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AsiaPacificEquity02SeptemberAustralianWholesaleelectricitydatawatch-AugustSeptemberhasmarkedtheendofwinterandquestionsarenowemergingoverwhetherthesystemwillcopewithupcomingsummerpeakloads.AEMOhasindicatedalikelylossofload(particularlyinVictoria)betweenJanuaryandMarch2020.Meanwhile,baseloadforwardcontractscontinuetoriseandCAL20A$300capcontractsinbothVictoriaandSouthAustraliaarenowaboveA$17/MWh.AttheirfinancialresultsinAugust2019,AGLandOriginflaggedsignificantfallsinprofitabilityinthecurrentyear.However,weAsiaPacificEquity02SeptemberAustralianWholesaleelectricitydatawatch-AugustSeptemberhasmarkedtheendofwinterandquestionsarenowemergingoverwhetherthesystemwillcopewithupcomingsummerpeakloads.AEMOhasindicatedalikelylossofload(particularlyinVictoria)betweenJanuaryandMarch2020.Meanwhile,baseloadforwardcontractscontinuetoriseandCAL20A$300capcontractsinbothVictoriaandSouthAustraliaarenowaboveA$17/MWh.AttheirfinancialresultsinAugust2019,AGLandOriginflaggedsignificantfallsinprofitabilityinthecurrentyear.However,webelievemarketdynamicscontinuetosuggestthatitwillbemorechallengingforTier-2andTier-3retailerstocompetegiventheirhighercostbases.MarkBusuttilAC(61-2)9003Wholesalespotpricesremainelevated:AveragewholesalespotpricesacrossthefourNEMstatesincreasedtoA$83/MWhinAugust2019,12%aboveA$74/MWhinJune2019despiteslightlylowerdemand.AverageofA$94/MWhacrossthefourstates)remainelevatedandmorethan29%higherthanthepriorcorrespondingperiod.Whileforwardcontractsremaininbackwardation,thefrontendofthecurvecontinuestorise.Wenotethatthebackendofthecurveissomewhatilliquidandtheshapemaynotbeindicativeofthedirectionofprices.NonewcapacityaddedinAugust2019:TherewerenonewwindorsolarfarmsofferingcapacitytotheNEMinAugust2019.Newcapacityhasamountedtocloseto2GWin2019,2%higherthanthepriorcorrespondingperiod.RECpricescontinuetotrendhigher,nowatA$45/cert.comparedtoA$30/cert.inMarch2019.Nonetheless,thecurveremainsinbackwardationwithCAL20forwardRECpricesatA$26/cert.andCAL21atA$13/cert.Growingconcernsoversystemadequacy:Therewereanumberofnewsarticles(refertopage2)indicatinggrowingconcernoversystemadequacythroughthesummermonths.Asshowninthechartbelow,AEMO’sMTPASAtestisshowing100%changeofloss-of-loadduringP10weathereventsinthesummermonthsinVictoriaandSouthAustralia.AEMOhasexpandedtheRERTpanelinordertoprovidedemandsideresponse.Figure1:Chartofthemonth:Medium-TermPerformanceandSystemAdequacyTestforVIC(LHS)andSA(RHS)–unitsinLossofloadprobability00Sep-Dec-Mar-Sep-Dec-Mar-Source:J.P.Morgandoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthemakingtheirinvestmentdecision.每日免费每日免费获取报关注回复:研究加入“起点财经”微信群。