8,883","9,416","9,981","10,580","11,214","11,663","12,130","12,615","13,119","13,644",,,,,,

,,,,住院人数,,,,,,,,人,,,,"1,118","1,118","1,118","1,118","1,369","1,711","1,882","1,968","2,053","2,053","2,053","2,053","2,053","2,053","2,053","2,053",,,,,,

,,,,,平均住院日,,,,,,,天,,,,16,16.0,16.0,16.0,16.0,16.0,16.0,16.0,16.0,16.0,16.0,16.0,16.0,16.0,16.0,16.0,,,,,,2011年数据为访谈外科主任得到

,,,,,病床利用率,,,,,,,%,,,,100%,100%,100%,100%,80%,100%,110%,115%,120%,120%,120%,120%,120%,120%,120%,120%,,,,,,2011年数据为访谈外科主任得到，肿瘤科实力在青山区最强，并且由于从偏僻地区搬到市中心，就诊人数将大大增加

,,,,,平均开放病床数,,,,,,,个,,,,49,49,49,49,75,75,75,75,75,75,75,75,75,75,75,75,,,,,,2011年数据为访谈外科主任得到

,,,门诊收入,,,,,,,,,RMB,,,,"1,500,000","1,590,000","1,749,000","1,923,900","2,497,144","4,043,985","5,572,612","7,125,539","8,932,328","10,582,182","12,397,861","12,893,776","13,409,527","13,945,908","14,503,744","15,083,894",,,,,,2011年数据为访谈外科主任得到

,,,,门诊平均费用,,,,,,,,RMB,,,,447,474,522,574,608,645,683,724,768,814,863,897,933,970,"1,009","1,050",,,,,,

,,,,门诊人次数,,,,,,,,人,,,,"3,353","3,353","3,353","3,353","4,106","6,273","8,155","9,838","11,634","13,003","14,372","14,372","14,372","14,372","14,372","14,372",,,,,,

,,,,,门诊与住院人次比例,,,,,,,%,,,,3.0,3.0,3.0,3.0,3.0,3.7,4.3,5.0,5.7,6.3,7.0,7.0,7.0,7.0,7.0,7.0,,,,,,省肿瘤医院是7.5/1

,,肿瘤内科,,,,,,,,,,RMB,,,,"59,007,004","67,986,331","82,263,461","90,489,807","94,754,887","139,459,777","165,050,544","194,178,320","227,233,510","254,465,498","284,147,285","295,513,176","307,333,703","319,627,051","332,412,133","345,708,619",,,,,,

,,,住院收入,,,,,,,,,RMB,,,,"43,751,457","50,409,287","60,995,238","67,094,762","70,257,157","96,376,288","106,802,450","118,132,797","130,438,297","138,264,594","146,560,470","152,422,889","158,519,804","164,860,597","171,455,021","178,313,221",,,,,,

,,,,住院平均费用,,,,,,,,RMB,,,,"9,920","10,515","11,567","12,723","13,487","14,296","15,153","16,063","17,026","18,048","19,131","19,896","20,692","21,520","22,380","23,276",,,,,,

,,,,住院人数,,,,,,,,人,,,,"4,411","4,794","5,273","5,273","5,209","6,742","7,048","7,354","7,661","7,661","7,661","7,661","7,661","7,661","7,661","7,661",,,,,,

,,,,,平均住院日,,,,,,,天,,,,13.4,13.4,13.4,13.4,13.4,13.4,13.4,13.4,13.4,13.4,13.4,13.4,13.4,13.4,13.4,13.4,,,,,,访谈；还有进一步下降的空间

,,,,,病床利用率,,,,,,,%,,,,92%,100%,110%,110%,85%,110%,115%,120%,125%,125%,125%,125%,125%,125%,125%,125%,,,,,,肿瘤科实力在青山区最强，并且由于从偏僻地区搬到市中心，就诊人数将大大增加

,,,,,平均开放病床数,,,,,,,个,,,,176,176,176,176,225,225,225,225,225,225,225,225,225,225,225,225,,,,,,

,,,门诊收入,,,,,,,,,RMB,,,,"15,255,547","17,577,044","21,268,223","23,395,045","24,497,730","43,083,489","58,248,094","76,045,523","96,795,213","116,200,904","137,586,815","143,090,287","148,813,899","154,766,455","160,957,113","167,395,397",,,,,,

,,,,门诊平均费用,,,,,,,,RMB,,,,"1,330","1,410","1,551","1,706","1,809","1,917","2,032","2,154","2,283","2,420","2,566","2,668","2,775","2,886","3,001","3,122",,,,,,

,,,,门诊人次数,,,,,,,,人,,,,"11,467","12,464","13,711","13,711","13,544","22,472","28,662","35,301","42,390","48,008","53,626","53,626","53,626","53,626","53,626","53,626",,,,,,

,,,,,门诊与住院人次比例,,,,,,,%,,,,2.6,2.6,2.6,2.6,2.6,3.3,4.1,4.8,5.5,6.3,7,7,7,7,7,7,,,,,,省肿瘤医院是7.5/1

,肿瘤外科收入占比,,,,,,,,,,,%,,,,12%,11%,10%,10%,12%,12%,12%,12%,11%,11%,11%,11%,11%,11%,11%,11%,,,,,,

,肿瘤内科收入占比,,,,,,,,,,,%,,,,88%,89%,90%,90%,88%,88%,88%,88%,89%,89%,89%,89%,89%,89%,89%,89%,,,,,,

,肿瘤科总床位数,,,,,,,,,,,个,,,,225,225,225,225,300,300,300,300,300,300,300,300,300,300,300,300,,,,,,

,肿瘤科总收入/床位数,,,,,,,,,,,个,,,,"297,809","339,850","407,073","447,780","360,243","526,138","624,470","732,768","855,525","955,897","1,065,232","1,107,842","1,152,155","1,198,242","1,246,171","1,296,018",,,,,,

,二院肿瘤科市场份额,,,,,,,,,,,%,,,,19%,19%,19%,18%,17%,22%,25%,27%,29%,31%,32%,32%,32%,32%,32%,32%,,,,,,二院肿瘤科在青山区肿瘤治疗市场的占比

,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2012,2016,2021,2026,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

,,,,,,,,,,,,,肿瘤外科,住院,"1,118"