东盟能源数据-评估煤炭在东盟能源转型和煤炭淘汰中的作用（英）

ASSESSMENTOFTHEROLEOFCOALINTHEASEANENERGYTRANSITIONANDCOAL

PHASE-OUT

MAY2024

ASSESSMENTOFTHEROLEOF

COALINTHEASEANENERGY

TRANSITIONANDCOALPHASE-OUT

MAY2024

Publishedby:

ASEANCentreforEnergy

SoemantriBrodjonegoroIIBuilding,6thFl.

DirectorateGeneralofElectricity

Jl.HR.RasunaSaidBlockX-2,Kav.07-08

Jakarta,12950,Indonesia

Tel.(62-21)5279332|Fax.(62-21)52793350

E-mail:secretariat@

Acknowledgements

ThisPaperentitled“AssessmentoftheRoleofCoalintheASEANEnergyTransitionandCoalPhase-Out”wasdevelopedbytheASEANCentreforEnergy(ACE)andguidedbytheASEANForumonCoal(AFOC)andtheASEANSecretariat.

Guidance:OveralldirectionandguidancewereprovidedbyH.E.SatvinderSingh(DeputySecretary-GeneralforASEANEconomicCommunity,ASEANSecretariat),ASEANSeniorOfficialonEnergy(SOE)Leaders,DrNukiAgyaUtama(ExecutiveDirectorofACE),andDato’Ir.Ts.AbdulRazibDawood(ASEANForumonCoal–AFOCChairman).SpecialthankstoBeniSuryadi,ManagerofPower,FossilFuel,AlternativeEnergyandStorage(PFS)DepartmentofACEforhissupervisionandvaluableadvice.

Authors:ThisPaperwaspreparedbyChaedarIndraPramanaandSuwanto,withreceivingvaluableinputsfromMarieGaildeSagonandAlfredChristopherGurningfromtheASEANSecretariat,DrAmbiyahAbdullah,DrZulfikarYurnaidi,RizkyAdityaPutra,ShaniaEsmeraldaManaloeandallPFSTeamoftheASEANCentreforEnergy.

ContributingASEANMemberStates:SpecialrecognitionisgiventoallASEANForumonCoal(AFOC)FocalPointsfromallASEANMemberStatesfortheirconstructivefeedback:DepartmentofElectricalServicesofBruneiDarussalam,MinistryofMinesandEnergyofCambodia,MinistryofEnergyandMineralResourcesofIndonesia,theMinistryofEnergyandMinesofLaoPDR,EnergyCommissionofMalaysia,MinistryofNaturalResourcesandEnvironmentalConservationofMyanmar,DepartmentofEnergy(DOE)ofthePhilippines,EnergyMarketAuthorityofSingapore,MinistryofEnergyofThailand,andMinistryofIndustryandTradeofVietnam.

Experts:SpecialappreciationgoestoDrLarsSchernikau,DrVictorNian(CentreforStrategicEnergyandResources),PaulBaruya(FutureCoal),fortheirinvaluableinsightsandexpertisetosharpentheanalysis.TheirviewsandopinionsexpressedinthisPaperdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsorpositionsofanyentitiestheyrepresent.

DesignandLayout:ThankstoZahraHanifahBudimanforhercreativecontributionstothedesignandlayoutofthisPaper,withthestrongsupportfromBayuJamalullael.AlsothankstoBayuSuryaPrayogieforassistingthedesignofthepubliclaunching.

CommunicationsTeam:SpecialrecognitiongoestoRindaRufaidahandAureliaSyafinaLuthfifortheireffortsinpreparingthecommunicationsstrategyandfinalisingthepublicationfordistribution.

