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NO.298
MAY
2024
ADBBRIEFS
KEYPOINTS
•Buildingresilientand
responsiblesupplychains
forcriticalmineralsis
strategicallyimportantgiventhetime-boundglobal
goalsoftriplingrenewable
energycapacityanddoublingenergyefficiencyby2030
undertheUnitedArab
EmiratesConsensus(UAEConsensus)adoptedatthe28thConferenceofthe
Parties(COP28).
•Tomeetthegrowingdemandofcleanenergytechnology,
criticalmineralswillhaveto
besustainablysourcedand
processedatunprecedentedscaleandspeedoverthenextfewdecades.
•Fortheresource-rich
countriestoseizeemergingopportunities,criticalmineralproductionandprocessing
mustbeintegratedwith
globalandregionalsupplychainsforcleanenergy
manufacturing.This
requirescreatingbusiness-andinvestment-friendly
environmentstoattractinvestmentandpromotedomesticvalueadditionbeyondmining.
•Regionalcooperationand
engagementbymultilateralorganizationscanhelp
unlockopportunitiesandaidresponsibleandsustainable
environmentalresourcemanagement.
ISBN978-92-9270-690-6(print)
ISBN978-92-9270-691-3(PDF)
ISSN2071-7202(print)
ISSN2218-2675(PDF)
PublicationStockNo.BRF240251-2
DOI:
/10.22617/BRF240251-2
BuildingResilientandResponsibleCriticalMineralsSupplyChains
fortheCleanEnergyTransition
Cyn-YoungPark
Director,RegionalCooperationand
IntegrationandTradeDivisionClimateChangeandSustainable
DevelopmentDepartment
AsianDevelopmentBank
AnnaCassandraMelendez
Consultant,RegionalCooperationandIntegrationandTradeDivision
ClimateChangeandSustainableDevelopmentDepartment
AsianDevelopmentBank
CRITICALMINERALSFORTHECLEANENERGYTRANSITION
Thedramaticshiftfromfossilfuelstocleanenergyhastrainedaspotlightonthevitalroleofmineralsandmineral-dependentsupplychainsintheenergytransition.Comparedwithfossilfuel-basedtechnologies,cleanenergytechnologiesarefarmoremineral-intensive
throughouttheirlifecycles(Figure1).
Aslow-carbontechnologiesrelyheavilyonmineralinputs,demandformineralsrequiredforthecleanenergytransitionisexpectedtorisedramatically.Meetingthisdemandis
ofstrategicimportancetoall.Althoughnostandarddefinitionofacriticalmineralexists,somemineralscanbeconsideredcriticalgiventheirimportanceinaparticularsetting
(inthiscase,theenergytransition),availabilityandabundance,andsubstitutability.
TheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)definescriticalmineralsasthosebothessentialtotheenergytransitionandwhosesupplymaybedisruptedbymarketshocksorgeopoliticalevents.TheIEA’sCriticalMineralsDataExplorer(IEA2023a)listsnearly40minerals
essentialforcleanenergytechnologies.
Note:ADBrecognizes“America”astheUnitedStatesand“China”asthePeople’sRepublicofChina.
2
ADBBRIEFSNO.298
Figure1:MineralsUsedinCleanEnergyTechnologiesComparedtoOtherPowerGenerationSources,2021
(kilogramspermegawattcapacity)
Offshorewind
Onshorewind
SolarPV
Nuclear
Coal
Naturalgas
02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,000
kg/MW
CopperNickelManganeseCobaltChromiumMolybdenumZincRareearthelements
16,00018,000
SiliconOthers
kg/MW=kilogrampermegawatt,PV=photovoltaic.
Source:InternationalEnergyAgency.2021.
/data-and-statistics/charts/minerals-used-in-clean-energy-technologies-compared-to-
other-power-generation-sources
.
Figure2matchescriticalmineralstoselectedcleanenergytechnologiesinwhichtheyareneeded.
TheWorldBank(2020)hasdevelopedaframeworkforclassifyingcriticalmineralsintodifferentcategoriesofdemandrisk,dependingonprojecteddemandforarangeofcleanenergytechnologies.Theclassificationframeworkhasfourmaincategoriesofcriticalminerals:
(i)High-impactandcross-cuttingminerals:includeminerals,suchasaluminum,thatwillbeusedinawiderangeof
technologiesandfaceasignificantincreaseinproductiontomeettheprojecteddemandinthecleanenergytransition.
