全球电池回收行业市场前景及投资研究报告-培训课件外文版2024.5格林美

INDUSTRIES

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MARKETSBatteryrecyclingworldwideCHAPTER

01OverviewProductionvolumeofbatterymineralsworldwidein2022(in1,000metrictons)Globalproductionvolumeofbatteryminerals2022Productionvolumeinthousandmetrictons600,000

800,000

1,000,0000200,000400,0001,200,0001,400,0001,600,0001,800,000Ironore*AluminumMagnesium**Copper***ManganeseZinc****1,600,00069,00027,00022,00020,00013,0009,5008,8004,5003,3001,300190Titanium*****SiliconLeadNickelGraphiteCobaltLithium**Cadmium130343Description:Asof2022,ironorewasthemostvoluminouslyproducedofthemineralsthatareusedintheproductionofbatteries,at1.6billionmetrictonsofironcontent.Nevertheless,ironorehasmanyusesbeyondbatteries.Lithium,averyimportantmaterialforbatteryproductionwithuptohalfofitsconsumptionattributedtothatpurpose,hadamuchlowerproductionvolumethatyear.Globallithiumproductionamountedto130thousandmetrictons(excludingU.S.production)in2022.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2022;mineralstypicallyusedtocreatebatteries.Theproductionvolumesoutlinedinthisstatisticrefertoglobaltotalproductionvolumes,anddonotrefertothevolumesproducedtobeusedspecificallyforbattery[...]

ReadmoreSource(s):USGeologicalSurveyDistributionoflithiumend-usageworldwidein2022,byareaofapplicationLithiumend-useshareintheglobalmarket2022Medical1%Airtreatment1%Otheruses5%Continuouscastingmoldpowders2%Lubricantgreases4%Ceramicsandglass7%Batteries80%4Description:In2022,batterieswerebyfarthelargestend-usageoflithiumworldwide.Thisapplicationaccountedfor80percentoflithiumconsumptionthatyear,whileuseinceramicsandglassmadeupanothersevenpercent.Increasesinbatterydemandwillcontinuetobeastrongdriveroflithiumconsumptioninthenearfuture,aslithium-ionbatterytechnologyisusedextensivelyintheproductionofelectricvehicles.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2022Source(s):USGeologicalSurveyLithium-ionbatterypriceworldwidefrom2013to2022(inU.S.dollarsperkilowatthour)Lithium-ionbatterypriceworldwide2013-2022800732700649600500400300200100042032424219817215015114120132014201520162017201820192020202120225Description:Li-ionbatterypackcostsrosetosome151U.S.dollarsperkilowatthourin2022,from141dollarsperkWhayearearlier.Lithium-ionbatteriesareoneofthemostefficientenergystoragedevicesworldwide.Overrecentyears,highscaleproductionandcapitalinvestmentintothebatteryproductionprocessmadelithium-ionbatterypackscheaperandmoreefficient.Thisdemonstratesastaggeringdemandforenergystorageworldwideandcouldbeattributedtothefactthattheworldis[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2013to2022;IncludesbatterycellandpackpricesSource(s):BloombergNEFDistributionofcostsoflithium-ionbatterycellsusedinelectricvehiclesworldwidein2021,bybatterycomponentElectricvehiclebatterycostshare2021,bycomponentOthers*14%Anode12%Cathode50%Manufacturinganddepreciation24%6Description:Cathodesusedinlithium-ionbatteriesforelectricvehicles(EVs)accountforthelargestshareofacell'scost,makingup51percentofcostsin2021.Cathodematerialsincludelithium,cobalt,manganese,andnickel.Meanwhile,theanode-frequentlymadeofgraphite-accountedfor12percentofcoststhatyear.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2021;*Includesseparator,electrolyte,housing,andothermaterials.Figuresarebasedonanaveragepack'sbatterycellcostof101U.S.dollarsperkilowatthour.Figuresmaynotaddupto100duetorounding.

