拉丁美洲经济委员会-美国经济展望：2023年回顾和2024年初发展

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economicoutlook

2023year-in-reviewand

early2024developments

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ECONOMICCOMMISSION

FORLATINAMERICA

ECLACOfficeinWashington,D.C.

ANDTHECARIBBEAN

UnitedStates

economicoutlook

2023year-in-reviewandearly2024developments

ThisdocumentwaspreparedbyHelviaVelloso,EconomicAffairsOfficer,underthesupervisionofAndrésValenciano,ActingChiefoftheEconomicCommissionforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean(ECLAC)officeinWashington,D.C.

Unlessotherwiseindicated,thecut-offdatefortheinformationusedtopreparethisreportis10April2024.

TheUnitedNationsandthecountriesitrepresentsassumenoresponsibilityforthecontentoflinkstoexternalsitesinthispublication.

MentionofanyfirmnamesandcommercialproductsorservicesdoesnotimplyendorsementbytheUnitedNationsorthecountriesitrepresents..

Theviewsexpressedinthisdocument,whichhasbeenreproducedwithoutformalediting,arethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheOrganizationorthecountriesitrepresents.

UnitedNationspublication

LC/WAS/TS.2024/2

Distribution:L

Copyright©UnitedNations,2024

Allrightsreserved

PrintedatUnitedNations,Santiago

S.2400640[E]

Thispublicationshouldbecitedas:EconomicCommissionforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean(ECLAC),UnitedStateseconomicoutlook:2023year-in-reviewandearly2024developments(LC/WAS/TS.2024/2),Santiago,2024.

ApplicationsforauthorizationtoreproducethisworkinwholeorinpartshouldbesenttotheEconomicCommissionforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean(ECLAC),DocumentsandPublicationsDivision,publicaciones.cepal@.MemberStatesandtheirgovernmentalinstitutionsmayreproducethisworkwithoutpriorauthorizationbutarerequestedtomentionthesourceandtoinformECLACofsuchreproduction.

ECLAC–WashingtonOfficeUnitedStateseconomicoutlook:2023year-in-review…3

Contents

Highlights 5

Overview 7

I.Quarterlydevelopments 15

A.QuarterlyGDPGrowth 16

B.Industrialproduction 18

C.Retailsales 19

D.Labormarket 20

E.Inflation 24

F.Monetarypolicy 25

G.Fiscalpolicy 26

H.Financialconditions 27

I.Externalsector 29

II.ImpactonLatinAmericanandCaribbeanfinancialconditions 31

III.Lookingahead 35

Tables

Table1QuarterlyforecastsforUnitedStateseconomicgrowthinthefirsthalfof2024 11

Table2AnnualforecastsforUnitedStateseconomicgrowth,2024and2025 13

ECLAC–WashingtonOfficeUnitedStateseconomicoutlook:2023year-in-review…4

Figures

Figure1UnitedStatesrealGDPannualgrowthrate,2000–2023 7

Figure2UnitedStates:contributionstopercentchangeinrealGDP,2023 8

Figure3Annualjobcreationandunemployment,2006–2023 8

Figure4UnitedStatesConsumerPriceIndex,2000–2023 9

Figure5UnitedStatesdomesticprices:monthlyevolution,January2020–February2024 10

Figure6UnitedStatesFederalReservetighteningcycles1994–2024YTD 10

Figure7UnitedStatesannualproductivityandunitlaborcosts,2006–2023 12

Figure8ContributionstopercentchangeinrealGDPgrowth,Q42021–Q42023 15

Figure9UnitedStatesrealGDPquarterlygrowth,Q12021–Q42023 16

Figure10UnitedStatespersonalconsumptionexpendituregrowth,Q12018–Q42023 16

Figure11UnitedStatesfixedinvestmentgrowth,Q12018–Q42023 17

Figure12QuarterlycontributionstoU.S.realGDPgrowth,2023 17

Figure13ContributionstopercentchangeinU.S.realGDPbyindustrygroup,2023 18

Figure14UnitedStatesindustrialproductionandmanufacturingoutput,Dec2022–Feb2024 19

Figure15UnitedStatestotalretailsales,Feb2023–Feb2024 19

Figure16UnitedStatesmonthlyjobcreationandunemploymentrate,Dec2020–Mar2024 20

Figure17UnitedStateslaborforceparticipationshareandunemploymentrate,Feb2020–Mar2024.21

