世界银行-东帝汶和加入世贸组织：利用势头支持发展成果（英）-2024

TIMOR-LESTE

AND

WTO

ACCESSIONHarnessingMomentumto

SupportDevelopmentOutcomesPierreSauvé,SimonLacey,

andCsillaLakatos©2024International

Bankfor

ReconstructionandDevelopment/

The

World

Bank1818HStreetNWWashingtonDC20433Telephone:

202-473-1000Internet:

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work

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workisgiven.Attribution:Pleasecitethereportasfollows:Sauvé,P.,

Lacey,S.,andC.Lakatos.2024.“Timor-Leste

and

WTO

Accession:

Harnessing

Momentum

to

Support

Development

Outcomes.”WashingtonDC:

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OF

CONTENTSACKNOWLEDGMENTIVVVI1ABBREVIATIONSEXECUTIVESUMMARYPART

I.

SITUATING

TIMOR-LESTE’SRECENT

TRADEPERFORMANCEPART

II.

ANOVERVIEW

OF

THE

WTOACCESSIONPROCESSI.

Legal

FoundationsandInstitutional

Processes1.

Legal

Underpinningsof

the

AccessionProcess2.

WTO

AccessionandLeastDevelopedCountries3.

DomesticInstitutional

Arrangementsandtheir

Long-Term

ImportanceII.

Market

AccessNegotiations6677891.

WTO

AccessionNegotiationsasa

Two-WayStreet2.

WTO

AccessionandDevelopmentImperativesfor

Timor-LesteIII.

LegislativeandRegulatory

Reforms910101011111.

Reformsandthe

Trade-offs

of

Membership2.

WTO

AccessionasaOnceinaGenerationOpportunity3.

Tapping

intotheResourcesof

theInternational

Donor

CommunityPART

III.

THE

WTOACCESSIONPROCESS

ANDECONOMICGROWTHI.

Market

Access,CompetitivenessandExportGrowth1.

Linkagesbetween

WTO

AccessionandEconomicGrowth2.

Complementary

andSustainedCommitmentto

Reforms3.

Potential

EconomicGainsfor

Timor-Leste1212131515II.

TheServicesDimension16171.

Services-LedGrowth2.

Leveraging

Trade

inServicesto

Grow

the

TimoreseEconomy3.

Timor-Leste’sServicesOffer1718191924252526272930III.

LeveragingDigital

Transformation

for

Trade1.

Harnessingthe

AccessionProcessfor

Digital

Transformation2.

Aidfor

Trade

and

Trade-Related

Technical

Assistancefor

Digital

TransformationIV.

Regulatory

Reform,Institutional

Strengtheningand

Trade

Facilitation1.

Leveraging

WTO

AccessionandMembershipto

Improve

Quality

Infrastructure2.

Reducing

Trade

Coststhrough

Trade

FacilitationImprovements3.

LegislativeandRegulatory

Reformsto

Improve

theBusinessClimateand

AttractFDICONCLUSION-HARNESSINGMOMENTUM

ANDMANAGINGEXPECTATIONSREFERENCESACKNOWLEDGMENTThis

report

was

prepared

by

Pierre

Sauvé

(Senior

Private

Sector

Specialist,

World

Bank),Simon

Lacey

(Head

of

Digital

Trade

and

Geopolitics,

World

Economic

Forum),

and

CsillaLakatos

(Senior

Economist,

World

Bank).

Detailed

feedback,

suggestions,

and

commentswere

received

from

peer

reviewers

Roberto

Echandi

(Senior

Trade

Specialist,

World

Bank)and

Michael

Ferrantino

(Former

Lead

Economist,

World

Bank)

as

well

as

Alief

Reza

(SeniorEconomist,

World

Bank),

Habib

Rab

(Lead

Economist,

World

Bank),

and

Bernard

Harborne(Country

Representative,

Timor-Leste,

World

Bank).