(ii)High-impactminerals:includecobalt,graphite,andlithiumwhichareconcentratedinspecifictechnologies,butare
expectedtoexperiencesignificantincreasesinrelativedemand,drivenlargelybyenergystorageneeds.
(iii)Medium-impactminerals:includecertainrareearth
elements(REEs)whichmaynotbeusedinawiderange
oftechnologies,butareessentialforspecifictechnologies.Theseareexpectedtofaceamoderateincreaseindemand.
(iv)Cross-cuttingminerals:includecopperandnickelwhichare
usedacrossawiderangeoftechnologiesandconsideredasfundamentalelementsfortheenergytransition.
Thispolicybriefprovidesanoverviewofstrategicpolicyissuessurroundingcriticalmineralssupplychainsthatwillhavetobeconsideredinplanningsupportforthecleanenergytransition.
Theanalysisfocusesonsixcriticalmineralsfortheenergytransition:
copper,cobalt,graphite,lithium,nickel,andREEs.1Thesemineralsareselectedbasedontheirimportanceforcleanenergytechnologies,
projecteddemand,andvulnerabilitiestosupplyshocks.Copperisanessentialcomponentofwiringinelectricalnetworksandallelectricity-relatedtechnologies,includingpowergrids.Cobalt,graphite,and
lithiumarekeycomponentsofbatteriesforelectricvehicles(EVs)andenergystoragesystems.NickelisnecessaryforEVs,energystorage,
solarandwindenergy,otherlow-emissionspowergeneration,and
hydrogentechnologies.REEsarevitalforpermanentmagnetsused
inEVsandwindturbines(IEA2021,2023a,2023b).Inthefollowingsections,thebriefreviewskeymarkettrendsandoutlooks,assesses
developmentconstraintsandrisks,takesstockofcountryexperiencesandpolicyresponses,andputsforwardpolicyrecommendations.
1TheREEsconsistof15elementsinthelanthanidesgroup,plusscandiumandyttrium.TheREEsneodymium,dysprosium,praseodymium,andterbiumareparticularlycriticalforcleanenergytechnologies(IEA2021).
3
BuildingResilientandResponsibleCriticalMineralsSupplyChainsfortheCleanEnergyTransition
Figure2:CriticalMineralsforSelectedCleanEnergyTechnologies
GeothermalHydroNuclearBioenergy
ElectricityNetworks
Concentrated
SolarHydrogen
WindPower
Solar
Photovoltaic
Electric
vehiclesa
Steel
CopperAluminum
Nickel
Zinc Dysprosium NeodymiumPraseodymium Silicon Terbium Cobalt Graphite Manganese Silver Cadmium Gallium Iridium Lithium PlatinumTellurium
Uranium
ImportanceLowtonone
●.High
aIncludesenergystorage.
Source:Exhibitfrom“
.%20"
Theraw-materialschallenge:Howthemetalsandminingsectorwillbeatthecoreofenablingtheenergy
transition,”January2022,McKinsey&Company,Copyright(c)2024McKinsey&Company.Allrightsreserved.Reprintedbypermission.
DEMANDANDSUPPLYPROJECTIONSFORCRITICALMINERALS
Availableestimatesoffuturedemandforcriticalmineralsvary
widelyduetodifferencesinthecoveredtechnologiesandminerals,methodologies,andassumptions.Regardlessofthesedifferences,
criticalmineralswillhavetobesourcedandprocessedatanunprecedentedscaleandspeedoverthenextfewdecadestoachievenet-zerotargets.
TheIEAhasdevelopedthreescenariosthatassumedifferentlevelsofambitionandalignmentwiththeParisAgreement:
(i)ThemoderateStatedPoliciesScenario(STEPS)includes
currentpoliciesorpoliciesthatgovernmentsaredeveloping.
(ii)TheAnnouncedPledgesScenario(APS)assumesalllong-termemissionsandenergyaccesspledgesarefullyimplemented
ontime.TheAPSlimitstemperatureriseto1.7°Cabovepreindustriallevelsin2100(witha50%probability).