Figure18UnitedStateslaborforceparticipationsharebygender,Feb2020–Mar2024 21

Figure19UnitedStatesaveragehourlyearnings,Dec2019–Mar2024 22

Figure20UnitedStatesjobopeningsvsnumberofunemploymentpersons:Dec2000–Feb2024 23

Figure21UnitedStatesproductivityandcosts,2023 23

Figure22UnitedStatesdomesticprices:monthlyevolution,Dec2019–Mar2024 24

Figure23CoregoodsandservicesU.S.domesticprices:monthlyevolution,Jan2020–Mar2024 25

Figure24U.S.federalfundstargetrate,Dec2006–Mar2024 26

Figure25UnitedStatesfederaldeficit,FY,2002–2023 27

Figure26U.S.stockmarketindices,30Dec2022–29Dec2023 28

Figure27U.S.Treasurysecurityyields,30Dec2022–29Apr2024 28

Figure28UnitedStatesbalanceoncurrentaccount,2000–2023 29

Figure29UnitedStatestradedeficitasashareofGDP,2000–2023 30

Figure30AnnualLACsovereignissuanceofdollar-denominateddebtininternationalmarkets

byamount,numberofdealsandinterestrate,2021–2023 31

Figure31MonthlyLACint.bondissuanceand10-yearU.S.Treasuryyield,Dec2020–Jan2024 32

ECLAC–WashingtonOfficeUnitedStateseconomicoutlook:2023year-in-review…5

Highlights

•TheUnitedStatesGrossDomesticProduct(GDP)rose2.5%in2023—wellabovetheeconomy’slong-termgrowthpotential,estimatedat2%—comparedwithanincreaseof1.9%in2022.Theeconomicoutlookimprovedinthesecondhalfoftheyear,withtheeconomygrowing4.9%and3.4%inthethirdandfourthquarters,respectively,comparedto2.2%and2.1%inthefirstandsecondquarters.

•The2023above-potentialgrowthwasdrivenbyaresilientconsumer—consumerspendingcontributed1.5%toannualgrowth—supportedbyastronglabormarketandrecedinginflation.

•Thelabormarketremainedstrongin2023butslowedwhencomparedto2022.Anaverageof251,000newjobswerecreatedpermonth(comparedto377,000in2022)and3millionnewjobswereaddedonanannualbasis(comparedto4.5millionin2022).Theunemploymentratewasat3.7%attheendofDecember.

•Thelabormarkethascontinuedtoshowresiliencewith829millionjobscreatedinthefirstquarterof2024.Theunemploymentratewasat3.8%attheendofMarch.JobsgrewatabriskpaceinMarch2024,with303,000jobsbeingadded,butwagegrowthwascontained.RecentemploymentdatahascontinuedtosupporttheU.S.economicexpansionwithoutfanninginflation.

•Inflationin2023washalfofthelevelin2022,decliningfromanannualrateof8%in2022to4.1%in2023.TheConsumerPriceIndex(CPI)slowedto3.4%inDecember2023from6.5%inDecember2022,butroseto3.5%inMarch2024,from3.2%inFebruary.CoreCPI,whichexcludesthevolatileenergyandfoodcategories,declinedto3.9%inDecember2023from5.7%inDecember2022,andto3.8%inMarch2024,thelowestlevelsinceMay2021.However,Marchwasthethirdconsecutive0.4%month-on-monthgainincoreCPI,diminishinghopesforaJuneinterestratecut.

•TheFederalReserveraisedinterestratesfourtimesin2023,withquarter-pointincreasesinJanuary,March,May,andJuly2023,buthasleftitspolicyrateunchangedsincethenatarangeof5.25%to5.50%,thehighestlevelsince2001.

•GiventhestrengthoftheU.S.economy,itisuncertainwhentheFederalReservewillstarttocutrates.AccordingtotheFederalOpenMarketCommittee(FOMC)’ssummaryofeconomicprojectionsreleasedinMarch,10outof19membersexpectatleastthreeratecutsbytheendof2024.Astheinflationdatahascomeaboveexpectationssincethestartof2024,marketsnowexpectnocutsuntillaterin2024.

