IMF-低碳技术贸易：气候和贸易政策的作用（英）

TheRoleofClimateandTradePoliciesIMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.2024NArAR2.每日分享：6+份行研精选、3个行业主题2.每日分享：6+份行研精选、3个行业主题4.严禁广告：仅限行业报告交流，禁止一切无关信息报告仅限社群个人学习，如需它用©2024InternationalMonetaryFundWP/24/75IMFWorkingPaperResearchDepartmentTradeinLowCarbonTechnologies:TheRoleofClimateandTradePoliciesPreparedbySamuelPienknagura*AuthorizedfordistributionbyFlorenceJaumotteMarch2024IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.ABSTRACT:CurbingcarbonemissionstomeetthetargetssetintheParisAgreementrequiresthedeploymentoflowcarbontechnologies(LCTs)ataglobalscale.ThispaperassessestheroleofclimateandtradepoliciesinfosteringLCTdiffusionthroughtrade.Leveragingacomprehensivedatabaseofclimatepoliciesandanewdatabaseidentifyingtradeinlowcarbontechnologiesandthetariffsappliedtothesegoods,thispapershowsthattheintroductionofnewclimatepolicieshasapositiveandsignificantimpactonLCTimports.Zoomingintospecificclimatepolicies,thepaperfindsthat,exceptfornon-bindingones,allclimatepoliciesstimulateLCTimports.ThepaperalsohighlightstheroleoftradepoliciesasanengineofLCTdiffusion—reductionsintariffsappliedonLCTgoodshaveasizeableimpactonLCTimports.Ontheflipside,resultssuggestthatmoreprotectionistmeasureswouldimpedethespreadoflow-carbontechnologies.RECOMMENDEDCITATION:“TradeinLowCarbonTechnologies:TheRoleofClimateandTradePolicies,”bySamuelPienknagura,IMFworkingpaper,2024.JELClassificationNumbers:F14,F18,Q55,Q58Keywords:Climatepolicies;trade;lowcarbontechnologies;technologicaldiffusion.Author’sE-MailAddress:spienknagura@IMFWORKINGPAPERSINTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND3Technologies:Schwerhoff,andNateVernonforcommentsandsug1*April2024AbstractCurbingcarbonemissionstomeetthethedeploymentoflowcsessestheroleofclimateandtradepoliciesinfosteringLCTdifusionthroughtrade.tradeinlowcarbontechnologiesandthetarifsappliedtothesegoods,thispapershowsthattheintroductionofnewclimatepolicieshasapositiveandsigniicantimpactonLCTimports.Zoomingintospeciicclimatepolicies,thepaperindsthat,exceptfornon-bindingones,allclimatepoliciesstimulateLCTimports.ThepaperalsohighlightstheroleoftradepoliciesasanengineofLCTdifusion—reductionsintarifsappliedonLCTgoodshaveasizeableimpactonLCTimports.Onthelipside,resultssuggestthatmoreprotectionistmeasureswouldimpedethespreadoflow-carbontechnologies.Keywords:Climatepolicies,trade,lowcarbontechnologies,technologicaldifusJELClassiication:F14,F18,Q55,Q58*IthankHasanDudu,ZeinaHasna,AndrewHodge,FlorenceJaumotte,AmitKara,GeofreyKeim,KoralaiKirabaeva,GregorSchwerhof,andNateVernonforcommentsandsuggestions.TheviewsexpressedinthepaperarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.yInternationalMonetaryFund;e-mail:spienknagura@21Introduction1ff1Budinaetal.(2023)showedthatstructuralreforms(governance,businessderegulation,tradeandandcapitalaccountliberalization)helpboosttheshareofrenewableenergy.3Onthelipside,thelargeestimatedimpactoftradepolicyonLCTimportshighlightsthesition,thereisagrowingdebateabouttheoptimalareatthecenterofthisdebate.2IindthatalltypesofclimatepoliciesexceptthosethatconsumersstimulateLCTimports,highlightingtheimportanceofpoliciesbeingbindinginnature.OECD’senvironmentalpolicystringency(EPS)index,andindqualitativelysimilarresults.ResultsarealsorobusttoalternativespeciicationsthatcontrolforoilpricesandforfutuimportsrelativetoGDP.ConsistentwithindingsusingrealLCTvalues,Iindthatanyears.ReductionsinLCTtarifsalsostimulateLCTimportsrelativetoGDP.Finally,Itheircountrypolicyportfolioswhentheyexpectanincreaseinimportsoftfacilitatethegreentransition.ResultsfromtheIVexerciseconirmthepositiveimpactofclimatepoliciesonLCTimports,withthetimingofimpactstrackingcloselythoseofThispapercontributestothegrowingliteratureontheimpactofclimatepoliciesinpromotingthedifusionofclimate-relatedtechnologies.ThedeinitionofLCTtrade2Forexample,carbonpricescanpromoteinnovationin,andtheadoptionof,newlowcarbontechnologies(Acemogluetal.,2012;IMF,2023b).However,carbontaxestypicallyfacehigherpublicresistancethanotherpolicies(Dabla-Norrisetal.,2023).Meanwhile,subsidies,whichhavegarneredattentionafterthepassageoftheUSInlationReductionActandtheGreenDealIndustrialPlanproposedbytheEuropeanCommission,helptacklemarketfailuresthattypicallyhamperthecreationofnewalternativestofossilfuelsandthedifusionofmaturecleantechnologies,butcancreatedistortionsandcauseretaliationacrosscountries,especiallywhentheydonotcomplywithinternationaltraderules.4fclimatepolicies,identiiedfromtheWTO’stradepolicyreview(TPR)andtrade-relatedmembernotiications,oninnovationindthatclimatepolicieshaveapositiveimpactontradeinenvironmentalgoods.Thisthispaperlooksatabroadersetofclimatepolicies,notjustthoseidentiiedbytheTRPandtrade-relatednotiicationsbyWTOmembers,whichallowstogetafullerunderstandingofhowtheintroductionofnewclimatepoliciesafectstradeinkeyproducts.Finally,IofLCTgoodsareimpactedbythetarifsappliedtothem.fclimatepoliciesandpotentialcomplementaritieswithotherpolicylevers.Theliteraturehaspointedtothepositivelong-termbeneitsofclimatepolicies,especiallythroughtheirimpactandothersindnegativepotentialchannelthroughwhichclimatepoliciescansupporteconomicactivity—namelybythepositiveimpactofclimatepoliciesontradecan2DataandEconometricApproachAdditionaldetailsaboutspeciicvariablesconstructedfortheanalA.52.1DataLCTTradedata:DataonLCTtradecomesfromtheIMF’sclimatechangedash-board.3Thedatabasereportsthedollarvalueforeachcountry-yearusingtheUS’CPIdelator.ThedashboarddeinesLCTproductsasthosethat”producelesspollutionthantheirtraditionalenergycounterparts,andwillplayavitalroleinthetran-AsshowninFigure1,afterslowingintheaftermathoftheglobalinancialcrisis,LCTregions,butisparticularlyevidentinhigh-incomecountries.Notably,low-incomecountriwhichstartedfarbehindhigh-andmiddle-incomecountriesintermsofLCTimportsinthetasets,reportsandcountry-speciicdocuments,fthatareindividualmembersofthe3/4Environmentalgoodsaredeinedasbothgoodsconnectedtoenvironmentalprotection,suchasgoodsrelatedtopollutionmanagementandresourcemanagement,andadaptedgoods,whicharegoobeenspeciicallymodiiedtobemore”environmentallyfriendly”or”cleaner.”5AllFiguresarepresentedinAnnexC.6/6fjoiningtheEU.Iexcludesub-fpolicies).OnelimitationoftheCPDisthatitdoesnotcontaininformationaboutthestringencyofacountry’sclimatepolicyportfolio.Giventhis,IalsoemploytheOECD’s7EverypolicyintheCPDcarriesinformationonpolicyobjectives,administrativelevel,andinstrumenttypes.Usingthisinformation,policiesareclassiieonthegovernment’sbudget.Inparticular,Icexpenses(e.g.,R&Dsubsidiesorfeed-in-tarifs),(iii)regulationswithnobudgetimpact,and(iv)nonregulatoryburestrictions).AdditionaldetailsoftheclassiicationarefoundinAnnexA.budget-neutralmeasuresarethLCTtarifs:Tarifsappliedonlowcarbontechnologies(LCT)goods,asdeinedinHowelletal.(2023),areconstructedusingtarifinformationfromUNCTAD’sTradeAnalysis7ForthelatestEPSupdateseeKrueseetal.