策略深度研究-海外中资股：2023年报总结

正文目录总量概览：营收增速与ROE边际上行，经营性现金流与盈利增速分化 3盈利结构：能源ROE高且稳定、消费/互联网OCF与ROE改善明显 10资本开支：结构上寻找具备产能供给优势或压力下降双主线 14库存周期：去库接近完成，等待周期磨底 20附录 22风险提示 26总量概览：营收增速与ROE边际上行，经营性现金流与盈利增速分化2024/5/3（港股中资股与美股中概股）23年年报已基本披露完毕（具体分行业披露率情况可参考附录（PPI和工业增加值累计同比之和衡量年内或出现底部拐点大致匹结构来看，2H23（含部分电新链上游等）等少数行业出现较明显的环比下行，营收增速的修复广度较高。此外，对于部分金融板块，须注意当前会计准则下投资收益已计入整体营收的计算口径中（详情可见相关企业合并损益表具体情况图表1：海外中概股营收增速底部或已在1H23确认 图表2：但非金融地产海外中概股归母净润底部拐点仍未现全部港美中概股（去重，非金融地产）营收增速全部港美中概股（去重）营收增速40%全部港美中概股（去重，非金融地产）营收增速全部港美中概股（去重）营收增速30%20%10%0%-10%1H111H182H181H192H191H202H201H212H211H222H221H232H23-20%1H111H182H181H192H191H202H201H212H211H222H221H232H23

60%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%

全部港美中概股（去重，非金融地产）归母净利润增速全部港美中概股（去重）归母净利润增速资料来源：， 资料来源：，图表3：海外中概股营收增速和名义经济间具备较强相关性（1） 图表4：海外中概股营收增速和名义经济间具备较强相关性（2）30%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%1H12-20%1H12

非金融地产港美中资股营收TTMyoyPPI+工业增加值(%,RHS)

25201510501H23(5)1H23

25y=47.399x+3.6811R²=0.759520y=47.399x+3.6811R²=0.7595PPI+工业增加值PPI+工业增加值(%)1050(5)-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%非金融地产港美中资股营收TTMyoy注：PPI和工业增加值皆用累计同比口径资料来源：，

资料来源：，图表5：广度来看，2H23营收增速普遍边际上行，仅能源、汽车与半导体等少数行业出现较明显的环比下行全部港美中资股一级分类二级分类 三级分类 1H18 2H18 1H19 2H19 1H20 2H20 1H21 2H21 1H22 2H22 1H23 2H232H23环比1H23环比当前分位数趋势图差分 差分

