中国铁路发展回顾与展望

杨浩教授北京交通大学ProfessorYangHao,BeijingJiaotongUniversity2021.4DEVELOPMENTOFCHINESERAILWAYS中国铁路开展回忆与展望.主要内容(Mainpoints)1.改革开放以来中国铁路开展的回忆(DevelopmentofChineserailwaysincethereformandopeningup)2.中国铁路改革与开展中的主要问题(MainproblemsofChineserailway)3.中国铁路运输组织改革与创新的主要思路和对策(MainthoughtsandcountermeasuresofreformingChineserailwayorganization)4.新世纪铁路中长期开展规划(ProgrammingofChineserailwayinthe21stcentury).1改革开放以来中国铁路开展回忆(DevelopmentofChineserailwaysincethereformandopeningup)中国经济增长〔China'seconomicgrowth〕铁路客运增长(Growthofrailwaypassengertransport)客运量(volumeofpassengertraffic)旅客周转量(Turnoverofpassengertraffic)1.1经济和铁路运量的增长及变化趋势〔GrowthanddevelopmenttrendofChineseeconomyandrailwaytrafficvolume〕.旅客平均运距(Averagejourneyperpassengertransport)铁路货运增长〔Growthofrailwayfreighttransport〕货运量(Freighttrafficvolume)货运周转量(turnoveroffreighttraffic)货运平均运距(Averagehauloffreighttraffic)1.1经济和铁路运量的增长及变化趋势(GrowthanddevelopmenttrendofChineseeconomyandrailwaytrafficvolume〕.客运方面(Passengertransport)

客运量分担率(Proportionofpassengervolume)

旅客周转量分担率(Proportionofpassengerturnover)

货运方面(Freighttransport)

货运量分担率(Proportionoffreightvolume)

货物周转量分担率(Proportionoffreightturnover)1.2铁路在全社会运量中分担率的变化(Proportionofrailwaytrafficvolume)

.国铁和地方铁路营业里程(State-ownedandlocalrailwaylengthinoperation)铁路车辆保有量

铁路客车保有量(Quantityofrailwaypassengervehicles)

铁路货车保有量(Quantityofrailwayfreightvehicles)铁路机车总量(Quantityofrailwaylocomotives)1.3铁路网的扩张和机车车辆增长(Developmentofrailwaynetworkandgrowthofrollingstocks).1.4路网技术含量提高(Modernizationofrailway)

铁路复线率(Proportionofdoublelinerailway)

铁路电气化率(Proportionofelectrifiedrailway)

客货列车速度(Speedsofpassengerandfreighttrains)

铁路货车平均牵引重量(Averagetrainsgrossweight).1.5铁路面向市场的改革与开展(Railwayreformanddevelopment)铁路提速(Railwayspeed-up)：铁路六次提速(Thesixthspeed-upofrailway)快速客运网络初步形成(Primaryformationofexpresspassengertransportnetwork)铁路重载运输开展(developmentofheavyhaultraffic):大秦线建设与重载单元列车开行(ConstructionofDatong-Qinhuangdaolineandrunningheavyhaulunittrains)