AsiaPacificEquity02SeptemberAsiaPacificEquity02SeptemberMarkMajornewsitemsinthelastAEMOupsemergencypowerreservesforsummer:TheAFRreportedonthe9thofAugust2019thatAEMOwilloffertopayforemergencyback-upenergysuppliesacrossfivestatestoprotecttheelectricitygridfrompotentialblack-outsthissummer.AsfederalEnergyMinisterAngusTaylormovestosecurebase-loadpowerinNSWfollowingtheproposedclosureofAGLEnergy'sLiddellcoal-firedpowerplant,AEMOhasannounceditwillexpanditsReliabilityandEmergencyReserveTraderpanelforthe2019-20summer.AGLcallsforflexibilityinVic’semissionsreductionpathway:AccordingtotheAFRonthe12thofAugust2019,AGLhasadvisedtheVictoriangovernmentthatemissionsreductionstrajectoriestowardsthestate’snetzerotargetby2050needtobeflexibleandbroadlyneutralacrossindustrysectorstoavoidunnecessarycosts.Theelectricityandgassupplier,whichownsoneofthestate’sbiggestcoalgenerators,atLoyYangA,alsocautionedthatemissionsreductioneffortswithinVictoria’selectricitysectorneedtobecarefullyco-ordinatedwiththenationalenergymarket.Victoriasweatsonhighcostofsummerpower:TheAFRreportedonthe14thofAugust2019thatwholesaleelectricitypricesduringnextsummer’speakarepressinghigherinthetightVictorianmarket,keepingbothgeneratorsandconsumersonfullalertasthemarketoperatortakesstepstoputinplaceemergencyreservesupplies.AGLandOriginarebattlingtorepairtheirrespectivecoalandgaspowerunitsthatareduebackonlinebeforethesummerheathits.OriginEnergyhitwith$80,000fineaftercuttingpowerfrom54homes:AccordingtotheAgeonthe16thofAugust2019,Australia’senergywatchdoghasslappedOriginEnergywithafineandorderedittoreviewitsinternalprocessesafterthecompanywasfoundtohaveunlawfullydisconnectedpowerfrommorethan50homes.TheAustralianEnergyRegular(AER)announcedonFridaythatOriginhadbeenorderedtopay$80,000andhireanindependentauditortoexamineitstrainingandprocesses.Tannaissuesfreshwarningonriskstocoalpower:TheAFRreportedonthe21stofAugust2019thatEnergyAustraliachiefexecutiveCatherineTannahasinsistedthatVictoria’srenewableenergyandemissionreductionstargetscouldforceanearlyclosureofthecompany’sYallournbrown-coalgeneratorintheLatrobeValley,disputingtheassertionsofstateenergyministerLilyD'Ambrosio.MsD'Ambrosiosaidearlierthismonththatthelowcostofbrown-coalgenerationmeantthegovernmentexpectedallthestate’sgeneratorstoruntotheirratedlifespan,despiteVictoria’stargetsfor50%renewableenergyuseandupto60%emissionsreductionsby2030.NSW,Victoriawarnedofsummerblackoutriskifpowersupplydoesn'timprove:AccordingtotheABConthe22ndofAugust2019,morethanamillionVictorianhouseholdsareatriskofbeingwithoutpowerthissummerduringextremeheatifcoalandgasplantsarenotreturnedtoserviceintimeforpeakperiods,theenergymarketoperatorhaswarned.Theforecastalsopredictsupto770,000NSWhomeswillfaceablackoutriskonadayofextremeheatoncetheLiddellpowerplanthasclosedin2023-24ifcontingenciesarenotmade.MinisterseeksVicfixtoavoidblackouts:TheAssociatedPressreportedonthe22ndofAugust2019thatVictoriamustcometothetableandhelppreventwidespreadblackoutsonextremelyhotdaysthissummer,thefederalenergy202September02SeptemberMarkministerhasdeclared.MorethanonemillionVictorianhouseholdscouldbeleftwithoutpowerifanearlyheatwavehitsthestate,AEMOhaswarned.Energyusersslam'Band-AidontopofaBand-Aid':AccordingtotheAFRonthe22ndofAugust2019,theuseofemergencyenergyreserveseverysummerwillbepassedontocompaniesintheformofhigherenergycostsandpotentiallyforcemorecompaniestothewall,bigenergyusershavewarned.AsthemarketoperatordealswithinstabilityintheNationalElectricityMarketfromplannedmaintenanceofolderpowerplantsandtheunreliabilityofrenewableenergy,EnergyUsersAssociationofAustraliachiefexecutiveAndrewRichardssaidpredictionsoflarge-scaleblackoutsthissummerwasnotgoodenough.SummerofreckoningforAustralia'spowergrid:TheAFRreportedonthe23rdofAugust2019thatthelatestupdatefromAEMOontheprospectsoftheenergygridsurvivingalong,hotsummerdoesnotmakeprettyreadingforthoseworriedaboutlarge-scalepowerfailures.AfteradecadeofinactionandbickeringbetweentheCommonwealthandthestatesovernationalenergypolicy,thechickensarefinallycominghometoroostforthe2019-2020summer.Businessleaderssoundalarmoverloomingenergythreats:AccordingtotheAgeonthe23rdofAugust2019,thethreatofblackoutsinVictoriahassparkedalarmfromsomeofthenation'sbiggestbusinesseswithCocaColaAmatilbossAlisonWatkinscomparingthesituationtochallengesitusuallyfacedindevelopingcountries.AEMOwarnedonThursdaymorethanamillionVictorianhouseholdscouldfaceblackoutsthissummerifpowerplantrepairsatkeyfacilitiesranbehindschedulewithoutreplacementsuppliesbeingsecured.PelicanPointPowerStationtakentocourtover2017SouthAustralianheatwaveblackouts:TheABCreportedonthe27thofAugust2019thattheAustralianEnergyRegulatorhaslaunchedlegalactionagainsttheoperatorofagaspowerplantinAdelaide,allegingitfailedtonotifyauthoritiesithadsparegeneratorcapacitywhichcouldhavehelpedSouthAustraliaavoidwidespreadblackoutsin2017.TheFederalCourtproceedingscomejustweeksaftertheAERlaunchedsimilarlegalactionagainsttheoperatorsofSouthAustralianwindfarmsovertheeventsleadingtoaseparatestatewideblackoutin2016.EnergyregulatortargetsSApowerplant:AccordingtotheAssociatedPressonthe27thofAugust2019,theAERhaslaunchedFederalCourtactionagainstapowerstationoperatorinAdelaideoveritsconductaheadofthe2017blackoutwhichcutelectricitytoabout90,000properties.TheregulatorallegestheoperatorsofthePelicanPointgas-firedplantfailedtonotifyAEMOofitsgeneratingcapacityatatimewhenSAwasexperiencingheatwaveconditions,highcustomerdemandandreducedpoweravailability.Back-uppowerstationstopreventSAblackoutsprivatisedbutwillcontributemoretogrid:TheABCreportedonthe28thofAugust2019thattheSouthAustralianLiberalGovernmentwillproceedwithplanstoprivatisetheoperationoftwoemergencypowerstationsbuiltbyitsLaborpredecessor.TheGovernmenthassignedtwo25-yearleaseagreementswithNexifandInfigenEnergytooperateninegeneratingunitscurrentlylocatedatElizabethinAdelaide'snorth,andLonsdaleinthecity'ssouth.Plantoboostpowerofenergyconsumers:AccordingtotheAssociatedPressonthe29thofAugust2019,householdsandbusinessescouldsavethousandsofdollarsayearofftheirpowerbillsunderaplantogiveconsumersgreaterabilitytocompareandswitchenergyproviders.FromFebruary2020,forthefirsttimeconsumerswillhavegreateraccesstoinformationthatbanksholdonthemandwillbeabletouseittoshoparoundandgetabetterdeal.3AsiaPacificEquity02SeptemberMarkNewSouthBasespotWholesalespotpricestrendedhigherfromthepriormonthdespitemildweatherandgreaterinflowfromadjoiningstates.However,pricesinNSWare10%belowthesameperiodlastyear.Table2:AveragespotpriceinNSWWholesalespotFigure3:AveragespotpriceinNSW[A$/MWh–dailyaverageand3-monthtrailingaverage]0-AsiaPacificEquity02SeptemberMarkNewSouthBasespotWholesalespotpricestrendedhigherfromthepriormonthdespitemildweatherandgreaterinflowfromadjoiningstates.However,pricesinNSWare10%belowthesameperiodlastyear.Table2:AveragespotpriceinNSWWholesalespotFigure3:AveragespotpriceinNSW[A$/MWh–dailyaverageand3-monthtrailingaverage]0-Sep-19toFigure5:PeakspotpriceinNSW[A$/MWh–dailyaverageand3-monthtrailingaverage]PeakspotSimilartoaveragedailyprices,peakpricesincreasedinthemonthasshownbelow.Table4:AveragepeakspotpriceinNSWSep-19to0Figure6:NumberofdayspermonthaboveA$100/MWhaveragebasepricePriceTherewere7daysinAugust2019withaveragepricesinNSWaboveA$100/MWhcomparedtonodaysinthepriormonth.50 Source:Bloomberg,AEMO,J.P.402SeptemberMarkNewSouthForwardWholesalederivativeFigure7:Activestripforwardcontracts0Base-loadstripforwards(activecontracts)in02SeptemberMarkNewSouthForwardWholesalederivativeFigure7:Activestripforwardcontracts0Base-loadstripforwards(activecontracts)inNSWaveraged~A$87/MWhinAugust2019down0%fromA$87/MWhinJuly2019.Forwardsarenow1%higheratApr-Apr-Apr-Apr-Apr-Figure8:ForwardcurveForwardCAL20contractsarecurrentlyA$85/MWhupfromA$83/MWhinthepriormonth.CAL21contractsarecurrentlyA$75/MWhupfromA$73/MWhinthepriormonth.0Sep-Sep-Sep-Sep-CapPricesforA$300capcontractsareandA$4.85/MWh(CY2021).Figure9:A$300CapContracts86420Jan-Oct-Jul-Apr-Jan-5AsiaPacificEquity02SeptemberMarkNewSouthNEMElectricitydemandinAugust2019wasup0.2%fromthepriorcorrespondingperiodwithweatherconditionsusualforthetimeofyear.DemandforthehalfendingAugust2019was0.8%belowthepriorcorrespondingperiod.Table10:NEMElectricityDemandGridFigure11:Electricitydemand–rolling12month-MonthlyvsAsiaPacificEquity02SeptemberMarkNewSouthNEMElectricitydemandinAugust2019wasup0.2%fromthepriorcorrespondingperiodwithweatherconditionsusualforthetimeofyear.DemandforthehalfendingAugust2019was0.8%belowthepriorcorrespondingperiod.Table10:NEMElectricityDemandGridFigure11:Electricitydemand–rolling12month-MonthlyvspriorcorrespondingQuarterly-Jul-12Jul-13Jul-14Jul-Jul-16Jul-17Jul-18Jul-vspriorcorrespondingHalf--Source:J.P.Morganestimates,vspriorcorrespondingRollingAnnual--vspriorcorresponding-Source:J.P.Morganestimates,CoolingdegreeFigure12:CumulativecoolingdegreedaysforThemonthofAugust2019sawhotterthanusualconditionsinSydney.Theaveragemaximumof19.5°Cwas0.3°Cabove19.2°CinAugust2018and0.0°Cabovethe20-yearaverage.Theaverageminimumof9.4°Cwas0.1°Cbelow9.5°CinAugust2018and0.3°Cbelowthe20-yearTherewas1coolingdegreedaysinAugust2019versusthe5-yearaverageof1.0JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMaySource:BureauofMeteorology,J.P.Figure13:CumulativeheatingdegreedaysforHeatingdegreeTherewere115heatingdegreedaysinAugust2019versusthe5-yearaverageof114.0JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMaySource:BureauofMeteorology,J.P.602SeptemberMarkNewSouthFigure14:Electricitygeneration–monthlysince2016082%ofpowergenerationinNewSouthWalesinAugust2019wasfromblack-coalgenerators,versus85%inthepriormonth.Hydrocontributed5%withgas-firedplantsproviding5%ofgenerationrequirementsinthemonth.Theaverageload-factorforwindgeneratorswas47%inthemonthversus48%inJuly2019.TherewereoutagesatBayswater#4,Liddell#4andMtPiper#2duringthemonth.Generallytherewasmorecapacityavailablethanthepriorcorrespondingperiod.Jan-16Jul-16BlackCoalJan-17Jul-17BrownCoalJan-18Jul-18Jan-19Jul-19NaturalGasSource:J.P.Morganestimates,Figure15:Loadfactorsfor02SeptemberMarkNewSouthFigure14:Electricitygeneration–monthlysince2016082%ofpowergenerationinNewSouthWalesinAugust2019wasfromblack-coalgenerators,versus85%inthepriormonth.Hydrocontributed5%withgas-firedplantsproviding5%ofgenerationrequirementsinthemonth.Theaverageload-factorforwindgeneratorswas47%inthemonthversus48%inJuly2019.TherewereoutagesatBayswater#4,Liddell#4andMtPiper#2duringthemonth.Generallytherewasmorecapacityavailablethanthepriorcorrespondingperiod.Jan-16Jul-16BlackCoalJan-17Jul-17BrownCoalJan-18Jul-18Jan-19Jul-19NaturalGasSource:J.P.Morganestimates,Figure15:LoadfactorsforkeygeneratorsinFigure16:Electricitygeneration–lastmonth001-08-15-22-29-Jan-Jul-16Jan-17Jul-17Jan-18Jul-Jan-19Jul-BrownMtPiperSource:J.P.Morganestimates,Source:J.P.Morganestimates,Figure17:Estimatedbidstack(versusthepriorcorrespondingperiod–dashedline)–06,500 7,5008,000 9,0009,50010,00010,5000-0Source:J.PMorgan7AsiaPacificEquity02SeptemberMarkNewSouthNSWtoQLDNSWimportedanaverageof565MWofpowerfromQueenslandinthemonthofAugust2019.Thiscomparedto227MWimportedinJuly2019.BasedonaverageAsiaPacificEquity02SeptemberMarkNewSouthNSWtoQLDNSWimportedanaverageof565MWofpowerfromQueenslandinthemonthofAugust2019.Thiscomparedto227MWimportedinJuly2019.Basedonaveragedailyflows,theinterconnectoroperatedinarangeof68MW(exported)to1024MW(imported).Figure18:InterconnectorflowsNSWtoQLD[MWincluding30-dayaverage]0Jan-14Oct-14Jul-15Apr-16Jan-17Oct-17Jul-18Apr-Source:Figure19:InterconnectorflowsNSWtoVIC[MWincluding30-dayaverage]NSWtoVICNSWexportedanaverageof148MWofpowertoVictoriainthemonthofAugust2019.Thiscomparedto68MWexportedinJuly2019.Basedonaveragedailyflows,theinterconnectoroperatedinarangeof568MW(exported)to357MW(imported).0Jan-14Oct-14Jul-15Apr-16Jan-17Oct-17Jul-18Apr-Source:Figure20:NetinterconnectorflowsfromNSW[MWincluding30-dayaverage]NetinterconnectorNetinflowofelectricitytoNSWwas418MWinAugust2019comparedto158MWinflowinJuly0Jan-14Oct-14Jul-15Apr-16Jan-17Oct-17Jul-18Apr-Source:802SeptemberMarkBasespotWholesalespotpricestrendedhigherfromthepriormonthdespiteaveragedemandconditionsandgreaterinflowsfromadjoiningstates.PricesinVICare33%abovethesameperiodlastyear.Table21:AveragespotpriceinVICWholesalespotFigure22:BasespotpriceinVIC[A$/MWh–dailyaverageand3-monthtrailingaverage]002SeptemberMarkBasespotWholesalespotpricestrendedhigherfromthepriormonthdespiteaveragedemandconditionsandgreaterinflowsfromadjoiningstates.PricesinVICare33%abovethesameperiodlastyear.Table21:AveragespotpriceinVICWholesalespotFigure22:BasespotpriceinVIC[A$/MWh–dailyaverageand3-monthtrailingaverage]0Sep-19toFigure24:PeakspotpriceinVIC[A$/MWh–dailyaverageand3-monthtrailingaverage]PeakspotSimilartoaveragedailyprices,peakpricesincreasedinthemonthasshownbelow.Table23:AveragepeakspotpriceinVICSep-19to--0Source:Bloomberg,Figure25:NumberofdayspermonthaboveA$100/MWhaveragebasepricePriceTherewere15daysinAugust2019withaveragepricesinVICaboveA$100/MWhcomparedto4daysinthepriormonth.50 