自2H11能源

14.1% 13.0%

2.2%

-15.4%

-17.5%

8.7%

37.0%

30.6%

10.6%

-3.2%

-5.8%

-2.6%

-13.8%

25%材料

13.1%

9.0%

7.9%

4.1%

15.1%

35.1%

29.4%

9.8%

-5.1%

-8.4%

-1.3%

7.1%

-3.3%

25%金属、非金属与采矿

15.8%

2.8%

1.0%

7.0%

8.1%

18.1%

40.3%

39.2%

17.3%

1.2%

-4.6%

-0.8%

3.8%

-5.8%

21%化工

14.9%

3.7%

-4.5%

-11.7%

-2.8%

20.9%

35.0%

26.1%

-3.7%

-20.5%

-2.7%

17.8%

-16.7%

50%建材Ⅲ

45.9%

35.7%

13.4%

-0.7%

12.9%

26.7%

8.4%

-9.9%

-22.4%

-17.0%

-1.6%

15.4%

5.4%

25%容器与包装

40.3%

11.1%

-8.9%

-5.8%

7.3%

32.2%

22.4%

2.9%

-11.5%

-10.2%

-5.5%

4.7%

1.3%

21%纸与林木产品

23.4%

-11.5%

-23.7%

1.5%

7.9%

5.3%

22.7%

11.0%

-7.0%

-11.0%

-20.1%

-17.1%

-9.1% 8%工业 14.8%

5.8% 6.3%

8.7%

0.4%

11.5%

31.7%

21.4%

3.1%

-3.2% -3.2%

4.0%

7.2%

0.0%

38%资本货物

14.6%

5.0%

9.2%

3.2%

15.8%

33.0%

17.0%

0.2%

-3.0%

-1.1%

5.5%

6.6%

1.9%

42%电气设备

14.3%

5.6%

-0.9%10.5%-0.9%

7.3%

18.1%

31.0%

4.9%

-9.9%

-4.7%

-1.9%

6.1%

8.0%

2.8%

54%机械

6.1% 3.3%

-1.9%

19.3%

41.8%

14.4%

-18.8%-19.5%

-1.6%

9.2%

10.8%

17.9%

58%商业和专业服务

9.4%

18.7% 18.1%

12.8%

15.4%

28.2%

17.9%

-2.2%

-18.3%-18.6%

-4.5%

14.1%

-0.3%

13%运输

9.2% 9.1%

-13.1%

-8.7%

24.7%

46.8%

18.8%

-2.8%

-11.5%

-2.5%

9.0%

-8.7%

29%可选消费

20.7%

11.5%

5.6%

9.6%

2.9%

19.0%

43.7%

29.7%

8.9%

5.1%

9.8%

15.7%

5.9% 4.7%

67%汽车与汽车零部件

14.6%

0.0%

-7.4%

-2.6%

-6.5%

15.3%

42.8%

25.0%

8.5%

20.9%

29.8%

26.2%

-3.6%

8.9%

83%耐用消费品与服装

14.7%

10.5%

5.8%

-2.1%

8.9%

33.8%

25.7%

7.8%

-3.7%

8.1%

12.2%

-0.4%

50%消费者服务Ⅱ

32.6%

18.0%

7.0%

17.7%

-4.4%

2.2%

45.6%

33.1%

-5.0%

-17.6%

-0.3%

24.6%

25.0%

17.3%

83%媒体Ⅱ

16.3%

34.3%

24.2%

4.4%

8.7%

25.6%

19.6%

-6.4%

-8.3%

-5.7%

-3.9%

1.8%

17%零售业

32.2%

23.6%

19.0%

15.4%

31.5%

49.6%

34.9%

12.5%

2.7%

4.2%

10.5%

6.3% 1.5% 8%日常消费

1.8%

3.9% 3.8%

9.0%

7.0%

8.9%

14.0%

14.0%

1.1%

-3.5%

-0.8%

0.4%

1.2% 2.7%

25%食品与主要用品零售Ⅱ

1.8%

-2.2%

1.2%

3.2%

3.8%

13.3%

19.0%

10.1%

-2.5%

-9.0%

-8.8%

-3.0%

5.8%

0.2%

25%食品、饮料与烟草

1.9%

4.7%

9.8%

7.5%

8.3%

13.6%

14.6%

1.5%

-2.7%

0.4%

-0.1%

3.1%

21%家庭与个人用品

-8.2%

-2.5%

1.9%

-1.2%

12.0%

-5.4%

8.8%

-11.2%

-13.3%

40.2%

53.5%

-2.1%

96%医疗保健

14.9%

19.1%

25.6%

17.6%

1.0%

9.9%

34.1%

30.9%

6.2%

-6.9%

0.1%

6.0%

5.9% 7.0%

17%医疗保健设备与服务

11.2%

17.7%

27.7%

18.8%

2.2%

13.3%

28.7%

17.4%

3.4%

-2.4%

3.5%

4.2%

29%制药、生物科技与生命科学

20.8% 21.2%

16.0%

-0.7%

5.0%

42.1%

52.1%

10.1%

-12.4%

-4.2%

3.8%

8.0%

17%金融

-0.2%

2.7%

10.2%

5.1%

11.7%

16.5%

11.7%

2.8%

-9.7%

-19.7%

-16.9%

2.8%

-10.1% 4%银行

-0.1%

2.0%

6.5%

1.6%

9.1%

16.0%

13.8%

7.6%

-6.1%

-11.5%

-3.6%

8.0%

-5.4%

21%多元金融

7.3%

-8.2%

0.9%

18.3%

9.0%

22.6%

36.2%

10.7%

-24.6%

-25.0%

-5.1%

19.9%

-0.4%

29%保险Ⅱ

16.7%

1.6%

3.8%

12.0%

7.4%

14.3%

15.6%

5.0%

-3.1%

-8.7%

-25.9%

-31.6%

-5.7%

-17.1% 0%房地产

29.1%

25.2%

26.6%

13.6%

23.3%

38.3%

17.4%

-7.2%

-19.7%

-13.4%

1.8%

15.2%

6.3%

13%信息技术

21.8%

15.4%

10.3% 12.6%

6.8%

25.1%

37.8%

26.2%

7.2%

-2.5%

-2.3%

2.7%

4.9%

0.3%

13%软件与服务

38.4%

26.0%

17.2%

8.6%

27.8%

35.3%

24.5%

5.9%

-5.4%

-1.6%

7.3%

8.9%

3.7%

17%技术硬件与设备

-0.2%

7.0%

13.2%

8.7%

22.5%

40.0%

24.9%

-1.0%

-10.3%-10.2%

-0.7%

9.6%

0.1%

17%半导体与半导体生产设备

16.1%

-1.6%

-12.7%-14.6%

-10.8%

16.5%

46.4%

54.3%

49.1%

18.0%

-10.0%

-28.1%

-31.1%

21%电信服务

6.9%

-2.1%

-3.8%

-0.7%

-1.6%

10.4%

20.4%

13.2%

5.9%

0.1% -0.2%

5.2%

5.4%

-0.3%

50%公用事业

25.3%

13.0%

6.9%

4.4%

-1.5%

6.5%

22.8%

13.5%

5.7%

1.6% 1.9%

0.3%

-4.0%

21%全部港美中概股（去重，非金融地产）营收增速10.2%-3.6%26.1%26.9%11.9%1.6%-1.3%2.4%37%全部港美中概股（去重）营收增速8.4%-0.2%24.8%22.2%7.9%-3.0%-6.5%-1.8%21%注：本表是营收情况，根据GICS的行业组进行统计分类资料来源：，归母净利润视角，全口径海外中资股底部拐点或在2H22确认、但非金融地产海外中资股盈利在2H23进一步下行。结构上，能源、材料、工业、软件与服务和半导体是主要拖累非金融地产盈利增速的行业，而亮点在于可选消费与医药。利润率视角，结构性因素、和非经常性因素都存在拖累盈利增速的主要原因。结构视角，考虑非金融地产海外中资股中上游资源品（如三桶油等）占比较大CRB（商品价格指数23H2整体而1H24仍承压，而这亦在一季报中得以体现。图表6：海外中概股净利率和商品价格之间具备较强相关性（1） 图表7：海外中概股净利率和商品价格之具备较强相关性（2）6.0%

CRB半年度均值(RHS)

650

650y=8225.6x+50.669R²=0.516600y=8225.6x+50.669R²=0.5165.5%5.0%4.5%4.0%

600550500450400

550CRB半年度均值CRB半年度均值4504001H121H131H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H23

350

350

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5%非金融地产港美中资股净利率TTM资料来源：， 资料来源：，非经常性因素包括投资性损失和安检等原因。投资性损失方面，考虑个别新经济权重股利2H231Q24盈利。图表8：结构来看，能源、材料、工业、软件与服务和半导体是主要拖累非金融地产盈利增速的行业，而亮点在于可选消费与医药全部港美中资股一级分类二级分类 三级分类 1H18 2H18 1H19 2H19 1H20 2H20 1H21 2H21 1H22 2H22 1H23 2H232H23环比1H23环比当前分位数趋势图差分 差分 2H11能源 53.2% 47.4%

