医药行业重点公司2023年业绩前瞻：业绩持续分化

表1：2023Q4医药行业业绩预测-按细分行业市值排序行业证券代码证券简称2023Q42023FY总市值（）收入（亿元）归母净利润（亿元）收入（亿元）归母净利润（亿元）创新药及制剂000963.SZ华东医药103.4～5.6～6.8407.3～414.927.5～28.7627yoy4.9%～12.5%8.1%～31.3%8%-10%10-15%创新药及制剂688331.SH荣昌生物3.5-4.3-11.2-11.9-294yoy75%-115%-45%-54.5%-创新药及制剂002262.SZ恩华药业13.5-141.8-250-50.510.5-11277yoy14%-18%12%-25%16%-18%16%-22%创新药及制剂300558.SZ贝达药业4.3-4.8-24.5-25-194yoy-39%~-32%-3%~6%-创新药及制剂688266.SH泽璟制药1-1.2-4-4.2-132yoy0-20%-33.3%-40%-创新药及制剂002020.SZ京新药业10.5~111.4~1.840~416~6.5100yoy7%~12%-25%~-5%6%~8%-9%~-2%创新药及制剂603590.SH康辰药业3.2-3.50.2-0.410.5-111.6-1.856yoy14%-25%-20%-26%60%-80%创新药及制剂688373.SH盟科药业0.22~0.27-0.9~0.95-40yoy65%~100%-85%~100%-生物药000661.SZ长春高新31.2~38.29~10138~14545~48502yoy5~30%30~45%10~15%10~15%生物药603087.SH甘李药业6.2~6.90.7~125.3~263.4~3.6267yoy30%~45%扭亏为盈48%~52%扭亏为盈生物药600867.SH通化东宝8~8.53~429~29.510.5~11.5204yoy17%~25%66%~122%4%~6%-33.5%~-27.5%生物药300357.SZ我武生物1.8~2.20.6~18.5~8.93.3~3.7133yoy-10%~10%185%~340%-5%~05%~5%医疗器械300760.SZ迈瑞医疗77.8~81.317.3~18.1351~354.3115.7~116.53,338yoy10~15%15%~20%16~17%+20~21%医疗器械688271.SH联影医疗40.6~42.67~8.4114.9~116.917.6~191,094yoy20~26%-7~11%24~27%6%~15%医疗器械300832.SZ新产业8.9~9.24.6~4.837.9~38.216.5~16.7590yoy18%~22%14~18%24%~25%24%~25%医疗器械603658.SH安图生物9.3~11.62.7~3.341.7~4411.7~12.3304yoy-20%~0%-2~23%-6~-1%0~5%医疗器械600529.SH山东药玻13~152.1~2.349.7~51.78.2~8.4177yoy8%~25%75%~92%19%~23%32%~35%医疗器械688050.SH爱博医疗2.6~2.80.8~18.4~8.63.1~3.3170yoy88~102%142~203%45~48%35~45%医疗器械688029.SH南微医学5.8~6.11.26~1.3123.3~23.55.1~5.2163yoy25~30%21~26%18~19%55~56%医疗器械688198.SH佰仁医疗0.88~0.930.41~0.443.4~3.51.1~1.2153行业证券代码证券简称2023Q42023FY总市值（）收入（亿元）归母净利润（亿元）收入（亿元）归母净利润（亿元）yoy17~25%17~25%17~19%17~20%医疗器械688016.SH心脉医疗3~3.10.9~0.9511.7~124.7~4.9146yoy30~35%60~70%30~35%33~37%医疗器械688139.SH海尔生物6.2~6.51.11~1.1824.4~24.84.7~4.8122yoy-22~-17%-21~-15%-15~-13%-22~-21%医疗器械688389.SH普门科技3.9~4.21.24~1.3412~12.33.3~3.486yoy25~35%26~36%22~25%31~35%医疗器械603301.SH振德医疗9.7~12.61.1~1.441.8~44.74.1~4.462yoy-50~-35%-53~-39%-32~-27%-40~-36%医疗器械688677.SH海泰新光1.2~1.30.37~0.424.9~5.11.5~1.657yoy-15~-5%-13~-2%3~6%-15~-12%医疗器械688108.SH赛诺医疗0.81~1.1-0.18~-0.053.3~3.5-0.6~-0.4745yoy200~300%66~91%69~83%63~71%医疗器械688580.SH伟思医疗1.3~1.40.35~0.384.6~4.71.37~1.441yoy20~30%11~21%42~46%46%~49%医疗器械688358.SH祥生医疗1.1~1.50.33~0.455.1~5.51.75~1.8737yoy300~450%267~330%34~44%65~77%医疗服务300015.SZ爱尔眼科40~463~4201~20634~351,348yoy30~50%79~140%25~28%30~35%医疗服务301267.SZ华厦