全球水资源风险快照 -Global Water Risk Snapshot Produced by the Roland Berger Water Management Team

GlobalWaterRiskSnapshot

ProducedbytheRolandBergerWaterManagementTeam

Coverpiyaset/iStock

June2024

2GlobalWaterRiskSnapshot

ManagementSummary

TheEarth'swatercycleisadelicatebalancethatensureswaterisdistributedacrossvariousecosystems.Butoverconsumption,pollution,andclimatechangearedisruptingthatbalance-increasingwater-relatedrisksaroundtheworld.Waterrisktypicallyoccurswhenthedemandforwaterexceedssupply,whenpoorwaterqualityrestrictsitsuse,orduringextremeweatherevents.Itcantakemanyformsbuttypicallymanifestsasthedepletionofwatersources,floodingdamage,orthedegradationofwaterresourcesoraquaticenvironments.

Waterriskcanhaveadirectimpactoncommunities,suchaswhencitiesface'DayZero'scenariosinwhichwatersuppliescomeclosetodepletion.Butwaterisalsoastrategicbusinessrisk.Waterisessentialacrossmanyindustries,fromagriculturetodatacenters,servingasadirectandindirectinputthatensuresbusinessproductivity.Shortagesordeclinesinwaterqualityhavesignificanteconomicconsequences,whilefloodsdestroybillionsworthofassetseachyear.Companiesoperatingin

water-scarceregionsfacerisingcostsanddecreasedcompetitiveness.

Aglobalissuefeltatalocallevel

Waterriskisaglobalissue,butitmanifestsinhyper-localizedways.Understandingspecificrisksrequiresdeepanalysis–down

tothewaterbasinlevel.TheGlobalWaterRiskSnapshotisdesignedtocallbroaderattentiontotheincreasingthreatofwater-relatedrisksaroundtheworld.Itprovidesahigh-levelindicationofhowwaterrisksimpactdifferentpartsoftheworldtoday–

andwheretheycouldintensifyinthefuture.Therearemanyfactorstoconsiderwhenassessingwaterrisk,fromphysicalrisks,

suchaswaterscarcity,risksthatareimpactedbyregulatoryinitiativesandreputationalrisksinfluencedbypublicawarenessandconflict.TheGlobalWaterRiskSnapshotfocusesprimarilyonphysicalrisksin10differentcountries,providingadditionalcontextaroundlocalregulatoryorreputationalfactors,asrelevant.

Addressingwater-relatedriskrequiressustainablemanagementpractices,technologicalinnovations,andcollaborativeeffortstoensuretheequitableandefficientuseoftheplanet'smostvitalresource.RolandBergerisworkingcloselywith

businesses,utilities,andgovernmentorganizationstodevelopcomprehensivewaterstrategiestoincreasewaterresilienceandhelpmakeameaningfulcontributiontoglobalwatersecurity.

3GlobalWaterRiskSnapshot

Understandingkeywaterriskfactors

Physicalwaterrisksassessnatural&human-inducedconditionsinriverbasins,thestatusofwaterecosystems,andsuitabilityforspecificuses

Understoodasthemosttangibleformofwaterrisk,physicalwaterriskfactorsprimarilyincludewaterscarcity,increasedflooding,and/orreducedwaterquality.

Forthepurposesofthisoverview,ourteamutilizedpubliclyavailabledatafrommultiplesourcesincludingtheWWFWaterRiskFilter,WorldResourcesInstituteAqueductFloods,andlocalassessments.

Toassesswaterscarcity,theWWFWaterRiskFiltercompareswaterdemandagainstwateravailabilityandconsidershowhumanactivitycouldworsentheimpactofnaturalfactors,suchasaridityanddrought.

Aqueduct'sfloodingdataconsidershistoricalfloodingpatternstrackedsince1985,withprojectionsfromglobalclimateandhydrologicalmodels.

TheWWF'swaterqualityassessmentsconcentrateonparametersthatdirectlyandindirectlyimpactwatersecurityandfreshwaterbiodiversity,aligningwiththeUNSustainableDevelopmentGoal(SDG)6.3.2,includingbiologicaloxygendemand(BOD),electricalconductivity(salinityandpH),andnutrientloading(nitrogen,phosphorus).