The

team

worked

under

the

overallguidance

of

Satu

Kristiina

Kahkonen

(World

Bank

CountryDirector

for

Indonesia

andTimor-Leste),

Bernard

Harborne

(World

Bank

Country

Representative,

Timor-Leste),

Lars

ChristianMoller

(PracticeManager,

World

Bank),andHabibRab(LeadEconomist,

World

Bank).Financial

support

for

this

work

was

generously

provided

by

the

governments

of

theNetherlands,

Norway,

Sweden,

Switzerland,

and

the

United

Kingdom

through

the

UmbrellaFacility

for

Trade

Trust

Fund.ABBREVIATIONSADBAfTASEANAsianDevelopmentBankAidfor

TradeAssociationof

Southeast

AsianNationsMFNMNCsMSMEsMostFavored

NationMultinational

CompaniesMicro,Small,andMediumSizedEnterprisesASYCUDAAutomatedSystemfor

CustomsDataNQCINQINSWNTBsOECDNational

Quality

Control

InstituteNational

Quality

InfrastructureNational

Single

WindowNon-TariffBarriersOrganizationfor

EconomicCo-operationandDevelopmentPersonal

ComputersPreferential

TradeAgreementsSpecial

andDifferential

TreatmentSpecial

EconomicZoneSanitary

andPhytosanitaryMeasuresCEMCTIFCountry

EconomicMemorandumCanadian

Trade

andInvestmentFacility

for

DevelopmentDiagnostic

Trade

IntegrationStudyElectronicDataInterchangeEnhancedIntegratedFrameworkEU-PacificEconomicPartnershipAgreementFood

and

AgricultureOrganizationForeign

DirectInvestmentGeneral

Agreementon

Trade

inServicesDTISEDIEIFPCsPTAsSDTSEZSPSEPAFAOFDIGATSSTDFStandardsand

Trade

DevelopmentFacilityGATTGeneral

Agreementon

Tariffs

andTradeGlobal

PositioningSystemGeneralizedSystemof

PreferencesHerfindahl-HirschmanConcentrationIndexInformationandCommunicationTechnologyIntellectual

PropertyTBTTFATRTAUNCTADTechnical

Barriersto

TradeTrade

Facilitation

AgreementTrade-Related

Technical

AssistanceUnitedNationsConferenceonTrade

andDevelopmentUnitedNationsDevelopmentProgrammeUnitedNationsIndustrialDevelopmentOrganizationUnitedStates

Agency

forInternational

DevelopmentWorld

HealthOrganizationWorld

Intellectual

PropertyOrganizationGPSGSPHHIUNDPUNIDOUSAIDICTIPIPPCInternational

PlantProtectionConventionISPsITAITCInternetServiceProvidersInformation

Technology

AgreementInternational

Trade

CenterJointStatementInitiativeLeastDevelopedCountriesLight-EmittingDiodeLogisticsPerformanceIndexMinisterial

ConferenceCoordinatingMinistry

of

EconomicAffairsWHOWIPOJSIWOAHWTOWorld

Organizationfor

AnimalHealthWorld

Trade

OrganizationLDCsLEDLPIMCMCAETIMOR-LESTE

AND

WTOACCESSIONHarnessingMomentumto

SupportDevelopmentOutcomesEXECUTIVE

SUMMARYWTO

accession

is

a

challenging

process

typicallycommanding

a

heavy

price

in

terms

of

resourcesand

time

expended

while

also

calling

for

theexpense

of

non-trivial

political

capital

by

anacceding

country’s

policymakers.