14.6%

-3.1%

-61.9%

-42.9%

256.0%

168.9%

41.3% 38.6%

-3.2%

-10.2%

-7.0%

-41.7%

33%材料

38.8%

-2.0%

-18.8%

-22.6%

21.9%

91.3%

58.0%

11.5%

-20.1%

-46.0%

-31.5%

14.5%

-25.9%

33%金属、非金属与采矿

137.5%

12.0%

-34.8%

-59.9%-61.7%

85.5%

429.6%

155.3%

48.3%

6.1%

-39.0%

-32.4%

6.6%

-45.2%

46%化工

192.5%

116.6%

-21.6%

-41.2%

-51.3%

59.6%

227.1%

48.4%

43.1%

13.3%

5.8%

-7.5%

-29.8%

46%建材Ⅲ

105.7%

82.1%

38.8%

16.3%

0.8%

10.3%

20.5%

2.8%

-20.8%

-55.6%

-63.7%

-39.8%

23.9%

-8.1%

21%容器与包装

-18.7%

-137.3%

-84.8%

146.1%

-192.1%

-378.2%

-170.6%

-70.6%

-320.1%

-136.0%

-33.0%

14.8%

47.8%

103.0%

79%纸与林木产品

37.6%

-43.0%-80.1%-51.8%

37.0%

-18.1%

115.2%125.2%

-94.3%-91.6%

-592.1%

-166.8%

425.3%

-500.5% 4%工业 13.6%

-1.6%

2.0%

13.7%

-17.6%

-15.1%

62.9%

40.6%

11.9%

4.3%

-22.2%

-15.1%

7.1%

-26.5%

29%资本货物

11.7%

1.5%

2.8%

9.9%

-6.4%

10.0%

40.7%

1.9%

-18.6%

-6.2%

-1.2%

4.8%

6.0%

5.0%

54%电气设备

14.8%

-6.2%

1.5%

7.6%

-7.8%

21.3%

-6.0%

-107.8%

-126.9%

394.6%389.8%

220.5%

-169.3%

-4.8%

92%机械

5.0%

5.4%

12.6%

4.6%

45.1%

57.3%

-7.9%

-44.5%

-35.1%

2.0%

24.1%

22.2%

37.1%

79%商业和专业服务

2.0%

-0.1%

-1.3%

6.0%

14.4%

34.2%

42.7%

5.9%

-18.3%-18.2%

-10.3%

-17.6%

-7.3%

7.9% 8%运输

-9.3%

0.2%

25.6%

-50.0%

-82.2%

176.9%

882.0%

113.3%

29.2%

-48.5%

-46.3%

2.2%

-77.7%

25%可选消费

25.0%

-113.8%

-72.6%

783.0%

254.2%

-8.0%

97.9%

-5.7%

-28.7%

40.7%

97.8%

-16.7%

57.0%

83%汽车与汽车零部件

16.0%

2.3%

-19.9%

-28.7%

-35.1%

-6.5%

90.0%

43.3%

-17.5%

-4.9%

27.9%

35.0%

7.1%

32.8%

83%耐用消费品与服装

21.8%

-3.3%

2.5%

30.4%

-18.7%

7.8%

122.0%

52.7%

-10.7%

-27.2%

-21.1%

16.0%

37.1%

6.0%

67%消费者服务Ⅱ

34.7%

8.8%

18.1%

-60.7%

-48.8%

248.8%

47.4%

-59.1%

-80.2%

80.8%

902.1%

821.3%

161.0%

100%媒体Ⅱ

405.5%

-20.8%

-4.4%

469.2%

-49.5%

-228.2%

179.5%

171.0%

648.8%

8.3%

10.6%

29.8%

19.2%

2.2%

71%零售业

123.6%

-974.7%

-132.3%

113.1%126.3%87.6%

-0.9%

-205.3%-205.8%

234.5%

912.3%

153.0%

-759.3%

677.8%

88%日常消费

57.8%

-27.2%

-32.1%

77.0%

56.2%

18.5%

70.1%

28.1%

2.7%

-3.4%

-8.9%

0.5%

9.3% -5.5%

54%食品与主要用品零售Ⅱ

122.9%

-42.8%

-96.6%

-131.6%

-91.1%

-152.6%

11.3%

36.0%

-33.5%

29.3%

-54.2%

-93.5%

10.0%

42%食品、饮料与烟草

53.8%

-23.9%-26.0%

74.4%

51.6%

20.7%

66.9%

25.0%

3.5%

-4.5%

-10.1%

-0.4%

9.6%

-5.6%

54%家庭与个人用品

-658.1%

-496.6%

-340.3%

68.7%

97.1%

133.9%

-689.7%

-2.1% -21.3%

173.8%

76.4%

-97.4%

167.9%

79%医疗保健

41.4%

7.0% 2.2%

-23.3%

-31.2%

3.9%

212.5%

232.2%

-9.2%

-70.2%

-45.3%

43.0%

88.3%

24.9%

92%医疗保健设备与服务

27.6%

-8.5%

5.7%

11.5%

-10.5%

16.5%

50.8%

-8.8%

-13.4%

2.6%

-2.9%

20.3%

23.2%

-5.5%

67%制药、生物科技与生命科学

48.3%

13.2%

1.0%

-34.7%-39.2%

-3.3%

313.5%

407.2%

-8.2%

-78.9%

-55.3%

56.5%

111.7%

23.6%

88%金融 11.1%

-3.0%

1.8%

12.0%

-6.4%

0.0%

17.2%

19.1%

3.4%

-10.4%

-4.9%

2.8%

7.7% 5.5%