ReadmoreSource(s):BloombergNEF;VisualCapitalistAveragelithiumcarbonatepricefrom2010to2022(inU.S.dollarspermetricton)Lithiumcarbonateprice2010-202240,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,00037,00016,00015,00012,600202111,70020198,65020168,40020206,80020136,69020146,50020156,06020125,18020105,18020115,0000201720182022*7Description:In2022,theaveragepriceofbattery-gradelithiumcarbonatewasestimatedat37,000U.S.dollarspermetricton.Thisfigureisbyfarthehighestpriceforbattery-gradelithiumcarbonaterecordedintheperiodofconsideration.Lithiumisahighlyreactivesoftandsilvery-whitealkalimetal.Asthethirdelementintheperiodictable,ithas3protonsinitsnucleusandthreeelectronsaroundit.Asaresultofbeinghighlyreactive,itcannotbefoundinitspureforminnature.Lithiumistheleast[...]ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2010to2022;*Estimated.Annualaveragepriceforbattery-gradelithiumcarbonate.Thisstatisticwasassembledusingseveraleditionsofthereport.

ReadmoreSource(s):BenchmarkMinerals;USGeologicalSurveyCHAPTER

02DemandMineralcontentofbatteryelectricvehiclescomparedtoconventionalvehiclesasof2022,bytype(inkilogramspervehicle)MineralscontentofEVversusconventionalvehiclesbymineraltype2022MineralcontentinkilogramspervehicleConventionalvehicle30Electricvehicle400102050607022.3CopperManganeseGraphiteNickel53.211.224.50000066.339.9Cobalt13.3Lithium8.9RareearthsOthers0.50.309Description:Batteryelectricvehicles(EV)requireseveralmoremineralsthanconventionalvehicles,includingonaveragesome66.3kilogramsofgraphiteandnearly40kilogramsofnickelpervehicle.Indeed,batteryEVsrequirevaryingquantitiesoflithium,cobalt,nickel,graphite,andrareearths,whileconventionalvehiclesdonot.ManganeseandcopperarerequiredforbothconventionalvehiclesandbatteryEVs,albeitinaboutdoublethequantityinbatteryEVs.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2022Source(s):EnergyMonitor;IEAMineralcontentofselectedelectricvehiclelithium-ionbatterytypesin2020(inkilograms)EVLi-ionbatterymineralcontent2020,bytypeGraphiteNickelAluminumSteelCopperManganeseLithiumCobaltIron70666050454444434139403020100303026

