国会预算办公室-美国预算与经济展望（英）

congressionalBudgetoffice

NonprtisanAnysisforthecongress

TheU.S.BudgetandEconomicOutlook

Presentationatthe2024InforumOutlookConference

PhillipL.Swagel

Director

May2,2024

Formoreinformationabouttheconference,see

/2024-inforum-outlook-conference/

.TheseslidesreprisegraphicspresentedinCongressionalBudgetOffice,TheBudgetand

EconomicOutlook:2024to2034(February2024),

/publication/59710

andTheLong-TermBudgetOutlook:2024to2054(March2024),

/publication/59711

.

TotalDeficit,NetInterestOutlays,andPrimaryDeficit

InCBO’sprojections,the

totalbudgetdeficit—the

amountbywhichoutlays

exceedrevenues—equals

6.1percentofGDPin2034.NetinterestpaymentsgrowinrelationtoGDP,reaching3.9percentofGDPin2034.Primarydeficitsincreasein2025,declineoverthenext

fewyears,andthenincreaseagain.

Primarydeficitsorsurplusesexcludenetoutlaysforinterest.Whenoutlaysexceedrevenues,theresultisadeficit.Inthisfigure,deficitsandsurpluseswerecalculatedbysubtractingrevenuesfromoutlays;thus,positivevaluesindicatedeficits,andnegativevaluesindicatesurpluses.ThedeficitnumbershavebeenadjustedtoexcludetheeffectsofshiftsthatoccurinthetimingofcertainpaymentswhenOctober1,thefirstdayofthefiscalyear,fallsonaweekend.GDP=grossdomesticproduct.

1

FederalDebtHeldbythePublic

Federaldebtheldbythe

publicincreaseseachyearinCBO’sprojections,

swellingtoanall-timerecordof116percentofGDPin

2034.Inthetwodecades

thatfollow,growingdeficitsareprojectedtocause

federaldebttosoarto

172percentofGDPby2054.

2

ChangesinCBO’sBaselineProjectionsofthe10-YearDeficitSinceMay2023

Thecumulativedeficitoverthe2024–2033periodis

$1.4trillionsmallerinCBO’scurrentbaselineprojectionsthanitwasintheagency’sMay2023projections,

mainlybecauseofnewlyenactedlegislationthatreduceddiscretionary

outlays.

3

LaborForce

Sincelastyear,CBOhas

increaseditsprojectionofthesizeofthelaborforcein2033by5.2millionpeople.Mostofthatincreaseresultsfromhigherprojectednet

immigration.

Thelaborforceconsistsofpeopleage16orolderintheciviliannoninstitutionalizedpopulationwhohavejobsorwhoareunemployed(availableforworkandeitherseekingworkor

expectingtoberecalledfromatemporarylayoff).

4

GrowthofRealGDP

Thegrowthofeconomic

outputisprojectedtoslowin2024asthegrowthof

consumerspendingslows

andasbusinessinvestmentinnonresidentialstructuresdeclines.Economicgrowthisprojectedtoincreasein

2025aftertheFederal

Reserverespondstoweakereconomicconditionsin2024byloweringinterestrates.

RealGDPisnominalGDPthathasbeenadjustedtoremovetheeffectsofchangesinprices.GrowthofrealGDPismeasuredfromthefourthquarterofonecalendaryeartothe

fourthquarterofthenextyear.

5

InterestRateon10-YearTreasuryNotes

Increasesinprojected

interestratesdroveupnetoutlaysforinterestinCBO’sbaselineprojections.

6

CompositionofOutlays,2024and2054

Percent

Totaloutlays

100

75

50

25

0

13

Netinterest

Noninterest

87

31

16

26

28

Discretionary

Othermandatory

SocialSecurity

Majorhealthcareprograms

23

77

Noninterestoutlays

23

10

28

39

2024

2054

InCBO’sprojectionsfor

2054,netinterestcosts

accountfornearlyaquarter

ofallfederaloutlays,and

spendingforthemajor

healthcareprograms

accountsfortwo-fifthsof

noninterestoutlays,bothof

whichrepresentsignificant

increasesfrom2024.

7

PopulationGrowthandtheDemographicFactorsThatContributetoIt

Percent

1.5

1.0

0.5

0

−0.5

Projected

Population

growth

Factors’contribution

topopulationgrowth

(percentagepoints)

Netimmigration

Birthsminusdeaths

2009201420192024202920342039204420492054

InCBO’sprojections,deathsexceedbirthsbeginningin

2040.Asaresult,without

immigrationthepopulation

wouldshrinkthereafter.

8

2.1

1.4

0.7

1.6

RealpotentialGDP

1.6

1.4

0.3

1.3

0.2

Potentiallaborforceproductivity

Potentiallaborforce

AverageAnnualGrowthofRealPotentialGDPandItsComponents

Percent

Projected

2.4

1.6

0.8

1994−20232024−20342035−2044