Nevertheless,gaining

membership

of

the

world

trade

bodyrepresents

a

once

in

a

generation

opportunity

foracceding

countries

to

embark

upon

and

sustaina

set

of

deep

structural

reforms

seldom

possiblein

the

absence

of

binding

policycommitments.Assuch,

WTO

accession

affords

candidate

countriesa

unique

opportunity

to

align

domestic

policy,legislative

and

regulatory

norms

and

procedureswith

international

best

practices,

with

the

payoffbeing

a

permanent

seat

–

and

voice

-

at

the

tableof

international

trade

rulemaking

alongside

theexplicit

guarantee

of

non-discriminatory,

stableand

predictable

market

access

that

the

WTOprovidesto

all

itsmembers.while

also

being

exposed

to

natural

disasters.Additionally,

Timor-Leste

suffers

from

poorconnectivity

both

regionally

and

globally,

thoughimportant

improvements

have

recently

made

orare

soon

set

to

materialize

in

regard

to

transport(both

maritime

and

air)

and

telecommunicationslinksto

therestof

the

world.While

WTO

and

subsequently

ASEAN

accessioncan

help

Timor-Leste

address

and

overcome

manyof

the

above

challenges,

neither

of

these

outcomescan

–

nor

should

be

expected

to

-

produce

miraclesbythemselves.Both,however,

canhelpguideandanchor

a

wide

range

of

reforms

that

the

countrywould

be

well-served

to

implement

if

either

ofthese

processes

is

to

succeed

in

helping

Timor-Leste

and

its

people

secure

greater

and

cheaperaccess

to

the

inputs

and

foreign

direct

investment(FDI)

needed

to

address

prevailing

supply-sideand

connectivity

weaknesses.

In

turn,

Timor-Leste

could

reap

the

benefits

of

closer

integrationinto

the

global

trading

system

and

heightenedparticipationinregional

valuechains.Timor-Leste

is

a

young

nation

facing

a

set

of

uniquechallenges

as

it

nears

the

completion

of

its

WTOaccession

process.

Such

challenges

include

a1small

domestic

market,

still

comparatively

behindin

terms

of

purchasing

power,

and

the

high

tradecosts

that

its

firms

and

consumers

are

forced

tocontend

with.

Timor-Leste

further

exhibits

weakexport

diversification

and

is

a

post-conflict

societystill

susceptible

to

social

and

political

tensionsThis

report

considers

the

case

for

Timor-Leste

tobring

its

quest

for

WTO

accession

to

a

successfulconclusion.

It

advances

a

set

of

argumentsdesigned

to

help

the

country’s

policymakers

intheir

dialogue

with

domestic

stakeholders

and1On

January

11,2024,membersendorsed

Timor-Leste’s

WTO

membership,concludingamorethanseven-year

processinitiatedin2016.Theformal

decisionisscheduledto

takeplaceatthe

WTO’s13thMinisterial

Conference(MC13)in

AbuDhabiinFebruary

2024.Formoreinformationontheaccessionprocesssee/english/thewto_e/acc_e/a1_timor_leste_e.htm.v

ITIMOR-LESTE

AND

WTOACCESSIONHarnessingMomentumto

SupportDevelopmentOutcomesconstituents

of

the

benefits

that

the

Timoreseeconomy

and

its

citizens

stand

to

derive

fromplacing

the

country’s

trade

ties

to

the

world

marketon

a

stable

and

predictable

global

footing.

This

isso

because,

as

the

experience

of

many

recentlyacceded

countries

has

shown,

the

many

reformsassociated

with

WTO

accession,

when

supportedby

the

necessary

political

will,

are

conducive

to

thelong-term,

sustainable,

strengthening

of

Timoreseeconomicgovernance.other

hand,

refrain

from

offering

WTO

membershipas

the

solution

to

the

many

structural

constraintscurrently

besettingthe

Timoreseeconomy.This

report

articulates

the

potential

benefits

ofWTO

membership

while

also

reflecting

on

thechallenges

involved

in

a

least

developed

country(LDC)

setting

such

as

that

of

Timor-Leste.

Severalkeymessagesemergefromthisreport’sanalysis:•Timor-Leste

is

a

smallopen

economythat

reliesheavily

on

international

trade

for

its

prosperity.The

country’s

limited

progress

to

date

intackling

domestic

supply-side

constraintshas

meant

that

Timor-Leste’s

long-heldcommitment

to

an

outward-looking

economicstrategy

has

yet

to

produce

sustained

growthanddevelopmentdividends.This

report

is

divided

into

three

parts.

