UBS Equities-Global Strategy -USEU Credit Default and Recovery Rate Analysis – April -此为英文文档

ab

GlobalResearchandEvidenceLab9May2024

GlobalStrategy

US/EUCreditDefaultandRecoveryRateAnalysis–April2024

IntheAprilUS/EUCreditDefaultandRecoveryRateAnalysis,weupdatemonthlydefaultstatisticscoveringissuersinthefollowingmarkets:USHYbonds,USLeveragedLoans,EuropeanHYbondsandEuropeanLeveragedLoans.Wealsomarktomarketour2024YEdefaultforecastforUSHYandUSLLmarkets.

KeyTakeaways:

1.Wereviseour2024year-enddefaultforecastsgivenrecentmarketconditions(Figure2):WeareseeingdivergenceinUSHYandUSLLmarketsintermsofdefaultactivitiesunderthecurrenthigherforlongerbackdropwhereweseemoredefaultsinUSLLmarket.Thisismoderatelynegativeforloanswherefloatingcouponsareimpactedbyhigherrates.WealsoobservethatinUSHY,defaultsaremoreprevalentamongstsmallercompanies.Toreflectthesedevelopments,wemarktomarketourdefaultforecastsfor2024year-endandtakeUSHYpardefaultrate50bplowerto1.5%;USLLissuer/pardefaultrates50/100bphigherto4.0/3.5%,respectively.

2.USLLdefaultactivityishighercomparedtoUSHY(Figures5&6,10&11):AprilagainsawtwoUSHYissuerdefaults(Figure7):RAX(distressedexchange)andNDN(bankruptcy);however,thereweresixUSLLissuerdefaults,yetagainmatchingthehighestmonthlytotalsince2020(Figure12):CVON(bankruptcy),CTYBRW(distressedexchange),EYEPAR(distressedexchange),EREWDS(missedpayment),BARXPL(missedpayment),LUINCO(restructuring).TheLTMUSHYissuerdefaultrateisunchanged(2.7%),butpardefaultratesmovedhigherslightly(+0.1to1.1%).InUSLL,boththeLTMUSLLissuer/parratesarehigher(+0.2/+0.4%to3.3/2.9%).

3.DefaultactivitycontinuestobesubduedinEurope(Figures15&16,20&21):

AprilsawoneissuerdefaultintheEuropeanHYmarket(Figures17):THAMES(missedpayment)whiletherewasalsoonedefaultintheEULLmarket(Figure22):LUINCO(restructuring).EUHYissuer/pardefaultratesarelower/unchanged(-0.2/0.0%to1.4/1.1%respectively)whileEULLissuer/pardefaultratesremainunchanged/lower(0.0/-0.1%to1.5/1.0%).

4.Recoveryratesaredeterioratingacrossmarkets(Figure8,13,18,23):Afterpostinghigherrecoveryratesinrecentmonthsfromthe2023troughs,Aprilsawmostlylowerrecoveryrates,bringingLTMrecoveryratesat43/45/25/31%(0/-3/-2/-8%)acrossUSHY/USLL/EUHY/EULLmarkets.WehighlightthatLLmarketssawhigherrecoveryratescomparedtotheirHYcounterpartsineachregion.

5.Leadingindicatorsfordefaultsareonbalanceneutralinrecentmonths(Figure3&4):WehighlightthatdistressedratiosinUSHY/USLLaremostlyrangeboundsinceearlierthisyear.Themostrecentseniorloanofficersurveywasalsorelativelyunchangedfrompreviousreading.Allthesepointtorelativelyrangeboundenvironmentfordefaults,wedonotexpectsuddensurgeinupcomingmonths.

Reportnotes:

•Defaultcriteria:bankruptcies,distressedexchanges,restructuringandmissedpaymentswherefinancialimpairmenthasoccurred.

•Recoveryrate:basedonpricesobservedonthedateofdefault.

GlobalStrategy

Global

YounghoonKim

Strategist

younghoon.kim@+1-212-713-2307

MatthewMish,CFA

Strategist

matthew.mish@+1-203-7191242

JulienConzano

Strategist

julien.conzano@+44-20-75672067

JamesMartin

Strategist

james.martin@+1-212-7137960

BhanuBaweja

Strategist

bhanu.baweja@+44-20-75686833

ThisreporthasbeenpreparedbyUBSSecuritiesLLC.ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDREQUIREDDISCLOSURES,includinginformationontheQuantitativeResearchReviewpublishedbyUBS,beginonpage10.