AdministrationTeam:ThankstoDrAndyTirtaandDwikySyariefSamaptaMuftifortheirgreatassistanceinhandlingalladministrativematters.

ii

Abbreviations

ACEASEANCentreforEnergy

ADBAsianDevelopmentBank

AEOASEANEnergyOutlook

AFOCASEANForumonCoal

AIMSASEANInterconnectionMasterplanStudy

AMSASEANMemberStates

APAECASEANPlanofActionforEnergyCooperation

APSAnnouncedPledgesScenario

ASEANAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations

ATBASEANTaxonomyBoard

ATSAMSTargetScenario

BAUBusinessAsUsual

BESSBatteryEnergyStorageSystem

CAESCompressedAirEnergyStorage

CCSCarbonCaptureandStorage

CCTCleanCoalTechnology

CCUSCarbonCapture,Utilization,andStorage

CFPPCoal-FiredPowerPlant

CHPCombinedHeatandPower

CODCommercialOperationDate

COPConferenceoftheParties

CPDCoalPhase-Down

CPOCoalPhase-Out

EFBEmptyPalmFruitBunches

EIEnergyIntensity

EOEnvironmentalObjective

ETMEnergyTransitionMechanism

EUEuropeanUnion

EVNVietnamElectricity

FCFinancialClose

FFFoundationFramework

GDPGrossDomesticProduct

GFANZGlasgowFinancialAllianceforNetZero

GHGGreenhouseGas

iii

GW

Gigawatt

HELE

High-Efficiency,Low-Emission

IEA

InternationalEnergyAgency

JETP

JustEnergyTransitionPartnership

LCO

LeastCostOptimization

LCOE

LevelizedCostofElectricity

LDES

LongDurationEnergyStorage

LNG

LiquefiedNaturalGas

LULUCF

LandUse,Land-UseChange,andForestry

MEMR

MinistryofEnergyandMineralResources

MTOE

MillionTonnesofOilEquivalent

MW

Megawatt

NREL

NationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory

NZE

NetZeroEmissions

NZP

NetZeroPathway

PLN

PerusahaanListrikNegara

PLTU

PembangkitListrikTenagaUap

PS

PlusStandard

PSH

PumpedStorageHydro

PV

Photovoltaic

RE

RenewableEnergy

REO

RenewableEnergyOutlook

SCR

SelectiveCatalyticReduction

SDG

SustainableDevelopmentGoal

SMR

SmallModularReactor

SRF

SolidRecoveredFuel

TSC

TechnicalScreeningCriteria

TWh

Terawatt-hour

UK

UnitedKingdom

UNFCC

UnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange

US

UnitedStates

USD

UnitedStatesDollar

VALCOE

Value-AdjustedLevelizedCostofElectricity

VRE

VariableRenewableEnergy

WCA

WorldCoalAssociation

iv

iii

TableofContents

01

Introduction

08

TheRoleofCoal

inSoutheastAsia

02

Critical

AssessmentofCoalPhase-out(CPO)inthe

Taxonomy

14

ImplicationsofCoal-PhaseOut

19

Challengesin

Developing

AlternativeEnergy

SourcestoCoal

22

HowShouldthe

GradualReductionofCoalFleetsBe?

26

Conclusionand

WayForward

v

ListofFigure

Figure1.TotalenergysupplyinEJ(top)andtotalfinalconsumptioninEJ(bottom)ofdifferentjurisdictionsandcountriesbyscenario.

Figure2.ElectricitygenerationinTWhofdifferentjurisdictionsandcountriesbyscenario.

Figure3.AgedistributionofCFPPsinASEAN.

Figure4.ReferenceCFPPemissionfactorsingCO2/kWhinASEAN.

Figure5.LifecycleGHGEmissionsforSelectedElectricityGenerationandStorageTechnologies.

Figure6.Coalinprimaryenergysupply,finalenergyconsumption,powergeneration,andinstalledcapacitybasedontheAMSTargetScenario(ATS).

Figure7.CoalinASEAN’s(a)PowerGeneration,(b)InstalledPowerCapacity,(c)PrimaryEnergySupply,and(d)FinalEnergyConsumptionbasedonLCO.

Figure8.CoaldomesticsupplyandtradebalanceofselectedAMS.

Figure9.Themacroeconomicrelevanceofcoalpresentedbyselectedindicatorsbasedon2017data.

Figure10.CostcomponentsofLCOEandVALCOE.

Figure11.ProjectedrangeofVALCOEofdifferenttechnologiesin2040underlow,medium,andhighpriceassumptions.

Figure12.PowergenerationofallpowerplantsbysourcesinGermany(top)andpowergenerationfromconventionalpowerplantsbysourcesover10daysinNovember2021.

Figure13.ComparisonofinstalledcapacityandpowergenerationfromdispatchableandREsourcesin2010and2021inGermany.