38%银行

0.1%

3.8%

-7.8%

5.7%

20.4%

14.7%

5.3%

-2.2%

0.9%

3.7%

38%多元金融

-11.0%

-27.8%

-11.5%

27.1%

13.8%

-59.8%

-37.5%

317.9%

87.1%

-57.9%

-34.8%

22.4%

57.3%

23.0%

67%保险Ⅱ

49.2%

-7.3%

20.8%

66.8%

-6.8%

-1.9%

27.6%

-8.7%

-26.6%

-25.6%

-1.4%

9.9%

11.4%

24.2%

50%房地产

54.7%

6.6% 7.6%

18.3%

0.1%

10.7%

21.6%

-54.7%

-90.6%

-146.3%

-570.4%

-59.8%

510.6%

-424.1%

13%信息技术

44.9%

95.9%

9.2%

-1.9%

20.3%

0.8%

197.9%

84.1%

14.0%

28.1%

47.8%

-19.0%

-66.8%

19.8% 8%软件与服务

46.8%

12.0%

-15.9%

-11.6%

17.0%

-18.7%

254.6%

94.0%

26.2%

38.5%

67.7%

-12.8%

-80.5%

29.2%

13%技术硬件与设备

43.8%

142.6%

239.8%

56.9%

23.6%

62.9%

104.6%

1.4%

-64.2%-60.2%

20.2%

91.6%

71.4%

79%半导体与半导体生产设备

16.1%

-43.8%

-65.5%

-1.5%

149.2%

14.4%

245.1%

571.1%

165.2%

89.4%

10.6%

-61.6%

-72.2%-78.8%

13%电信服务

11.4%

5.8%

-3.7%

-7.2%

-4.0%

9.2%

19.1%

14.0%

10.2%

-0.2%

-1.8%

5.2%

7.1% -1.6%

63%公用事业

42.9%

-10.9%-15.2%

11.0% 3.8% 13.4%

54.3%

-19.6%

-81.5%

-6.0%

274.8%

51.1%

-223.7%

280.9%

88%全部港美中概股（去重，非金融地产）归母净利润增速

34.1%

6.1%

-3.0%

13.4%

-14.0%

-9.6%

100.1%

57.3%

7.4% 8.5%

0.3%

-2.3%

-2.7% -8.1%

38%全部港美中概股（去重）归母净利润增速资料来源：，

21.6%

0.8% 0.7%

13.1%

-8.3%

-2.1%

41.6%

22.5%

-4.3%

-8.6% -8.4%

-0.5%

7.8% 0.3%

33%图表9：当前一季报来看，营收亦显示能源与材料行业营收增速或在1Q24进一步承压全部港美中资股一级分类二级分类 三级分类2021-12-312022-03-312022-06-302022-09-302022-12-312023-03-312023-06-302023-09-302023-12-312024-03-31当前披露率能源 36.2% 46.1% 30.0% 19.1% 9.6% 2.8% -4.1% -1.8% -6.4% -6.9% 材料 28.3% 23.6% 8.6% -1.6% -5.8% -7.4% -7.8% -0.7% -2.0% -7.0% 金属、非金属与采矿 39.8% 36.3% 18.3% 6.2% 1.8% -2.0% -3.9% 2.1% -1.9% -6.5% 化工 50.3% 30.8% 19.0% 6.3% -0.1% 2.3% -6.8% -15.2% -5.6% 建材Ⅲ 8.8% 2.1% -9.8% -17.6% -22.8% -20.5% -17.2% -7.6% -1.2% -8.4% 容器与包装 -17.0% -16.5% -30.5% -28.9% -25.5% -23.9% -11.1% -9.7% -26.7% 纸与林木产品 10.7% -6.1% -7.7% -12.3% -11.2% -12.4% -20.1% -20.2% -17.6% -11.1% 工业 19.0% 13.5% 1.3% -5.1% -5.1% -5.6% -4.5% 1.9% 4.1% 2.2% 资本货物 14.8% 9.0% -1.2% -5.9% -4.1% -3.4% -2.6% 3.8% 4.9% 1.1% 电气设备 1.7% -1.6% -11.0% -16.8% -10.3% -11.2% -4.6% 3.6% 1.2% 2.3% 机械 16.1% 1.8% -14.0% -18.0% -17.6% -11.1% -3.6% 4.1% 6.5% 4.9% 商业和专业服务 41.7% 40.8% 32.5% 23.4% -7.4% -11.6% -14.8% -10.4% -8.4% 4.1% 运输 42.9% 39.9% 14.0% -1.7% -10.0% -15.2% -13.0% -6.6% 0.8% 6.6% 可选消费 31.0% 24.7% 12.9% 10.0% 9.7% 10.6% 14.4% 19.3% 19.2% 14.3% 汽车与汽车零部件 29.8% 23.4% 17.4% 25.5% 30.8% 32.4% 38.5% 38.5% 32.2% 17.9% 耐用消费品与服装 11.7% 9.6% 2.5% -1.1% -2.2% -1.4% -1.3% 4.5% 5.8% 3.1% 消费者服务Ⅱ 26.4% 12.0% -5.8% -10.3% -14.2% -8.2% 4.9% 15.0% 24.9% 10.3% 媒体Ⅱ 12.7% 5.9% -7.6% -14.6% -13.9% -9.9% -5.6% 0.1% -0.6% 5.3% 零售业 37.2% 31.2% 15.8% 7.6% 4.2% 3.5% 5.2% 10.9% 12.7% 日常消费 31.5% 17.0% 3.2% -3.5% -8.4% -6.2% -8.2% -5.4% -2.8% 食品与主要用品零售Ⅱ 55.9% 44.8% 17.5% 1.8% -0.4% 2.9% 6.1% 15.1% 9.0% 食品、饮料与烟草 25.6% 10.3% -0.6% -4.9% -10.8% -9.1% -12.8% -12.0% -7.0% 家庭与个人用品 -0.6% -6.6% -7.3% -14.5% -16.0% -10.5% -6.4% 2.9% 6.6% 0%医疗保健