(iii)TheNetZeroEmissionsby2050Scenario(NZE)isthemostambitiousscenarioofall.Itassumesevenfasterdeploymentofcleanenergytechnologiestolimitglobalwarmingto1.5°C(IEA2023b).2
Table1showstheestimateddemandforcriticalmineralsundereachofthethreescenarios,whileFigure3showsprojectedgrowthindemandrelativeto2022.Overthenext2–3decades,demandfortotalcriticalmineralsisexpectedtodoubleundertheSTEPS,morethantriple
undertheAPS,andmorethanquadrupleundertheambitiousNZE.Demandforrawmineralsisprojectedtocontinuetoincreaseuntil2050,whentheirrecyclingwillhavebecomemorecommonplace.
2SeetheCriticalMineralsDataExplorerMethodologicalNotesformoreinformation:
/assets/e3888347-21a4-4c30-97a7-
7075a3bc48f7/CMDataExplorerMethodology.pdf
.
4
ADBBRIEFSNO.298
Table1:MineralDemandforCleanEnergyTechnologiesbyMineral,2022,2030,2040,and2050
(kiloton/s)
Critical
Mineral
BaseYear
StatedPoliciesScenario
AnnouncedPledgesScenario
NetZeroEmissionsby2050
2022
2030
2040
2050
2030
2040
2050
2030
2040
2050
Copper
5,735.9
9,298.3
9,804.6
10,647.5
11,363.7
15,100.3
15,717.2
15,731.6
20,678.1
17,351.4
Cobalt
68.2
79.4
110.1
145.6
121.6
220.6
295.8
205.4
258.5
290.7
Graphite
587.0
1,697.6
1,957.8
1,322.6
2,604.6
4,056.9
2,980.9
4,449.9
5,353.4
3,468.2
Lithium
73.2
239.8
460.1
490.4
368.0
951.9
1,089.2
628.4
1,187.4
1,178.5
Nickel
456.7
1,381.3
2,046.4
1,867.0
2,131.9
3,765.3
3,882.7
3,452.2
4,344.8
3,764.0
REEs
12.7
29.0
34.6
44.3
40.1
69.7
84.3
65.0
69.1
72.2
Others
1,761.6
2,577.0
3,361.7
4,230.8
3,645.3
5,726.5
7,189.7
6,648.9
7,474.7
7,529.9
Total
8,695.2
15,302.4
17,775.3
18,748.2
20,275.1
29,891.2
31,239.8
31,181.4
39,366.0
33,654.9
REE=rareearthelement.
Source:AsianDevelopmentBankcalculationsusing
statistics/data-tools/critical-minerals-data-explorer
datafromtheInternationalEnergyAgencyCriticalMineralsDataExplorer.
/data-and-
(accessed11October2023).
Figure3:GrowthinDemandforSelectedMineralsfromCleanEnergyTechnologies,
byScenario—2022,2030,2040,and2050
(kiloton/s)
kt
50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
-
4.5x
39,366
3.9x
33,655
36x
36x
3.4x
.
.
31,240
31,181
29,891
2.3x
22x
20,275
20x
.
18,748
.
1.8x
17,775
15,302
8,695
203020402050203020402050203020402050
2022StatedPoliciesScenarioAnnouncedPledgesScenarioNetZeroEmissionsScenario
CopperCobaltGraphiteLithiumNickelREEsOthersTotalCriticalMinerals
kt=kiloton,REE=rareearthelement.
Note:Textinredshowsincreaseindemandindexedto2022.
Source:AsianDevelopmentBankcalculationsusingdatafromtheInternationalEnergyAgencyCriticalMineralsDataExplorer.
/data-
and-statistics/data-tools/critical-minerals-data-explorer
(accessed11October2023).
Thehugespikeindemandrelativeto2022undertheNZEscenariohighlightstheimportanceofactionoverthenextcoupleofdecades.Toachievenetzeroby2050,demandforlithiumwouldbeexpectedtoincreaserelativeto2022byasmuchas8.6times(8.6x)in2030,
16.2xin2040,and16.1xin2050.Nickelwouldhavethesecond-
largestjumpindemand,growingby7.6xin2030,9.5xin2040,
and8.2xin2050.Graphitecomesthirdwithprojecteddemand
increasingby7.6xin2030,9.1xin2040,and5.9xin2050(Table1).
5
BuildingResilientandResponsibleCriticalMineralsSupplyChainsfortheCleanEnergyTransition
Figure4showsprojecteddemandforeachcriticalmineralbytechnology
use.ThetrendsunderscoretheimportanceofEVsandbatterystorageaskeydriversofdemandgrowth.Theshifttolow-carbonpower
generationwillalsoincreasemineraldemand.Thesetrajectoriesandriskscouldeasilychangeinthefuture,dependingontechnological
developments,policychanges,andmarketandgeopoliticaldynamics.