.繁忙干线开行5000吨重载列车(Running5000theavyhaultrainsonbusymainline)铁路集装箱与快运列车开行(Runningcontainerandexpressfreighttrains)青藏高原铁路建成通车(TheopeningtotrafficoftheQinghai-TibetRailway)铁路管理体制改革〔Railwaymanagementsystemreform)〕.2.中国铁路改革与开展中的主要问题(MainproblemsofChineserailway)2.1铁路管理体制改革和综合交通运输体系建设滞后(Managementsystemreformofrailwayanddevelopmentofcomprehensivetransportsystem)体制改革滞后于其他交通方式(Managementsystemreformofrailwaylagbehindothertransportationmodes)缺乏综合交通运输体系在规划、建设、运营宏观的系统管理(Lackingsystemmanagementofprogramming,constructionandoperation).2.2铁路供需矛盾比较突出(Scarcityoftransportcapacity)：主要干线能力紧张、局部地区进出通道不畅(Scarcityofmainlinestransportcapacityandcongestionofrailwaypassagers)季节运能紧张问题突出、路网规模总量明显缺乏(Scarcityofseasonaltransportcapacityandnetworkscale)2.3铁路技术进步有待加强(Urgentrequirementsofimprovingrailwaytechnology)提高铁路高速、重载、信息化、平安技术水平和人力资源利用水平(Improverailwaytechnologyintheaspectsofhighspeed,heavyload,informatization,safetyandhumanresourceutilization).2.4路网和运能结构失衡(Unbalancedstructureofnetworkandtransportcapacity)客、货混行，造成客、货争能(Mixedpassengerandfreightrailwayresultcontentionfortransportcapacity〕运营与维修矛盾突出(Contradictionofoperationandmaintenance)运输质量不高(Thetransportqualityisnothigh)2.5信息化和现代化管理水平不高(Thelevelofinformatizationandmodernizationisnothigh)先进技术装备运营效率低(Theoperationalefficiencyofadvancedtechnologyequipmentsislow).3.我国铁路运输组织改革与创新的主要思路和对策(MainthoughtsandcountermeasuresofreformingChineserailwayorganization)3.1立足于建立和完善我国综合交通运输体系，加快铁路开展和运输组织改革，大力建设社会化交通运输效劳体系，大力开展旅客联程运输和货物多式联运，发挥铁路在综合交通运输体系中的骨干和主导作用。Establishandimprovethecomprehensivetransportsystem,acceleraterailwaydevelopmentandoperationalreform,constructthesocialtransportservicesystem,developintermodaltransportation,exerttheleadingroleofrailway..3.2充分发挥铁路的比较优势和可持续开展特征，努力开展高速铁路、重载运输、节能运输和清洁运输。Exertcomparativeadvantagesandsustainabledevelopmentcharacteristicsofrailwayanddevelophighspeedrailway,heavyloadtransport,energysavingandcleantransport.3.3加快客运专线建设，形成区域、城际、城市一体化快速轨道交通体系，尽快实现主要繁忙干线客货分线运行，改善铁路运能结构。Accelerateconstructionofspecialrailwaypassengertransportlines,formregional,inter-cityandurbanintegrationrapidrailtransitsystem,separatepassengerandfreighttransportonbusymainlinesassoonaspossible..3.4调整铁路生产力布局，减少技术站数量，封闭运量小的中间站，实行集中化运输，改革设备修程修制，调整机务段、车辆段布局和工务、电务维修养护体系。Adjustdistributionofrailwayproductiveforces,reducetechnicalservicestations,closesmallvolumeintermediatestations,implementcentralizedtransportation,reformequipmentrepairsystem,adjustandmergelocomotivedepots,cardepotsandmaintenancesystemofengineeringandelectricity..3.5加快信息化建设，开展以先进信息技术为支撑的运输过程和平安监控系统、运输方案编制与调度指挥系统，运输管理与市场营销决策系统，电子商务系统等。Accelerateinformatizationdevelopment,developadvancedinformationtechnologysupportingformonitoringsystemoftransportprocessandsafety,transportplanningandschedulingsystem,decision-makingsystemoftransportmanagementandmarketing,e-commercesystems..4.新世纪中国铁路开展规划(ProgrammingofChineserailwayinthe21stcentury)4.1铁路客货运量预测与路网规模需求(Forecastofrailwaypassengerandfreightvolumeanddemandofnetworkscale)2001—20107.5％2011—20207.0％全社会旅客发送量(Totalpassengertrafficvolume)铁路客运量(Railwaypassengervolume)国家开展方案(Nationaldevelopmentplanning)GDP平均增长速度(AveragegrowthspeedofGDP)铁路旅客周转量(Railwaypassengerturnover)亿人次(hundredmillionperson-time)亿人次(hundredmillionperson-time)万亿人公里(thousandbillionpassengerkm)

2010250201.02020450402.1UnitYear.4.1铁路客货运量预测与路网规模需求(Forecastofrailwaypassengerandfreightvolumeanddemandofnetworkscale)2001—20107.5％2011—20207.0％全社会货物发送量(Totalfreighttrafficvolume)铁路货运量(Railwayfreightvolume)国家开展方案(Nationaldevelopmentplanning)GDP平均增长速度(AveragegrowthspeedofGDP)铁路货运周转量(Railwayfreightturnover)亿吨(hundredmillionton)亿吨(hundredmillionton)万亿吨公里(thousandbilliontonkm)

2010170-17528-302.1-2.22020200-21038-402.8-2.9UnitYear.合理布局(Reasonabledistribution)2021年规模(Scalein2021)13万公里(tenthousandkm)12万公里(tenthousandkm)11—13

