高盛-预计推迟到9月降息

_

24May2024|6:09AMEDT

USDaily:MovingtheFirstFedCutBacktoSeptember(Mericle)

nWearemovingourforecastoftheFed’sfirstratecutbackonemeeting,fromJulytoSeptember.Earlierthisweek,wenotedthatcommentsfromFed

officialssuggestedthataJulycutwouldlikelyrequirenotjustbetterinflation

numbersbutalsomeaningfulsignsofsoftnessintheactivityorlabormarket

data.AfterthestrongerMayPMIsandlowerjoblessclaims,thisdoesnotlooklikethemostlikelyoutcome.

nFouradditionalCPIreportswillbeavailablebytheSeptembermeeting,andif

monthlycoreCPIinflationaveragesinthehigh20sandcorePCEinthelow20s,asweexpect,thenwethinkmostFOMCparticipantswillsupportaratecut.WeinterpretChairPowell’srecentcommentsaspointingtowarda

middle-of-the-roadpathofcuttinggraduallyinrecognitionofboththe

considerablecumulativeprogressmadeinsolvingtheinflationproblemandtherealitiesthatinflationislikelytoremainnoticeablyabovetargetthisyearandtheeconomyisperformingwellatthecurrentlevelofinterestrates.

nThetimingofthefirstcutremainsadifficultquestionforafewreasons.First,

wecontinuetoseeratecutsasoptional,whichlessenstheurgency.Second,

inflationislikelytobemuchimprovedbySeptemberbuthardlyperfectandstillatayear-on-yearratethatmakescuttingalessthanobviousdecision.Third,

whiletheFedleadershipappearstoshareourrelaxedviewontheinflation

outlookandwilllikelybereadytocutbeforetoolong,anumberofFOMC

participantsstillappeartobemoreconcernedaboutinflationandmorereluctanttocut.

JanHatzius

+1(212)902-0394|jan.hatzius@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

AlecPhillips

+1(202)637-3746|alec.phillips@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

DavidMericle

+1(212)357-2619|

david.mericle@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

SpencerHill,CFA

+1(212)357-7621|spencer.hill@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

RonnieWalker

+1(917)343-4543|

ronnie.walker@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

ManuelAbecasis

+1(212)902-8357|

manuel.abecasis@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

TimKrupa

+1(202)637-3771|tim.krupa@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

ElsiePeng

+1(212)357-3137|elsie.peng@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

JessicaRindels

+1(972)368-1516|

jessica.rindels@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegAC

certificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto

/research/hedge.html.

_

24May2024|6:09AMEDT

USDaily:MovingtheFirstFedCutBacktoSeptember(Mericle)

nWearemovingourforecastoftheFed’sfirstratecutbackonemeeting,fromJulytoSeptember.Earlierthisweek,wenotedthatcommentsfromFed

officialssuggestedthataJulycutwouldlikelyrequirenotjustbetterinflation

numbersbutalsomeaningfulsignsofsoftnessintheactivityorlabormarket

data.AfterthestrongerMayPMIsandlowerjoblessclaims,thisdoesnotlooklikethemostlikelyoutcome.

nFouradditionalCPIreportswillbeavailablebytheSeptembermeeting,andif

monthlycoreCPIinflationaveragesinthehigh20sandcorePCEinthelow20s,asweexpect,thenwethinkmostFOMCparticipantswillsupportaratecut.WeinterpretChairPowell’srecentcommentsaspointingtowarda

middle-of-the-roadpathofcuttinggraduallyinrecognitionofboththe

considerablecumulativeprogressmadeinsolvingtheinflationproblemandtherealitiesthatinflationislikelytoremainnoticeablyabovetargetthisyearandtheeconomyisperformingwellatthecurrentlevelofinterestrates.

nThetimingofthefirstcutremainsadifficultquestionforafewreasons.First,

wecontinuetoseeratecutsasoptional,whichlessenstheurgency.Second,

inflationislikelytobemuchimprovedbySeptemberbuthardlyperfectandstillatayear-on-yearratethatmakescuttingalessthanobviousdecision.Third,

whiletheFedleadershipappearstoshareourrelaxedviewontheinflation

outlookandwilllikelybereadytocutbeforetoolong,anumberofFOMC

participantsstillappeartobemoreconcernedaboutinflationandmorereluctanttocut.