Part

1

offersa

brief

overview

of

Timor-Leste’s

recent

tradeperformance

and

the

overall

macro-economiccontext

within

which

the

country’s

quest

for

WTOaccession

takes

place.

Part

2

provides

an

overviewof

the

WTO

accession

process

and

its

legal

andinstitutional

implications

for

Timor-Leste.

This

partfirst

examines

the

legalfoundations

and

proceduralaspects

of

the

accession

process

and

the

long-term

impacts

it

can

be

expected

to

exert

on

tradepolicy

making

in

Timor-Leste.

It

then

takes

up

theimplications

of

the

market

access

negotiations

ingoods

and

services

that

form

an

integral

part

ofWTO

accession

negotiations.

Part

2

concludeswith

a

discussion

of

the

legislative

and

regulatoryreforms

that

form

part

of

the

accession

processand

offers

some

explanations

on

harnessing

theprocessto

maximizeitsbenefitsfor

thecountry.••Supportive

trade

policies,

including

the

twinprocesses

of

WTO

and

ASEAN

accession,need

to

be

coupled

with

reforms

thateliminate

supply-side

constraints

to

privatesector

development

and

broader

economicdiversification.WTO

accession

is

a

long

process

withestablished

procedures

and

mechanisms

thatcan

guide

countries

and

offer

insights

intothe

commitments

they

will

be

expected

tomake.

Each

country’s

accession

is

different,with

scope

for

negotiators

to

craft

a

set

ofoutcomes

and

solutions

specifically

tailoredto

the

circumstances

of

a

given

applicant.Timor-Leste

can

leverage

WTO

Guidelines

forthe

Accession

of

Least

Developed

Countries(LDCs)

tosecureadditional

policy

space

whereneeded.Part

3

of

the

report

focuses

on

WTO

accessionand

how

it

can

be

leveraged

to

achieve

long-runeconomic

growth.This

part

discusses

some

oftheidentified

linkages

between

WTO

accession

andgrowth,

as

well

as

some

of

the

potential

gains

onoffer

for

Timor-Leste,

specifically.

It

also

outlineshow

the

process

of

WTO

accession

can

boostthe

contribution

of

services

and

digital

trade

toTimoresegrowthandstructural

transformation.••Market

access

negotiations

can

also

be

usedto

extract

needed

policy

space,

for

instance

insetting

tariff

bindings

above

currently

appliedlevels

(in

the

case

of

goods)

where

necessary,but

also

to

schedule

services

commitmentsthat

will

support

regulatory

reforms

tostrengthen

the

ease

of

doing

business,

moregenerally.More

than

just

being

the

trade-off

for

WTOmembership,

the

domestic

reforms

inducedby

WTO

accession

represent

a

once-in-a-generation

opportunity

for

policymakers

tobring

Timor-Leste’s

legislative

and

regulatoryframeworks

in

line

with

international

bestpractice

and

expose

key

public

and

privatesector

stakeholders

to

high

standards

of

globaleconomicgovernance.The

report

concludes

with

a

call

for

Timor-Leste

to

maintain

the

strong

existing

momentumof

its

accession

journey

while

also

managingexpectations

of

the

short-term

impacts

of

WTOaccession.

The

benefits

ofaccession

will

take

timeto

materialize

as

the

Timorese

economy

adaptsto

more

competitive

market

conditions

while

alsopursuing

the

deep

domestic

reforms

neededto

diversify

and

boost

the

competitiveness

ofcountry’s

export

basket

and

strengthen

its

tradeinfrastructure.

Managing

expectations

requires

acareful

balancing

act

for

Timorese

policymakers.On

the

one

hand,

they

will

need

to

realize

thepromised

benefits

of

WTO

accession,while

on

thev

I

ITIMOR-LESTE

AND

WTOACCESSIONHarnessingMomentumto

SupportDevelopmentOutcomes••With

a

small

domestic

market,the

only

way

forTimorese

firms

to

achieve

competitiveness-enhancing

economies

of

scale

is

by

exportingtoregional

andglobal

markets,somethingthataccessionto

the

WTO

andlater

ASEAN

canbeinstrumental

insupporting.A

large

body

of

empirical

research

pointsto

important

causal

linkages

betweenWTO

accession,

productivity,

growth

andimproved

national

competitiveness.

However,it

is

important

to

understand

the

directionof

the

causal

linkages,

i.e.,

that

it

is

pro-competitive

domestic

reforms

that

drive

exportcompetitiveness.Given

the

many

constraints

faced

by

Timor-Leste,

including

a

relatively

narrow

exportbase,

the

promise

of

services-led

developmentappearsparticularly

promising.Conventional

wisdom

has

long

suggestedthat

manufacturing-led

growth

represents

themain

path

to

economic

development.

Recentresearch

shows

that

services-led

growthcan

be

highly

effective

in

helping

countriesaccumulate

human

capital

and

move

up

thedevelopmentladder.Harnessing

the

development

promise

ofservices

trade

will

require

Timor-Leste

tofocus

on

improving

the

country’s

businessand

regulatory

climate,s

while

also

scaling

upinvestments

in

education

and

skilling

to

raisethequality

of

domestichumancapital.Timor-Leste’s

services

offer

recognizesthe

importance

of

open

and

competitiveservices

markets.

So

does

its

commitmentto

join

both

the

Reference

Paper

on

BasicTelecommunications

and

the

Joint

StatementInitiative

(JSI)

on

Domestic

Services

Regulation.Timor-Leste

should

consider

pre-committingto

the

recently

agreed

JSI

on

InvestmentFacilitation

to

Development.

Doing

so

wouldsend

a

strongly

positive

signal

to

potentialforeigninvestors.•••Because

of

the

elevated

incidence

of

non-tariffbarriers

(NTBs)

in

international

trade

today,

theimportance

of

national

quality

infrastructure(NQI)

has

likewise

taken

on

an

elevated

positionin

the

interface

between

domestic

regulationandtradepolicy.WTO

accession

offers

a

chance

to

tap

intotrade-related

technical

assistance

in

order

toimprove

and

strengthen

the

institutions

at

thecenter

of

Timor-Leste’s

quality

infrastructure,

inparticular

the

NationalQualityControl

Institute(NQCI).In

an

era

of

regional

and

global

value

chains,the

critical

importance

of

lowering

tradecosts

justifies

the

policy

focus

on

bordermanagement

issues.

Technical

assistanceprovisions

embedded

in

the

WTO

TradeFacilitation

Agreement

offer

Timor-Lestean

important

opportunity

to

improve

andstreamline

customs

practices

to

benefit

its

ownexporters

as

well

as

current

and

future

foreigninvestors.Experience

shows

that

the

domestic

reformsassociated

to

WTO

accession,

in

both

theregulation

of

cross-border

trade

in

goods,

andthe

domestic

regulation

of

services,

help

toproduce

a

better

business

environment

and

amore

welcominginvestmentclimate.•••••••Becausetheinternationalcommunityrecognizes

that

accession-related

reforms

canbe

challenging,

particularly

for

LDCs,

WTOaccession

offers

a

chance

to

secure

hithertountapped

levels

of

trade-related

technicalassistance

from

a

broad

array

of

donors.

Thisis

something

that

Timor-Leste

has

alreadyexperienced.

Here

again,

experience

suggeststhat

Aid

for

Trade

support

will

expand

onceTimor-Leste

becomes

a

WTO

member.

Suchsupport

can

facilitate

the

implementation

ofaccession

commitments

and

the

design

andenactmentof

further

domesticreforms.The

domestic

consultative

mechanismsestablished

as

part

of

the

accession

processto

allow

different

parts

of

the

governmentto

collaborate

should

be

maintained

afterthe

WTO

accession

process

is

completed,both

to

support

implementation

of

accessioncommitments

but

also

the

negotiation

offuture

trade

agreements.