(2022)ThelatestupdateoftheEPSindexconsistsofthreeequally-weightedsubindices,whichrespectivelygroupmarketbased(e.g.taxes,permitsandcertiicates),non-marketbased(e.g.performancestandards)andtechnologysupportpolicies,andquantiiestheintensityofenvironmentalregulationsinawaythatiscomparableacrosscountriesandovertime.7fffAdditionalcountry-levelmacroeconomicvariables:Dataoncountry-levelvari-(WDI).2.2EconometricApproachmi,t+h-mi,t-1=α+βhΔCPi,t+hΔτCT+ωhXi,t-j+εi,t+h(1)i,tis8Notethatforagivenyear,somecountriesreporttarifdatausingmultipleHSvintages.Insuchcases,Itookthemostrecentvintage.8oachdescribedbelow.Thefocuswillbeonβhandh,whichtracktheimftheclimatepolicyshockandthetarifshock.Tostudytheimpactofspeciicclimatepolicies,Iextendthespeciicationin(1)asmi,t+h-mi,t-1=α+βΔCPt+hΔτCT+ωhXi,t-j+εi,t+h(2)whereΔCPtistheyear-on-yearchangeofclfrevenue,expenditure,regulations,non-regulatoryg.Beyondlevels,IalsoestimatetheimpactofclimatepoliciesandtarifsonLCTimportssidevariableof(1)withtheLCTimportstoGDPratioatdiferenthorizons.Ialsotakethelogdiferencebetweenreimports.ThenIexploreheterogeneityintheimpactofthevariablesofinterestotheuseofalternativeclimatepolicymofpoliciesinothercountries.Finally,IfurtherexplorethelinkbetweenpoliciesandLCT3.1BaselineResultsimpactonLCTimports.Aonest9afterthepolicychange.TheincreaseofLCTimportsaftertheintroductionofnewclimatepoliciesmayrelectthefactthatactionontheenvironmentalpolicyfrontincreasesdemandforLCTgoods(BellelliandXu,2022).NextIturntotheimpactoftradepolicy.Figure5showstheevolutionofrealLCTimportsintheaftermathofanincreaseintarifsappliedtoLCTgoods.Notethatweareassumingtheefectsaresymmetric,suchthattheimpactofareductionintarifswouldbe(reduction)inLCTtarifswouldresultinareduction(increase)inLCTimportsofovershort-lived,however;LCTimportsreturntopre-shocklevelsinthemedium-term.Notethat3.2HeterogeneitybyIncomeGroupandPolicyInstrumentfLCTs,itisimportantthattheseefectsarepresentformiweakruleoflaw)couldhampoliciestoboostLCTdeployment,includingthroughtrade.Againstthisbackdrop,Iexploreincomecountriesandmiddle/low-incomecountries.AsshowninFigure6,adpoliciesandtarifreductionsstimulateLCTimportsinbothhigh-incomeandmiddle/low-(Figure7).pactofdiferentclimatepolicies.Zoomingintothisdimensionofheterogeneityisimportant3.3ExtensionsandRobustnessExercisesf9AnnexAprovidesdetailsontheclassiicationffffTheresultsinthispaperalsohighlighttherisksffromamorefragmentedglobaleconomy.First,theresultonthelinkbetweenLCTtarifsandadetrimentalimpactonthepaceofdifusionofLCTs.Morebroadly,climatepoliciesthatAcemolgu,D.,P.Aghion,L.Bursztyn,andD.Hemous,20Growth,”JournalofPoliticaAcconcia,A.,G.Corsetti,andS.Simonelli,2014.”MaiaandPublicSpending:denceontheFiscalMultiplierfromaQuais-Experiment,”AmericanEconomicReview,Vol.Barker,T.,P.lEkins,S.Junankar,H.Pollitt,andP.Summerton,2009.”TheCom-petitivenessEfectsofEuropeanEnvironmentalFiscalReforms,”EuropeanReviewofBellelli,F.andA.Xu,2022.”HowdoEnvironmentalPoliciesAfectGreenInnova-tionandTrade?EvidencefromtheWTOEnvironmentalDatabase(EDB),”WTOStafBernard,J.,andM.lKichian,2021.”TheImpactofaRevenue-NeutralCarbonTaxBettarelli,L.,D.Furceri,P.Pizzuto,N.Shakoor,2023.”EnvironmentalPoliciesandInnovationinRenewableEnergy,”IMFWorkingPaperWP/23?180.Capelle,D.,D.Kirti,N.Pierri,andG.VillegasBauer,2023.”Mitigatingclimatechangeattheirmlevel:Mindthelaggards,”IMFWorkingPaperWP23/242.Conte,M.,P.CotterlazandT.Mayer,2022.”TheCEPIIGravitydatabase”.CEPIIDabla-Norris,E.,T.Helbling,S.Khalid,H.Khan,G.Magistretti,A.Sollaci,andK.CountrySurveys.IMFStafDiscussionNoteSDN/2023/02,InternationalMonetaryFund,conomicEfectsofStructuralReformsinLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean,”EconomaJournal,TheLatinAmericanandCaribbeanEconomicAssociation-LACEA,vol.2Enevoldsen,M.K.,A.Ryelund,andM.SkouAndersei、mentalpolicystringencyinOECDcountries:Anindicator”,OECDEconomicsDepartmentWorkiMurray,B.,andN.Rivers,2015.”BritishColumbia’sRevenue-NeutralCarbonAReviewoftheLatestGrandExperimentinEnvironmentalPolicy,”EnergyPolicy86(C):WorldBank./10.1596/978-1-4648-1500-3.Rogelji,J.,D.Shindell,andK.Jiang.2018.”MitigationPathwaysCompatiblewithintheContextofSustainableDevelopment.”IPCCreport,IntergovernmentalPanelAClassiicationofClimatePoliciesbytheirImpactontheGovernment’sBudgetInordertoassesstheimpactofdiferentpoliciesonLCTimports,wemapthediferentandthosethatarebudgetneutral.Awhichtypicallyimposecompliancecostsforusers(e.g.self-imposedirmandsecttheirclassiication.CPDclassiicationTypeofPolicybyImpactonGovernmentBudgetDirectinvestment;Fundstosub-nationalgovernments;Infras-tructureinvestment;Demonstrationprojects;Researchpro-gram;Technologydevelopment;Technologydeploymentanddifusion;Feed-in-tarifsorpremiums;Loans;Grantsandsub-sidies;Retirementpremium;TaxreliefExpenseRemovaloffossilfuels;CO2taxes;Energyandothertaxes;Usercharges;GHGemissionreductioncreditingandofset-ting;GHGemissionallowanceRevenueGridaccessandpriorityforrenewables;Performancelabel;Institutionalcreation;StrategicPlanning;Auditing;Codesandstandards;BuildingStandards;Industrialairpollutionstandards;Productstandards;Sectoralstandards;Vehicleairpollutionstandards;Vehiclefuel-economyandemissionstan-dards;Monitoring;Obligationschemes;Othermandatoryre-quirementsNeutral,regulationsFormalandlegallybindingclimatestrategy;Politicalandnon-bindingclimatestrategy;Procurementrules;Tenderingschemes;Greenandwhitecertiicates;Adviseoraidinimple-mentation;Informationprovision;performancelabel;Com-parisonlabel;Endorsementlabel;Professionaltrainingandqualiication;Institutionalcreation;StrategicplanningNeutral,non-regulatoryNote:SeeHasnaetal.(2023)forfurtherdiscussion.BSampleDetails3-digitISOcodeIncomeLevelAUS;AUT;BHR;BEL;BRN;CAN;CHL;HRV;CYP;CZE;DNK;EST;FIN;FRA;DEU;GRC;HUN;ISL;IRL;ISR;ITA;JPN;KOR;LTU;LUX;MLT;MUS;NLD;NZL;NOR;OMN;PAN;POL;PRT;ROU;SAU;SYC;SGP;SVK;SVN;ESP;SWE;CHE;TTO;USA;URYHigh-incomeCountriesALB;DZA;ARG;ARM;AZE;BLR;BLZ;BEN;BOL;BWA;BRA;BGR;BFA;BDI;CMR;CHN;COL;CRI;CIV;DOM;ECU;EGY;SLV;SWZ;ETH;FJI;GMB;GHA;GRD;GTM;GUY;IND;IDN;JAM;JOR;KAZ;KEN;KGZ;LBN;MDG;MWI;MYS;MDV;MLI;MEX;MNG;MAR;MOZ;NAM;NIC;NER;NGA;MKD;PRY;PER;PHL;RUS;RWA;WSM;SEN;ZAF;LKA;VCT;SUR;TZA;THA;TGO;TUN;TUR;UGA;UKR;VEN;VNM;ZMB;ZWEMiddle-andLow-incomeCountiresNote:IncomelevelbasedonthelatestWorldBankdeinition.CFiguresSource:Hasnaetal.(2023)basedontheIMF'sClimatePolicyDashboard.Note:IncomegroupsarebasedontheWorldBank'sincomeclassification.Source:Hasnaetal.(2023)basedonSource:Hasnaetal.(2023)basedonUnitedNationsConferenceonTradeandDevelopment(UNCTAD)TradeAnalysisInformationSystem(TRAINS)database.Note:Barsshowthesimpleaveragebyincomeleveloftrade-weightedappliedtariffs.IncomegroupsarebasedontheWorldBank'sincomeclassification.byIncomeGroup2015-2021averagebyIncomeGroupSource:Hasnaetal.(2023)basedontheClimatePolicyDatabase.Note:IncomegroupsarebasedontheWorldBank'sincomeclassification.InPanelA,dashedlinesmarkthedatesofkeyinternationalclimatepolicymilestones.HIC=High-incomecountry;MIC=Middle-incomecountry;LIC=Low-incomecountryFigure3:EvolutionofAppliedTarifsAcrossIncomeGroupsFigure4:ImpactofanIncreaseinNote:Shadedareaindicates90percentconfidenceintervalwithstandarderrorsclusteredatthecountrylevel.Figure5:ImpactofanIncreaseinLCTTarifsonLCTImportsNote:Shadedareaindicate