Figure14.ComparisonofinstalledcapacityandpowergenerationfromdispatchableandREsourcesin2010and2021inASEAN.

Figure15.Globalpopulationwithoutaccesstoelectricitybyregionbetween2010and2023.

Figure16.Employmentinthecoalindustry,coalproduction,andlabourintensitybetween2012-2020.

3

4

5

7

7

8

9

10

10

11

12

13

14

15

15

18

vi

ListofTable

Table1.AMS’targetsonemissionsreduction.2

Table2.TheinvestmentrequirementsofselectedscenariosinAEO717

and2ndREOutlook.

Table3.Majorpolicies,regulationsandinitiativesinbiomassuse21

(includingco-firing)inASEAN.

Table4.CFPPsinIndonesiathathavesuccessfullytestedbiomassco-21

firingwith1-5%ratio.

vii

ExecutiveSummary

ThelatestversionsoftheASEANTaxonomy(2ndand3rdversions)incorporatedistinctcriteriaforassessingcoalphase-out(CPO)initiatives.Tobelabelledas“green”,activitiesmustalignwithatrajectoryaimingfora1.5-degreepathwayandbecongruentwiththeIEANet-ZeroEmissiontrajectory,involvingaCPObythelate2040s.Notably,coalpowerplantsconstructedafterDecember2022willnotmeetthe“green”criteria.Ontheotherhand,“amber”activitiesencompassslightlylessstrictprerequisites,permittingaphase-outby2050.Bothclassificationsmandatethattheoperationallifespanofcoal-firedpowerplants(CFPPs)belimitedto35yearsfromtheircommercialoperationdate(COD).

However,thelatestversionsoftheASEANTaxonomymayrequiresomerefinementtoclarifysomeambiguitiesandavoidunintendedconsequences.CPOclassificationwithinVersion2oftheTaxonomyshowsaninadequacyindistinguishingbetweenabatedandunabatedCFPPs.ThisclassificationmayinadvertentlyincludeabatedCFPPsintheearlyretirementinitiatives.Furthermore,theTaxonomy'sclassificationofelectricitygenerationactivitiesappearslimited,asitexcludeselectricitygenerationfromabatedcoal-firedpowerplantsequippedwithcarboncapturetechnology.ThisomissionpersistseventhoughtheTaxonomydoesnotoutrightprohibitelectricitygenerationfromfossilfuels,inlinewiththeTechnicalScreeningCriteria(TSC)forEnvironmentalObjective1(EO1)principlesonclimatechangemitigation.Fortunately,Version3oftheASEANTaxonomyhasspecifiedtheinclusionofCFPPsthatareequippedwithabatementtechnologiessuchasCCUSaslongastheresultinglifecyclegreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsmeettheTSCrequirement.

RelyingprimarilyontheIEA'sNetZeroEmission(NZE)PathwayastheTaxonomy'sfoundationisalsooverlyambitiousandnotsufficientlytailoredtotheuniquecircumstancesfoundinSoutheastAsia.IEA'sassumptionsintheirNetZeroPathway(NZP)donotapplytoSoutheastAsiaonmanyaccounts,astheyoverestimatesolarandwind'sreliability,lifespan,andenergyreturns,whileunderestimatingthecostsofupgradinggridinfrastructure.Thiswouldmakesolarandwindmoreexpensivethancoal,jeopardizingindustryandhouseholds.Asaresult,thephase-outstrategymaynotyetbesuitablefortheregiongivenitsexistingenergylandscape.CoalPhase-down(CPD)attherighttimeismorerelevantthanCoalPhase-out(CPO).CPDwillprovidesomerelieftorecentlycommissionedcoalpowerplantstohave30yearsofoperationallifespansratherthanbeingdecommissionedearlier.Implementingagradualreductionincoalusageprovidesatransitionalperiodforidentifyinganddevelopingeconomicandenvironmentallybeneficialrenewableenergysources.CPDwillsupportthegrowthoftechnologiesandenergystoragesolutionsnecessaryforscalinguprenewableenergycapacity.TakingtheexamplefromtheexperienceoftheEUduringthe2022-2024energycrisis,phasingdowncoalwouldstillallowcountriestosecuretheirenergyinsteadofcompletelyphasingoutcoal.