GlobalStrategy9May2024ab3

USHighYield

Figure5:USHYTrailing12-MonthIssuerDefaultRate

14%

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2.7%

2%

0%

2006200820102012201420162018202020222024

Trailing12-MonthIssuerDefaultRate(%)

Source:CreditSuisseIndices,UBS

Figure7:USHYMonthlyDefaultCount

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Jan-20

Mar-20

May-20

Jul-20

Sep-20

Nov-20

Jan-21

Mar-21

May-21

Jul-21

Sep-21

Nov-21

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

Jan-24

Mar-24

12

9

8

7

6

666

5

4

4

4

33

22

11111

22

2

222

22222

11

1

1111

0000000000000

USDHYMonthlyDefaultCount

Source:CreditSuisseIndices,UBS

Figure6:USHYTrailing12-MonthParDefaultRate

14%

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

1

.1%

2%

0%

2006200820102012201420162018202020222024

Trailing12-MonthParDefaultRate(%)

Source:CreditSuisseIndices,UBS

Figure8:USHYTrailing12-MonthRecoveryRate

43%

70%

65%

60%

55%

50%

45%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

2006200820102012201420162018202020222024

Trailing12-MonthRecoveryRate(%)

Source:CreditSuisseIndices,UBS

Figure9:USHYIssuerDefaultsOverPast12Months

GlobalStrategy9May2024ab4

DateofDefault

Issuer

Reason

DefaultedAmount($mm)

2024-04-11

RACKSPACETECHNOLOGY

DISTRESSEDEXCHANGE

500

2024-04-08

99CENTSONLYSTORESLLC

BANKRUPTCY

350

2024-03-22

LUMENTECHNOLOGIESINC

DISTRESSEDEXCHANGE

1,250

2024-03-12

ENVIVAPARTNERSLP/FINC

BANKRUPTCY

750

2024-02-20

GOTOGROUPINC

DISTRESSEDEXCHANGE

300

2024-02-04

CANOHEALTHLLC

BANKRUPTCY

412

2024-01-07

AUDACYCAPITALCORP

BANKRUPTCY

1,000

2023-11-08

CWTTRAVELGROUPINC

DISTRESSEDEXCHANGE

625

2023-11-03

TACORARESOURCESINC

MISSEDCOUPON

225

2023-10-25

CLUBCORPHOLDINGSINC

DISTRESSEDEXCHANGE

315

2023-10-24

AIRMETHODSCORP

BANKRUPTCY

500

2023-10-22

AKUMININC

BANKRUPTCY

850

2023-10-15

RITEAIDCORP

BANKRUPTCY

850

2023-08-30

CARVANACO

DISTRESSEDEXCHANGE

205

2023-08-28

MALLINCKRODTFIN/SB

BANKRUPTCY

1,473

2023-08-07

WESTERNGLOBALAIRLINES

BANKRUPTCY

400

2023-07-20

USRENALCAREINC

DISTRESSEDEXCHANGE

344

2023-07-07

EXELAINTERMED/EXELAFIN

DISTRESSEDEXCHANGE

1,271

2023-06-21

PHOTOHOLDINGSMERGERSU

DISTRESSEDEXCHANGE

750

2023-06-01

WESCOAIRCRAFTHOLDINGS

BANKRUPTCY

525

2023-06-01

DIEBOLDNIXDORFINC

BANKRUPTCY

718

2023-05-14

VENATORFINSARL/VENATOR

BANKRUPTCY

600

2023-05-12

ATHOMEGROUPINC

DISTRESSEDEXCHANGE

447

2023-05-02

LANNETTCOINC

BANKRUPTCY

350

2023-05-01

WEWORKCOSINC

DISTRESSEDEXCHANGE

173

Source:CreditSuisseIndices,UBS

GlobalStrategy9May2024ab5

USLeveragedLoans

Figure10:USLLTrailing12-MonthIssuerDefaultRate

3.3%

9%

8%

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

2006200820102012201420162018202020222024

Trailing12-MonthIssuerDefaultRate(%)