20.0%

16.6%

6.4%

1.8%

-0.3%

1.7%

3.5%

6.8% 6.3%

1.5%

32%医疗保健设备与服务

17.0%

14.0%

3.3%

-1.1%

-2.6%

0.3%

3.6%

7.6%

2.6%

99%制药、生物科技与生命科学

30.9%

25.7%

17.3%

11.8%

7.1%

6.1%

3.2%

4.4%

2.0%

-4.2%

23%金融 10.6% 11.2%

1.8%

-3.7%

-9.6% -11.8%

-19.5%

-10.6%

-16.4%

-18.3%

89%银行 14.7%

20.2%8.4%20.2%

1.7%

-6.1%

-9.0%

-11.9%

-6.5%

-3.6%

-4.1%

88%多元金融

29.4%

25.3%

0.9%

-8.4%

-29.1%

-31.8%

-24.8%

-22.7%

-7.8%

-5.8%

84%保险Ⅱ

4.2%

0.7%

-4.6%

-8.7%

-10.2%

-27.3%

-13.6%

-31.9%

-36.0%

96%房地产

12.7%

4.9%

0.9%

-3.0%

-4.9%

1.0%

-5.3%

-9.8%

-4.5%

-12.9%

15%信息技术

26.5%

21.6%

7.2%

-1.5%

-5.8% -5.7%

-4.5%

1.0%

2.8%

-11.2% 1%软件与服务

22.5%

18.3%

5.0%

-4.3%

-7.0%

-4.5%

-1.5%

6.9%

8.2% 0%技术硬件与设备

30.7%

21.1%

1.3%

-7.6%

-15.5%

-17.0%

-15.4%

-10.2%

-3.7%

-2.7%

15%半导体与半导体生产设备

56.0%

68.5%

62.3%

55.0%

33.1%

10.9%

-4.9%

-13.9%

-50.3% 5%电信服务

13.2%

14.2%

6.0%

1.3%-0.1% -0.3% 0.7% 0.4%1.3%

5.5%

4.9%

1.2%

100%公用事业

20.5%

21.6%

12.0%

7.9%

4.1%

0.6%

1.9%

1.2%

-0.1%

97%全部港美中概股（去重，非金融地产）

26.9%

26.2%

13.0%

5.5%

1.8%

-0.4%

-1.7%

2.9%

1.8%

-2.1%

40%全部港美中概股（去重）

21.8% 21.4%

9.6%

2.8%

-1.4%

-3.4%

-6.4%

-0.9%

-2.8%

-6.8%

55%注1：考虑港股一季报并非强制披露，一季报主要的公布结构（能源、可选消费、金融和信息技术为主，可参考附录）与当前披露率决定当前一季报数据仅能对上游能源板块形成数据交叉验证左右。注2：图中披露率为市值披露率，基准为2024/5/3的市值资料来源：，图表10：当前一季报来看，归母净利润情况亦显示能源与材料行业盈利情况或在1Q24进一步承压全部港美中资股一级分类二级分类 三级分类2021-12-312022-03-312022-06-302022-09-302022-12-312023-03-312023-06-302023-09-302023-12-312024-03-31当前披露率能源149.8%52.5% 16.6% 33.7% 24.2% 12.5%-6.8% -4.0% -5.7% -9.6%96%材料金属、非金属与采矿化工建材Ⅲ容器与包装纸与林木产品48.4%41.3%14.0%-3.9%-16.1%-29.0%-41.2%-38.0% -38.2%-41.6%-45.8%96%195.5% 165.4%74.9% 40.0% 33.1%4.3%-22.9% -26.2%-37.7%96%58.8% 59.4% 100.1% 162.0% 197.5% 211.0%13792.9%-511.9%34.0%0%4.3%-3.2%-18.7%-184.5%-92.1%-1.5%-34.7%-56.0%-63.3% -64.1%-56.0%-34.9%-24.9%94%-137.9% -131.2%-4332.2%217.2% 218.0%162.0%113.0%-435.9%0%26.9%-61.3%-97.0% -91.2% -118.0%-361.2%-971.2%-741.3%-357.5%100%工业资本货物电气设备机械商业和专业服务运输62.3%33.8%-26.0% -26.0%-28.4%-22.6%-1.7%14.3%20.9%74%-5.6%-15.4%-17.9%-28.9%-2.2%3.4% 3.9%19.3%5.6%49.3%9.5%-1.8%81%-93.8% -96.2%-50.3%-62.2%621.2%1102.4%53.4%123.1%-22.5%61%-6.6%-22.6%-42.0%-56.3%-32.0%-21.8%-3.9%31.8%15.2%100%29.2%21.1%14.5%37.7%-8.1%-46.2% -56.3% -67.8% -68.7%-46.5%-268.1%19%11551.6%353.2%-21.1%-59.1%-66.4%-59.8%-33.9%45.1% 103.9%68%可选消费汽车与汽车零部件耐用消费品与服装消费者服务Ⅱ媒体Ⅱ零售业-67.0% -73.0%-53.4%34.6%198.7%336.5%222.7%109.9% 102.8%20.8%22.2%27%15.5%-1.4%5.3%48.6% 45.4% 47.2% 42.4% 47.1%66.1%61%52.4%83.2%30.0%6.5%9.1%3.3% 4.0% 3.3%8.2%11.8% 10.8%100%-0.2%-34.9%-47.0%-17.6%-63.5%-41.2%-2.8%64.0%177.8%33.2%60%-17.8%-24.4% -26.0%8.4%221.6%33.4%40.7% 44.1%28.4%7.3%3%0%0%0%0%0%-156.6% -162.6% -150.4%3046.7%49.0%297.3% 579.7% 345.5%168.6%日常消费食品与主要用品零售Ⅱ食品、饮料与烟草家庭与个人用品170.4%209.2%115.0%-3.6%-26.4% -27.1% -25.8%-6.6%-51.0%-38.0%-1.8%44.7% 43.0%50.5% 51.1%29.3%7.1%147.5%177.2%96.1%34.2%-8.5%-28.9% -29.2% -26.2%-6.5%-27.2%-36.9%7.3%-34.6%-13.4%36.4%-2.7%37.2%-42.7%医疗保健医疗保健设备与服务制药、生物科技与生命科学54.5%2.0%-12.5%-9.5%-15.7%-21.0%-15.0%3.6% 2.8%39.1%13.7%-20.6%-16.0%328.2%-8.1%-11.6%0.7%13.1%-1.7%2.8%-9.0%99%146.1%14.2%-30.4% -28.7%-5.5%8.1%84.8%41.9%-24.5%23%金融银行多元金融保险Ⅱ13.3%11.0%0.2%-6.5%-7.8%-4.8% -4.7%-1.1%0.8%1.0%-4.8%-2.2%89%15.7%38.8%18.0%5.7%-1.4%-2.4%-3.5%-2.9%-29.7%1.1%88%19.8%-3.2%-22.0%-35.8%-29.2%-19.2%-12.4%-30.5%84%-11.9%-28.0% -27.8% -27.8%-25.9%4.3%-0.7%-7.4%7.3%-10.7%96%房地产-48.4%-53.3%-59.5%-55.3%-18.6%4.3%5.2%27.2%23.1%-9.3%-55.8%-48.1%15%信息技术软件与服务技术硬件与设备半导体与半导体生产设备93.2%114.9%56.3%77.4%2.7%16.4%35.2%18.4%41.0% 42.2%50.3% 50.6%-10.6%1%0%14.5%10.0%23.7%-12.7%12.2%-39.6%-68.3% -71.7%-60.7%-15.9%11.7%51.2%147.3%137.2%3.8%15%155.3%211.1%102.4%80.4%54.8%-11.8%-37.9%-54.9%-89.4%5%电信服务24.7%26.1%7.4%2.0%0.7% 0.9%3.1%7.4%9.3%125.5%6.4%100%公用事业-85.6%-125.5% -131.4%-118.5%294.7% 340.7% 396.7%1174.5%100.2%97%全部港美中概股（去重，非金融地产）53.5%23.2%-1.1%5.3%6.8%9.3% 8.0% 15.4%5.6%-4.6%40全部港美中概股（去重）22.0%13.5%-1.2%-3.5% -3.4%-0.2% -0.3%4.6% 2.3%-5.2%55%注1：考虑港股一季报并非强制披露，一季报主要的公布结构（能源、可选消费、金融和信息技术为主，可参考附录）与当前披露率决定当前一季报数据仅能对上游能源板块形成数据交叉验证左右。注2：图中披露率为市值披露率，基准为2024/5/3的市值资料来源：，不过从非金融地产部门经营性现金流（OCF）增速来看，其相对表现良好，与归母净利润表现形成较大差异，最大的区别在于软件与服务——行业权重股的投资性损益造成了利润增速和经营性现金流增速的分歧。（结构数据详见后文）图表11：非金融地产海外中资股的经营性现金流量净额（OCF）底部拐点或亦在1H23确立

全部港美中概股（去重，非金融地产）OCF增速全部港美中概股（去重，非金融地产）归母净利润增速

120%100%80%60%40%20%0%1H182H181H192H191H202H201H212H211H222H221H232H23-10% -20%1H182H181H192H191H202H201H212H211H222H221H232H23资料来源：，ROETTMROEROE资产周转率和库存周转率皆有比较明显的提升。前者对应港股重资产行业产能供给侧的相ROE拖累。图表12：非金融地产海外中资股ROETTM杜邦拆解非金融地产港美中资股净利率非金融地产港美中资股ROE(RHS)非金融地产港美中资股净利率非金融地产港美中资股ROE(RHS)7% 6% 5% 4%

14%ROERHS)10%1H111H121H131H141H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H231H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H23

整体港美中资股ROE

非金融地产港美中资股ROE非金融地产港美中资股ROE(RHS)13%12%11%10%1H111H121H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H23

80%70%60%50%40%30%

非金融地产港美中资股总资产周转率非金融地产港美中资股ROE(RHS)

14%12%10%1H111H121H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H23

500%450%400%350%300%

14%ROE(RHS)10%1H111H121H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H233.23.02.82.62.4

非金融地产港美中资股权益乘数非金融地产港美中资股非金融地产港美中资股权益乘数非金融地产港美中资股ROE(RHS)

14%ROE(RHS)10%1H111H121H131H141H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H231H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H23

负债合计非金融地产港美中资股ROE(RHS)

14%12%10%1H111H121H131H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H23资料来源：，ROE/OCFROE改善明显考虑投资性损益带来的信息扰动和港股整体结构特点，对于非金融地产部门，我们拟采用ROETTM和经营性现金流双视角为锚，寻找港股行业中具备盈利亮点的板块。先看经营性现金流（TTM）同比增速，同比增速改善的行业主要聚集在可选消费和信息技OCF增速自2（皆不低于%/需求侧逐步见底回暖。对于信息技术部门，软件与服务（含互联网游戏）的经营性现金流高增反应明显的经营改善（此处不含投资性损益。图表13：经营性现金流视角下，改善明显的行业主要聚集在可选消费和信息技术全部港美中资股一级分类二级分类 三级分类 1H18 2H18 1H19 2H19 1H20 2H20 1H21 2H21 1H22 2H22 1H23 2H232H23环比1H23环比当前分位数趋势图差分 差分