眼科8.4~8.81.4~1.639~407~7.2264yoy20~25%25~35%20~25%30~40%医疗服务600763.SH通策医疗6.1~6.40.34~0.3628~28.45.5~5.6226yoy5~10%5~10%3~5%0~3%医疗服务000516.SZ国际医学10~11-0.5~043~44-2.5~-2172yoy26~39%减亏59~62%减亏医疗服务301239.SZ普瑞眼科5.4~5.5-0.37~-0.3927~27.22.76~2.78121yoy84~88%45~50%55~57%1280~1290%中药000999.SZ华润三九～63.9～5～～29499yoy～7.1%～0.8%～38.3%～18.4%中药002603.SZ健民集团10~111~1.244.9~46.44.9~5.1378yoy18%~29%25%~50%23%~27%20%~24%中药600566.SH济川药业28.2~30.46.1~6.793.6~95.825.5~26.1301yoy-9%~-2%5%~15%4%~7%18%~20%中药600129.SH太极集团39~401.2~1.4160~1658.5~9224yoy13%~14%20%~40%15%~17%143%~157%中药600557.SH康缘药业12.9~14.11.5~1.847.8~495~5.2115yoy5%~15%0%~15%10%~13%16%~21%中药300181.SZ佐力药业4.8~5.10.9~119.5~19.83.8~3.975yoy5%~11%35%~45%8%~10%39%~41%中药603896.SH寿仙谷3~3.41.5~1.658.4~8.82.8~2.962yoy-5%~5%0%~10%2%~6%0%~5%行业证券代码证券简称2023Q42023FY总市值（）收入（亿元）归母净利润（亿元）收入（亿元）归母净利润（亿元）疫苗300122.SZ智飞生物115~12020~21508~51385~861,179yoy10~15%5~10%33~34%13~15%疫苗300601.SZ康泰生物9.5~10.11.7~1.833~34.78~9280yoy60~70%扭亏5~10%扭亏疫苗300841.SZ康华生物5.3~5.41.3~1.415.2~15.95.4~5.786yoy35~40%15~20%5~10%-5~-10%血制品002252.SZ上海莱士18.7~20.7-78~80-476yoy15%~30%-19%~22%-血制品002007.SZ华兰生物13.4~15.42~2.652.5~55.512.7~13.3359yoy45%~70%15%~50%15%~20%18%~23%血制品000403.SZ派林生物9.6~112.6~323.3~24.85.9~6.3190yoy5%~20%11%~30%-3%~3%0~7%血制品002880.SZ卫光生物3.6~4.70.7~0.911~122.2~2.472yoy40%~80%55%~100%65%~80%90%~100%零售药店603939.SH益丰药房62.1~65.43.8~4.2221~224.313.7~14.2407yoy-5%~0%-15%~-5%11%~13%9%~12%零售药店603233.SH大参林57.9~64.31~1.1235.1~241.512.7~12.8285yoy-10%~0%-15%~-5%11%~14%23%~24%零售药店603883.SH老百姓-2.1~2.3-9.3~9.4180yoy-20%~30%-18%~20%零售药店605266.SH健之佳25~301.2~1.490~954~4.277yoy-11%~7%-27%~-18%20%~26%11%~15%医药分销601607.SH上海医药648.3~677-2623.4~2652-605yoy13%~18%-13%~14%-医药分销000950.SZ重药控股173~190.3-756.8~774.1-83yoy0%~10%-12%~14%-医药分销603368.SH柳药集团50.7~53.11.7~1.8206.9~209.38.4~8.568yoy5%~10%33%~39%9%~10%20%~21%CXO603259.SH药明康德106～22.73～23.73（经调整non-IFRS）401.4～405.4104.4～105.4（经调整non-IFRS）2,178yoy-3.3%～0.4%-13.5%～-9.7%2%～3%12.1%CXO300759.SZ康龙化成28.6～31.53.2～3.714.6～15.1479yoy0%～-23%～-10.4%14.1%6%～CXO002821.SZ凯莱英18.2～20.23.4～4.182～8425.4～26.1389yoy-21.6%～-13.3%-41.5%～-29.4%-19.1%～-17.1%-23.1%～-21%CXO688621.SH阳光诺和1.9～2.60.3～0.58.8～9.52.0～2.280yoy5%～43.6%85.2%30%～30%～CXO301096.SZ百诚医药2.2～2.30.66～0.699.36～9.452.67～2.778yoy20%～35%～54.2%～55.7%37.6%～39.2%原料药688076.SH九洲药业——2.23～2.4——12.196行业证券代码证券简称2023Q42023FY总市值（）收入（亿元）归母净利润（亿元）收入（亿元）归母净利润（亿元）yoy——25%～——29.2%～31.4%原料药300