浙江省高等教育与经济发展水平关系的实证分析

浙江省高等教育与经济发展水平关系的实证分析摘要教育是促进社会经济发展的重要动力，同时也是衡量人类文明进步的标志。在当今这个知识经济时代，教育在人类的发展和国家的繁荣上扮演着愈发重要的作用。因此高等教育与经济发展之间的动态关系成为一个十分重要且值得研究的问题。本文研究了2000-2017年浙江省经济发展和高等教育水平现状，并采用主成分分析的方法将多个相关的经济和教育指标进行降维，然后将相应的主成分进行加权并计算得分。再基于浙江省经济和教育综合得分以及教育经费数据构建VAR模型，利用协整分析、脉冲响应函数对经济发展、高等教育和教育经费的长期均衡关系以及动态关系进行分析。研究发现，浙江省经济发展、高等教育和教育经费之间存在长期均衡关系，并且高等教育对经济发展的促进作用存在滞后现象，而教育经费对高等教育的促进作用迅速，并由此可以对浙江省经济与教育发展提供相应的建议。【关键词】经济发展高等教育主成分分析VAR模型脉冲响应函数AbstractEducationisnotonlyanimportantdrivingforcetopromotesocialandeconomicdevelopment,butalsoasymboltomeasuretheprogressofhumancivilization.Intoday'sknowledge-basedeconomyera,educationplaysanincreasinglyimportantroleinhumandevelopmentandnationalprosperity.Therefore,thedynamicrelationshipbetweenhighereducationandeconomicdevelopmenthasbecomeaveryimportantandworthyofstudy.ThispaperstudiesthecurrentsituationofeconomicandeducationaldevelopmentlevelinZhejiangProvincefrom2000to2017,andusesthemethodofprincipalcomponentanalysistoreducethedimensionsofseveralrelatedeconomicandeducationalindicators,andthenweightsthecorrespondingprincipalcomponentsandcalculatesthescores.Then,basedonthecomprehensivescoresofZhejiangprovince'seconomyandeducationandthedataofeducationfunds,theVARmodelisconstructed,andthelong-termequilibriumrelationshipanddynamicrelationshipofeconomicdevelopment,highereducationandeducationfundsareanalyzedbyco-integrationanalysisandimpulseresponsefunction.Thestudyfindsthatthereisalong-termequilibriumrelationshipamongeconomicdevelopment,highereducationandeducationfundsinZhejiangProvince,andthepromotionofhighereducationtoeconomicdevelopmentlagsbehind.Thepromotionofhighereducationfundsisrapid,whichcanprovidecorrespondingsuggestionsforeconomicandeducationaldevelopmentinZhejiangProvince.Keywords:economicdevelopmenteducationallevelprincipalcomponentanalysisVARmodelimpulseresponsefunction目录TOC\o"1-2"\h\z\u一、引言 (附录2：经济数据年份GDP（亿元）第一产业第一产业比例第二产业第二产业比例第三产业第三产业比例人均GDP居民消费价格指数居民总消费水平农村居民总消费水平城镇居民总消费水平城镇居民可支配收入农村居民可支配收入固定资产投资20006141.03630.980.1033273.930.5332236.120.36413416100.050993278802092794254200020016898.34659.780.0963572.880.5182665.680.38614713109.1555136218404104654582260020028003.67685.20.0864090.480.5113227.990.40316978121.1609840128839117164940333020039705.02717.850.0745096.380.5253890.790.40120444138.07033450499071318054314180.38200411648.7814.10.0706250.380.5374584.220.39424352155.381744918117711454660965384.38200513417.68892.830.0677164.750.5345360.100.39927661176.495585439138431629466606138.39200615718.47925.10.0598511.510.5416281.860.40031825199.9110996216158371826573356964.28200718753.73986.020.05310154.250.5417613.460.40637358223.0127307169169862057482657704.90200821462.691095.960.05111567.420.5398799.310.41042166243.4142647881190022272792588550.71200922990.351163.080.05111908.490.5189918.780.43144641273.51586785712120424611100079906.46201027747.651360.560.04914187.360.51112199.740.44051758302.2182741027323655273591130311451.98201132363.381583.040.04916331.270.50514449.070.44659331334.6213461237126856309711307114077.25201234739.131667.880.04817000.090.48916071.160.46363508354.7228451372428259345501455217095.96201337756.581760.340.04718047.520.47817948.720.47568805380.9247711545830101370801749420194.07201440173.031777.180.04419175.060.47719220.790.47873002408.7268851728132186403931937323554.76201542886.491832.910.04319711.670.46021341.910.49877644433.2287121995333359437142112526664.72201647251.361965.180.04221194.610.44924091.570.51084916456.5307432202835152472372286629571.00201751768.261933.920.03722232.080.42927602.260.53392057489.5338512371738730512612495631125.99续表年份年末常住人口数年末就业人数旅客周转量货物周转量社会消费品零售总额进出口总额农村居民人均住房面积城镇居民人均住房面积农村每百户拥有汽车数城镇居民每百户拥有汽车数20004501.222726.09606.731199.742553.59278.3446.8519.80.450.520014520.232780.12656.231600.252901.25420.2147.8220.30.520.6720024540.362830.63705.231956.363252.01543.8949.5321.120.561.4420034560.252890.85750.262263.413526.12701.5450.7321.600.792.9820044577.222991.95795.322701.484055.50852.1351.2923.941.333.5220054602.113100.76848.493416.94645.851073.9154.9826.102.918.7120064629.43172.38929.154363.715357.971391.4755.5726.443.1111.0320074659.343405.011010.64701.36271.321768.5657.0634.723.9613.8620084687.853486.531071.334883.467533.302111.0958.5034.334.7019.6520094716.183591.981152.385659.788622.261877.3559.2935.106.223.7220105446.513636.021250.747117.0410387.022535.3358.5335.297.7926.4320115463.003674.111296.258634.8212532.803093.7860.8036.9013.4033.7320125477.003691.241317.589183.3014199.593124.0361.5037.1015.2036.5020135498.003708.731025.108949.5715970.843357.8960.8238.8218.8638.8720145508.003714.151056.999548.0917835.343550.4961.5340.8919.1843.4520155539.003733.651092.539868.9819784.743467.8461.2840.5325.4147.9020165590.003760.001074.999788.7621970.793365.0060.2740.8730.1753.2920175657.003796.001096.0410105.8124308.483779.0060.4341.5133.3555.54教育数据年份每万人中大学生数本专科招生数研究生招生数本专科在校生数研究生在校生数本专科毕业生数研究生毕业生数专任老师数研究经费师生比学校数200047.199351641302123759895324771600189813.3311.1735200161.97120195557729307813237372301882221685.0913.238200282.31152470611139314516297484312645259936.5815.1260200399.78173519686348463919269786853514299457.8816.21642004116.2919561780295727592206210312348583576613.3316682005130.4921536295776513072563713305155583840213.9017.6672006141.93237157109967198692712516253187314214315.9917.1682007157.02249749123267779823140918386373874