Whileavailablereservesofcriticalmineralsarebelievedtobe
sufficienttomeetlong-termdemand(UnitedStatesGeological
Survey2023),shortfallsinafewmineralsareprojectedinthenearto
mediumterm.Figure5showstheIEA’slatestdataontheanticipatedsupply3ofselectedcriticalmineralsby2030andcomparesthese
againstthe2030projectedrequirementsundertheAPSandNZE
scenarios.In2030,cobaltisprojectedtobeinsurplusrelativetothe
APSbutwillfallshortofprojectedrequirementstoachievenetzeroby2050(NZE).Themedium-termanticipatedsupplyofcopper,lithium,andnickelwillfallshortofmeetingprojectedrequirementsunderbothscenarios.ThestarkestshortfallisforlithiumunderNZE(Figure5).
Figure4:MineralDemandforCleanEnergyTechnologiesbyMineralandTechnology,2022and2040
(kiloton/s)
kt
0
Copper
2022
2030
2040
2050
StatedPoliciesScenario
2030
2040
2050
AnnouncedPoliciesScenario
2030
2040
2050
NetZeroEmissionsScenario
ElectricvehiclesElectricitynetworksGridbatterystorage
HydrogentechnologiesSolarPVWind
Otherlow-emissionspowergeneration
Graphite
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
2022
2030
2040
2050
StatedPoliciesScenario
2030
2040
2050
Announced
PoliciesScenario
2030
2040
2050
NetZero
Emissions
Scenario
ElectricvehiclesElectricitynetworksGridbatterystorage
HydrogentechnologiesSolarPVWind
Low-emissionspowergeneration
kt
2022
2030
2040
2050
2030
2040
2050
2030
2040
2050
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
StatedPolicies
Announced
NetZero
Scenario
PoliciesScenario
EmissionsScenario
Cobalt
350
ElectricvehiclesElectricitynetworksGridbatterystorage
HydrogentechnologiesSolarPVWind
Low-emissionspowergeneration
kt
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2030
2040
2050
2030
2040
2050
2030
2040
2050
2022
StatedPoliciesScenario
Announced
PoliciesScenario
NetZero
EmissionsScenario
Lithium
ElectricvehiclesElectricitynetworksGridbatterystorage
HydrogentechnologiesSolarPVWind
Low-emissionspowergeneration
continuedonnextpage
3Anticipatedsupplytakesintoconsiderationproductionfromannouncedminingprojects.
6
ADBBRIEFSNO.298
Figure4:continued
Figure4:MineralDemandforCleanEnergyTechnologiesbyMineralandTechnology,2022and2040
(kiloton/s)
kt
2022
2030
2040
2050
2030
2040
2050
2030
2040
2050
0
Nickel
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
StatedPoliciesScenario
Announced
PoliciesScenario
NetZero
Emissions
Scenario
Electricvehicles
SolarPV
GridbatterystorageWind
HydrogentechnologiesOtherlow-emissions
powergeneration
Neodymium(REE)
kt
2022
2030
2040
2050
2030
2040
2050
2030
2040
2050
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
StatedPolicies
Announced
NetZero
Scenario
PoliciesScenario
EmissionsScenario
Electricvehicles
SolarPV
GridbatterystorageWind
HydrogentechnologiesOtherlow-emissions
powergeneration
kt=kiloton,PV=photovoltaic,REE=rareearthelement.
Source:AsianDevelopmentBankcalculationsusingdatafromtheInternationalEnergyAgencyCriticalMineralsDataExplorer.
/data-
and-statistics/data-tools/critical-minerals-data-explorer
(accessed11October2023).
Figure5:AnticipatedPrimaryProductionandSupplyRequirementsofSelectedMineralsfor2030intheAnnouncedPolicyScenarioandNetZeroEmissionsScenarios
Copper
Lithium
Nickel
Cobalt
Mt
40
30
20
10
2022
Anticipated
supply
APS
NZE
2030
ktLi
800
600
400
200
2022
Anticipated
supply
APS
NZE
2030
Mt
8
6
4
2
Anticipated
supply
APS
NZE
2022
2030
kt
400
300
200
100
2022
Anticipated
supply
APS
NZE
2030
APS=AnnouncedPolicyScenario,kt=kiloton,Mt=megatonne,NZE=NetZeroEmissionsby2050Scenario.