Source:Bloomberg,AEMO,J.P.9AsiaPacificEquity02SeptemberMarkForwardBase-loadstripforwards(activecontracts)inVICaveraged~A$108/MWhinAugust2019up0%fromA$108/MWhinJuly2019.Forwardsarenow3%higheratWholesalederivativeFigure26:ActiveforwardcontractsAsiaPacificEquity02SeptemberMarkForwardBase-loadstripforwards(activecontracts)inVICaveraged~A$108/MWhinAugust2019up0%fromA$108/MWhinJuly2019.Forwardsarenow3%higheratWholesalederivativeFigure26:Activeforwardcontracts0Apr-Apr-Apr-Apr-Apr-Figure27:ForwardcurveForwardCAL20contractsarecurrentlyA$104/MWhupfromA$100/MWhinthepriormonth.CAL21contractsarecurrentlyA$81/MWhupfromA$80/MWhinthepriormonth.0Sep-Sep-Sep-Sep-CapPricesforA$300capcontractsare(CY2020)andA$3.25/MWh(CY2021).Figure28:A$300CapContracts50Jan-Oct-Jul-Apr-Jan-02SeptemberMarkNEMElectricitydemandinAugust2019wasup0.5%fromthepriorcorrespondingperiodwithnormalweatherconditionsfortheperiod.DemandforthehalfendingAugust2019was0.9%belowthepriorcorrespondingperiod.Table29:NEMElectricityDemandGridFigure30:Electricitydemand–rolling12month02SeptemberMarkNEMElectricitydemandinAugust2019wasup0.5%fromthepriorcorrespondingperiodwithnormalweatherconditionsfortheperiod.DemandforthehalfendingAugust2019was0.9%belowthepriorcorrespondingperiod.Table29:NEMElectricityDemandGridFigure30:Electricitydemand–rolling12month-MonthlyvspriorcorrespondingQuarterly-Jul-12Jul-13Jul-14Jul-15Jul-16Jul-17Jul-18Jul-vspriorcorrespondingHalf--Source:J.P.Morganestimates,vspriorcorrespondingRollingAnnual--vspriorcorresponding--Source:J.P.Morganestimates,CoolingdegreeFigure31:CumulativecoolingdegreedaysforThemonthofAugust2019sawcoolerthanusualconditionsinMelbourne.Theaveragemaximumof14.3°Cwas0.8°Cbelow15.1°CinAugust2018and0.5°Cbelowthe20-yearaverage.Theaverageminimumof6.2°Cwas0.5°Cabove5.7°CinAugust2018and0.0°Cabovethe20-yearTherewerenocoolingdegreedaysinAugust2019versusthe5-yearaverageofnone.0JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMaySource:BureauofMeteorology,J.P.Figure32:CumulativeheatingdegreedaysforHeatingdegreeTherewere236heatingdegreedaysinAugust2019versusthe5-yearaverageof235.0JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMaySource:BureauofMeteorology,J.P.AsiaPacificEquity02SeptemberMarkFigure33:Electricitygeneration–monthlysince2016071%ofpowergenerationinVictoriainAugust2019wasfrombrown-coalgenerators,versus74%inthepriormonth.Hydrocontributed6%withgas-firedplantsproviding10%ofgenerationrequirementsinthemonth.Theaverageload-factorforwindgeneratorswas44%inthemonthversus45%inJuly2019.TherewereoutagesatLoyYangA#2andYallourn#3duringthemonth.Therewasgenerallymoreenergyavailableduringthemonthalbeitathigherprices.Jan-16Jul-16BlackCoalJan-17Jul-17BrownCoalJan-18Jul-18Jan-19Jul-19NaturalGasSource:J.P.Morganestimates,Figure34:LoadfactorsforkeygeneratorsinFigure35:Electricitygeneration–lastmonthAsiaPacificEquity02SeptemberMarkFigure33:Electricitygeneration–monthlysince2016071%ofpowergenerationinVictoriainAugust2019wasfrombrown-coalgenerators,versus74%inthepriormonth.Hydrocontributed6%withgas-firedplantsproviding10%ofgenerationrequirementsinthemonth.Theaverageload-factorforwindgeneratorswas44%inthemonthversus45%inJuly2019.TherewereoutagesatLoyYangA#2andYallourn#3duringthemonth.Therewasgenerallymoreenergyavailableduringthemonthalbeitathigherprices.Jan-16Jul-16BlackCoalJan-17Jul-17BrownCoalJan-18Jul-18Jan-19Jul-19NaturalGasSource:J.P.Morganestimates,Figure34:LoadfactorsforkeygeneratorsinFigure35:Electricitygeneration–lastmonth001-08-15-22-29-Jan-Jul-16Jan-17Jul-Jan-Jul-18Jan-Jul-YallournLoyYangBrownSource:J.P.Morganestimates,Source:J.P.Morganestimates,Figure36:Estimatedbidstack(versusthepriorcorrespondingperiod–dashedline)–00-0Source:J.PMorgan02SeptemberMarkVICtoTASFigure37:InterconnectorflowsVICtoTAS[MWincluding30-dayaverage]VICimportedanaverage02SeptemberMarkVICtoTASFigure37:InterconnectorflowsVICtoTAS[MWincluding30-dayaverage]VICimportedanaverageof182MWofpowerfromTasmaniainthemonthofAugust2019.Thiscomparedto303MWimportedinJuly2019.Basedonaveragedailyflows,theinterconnectoroperatedinarangeof344MW(exported)to478MW(imported).0Jan-14Oct-14Jul-15Apr-16Jan-17Oct-17Jul-18Apr-Source:Figure38:InterconnectorflowsVICtoSA[MWincluding30-dayVICtoSAVICimportedanaverageof155MWofpower0SouthAustraliainthemonthofAugust2019.comparedto55MWimportedinJuly2019.Basedonaveragedailyflows,theinterconnectoroperatedinarangeof103MW(exported)to482MW(imported).Jan-14Oct-14Jul-15Apr-16Jan-17Oct-17Jul-18Apr-Figure39:NetinterconnectorflowsfromVIC[MWincluding30-dayaverage]NetinterconnectorNetinflowofelectricitytoVICwas485MWinAugust2019comparedto427MWinflowinJuly0Jan-14Oct-14Jul-15Apr-16Jan-17Oct-17Jul-18Apr-Source:AsiaPacificEquity02SeptemberMarkBasespotWholesalespotpricestrendedlowerfromthepriormonthduetolowerseasonaldemand.PricesinQLDare25%belowthesameperiodlastyear.Table40:AveragespotpriceinQLDWholesalespotFigure41:BasespotpriceinQLD[A$/MWh–dailyaverageand3-monthtrailingaverage]0-Sep-19to--FigureAsiaPacificEquity02SeptemberMarkBasespotWholesalespotpricestrendedlowerfromthepriormonthduetolowerseasonaldemand.PricesinQLDare25%belowthesameperiodlastyear.Table40:AveragespotpriceinQLDWholesalespotFigure41:BasespotpriceinQLD[A$/MWh–dailyaverageand3-monthtrailingaverage]0-Sep-19to--Figure43:PeakspotpriceinQLD[A$/MWh–dailyaverageand3-monthtrailingaverage]PeakspotSimilartoaveragedailyprices,peakpricesdeclinedinthemonthasshownbelow.Table42:AveragepeakspotpriceinQLD-Sep-19to0Figure44:NumberofdayspermonthaboveA$100/MWhaveragebasepricePriceTherewerenodaysinAugust2019withaveragepricesinQLDaboveA$100/MWhcomparedtonodaysinthepriormonth.86420 