自2H11工业可选消费

金属、非金属与采矿化工建材Ⅲ容器与包装纸与林木产品资本货物商业和专业服务运输

电气设备机械

16.2%68.1%53.0%14.7%83.7%677.2%878.7%6.1%10.8%-125.2%92.4%-352.4%-1.6%-6.2%

-4.2%42.5%-6.4%73.0%148.0%-101.0%-9.8%-15.1%398.1%2.7%-50.9%1.7%-10.0%

-10.1%7.8%-24.8%43.7%59.3%-32.0%32.8%-13.3%-26.3%-11.0%-62.3%17.5%22.6%

-7.5%4.9%-20.2%4.8%31.6%-13.6%34.3%35.8%105.8%44.7%-146.7%33.4%42.1%

-11.6%13.1%7.6%-7.3%22.0%4.9%-5.4%26.4%62.3%52.7%-33.2%-24.4%19.7%

-1.8%10.0%23.0%5.8%-3.0%-0.5%15.3%-6.8%-3.7%61.3%34.5%

20.8%19.9%46.7%-7.3%3.2%-39.4%25.8%-37.3%-81.9%-9.8%87.8%96.5%56.0%

35.1%22.4%71.5%84.7%-15.1%29.9%-21.5%-21.1%-82.1%-3.5%171.3%149.9%29.6%

32.2%-4.6%22.0%68.7%-31.6%10.7%-64.7%136.0%420.5%-7.6%666.1%56.0%19.5%

-2.8%-28.7%-15.0%1.9%-51.7%-11.8%-61.0%80.0%463.0%-14.5%219.2%1.4%12.5%

-8.6%-7.5%23.2%64.3%30.9%

2.6%8.5%8.3%18.8%50.7%18.4%19.2%45.4%53.6%

14.7% -9.3%37.8% -0.6%32.0% -8.7%-20.6% -10.5%63.4% 7.1%58.1% 4.4%36.1% 43.3%-13.4%-113.3%-22.9%-499.0%-73.4%-2318.6%40.4% -6.7%-18.8%-155.0%-2.6% -32.9%22.7% 18.4%