JanHatzius

+1(212)902-0394|jan.hatzius@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

AlecPhillips

+1(202)637-3746|alec.phillips@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

DavidMericle

+1(212)357-2619|

david.mericle@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

SpencerHill,CFA

+1(212)357-7621|spencer.hill@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

RonnieWalker

+1(917)343-4543|

ronnie.walker@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

ManuelAbecasis

+1(212)902-8357|

manuel.abecasis@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

TimKrupa

+1(202)637-3771|tim.krupa@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

ElsiePeng

+1(212)357-3137|elsie.peng@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

JessicaRindels

+1(972)368-1516|

jessica.rindels@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegAC

certificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto

/research/hedge.html.

_

USDaily

Earlierthisweek,wenotedthatcommentsfromFedofficials,inparticularaspeechbyGovernorWaller,suggestedthataJulycutwouldlikelyrequirenotjustbetternumbersinthelimitednumberofinflationreportsstilltocomeaheadofthatmeeting,butalso

somesignsofsoftnessintheactivityorlabormarketdatathatcouldbringbackthe

24Ma2024

GoldmanSachs

MovingtheFirstFedCutBacktoSeptember

WearemovingourforecastoftheFed’sfirstratecutbackonemeeting,fromJulytoSeptember.Wecontinuetoexpectonecutperquarteroreveryothermeeting,

meaningthatthesecondcutwouldnowcomeinDecember.Theshiftintimingdoesnotchangeourexpectationoftwocutsintotalin2024.

senseofurgencythattheFedleadershipfeltatthestartoftheyear.AfterthestrongerMayPMIsandlowerjoblessclaims,thisdoesnotlooklikethemostlikelyoutcomeoverthenextcoupleofmonths.

WhatwillchangefromJulytoSeptember?Nothingfundamental,inourview,buttwoadditionalCPIreportswillbecomeavailable,foratotaloffourbetweennowandthe

Septembermeeting.WeexpectmonthlycoreCPIinflationtorunonaverageinthehigh20sandcorePCEinflationtoruninthelow20soverthatperiod,asshowninExhibit1.Ifourforecastsareroughlyright,thenwethinkmostFOMCparticipantswillsupportaratecutinSeptember.

WealsosuspectthattheFedleadershipwouldliketostartbythen.WeinterpretChairPowell’srecentcommentsaspointingtowardamiddle-of-the-roadpathofcutting

graduallystartingsometimethisyear.Suchanapproachwouldrecognizeboththe

considerablecumulativeprogressmadeinsolvingtheinflationproblem—corePCE

inflationhasbeencutinhalf,asPowellnoted,andtheriskofalate60s-styleinflationaryspiralhasbeenputtorest—aswellastherealitiesthatinflationisstillnoticeablyabovetargetandtheeconomyisperformingwellatthecurrentlevelofinterestrates.

Whycutatallthisyear?Whileourbaselineforecastcontinuestoimplythatthe

economywouldremaininexpansionevenwithoutcuts,therearesomesignsof

moderatesoftnessintheactivityandlabormarketdata,andFedofficialsmightfearthattheabrupttransitionfromverylowrateslastcycletomuchhigherratesthiscycle

invitesthesortofunpredictablefinancialtroubleseenintheBritishpensionfundand

USregionalbankcrises.Eveniftheseriskslookmodestandsomewhatvague,atsomepointFedofficialswilllikelybeconfidentenoughintheinflationpicturetojudgethattherisksarenotworthtaking.

y

2

_

24Ma2024

GoldmanSachs

USDaily

Exhibit1:WeExpectMonthlyCoreCPIInflationtoRunintheHigh20sonAverageandCorePCEintheLow20sintheRunUptotheSeptemberMeetingandThinkThatThisWouldBeEnoughforaRateCut

GSForecasts(%change)

3mannual.