Source:Bloomberg,AEMO,J.P.02SeptemberMarkForwardBase-loadstripforwards(activecontracts)inQLDaveraged~A$77/MWhinAugust2019down2%fromA$78/MWhinJuly2019.Forwardsarenow3%loweratWholesalederivativeFigure45:Activeforwardcontracts02SeptemberMarkForwardBase-loadstripforwards(activecontracts)inQLDaveraged~A$77/MWhinAugust2019down2%fromA$78/MWhinJuly2019.Forwardsarenow3%loweratWholesalederivativeFigure45:Activeforwardcontracts0Apr-Apr-Apr-Apr-Apr-Figure46:ForwardcurveForwardCAL20contractsarecurrentlyA$73/MWhdownfromA$73/MWhinthepriormonth.CAL21contractsarecurrentlyA$64/MWhdownfromA$65/MWhinthepriormonth.0Sep-Sep-Sep-Sep-CapPricesforA$300capcontractsareandA$9.25/MWh(CY2021).Figure47:A$300CapContracts86420Jan-Oct-Jul-Apr-Jan-AsiaPacificEquity02SeptemberMarkNEMElectricitydemandinAugust2019wasdown3.4%fromthepriorcorrespondingperiodduetomilderweatherconditions.DemandforthehalfendingAugust2019was0.8%belowthepriorcorrespondingperiod.Table48:NEMElectricityDemandGridFigure49:Electricitydemand–rolling12month-AsiaPacificEquity02SeptemberMarkNEMElectricitydemandinAugust2019wasdown3.4%fromthepriorcorrespondingperiodduetomilderweatherconditions.DemandforthehalfendingAugust2019was0.8%belowthepriorcorrespondingperiod.Table48:NEMElectricityDemandGridFigure49:Electricitydemand–rolling12month-MonthlyvspriorcorrespondingQuarterly--Jul-12Jul-13Jul-14Jul-15Jul-16Jul-17Jul-18Jul-vspriorcorrespondingHalf--Source:J.P.Morganestimates,vspriorcorrespondingRollingAnnual--vspriorcorresponding-Source:J.P.Morganestimates,CoolingdegreeFigure50:CumulativecoolingdegreedaysforThemonthofAugust2019sawhotterthanusualconditionsinBrisbane.Theaveragemaximumof24.1°Cwas0.3°Cbelow24.3°CinAugust2018and1.0°Cabovethe20-yearaverage.Theaverageminimumof11.7°Cwas2.1°Cabove9.6°CinAugust2018and2.1°Cabovethe20-yearTherewere7coolingdegreedaysinAugust2019versusthe5-yearaverageof10.0JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMaySource:BureauofMeteorology,J.P.Figure51:CumulativeheatingdegreedaysforHeatingdegreeTherewere39heatingdegreedaysinAugust2019versusthe5-yearaverageof47.0JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMaySource:BureauofMeteorology,J.P.02SeptemberMarkFigure52:Electricitygeneration–monthlysince201684%ofpowergenerationinQueenslandinAugust2019wasfromblack-coalgenerators,versus85%inthepriormonth.Hydrocontributed2%withgas-firedplantsproviding8%ofgenerationrequirementsintheTherewereoutagesatStanwell#1,KoganCreekandTarong#2duringthemonth.Therewasgenerallymoreenergyavailableduringthemonthcomparedtothepriorcorresponding0Jan-16Jul-16BlackCoalJan-17Jul-17BrownCoalJan-18Jul-18Jan-19Jul-19NaturalGasSource:J.P.Morganestimates,Figure53:LoadfactorsforkeygeneratorsinFigure54:Electricitygeneration02SeptemberMarkFigure52:Electricitygeneration–monthlysince201684%ofpowergenerationinQueenslandinAugust2019wasfromblack-coalgenerators,versus85%inthepriormonth.Hydrocontributed2%withgas-firedplantsproviding8%ofgenerationrequirementsintheTherewereoutagesatStanwell#1,KoganCreekandTarong#2duringthemonth.Therewasgenerallymoreenergyavailableduringthemonthcomparedtothepriorcorresponding0Jan-16Jul-16BlackCoalJan-17Jul-17BrownCoalJan-18Jul-18Jan-19Jul-19NaturalGasSource:J.P.Morganestimates,Figure53:LoadfactorsforkeygeneratorsinFigure54:Electricitygeneration–lastmonth001-08-15-29-Jan-Jul-16Jan-17Jul-Jan-Jul-Jan-Jul-CallideBCallideBBrownSource:J.P.Morganestimates,Source:J.P.Morganestimates,Figure55:Estimatedbidstack(versusthepriorcorrespondingperiod–dashedline)–0 0-0Sou
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