ECLAC–WashingtonOfficeUnitedStateseconomicoutlook:2023year-in-review…6

•Despitehighinterestratelevels,theUnitedStateseconomyremainsresilient.AccordingtotheMarch2024BankofAmerica’sGlobalFundManagerSurvey,investorsviewa“softlanding”asthenewbasecase,whilebetsona“nolanding”scenario,whereGDPremainsstrong,areontherise.

•Evenasrecessionfearsfade,risksaroundtheUnitedStateseconomicoutlookremain,suchasthepossibilityofinterestratesbeingcuttoosoonortoolate,concernsabouttheU.S.fiscalposition,andgeopoliticalrisks.

ECLAC–WashingtonOfficeUnitedStateseconomicoutlook:2023year-in-review…7

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

-4

Overview

TheUnitedStatesGrossDomesticProduct(GDP)rose2.5%in2023,abovetheeconomy’slong-termgrowthpotentialandthe1.9%growthin2022(figure1).ConsumerspendingwasthemaindriveroftheGDPincreasein2023,contributing1.51%toannualgrowth.GDPgrowthin2023wasalsosupportedbytrade,governmentspendingandnon-residentialinvestment,whichcomprisesbusinessstructures,businessequipment,andintellectualpropertyproducts(figure2).Stimulativefiscalpolicies,includinginfrastructurespendingandanarrayoftaxcredits,haveencouragedgovernmentandbusinessinvestment.

Figure1

UnitedStatesrealGDPannualgrowthrate,2000-2023

(Percentage,notseasonallyadjusted)

5.8

4.1

3.8

3.5

2.82.82.7

2.5

2.9

2.5

3.0

2.52.5

2.1

2.0

2.1

1.7

1.81.9

1.6

2.3

1.0

0.1

-2.2

-2.6

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

AnnualrealGDPgrowthPotentialannualGDPgrowth

Source:UnitedStatesBureauofEconomicAnalysis,U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.

ECLAC–WashingtonOfficeUnitedStateseconomicoutlook:2023year-in-review…8

0.27

-0.01

-0.34

-0.48

1.51

0.57

0.43

0.37

3,013

Figure2

UnitedStates:contributionstopercentchangeinrealGDP,2023

(Percentagepoints,seasonallyadjustedatannualrates)

PCE

Netexports

Stateandlocalgovernment

Businessstructures

FederalgovernmentspendingIntellectualpropertyproducts

Businessequipment

Changeininventories

Residentialinvestment

0.24

-0.50-0.250.000.250.500.751.001.251.50

Source:ECLACWashingtonOfficebasedondatafromtheBureauofEconomicAnalysis,U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.PCE:PersonalConsumptionExpenditures.

Theresilienceofconsumerspendingwassupportedbyastronglabormarketandrecedinginflation.Anaverageof251,000newjobswerecreatedpermonthand3millionnewjobswereaddedin2023(figure3).Theunemploymentratewentupfromarecordlowof3.4%inJanuaryto3.7%inDecember2023.Thelabormarkethascontinuedtoshowresilience,with829millionjobsaddedinthefirstthreemonthsof2024.Theunemploymentratewasat3.8%attheendofMarch,continuingastreakofbelow4%readingsthathaslastedformorethantwoyears.

Figure3

Annualjobcreationandunemployment,2006-2023

(Annualjobgrowthinthousands(leftaxis);Percentage(rightaxis))

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0

-2,000

-4,000

-6,000

-8,000

-10,000

9.9%

7,245

4,528

6.7%

3.7%

11.0%

9.9%

8.8%

7.7%

6.6%

5.5%

4.4%

3.3%

2.2%

1.1%

0.0%

200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

Payrolljobscreated(leftaxis)Unemploymentrateattheendoftheyear(rightaxis)

Source:ECLACWashingtonOfficebasedondatafromtheUnitedStatesBureauofLaborStatistics.