3.42

3.93

3.18

3.65

2.81

3.37

2.46

3.13

FOMCmeeting

May31

June12

June12

June28

July11

July26

July31

August14

August30

September11September18

PCE

CPI

FOMCmeetingPCE

CPI

PCE

FOMCmeetingCPI

PCE

CPI

6mannual.

3.22

4.06

3.46

4.09

3.61

3.74

2.94

3.53

MoM

0.26

0.31

0.21

0.29

0.23

0.22

0.17

0.26

Apr.May

MayJuneJune

JulyJulyAug.

YoY

2.77

3.57

2.69

3.67

2.74

3.66

2.80

3.69

Period

Event

Date

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Thetimingofthefirstcutremainsadifficultquestionforafewreasons.

First,wecontinuetoseeratecutsasoptional,whichlessenstheurgency.

Second,inflationislikelytobemuchimprovedbySeptemberbuthardlyperfectandstillatayear-on-yearratethatmakescuttingalessthanobviousdecision.Weinterpreted

theMarchSummaryofEconomicProjections—whichshowedamedianofthreecutsalongsidea2.6%2024Q4/Q4rateofcorePCEinflation—asloweringthebarforacut,butwearenowontracktoovershootthatsomewhat.

Third,whiletheFedleadershipappearstoshareourrelaxedviewontheinflation

outlookandwilllikelybereadytocutbeforetoolong,anumberofFOMCparticipantsstillappeartobemoreconcernedaboutinflationandmorereluctanttocut.ThiswiderangeofviewsincreasestheuncertaintyaboutwhattheCommitteewouldchoosetodoevenifourinflationforecastturnsouttoberoughlyright.

DavidMericle

y

3

_

USDaily

GoldmanSachs

DisclosureAppendix

RegAC

We,JanHatzius,AlecPhillips,DavidMericle,SpencerHill,CFA,RonnieWalker,ManuelAbecasis,TimKrupa,ElsiePengandJessicaRindels,herebycertifythatalloftheviewsexpressedinthisreportaccuratelyreflectourpersonalviews,whichhavenotbeeninfluencedbyconsiderationsofthe

firm’sbusinessorclientrelationships.

Unlessotherwisestated,theindividualslistedonthecoverpageofthisreportareanalystsinGoldmanSachs’GlobalInvestmentResearchdivision.

Disclosures

Regulatorydisclosures

DisclosuresrequiredbyUnitedStateslawsandregulations

Seecompany-specificregulatorydisclosuresaboveforanyofthefollowingdisclosuresrequiredastocompaniesreferredtointhisreport:managerorco-managerinapendingtransaction;1%orotherownership;compensationforcertainservices;typesofclientrelationships;managed/co-managedpublicofferingsinpriorperiods;directorships;forequitysecurities,marketmakingand/orspecialistrole.GoldmanSachstradesormaytradeasa

principalindebtsecurities(orinrelatedderivatives)ofissuersdiscussedinthisreport.

Thefollowingareadditionalrequireddisclosures:Ownershipandmaterialconflictsofinterest:GoldmanSachspolicyprohibitsitsanalysts,professionalsreportingtoanalystsandmembersoftheirhouseholdsfromowningsecuritiesofanycompanyintheanalyst’sareaofcoverage.

Analystcompensation:AnalystsarepaidinpartbasedontheprofitabilityofGoldmanSachs,whichincludesinvestmentbankingrevenues.Analyst

asofficerordirector:GoldmanSachspolicygenerallyprohibitsitsanalysts,personsreportingtoanalystsormembersoftheirhouseholdsfromservingasanofficer,directororadvisorofanycompanyintheanalyst’sareaofcoverage.Non-U.S.Analysts:Non-U.S.analystsmaynotbe

associatedpersonsofGoldmanSachs&Co.LLCandthereforemaynotbesubjecttoFINRARule2241orFINRARule2242restrictionsoncommunicationswithsubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbytheanalysts.