Source:IEACriticalMineralsMarketReview.2023.
/assets/afc35261-41b2-47d4-86d6-d5d77fc259be/
CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023.pdf
.
7
BuildingResilientandResponsibleCriticalMineralsSupplyChainsfortheCleanEnergyTransition
RISKSFACINGMINERAL-DEPENDENTCLEANTECHNOLOGYSUPPLYCHAINS
Mineral-dependentcleantechnologysupplychainsarehighly
complex(Figure6).Therelevantsupplychainscancovereverything
fromextractingrawmaterialstoimmediateprocessing,purification
andrefining,componentmanufacturingforcleanenergytechnologies,andrecyclingofmineralwastes.Thedynamicsineachstepofthe
supplychaincandiffergreatlyfromonecleantechnologytoanother.Supplychainsalsoinvolveextensiveglobalnetworksofsupplies,witheachsegmentofthechaintypicallyinvolvingmultipleproducers.
Usinglithiumasanexample,whereasthebiggestsourcesarefoundinLatinAmericaandAustralia,theprocessingandrefiningoflithiumtakesplaceinAsia.Oncerefined,lithiumisusedtomanufactureEVbatteriesinAsia,Europe,andtheUnitedStates(US)(Figure7).
Development
Mining-
Geological
resources
Metallurgy/refining
Oreprocessing
Smelting
andrefining
Endproduct
Manufacturing
Components
products
Figure6:SchematicRepresentationofaMineral-DependentSupplyChain
Exploration
Purification
Production
wastecollection
Preparation–dismantling,crushing,separation
Secondaryrecycling
Primaryrecycling
ProductionwasteProductionwasteEnd-of-life
1collectioncollectionproducts,waste
Semifinished
Source:Ayuketal.2020,citedinInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA).2023.GeopoliticsoftheEnergyTransitionCriticalMinerals.AbuDhabi.
/Publications/2023/Jul/Geopolitics-of-the-Energy-Transition-Critical-Materials
.
Figure7:SchematicRepresentationofaBatterySupplyChain
Li
Mine
Refinery
Batterymanufacturer
Recycler
Landfill
(variouslocations)
NiLi
Mn
Co
Ni
Co=cobalt;Li=lithium;Mn=manganese;Ni=nickel.
Source:S.Daran.d.TheLithiumSupplyChain.
/decentralizing-the-lithium-supply-chain
.
8
ADBBRIEFSNO.298
Despitetheircomplexity,mineral-dependentcleantechnology
supplychainsarehighlyconcentratedgeographically(Figure8).Attheupstreamside,afewproducers—mostlydevelopingcountries—arevitalformanycriticalminerals.TheDemocraticRepublicof
Congo(DRC)isthelargestproducerofcobaltandthethird-largestsourceofcopper.ThePeople’sRepublicofChina(PRC)isthe
biggestproducerofgraphiteandREEs,andthethird-biggestsourceoflithium.Indonesiaisamajorproducerofcobalt,copper,and
nickel.ThePhilippinesisamajorproducerofnickel.However,thebulkofextractedmineralsareexportedraw.
Geographicconcentrationisevenhigherintheprocessingstage,
withthePRCaccountingfor68%and73%ofglobalnickelandcobaltrefiningcapacity,and70%and85%ofglobalcathodesandanodes
productioncapacity,respectively(CastilloandPurdy2022).Indeed,
geographicconcentrationisseenthroughoutthesupplychainsof
cleanenergytechnologies(Figure9).Forexample,thePRC,Japan,andtheRepublicofKoreadominatethemidstreamsectionofthebatterymaterialssupplychain.ThePRCandIndiaarealsokeyplayersinwindturbinesandcomponentsalongsidetheUS,Spain,andGermany.
Meanwhile,thedownstreamsegmentisdominatedbyafewmatureplayersinthePRC,theUS,andtheEuropeanUnion(EU).