50%42%42%13%63%75%67%4%13%21%54%54%4%79%汽车与汽车零部件

1.4%

-21.3%

-27.4%

28.7%

23.0%

17.4%

43.3%

75%耐用消费品与服装

6.6%

28.5%

-15.2%

-35.4%

-24.6%

17.4%

18.7%

79%消费者服务Ⅱ

18.3%

-7.4%

16.3%

-10.9%-10.6%

51.3%

-38.4%

-37.4%

58.9%

100%媒体Ⅱ

745.9%

93.3%

-16.7%-14.7%

40.4%

28.6%

-7.8%

-35.0%

-27.1%

17%零售业

-39.1%

-24.2%

55.5%

-13.8%

-4.3%

53.2%

-15.6%

42%日常消费

4.2%

8.7%

3.7%

13.9%

2.3%

-3.0%

-1.2% -0.3%

0.9% 13.6%

38%食品与主要用品零售Ⅱ

45.5%

6.1%

-33.8%

6.3%

-54.6%

-66.4%

-92.0%

-25.6%-199.5% 0%食品、饮料与烟草

3.3%

11.4%

-3.9%

-18.4%

2.1%

0.5%

42%家庭与个人用品

-56.6%

92.9%101.1%1199.0%11412.9%

34.6%

-79.2%

-20.6%

-206.8%

-75964.1%76114.1%

83%医疗保健

26.0% 12.9%

-29.1%

14.4%

35.3% 32.2%

42%医疗保健设备与服务

372.2%

-39.6%

184.0%194.5%

-4.3%

40.9%

-14.9%

-54.8%

33.3%

-102.5%

33%制药、生物科技与生命科学

49.7%

28.4%

-4.9%

-12.7%

-14.1%

-23.3%

-66.3%

-39.1%

60.4%

50%信息技术

29.5%

-9.6%

6.5%

14.5%

-3.7%

-11.6%

0.3%

42.9%

17.1% 25.5%

83%软件与服务

19.3%

-4.1%

-3.1%

-11.9%

-14.2%

-12.3%

23.5%

34.1%

100%技术硬件与设备

529.8%

-92.8%

-57.7%

-54.3%-57.7%

67.4%280.5%

213.0%

83%半导体与半导体生产设备

39.6%

-7.3% -3.2%

-20.6%

82.9%

-39.5%

-54.6%-133.7% 8%电信服务

-0.1%

-8.9%

-4.5%

19.0%

6.2%

-3.5%

-2.5%

9.1% 2.6%

25%公用事业

9.1%

6.1% 7.7%

14.0%

8.0% 8.7%

44.8%

7.3%

-37.5% -38.3%

38%全部港美中概股（去重，非金融地产）OCF增速资料来源：，

13.4%

-2.6% -3.5%

13.1%

11.4%

10.8%

13.2%

10.3%

18.1%

5.2%

-8.3%

1.5%

9.9% -13.5%

29%再看O（TTM对于OOE不低且稳定？ROE环比改善比较明显？ROE1H22（是当前港股高股息的主要品种（前提是需求不弱1Q24ROE（重点看含有互联网电商的零售业ROE环比变化&固定资产/存货周转率亦双双提升，后者与负债端数据交叉验证：杠杆率略升下有息负债占比明显下降，或对应产业链话语权/现金管理能力提升（当然，这个因素也会体现在利润率中图表14：ROETTM视角下，环比改善明显的行业主要为化工、公用和可选消费类品种一级分类能源一级分类能源全部港美中资股二级分类三级分类1H185.9%2H186.5%1H196.7%2H196.6%1H202.6%2H203.8%1H218.5%2H21 1H22 2H22 1H238.6% 10.7% 11.6% 10.9%2H2311.1%2H23环比1H23环比当前分位数趋势图0.1%-0.7%H1188%材料9.3%9.1%8.3%7.3%6.4%8.5% 10.5% 10.5% 9.8%7.8%5.4%5.6%0.2% -2.4%46%金属、非金属与采矿7.5%6.2%4.6%2.6%1.8%4.8%8.3%9.4% 10.1% 8.9%6.0%6.1%0.0% -2.9%67%化工3.2%7.4%7.2%6.1%4.5%3.0%6.6%8.0%8.2% 10.6% 9.6% 14.4% 4.7% -1.0%100%建材Ⅲ14.9% 16.8% 17.4% 17.5% 16.1% 17.0% 15.5% 13.6% 10.5% 5.9%4.2%3.9% -0.3% -1.7%4%容器与包装6.9% -2.6% 1.1%1.3% -1.1% -3.8% -2.8% -6.1% -11.8%-17.4%-22.5%-22.7%-0.2% -5.1%0%纸与林木产品11.8% 6.8%2.8%3.8%4.2%3.2%8.7%7.2%0.6%0.8% -3.5% -0.6% 2.9% -4.2%4%工业7.0%6.6%6.9%7.3%5.5%5.7%7.1%6.4%6.7%6.2%5.3%5.6%0.3% -0.9%17%资本货物8.6%8.4%8.6%8.9%7.6%8.9%8.9%7.3%6.3%6.7%6.7%7.2%0.6% -0.1%17%电气设备6.2%5.8%6.0%6.0%5.3%6.7%4.2% -0.4% -1.1% 1.4%3.7%3.8%0.1%2.3%21%机械8.7%8.4%9.4%9.4%9.6% 12.4% 12.1% 8.8%5.7%5.7%6.5%7.7%1.3%0.8%46%商业和专业服务10.2% 8.0%7.5%7.9%8.2%9.4%9.5%7.7%6.6%6.3%6.4%5.7% -0.6% 0.0%0%运输4.7%4.1%4.5%5.0%2.2%0.6%4.3%4.9%7.1%5.5%3.5%3.3% -0.1% -2.0%29%可选消费6.1% -1.2% 1.6%6.7%4.7%5.2%6.1%3.3%3.1%4.5%6.2%8.3%2.1%1.8%63%汽车与汽车零部件11.1% 9.2%8.4%5.8%4.8%5.0%7.1%5.4%4.0%4.9%5.3%6.9%1.6%0.4%29%耐用消费品与服装11.2% 10.4% 11.4% 12.9% 9.4% 11.9% 15.7% 12.8% 11.1% 8.4%8.1%9.8%1.7% -0.3%42%消费者服务Ⅱ6.4%6.8%6.4%7.2%2.4%3.0%5.5%2.8%1.4%0.5%2.5%4.4%1.9%2.0%33%媒体Ⅱ10.3% 1.1%3.6%5.1%1.8% -5.8% -0.8% 3.4%4.4%3.5%4.8%5.1%0.3%1.3%71%零售业-18.2%-65.9%-28.5% 4.2%4.1%5.9%1.3% -3.6% -1.1% 4.8%9.5% 12.9% 3.4%4.7%96%日常消费2.5%2.6%2.2%4.5%4.0%4.8%5.2%5.2%5.2%5.2%5.0%4.8% -0.2% -0.2%58%食品与主要用品零售Ⅱ-2.0% -5.7% -7.0% -10.3%-15.7%-30.5%-14.8%-20.6%-18.3%-11.5%-12.4%-17.9%-5.5% -0.9%13%食品、饮料与烟草2.7%2.8%2.4%4.6%4.3%5.1%5.5%5.3%5.3%5.2%5.1%4.9% -0.2% -0.2%54%家庭与个人用品-3.4% -13.4%-18.1%17.4% -0.6% 42.4% -4.7% 40.3% 3.4% 30.6% 28.8% 24.9% -3.8% -1.8%83%医疗保健10.1% 8.1%7.8%5.2%4.6%4.1%7.7%7.1%4.1%1.7%2.0%2.7%0.6%0.3%8%医疗保健设备与服务9.1%7.5%8.6%7.7%7.4%7.3%7.6%4.6%5.1%4.2%4.6%5.3%0.7%0.4%17%制药、生物科技与生命科学10.5% 8.3%7.5%4.4%3.8%3.1%7.7%7.7%3.9%1.3%1.6%2.2%0.6%0.3%8%信息技术8.8%8.0%8.4%6.3%3.9%5.2%6.1%5.6%5.0%6.5%7.4%5.2% -2.2% 0.9%17%软件与服务18.2% 11.3% 13.0% 9.0%4.0%6.1%7.0%6.6%6.2%9.1% 11.9% 8.7% -3.2% 2.8%21%技术硬件与设备-13.0%63.1% 14.7% 11.3% 11.8% 15.0% 16.7% 10.5% 4.9%4.0%6.1%8.4%2.3%2.0%63%半导体与半导体生产设备1.2%0.8%0.4%0.8%0.9%0.7%1.8%2.7%3.5%4.1%3.2%1.4% -1.9% -0.8%46%电信服务7.6%6.9%6.7%6.5%6.5%7.0%6.8%6.7%6.7%6.6%7.1%7.6%0.4%0.6%50%公用事业7.9%6.2%6.4%6.8%6.4%6.9%8.1%4.6%1.4%4.5%5.6%7.0%1.4%1.2%46%全部港美中概股（去重，非金融地产）7.1%6.1%6.4%6.7%4.8%5.5%7.4%6.5%6.4%6.7%6.7%6.8%0.2%0.0%63%全部港美中概股（去重）9.3%8.5%8.8%9.2%7.5%8.1%8.4%7.6%6.8%6.7%6.5%7.1%0.6% -0.2%13%注：对于部分行业，尽管数据或许还可以，但综合考虑海外中资股权重结构、标的可投资性和市场流动性，在此仅作数据展示。资料来源：，图表15：零售业ROE杜邦拆解-1%-3%-5%

零售业港美中资股净利率

ROEROERHS)15%10%-5%1H111H121H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H23

零售业港美中资股固定资产周转率

零售业港美中资股ROE(RHS)零售业港美中资股ROE(RHS)15%10%-5%1H111H121H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H2314%13%12%11%10%

非金融地产港美中资股ROE

ROEROERHS)15%10%-5%1H111H121H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H23

200%180%160%140%120%100%80%60%

零售业港美中资股总资产周转率

零售业港美中资股ROE(RHS)零售业港美中资股ROE(RHS)15%10%-5%1H111H121H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H23

1450%1250%1050%850%650%450%

零售业港美中资股存货周转率

零售业港美中资股ROE(RHS)零售业港美中资股ROE(RHS)15%10%-5%1H111H121H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H23

零售业港美中资股权益乘数

零售业港美中资股ROE(RHS)零售业港美中资股ROE(RHS)15%10%-5%1H111H121H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H23

零售业港美中资股ROE(RHS)20%零售业港美中资股ROE(RHS)15%10%-5%1H111H121H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H231H111H121H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H23

零售业港美中资股有息负债占比负债合计零售业港美中资股零售业港美中资股ROE(RHS)

20%15%10%-5%-10%资料来源：，图表16：公用事业ROE杜邦拆解

公用事业港美中资股净利率公用事业港美中资股公用事业港美中资股净利率公用事业港美中资股ROE(RHS)1H111H121H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H23

ROERHS)1H111H121H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H2314%13%12%11%10%

非金融地产港美中资股ROE

ROEROERHS)12%10%1H111H121H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H23

34%32%30%28%26%24%22%20%

率ROE

15%10%1H111H121H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H23

800%700%600%500%400%300%

ROE

14%12%10%1H111H121H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H234.54.34.13.93.73.5