Afterall,coalphase-outposestremendouschallengesforASEANduetotheroleofcoalinprovidingsufficientenergysuppliesatthelowestcostpossible,itscontributionstotheregion’seconomyanditsemploymentofthousandsofpeopleincoal-dependentareas.Thetransitionawayfromcoalshouldthereforebedoneinajust,gradualwaywheneconomicallyandenvironmentallyviablealternativesareavailableatgridscale,toavoidsacrificingeconomicgrowthandequityaswellassocialstability.Ithastobeunderscoredthatenergytransition

viii

effortsshouldnotsacrificeenergyaffordability,wherethedrivetoreplacecoalasanenergysourcemustensurethatitwillnotresultincontinuouslyrisingenergyprices,especiallyasaresultofoverlookingthehiddencostoftheconsiderabletransmissionandequipmentupgradesneeded

tobringintermittentREsourcesonline.Moreover,replacingthestablegenerationofbaseloadselectricity—aswellassteamandheatasthesecondaryoutcomecriticalinindustrialfacilities—thattodatehavebeenmetbyCFPPswillneedmassiveamountsofREandbatterystoragetobeimmediatelymadeavailableaccordingtothetimelineofthecoalretirements.

Furthermore,onthebasisoftheregion’scontinuingprojectedeconomicgrowth,whichisrelativelymorerapidcomparedtodevelopedeconomies,energydemandinASEANisprojectedtotriplebytheyear2050comparedtothe2020level.TherecentupdateoftheIEA’sNZEpathwayitself,“

AnupdatedRoadmaptoNetZeroEmissionsby2050

”,releasedinSeptember2023,showsthattheearlierNZEScenariohadnotadequatelyanticipatedanincreaseofenergydemandpost-pandemic,wheretheglobalenergydemandin2021increasedby5.4%duetotheglobaleconomicreboundwhichalsosawincreasedcoaluseandasurgeinCO2emissions.Indeed,theNZEScenarioassumesthatenergyconsumptionpercapitamustdeclineastheglobalpopulationgrows,whichhasproventobeachallengingfeatconsideringthemassivesuppressionofenergyuseimposedonlargepartsoftheworld.

CoalindeedwillremainanimportantenergysourceinASEAN,accordingtothelatest7thASEANEnergyOutlook.ThisremainsthecaseevenwhentheASEANMemberStates(AMS)pursuetheregionaltarget(APAEC),especiallyiftheleast-costoptimisation(LCO)Scenarioistobeachieved.Underthisscenario,coal-firedgenerationconstitutesalmosthalfofASEAN’stotalgenerationin2030anddropstoonly28%in2050.EveninenergysystemsthataretransitioningtoahighershareofRE,includingthoseinEurope,thecoalfleetsarestillexpectedtoplayaroleasasourceofflexiblegeneration.Theirabilitytofine-tunetheiroperationsandserveswiftlyasareliableenergysupplybackupiscriticaltotheavoidanceofpotentialpowerdisruptionswhenthevariousformsofvariableRE(VRE)experienceintermittencyissues.

Infact,coalcurrentlyoutperformsotherenergysourcesintermsofsupplysecurity,reliability,affordabilityand—tosomeextent—sustainabilityinASEAN’spowergeneration.

Thecoal-to-gasinitiativeseemstobealow-hangingfruitfordecarbonisingASEAN’spowersector,butassomeAMSarelackingliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)terminalsandpipelinesforgastransportation,itrequireshugeinvestmentsingasinfrastructure.Moreover,SoutheastAsiahasabundantcoalresourcesrelativetonaturalgasresources.Astheregionispredictedtobecomeanetimporterofnaturalgasby2025,increasingthedependenceongaswillexposetheregiontothevolatileglobalnaturalgasmarketsevendeeper.Coalalsoservesasareliablebaseloadgenerationsourcethatcanprovideastableandcontinuoussupplyofelectricity—onefeaturethatVREislackingunlessitiscoupledwithstoragetechnology,whichmayinflatethecostsfurthertoachievecomparablestability.Theanalysisofthevalue-adjustedlevelisedcostofelectricity(VALCOE)alsoshowsthatcoalisstillcompetitivecomparedtohydroelectricandsolarPVbecauseofitsaffordabilityandflexibilitytorespondtodemandfluctuations.Meanwhile,nuclear—includingthesmallmodularreactors(SMRs)—astheenergysourcewiththemostcomparablecapabilitieswithcoalisstillunderdevelopmentinASEANwithseveralcomplexnon-technicalchallenges,includinglowpublicacceptance.Meanwhile,theadoptionofbiomassinpowergenerationisstillencounteringvariouschallenges,particularlyininfrastructureandsupplycontinuity,includingpotentialsustainabilityissuessuchascompetitionwithagriculturallands,