Figure8:LargestProducersandUsersofSelectedCriticalMineralsintheEnergyTransition
CleantechnologiesMiningProcessingBatterymaterialBatterycell/packEVdeployment
Copper
Chile
Peru
Chile
PRC
ROK
Japan
PRC
US
ROK
PRC
US
EU
PRC
Lithium
Chile
PRC
Chile
Australia
PolysiliconSolarpanelEVinstallation
Nickel
Cobalt
REEs
Indonesia
PRC
Indonesia
PRC
ROK
Germany
PRC
ROK
Canada
Philippines
EU
US
EU
US
PRC
Windinstallation
PRC
DRC
PRC
Windturbineandcomponents
PRC
PRC
PRC
India
US
Spain
Germany
DRC=DemocraticRepublicofCongo,EU=EuropeanUnion,EV=electricvehicle,PRC=People’sRepublicofChina,PV=photovoltaic,REE=rareearthelement,ROK=RepublicofKorea,US=UnitedStates.
Source:InternationalEnergyAgency.2021.TheRoleofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitions.Paris.
/reports/the-role-of-critical
-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions.
Figure9:ShareofTopThreeEconomiesinTotalProductionandProcessingofSelectedCriticalMinerals,2022
Extraction
Processing
Copper
Nickel
Cobalt
Lithium
Graphite
REEs
DRC
IndonesiaPhilippinesPRC
US
RussianFederation
Argentina
Chile
Japan
Mozambique
Peru
Finland
Canada
Zambia
Madagascar
Malaysia
Estonia
Australia
2019top3share
25%50%75%100%
50%
75%
25%
100%
Copper
Nickel
Cobalt
Lithium
Graphite
REEs
DRC=DemocraticRepublicofCongo,PRC=People’sRepublicofChina,US=UnitedStates,REE=rareearthelement.
Source:InternationalEnergyAgency.2023.CriticalMineralsMarketReview.2023.Paris.
/assets/afc35261-41b2-47d4
-86d6-d5d77fc259be/CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023.pdf.
VIE
9
BuildingResilientandResponsibleCriticalMineralsSupplyChainsfortheCleanEnergyTransition
Tradeflowsalsoreflecttheintricateconnectionsofcriticalmineralssupplychainsaroundtheworld(Figure10).Somedominantplayers,particularlythePRC,playanoutsizedroleinglobalsupplychainsforcriticalmineralsfromupstreamtodownstream.Forexample,the
DRCleadsglobalcobaltexports,with67%ofthismarket.ThePRCisthetopimporter,signifyingitscentralroleincobaltprocessingalongwithotherkeyplayersliketheUSandBelgium.ThePRCisalsothe
largestexporterofgraphite,withan80%shareofglobalexports.
IndustrialnationsincludingFrance,Germany,andAustriaarekey
nodesintheinterconnectedglobalgraphitetrade.Forlithium,the
PRCisthebiggestproducerandexporteroftheprocessedmineral,
withtheUS,theRepublicofKorea,andGermanyasmajorimporters.
IndonesiaistheleadingexporterofnickelwiththePRCasthe
primaryimportdestination.ThePRCisthelargestexporterofREEsandakeynodeforimportingfromothermajorexporters,highlightingitscentralroleinproductionandrefinement.
Miningprojectsandcleanenergytechnologymanufacturing,besides
theiroverrelianceonafewsuppliersandeconomies,tendtohavelongleadtimesandcomewithconsiderablefinancialrisks.Minestakeanaverageof16.5yearstomovefromdiscoverytoproduction(IEA2021).Cleanenergytechnologymanufacturingfacilities
takebetween3and5yearstodevelop,dependingonthetypeoftechnology.