Whilein-depthanalysisisrequiredtodevelopafullpictureofphysicalwaterrisks,thisdatacanhelpillustrateregionsinwhichmoredrasticactionmayberequiredtoimprovewaterresilience.

Physicalrisksincludethethreatofwaterscarcity,floodingandreducedwaterquality

Flooding

Waterscarcity

·Floodriskcategoryconsiders:

-Historicalfloodpatternssince1985

-Futuretrends,assessedusing

projectionsfromglobalclimateandhydrologicalmodels

·Occursduetoheavyrainfall,rapid

snowmelt,dams/leveesbreak,orstormsurge

·Waterscarcityrisksintegratesfourglobaldatasets:

-WaterDepletion

-BaselineWaterStress

-BlueWaterScarcity

-AvailableWaterRemaining(AWARE)

Physicalwaterrisk

·Compareswateruseordemandtoavailablewaterineacharea

Waterquality

·Keyindicatorsofwaterqualityinclude:

-Biologicaloxygendemand(BOD)

-Electricalconductivity(salinityandpH)

-Nutrientloading(nitrogen,phosphorus)

·Considersdirectandindirectimpactsonwatersecurityandfreshwaterbiodiversity,aligningwiththeSustainableDevelopmentGoal6.3.2.

Source:WWFWaterRiskFilter,WorldResourcesInstituteAqueductFloods

4GlobalWaterRiskSnapshot

Snapshotofglobalwaterrisk

Waterscarcityimpactseverycontinentbutismostdirectlyfeltinregionswitharidclimates

Lookingspecificallyatwaterscarcityrisksfromaglobalperspective,theregionsmostimpactedincludetheMiddleEast,NorthAfrica,Sub-SaharanAfrica,CentralAsia,andpartsofSouthAsia.However,high-risklevelsareexperiencedineverymajorregionoftheworld.TheMiddleEastandNorthAfricaregionfacesseverewaterscarcityduetoitsaridclimate,limitedfreshwaterresources,andhighpopulationgrowth.CountriessuchasSaudiArabia,UnitedArabEmiratesandEgyptrelyheavilyondesalinationplantsandundergroundwatersourcestomeettheirwaterdemands.CentralAsia,includingcountriessuchasUzbekistan,Turkmenistan,andKazakhstan,faceswaterscarcityduetothearidclimate,overuseofwaterresourcesforagriculture,andinefficientirrigationpractices.AnotableconsequenceofscarcityistheshrinkingoftheAralSea.InSouthAsia,countriessuchasIndiaandPakistanalsofacewaterscarcity.duetoacombinationoffactors,includingpopulationgrowth,inadequateinfrastructure,andinefficientwatermanagement.TheIndusRiver,avitalwatersourceforbothcountries,isunderstressduetooveruseandclimatechange.Addressingwaterscarcityintheseregionsandonaglobalscalerequiressustainablewatermanagementpractices,investmentininfrastructure,andinternationalcooperation.

Physicalrisks:Agloballookatwaterscarcityrisks

Figure1:Globalwaterscarcityrisk-2020Figure2:Globalwaterscarcityrisk–2050

Source:WWFWaterRiskFilter,Leaflet|PoweredbyEsri|HERE,Garmin,FAO,NOAA,EPA,AAFC,NRCan,Greveetal(2018)Kummuetal(2017)

5GlobalWaterRiskSnapshot

Snapshotofglobalwaterrisk

Heavyrainfall,geographicalfeatures,inadequateinfrastructure,andpopulationdensitycanintensifyfloodingimpacts