ix

waterresourcesandfoodsupplies,lossofbiodiversity,deforestation,drainageofpeatland,soilerosionandsocialconflicts.Geothermalpowerhasthesecond-highestcapacityfactorafternuclear.Still,itsdeploymentisstagnantandhasfacedseveralissuesinIndonesiaandthePhilippinespertainingprimarilytoinstitutional,regulatoryandtariff-relatedfactors.

KeyRecommendations

TheinclusionofCPOintheASEANTaxonomyshouldbecarefullyevaluated,

especiallytheconditionsofitstechnicalscreeningcriteria(TSC).ThisincludestherationaleofusingtheIEA’sNetZeroEmissions(NZE)Scenarioin2050astheprimaryreferenceinsteadofthe7thASEANEnergyOutlook(AEO7)in2022andtheupcoming8thASEANEnergyOutlook(AEO8)in2024(whichwillincludetheleastcostoptimisationorLCOScenarioforregionalnetzerotargets).AstheIEANZEScenariofromtheWorldEnergyOutlook2022washighlyinfluencedbytheadvancedeconomies(USandEU)andChina,andover-emphasisedthelevelizedcostofelectricity(LCOE)insteadofVALCOE,ASEAN’sadoptionoftheoutcomesfromthisdocumentmustbethoroughlyassessedgiventhatASEANandotheremergingcountrieshaveverydifferentenergyandgrowthlandscapes.Infact,whentheIEAreleasedits2021NZEpathway,itacknowledgedthiswasnotthepathwaybutoneofpotentiallynarrowpathwaysapplicableonaveragetotheglobalscenarioandwasnotintendedtobeuniformlyappliedasthebaselineforallcountriesorregions.

ItisessentialtoalsoprovideclarityregardingtheutilisationoflifecycleGHG—includingmethane—emissionthresholdsforelectricitygenerationwithintheCPO'sTSC.

Ifsuchthresholdsareindeedinuseandwidelyacceptableforcountriesandregionsthatdonothaveastatuscomparabletodev-

evelopedeconomies,are-evaluationofthisTSCisdeemedessential,anditshouldinvolveconsultationswithrelevantstakeholders.Thisisparticularlycriticalgiventheevolvingtechnologicallandscapebecausethecurrentapproachmayprecludeanycoalpowerplantsfromreceivinga"green"label,eventhoseincorporatingCCS/CCUStechnologies,supplyingflyashtocementmanufacturingtocreateemissionsavings,orimplementingco-firingwithbiomassorammoniatoreducecoalconsumption.

AdditionalitemsinthesubsequentversionsoftheTaxonomythereforeneedcarefulevaluationtoavoidcounterproductiveorunclearmessages,includingtheexclusionofcertaintypesofpowerplants(e.g.,abatedCFPPswithCCS/CCUS)thatmaystilltechnicallymeetthelifecycleGHGemissionsspecifiedintheTSCortheinclusionof“bestinclasstechnology”,“affordable”and“accessible”criteriathatlackunambiguousdefinition,amongmanyothercriticalconditionsandconsiderations.TheASEANTaxonomyBoard(ATB)hasbeenproventocontinuouslyrefinetheTaxonomybyrevisingthesetwocriteriapresentedinversion2.

Wemustconsiderthefar-reachingimplicationsofCPObeforeadvocatingsuchapolicy.

Theseincludepotentialfinanciallossesfromtheanticipatedrevenuesfrompowergeneration,strandedassetsfromretiredpowerplants,joblossesalongthecoalvaluechains,affordabilityissuesfromrisingenergycostandweakenedenergysecuritysince

x

naturalgasimports,astheimmediatesubstituteforcoal,mayneedtobeintensified.Thelargestusersofcoal,ChinaandIndia,forinstance,havetheirnetzerotargetsin2060to2070,respectively,indicatingroomfortheregiontocalibratetoamorerealisticandbalancedcoalphase-down.Moreover,theneedforamassiveandimmediateramp-upofREandstorageisindispensableifwewanttoachievethe1.50Ctarget,demandinginvestmentsfivetimeslargerthanwhenareasonable,gradualincreaseofREshareispursued.