The

maintenance

ofsuch

an

institutional

architecture

will

also

lendsupportto

-andhelpexpedite

–

Timor-Leste’saccessionto

ASEAN.•••Timorese

policymakers

can

harness

the

WTOaccession

process

to

position

the

country’sfirms

to

participate

more

fully

in

the

digitaleconomy.Preparing

to

connect

with

digital

value

chainsrequiresits

own

set

of

comprehensiveregulatory

reforms,

many

of

which

haveimportant

synergies

with

those

beingundertaken

as

part

of

the

WTO

accessionprocess.v

I

I

ITIMOR-LESTE

AND

WTOACCESSIONHarnessingMomentumto

SupportDevelopmentOutcomesPART

ISituating

Timor-Leste’s

RecentTrade

PerformanceTimor-Leste

is

a

small

open

economy

that

reliesheavily

on

international

trade

for

its

prosperity.

In2021,

the

share

of

trade

in

GDP

reached

89

percent,with

exports

of

goods

and

services

contributing26

percent

of

aggregate

output

while

importsaccounted

for

63

percent

of

GDP

(Figure

1).

Theexportintensity

of

Timor-Leste’sGDP

stoodatonly8.3

percent

in

2011,

its

subsequent

rise

owing

chieflyto

the

recording

of

oil

and

gas

exports

starting

in2019.Despitesuchadvances,thecountry’sexportcompetitiveness

has

been

lagging

and

remainssignificantly

below

potential.8.4

(for

services)

respectively

at

the

onset

of

theCOv

ID19pandemic,amongthehighestcomparedto

peers.

Such

trends

revealnot

onlythe

country’sconsiderable

reliance

on

imports

but

also

thenarrownessof

itsexportbasket.Figure1:

Trade

asshareof

GDP

(percent)Services

importsGoods

importsServices

exportsGoods

exportsCrude

oilprice

index

(RHS)Coffee

price

index

(RHS)20016012080120100806040200Between

2011

and

2018,

Timorese

goods

andservices

exports

averaged

US$19

million

andUS$78

million

respectively,

representing

only1.3

percent

(goods)

and

5.5

percent

(services)

ofGDP.

By

contrast,

imports

of

goods

and

servicesaveraged

US$522

million

and

US$697

million,respectively,over

theperiod.400Evidence

of

the

Timorese

economy’s

fragility

canbe

seen

in

the

ratios

of

goods

and

services

importsto

exports.

These

stood

at

16.2

(for

goods)

andSource:

World

Bank2023basedon

Timor-Lestecustomstransactionstradedata2Sincethesignatureof

theMaritimeBorder

Treaty

with

Australiain2018,previously

disputedexportsof

oil

andgashavebeenofficiallyrecordedin

Timor-Leste’stradedata.1TIMOR-LESTE

AND

WTOACCESSIONHarnessingMomentumto

SupportDevelopmentOutcomesThe

high

degree

ofconcentration

of

Timor-Leste’sexport

basket

exposes

the

country

to

significantvulnerabilities.

In

2021,

exports

of

oil

and

gasaccounted

for

more

than

94

percent

of

Timoresegoods

exports,

while

tourism

generated

79

percentof

services

exports.

Apart

from

hydrocarbons,coffee

has

been

the

second

most

important

exportcommodity,

contributing

a

further

5

percent

of

totalmerchandise

exports

in

2021.

Such

trends

highlightthe

critical

importance

of

trade

diversificationefforts,

which

rank

among

the

main

motivationsbehind

Timor-Leste’s

quest

to

join

the

WTO

andASEAN

and

to

deepen

its

bilateral

trade

ties

withleading

partners.

Boosting

the

country’s

exportpotential

will

require

a

sustained

strengthening

ofthe

country’s

private

sector

alongside

continuedefforts

to

build

greater

institutional

capacity

toaddress

high

and

persistent

st