2620

2017

17665552000000NMC811NCA+LFP10Description:Electricvehicles(EVs)useavarietyoflithium-ionbatterytypes,whichvarybychemicalcompositionandthusmineralcontent.Forexample,anaverageNMC811battery-thelatestgenerationofnickel,manganese,andcobaltbatteries-contains39,5,and5kilogramsofitscathodecomponentmaterials,respectively.Theyalsohavethelowestdemandforlithium,amongthedepictedtypes.MeanwhileNCA+batteriescontainonaveragetwokilogramsofcobalt,lessthanhalftherequirements[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2020;Figuresareforlithium-ionbatterieswitha60KWHcapacitySource(s):Transport&Environment;VisualCapitalistLithium-ionbatterydemandforelectricvehicles(EVs)worldwidefrom2016to2022,byregion(ingigawatt-hours)EVlithium-ionbatterydemandworldwide2016-2022,byregionChinaEuropeUnitedStatesOther6005004003002001000201620172018201920202021202211Description:Globaldemandforelectricvehiclelithium-ionbatteriesstoodataround550gigawatt-hoursin2022,anincreaseof65percentincomparisontothepreviousyear.Chinaledthemarketbyawidemargin,accountingforroughlyhalfofthedemandin2022.TheEuropeandemandforlithium-ionbatteriesforEVsamountedtosome128gigawatt-hoursthatsameyear.ReadmoreNote(s):2016to2022Source(s):IEAElectricvehicleindustrydemandofselectedmineralsworldwidein2020,withaforecastfor2030and2040(in1,000metrictons)Globalmineraldemandoftheelectricvehiclesector2020-2040CobaltLithiumCopperNickelGraphite4,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,0005003,568.53,286.73,119.42,499.31,632.61,567859.3441.1358.4256.6141110.3202080.521.119.802030204012Description:Demandforvariousmineralsusedintheproductionofelectricvehicles(EVs)isforecasttosoarinthecomingdecades.Thedemandforlithium,acriticalcomponentoflithium-ionbatteries,isprojectedtoriseover43-foldbetween2020and2040,toaround859thousandtonsinthelatteryear.Thatsameyear,demandforgraphite,nickel,andcopperisexpectedtosurpassthreemilliontonseach.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2020;basedonIEA'sSustainableDevelopmentScenarioSource(s):IEA;MiningTechnologyProjectionoflithiumdemandworldwidefrom2020to2035(in1,000metrictonsoflithiumcarbonateequivalent)Projectionofgloballithiumdemand2020-20354,5004,0003,5003,0002,5003,8293,4773,1822,9332,6882,4532,1301,8612,0001,5001,0005001,62820271,43320261,25720251,07220249176905083100202020212022*20232028202920302031203220332034203513Description:In2030,theglobaldemandforlithiumisexpectedtosurpass2.4millionmetrictonsoflithiumcarbonateequivalent,doublingthedemandforecastfor2025.Increasesinbatterydemandforelectricvehicleswillbeastrongdriveroflithiumconsumptioninthenextdecade,withdemandexpectedtoreach3.8milliontonsby2035.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2023;*Startingfromtheindicatedyear,figuresareforecastsSource(s):ComisiónChilenadelCobreCHAPTER

03MarketSizeMarketvalueofelectricvehiclebatteryrecyclingworldwidein2022,withforecaststo2028(inbillionU.S.dollars)Forecastelectricvehiclebatteryrecyclingmarketvalue2022-2028121089.87.7664.73.74202.92.32022*2023**2024202520262027202815Description:Theelectricvehicle(EV)batteryrecyclingmarketwasestimatedat2.3billionU.S.dollarsin2022.Thissectorisforecasttogrowatacompoundannualgrowthrateof27.3percentoverthecomingyears,toreach9.8billiondollarsin2028.AsmoreEVsentertheglobalvehiclefleet,massiveamountsofretiredEVbatterieswillbeavailableforrepurposingand/orassourcesforthematerialsneededforfurtherbatteryproduction.