Source:CreditSuisseIndices,UBS

Figure12:USLLMonthlyDefaultCount

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Jan-20

Mar-20

May-20

Jul-20

Sep-20

Nov-20

Jan-21

Mar-21

May-21

Jul-21

Sep-21

Nov-21

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

Jan-24

Mar-24

15

12

8

5555

444444

3333

2222222

1111111111111

0000000000

66666

USDLoanMonthlyDefaultCount

Source:CreditSuisseIndices,UBS

Figure11:USLLTrailing12-MonthParDefaultRate

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2.9%

2%

0%

2006200820102012201420162018202020222024

Trailing12-MonthParDefaultRate(%)

Source:CreditSuisseIndices,UBS

Figure13:USLLTrailing12-MonthRecoveryRate

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

50%

45%

31%

2006200820102012201420162018202020222024

Trailing12MRecoveryRate(%)

Trailing12MFirstLienRecoveryRate(%)

Trailing12MSecondLienRecoveryRate(%)

Source:CreditSuisseIndices,UBS

Figure14:USLeveragedLoanIssuerDefaultsOverPast12Months

GlobalStrategy9May2024ab6

DateofDefault

Company

Reason

DefaultedAmount($mm)

2024-04-30

Heubach

RESTRUCTURING

610

2024-04-30

Xplornet

MISSEDPAYMENT

1,195

2024-04-24

CityBrewing

DISTRESSEDEXCHANGE

850

2024-04-24

EyecarePartners

DISTRESSEDEXCHANGE

1,740

2024-04-20

ResearchNow

MISSEDPAYMENT

1,195

2024-04-04

ConvergeOne

BANKRUPTCY

1,385

2024-03-22

CenturyLink

DISTRESSEDEXCHANGE

3,941

2024-03-20

AspectSoftware

DISTRESSEDEXCHANGE

860

2024-03-18

Jo-AnnStores

BANKRUPTCY

635

2024-03-12

RackspaceHosting

DISTRESSEDEXCHANGE

2,300

2024-02-27

ApexToolGroup

DISTRESSEDEXCHANGE

855

2024-02-26

AvisonYoung

MISSEDPAYMENT

325

2024-02-15

Robertshaw

BANKRUPTCY

620

2024-02-14

LogMeIn

DISTRESSEDEXCHANGE

2,250

2024-02-05

CanoHealth

BANKRUPTCY

644

2024-02-02

Petmate

MISSEDPAYMENT

525

2024-01-31

Mobileum

MISSEDPAYMENT

540

2024-01-22

Careismatic

BANKRUPTCY

715

2024-01-07

Entercom/CBSRadio

BANKRUPTCY

675

2024-01-03

AmericanMedicalTechnologies

MISSEDPAYMENT

280

2023-12-04

StrategicMaterials

BANKRUPTCY

235

2023-11-27

QuorumHealth

DISTRESSEDEXCHANGE

732

2023-11-01

Restricted

DISTRESSEDEXCHANGE

338

2023-10-24

AirMethods

BANKRUPTCY

1,187

2023-10-15

OutputServicesGroup

BANKRUPTCY

180

2023-09-21

WheelPros

DISTRESSEDEXCHANGE

1,175

2023-08-28

MallinckrodtPharmaceuticals

BANKRUPTCY

1,763

2023-08-07

YRCWorldwide

BANKRUPTCY

581

2023-07-20

USRenalCare

DISTRESSEDEXCHANGE

1,825

2023-07-17

Wawona&Gerawan

MISSEDCOUPON

335

2023-07-14

JuicePlus+

RESTRUCTURING

366

2023-06-12

WKIHolding

BANKRUPTCY

450

2023-06-08

LuckyBucks

BANKRUPTCY

500

2023-06-07

U.S.TelePacific

DISTRESSEDEXCHANGE

655

2023-06-04

CyxteraTechnologies

BANKRUPTCY

797

2023-06-01

GenesisCare

BANKRUPTCY

350

2023-06-01

Diebold

BANKRUPTCY

393

2023-05-26

CIBT

DISTRESSEDEXCHANGE

339

2023-05-22

LifeScan

DISTRESSEDEXCHANGE

275

2023-05-15

EnvisionHealthcare

BANKRUPTCY

4,059

2023-05-14

Venator

BANKRUPTCY

375

2023-05-14

MonitronicsInternational

BANKRUPTCY

823

Source:CreditSuisseIndices,UBS

EuropeanHighYield

Figure15:EuropeanHYTrailing12-MonthParDefaultRate

1.1%

9%

8%

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

2006200820102012201420162018202020222024

Trailing12-MonthParDefaultRate(%)