Riverineandcoastalfloodingandflashfloodsposethreatstobothurbanandruralareasaroundtheworld.However,someoftheregionsmostimpactedbyfloodrisksincludeSoutheastAsia,SouthAsia,CentralAmerica,partsofAfrica.SoutheastAsia,particularlycountriessuchasIndonesia,Vietnam,andThailand,faceshighvulnerabilitytofloodingduetofactorssuchasmonsoonrains,low-lyingtopography,anddenselypopulatedriverdeltas.InSouthAsia,countriessuchasIndia,Nepal,BangladeshandPakistanalsoexperiencefrequentfloodingduetoheavymonsoonrains,aswellasinadequatedrainagesystems,anddeforestation.OverflowsofmajorriverssuchastheGangesandBrahmaputracanresultindevastatingfloods,affectingmillionsofpeopleandcausingsignificantdamagetoinfrastructureandagriculture.CentralAmericaispronetofloodrisksduetoitsgeographicallocationandexposuretotropicalstormsandhurricanes.CountriessuchasHonduras,Nicaragua,andGuatemalafacethedualthreatofheavyrainfallandstormsurges,leadingtoflashfloodsandmudslidesthatcancauseextensivedamagetocommunitiesandinfrastructure.PartsofAfrica,includingcountriessuchasNigeria,Sudan,andMozambique,arealsoimpactedbyfloodingrisks.Factorssuchasirregularrainfallpatterns,poorinfrastructure,andinadequateurbanplanningcontributetothevulnerabilityoftheseregions.

Physicalrisks:Agloballookatfloodrisks

Figure1:Globalfloodrisk-2020Figure2:Globalfloodrisk–2050

Source:WWFWaterRiskFilter,Leaflet|PoweredbyEsri|RJGC,Esri,HERE,Garmin,FAO,NOAA,AAFC,NRCan,Hirabayashietal.(2013)

6GlobalWaterRiskSnapshot

Snapshotofglobalwaterrisk

Severalfactorsarecontributingtothedegradationinthequalityoffreshwaterresourcesaroundtheworld

Worldwide,weseeseveralfactorscontributingtodecliningwaterquality.Agriculturalrunoff,particularlyinareaswithheavyfertilizeruse,rapidurbandevelopment,and.industrialactivitiesallcontributetochemicalandnutrientloadingandincreasedbiologicaloxygendemand(BOD)levels,leadingtoharmfulalgalblooms,oxygendepletion,anddegradationofaquaticecosystems.Waterqualityrisksarefoundaroundtheworld,includinginregionsthatarenotasimpactedbyotherphysicalrisksfactors,suchasscarcityorflooding,aswellasinregionswithrobustwaterlegislationorrelativelymodernwaterinfrastructure.Forinstance,theEuropeanEnvironmentAgencyreportsthat60%ofEurope'srivers,lakesandothersurfacewaterbodiesarenotingoodcondition.1Inthedevelopingworld,untreatedsewageorinadequatewastewatertreatmentsystemsalsocontributetothecontaminationofriversandgroundwatersourcesandcanleadtowaterbornediseasesandenvironmentaldegradation.

Physicalrisks:Agloballookatwaterqualityrisks

Figure1:Globalwaterqualityrisk-2020Figure2:Globalwaterqualityrisk–2050

1EuropeanEnvironmentAgency,EcologicalstatusofsurfacewatersinEurope,2021

Source:WWFWaterRiskFilter,Leaflet|PoweredbyEsri|RJGC,Esri,HERE,Garmin,FAO,NOAA,EPA,AAFC,NRCan,Xie&Ringler(2017)

7GlobalWaterRiskSnapshot

Countryinsights-USA

Waterscarcityislikelytoworsenandexpandintoregionsexperiencingsignificantpopulationgrowthandincreasedindustrialandagriculturalactivity