452.SZ山河药辅1.7～2.10.33～0.48.1～8.51.57～1.6432yoy-5%～15.1%-8%～10.9%15%～20%～科研试剂688105.SH诺唯赞3.8~4.8-0.4~012.5~13.5-1~-0.6116yoy-70%~-60%-90%~-115%-65%~-62%-115%~-110%科研试剂688690.SH纳微科技2~2.50.13~0.176.5~70.52~0.5696yoy-15%~5%-80%~-70%-8%~0-79%~-81%科研试剂301080.SZ百普赛斯1.3~1.60.2~0.45.4~5.71.5~1.762yoy10~30%——15~20%——科研试剂688293.SH奥浦迈0.58~0.880.06~0.092.3~2.60.49~0.5255yoy-20%~25%-75%~-60%-20%~-10%-55%~-50%科研试剂688179.SH阿拉丁1.1~1.20.2~0.33.9~4.10.8~0.934yoy0~10%0~10%5~10%——数据来源：，收盘价为2024年1月16日，；注：本表中预计收入利润数字皆为预期范围；除标注外都是归母净利润口径，区间增速按中值计算表2：2023Q4医药行业业绩预测-按净利润增速排序（如没有净利润预测值则按照收入增速）行业证券代码证券简称2023Q42023FY总市值（）收入（亿元）归母净利润（亿元）收入（亿元）归母净利润（亿元）医疗器械688358.SH祥生医疗1.1~1.50.33~0.455.1~5.51.75~1.8737yoy300~450%267~330%34~44%65~77%生物药300357.SZ我武生物1.8~2.20.6~18.5~8.93.3~3.7133yoy-10%~10%185%~340%-5%~05%~5%医疗器械688050.SH爱博医疗2.6~2.80.8~18.4~8.63.1~3.3170yoy88~102%142~203%45~48%35~45%医疗服务300015.SZ爱尔眼科40~463~4201~20634~351,348yoy30~50%79~140%25~28%30~35%生物药600867.SH通化东宝8~8.53~429~29.510.5~11.5204yoy17%~25%66%~122%4%~6%-33.5%~-27.5%创新药及制剂688331.SH荣昌生物3.5-4.3-11.2-11.9-294yoy75%-115%-45%-54.5%-医疗器械600529.SH山东药玻13~152.1~2.349.7~51.78.2~8.4177yoy8%~25%75%~92%19%~23%32%~35%医疗器械688108.SH赛诺医疗0.81~1.1-0.18~-0.053.3~3.5-0.6~-0.4745yoy200~300%66~91%69~83%63~71%创新药及制剂688373.SH盟科药业0.22~0.27-0.9~0.95-40yoy65%~100%-85%~100%-疫苗300601.SZ康泰生物9.5~10.11.7~1.833~34.78~9280yoy60~70%扭亏5~10%扭亏血制品002880.SZ卫光生物3.6~4.70.7~0.911~122.2~2.472yoy40%~80%55%~100%65%~80%90%~100%行业证券代码证券简称2023Q42023FY总市值（）收入（亿元）归母净利润（亿元）收入（亿元）归母净利润（亿元）医疗器械688016.SH心脉医疗3~3.10.9~0.9511.7~124.7~4.9146yoy30~35%60~70%30~35%33~37%医疗服务301239.SZ普瑞眼科5.4~5.5-0.37~-0.3927~27.22.76~2.78121yoy84~88%45~50%55~57%1280~1290%中药002603.SZ健民集团10~111~1.244.9~46.44.9~5.1378yoy18%~29%25%~50%23%~27%20%~24%中药300181.SZ佐力药业4.8~5.10.9~119.5~19.83.8~3.975yoy5%~11%35%~45%8%~10%39%~41%生物药000661.SZ长春高新31.2~38.29~10138~14545~48502yoy5~30%30~45%10~15%10~15%生物药603087.SH甘李药业6.2~6.90.7~125.3~263.4~3.6267yoy30%~45%扭亏为盈48%~52%扭亏为盈CXO301096.SZ百诚医药2.2～2.30.66～0.699.36～9.452.67～2.778yoy20%～35%～54.2%～55.7%37.6%～39.2%医药分销603368.SH柳药集团50.7~53.11.7~1.8206.9~209.38.4~8.568yoy5%~10%33%~39%9%~10%20%~21%医疗服务000516.SZ国际医学10~11-0.5~043~44-2.5~-2172yoy26~39%减亏59~62%减亏医疗服务301267.SZ华厦眼科8.4~8.81.4~1.639~407~7.2264yoy20~25%25~35%20~25%30~40%CXO688621.SH阳光诺和1.9～2.60.3～0.58.8～9.52.0～2.280yoy5%～43.6%85.2%30%～30%～中药600129.SH太极集团39~401.2~1.4160~1658.5~9224yoy13%~14%20%~40%15%~17%143%~157