万公里(tenthousandkm)12万公里左右(about0.1millionkm)路网规模影响因素(FactorsAffectingrailwaynetworkscale):国土面积(nationalarea),人口(population),生产力布局(productiveforcesdistribution),国家运输政策(nationaltransportpolicy)合理结构(Reasonablestructure)合理运输负荷(Reasonableload)4.1铁路客货运量预测与路网规模需求(Forecastofrailwaypassengerandfreightvolumeanddemandofnetworkscale).电气化铁路建设(Electrifiedrailwaydevelopment)可持续开展sustainabledevelopment燃油节省savingfuel环境保护environmentprotection2021年规模为6万km占总里程的50%.Scalein2021willbe50000km,whichis50%oftotalscale电气化铁路electrifiedrailway4.1铁路客货运量预测与路网规模需求(Forecastofrailwaypassengerandfreightvolumeanddemandofnetworkscale).建成在我国交通运输中起骨干作用的大能力铁路通道，形成快速客运网络、重载煤炭运输网络、快速集装箱运输网络，主要技术装备到达国际先进水平，运输能力适应国民经济开展需要。Buildtherailwaypassageswithagreatcapacity,formexpresspassengernetwork,heavyloadcoaltransportnetworkandexpresscontainertransportnetwork,developtheinternationaladvancedleveltechnologyequipments.Railwaytransportcapacitymeetstheneedsofeconomyandsocietydevelopment.4.2铁路开展目标(Railwaydevelopmentgoal)本世纪头20年铁路网建设的总体目标(Railwaynetworkdevelopmentgoaluntil2021).4.2铁路开展目标(Railwaydevelopmentgoal)具体要求(Specificrequirements

)路网规模迅速扩大(Enlargingrailwaynetworkscalerapidly)路网结构更加合理(Morereasonablerailwaynetworkstructure)路网质量极大提高(Greatimprovementsofrailwaynetworkquality)技术水平快速提升(Liftingtechnologyrapidly).4.3铁路网开展规划方案的根本框架(Frameworkofrailwaynetworkdevelopmentprogramming)2021年铁路网规划(RailwaynetworkProgrammingin2021)快速客运网建设以京沪、京广、京哈〔含哈大〕、沪厦深及徐州—兰州、上海—长沙、青岛—太原、沪汉蓉“四纵四横〞客运通道为骨架，包括珠三角、长三角和环渤海3个经济区的城际客运专线，总长1.6万km的快速客运网。ConstructthefourverticalandthefourhorizontalincludingJing-Hu,Jing-Guang,Jing-Ha,Hu-Xia-Shen,Xuzhou-Lanzhou,Shanghai-Changsha,Qingdao-Taiyuan,Hu-Han-RongandintercityspecialpassengertransportlinesinPearlRiverDelta,YangtzeDeltaandaroundBohai.Thetotallengthofexpresspassengertransportnetworkwillbe16000km..国土开发性新线(Landdevelopmentnewlines)以扩大西部路网规模为主，增加铁路路网密度，形成西部铁路网骨架，完善中东部铁路网骨架，全面提高对地区经济开展的适应能力。Extendthewesternrailwaynetworkscalemainly,increaserailwaynetworkdensity,formthewesternrailwaynetworkframework,developthestructuralframeofrailwaynetworksincentralandeasternChina,improvetheoveralladaptabilityofeconomicdevelopment.2021年铁路网规划(RailwaynetworkProgrammingin2021).路网既有线(ExistingRailwayLines)

大力提高煤运通道能力，积极加强路网通道能力，适当提高一般通道能力，配套安排主要枢纽建设。规划既有线增建二线1.3万公里，既有线电气化1.6万公里。Increasetransportcapacityofcoalpassages,developpassagetransportcapacityactively,improvetransportcapacityofcommonpassagesproperly,arrangeconstructionofmainhubs.Theadditionalconstructionlengthofthesecondlineswillbe13000km.Theelectrifiedlengthofexistingrailwaylineswillbe16000km.

2021年铁路网规划(RailwaynetworkProgrammingin2021).联系方式(Affiliation)：

TelO)

E-mail:yanghao@返回ThankYou!.主要年度GDP增长情况

(GDPinmainyears)

ReturnthousandbillionYuan.主要年份客运量

(passengervolumeinmainyears)Returnhundredmillionperson-timerailwayroadsum.主要年份旅客周转量

(passengerturnoverinmainyears)

Returnhundredmillionpassengerkmsumrailwayroadcivilaviation.主要年份旅客运输平均运距统计

(Averagehauldistanceofpassengertransportinmainyears)

Returnkmcivilaviationroadrailwaysum.主要年份货运量

(Freightvolumeinmainyears)

Returnhundredmilliontonsumroadrailway.主要年份货物周转量

(Freightturnoverinmainyears)

Returnhundredmilliontonkmsumwaterwayrailwayroad.主要年份各运输方式的货物平均运距

(Averagehauldistanceoffreighttransportinmainyears)