Waterscarcityriskanalysis

SouthernCaliforniaandaridpartsoftheSouthwestUSarecurrentlyfacingsignificantwaterscarcityissuesduetorisingtemperatures,prolongeddroughts,andpopulationgrowth.(Figure1).Lookingaheadto2050,waterscarcityisexpectedtoworseninalreadyimpactedareaswhilealsoexpandingdeeperintocentralandsouthernregions,includingpartsofColorado,Nebraska,andTexas(Figure2).LargecitiesintheSouthandSouthwestaresomeofthecountry'sfastestgrowingareas.StatessuchasArizona,NewMexico,andTexasarealsohometomajormanufacturingplantsforthelikesofLucidMotors,Intel,andTesla,whileCalifornia,Nebraska,andTexasareamongthebiggestcentersofagriculturalproduction.Wateruseforagricultureandmanufacturingcoupledwithgrowingcitiesmayfurtherstrainwaterresourcesandcouldpotentiallyexacerbatethevulnerabilityoftheseareastowaterriskovertime.Severalrecentmeasureshavebeenimplementednationwidetoreducewater-relatedrisks.TheBipartisanInfrastructureLawallocatesfundsforinfrastructureupdatesandriskmitigationactivitiesin17westernstatesimpactedbydecliningwaterlevelsintheColoradoRiver.

USA:Waterscarcityrisk(Current&Predicted)

Figure1:Waterscarcityrisk–2020Figure2:Waterscarcityrisk–Predicted2050

Source:WWFWaterRiskFilter,Leaflet|PoweredbyEsri|HERE,Garmin,FAO,NOAA,EPA,AAFC,NRCan,Greveetal(2018)Kummuetal(2017)

8GlobalWaterRiskSnapshot

Countryinsights-USA

TheeasternUSexperiencesfrequentcoastalandurbanfloodingandriveroverflows,drivingtheneedforinvestmentinfloodprotectioninfrastructure

Floodriskanalysis

FloodingisacostlydisasterintheUnitedStates,withmorethanUSD31billioninstructuraldamagetocommercialbuildingsandhomesaloneeachyear1.Coastalareasaresusceptibletostormsurgefloodingfromhurricanesandtropicalstorms,whileinlandregionscanexperienceriverinefloodingcausedbyheavyrainfallorsnowmelt.TheUSexperiencedfourmajorfloodeventsin2023:oneinCalifornia,twoeventsintheNortheast,andoneinFloridabutoverall,theMississippiRiveranditstributariesarepronetofloodingduetotheirextensivedrainagebasins(Figure1).Projectionsfor2050showfloodriskintensifying,particularlyaroundtheMissouriandMississippiRivers(Figure2).AqueductFloodsestimatesannualurbandamagesfromflooding(damagetoresidential,commercial,andindustrialbuildings)willcostthenationUSD94billionaloneby2050.About60%ofthedamagesby2050willbecausedbycoastalflooding.Typically,citieshaveutilized'gray'infrastructuresuchaslevees,dikes,floodwalls,dams,reservoirs,andseawallstomitigatefloodingrisks.Increasingly,however,citiesarealsoadopting'green'infrastructuremeasures,alsoknownasnature-basedsolutions,suchaswetlands,seagrassbeds,oysterreefs,riparianbuffers,mangroves,andlivingshorelinestohelpmanagewaterflows.InApril,theUSgovernmentannouncedfundingofuptoUSD295millionforfloodresilienceprojectsin16statesaspartoftheBipartisanInfrastructureLaw.

USA:Floodrisk(Current&Predicted)

Figure1:Floodrisk–2020Figure2:Floodrisk–Predicted2050

1Source:JointEconomicCommitteeReportonEconomicCostofFlooding,June2024

/public/_cache/files/bc171a7e-2829-462d-8193-7b7c4d59a6e3/jec-report-on-economic-cost-of-flooding.pdf

Source:WWFWaterRiskFilter,Leaflet|PoweredbyEsri|RJGC,Esri,HERE,Garmin,FAO,NOAA,AAFC,NRCan,Hirabayashietal.(2013)