Astrategicshiftfromcoalshouldbeimplementedattherighttimeassoonaseconomicandenvironmentallyfriendlyalternativesatthegridscalebecomeavailable.

Thisisinordertoensureajustandseamlesstransitionwithoutcompromisingeconomicdevelopmentandsocialstability.Thesestrategiesincludetheadoptionofcleancoaltechnologies(CCTs),suchashigh-efficiency,low-emission(HELE)powerplants,biomassandammoniaco-firingandCCS/CCUS.Theyalsoincludestrengtheningregulatoryframeworkssothatmarketmechanismsreduceemissionswhileprovidingsupporttoindustryplayers,anddevelopingcomprehensive,long-termenergyplanningthatincorporatesgridimprovement,financialincentivesforphase-downofcoal-basedemissionsandenergyefficiency,andexplorationofnewalternativeenergysources.

Atthistime,thelatestversionsoftheTaxonomyneednotdefineaparticularyearforCPObutcanbetailoredtowardsencouragingtheflowoffinancialresourcestoretireold,inefficientandun-abatablecoalplants,andreplacethemwithnewHELEcoalplants(possiblywithcombinedheatandpower(CHP)andpartialCCS)withcombinedheatandpower(CHP)andpartialCCS)with

comparablecapacitytoslashemissionswhile

retainingeffectiveinvestmentsinasystem

thatcandeliverbase/intermediateandpeak

loadoutputandprotectASEAN’s

competitiveness.Thenextversionofthe

TaxonomycanthenbenefitfromtheAEO8in

determiningamorestrategicphase-down

plan.

Supportforgridimprovementsand

upgradesisparticularlycritical.

Itistoenhancecapacityandresilienceto

accommodateasurgeinelectricitysupply

andaddressthesupply-demandfluctuations

causedbyVREaswereducedependencyon

coal.Vietnam’sexperiences,whereactual

dispatchofREpowertothegridsaw

significantcurtailmentsduetolimited

transmissioncapacity,showhowbuildinga

resilientandrobustgridinfrastructureisas

importantasincreasingtheshareofVRE.

Theseeffortsmayincludegridmodernisation,

integrationwithenergystorage,applicationof

smartgridsanddemand-sidemanagement.

Channellingthenecessaryinvestmentsto

supportthetransitiontowardsclean

energyisalsoequallyimportant,

asisestablishingsupportivetransitionfinance

mechanisms.Theseinvestmentsshould

emphasisecomprehensivesolutionsthatdo

notfavourspecificenergysourcesand

insteadfocusoncleantechnologiesand

practice,whichmayincludegasifiedcoalwith

CCSorefficientminingandtransportation.To

ensurethattheregioncanbalanceitsroleas

theengineofglobaleconomicgrowthandbe

aleaderinreducingGHGemissions,the

ASEANTaxonomyshouldalsobetailoredto

theAMS’statusandneedsandbeflexible

enoughtoincorporatecomprehensive

transitionpoliciesandtechnologies.

xi

Introduction

TheASEANTaxonomyforSustainableFinanceVersions2and3incorporatequalitativemethodologiestoevaluateeconomicoperations,andquantitativemethodologiestoharmonisethedefinitionofsustainableactivitiesandassetsinASEANwithglobal,systematicandscience-basedapproachestoclassifysustainableactivitiesandassets,includingtechnicalscreeningcriteria(TSC)asthequantitativeclassificationmethodusedinthePlusStandard(PS)forkeysectors.Thesecondversionincludesguidanceoncoalphase-out(CPO)TSC,whichwasaglobalfirstforaregionaltaxonomy.Thethirdversion,whichwasreleasedoneyearafterthesecondversion,reinforcedtheTaxonomybyincorporatingtheTSCwithtwoadditionalfocussectors,namelytransportationandstorageaswellasconstructionandrealestate.

ThisacknowledgementofCPOinthesecondversionhighlightsitsroleinachievingdecarbonisationin