AdditionaldisclosuresrequiredunderthelawsandregulationsofjurisdictionsotherthantheUnitedStates

Thefollowingdisclosuresarethoserequiredbythejurisdictionindicated,excepttotheextentalreadymadeabovepursuanttoUnitedStateslawsandregulations.Australia:GoldmanSachsAustraliaPtyLtdanditsaffiliatesarenotauthoriseddeposit-takinginstitutions(asthattermisdefinedinthe

BankingAct1959(Cth))inAustraliaanddonotprovidebankingservices,norcarryonabankingbusiness,inAustralia.Thisresearch,andanyaccesstoit,isintendedonlyfor“wholesaleclients”withinthemeaningoftheAustralianCorporationsAct,unlessotherwiseagreedbyGoldmanSachs.In

producingresearchreports,membersofGlobalInvestmentResearchofGoldmanSachsAustraliamayattendsitevisitsandothermeetingshostedbythecompaniesandotherentitieswhicharethesubjectofitsresearchreports.InsomeinstancesthecostsofsuchsitevisitsormeetingsmaybemetinpartorinwholebytheissuersconcernedifGoldmanSachsAustraliaconsidersitisappropriateandreasonableinthespecificcircumstancesrelatingtothesitevisitormeeting.Totheextentthatthecontentsofthisdocumentcontainsanyfinancialproductadvice,itisgeneraladviceonlyandhas

beenpreparedbyGoldmanSachswithouttakingintoaccountaclient’sobjectives,financialsituationorneeds.Aclientshould,beforeactingonany

suchadvice,considertheappropriatenessoftheadvicehavingregardtotheclient’sownobjectives,financialsituationandneeds.Acopyofcertain

GoldmanSachsAustraliaandNewZealanddisclosureofinterestsandacopyofGoldmanSachs’AustralianSell-SideResearchIndependencePolicyStatementareavailableat:

/disclosures/australia-new-zealand/index.html.Brazil:Disclosureinformationinrelationto

CVMResolutionn.20isavailableat

/worldwide/brazil/area/gir/index.html.Whereapplicable

,theBrazil-registeredanalystprimarilyresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreport,asdefinedinArticle20ofCVMResolutionn.20,isthefirstauthornamedatthebeginningofthisreport,unlessindicatedotherwiseattheendofthetext.Canada:Thisinformationisbeingprovidedtoyouforinformationpurposesonlyandisnot,andundernocircumstancesshouldbeconstruedas,anadvertisement,offeringorsolicitationbyGoldmanSachs&Co.LLCforpurchasersof

securitiesinCanadatotradeinanyCanadiansecurity.GoldmanSachs&Co.LLCisnotregisteredasadealerinanyjurisdictioninCanadaunder

applicableCanadiansecuritieslawsandgenerallyisnotpermittedtotradeinCanadiansecuritiesandmaybeprohibitedfromsellingcertainsecuritiesandproductsincertainjurisdictionsinCanada.IfyouwishtotradeinanyCanadiansecuritiesorotherproductsinCanadapleasecontactGoldman

SachsCanadaInc.,anaffiliateofTheGoldmanSachsGroupInc.,oranotherregisteredCanadiandealer.HongKong:Furtherinformationonthe

securitiesofcoveredcompaniesreferredtointhisresearchmaybeobtainedonrequestfromGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.India:FurtherinformationonthesubjectcompanyorcompaniesreferredtointhisresearchmaybeobtainedfromGoldmanSachs(India)SecuritiesPrivateLimited,Research