9GlobalWaterRiskSnapshot

Countryinsights-Mexico

NorthernandcentralpartsofMexicofeelthebruntofthecountry'swaterscarcitywoes

Waterscarcityriskanalysis

Mexico'swaterscarcitywoesareprimarilycausedbyacombinationofdroughtandgroundwaterover-abstraction.Morethan100municipalitiesarealreadydeemedhighlyvulnerabletodroughtandthecountryhasfacedseveralsevereandprolongeddrought,upto90%ofitsterritory.1Groundwaterdepletionisdrivenbytheagriculturalsector,whichisexpectedtoaccountforover75%ofannualwithdrawalsby2050.2Around115ofMexico's650+aquifersaredeemedoverexploited,and17facesalineintrusion.3Pooraccesstowaterresourcesisfurtherexacerbatedbyagrowingpopulation,highwaterleakagerates,reducedrainfallanddamsbecominginoperableduetolowwaterlevelsordamage.Waterscarcityissettointensify,impactingseveralmajoreconomichubs,includingareasaroundMexicoCity,Monterrey,CiudadJuarez,Tijuana,Queretaro,andSanLuisPotosi(Figure2).Thesehubsarehometoindustryparksservingavarietyofsectorsincludingautomotive,tradeandtransportation,foodandbeverage,andmanufacturingcompanies.MexicoCity,apopulationofover22millionpeople,isthreatenedtoreach"dayzero"conditions,whereinwatersystemsfalltosuchlowlevelstheycannotsupportcommunitywaterneeds,by2028.TheMexicangovernmentisaddressingitswatercrisisbyinvestingapproximatelyUSD5.4billionin15prioritywaterprojects.Thisinvolveslarge-scaleconstructionofdams,aqueducts,andirrigationdistricts.

Mexico:Waterscarcityrisk(Current&Predicted)

Figure1:Waterscarcityrisk–2020Figure2:Waterscarcityrisk–Predicted2050

1,2,3Source:MexicoGovernmentPNH2020-2024

Source:WWFWaterRiskFilter,Leaflet|PoweredbyEsri|HERE,Garmin,FAO,NOAA,EPA,AAFC,NRCan,Greveetal(2018)Kummuetal(2017)

10GlobalWaterRiskSnapshot

Countryinsights-Mexico

PoorwaterqualityplaguesMexiconationwidefromuntreatedmunicipalandindustrialwastewaterdischarge

Waterqualityanalysis

Waterpollution,primarilyresultingfromuntreatedmunicipalwastewater,industrialdischarges,andagrochemicalsimpactsmuchofMexico'ssurfacewaters(Figure1).Wastewatertreatmentremainsinefficient-approximately30%ofcollectedmunicipalwastewaterisleftuntreatedannually.Nearly25%ofMexico'swastewatertreatmentplants(819total)wereabandonedornon-operatingasof2018.1Moreover,wastewatercollectionsystemsaredeterioratedandleaky,contributingtogroundwaterpollution.Industrialwastewaterdischargeisanotherconcern,contributingupto340%morepollutionthanthatgeneratedbymunicipalities.2Agriculturalrunoffcontainsnitrogenandphosphoruswhileminingandsteelindustriescontributetothereleaseoftoxicheavymetals.Withwaterqualityriskspredictedtoworsen,thecountryhasachallengingroadahead.TheMexicangovernmentoperatesover1,700monitoringsitestotracksurfacewaterqualitynationwide.In2022,nearly30%ofthesiteswereratedwaterqualitynon-compliant.

Mexico:Waterqualityrisk(Current&Predicted)

Figure1:Waterqualityrisk–2020Figure2:Waterqualityrisk–Predicted2050

1,2Source:MexicoGovernmentPNH2020-2024

Source:WWFWaterRiskFilter,Leaflet|PoweredbyEsri|RJGC,Esri,HERE,Garmin,FAO,NOAA,EPA,AAFC,NRCan,Xie&Ringler(2017)

11GlobalWaterRiskSnapshot

Countryinsights-UK

FloodriskisalreadyhighacrossmuchoftheUKandconditionscouldworsenoverthecomingdecades

Floodriskanalysis

Floodsresultingfromrecord-breakingrainfallinthewinterof2023andStormHenkinJanuary2024weresevere,particularlyacrosstheEnglishMidlands.Further,betweenOctober2022andMarch2024,Englandhaditswettest18monthssinceMetOfficerecordsbeganin1836.1MostofEnglandisexposedtomedium-to-highfloodrisk,andallofWalesismedium-highrisk(Figure1).