%医疗器械688389.SH普门科技3.9~4.21.24~1.3412~12.33.3~3.486yoy25~35%26~36%22~25%31~35%创新药及制剂000963.SZ华东医药103.4～5.6～6.8407.3～414.927.5～28.7627yoy4.9%～12.5%8.1%～31.3%8%-10%10-15%原料药688076.SH九洲药业——2.23～2.4——12.196yoy——25%～——29.2%～31.4%零售药店603883.SH老百姓-2.1~2.3-9.3~9.4180yoy-20%~30%-18%~20%医疗器械688029.SH南微医学5.8~6.11.26~1.3123.3~23.55.1~5.2163yoy25~30%21~26%18~19%55~56%医疗器械688198.SH佰仁医疗0.88~0.930.41~0.443.4~3.51.1~1.2153yoy17~25%17~25%17~19%17~20%血制品002007.SZ华兰生物13.4~15.42~2.652.5~55.512.7~13.3359yoy45%~70%15%~50%15%~20%18%~23%血制品002252.SZ上海莱士18.7~20.7-78~80-476yoy15%~30%-19%~22%-血制品000403.SZ派林生物9.6~112.6~323.3~24.85.9~6.3190行业证券代码证券简称2023Q42023FY总市值（）收入（亿元）归母净利润（亿元）收入（亿元）归母净利润（亿元）yoy5%~20%11%~30%-3%~3%0~7%创新药及制剂002262.SZ恩华药业13.5-141.8-250-50.510.5-11277yoy14%-18%12%-25%16%-18%16%-22%科研试剂301080.SZ百普赛斯1.3~1.60.2~0.45.4~5.71.5~1.762yoy10~30%——15~20%——医疗器械300760.SZ迈瑞医疗77.8~81.317.3~18.1351~354.3115.7~116.53,338yoy10~15%15%~20%16~17%+20~21%疫苗300841.SZ康华生物5.3~5.41.3~1.415.2~15.95.4~5.786yoy35~40%15~20%5~10%-5~-10%医疗器械300832.SZ新产业8.9~9.24.6~4.837.9~38.216.5~16.7590yoy18%~22%14~18%24%~25%24%~25%创新药及制剂603590.SH康辰药业3.2-3.50.2-0.410.5-111.6-1.856yoy14%-25%-20%-26%60%-80%医疗器械688580.SH伟思医疗1.3~1.40.35~0.384.6~4.71.37~1.441yoy20~30%11~21%42~46%46%~49%医疗器械603658.SH安图生物9.3~11.62.7~3.341.7~4411.7~12.3304yoy-20%~0%-2~23%-6~-1%0~5%医药分销601607.SH上海医药648.3~677-2623.4~2652-605yoy13%~18%-13%~14%-中药600566.SH济川药业28.2~30.46.1~6.793.6~95.825.5~26.1301yoy-9%~-2%5%~15%4%~7%18%~20%创新药及制剂688266.SH泽璟制药1-1.2-4-4.2-132yoy0-20%-33.3%-40%-医疗服务600763.SH通策医疗6.1~6.40.34~0.3628~28.45.5~5.6226yoy5~10%5~10%3~5%0~3%疫苗300122.SZ智飞生物115~12020~21508~51385~861,179yoy10~15%5~10%33~34%13~15%医疗器械688271.SH联影医疗40.6~42.67~8.4114.9~116.917.6~191,094yoy20~26%-7~11%24~27%6%~15%中药600557.SH康缘药业12.9~14.11.5~1.847.8~495~5.2115yoy5%~15%0%~15%10%~13%16%~21%中药603896.SH寿仙谷3~3.41.5~1.658.4~8.82.8~2.962yoy-5%~5%0%~10%2%~6%0%~5%科研试剂688179.SH阿拉丁1.1~1.20.2~0.33.9~4.10.8~0.934yoy0~10%0~10%5~10%——医药分销000950.SZ重药控股173~190.3-756.8~774.1-83yoy0%~10%-12%~14%-原料药300452.SZ山河药辅1.7～2.10.33～0.48.1～8.51.57～1.6432yoy-5%～15.1%-8%～10.9%15%～20%～中药000999.SZ华润三九～63.9～5～～29499行业证券代码证券简称2023Q42023FY总市值（）收入（亿元）归母净利润（亿元）收入（亿元）归母净利润（亿元）yoy～7.1%～0.8%～38.3%～18.4%医疗器械688677.SH海泰新光1.2~1.30.37~0.424.9~5.11.5~1.657yoy-15~-5%-13~-2%3~6%-15~-12%零售药店603939.SH益丰药房62.1~65.43.8~4.2221~224.313.7~14.2407yoy-5%~0%-15%~-5%11%~13%9%~12%零售药店603233.SH大参林57.9~64.31