Source:CreditSuisseIndices,UBS

Figure17:EuropeanHYMonthlyDefaultCount

5

4

3

2

1

0

Jan-20

Mar-20

May-20

Jul-20

Sep-20

Nov-20

Jan-21

Mar-21

May-21

Jul-21

Sep-21

Nov-21

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

Jan-24

Mar-24

4

3

2

22

1111111

1111111111

000000000000000000000000000000

EuropeanHYMonthlyDefaultCount

Source:CreditSuisseIndices,UBS

Figure16:EuropeanHYTrailing12-MonthIssuerDefaultRate

5%

4%

3%

2%

1.4%

1%

0%

2018201920202021202220232024

Trailing12-MonthIssuerDefaultRate(%)

Source:CreditSuisseIndices,UBS

Figure18:EuropeanHYTrailing12-MonthRecoveryRate

25%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

2006200820102012201420162018202020222024

Trailing12-MonthRecoveryRate(%)

Source:CreditSuisseIndices,UBS

Figure19:EuropeanHYIssuerDefaultsOverPast12Months

DateofDefault

Issuer

Reason

DefaultedAmount(€mm)

2024-04-05

THAMESWATERKEMBLEFINA

MISSEDCOUPON

466

2024-03-22

LAFINACATALIANSA

DISTRESSEDEXCHANGE

1,221

2023-12-22

SIGNADEVELOPMENTFIN

BANKRUPTCY

300

2023-11-03

METALCORPGROUPSA

RESTRUCTURING

300

2023-10-05

CASINOGUICHARDPERRACH

RESTRUCTURING

3,591

2023-09-15

IDEALSTANDARDINTLSA

DISTRESSEDEXCHANGE

322

2023-06-01

DIEBOLDNIXDORF

BANKRUPTCY

260

Source:CreditSuisseIndices,UBS

GlobalStrategy9May2024ab7

Jan-20

Mar-20

May-20

Jul-20

Sep-20

Nov-20

Jan-21

Mar-21

May-21

Jul-21

Sep-21

Nov-21

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

Jan-24

Mar-24

4

4

3

22

2

1

111

1

1

11

1

0000

0

00000000000

00000

000000000

0

000

0

0

0

EuropeanLeveragedLoans

Figure20:EuropeanLLTrailing12-MonthParDefaultRate

1.0%

9%

8%

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

2006200820102012201420162018202020222024

Trailing12-MonthParDefaultRate

Source:CreditSuisseIndices,UBS

Figure22:EuropeanLLMonthlyDefaultCount

5

11

111

EuropeanLoanMonthlyDefaultCount

Source:CreditSuisseIndices,UBS

Figure21:EuropeanLLTrailing12-MonthIssuerDefaultRate

1.5%

16%

14%

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

2006200820102012201420162018202020222024

Trailing12-MonthIssuerDefaultRate(%)

Source:CreditSuisseIndices,UBS

Figure23:EuropeanLLTrailing12-MonthRecoveryRate

31%

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

200720092011201320152017201920212023

Trailing12-MonthRecoveryRate

Source:CreditSuisseIndices,UBS

Figure24:EuropeanLeveragedLoanIssuerDefaultsOverPast12Months

DateofDefault

Company

Reason

DefaultedAmount(€mm)

568

353

530

290

1,425

1,276

2024-04-30

Heubach

RESTRUCTURING

2024-02-01

AmphoraFinance

RESTRUCTURING

2023-12-21

WitturHolding

RESTRUCTURING

2023-11-30

Praesidiad

RESTRUCTURING

2023-10-05

CasinoGuichardPerrachon

RESTRUCTURING

2023-06-01

GenesisSpecialistCareFinanceUK

BANKRUPTCY

Source:CreditSuisseIndices,UBS

GlobalStrategy9May2024ab8

GlobalStrategy9May2024ab9

ValuationMethodandRiskStatement

Risksofmulti-assetinvestingincludebutarenotlimitedtomarketrisk,creditrisk,interestrate

risk,andforeignexchangerisk.Correlationsofreturnsamongdifferentassetclassesmay

deviatefromhistoricalpatterns.Geopoliticaleventsandpolicyshocksposerisksthatcan

reduceassetreturns.Valuationsmaybeadverselyaffectedduringtimesofhighmarket

volatility,thinliquidity,andeconomicdislocation.

GlobalStrategy9May2024ab10

RequiredDisclosures

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GlobalStrategy9May2024ab11

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