Analyst-SEBIRegistrationNumberINH000001493,951-A,RationalHouse,AppasahebMaratheMarg,Prabhadevi,Mumbai400025,India,CorporateIdentityNumberU74140MH2006FTC160634,Phone+912266169000,Fax+912266169001.GoldmanSachsmaybeneficiallyown1%ormoreofthesecurities(assuchtermisdefinedinclause2(h)theIndianSecuritiesContracts(Regulation)Act,1956)ofthesubjectcompanyorcompanies

referredtointhisresearchreport.Investmentinsecuritiesmarketaresubjecttomarketrisks.Readalltherelateddocumentscarefullybefore

investing.RegistrationgrantedbySEBIandcertificationfromNISMinnowayguaranteeperformanceoftheintermediaryorprovideanyassuranceofreturnstoinvestors.GoldmanSachs(India)SecuritiesPrivateLimitedInvestorGrievanceE-mail:india-client-support@.ComplianceOfficer:AnilRajput|Tel:+912266169000|Email:anil.m.rajput@.Japan:Seebelow.Korea:Thisresearch,andanyaccesstoit,isintendedonlyfor

“professionalinvestors”withinthemeaningoftheFinancialServicesandCapitalMarketsAct,unlessotherwiseagreedbyGoldmanSachs.Further

informationonthesubjectcompanyorcompaniesreferredtointhisresearchmaybeobtainedfromGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.,SeoulBranch.NewZealand:GoldmanSachsNewZealandLimitedanditsaffiliatesareneither“registeredbanks”nor“deposittakers”(asdefinedintheReserveBankofNewZealandAct1989)inNewZealand.Thisresearch,andanyaccesstoit,isintendedfor“wholesaleclients”(asdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersAct2008)unlessotherwiseagreedbyGoldmanSachs.AcopyofcertainGoldmanSachsAustraliaandNewZealanddisclosureofinterestsisavailableat:

/disclosures/australia-new-zealand/index.html.Russia:ResearchreportsdistributedintheRussianFederationarenot

advertisingasdefinedintheRussianlegislation,butareinformationandanalysisnothavingproductpromotionastheirmainpurposeanddonot

provideappraisalwithinthemeaningoftheRussianlegislationonappraisalactivity.ResearchreportsdonotconstituteapersonalizedinvestmentrecommendationasdefinedinRussianlawsandregulations,arenotaddressedtoaspecificclient,andarepreparedwithoutanalyzingthefinancial

circumstances,investmentprofilesorriskprofilesofclients.GoldmanSachsassumesnoresponsibilityforanyinvestmentdecisionsthatmaybetakenbyaclientoranyotherpersonbasedonthisresearchreport.Singapore:GoldmanSachs(Singapore)Pte.(CompanyNumber:198602165W),whichisregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingapore,acceptslegalresponsibilityforthisresearch,andshouldbecontactedwithrespecttoanymatters

arisingfrom,orinconnectionwith,thisresearch.Taiwan:Thismaterialisforreferenceonlyandmustnotbereprintedwithoutpermission.Investorsshouldcarefullyconsidertheirowninvestmentrisk.Investmentresultsaretheresponsibilityoftheindividualinvestor.UnitedKingdom:PersonswhowouldbecategorizedasretailclientsintheUnitedKingdom,assuchtermisdefinedintherulesoftheFinancialConductAuthority,shouldreadthis

researchinconjunctionwithpriorGoldmanSachsresearchonthecoveredcompaniesreferredtohereinandshouldrefertotheriskwarningsthathavebeensenttothembyGoldmanSachsInternational.Acopyoftheseriskswarnings,andaglossaryofcertainfinancialtermsusedinthisreport,are

availablefromGoldmanSachsInternationalonrequest.

EuropeanUnionandUnitedKingdom:DisclosureinformationinrelationtoArticle6(2)oftheEuropeanCommissionDelegatedRegulation(EU)

24May20244

_

USDaily

GoldmanSachs

(2016/958)supplementingRegulation(EU)No596/2014oftheEuropeanParliamentandoftheCouncil(includingasthatDelegatedRegulationis

implementedintoUnitedKingdomdomesticlawandregulationfollowingtheUnitedKingdom’sdeparturefromtheEuropeanUnionandtheEuropeanEconomicArea)withregardtoregulatorytechnicalstandardsforthetechnicalarrangementsforobjectivepresentationofinvestment

recommendationsorotherinformationrecommendingorsuggestinganinvestmentstrategyandfordisclosureofparticularinterestsorindicationsofconflictsofinterestisavailableat

/disclosures/europeanpolicy.htmlwhichstatestheEuropeanPolicyforManagingCon

flictsof

InterestinConnectionwithInvestmentResearch.