ECLAC–WashingtonOfficeUnitedStateseconomicoutlook:2023year-in-review…9

9.08.07.06.05.04.03.02.01.00.0

-1.0

0.4

AconsensusisemergingthatimmigrationhasbeenanimportantcontributingfactortowhytheU.S.labormarkethasremainedrobustevenasinterestratesremainata22-yearhigh.CensusfiguresreleasedinMarch2024showedthatacceleratingimmigrationtotheU.S.boostedpopulationgrowth(andlaborsupply)inmajormetropolitanareasin2023.RecentstudiesfromBrookings,athink-tank,toGoldmanSachs,aninvestmentbank,suggestthattheCensusdataactuallyunderstatedtheincreaseinimmigrationin2023.AccordingtotheGoldmanSachsstudy,theriseinimmigrationalsoexplainstheslightclimbinunemploymentrateoverthelastyearfromahistoriclowof3.4%inApril2023.Itreflects“thecombinationofelevatedimmigrationandahigherrateofunemploymentamongstrecentimmigrants,whichisunlikelytotriggeraviciouscycleofjobandincomelossandfurtherunemployment.

”1

Thelabormarketremainsstrongbuthasstartedtocooldown,whichhasbeentheultimategoalofthecurrentmonetarytighteningcycle.AlsoconsistentwiththeFederalReserve’splan,jobopeningshavedecreasedandtherateofjobquits,whichcanserveasameasureofworkers’willingnessorabilitytoleavejobs,hasheldsteadyforfourconsecutivemonthsat2.2%.ThequitsratehasbeentrendingdownsinceApril2022,whenitreached3%.AccordingtotheBureauofLaborStatistics,inthelastbusinessdayofFebruary2024therewerestill8.8millionjobopeningsintheUnitedStates,butdownfromapeakof12millioninMarch2022.Businessesarehangingontotheirworkersandnotresortingtolayoffsbuthavecutsomejobopenings.

Togetherwiththestronglabormarket,moderatinginflationhasalsosupportedconsumerspending.MeasuredbytheConsumerPriceIndex(CPI),inflationwashalvedin2023,goingfromanaverageannualrateof8%in2022to4.1%in2023.Coreprices,whichstripoutvolatilefoodandenergycomponents,declinedfromanaverageannualrateof6.2%in2022to4.8%in2023(figure4).

Figure4

UnitedStatesConsumerPriceIndex,2000-2023

(Annualaverage,percentage,notseasonallyadjusted)

8.0

1.5

6.2

4.74.8

3.8

4.1

3.6

3.2

2.3

1.71.61.7

2.12.1

2.2

1.81.61.71.8

2.11.8

2.42.1

2.2

1.8

1.7

1.0

1.31.2

0.1

2008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

AnnualCPIAnnualCoreCPI

Source:UnitedStatesBureauofLaborStatistics,U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.

TheCPIfiguresarenotthefocusoftheFederalReserve,however.Instead,thecentralbankbasesits2%inflationtargetonthePersonalConsumptionExpenditure(PCE)PriceIndexfromtheCommerceDepartment’smonthlyreportonincomeandspending.Morespecifically,itlooksatthecorePCE,ameasurebywhichinflationisgettingclosertothe2%target(figure5).

1RobinWigglesworth,“ImmigrationhelpsexplainUSeconomicstrength:Goldman”,FTAlphaville-GlobalEconomy,FinancialTimes,18March2024.

ECLAC–WashingtonOfficeUnitedStateseconomicoutlook:2023year-in-review…10

-243.8

-242.8

362.25

Figure5

UnitedStatesdomesticprices:monthlyevolution,January2020-February2024

(CPI-Uunadjusted12monthspercentchange)

7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

Feb

Feb

Jan-20Apr-20Jul-20Oct-20Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23Apr-23Jul-23Oct-23Jan-24CoreCPICorePCEFEDtarget

Source:UnitedStatesBureauofLaborStatistics,LaborDepartmentandBureauofEconomicAnalysis,CommerceDepartment.

ThecompositionofthecorePCEdiffersfromthecoreCPI.ThepriceweightsfordifferentitemsintheCPIdependonhowmuchspendingconsumerssaytheydevotetothem,basedonannualsurveys.PriceweightsinthePCEarebasedonwheremoneyactuallygetsspentbasedonCommerceDepartmentdata.Theprice-weightdifferenceshavebeenparticularlysignificantinhousing.IntheCPI,sheltercostsforhomeownersandrentersaccountforabout34%oftheindex’sweight,comparedtoonly15%ofthePCE.Thegapbetweenthetwomeasureshasbeenparticularlywidesince2022,especiallybecauseofrentandowners’equivalentrent.Inthe60yearsbeforethepandemic,theirmediangapwasjust0.4percentagepoint.