ReadmoreNote(s):*Estimate;**Startingfromtheindicatedyear,figuresareforecastsSource(s):ResearchandMarkets;Marketvalueoflithium-ionbatteryrecyclingsectorworldwidein2021and2022,withaprojectionfor2031(inbillionU.S.dollars)Globallithium-ionbatteryrecyclingmarketvalue2021-203140353025201535.1106.55.250202120222031*16Description:Themarketvalueoflithium-ionbatteryrecyclingworldwidewasestimatedat6.5billionU.S.dollarsin2022.Thisfigureisforecasttogrowwithacompoundannualgrowthrate(CAGR)ofmoretan20percentinthecomingdecade,reaching35.1billiondollarsin2031.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2021and2022;*ForecastSource(s):MarketsandMarketsForecastlithium-ionbatterymarketrevenuein2030,bysegment(inbillionU.S.dollars)Forecastlithium-ionbatterymarketrevenue2030,bysegmentRevenueinbillionU.S.dollars600204080100120121140CellActivematerialsPack11074Refining52Mining34Reuseandrecycle1317Description:Lithium-ionbatteriescouldbecomea400billionU.S.dollarmarketby2030.Thecellitselfholdsamarketrevenuepotentialofabout121billionU.S.dollars.Meanwhile,miningoflithium-ionbatterymineralsareexpectedtogenerate34billionU.S.dollarsofrevenuein2030.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2023Source(s):McKinsey&CompanyRevenueopportunitiesinlithium-ionbatteryreuseandrecyclingin2030,bycountry(inbillionU.S.dollars)Lithium-ionbatteryreuseandrecyclerevenue2030,bycountry766543210322ChinaEuropeU.S.Restoftheworld18Description:In2030,therevenueopportunityinreusingandrecyclinglithium-ionbatteriesisexpectedtostandataround13billionU.S.dollarsworldwide.Chinaalonewillaccountforroughlyhalfofthisvalue.Themarketforrecycledbatteriesisgraduallygrowingasdemandforelectricalvehiclesgrowsaroundtheworld.Astheworlddemandforlithium-ionbatteriescontinuestosoar,theminingindustrywillneedtorampupproductionoflithium.Recyclingcapacitiesoflithium-ionbatterieswill[...]ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2023Source(s):McKinsey&CompanyProposedrecoveryrateforbatterymineralsaccordingtotheEURegulatoryFrameworkforBatteriesin2027and2031,bymineralTargetsforbatterymineralrecoveryintheEU2027-2031Cobalt90%CopperLeadNickelLithium100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%95%95%95%95%90%90%90%80%50%2027203119Description:ThenewEURegulatoryFrameworkforBatteriesaimstosetamoresustainablesupplychainforbatteries,includingmaterialrecoveryratesforbatteryminerals.Theproposedlegislationrequires90percentofcobalt,copper,lead,andnickel,aswellas50percentoflithiumtoberecoveredfrombatteriesby2027.Thesefiguresriseto95percentand80percent,respectively,by2031.ThenewEURegulatoryFrameworkforBatterieswasfirstproposedin2020andreplacestheEUBatteries[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):EU;2023Source(s):EuropeanParliamentCHAPTER

04SupplyandcapacityBatterymaterialavailableforrecyclingworldwidein2020,withforecaststo2040(inkilotons)Batteryrecyclingmaterialavailableworldwide2020-20408,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0007,3003,4001,40020308001,000200202002025*2035204021Description:In2020,theamountofbatterymaterialavailableforrecyclingworldwidewasestimatedat200kilotons.Thisfigureisexpectedtoincreaseseven-foldby2030,asbatteriesinthemarketreachtheendoftheirlifetimeanddemandfornewbatteriesincreases.By2040,itisforecastthatoversevenmilliontonsofbatterymaterialwillbeavailableforrecycling.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2022;*Startingfromtheindicatedyear,figuresareforecastsSource(s):McKinsey&CompanySupplyofEVbatteriesforrecyclingworldwidein2020,withaforecastfrom2025to2040(inkilotons)GlobalsupplyofEVbatteriesforrecycling2020-204025,00020,00015,00010,00020,5007,85020355,0001,85020309002025*25002020204022Description:In2020,EVbatteriesavailableforrecyclingworldwideamountedtoanestimated250kilotons.Thisfigureisexpectedtoincreasemorethanseven-foldby2030,asbatteriesinthemarketreachtheendoftheirlifetimeanddemandfornewbatteriesincreases.By2040,itisforecastthatover20milliontonsofEVbatterieswillbeavailableforrecycling.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2023;*Startingfromtheindicatedyear,figuresareforecastsSource(s):McKinsey&CompanyDistributionofEVbatteriessupplyforrecyclingworldwidein2020,withaforecastfrom2025to2040,bysourceGlobalsupplyofEVbatteriesforrecycling2020-2040,bysourceEndoflifeProductionscrap120%100%80%60%40%20%0%6%14%86%203543%48%53%94%57%52%47%20202025*2030204023Description:In2020,roughlyhalfoftheglobalsupplyofEVbatteriesavailableforrecyclingoriginatedfromproductionscrapfromfactories,withtheotherhalfbeingsuppliedbycellsreachingtheendoftheirproductivelife.From2030,end-of-lifebatteriesareexpectedtoaccountforthelargestshareofsupply,contributingashareof94percentin2040.ThesupplyofEVbatteriesforrecyclingworldwideisforecasttosurpass20milliontonsbythatsameyear.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2023;*Startingfromtheindicatedyear,figuresareforecastsSource(s):McKinsey&CompanyBatteryscrapavailableforrecyclinginEuropein2021,withaforecastuntil2030(in1,000metrictons)BatteryscrapavailableforrecyclinginEurope2021-2030350300250200325.6219.4171.6150120.692.710050063.120212022*2024*2026*2028*2030*24Description:In2021,therewereapproximately63thousandmetrictonsofbatteryscrapavailableforrecyclinginEurope.Thisfigureisforecasttoincreasecontinuouslythroughthedecade,tosurpass260thousandtonsby2030.