Returnkmsumcivilaviationrailwayroad.主要年份客运量分担率

(Proportionofpassengervolumeinmainyears)Returnrailwayroad.主要年份旅客周转量分担率(Proportionofpassengerturnoverinmainyears)Returnroadrailway.主要年份货运量分担率(Proportionoffreightvolumeinmainyears)Returnrailwayroad.主要年份货物周转量分担率(Proportionoffreightturnoverinmainyears)Returnrailwayroad.主要年份铁路营业里程(Railwayoperatinglengthinmainyears)Returntenthousandkmtotalrailwaylengthstated-ownedrailway.主要年份客车保有量(Passengervehiclesquantityinmainyears)returnsleeperpercent

passengercars

.主要年份货车保有量(Freightvehiclesquantityinmainyears)Returntenthousand

freightcars

gondolacars

.主要年份铁路机车总量(Quantityoflocomotivesinmainyears)

Returnsteamlocomotivesdiesellocomotiveselectriclocomotives.主要年度铁路复线率(Proportionofdoublelinerailway)Returnnationwidelengthofdoublelinerailwayproportionofdoublelinerailway.主要年份电气化率(Proportionofelectrifiedrailway)Returnnationwidelengthofelectrifiedrailwayproportionofelectrifiedrailway.铁路客运列车速度(Speedsofpassengertrains)technicalspeedtravelingspeed.铁路货运列车速度(Speedsoffreighttrains)Returntechnicalspeedtravelingspeed.铁路货运列车平均牵引总重(Averagetractionweightoffreighttrains)ReturnAveragetractionweightoffreighttrains.大秦线建设与重载单元列车开行(ConstructionofDaqinlineandrunningtrainswithheavyloadelements)

20世纪80年代中期我国自行设计和修建了大秦双线电气化重载运煤专线。该线开行单元式重载列车和组合式重载列车。2002年实现运煤突破1亿吨，2005年实现年运量2亿吨，2007年实现运量3亿吨。大秦线通过实施配套扩能改造和新建工程，大量开行2万吨列车，远期煤炭运输能力将提升到4亿吨。

DaqinlinewasdesignedandbuiltupbyChinainthemiddleof1980s,whichwasthedoublelineandelectrifiedrailwayandrunselementandcombinedheavyhaultrains.Thecoalcarriedbythislineexceededonehundredmilliontonsin2002,exceededtwohundredmilliontonsin2005andrealizedthreehundredmilliontonsin2007.Thislineimplementscapacityexpansionrevampingandnewlybuiltengineeringandmainlyrunsof20000ttrains.Thelong-termcoaltransportcapacityofthislinewillbefourhundredmilliontons..Return.五定班列与行包专列(Fivesetsregulartrainsandparceltrains)

1997年4月1日，我国在28个主要城市和港口间的铁路干线上组织开行以集装箱和高附加值货物为主要货源的远程直达快运列车。Chinarunslongdistancenon-stoptrainsonarterialrailwaylinesamong28citiesandportswhichmainlycarrycontainersandhighadditionalvaluegoods.

在行包运输领域以路外物流企业承包经营的方式组织开行行包快运列车。2005年推出行包专列的升级产品—行邮专列，其中3个特快专列，在京沪穗哈间开行，最高时速160km/h。Chinarailwayoperatesparceltrainsinotherlogisticsenterprisescontractmanagementmannerandrunsparcelspecialtrainsin2005includingthreeexpressspecialparceltrainsamongJing-Hu-Sui-Haatamaximumrunningspeedof160km/h.Return.铁路管理体制改革(Railwaymanagementsystemreform)1999年，铁道部在铁路局全面实行资产经营责任制,建立企业扭亏增盈的机制，提前实现了三年扭亏目标。Ministryofrailwayscarriedoutassetsoperationresponsibilitysystemin1999andestablishedthereversinglossesintoprofitsmechanism.Thereversinglossestargetwasrealizedthreeyearsahead.2004年实施主辅别离，铁路附属的工业公司、勘测设计院、施工企业、物资公司、通信公司移交国资委，所属中小学、医院全部移交地方政府。Theseparationofmainandsupplementwascarriedoutin2004.Industrialcompanies,surveyanddesigninstitutes,constructenterprises,materialcompanies,communicationscompanies,schoolsandhospitalsaffiliatedtotheministryofrailwaysweretransferredtolocalgovernments..调整生产力布局，延长机车运行交路，撤并站段，站段数量减少30％，按照集中化原那么加强作业量大的客货运站能力，优化技术站作业分工。Adjustproductiveforcesdistribution,extentthelocomotiveworkingsystem,cancelandcombinestationsanddepots,reduce30%numb