TheFederalReserveraisedinterestratesfourtimesinthefirstsevenmonthsof2023tocombatinflation—therewerequarter-pointinterestrateincreasesinJanuary,March,MayandJuly2023—buthaskeptthemunchangedsinceJuly.InitslatestmeetinginMarch2024,theFedleftitspolicyrateunchangedattherangeof5.25%to5.50%,thehighestlevelsince2001.Thecurrenttighteningcycle,whichstartedinMarch2022,istheUnitedStates’sthirdlongestcycle,soontobecomethesecond,andwiththefastestpaceofincreases(figure6).

Figure6

UnitedStatesFederalReservetighteningcycles1994-2024YTD

(Percentage)

6.00

5.00

4.00

3.00

2.00

1.00

0.00

17

5.25

24

5.25

25

4.25

133.00

12

1.75

0123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536

1994-19951999-20002004-20062016-20182022-2024YTD

Source:ECLACWashingtonOffice,basedondatafromtheUnitedStatesFederalReserve.YTD:year-to-date(asofMarch2024).

ECLAC–WashingtonOfficeUnitedStateseconomicoutlook:2023year-in-review…11

GiventheresilienceoftheU.S.economyinfaceoftherapidincreasesininterestratesin2022andinthefirstsemesterof2023,optimismthattheUnitedStateseconomyisapproachingasoftlanding—thenotionthattheFederalReservewillbeabletoslowtheeconomyandreduceinflationwithoutcausingarecession—isontherise.Asoftlandingwouldbeunusual,sinceinthepast80yearstheFederalReservehasnevermanagedtobringinflationdownsubstantiallywithoutsparkingarecession.AccordingtotheBankofAmerica’sGlobalFundManagerSurveyreleasedinMarch2023,investorsviewa“softlanding”asthenewbasecase,whilebetsona“nolanding”scenario,whereGDPremainsstrong,areontherise

.2

MarketgrowthprojectionssuggestpositiveprospectsfortheU.S.economyinthefirsthalfof2024.Consumerspendingremainssupportiveofeconomicgrowth,whilecontinuedmoderationininflationmayfurtherimproveconsumers’purchasingpower.AccordingtoMoody’s,still-substantialexcesssavingsbuiltupduringthepandemicbymiddle-andespeciallyhigh-incomehouseholdscontinuetosupportspending,whilenear-recordstockpricesandhousingvalues,alongwithstill-lowandstabledebtserviceburdens,arealsosupportiveoftheeconomy

.3

TheU.S.economyisprojectedtogrow2.1%onaverageinthefirstquarterof2024and1.4%inthesecond,accordingtomarketforecasts(table1).Onanannualbasis,averagemarketprojectionspointtogrowthof2.2%in2024andof1.6%in2025,inflationat2.9%in2024and2.3%in2025,unemploymentrateat3.9%in2024and4.2%in2025,andthefederalfundsrateat4.7%in2024and2.6%in2025,withallprojectionsmadeinMarch2024(table2).

Table1

QuarterlyforecastsforUnitedStateseconomicgrowthinthefirsthalfof2024

(Percentagechange)

Q12024(qoq)

Q22024(qoq)

DateofForecast

WhatMarketsSay

BankofAmerica/MerrillLynch

2.5%

2.0%

Mar-24

CapitalEconomics

2.0%

1.5%

Mar-24

JPMorgan

2.3%

1.5%

Mar-24

Moody'sE

2.4%

1.5%

Mar-24

MortgageBankersAssociation

0.9%

0.8%

Mar-24

NationalBankofCanada

2.3%

1.0%

Mar-24

TDBankFinancialGroup

2.1%

1.3%

Mar-24

WellsFargo/Wachovia2.4%1.3%Mar-24

Forecastsaverage2.1%1.4%

Source:ECLACWashingtonOffice,basedonmarketsources.

Despitetheresilienteconomicoutlook,risksremain.Thedownsideriskstogrowthincludethepossibilityofcuttingratestoosoon,worseninginflation(March2024wasthethirdconsecutive0.4%gainincoreCPIonamonth-to-monthbasis),orkeepinginterestrateshigherforlonger,whichcouldeventuallynegativelyimpactconsumerandbusinessspending.Fiscalconcernsareanotherrisktotheoutlook.InNovember2023,Moody’srevisedtheoutlookontheU.S.Government’screditratingstonegative,sayingthatdownsideriskstothecountry’sfiscalstrengthhaveincreased.Givenhigherinterestratesandthelackofeffectivemeasurestoreducepublicspendingorincreaserevenues,theagencysaiditexpectsfiscaldeficitstoremainlarge.