Figure10:TradeNetworksofSelectedCriticalMinerals,2022
(a)Cobalt(HS282200,810520,810530,810590)(b)Graphite(HS250410,250490,380110,
380120,380190,681510,690310,854511,
854519,854520,854590)
USA
BEL
SIN
MOZ
ZAF
HKG
NOR
9.7%4.1%4.5%
16.7%
1.3%
ZMB
ROW
1.3%
3.2%
3.2%
COD
0.5%0.31%
IRE
1.5%
0.6%
1.1%
UKG
0.7%
0.4%
1.5%
0.6%
25.2%
0.3%
0.3%
NET
GER
0.7%0.5%
TAP
0.2%
0.4%
0.3%
JPN
0.3%
0.6%
PRC
FRA
0.2%
1.6%
0.4%0.3%
KOR
SPA
CAN
POL
CAN
PRC
KOR
0.6%
1%
0.2%
BRA
0.1%
0.6%
0.8%
TUR
0.1%
1%
0.5%
MEX
0.6%
0.3%
ITA
0.1%
3.9%
FRA
0.7%
0.2%
0.6%
0.1%
0.7%
USA
0.1%
0.5%4.6%
AUT
0.3%0.4%
○0.1%○7.4%
6.6%45.2%○
HUN
ROW
MAL
8.6%
RUS
6.3%
5.9%
GER
(c)Lithium(HS282520,283691,850650,850760)(d)Nickel(HS75,282540,282735,283324,381511,741122)
2.4%
6.6%
GER
3%
1.1%
0.5%
PRC
KOR
7.3%
0.4%
1%
0.6%
2.9%19.8%
8.7%
0.2%
2%2.6%
5%
NET
JPN
ROW
CHL
3.7%
BEL
MEX
0.2%
FRA
1.4%
1%
0.4%
0.3%
USA
POL
ITA
0.4%
0.6%
CZE
0.7%
0.6%
1.2%
0.1%
0.3%
HUN
1%
UKG
CAN
0.8%1%
3.5%
1%
FRA
MEX
0.3%2.4%
1.3%
1%
NOR
1%
1%
5%
5%
0.7%
0.8%
NET
GER
JPN
0.4%
0.2%
3%
1%
11%
AUT
TAP
0.1%
ROW
0.7%
0.4%
IND
0.02%
INO
3.9%
MAL
PRC
0.2%0.3%
3%0.9%
USA
0.5%
0.5%
KOR
ITA
continuedonnextpage
10
ADBBRIEFSNO.298
4%
17%
Figure10:TradeNetworksofSelectedCriticalMinerals,2022
(e)Rareearthelements(HS280530;284610;284690)
SAUGER
MEX
0.1%0.4%
0.1%
0.6%
ROW
USA
5%
1%
0.8%3%
NET
0.5%
0.02%
1%
PRC
UKG
0.01%
0.1%7%
3%
2%
21%
FRA
1%
0.02%
THA
0.3%
3%
1%3%
KOR
1%1%
MAL
8%
JPN
PHI
2%
1%
VIE
TAP
AUT=Austria;BEL=Belgium;BRA=Brazil;CAN=Canada;CHL=Chile;CZE=CzechRepublic;DRC=DemocraticRepublicofCongo;FRA=France;
GER=Germany;HKG=HongKong,China;HS=harmonizedsystem;HUN=Hungary;IND=India;INO=Indonesia;IRE=Ireland;ITA=Italy;JPN=Japan;KOR=RepublicofKorea;MAL=Malaysia;MEX=Mexico;MOZ=Mozambique;NET=Netherlands;NOR=Norway;PHI=Philippines;POL=Poland;
PRC=People’sRepublicofChina;ROW=restoftheworld;RUS=RussianFederation;SAU=SaudiArabia;SIN=Singapore;SPA=Spain;SRI=SriLanka;TAP=Taipei,China;THA=Thailand;TUR=Türkiye;UKG=UnitedKingdom;USA=UnitedStates;VIE=VietNam;ZAF=SouthAfrica;ZMB=Zambia.
Notes:Thenodesizesrepresenttheeconomy’stotaltrade(exportsplusimports)inacommoditygroup.Linethicknessrepresentsthevalueofflowsbetweeneconomies.Eachlineshowstheshareofexportstothetotalglobalexportsofthecommoditygroup,withonlyexportswithhighvaluesrepresented.Thearrowcolorvariestohighlightflowdirections.HScodesarebasedon
https://oma.on.ca/en/ontario-mining/2022_OMA_Mineral_Profiles.pdf.
Source:AsianDevelopmentBankcalculationsusingdatafromUnitedNations.CommodityTradeDatabase.
(accessed30October2023).
Thepricevolatilityisoftenanotablefeatureofmetalsandminerals.AsillustratedinFigure11,thepricesofcobalt,copper,andnickel
werehighlyvolatilebetween2019and2023.
Highpricevolatilitydiscouragesinvestmentandcreateschallengesforcompaniestoplancleanenergytechnologyprojects.Geographicconcentrationandlongleadtimesforminingdevelopmentarethemainreasonsforthevolatility,butotherfactorsarealsoatplay.
Insufficientdataontheproduction,demand,trade,andinventoriesofcriticalminerals,particularlyforlithium,graphite,andcobalt,
createmarketuncertainty,increasepricevolatility,anddelay
investment(StuermerandWittenstein2023).
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