By2050,coastalandriverinefloodingisexpectedtoworsen,withAqueductFloodsestimatingcostsinannualurbandamageswillbeUSD6.2billion.CoastalfloodingisthedominanttypeoffloodriskfacedbytheUK,andwillcause90%ofthedamagecostsin2050.Thehighest-riskfloodareaswillbesurroundingLondon,SouthwestEngland(e.g.,Cornwall),SouthWales,andtheeasterncoastofNorthernIreland.

Thereareseveralclustersofindustrialandmanufacturingplantsbasedinthehighestfloodriskregions:includingSoutheastEngland(London),theMidlandsandNorthernEngland(Manchester,Sheffield,Leeds)andSouthWales(Cardiff).Theseindustrialclustersaremostlyretailandmanufacturingsectors,withfloodspotentiallythreateningoperations.

RecentmeasurestoaddressfloodriskincludeupdatestotheUK'sFloodandWaterManagementAct2010.Theseaimtoimprovecontroloverfloodingandwastewaterdischarges,primarilythroughImplementingimprovedstormwatermanagementinfrastructure.

UK:Floodrisk(Current&Predicted)

Figure1:Floodrisk–2020Figure2:Floodrisk–Predicted2050

1Source:UKEnvironmentAgency,"NationalDroughtGroupmeetsafterrecordwetOctobertoMarch"

Source:WWFWaterRiskFilter,Leaflet|PoweredbyEsri|RJGC,Esri,HERE,Garmin,FAO,NOAA,AAFC,NRCan,Hirabayashietal.(2013)

12GlobalWaterRiskSnapshot

Countryinsights-UK

EnglandandeasternIrelandareafflictedbypoorwaterquality,largelyduetoagriculturalrunoffandcombinedseweroverflows

Waterqualityriskanalysis

Waterqualityisverypoor,particularlyintheSoutheast.In2020,thecountryrankedlastonTheEuropeanEnvironmentAgencybathingwaterqualityassessment,whichtestsformicrobialcontaminationaswellascyanobacteria(algaebloom).

MostoftheUK'swaterqualityproblemsstemfromthreeprimarypollutionsources;fertilizersandpesticidesfromagriculture(~40%),untreatedsewagereleasedbywatercompanies(~35%),andrun-offfromroadsandtowns(~18%).1

TheproblemofuntreatedsewageleakageisadirectconsequenceoftheUK'sageingwastewaternetwork,withsomepipesdatingbackmorethan150years.Antiquatedinfrastructure,coupledwiththeprevalenceofcombinedsewersystems,leadstosewageoverflowsduringperiodsofheavyrainandcontaminateswaterways.

By2050,waterqualityisexpectedtoworsen.TheEnvironmentAct2021,whichrequireswastewatercompaniesandutilitiestocontinuouslymonitorwaterqualityinriversupstreamanddownstreamofstormoverflows,hasbeenamended,allowingcompaniestodelayimprovingspillagefrom2035to2050.

Additionally,theUKchosetooptoutofEuropeanEnvironmentAgency(EEA)membershippost-Brexit,limitingoversightbytherestofEuropeandpotentiallyreducingtheincentiveforaction.

UK:Waterqualityrisk(Current&Predicted)

Figure1:Waterqualityrisk–2020Figure2:Waterqualityrisk–Predicted2050

1

Source:UKEnvironmentAgency,WaterandseweragecompaniesinEngland:environmentalperformancereportfor2020,BBC

Source:WWFWaterRiskFilter,Leaflet|PoweredbyEsri|RJGC,Esri,HERE,Garmin,FAO,NOAA,EPA,AAFC,NRCan,Xie&Ringler(2017)

13GlobalWaterRiskSnapshot

Countryinsights-France

WorseningdroughtandrisingtemperaturesimpactFrance,withwatersupplyexpectedtodrop10%by2050

Waterscarcityanalysis

Franceexperiencesmediumwaterscarcity,primarlyinthecentral,westcoast,andsouthwesternregions(Figure1).