Japan:GoldmanSachsJapanCo.,Ltd.isaFinancialInstrumentDealerregisteredwiththeKantoFinancialBureauunderregistrationnumberKinsho69,andamemberofJapanSecuritiesDealersAssociation,FinancialFuturesAssociationofJapanTypeIIFinancialInstrumentsFirmsAssociation,The

InvestmentTrustsAssociation,Japan,andJapanInvestmentAdvisersAssociation.Salesandpurchaseofequitiesaresubjecttocommission

pre-determinedwithclientsplusconsumptiontax.Seecompany-specificdisclosuresastoanyapplicabledisclosuresrequiredbyJapanesestockexchanges,theJapaneseSecuritiesDealersAssociationortheJapaneseSecuritiesFinanceCompany.

Globalproduct;distributingentities

GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchproducesanddistributesresearchproductsforclientsofGoldmanSachsonaglobalbasis.AnalystsbasedinGoldmanSachsofficesaroundtheworldproduceresearchonindustriesandcompanies,andresearchonmacroeconomics,currencies,commoditiesandportfoliostrategy.ThisresearchisdisseminatedinAustraliabyGoldmanSachsAustraliaPtyLtd(ABN21006797897);inBrazilbyGoldmanSachsdoBrasilCorretoradeTítuloseValoresMobiliáriosS.A.;PublicCommunicationChannelGoldmanSachsBrazil:08007275764and/or

contatogoldmanbrasil@.AvailableWeekdays(exceptholidays),from9amto6pm.CanaldeComunicaçãocomoPúblicoGoldmanSachsBrasil:08007275764e/oucontatogoldmanbrasil@.Horáriodefuncionamento:segunda-feiraàsexta-feira(excetoferiados),das9hàs18h;inCanadabyGoldmanSachs&Co.LLC;inHongKongbyGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.;inIndiabyGoldmanSachs(India)SecuritiesPrivateLtd.;inJapanby

GoldmanSachsJapanCo.,Ltd.;intheRepublicofKoreabyGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.,SeoulBranch;inNewZealandbyGoldmanSachsNew

ZealandLimited;inRussiabyOOOGoldmanSachs;inSingaporebyGoldmanSachs(Singapore)Pte.(CompanyNumber:198602165W);andinthe

UnitedStatesofAmericabyGoldmanSachs&Co.LLC.GoldmanSachsInternationalhasapprovedthisresearchinconnectionwithitsdistributionintheUnitedKingdom.

GoldmanSachsInternational(“GSI”),authorisedbythePrudentialRegulationAuthority(“PRA”)andregulatedbytheFinancialConductAuthority(“FCA”)andthePRA,hasapprovedthisresearchinconnectionwithitsdistributionintheUnitedKingdom.

EuropeanEconomicArea:GSI,authorisedbythePRAandregulatedbytheFCAandthePRA,disseminatesresearchinthefollowingjurisdictionswithintheEuropeanEconomicArea:theGrandDuchyofLuxembourg,Italy,theKingdomofBelgium,theKingdomofDenmark,theKingdomof

Norway,theRepublicofFinlandandtheRepublicofIreland;GSI-SuccursaledeParis(Parisbranch)whichisauthorisedbytheFrenchAutoritéde

contrôleprudentieletderesolution(“ACPR”)andregulatedbytheAutoritédecontrôleprudentieletderesolutionandtheAutoritédesmarches

financiers(“AMF”)disseminatesresearchinFrance;GSI-SucursalenEspaña(Madridbranch)authorizedinSpainbytheComisiónNacionaldel