2RobKozlowski,“Fundmanagersgrowmorebullish,raisebetsonequities–BofAsurvey,”Pensions&Investments,19March2024

[online]

/economy/bank-america-fund-managers-survey-shows-global-managers-growing-more-bullish.

3Moody’Analytics,DailyEconomicRoundup,28March2024.

ECLAC–WashingtonOfficeUnitedStateseconomicoutlook:2023year-in-review…12

7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

2023

1.0

0.0

2006-1.0

2023

-2.0

-3.0

-4.0

Thereareupsideriskstotheoutlookaswell.Policytighteningmaynevertakeamajortollonindividualsandbusinesses,consumerspendingmayremainresilientifinflationcontinuesitsdownwardtrend,andanincreaseinproductivitycouldbesupportiveofgrowth.Afterbeingonadownwardtrendsince2020,U.S.laborproductivityincreased1.3%in2023,accordingtotheBureauofLaborStatistics(figure7).Moreimportantly,productivityincreasedatanannualizedrateof3.1%,4.7%and3.2%inthesecond,thirdandfourthquartersof2023,threeconsecutivequarterlyincreasesabovethe1.6%averageproductivitygrowthofthecurrentcycleasdefinedbytheBureauofLaborstatistics(Q42019–Q42023)

.4

Figure7

UnitedStatesannualproductivityandunitlaborcosts,2006-2023

(Percentchange,seasonallyadjusted)

1.3

2007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

ProductivityUnitlaborCosts

Source:UnitedStatesBureauofLaborStatistics,LaborDepartment.

4CurrentcycledefinedbyBureauoflaborStatistics;dataobtainedon5April2024

,/productivity/images/pfei.png

13

ECLAC–WashingtonOfficeUnitedStateseconomicoutlook:2023year-in-review…

Table2

AnnualforecastsforUnitedStateseconomicgrowth,2024and2025

(Percentagechange)

RealGDP

Inflation

Unemployment

FEDFundsRate

(%change,y/y)

(%change,y/y)

Rate(%)

(%)

Dateof

20242025

20242025

20242025

20242025

Forecast

A.WhatGovernmentAgenciesSay

FED1

2.1%2.0%

2.4%2.2%

4.0%4.1%

4.6%3.9%

Mar-24

CBO

1.8%2.0%

2.6%2.5%

4.2%4.4%

5.1%4.1%

Feb-24

OMB2

1.3%2.0%

2.5%2.3%

4.0%4.0%

nana

Mar-24

B.WhatMarketsSay

BankofAmerica/MerrillLynch

2.7%1.9%

3.2%2.5%

3.9%4.0%

4.6%3.6%

Mar-24

CapitalEconomics

2.4%2.0%

2.9%2.3%

3.8%3.9%

4.4%3.4%

Mar-24

JPMorgan

2.3%na

2.9%na

4.0%na

4.8%na

Mar-24

Moody'sE3

2.5%1.5%

2.8%2.3%

3.9%4.1%

5.2%4.3%

Mar-24

MortgageBankersAssociation

1.0%1.4%

2.6%2.2%

4.2%4.7%

4.6%3.6%

Mar-24

NationalBankofCanada

2.1%0.8%

3.2%2.4%

4.0%4.7%

4.8%3.5%

Mar-24

TDBankFinancialGroup

2.3%1.8%

3.2%2.2%

4.0%4.1%

4.8%2.8%

Mar-24

TheEconomistIntelligenceUnit4

1.8%1.6%

2.5%2.1%

3.7%4.4%

4.1%4.0%

Mar-24

WellsFargo/Wachovia3

2.4%1.8%

3.1%2.4%

3.9%3.8%

5.0%3.9%

Mar-24

MarketAverage

2.2%1.6%

2.9%2.3%

3.9%4.2%

4.7%3.6%

C.WhatInternationalOrganizationsSay

UnitedNationsDESA(Baseline)

1.4%1.7%

nana

nana

nan