公用事业港美中资股权益乘数公用事业港美中资股公用事业港美中资股权益乘数公用事业港美中资股ROE(RHS)1H111H121H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H23

ROE(RHS)1H111H121H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H231H111H121H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H23

公用事业港美中资股有息负债占比负债合计公用事业港美中资股ROE(RHS)

14%12%10%资料来源：，资本开支：结构上寻找具备产能供给优势或压力下降双主线先以固定资产周转率衡量当前静态产能利用率，寻找最高与最低的标的。整体来看，当前（与服务部门固定资产周转率分位数较低。其中，对于前者，重点结合资本开支情况考察其远期产能供给结构；对于后者，先结合资本开支（是否低资本开支）情况判定产能供给侧状况、进一步结合需求侧考察是否存在新一轮资本开支周期（若没有资本开支则或出现潜在的分红/回购中枢提升）的可能性。图表17：中上游与可选消费固定资产周转率历史分位数（自1H11）高、医疗与信息技术板块固定资产周转率历史分位数较低一级分类二级分类三级分类1H182H181H192H191H202H201H212H211H222H221H232H232H23环比差分1H23环比差分能源28%44%64%60%40%32%52%80%88%92%96%100%4%4%材料28%32%36%44%48%64%84%96%92%76%72%80%8%-4%金属、非金属与采矿24%28%32%40%44%52%68%80%88%84%72%76%4%-12%化工52%80%84%72%36%44%48%68%64%32%16%56%40%-16%建材Ⅲ52%72%80%88%84%100%96%92%76%64%60%68%8%-4%容器与包装100%92%76%80%40%72%84%88%60%56%64%68%4%8%纸与林木产品92%44%20%48%52%72%96%88%68%76%60%64%4%-16%工业资本货物商业和专业服务运输电气设备机械12%4%16%44%48%68%92%96%76%80%88%84%-4%8%48%44%60%64%68%96%100%92%80%84%88%76%-12%4%64%40%48%88%68%100%92%44%12%32%72%0%-72%40%28%40%56%60%72%84%88%80%48%44%64%76%12%20%28%52%60%76%80%96%92%88%84%64%68%72%4%4%12%24%20%32%8%28%44%80%72%76%56%52%-4%-20%可选消费56%44%48%64%52%92%100%96%84%76%80%88%8%4%汽车与汽车零部件64%48%40%36%24%56%76%72%60%84%92%96%4%8%耐用消费品与服装52%56%36%28%12%60%68%80%32%24%44%16%-28%20%消费者服务Ⅱ24%36%32%48%20%44%56%52%28%8%16%40%24%8%媒体Ⅱ56%64%60%92%84%100%88%96%76%80%72%68%-4%-8%零售业64%48%52%72%80%96%100%92%84%68%60%88%28%-8%日常消费0%24%12%56%52%60%64%68%48%40%44%32%-12%4%食品与主要用品零售Ⅱ16%48%64%76%68%100%72%96%84%80%88%92%4%8%食品、饮料与烟草0%24%12%52%56%60%68%64%48%40%44%28%-16%4%家庭与个人用品0%4%20%88%40%92%32%96%84%52%64%56%-8%12%医疗保健68%52%64%56%36%32%24%16%12%8%4%0%-4%-4%医疗保健设备与服务44%60%80%88%84%96%92%76%52%48%72%56%-16%24%制药、生物科技与生命科学72%64%68%60%56%48%52%44%32%12%4%0%-4%-8%信息技术64%72%60%84%56%100%76%92%48%32%8%0%-8%-24%软件与服务88%92%24%80%52%96%36%32%8%4%20%28%8%16%技术硬件与设备84%56%60%64%68%88%100%96%72%52%40%44%4%-12%半导体与半导体生产设备60%36%24%12%4%8%16%20%32%40%28%0%-28%-12%电信服务68%4%20%24%32%84%80%72%76%92%96%100%4%4%公用事业24%32%44%64%48%68%72%84%80%92%96%100%4%4%全部港美中概股（去重，非金融地产）24%36%44%64%48%68%80%92%84%88%96%100%4%8%注：表中中间数字为固定资产周转率历史分位数，历史分位数的计算自1H11至2H23，右侧两列为分位数的环比差分。计算历史分位数可便于跨行业比较。资料来源：，先看高固定资产周转率历史分位数（TTM口径，下同）的行业。对于港股上游能源与中游材料领域，其资本开支情况展现出一定的分化。对于能源行业，其资本开支比折旧摊销（Capex/D&A，TTM口径，下同）1.5Capex/D&A较（前提是需求不弱优势比材料更高。港股中游制造（此处需注意，港股中游不是市场主要结构、且成分和A股差异或较大）方面，以资本货物为主的工业部门和可选消费中的汽车（汽车业亦有中游制造属性）固定资产周转率历史分位数自高位边际下滑，进一步结合考虑其产能投放（资本性开支/折旧摊销历史分位数）仍处于历史高位区间、且绝对读数也很大，港股中游制造部门或仍将面临较大的产能消化压力。（含互联网电商（高于%且边际提升、和相对不高的资本开支情况（Capex/D&A231.5左右且历史分位数不高于%，在当前时点或亦存在供给优势。此外，电信与公用事业或亦具备一定供给优势，其固定资产周转率皆至历史高位、且资本/D&A40%Capex/D&A绝。图表18：资本开支比折旧摊销，绝对数值水位全部港美中资股一级分类二级分类三级分类1H182H181H192H191H202H201H212H211H222H221H232H232H23环比1H23环比能源0.911.061.181.311.291.161.181.181.201.221.381.34-3.3%13.1%材料1.181.091.161.441.441.461.841.871.911.891.791.832.3%-5.2%金属、非金属与采矿1.070.931.001.171.171.191.441.401.361.421.551.7210.9%9.4%化工1.611.551.612.052.232.072.262.642.932.361.921.66-13.5%-18.5%建材Ⅲ1.291.411.622.242.232.233.093.203.443.402.612.32-11.1%-23.1%容器与包装2.562.131.752.752.431.582.112.141.651.511.291.22-5.7%-14.1%纸与林木产品42.4451.3732.2215.4112.314.826.4211.4118.4911.332.755.0182.5%-75.8%工业2.982.922.682.042.302.312.122.021.881.641.912.1110.9%16.1%资本货物3.203.042.993.203.153.503.884.184.173.963.923.80-2.9%-0.9%电气设备2.642.522.834.073.825.955.816.668.889.108.877.04-20.6%-2.5%机械1.932.292.524.874.644.415.165.465.214.894.896.7437.8%-0.1%商业和专业服务4.124.234.524.013.593.133.202.962.641.941.691.817.1%-13.2%运输2.852.842.501.541.941.861.461.331.190.991.341.6421.9%35.4%可选消费2.011.901.771.361.291.241.331.411.621.902.122.245.5%11.8%汽车与汽车零部件2.372.122.2