MercadodeValoresdisseminatesresearchintheKingdomofSpain;GSI-SwedenBankfilial(Stockholmbranch)isauthorizedbytheSFSAasa“thirdcountrybranch”inaccordancewithChapter4,Section4oftheSwedishSecuritiesandMarketAct(Sw.lag(2007:528)omvärdepappersmarknaden)

disseminatesresearchintheKingdomofSweden;GoldmanSachsBankEuropeSE(“GSBE”)isacreditinstitutionincorporatedinGermanyand,withintheSingleSupervisoryMechanism,subjecttodirectprudentialsupervisionbytheEuropeanCentralBankandinotherrespectssupervisedbyGermanFederalFinancialSupervisoryAuthority(BundesanstaltfürFinanzdienstleistungsaufsicht,BaFin)andDeutscheBundesbankanddisseminatesresearchintheFederalRepublicofGermanyandthosejurisdictionswithintheEuropeanEconomicAreawhereGSIisnotauthorisedtodisseminateresearch

andadditionally,GSBE,CopenhagenBranchfilialafGSBE,Tyskland,supervisedbytheDanishFinancialAuthoritydisseminatesresearchintheKingdomofDenmark;GSBE-SucursalenEspaña(Madridbranch)subject(toalimitedextent)tolocalsupervisionbytheBankofSpaindisseminatesresearchintheKingdomofSpain;GSBE-SuccursaleItalia(Milanbranch)totherelevantapplicableextent,subjecttolocalsupervisionbytheBankofItaly(Bancad’Italia)andtheItalianCompaniesandExchangeCommission(CommissioneNazionaleperleSocietàelaBorsa“Consob”)disseminatesresearchin

Italy;GSBE-SuccursaledeParis(Parisbranch),supervisedbytheAMFandbytheACPRdisseminatesresearchinFrance;andGSBE-SwedenBankfilial(Stockholmbranch),toalimitedextent,subjecttolocalsupervisionbytheSwedishFinancialSupervisoryAuthority(Finansinpektionen)disseminatesresearchintheKingdomofSweden.

Generaldisclosures

Thisresearchisforourclientsonly.OtherthandisclosuresrelatingtoGoldmanSachs,thisresearchisbasedoncurrentpublicinformationthatwe

considerreliable,butwedonotrepresentitisaccurateorcomplete,anditshouldnotbereliedonassuch.Theinformation,opinions,estimatesandforecastscontainedhereinareasofthedatehereofandaresubjecttochangewithoutpriornotification.Weseektoupdateourresearchas

appropriate,butvariousregulationsmaypreventusfromdoingso.Otherthancertainindustryreportspublishedonaperiodicbasis,thelargemajorityofreportsarepublishedatirregularintervalsasappropriateintheanalyst’sjudgment.

GoldmanSachsconductsaglobalfull-service,integratedinvestmentbanking,investmentmanagement,andbrokeragebusiness.WehaveinvestmentbankingandotherbusinessrelationshipswithasubstantialpercentageofthecompaniescoveredbyGlobalInvestmentResearch.GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC,theUnitedStatesbrokerdealer,isamemberofSIPC().

Oursalespeople,traders,andotherprofessionalsmayprovideoralorwrittenmarketcommentaryortradingstrategiestoourclientsandprincipal

tradingdesksthatreflectopinionsthatarecontrarytotheopinionsexpressedinthisresearch.Ourassetmanagementarea,principaltradingdesksandinvestingbusinessesmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisresearch.

Weandouraffiliates,officers,directors,andemployeeswillfromtimetotimehavelongorshortpositionsin,actasprincipalin,andbuyorsell,thesecuritiesorderivatives,ifany,referredtointhisresearch,unlessotherwiseprohibitedbyregulationorGoldmanSachspolicy.

TheviewsattributedtothirdpartypresentersatGoldmanSachsarrangedconferences,includingindividualsfromotherpartsofGoldmanSachs,donotnecessarilyreflectthoseofGlobalInvestmentResearc