ReadmoreNote(s):Europe;2021Source(s):Bloomberg;CircularEnergyStorageBatteryrecyclingcapacityworldwideasofJune2021,bycountry(in1,000metrictons)Electricvehiclebatteryrecyclingcapacity2021,bycountryCapacityinthousandmetrictons100050150200250ChinaSouthKoreaUnitedStatesBelgium23124207Australia3Germany1.525/statistics/1333941/worldwide-ev-battery-recycling-capacity-by-countryAsofJune2021,Chinawasbyfartheworldwideleaderintermsofbatteryrecyclingcapacity,withmorethan230thousandmetrictons.ThiswasnearlytentimestherecyclingcapacityofSouthKorea,whichrankedsecondwith24thousandtons.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;June2021Source(s):Bloomberg;BloombergNEFCHAPTER

05KeyPlayersRevenueofLi-CyclefromFY2020toFY2022(inmillionU.S.dollars)Li-Cycle'sannualrevenue2020-202216141210813.47.36420.8020202021202227Description:RevenuegeneratedbyLi-Cyclehasgrownsubstantiallyduringtheperiodinconsideration,amountingtosome13.4millionU.S.dollarsin2022.Thisfigurerepresentsanincreseofmorethan80percentincomparisontothepreviousyear.Li-CycleisaToronto-basedrecyclingcompanyspecializingintherecoveryofmineralsfromlithium-ionbatteries.ReadmoreNote(s):NorthAmerica,Europe;FY2020toFY2022;IncludingproductsalesandrecyclingservicesSource(s):Li-CycleDistributionofintakesourcesoflithium-ionbatteriesforrecyclingbyLi-CycleinFY2022Shareoflithium-ionbatteriesrecycledbyLi-Cycle2022,bysourceConsumerelectronics14%Transportation*41%Manufacturingscrap20%Energystoragesystems25%28Description:Lithium-ionbatteriesusedintransportationapplicationsmadeupthelargestshareofLi-Cycle'sbatteryintakeforrecyclinginfinancialyear2022,accountingforsome41percent.Energystoragesystemsrankedsecond,withashareofroughly25percent.Li-CycleisaToronto-basedrecyclingcompanyspecializingintherecoveryofmineralsfromlithium-ionbatteries.ReadmoreNote(s):NorthAmerica,Europe;FY2022;*Includesend-of-life,damaged,defective,andrecalledbatteries.Figuresarebasedonweightofbatterymaterials.

ReadmoreSource(s):Li-CycleLithium-ionbatteryrecyclingcapacityofLi-Cyclein2021withaprojectionfor2025,byregion(ingigawatthours)Li-Cyclebatteryrecyclingcapacity2021-2025,byregion20212025*1,00093090080070060050050040030020010004537NorthAmericaEurope29Description:Thelithium-ionbatteryrecyclingcapacityofLi-Cycleisprojectedtogrowconsiderablyinthecomingye