Groundwaterlevelsaredeclining,withreservesduringthesummerof2023anestimated60%lowerthanthepreviousyear.Droughtsandhightemperaturesareexpectedtobecomemorefrequentandmoreseveresuchasduringthe2022drought,whichwasthedriestsummerin500years.1

The2022droughtimpactedover2,000municipalities'watersupplies,ofwhich340villagesneededtotruckinwater.ThedroughtalsoimpactedenergyproductionwiththesupplierEDFreducingoutputatnuclearplantsinsomeregionsasrivertemperatureswheretoohightosupportitscoolingsystems.2

By2050,waterscarcityriskisexpectedtoworseninthesameregions,withwaterinavilabilitythreatenedtoincreasefrom30%to40%.Likeinrecentdroughts,Frenchmunicipalitiesmayhavetorestricthouseholdwaterusageandconservewaterforirrigation.

InMarch2023,FrenchPresidentEmmanuelMacronlaunchedanationalWaterPlanwith53measures,includingtargetsforwaterreuseandleakagereduction.

France:Waterscarcityrisk(Current&Predicted)

Figure1:Waterscarcityrisk–2020Figure2:Waterscarcityrisk–Predicted2050

1

2

Source:EuropeanDroughtObservatory,Reuters

Source:TheGuardian

Source:WWFWaterRiskFilter,Leaflet|PoweredbyEsri|HERE,Garmin,FAO,NOAA,EPA,AAFC,NRCan,Greveetal(2018)Kummuetal(2017)

14GlobalWaterRiskSnapshot

Countryinsights-France

NorthandNorthwestFrancefaceintensifyingwaterqualityrisk,resultingfromindustrialactivity,agriculturalrunoff,andcombinedseweroverflows

Waterqualityanalysis

WaterqualityriskishighestinNorthern,EasternandNorthwesternFrance,aswellastheareassurroundingmajorcitiessuchasParis,LyonandMarseille(Figure1).

ThecontaminationofFrenchwaterbodiesbypesticideresiduesandotherchemicalcontaminantsisaconcern.AccordingtotheFrenchAgencyforFood,EnvironmentalandOccupationalHealthandSafety(ANSES),anestimatedone-thirdofthepopulationreceivedtapwaterthatfailedtomeetqualitystandardsin2023.

By2050,waterqualityisexpectedtoworsen–evenreaching'extreme'risklevelsaroundParis,likelyduetopollutionresultingfrommanufacturingandrefiningprocesses,aswellascombinedseweroverflows,andrunofffromagriculturalactivity(Figure2).

ThemostimpactedregionsincludemajoragriculturalareasacrossNormandy,Hauts-de-FranceandpartsofBrittanyaswellasmajorindustrialareasincentralFrance.InBrittany,theexcessiveuseoffertilizersandtheimpropermanagementofmanuremayleadtohighlevelsofnitratesandpesticidesinwaterbodies.InNorthernandEasternregions,thereisahighconcentrationofindustrialactivities,whichcanresultindischargethatcontributestowaterpollutioninrivers.Regionswithextensivevineyards,suchasBordeauxandBurgundy,facewaterqualityissuesduetotheuseofpesticidesandfertilizersingrapecultivation.AlthoughtheWaterPlanaimstopreservewaterqualityandrestorethewatercycle,measuresannouncedtodatemaynotbesufficientinensuringhighwaterqualitynationwide.

France:Waterqualityrisk(Current&Predicted)

Figure1:Waterqualityrisk–2020Figure2:Waterqualityrisk–Predicted2050

Source:WWFWaterRiskFilter,Leaflet|PoweredbyEsri|RJGC,Esri,HERE,Garmin,FAO,NOAA,EPA,AAFC,NRCan,Xie&Ringler(2017)

15GlobalWaterRiskSnapshot

Countryinsights-Spain

SouthernSpainfacesseverewaterscarcityduetoprolongeddroughtsandthedepletionofitsreservoirs

Waterscarcityanalysis

SpainhasexperiencedhighwaterscarcityintheSoutheasternregionoverthepastyearsduetoalong-runningdroughtcausedbyrecord-hightemperaturesandastringofheatwaves(Figure1).

InFebruary,reservoirswererunningdry,withcapacitiesinthemost